Can L.A. go center-less against Minnesota’s frontline?

April 18, 2025 at 8:58 am

FROM THE ABOVE ARTICLE:

The big Lakers question: Can their center-less lineups hold up?

Trading Davis and rescinding the Mark Williams trade has settled the Lakers on a center-less identity. While Jaxson Hayes has been largely impressive and outperformed his veteran’s minimum contract, the Lakers are often at their best with some frontline combination of James, Hachimura, Dorian Finney-Smith and Jarred Vanderbilt. All four players can switch between centers, wings and even guards, and the former three provide a level of spacing that can bend the best defenses until they break.

The Lakers have faced some of the better two-big teams in the league recently — Oklahoma City, Houston, Memphis and Dallas — and dictated the terms of engagement. In all four matchups, the opponent was forced to adjust to the Lakers’ smaller groups, and not the other way around. That’ll be the goal for Los Angeles against Minnesota, which rotates its three bigs — Gobert, Randle and Naz Reid — in various combinations.

The key for the Lakers will be punishing the Wolves for staying big, testing the foot speed, versatility and ability to cover ground defensively of the Wolves’ bigs. Defensively, the Lakers will need to play physically, box out around the rim with multiple players and ensure the Wolves’ guards and wings aren’t beating them to 50-50 balls.

“You just got to play hard as s—,” Austin Reaves said of the Lakers’ smaller lineups playing the Wolves’ bigger groups. “Every possession, you win by the smallest margin or you lose the smallest margin in the playoffs as we could tell from last year. Obviously, ain’t the same team, but if you go back and watch last year’s games, one thing here and there could have changed the whole series. We can’t take possessions off.”

The Lakers have their five-man closing unit: Finney-Smith, Hachimura, James, Reaves and Dončić. All five players should play 30-plus minutes and close games together. They don’t want to veer away from that. The group’s ability to replicate its regular-season success and win its minutes against iterations of Gobert, Reid and Randle will likely determine the series.

The big Wolves question: How do they defend Dončić?
The Wolves, like most of the NBA, have a Dončić problem.>/B>

In last year’s five-game Western Conference finals while playing for the Mavericks, Dončić averaged 32.4 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.2 assists on 47.3/43.4/84.6 shooting splits against Minnesota. Jaden McDaniels, one of the league’s best perimeter defenders, was the primary matchup on Dončić until the Wolves eventually switched him off, preferring Anthony Edwards and Kyle Anderson on Dončić. McDaniels’ slight frame allows Dončić to push him around, creating separation for stepback 3s or on drives out of pick-and-rolls.

In the most recent matchup in Los Angeles, the Wolves largely kept McDaniels off Dončić again, preferring to use him on Hayes and having him switch onto Dončić to limit pick-and-roll opportunities. Edwards can hold up better physically, but he’s also at a size and strength disadvantage against Dončić. Plus, he began to struggle with foul trouble in the conference finals against Dončić, attacking him on drives and with head fakes.

Dončić revels in the Gobert matchup. He said after his Dallas tribute video that the clip that stood out to him the most was his game-clinching shot over Gobert in Game 2 of the 2024 conference finals. While that was a rallying moment for the Mavericks — a sign they were likely heading to the NBA Finals — it was also a not-so-subtle shot at Gobert.

“He thinks that there’s not a person in the world that can guard him,” Redick said of Dončić. “So I think he takes that seriously, that matchup in particular.”

Gobert’s defensive limitations have long been overstated. He holds up in isolation better than he’s often given credit for, awkward flailing be damned. But he’s primarily a drop big, and the Lakers have shredded that type of defensive big lately. If Gobert is guarding Finney-Smith or Hachimura, the Lakers will spam pick-and-pop opportunities or put him in positions in which he’ll have to cover ground from the rim to the weakside corner or wing. In the case that he does switch, expect Dončić — and potentially even Reaves — to get the better end of that mismatch or generate an advantage elsewhere.

