Can L.A. overcome Denver’s clutch domination?

Lakers-Nuggets playoff preview and predictions: Can L.A. overcome Denver’s clutch domination? https://t.co/fWax9cCC7N

— LakerTom (@LakerTom) April 20, 2024

It’s been 490 days since the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Denver Nuggets.

The last time the Lakers defeated the Nuggets was Dec. 16, 2022, in Los Angeles. Anthony Davis exited early after injuring his right foot in the first half. Russell Westbrook posted a triple-double. Los Angeles started three small guards (Lonnie Walker IV, Patrick Beverley and Dennis Schröder). At 12-16, a Western Conference finals run seemed far-fetched for a struggling Lakers group.

A lot has changed since. The Lakers remade their roster at the 2023 trade deadline and went on to the conference finals, where the Nuggets swept them. The Lakers ran it back this past summer with largely the same roster, upgrading along the fringes with the likes of Gabe Vincent, Taurean Prince and Jaxson Hayes. After a 24-25 start, the Lakers closed the season 23-10 and defeated the New Orleans Pelicans in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 Play-In to earn a rematch with the defending champions.

The one thing that hasn’t changed has been Denver’s dominance over the Lakers, particularly in the clutch. The No. 2 Nuggets have won eight straight games against the No. 7 Lakers, with five of those games being decided within the final five minutes. Denver enters this first-round matchup as heavy favorites. For many, the Lakers would be lucky to get a game.

But the Lakers are confident in their chances of pulling off the unthinkable. They’ve won 12 of 15 games, are the healthiest they’ve been all season and have developed an elite offense that should be able to match Denver’s shot-for-shot, at least for stretches. The Nuggets last beat the Lakers six weeks ago, just as Los Angeles was rounding into form and forging its identity. From the Lakers’ vantage point, the Nuggets haven’t seen this version of Los Angeles yet.

“It’s back to 0-0,” Lakers head coach Darvin Ham said Tuesday in New Orleans. “Obviously, they’ve had a ton of success against our ball club. But there’s always a new day.

”The big Lakers question: Can they hold up against Denver in the clutch?

Lakers-Nuggets games follow a familiar script: The Lakers hang around until the last few minutes, at which point the Nuggets eviscerate them with elite two-way execution. Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray make all the big shots. The Lakers’ offense stagnates and struggles. The Nuggets win. Denver has outscored L.A. 45-23 in the 18 clutch minutes over the past eight matchups. (Those are defined as when the score is within five points with five or fewer minutes remaining.) More specifically, the Nuggets have outscored the Lakers 27-10 in seven clutch minutes this season and 28-13 in 11 clutch minutes in the 2023 Western Conference finals.

Those numbers don’t fully encapsulate the degree to which Denver has dominating the non-clutch final minutes as well (i.e. if Denver is up by more than six points in the final five minutes). Over the final five minutes of each of the three regular-season games this season, Denver has outscored Los Angeles 47-27. Frankly, the crunch-time gap has only grown wider since the conference finals. There is undoubtedly a psychological hurdle the Lakers will have to overcome to win this series.

The Nuggets’ starting and closing lineup — Jokić, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Murray — has an identity on both ends of the floor, with clear roles for each player. They’ve played more minutes than any lineup in the NBA over the past two seasons, which gives them a continuity edge over every opponent. The ball flows through Jokić and Murray, who have the best two-man game in the league. Porter and Caldwell-Pope cut, move and spread the floor. Gordon hangs along the dunker spot on the baseline, awaiting lobs, duck-ins and offensive rebounds. Defensively, Caldwell-Pope and Gordon handle the primary perimeter assignments, with Jokić, Murray and Porter playing solid team defense with their length and anticipation.

The Lakers don’t have that same luxury. They just settled on a starting lineup on Feb. 3. They’re missing their sixth-best player and best wing defender in Jarred Vanderbilt.

