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How the Lakers’ Big Gamble on Talen Horton-Tucker Could Be Critical Win!

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The Lakers refused to trade him for Kyle Lowry and re-signed him rather than Alex Caruso but Talen Horton-Tucker has emerged as the backcourt candidate best suited to pair with Russell Westbrook in the starting lineup.

The Lakers signed Ellington, Monk, Nunn, Bradley, and Bazemore looking for a 3&D backcourt mate for Russell Westbrook only to discover they already had the player they needed in 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker. While the sample size is just three games without LeBron James, THT appears to have hit the ground running, unleashing a remarkable third year breakout after missing the start of the season due to thumb surgery.

In his first three games of the season, Horton-Tucker has averaged 23.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 34.3 minutes per game with solid 49.0/40.0/100% shooting splits and the third best net rating on the team. Talen has not only earned a major spot in the rotation but also has a shot to win starting shooting guard if he continues to play near this level. It’s totally intoxicating to think about the impact this version of THT could have.

Talen will have to prove his 3-point shooting is for real but his confidence is high and he trusts the work he’s put in to improve his mechanics and muscle memory and is not at all surprised that he has gotten off to a great start.

Could Westbrook and Horton-Tucker Be Lakers’ Backcourt of the Future?

Once the Lakers traded for Westbrook, Talen Horton-Tucker went from a likely starter to an unlikely starter as Russ, LeBron, and AD need to be surrounded by proven 3-point shooters, which as a career 28.5% THT is not.

Ironically, the Westbrook trade could have undermined THT’s career with the Lakers. Before the trade, talk was of Talen possibly starting this season. Once the trade was made, the Lakers aggressively signed multiple shooters. Everything suddenly changed for Talen and starting seemed like a long shot. Talk was he and Russ were both were poor shooting, paint-seeking, rim-attacking, ball-dominant guards who couldn’t win playing together.

While three games is not enough to make a reliable judgement, the elite play of Horton-Tucker over the last three games has been extremely encouraging, especially the solid 40% completion rate from deep on 6.7 threes per game. That’s the high volume, high percentage 3-point shooting the Lakers need next to Westbrook. THT’s Kawhi-sized hands, 7′ 1″ wingspan, low center of gravity, and physicality at both ends make him a perfect fit next to Russ.

In the three games played with THT, Russ averaged 19.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 10.0 assists in 33.7 minutes per game with 43.5/31.5/81.3% shooting splits. 10 assists and 4.7 turnovers per game is mostly Good Russ. Over the three games, Russ and THT combined to average 42.6 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 12 assists. They shot 36.1% on 12 threes per game and were two of just three Lakers players with positive plus/minus and net ratings.

While Russ and Talen won’t get the same touches and opportunities when LeBron returns, they could be one of those unexpected outside-the-box pairings that could become a Lakers’ championship staple at both ends.

What does a Westbrook/Horton-Tucker Backcourt Mean for the Lakers?

The Westbrook/Horton-Tucker Lakers backcourt sets the stage for the Lakers to recreate the physically dominant small ball lineup they used to win their 17th NBA championship over the Miami Heat in the bubble a year ago.

Rob Pelinka and Frank Vogel’s vision for this Lakers team is similar to the vision they had for the championship team except more offense. Basically, the Lakers want to physically dominate opponents with size and athleticism. Pairing the 6′ 4″ 234 lb Talen Horton-Tucker with the 6′ 4″ 200 lb Russell Westbrook gives the Lakers a more physical and athletic backcourt than this year’s Westbrook/Bradley backcourt or the KCP/Green bubble backcourt.

Of course, to make this work, Russ and Talen need to shoot better from deep than they did last year, when Westbrook shot 31.5% from three on 4.8 attempts per game and Horton-Tucker 28.2% on 2.9 attempts per game. That’s why the injuries have been so frustrating because they’ve prevented the player for whom the offensive and defensive schemes were created from playing. But LeBron is close to returning and Ariza not far behind.

Aside from pairing two alpha dog rim-attackers who can regularly contribute 20 points per game, Russ and THT bring an elite level of physicality on defense Ellington, Monk, Nunn, Bradley, Bazemore, or Reaves could not. With Westbrook at the one, Horton-Tucker at the two, James at the three, Ariza at the four, and Davis at the five, the Lakers would have five players with the athleticism and physicality to dominate their opposing counterpart.

Even the Lakers didn’t expect Talen Horton-Tucker to have elevated his game to this level, although they obviously knew it was coming. Their big gamble to keep him instead of trading him may have just started paying off. What I love most about Horton-Tucker going off is the news has been lost in the articles by the gloating anti-Lakers media over the team’s early season struggles. They didn’t even notice yet that Talen Horton-Tucker has arrived.

