As their strategy to go big and pursue a modern starting center like Myles Turner, Kristaps Porzingis, or Naz Reid slowly implodes, the Lakers would be smart to try to steal center Brook Lopez from the Milwaukee Bucks.
Realistically, Brook Lopez may be the Lakers’ last chance to acquire a modern starting center this summer. The Pacers may be unwilling to trade Turner and Porzingis and Reid have already been traded to competitors. The Lakers believe their conference finals run ended partly due to their lack of positional size advantage against the Nuggets. Starting Lopez at center and moving James and Davis down a position would solve that.
While Lopez is 35 and injury prone, he’s also coming off what could be his career best season, shooting 37.4% from deep, blocking the 3rd most shots in the league, and finishing a close second to Jaren Jackson, Jr. for DPOY. Frankly, Brook is not only a perfect a fit for what L.A. needs at center as he can stretch the floor and protect the rim but now he may also now be the last available, affordable modern starting center left this summer.
Let’s look at what Brook Lopez’ is worth today as a free agent, whom the Lakers will be competing with to acquire him, and what the Lakers sign-and-trade deal, depth chart, and salary cap will look like post-trade.
What Is 35-Year Old Brook Lopez’ Market Value?
Lopez just finished a 4-year $52 million contract with the Milwaukee Bucks, who are at a franchise crossroads with Mike Budenholzer being fired and both Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton hitting unrestricted free agency.
Brook averaged 15.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 2.5 blocks, 0.5 steals in 30.4 minutes per game while shooting 53.1% from the field, 37.4% from deep, and 78.4% from the line on 11.5 shots, 4.7 threes, and 2.4 free throws. Were he 25-years old rather than 35-years old, Lopez would be worth a max salary. Regardless of age, Brook had a year for which he deserves a raise from the $13 million per year he earned in his last contract with the Bucks.
The maximum deal Brook can sign with the Bucks is $54 million over three years due to the “over-38-rule,” which prevents him from signing a deal for four years or longer since he would turn 38-years old during that contract. Right now, it’s unknown whether the Bucks are going to bring back Lopez and/or Middleton. Milwaukee knows their core is getting older and the first round exit in the playoffs could motivate the front office to get younger.
Most NBA prognosticators project 35-year old Brook Lopez’ contract value as between $40 to $60 million over three years but the Milwaukee Bucks are rumored to want to sign him to a 2-year deal for between $30 to $35 million. The Athletic’s John Hollinger’s BORD$ value for Lopez is $16,241,034 though he says: “I don’t think the money gets quite as low as this, but maybe something in the range of $55 million to $60 million over three years?”
The Los Angeles Lakers have a unique opportunity to steal Brook Lopez from the Milwaukee Bucks and other NBA teams. Brook Lopez is likely going to command a fully guaranteed 3-year contract for $50-60 million.
Who Are Lakers’ Competition For Brook Lopez?
The NBA teams listed as free agent destinations for Brook Lopez include the Houston Rockets, Sacramento Kings, Dallas Mavericks, Atlanta Hawks, New Orleans Pelicans, Los Angeles Clippers, and Los Angeles Lakers.
The Bucks have to be considered to be the favorites to re-sign Brook Lopez and it would not be a complete surprise if they made a move before free agency to lock him up similar to what the Timberwolves did with Naz Reid. Of the other teams interested in signing Lopez in free agency, the Rockets, Spurs, Thunder, Hawks, and Kings can all create enough cap space to sign Brook Lopez in free agency this summer for 3-years and up to $60 million.
While the Lakers could make moves to pursue Lopez in free agency, it makes more sense for them to pursue a sign-and-trade for him even though that would hardcap them at $172.7 million total payroll for next season. The difference is the Lakers would have to renounce D’Angelo Russell to create the cap space to sign Brook Lopez as free agent, which would then limit the Lakers to only being able to offer Russell the $12.4 million MLE.
Bottom line, there’s going to be no shortage of NBA teams interested in signing Brook Lopez in free agency next week but the big question is how many will be willing to give 35-year old center a guaranteed 3-year deal? The fact that Brook Lopez played for and has great respect for Lakers’ head coach Darvin Ham during his years as an assistant for Mike Budenholzer on the Milwaukee Bucks could give the Lakers an edge over other teams.
Brook Lopez is likely looking at the last contract of his career so there’s always the chance he will chase the most money. In any event, the Lakers need to offer him three years and $60 million guaranteed to sign him.
How Do Lakers Look After Brook Lopez Trade?
While the Lakers could renounce players they do not plan to keep to create cap space to sign Brook Lopez to a guaranteed 3-year $60 million free agent contract, the cleaner and smarter route would be to sign-and-trade for him.
While signing-and-trading for Lopez would hard cap the Lakers’ total team salaries at $172.3 million for next season, they would still be able to bring back the core of the roster that made it to the Western Conference Finals. James, Davis, Vanderbilt, and Christie were under contract. Lakers used Bird rights to re-sign Russell, Reaves, and Hachimura and the BAE to bring back Lonnie Walker IV. Along with Lopez, that’s a solid 9-man rotation.
Note this scenario assumes the Lakers plan to rely on the acumen of their scouting staff to fill out the roster with more less-expensive two-way and undrafted players and fewer more-expensive minimum-salary veterans. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the salary cap that shows the salary for each player next season and the total team payroll and then compares that total to the two luxury tax aprons and calculates how much the team is under.
The Lakers have a unique opportunity to approach Brook Lopez with a proposed 3-year $60 million sign-and-trade to return to Los Angeles as the team’s starting center with a special lifetime Gold Pass to Disneyland.
With the Nuggets officially crowned and the Warriors and Suns building superteams, the Lakers’ path to this season’s NBA championship is likely to be tougher and more difficult and challenging than faced last season. While the Lakers plan to bring back most of the core from their conference finals team and have pledged to upgrade the team to championship caliber. The surest and easiest way to do that is to sign-and-trade for Brook Lopez.
Signing-and-trading for Brook Lopez and adding him to the core of their conference finals team is the kind of move that should transform the Los Angeles Lakers into the favorite to win the 2023-24 NBA Championship.