They don’t even have an obvious closing group. James, Davis, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura should be locks against the Nuggets. Those were Los Angeles’ four best players against Denver in the conference finals. Beyond them, that fifth spot is open. D’Angelo Russell should be the choice, though he offers the Nuggets a clear target defensively. If the Lakers put him on Caldwell-Pope, that puts Reaves on either Murray or Porter, and could complicate how the Lakers defend the lethal Jokić-Murray two-man actions.

One easy adjustment for the Lakers is to not close games with Taurean Prince and Cam Reddish defending Murray, which they did in the regular season. Reddish shouldn’t be playing in this series. Prince shouldn’t be closing. Neither should be defending Murray. Murray scored a combined 25 points on 11-for-21 shooting when Prince and Reddish were his primary defenders this season.

This is far too easy of a bucket for Murray in a two-possession game.

Reddish could do a better job fighting over the screen. Reaves and Reddish were clearly unsure if they should switch or if Reaves should just bide time for Reddish to recover. Davis, the last line of defense, shockingly turns his back away from Murray because he’s so afraid of Jokić rolling to the rim behind the play. One Denver double stagger action (two players screening for Murray at a slight angle) caused multiple Lakers miscues.

Interestingly, the Lakers have been one of the best clutch teams in the NBA this season. They have the best win percentage (24-9, .727), the eighth-best offense, 13th-best defense and the ninth-best net rating in games where the score is within five points with five or fewer minutes left. The Nuggets, in contrast, are third in offense, second in defense and first in net rating.

In theory, L.A. should fare better in the clutch than in previous games. The key will be limiting their mistakes, of which there have been far too many.

“Have to play mistake-free basketball,” James said. “Make it tough on them. They’re going to try to make it tough on us, obviously.”

The big Nuggets question: How do they slow this version of LeBron?

Compared to last season, the Lakers’ biggest advantage entering this series is having this version of James.

Since the All-Star break, the 39-year-old James is averaging 27.5 points, 7.6 rebounds and 9.5 assists to go along with shooting splits of 58.4 percent from the field, 45 percent from 3 and 76.9 percent from the free-throw line. His 3-point shooting, in particular, is at an entirely different level than it was last season — and especially where it was entering the Nuggets series. This season, James is shooting a career-best 41 percent on 3s. In last season’s conference finals, James shot just 26.9 percent on 3s.

That 14 percent difference is significant. James is unlikely to replicate his 41-percent mark in a physically grueling series, but if he can remain an above-average pull-up and catch-and-shoot weapon, the Nuggets will have to adjust their typical coverages.

The Lakers often spam James-Reaves pick-and-rolls late in games to target Murray, who Denver often tries to hide on Reaves. The Nuggets will usually go under the screen, which gives James enough time and space to gather and launch. If he’s hitting that shot consistently, it’ll open up more driving opportunities, which could lead to more paint points, fouls and kick-out 3s.

The Nuggets present a difficult challenge with Gordon, who’s one of the few wing defenders capable of matching James physically. Gordon is taller than James and just as strong, quick and athletic. He has a knack for cutting off James’ driving lanes, recovering well around screens and bumping James off course on the way to the rim.

Behind him, the Nuggets have one of the smartest team defenses in the league. Denver rotates on time, rarely making a mistake, in part because of their continuity and thousands of reps together. Jokić isn’t a liability the way he’s often labeled. He leads all centers in deflections and is among the league leaders overall.

Still, James is healthier than he was last season at the same point. He has his trademark burst and athleticism. He wasn’t making this type of play in last season’s conference finals. This clip looks like it’s at two times the speed.

James has made it apparent in recent days that he’s ready to play as much and as hard as the Lakers need him to this series.

“Ain’t no more pace,” James said. “Pace yourself for what? It’s now a sprint. It’s a sprint now. We already went through the marathon. I’ll do whatever it takes. I mean, all the percentages and all that s—, it’s out the window. The season’s over. So it’s about just winning. Win the game.”