Minnesota just doesn’t have a good Dončić matchup, meaning it’s either going to get torched by him or, more likely, have to adjust its base defense drastically, which will have ripple effects. If the Wolves are downsizing to better match up with him, doubling him and allowing three-on-two and two-on-one opportunities for the Lakers, and/or switching far more with their bigs, those are all wins for the Lakers. If they can find a way to slow him down while preserving their core principles, that can shift the series in Minnesota’s favor.

Lakers’ X-factor: Rui Hachimura

Hachimura was the primary Edwards defender in the last matchup and has spent plenty of time defending Randle as a Laker over the past three seasons (he’s held him to 39 percent shooting, per NBA.com’s imperfect tracking data). He should see plenty of time as the primary defender on both Edwards and Randle, making him one of the most important players in the series.

The Lakers’ starting small forward has developed into a dangerous 3-point shooter in Los Angeles, making 41-plus percent of his 3s in back-to-back seasons (he shot 41.3 percent this season). If the Lakers play him at center, he can attack the Wolves’ bigs as a pick-and-pop threat or on the weak side as a floor-spacer.

Minnesota will test Hachimura’s decision-making on closeouts. He doesn’t have the quickest release and can sometimes struggle with processing. Hachimura has grown tremendously on both sides of the ball this season. On balance, he’s been the Lakers’ fourth-best player — and is certainly their fourth-best offensive weapon. They need him to make 3s, attack closeouts, battle Minnesota’s bigs in the paint and remain locked-in possession to possession.

Wolves’ X-factor: Jaden McDaniels

If the Wolves are to pull off the upset, McDaniels will likely be at the center of it.

Perhaps he fares better defensively against Dončić this time around. Or maybe he’s able to disrupt James’ drives or envelope Reaves on the perimeter. He’s Minnesota’s best or second-best defender, and they’re going to need a Herculean performance from him on that end.

Offensively, McDaniels is the perimeter player the Lakers will help off the most. He’s shooting just 31.1 percent on 3s after the All-Star break and has shot below 34 percent in consecutive seasons. Considering Minnesota’s caliber of shooters — DiVincenzo (39.7 percent), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (38.1 percent), Reid (37.9 percent), and Mike Conley (41.0 percent) — McDaniels is a player the Lakers will live with taking semi-contested 3s against late closeouts.

If McDaniels can neutralize one of LA’s stars, shoot above league-average on 3s, and make winning 50-50 plays (offensive rebounds, loose balls, etc.), he has the chance to swing this series.

Reid — a Laker killer through the years — is also worth noting as an honorable mention.

Series X-factor: Which team strays from their identity more?

The pivot point of this series is the frontline. This, in a way, is an extension of the Lakers’ biggest question.

The Lakers prefer to downsize and play multiple power forwards to space teams out to the point of breaking defensively. They also can switch one through five — or at least one through four or two through five — which keeps their shell defense intact. The Wolves prefer to play two centers and a power forward, dominating teams offensively with their size and strength and funneling opponents into Gobert and their thicket of arms.

The Lakers can counter by playing Hayes more, or even Vanderbilt for defense and rebounding, but those lineups haven’t been as effective as their “Lasers Lineup” — two 40-plus 3-point shooters in Finney-Smith and Hachimura around their big three.

The Wolves, meanwhile, are steadfast in remaining a team that prefers to drop, hedge or blitz in pick-and-rolls. They’d rather not switch. But it’s going to be difficult to do that against the Lakers’ star trio, who basically strong-arm teams into switching because that’s the most effective way to try to stall Dončić, James and Reaves.

Whichever team is forced to adjust more — and earlier in the series — botch tactically and within their rotation will be at the greater disadvantage.

Prediction

This series feels more like a conference semifinals or conference finals bout than a first-round matchup. These teams were separated by one win in the regular season. The Wolves made the conference finals last season. The Lakers have looked like a group capable of getting there — when healthy — post-Dončić trade.

When splitting hairs between the two, it’s easy to see why the Lakers are favored. They have the second-best record within the conference, the second-best home record and two top-10 players. They have two of the best players in the series, and possibly three of the best four when factoring in Reaves. That’s just too much scoring, shot creation and playmaking to overcome.

