While we’re still in the “too early to form a concrete opinion” stage of the season, there are some trends in the Lakers play we can identify and analyze. Ball movement, offensive flow: good. Defensive intensity and rebounding: mediocre, especially on the break where it gets downright bad. Let’s take a look at some of the ways the Lakers could maybe start to improve on the solid early-season foundation they’ve put down.
- Getting buckets. As of this post the Lakers are the #4 ranked offense based on overall offensive rating. In the NBA, “offensive rating” refers to a statistic that measures how many points a team scores per 100 possessions, essentially representing their offensive efficiency over the course of a game; a higher offensive rating indicates a more potent offense. The shot profile is balanced, we’re #11 in Assist % (which is pretty solid considering we have 2 elite iso players in AD and LeBron), and we’re improving our assist to turnover ratio by the game (we currently sit at #5) which means we’re maximizing our possessions by not coughing it up but still using the pass effectively, and we’re not addicted to three point shooting nor are we treating it like a toxic asset. We’re #8 in points in the paint which we should be considering that our 2 best players rely on paint points. We’re #9 in scoring in transition. We’re right in my personal sweet spot for three point FGAs at 33.6 and improving on our accuracy from the beginning of the season at 37.4% (making 12.6). In short, when we lose, offense isn’t the problem.
- Getting stops. This isn’t quite as rosy of a picture but the good thing is some of this is very fixable. Our net defensive rating (how many points we give up/100 possessions) is bad, we’re 25th in the league and that’s with AD playing at a high level. Most of that stat was based on the first iteration of the starting five which included D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves in the back court. I’d be curious to see what that number looks like with another 5-10 games of Cam Reddish starting in DLO’s place. Swapping Cam for DLO in the starting five has brought balance to both the bench and starting units, balance we sorely need if we want to get to at least middle of the pack defensively. Cam has been ultra solid on D and taken the open shots that come his way on offense without pressing. Early on, when we were a top 5 or so turnover team, we were giving up a lot more fastbreak points and points off of turnovers. We’ve cleaned up the points of TO’s…but we’re second to last in giving up points on the break. In some ways that’s a little more worrisome as it means teams are just running at us and we’re not adjusting very well off of makes or misses. The good thing is we can work on that as a team and get better on getting back. LeBron will not be a part of that effort and, based on his age and usage, this may be the biggest concern for the regular season. Come playoff time, when the game slows down, I expect this to matter a little less. Depending on matchups.
- The Knecht Effect. After starting the first 8 or 9 games slowly DK4 has come on like gangbusters and is shooting lights out (last night was awesome against the Jazz). Inserting him into the starting 5 along with Cam has led to some of our best basketball and really opens up the door to a debate about if Rui should go back to starting once he’s available. I think the sample size is too small, it’s early in the season and DK hasn’t really been scouted, yet, so there’s still a lot of unknown factors but it’s certainly a conversation worth having. Starting DK (a rookie) would normally come with some defensive ability questions but, while he won’t be in any kind of NBA All Defense convos he can hold his own because he moves his feet rather than reaches. That in and of itself is huge. Add that a willingness to crash the glass at least as much as Rui does and you have a pretty nice problem for the coaches to unravel. I think that DK is probably the better shooter in that his release is quicker and he’s not shy about putting it up but both are efficient and you get a better iso/post player in Hachimura. Ideally a 2nd unit of Hachimura and DLO would be the way to go as that opens up a lot of options to run through both those guys whose overall skill sets are wasted a little bit as starters with our current roster composition. Both DLO and Rui can get their own shots in a variety of ways, strengths that augment the team more if Cam (or possibly Vando when he’s ready) and DK4 can serve as role-players in the starting five. The fact that Dalton has made this into a conversation is awesome.
- The factor that affects everything and every team: injuries. With Wood, Hayes, Rui and Vando out one would expect the lakers to be at a disadvantage. Instead we’ve gone on a 6 game winning streak since our disastrous road trip. Getting those guys back is important and will ultimately make the Lakers better. Since they’re out it’s opened the door for more playing time and a starting spot for Cam and DK4 which has been a revelation on both ends of the court for the reasons above and also opened up some PT for Koloko. I like his energy and he competes well but there’s no denying this guy is both raw and rusty. I don’t need him to shoot threes, either, get good at the three things you need to be good at: rim protection, rebounding and screening. Do those well and you open a lot of doors for the team and us to feel more confident about potentially trading Hayes at some point. Other than that it’s been nice to see LBJ playing in every game so far and to see AD managing his five falls/game and eye injury well.
- Wish the Emirates Cup was a little later in the season. We’re undefeated in Cup games dating back to it’s inception. Need more of ’em lol.