Westbrook, Horton-Tucker, James, Ariza, and Davis would be a bully ball starting lineup that could play the style of rotating defense the Lakers’ championship team did but with a lot more offensive firepower.

Lakers’ Starting Lineups and Depth Chart Slowly Starting to Crystallize

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While it’s still early and we haven’t even seen some players play yet, we’re starting to see enough to make a reasonable projection how the Lakers’ starting lineup and depth chart will look come December and January.

While integrating superstars LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook has been challenging, the Lakers still appear to be committed to playing all three superstars to both start and close games and halves. While Frank Vogel hedges his comments by saying there will be times when the Lakers will play two bigs, he also appears firmly committed to Anthony Davis starting and closing games and playing major minutes at center.

Let’s take a look at the Lakers’ roster to see who are favorites to start and the likely candidates to backup the starters when everybody is healthy in December and January heading towards the February 10th trade deadline.

Lakers’ Projected STARTING LINEUP Once Everybody Is Available

With Russell Westbrook at the one, LeBron James at the four, and Anthony Davis at the five locked in to start and finish games and halves, the Lakers’ starters at the two and three will need to provide key spacing and defense.

While Avery Bradley has been starting at shooting guard, it’s unlikely he will be able to hold onto the starting job once everybody is healthy. Like Kent Bazemore, Avery’s future is likely to be a defensive specialist off the bench. That leaves Wayne Ellington, Malik Monk, Kendrick Nunn, and Austin Reaves as the remaining candidates to start at shooting guard. Reaves is a rookie and Nunn hasn’t even played yet and is best fit to backup Westbrook.

That leaves Ellington and Monk as the remaining two top candidates to start. Ellington is kind of the favorite and has slowly been shooting like his resume while Monk is the more versatile option as an uncanny three-level scorer. What will separate the two in coach Vogel’s mind is defense. Monk’s 99.3 defensive rating is the best for any Lakers player who has played in six or more games compared to Ellington’s 8th ranked 107.5 defensive rating.

Talen Horton-Tucker has been starting at small forward and will likely be given the opportunity to retain that role going forward because, while he is only 6′ 4,” he has a 7′ 1″ wingspan and physical strength to play the three. Horton-Tucker’s biggest issue starting alongside James, Davis, and Westbrook is his ability to space the floor with 3-point shooting. The Lakers are giving THT a chance before the trade deadline to prove he can start.

Come December and January, I would not be surprised to see the Lakers’ fivesome that starts and closes games and halves to be Russell Westbrook, Malik Monk, Talen Horton-Tucker, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis.

Lakers’ Projected DEPTH CHART Once Everybody Is Available

Just as LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook were locks for the starting lineup, Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard are sure to be the primary backups for LeBron James at the four and Anthony Davis at the five.

Who will be the primary backups for the one, two, and three is less certain. Rondo’s recent excellent play has reinserted him into the competition with younger Kendrick Nunn to be Westbrook’s primary backup at point guard. While Nunn will get most of the backup minutes at the one, Vogel’s will also give Rajon enough spot minutes to keep him involved and ready to turn into Playoff Rondo once the Lakers finish the season and get into the playoffs.

Assuming Malik Monk starts at the two, Wayne Ellington should beat Avery Bradley out for the primary backup at shooting guard. Vogel still likes Bradley so he’ll get spot minutes as as on-ball defender and spot up shooter. Since Ariza has only played the four the last four seasons and lacks the footspeed to play the three, the Lakers’ backups for the undersized Horton-Tucker at the three will fall to the more undersized Bazemore or Reaves.

Frankly, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kent Bazemore, and Austin Reaves are really shooting guards masquerading as small forwards. The Lakers have a serious shortage of bigger (6′ 6″ to 6′ 8″) 3&D wings that needs to be addressed. Expect the Lakers to keep a close eye on the emerging trade market as the ‘No Trade’ restrictions for Kendrick Nunn ($5M/Year) expire on December 15, 2022 and for Talen Horton-Tucker ($15M/Year) on January 15, 2022.

The Lakers are going to have to make a trade for a bigger 3&D wing like Jerami Grant or Cam Reddish to fix their roster imbalance. The problem is their only major trading chips are Talen Horton-Tucker and Kendrick Nunn. Players like Monk or Ellington, while not making large salaries, still have value for teams needing shooting. The Lakers also don’t have Nunn’s or Monk’s Bird rights, so trading them for the right player could be appealing.