The Wolves’ defense will challenge them, but they don’t have good matchups for Dončić or James’ individual brilliance.

The Lakers have a better shot at disrupting what the Wolves are looking to do — with the offense so tied to Edwards — than the Wolves do of disrupting what the Lakers want to do. If they can find a way to slow Dončić, either one-on-one or through blitzing, doubling or hedging, the Lakers can just simply run more of the offense through James or Reaves. The Wolves simply don’t have as much playmaking or high-level decision-making outside of Edwards and perhaps Randle.

This will be a close and competitive series, but the Lakers have enough top-end firepower and tactical versatility to advance.

Lakers in 6 games.

Comments

LakerTom says

April 18, 2025 at 8:58 am

FROM THE ABOVE ARTICLE:

The big Lakers question: Can their center-less lineups hold up?

Trading Davis and rescinding the Mark Williams trade has settled the Lakers on a center-less identity. While Jaxson Hayes has been largely impressive and outperformed his veteran’s minimum contract, the Lakers are often at their best with some frontline combination of James, Hachimura, Dorian Finney-Smith and Jarred Vanderbilt. All four players can switch between centers, wings and even guards, and the former three provide a level of spacing that can bend the best defenses until they break.

The Lakers have faced some of the better two-big teams in the league recently — Oklahoma City, Houston, Memphis and Dallas — and dictated the terms of engagement. In all four matchups, the opponent was forced to adjust to the Lakers’ smaller groups, and not the other way around. That’ll be the goal for Los Angeles against Minnesota, which rotates its three bigs — Gobert, Randle and Naz Reid — in various combinations.

The key for the Lakers will be punishing the Wolves for staying big, testing the foot speed, versatility and ability to cover ground defensively of the Wolves’ bigs. Defensively, the Lakers will need to play physically, box out around the rim with multiple players and ensure the Wolves’ guards and wings aren’t beating them to 50-50 balls.

“You just got to play hard as s—,” Austin Reaves said of the Lakers’ smaller lineups playing the Wolves’ bigger groups. “Every possession, you win by the smallest margin or you lose the smallest margin in the playoffs as we could tell from last year. Obviously, ain’t the same team, but if you go back and watch last year’s games, one thing here and there could have changed the whole series. We can’t take possessions off.”

The Lakers have their five-man closing unit: Finney-Smith, Hachimura, James, Reaves and Dončić. All five players should play 30-plus minutes and close games together. They don’t want to veer away from that. The group’s ability to replicate its regular-season success and win its minutes against iterations of Gobert, Reid and Randle will likely determine the series.

The big Wolves question: How do they defend Dončić?
The Wolves, like most of the NBA, have a Dončić problem.>/B>

In last year’s five-game Western Conference finals while playing for the Mavericks, Dončić averaged 32.4 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.2 assists on 47.3/43.4/84.6 shooting splits against Minnesota. Jaden McDaniels, one of the league’s best perimeter defenders, was the primary matchup on Dončić until the Wolves eventually switched him off, preferring Anthony Edwards and Kyle Anderson on Dončić. McDaniels’ slight frame allows Dončić to push him around, creating separation for stepback 3s or on drives out of pick-and-rolls.

In the most recent matchup in Los Angeles, the Wolves largely kept McDaniels off Dončić again, preferring to use him on Hayes and having him switch onto Dončić to limit pick-and-roll opportunities. Edwards can hold up better physically, but he’s also at a size and strength disadvantage against Dončić. Plus, he began to struggle with foul trouble in the conference finals against Dončić, attacking him on drives and with head fakes.

Dončić revels in the Gobert matchup. He said after his Dallas tribute video that the clip that stood out to him the most was his game-clinching shot over Gobert in Game 2 of the 2024 conference finals. While that was a rallying moment for the Mavericks — a sign they were likely heading to the NBA Finals — it was also a not-so-subtle shot at Gobert.

“He thinks that there’s not a person in the world that can guard him,” Redick said of Dončić. “So I think he takes that seriously, that matchup in particular.”