In the end, the Lakers have a serious roster imbalance that will require a major trade at the deadline to fix. Fortunately, the Lakers do have some valuable trading chips to swap to get the bigger 3&D wing they need.

Right now, the Lakers are struggling because of injuries and the trade for Russell Westbrook caused them to undergo what is the equivalent of a metamorphosis from a traditional two-big team to one-big small ball team. Transforming the team to small ball with AD at the five for the entire regular season was hard enough without integrating eleven new players. The injuries to James, Davis, Ariza, Nunn, Ellington, and THT have not helped.

Considering the challenge, the Lakers could easily have a worse record than 8–7. The team just needs to get healthy. With LeBron slated to return Friday against the Celtics and Ariza soon to practice, the Lakers will be fine.

Why Breaking Up Superstar Big Three Could Be a Smart Move for the Lakers!

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Could the solution to the fit and spacing problems the Lakers are having with lineups with their superstar big three be as simple as breaking them up and playing them in pairs to have two superstars on the court at all times?

There’s no question Frank Vogel faces serious challenges trying to find two complementary starters who can defend at a high level, shoot and make the three, and fit with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook. That’s not an easy challenge with a healthy roster and the Lakers’ injuries only make it more daunting. At the heart of the problem is the enigmatic Russell Westbrook and the perpetual quest to figure out with whom he fits.

Here’s the gist of where I’m going. Basketball in essence is a two-man game. That applies to both role players and superstars. Creating chemistry and building a winning roster around two superstars is easier than with three. The Lakers should optimize Russ by pairing him alone with James or Davis rather than with both of them. That would simplify building winning lineups and enable the Lakers to have two superstars on the court all the time.

So let’s take a look at whether it makes sense for the Lakers to prioritize two superstars on the court for the entire game versus trying to make clumsy overcrowded three-superstar starting and closing lineups work.

1. The Two Superstars On the Court All of the Time Full Option

This is the option that makes the most sense for the Lakers as it still has all three superstars starting and closing games while also having at least two superstars on the court all of the time between the game start and close.

We’ve seen how Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis can play winning basketball without LeBron James the last two games. If Vogel started AD at the five, the Lakers might have won both games easily versus in overtime. With LeBron injured, Vogel simply has more options and can more easily put together winning five-man lineups around two rather than three superstars. Suddenly, there’s opportunities for Monk and Ellington to earn minutes.

The Lakers would still start and close games with all three superstars but would only play two superstars to end first half or start second half and use those minutes to have two superstars on the court for the rest of the game. Having two superstars on the court for the rest of the game is a better use of Russell Westbrook than giving him more minutes with LeBron James and Anthony Davis in cramped lineups with questionable defense or spacing.

The Lakers would be a better balanced team with Russ playing 12 minutes more per game with LeBron and AD against the other team’s reserves than struggling to fit with James and Davis in a superstar big three lineup.

2. The Two Superstars On the Court All of the Time Lite Option

Of course, there is another option should the Lakers want to avoid the difficulty of building lineups around three superstars entirely, which is to cut Westbrook’s minutes and pull him from the starting and closing lineups.

That’s not something I expect the Lakers to do but could be an option if Russ continues to struggle playing alongside LeBron and AD. It at least gives the Lakers a optional off-ramp short of trading Russ if he continues to struggle. In other words, instead of the Lakers playing all three superstars together to start and end each half, why not think out-of-the-box and instead prioritize always having two superstars on the court for all 48 minutes of the game?

Basketball by its nature is a two-man game and building a rotation featuring lineups headed by LeBron and AD, LeBron and Russ, and Russ and AD could be smarter than trying to force a LeBron, AD, and Russ lineup to work. In the last two wins, we’ve seen it’s easier to build balanced five-man lineups with two rather than three superstars. The Lakers might be a better team by focusing on two instead of three superstars and limiting Russ’ minutes.

Two superstars on court the entire game could be a smarter way to take advantage of having a superstar big three than trying to build winning lineups surrounding three superstars with elite defense and shooting.

How Trading for Myles Turner Could Resolve Vogel and Davis Center Issues

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Could the Los Angeles Lakers trading for Myles Turner resolve the ongoing internal conflicts caused by head coach Frank Vogel wanting to play two bigs and superstar center Anthony Davis prefering to play power forward?

While the Lakers initially committed to moving Davis to the five to make the trade for Westbrook work, unexpected early season injuries and Vogel’s stubborn reluctance to play small ball have so far undermined the decision. Frank’s always been true believer that defense starts with rim protection, which is why his first instincts are always to go big rather than small, despite the Lakers having protected the rim better when playing small than big.

While Anthony Davis is better playing center than power forward, let’s examine whether the Lakers could be better if they were to trade for Turner so AD could play his preferred four and Vogel his preferred two bigs.

What Are the Pros and Cons of a Turner and Davis Twin Towers?

Trading for Myles Turner and starting him at center could be a franchise defining move that would stabilize, diversify, and upgrade the Lakers’ front court and make them championship contenders for the next five years.

Aside from enabling Vogel to play two bigs and Davis to play the four, Turner at the five would immediately give the Lakers the defensive rim protector and offensive floor spacer they’ve been trying to acquire the last three years. Adding the 25-year old Turner’s league third best 2.7 blocks per game and 41.2% 3-point shooting on over five threes per game would transform the Lakers’ defense and offense for this season and the foreseeable future.

Suddenly, the Lakers would have their own version of a twin towers front court with the 25-year old Turner and the 28-year old Davis who could put a lid on the basket defensively while still being able to play five-out offensively. Starting Turner at the five would enable Davis to limit his minutes and avoid the banging of playing center and let James focus on playing point forward and becoming the elite 3&D wing the Lakers have desperately needed.

The Lakers’ roster right now badly needs bigs who can protect the paint and stretch the floor like Myles Turner instead of low post traditional centers like DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard who can be played off the court.

Will Turner Be Available and Do the Lakers Have Enough Assets?

The Lakers have long coveted Myles Turner as the perfect defensive rim protector and offensive floor stretcher. The upcoming trade deadline may be the perfect opportunity for the Lakers to make a mega trade for Turner.

The Indiana Pacers are off to a 3–7 start under returning head coach Rick Carlisle, which makes them 13th out of 15 teams in the Eastern Conference, still struggling with the difficult on-court fit between Sabonis and Turner. While Carlisle was brought in to make the Pacers’ two 7-foot 250 pound centers work, he’s already started to stagger Turner’s and Sabonis’ time on the floor to avoid those troublesome, inefficient twin towers lineups.

Unless something changes before the trade deadline, the Pacers are almost guaranteed to look to move Turner since Sabonis is the franchise player. With strong interest in Turner, could the Lakers make a competitive offer? The answer is the Lakers could and should go all-in for Myles Turner. The Lakers should offer Talen Horton-Tucker ($10M/Year), Kendrick Nunn ($5M/Year), and Malik Monk ($2.6M/Year) for Myles Turner ($18M/Year).

Next to LeBron James, Myles Turner is the best possible fit next to Anthony Davis in the league today. He is the perfect front court mate to play next to AD and lead the Lakers to championships for the next five years.

How Would Turner Trade Impact Lakers’ Championship Quest?

Trading for Myles Turner is the Lakers’ guaranteed ticket to a championship. He not only makes the Lakers a juggernaut offensively and defensively but also saves wear-and-tear on injury prone LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Myles Turner could have a bigger impact on the Lakers’ championship hopes than Russell Westbrook because he helps solve some of the serious floor spacing and perimeter defensive problems caused by the trade for Russ. Integrating Turner would be child’s play compared to integrating Westbrook. Myles’ 41% 3-point shooting will help the Lakers’ starting lineup spacing while his 2.7 blocks per game will help their perimeter defense.

While the Lakers would give up the 20-year Horton-Tucker, the 26-year old Nunn, and the 23-year old Monk, they would be getting the durable 25-year old Myles Turner, who has averaged 65 games over his six-year pro career. While giving up a home grown star like THT is painful, he’s still two or three years away from being a starter and Nunn and Monk don’t have Bird rights so there is no realistic way the Lakers would be able to keep them.

What it comes down to is the Lakers would be trading the tomorrow of 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker for the today and tomorrow of 25-year old Myles Turner and an improved chance to win their 18th championship.

Rebuilding the Lakers’ Starting Lineup With Two Key Trades at the Deadline!

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With superstars Russell Westbrook at the one, LeBron James at the four, and Anthony Davis at the five, the Los Angeles Lakers desperately need to find starters at the two and three who can space the floor and play elite defense.

The Lakers originally hoped Wayne Ellington might start at the two and Trevor Ariza at the three but both have been injured and have yet to play. There have also been concerns about Wayne’s defense and Trevor’s health. Right now, Vogel has settled on Avery Bradley and Kent Bazemore to start at the two and three with the Lakers’ three superstars. Whether they can hold onto those jobs when Ellington and Ariza get healthy is up for debate.

With three superstars who are not elite 3-point shooters and a defense first head coach like Vogel, the challenge facing the Lakers is to find starters at the two and three who are both elite defenders and long range shooters. Whether Vogel can find the right starters at the two and three with the shooting and defense to complement James, Davis, and Westbrook from the collection of aged shooters the Lakers signed as free agents is doubtful.

In the end, the Lakers need younger, more talented starters at the two and three than Bradley and Bazemore or Ellington and Ariza. Here are two key trades that would dramatically upgrade the Lakers’ starting lineup.

1. TRADE WITH BOSTON CELTICS FOR MARCUS SMART

With Boston’s early struggles and Marcus Smart’s dissatisfaction with his role, could the Lakers lure the Celtics to trade the 27-year old shooting guard for 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker and 23-year old Malik Monk?

Giving up two promising young stars in their early 20’s would be a high price for an elite defender and average 3-point shooter like Smart but Horton-Tucker is still two years away and Monk too expensive for Lakers to re-sign. The Lakers are in full win-now mode with the Westbrook trade and adding Smart as a lockdown defender and starter at the two would enhance Los Angeles’ chances of winning another championship in the LeBron era.

As a member of the 2019 and 2020 NBA All-Defensive First Teams, Marcus Smart could be the perfect shooting guard for the Lakers considering his elite defense. He’s not a great 3-point shooter but is not afraid to let shots fly. Smart would give the Lakers the elite defensive stopper at guard they currently do not have. While Marcus only shot 34.7% from three the last three seasons, he did still average almost 5.5 3-point attempts per game

Tempting the Celtics to trade an elite defender like Smart would be costly. Offering a package of two budding young stars in Horton-Tucker and Monk should be enough to convince the Celtics to move Marcus Smart.

2. TRADE WITH ATLANTA HAWKS FOR CAM REDDISH

With the Atlanta Hawks hesitating to give Cam Reddish an extension, the door may be open for the Lakers to offer a straight up trade of combo guard Kendrick Nunn for 6′ 8,” 217 lb 4-year veteran small forward Cam Reddish.

Since the Lakers will likely not be able to re-sign Nunn, whom they signed with their $5 million MLE this offseason, flipping him for the bigger Reddish whom they would be able to re-sign would be a smart move going forward. The Lakers’ greatest weakness is a lack of wings who have the size to defend the bigger wing scorers in the league like Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Jayson Tatum, Brandon Ingram, Chris Middleton, and DeMar DeRozan.

Cam Reddish is the perfect defense first candidate to start at the three just as Marcus Smart is the perfect defense first candidate to start at the two. Both are elite defenders but high volume, low percentage 3-point shooters. Reddish has great potential defensively and if he continues to improve his 3-point shooting, he could become an invaluable starter on a championship Lakers team. For sure, he would give the Lakers an elite wing defender.

With the Hawks having issued expensive extensions to Trae Young, John Collins, Kevin Huerter, and Clint Capela, there’s a good chance the Lakers could trade Kendrick Nunn for Cam Reddish to be their starting three.

SMART AND REDDISH WOULD UPGRADE LAKERS STARTERS

Imagine a new lethal Lakers’ starting lineup for the second half of the season with Russell Westbrook at the one, Marcus Smart at the two, Cam Reddish at the three, LeBron James at the four, and Anthony Davis at the five.

Trading for Marcus Smart and Cam Reddish would give the Los Angeles Lakers a dramatic upgrade at starting shooting guard and small forward over Avery Bradley and Kent Bazemore or Wayne Ellington and Trevor Ariza. More importantly, the trade would only cost three young players, two of whom the Lakers would not be able to re-sign next summer, and allow them to keep Bradley, Bazemore, Ellington, and Ariza as valuable backups.

Having traded THT and Monk for Smart and Nunn for Reddish, the Lakers would then have 14 active players on their roster and one opening. Here is what their depth chart would look like for the second half of the season:

PG: WESTBROOK, Rondo, Reaves
SG: SMART, Ellington, Bradley
SF: REDDISH, Bazemore
PF: JAMES, Anthony, Ariza
CE: DAVIS, Howard, Jordan

Trading for Smart and Reddish dramatically upgraded the Lakers’ starting lineup, especially defensively. They essentially replaced two starting role players with two elite defenders better equipped to win a championship. The Lakers also replaced two key young players in Nunn and Monk whom they were sure to lose to free agency next summer with two tradeable young players who are better fits for what the Lakers need going forward.

Rob Pelinka knew the roster he gave Frank Vogel was a flawed roster that would have to be corrected at the trade deadline or buyout market. Right now, Smart and Reddish top the Lakers’ list of likely trade targets.