Gobert’s defensive limitations have long been overstated. He holds up in isolation better than he’s often given credit for, awkward flailing be damned. But he’s primarily a drop big, and the Lakers have shredded that type of defensive big lately. If Gobert is guarding Finney-Smith or Hachimura, the Lakers will spam pick-and-pop opportunities or put him in positions in which he’ll have to cover ground from the rim to the weakside corner or wing. In the case that he does switch, expect Dončić — and potentially even Reaves — to get the better end of that mismatch or generate an advantage elsewhere.

Minnesota just doesn’t have a good Dončić matchup, meaning it’s either going to get torched by him or, more likely, have to adjust its base defense drastically, which will have ripple effects. If the Wolves are downsizing to better match up with him, doubling him and allowing three-on-two and two-on-one opportunities for the Lakers, and/or switching far more with their bigs, those are all wins for the Lakers. If they can find a way to slow him down while preserving their core principles, that can shift the series in Minnesota’s favor.

Lakers’ X-factor: Rui Hachimura

Hachimura was the primary Edwards defender in the last matchup and has spent plenty of time defending Randle as a Laker over the past three seasons (he’s held him to 39 percent shooting, per NBA.com’s imperfect tracking data). He should see plenty of time as the primary defender on both Edwards and Randle, making him one of the most important players in the series.

The Lakers’ starting small forward has developed into a dangerous 3-point shooter in Los Angeles, making 41-plus percent of his 3s in back-to-back seasons (he shot 41.3 percent this season). If the Lakers play him at center, he can attack the Wolves’ bigs as a pick-and-pop threat or on the weak side as a floor-spacer.

Minnesota will test Hachimura’s decision-making on closeouts. He doesn’t have the quickest release and can sometimes struggle with processing. Hachimura has grown tremendously on both sides of the ball this season. On balance, he’s been the Lakers’ fourth-best player — and is certainly their fourth-best offensive weapon. They need him to make 3s, attack closeouts, battle Minnesota’s bigs in the paint and remain locked-in possession to possession.

Wolves’ X-factor: Jaden McDaniels

If the Wolves are to pull off the upset, McDaniels will likely be at the center of it.

Perhaps he fares better defensively against Dončić this time around. Or maybe he’s able to disrupt James’ drives or envelope Reaves on the perimeter. He’s Minnesota’s best or second-best defender, and they’re going to need a Herculean performance from him on that end.

Offensively, McDaniels is the perimeter player the Lakers will help off the most. He’s shooting just 31.1 percent on 3s after the All-Star break and has shot below 34 percent in consecutive seasons. Considering Minnesota’s caliber of shooters — DiVincenzo (39.7 percent), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (38.1 percent), Reid (37.9 percent), and Mike Conley (41.0 percent) — McDaniels is a player the Lakers will live with taking semi-contested 3s against late closeouts.

If McDaniels can neutralize one of LA’s stars, shoot above league-average on 3s, and make winning 50-50 plays (offensive rebounds, loose balls, etc.), he has the chance to swing this series.

Reid — a Laker killer through the years — is also worth noting as an honorable mention.

Series X-factor: Which team strays from their identity more?

The pivot point of this series is the frontline. This, in a way, is an extension of the Lakers’ biggest question.

The Lakers prefer to downsize and play multiple power forwards to space teams out to the point of breaking defensively. They also can switch one through five — or at least one through four or two through five — which keeps their shell defense intact. The Wolves prefer to play two centers and a power forward, dominating teams offensively with their size and strength and funneling opponents into Gobert and their thicket of arms.

The Lakers can counter by playing Hayes more, or even Vanderbilt for defense and rebounding, but those lineups haven’t been as effective as their “Lasers Lineup” — two 40-plus 3-point shooters in Finney-Smith and Hachimura around their big three.

The Wolves, meanwhile, are steadfast in remaining a team that prefers to drop, hedge or blitz in pick-and-rolls. They’d rather not switch. But it’s going to be difficult to do that against the Lakers’ star trio, who basically strong-arm teams into switching because that’s the most effective way to try to stall Dončić, James and Reaves.

Whichever team is forced to adjust more — and earlier in the series — botch tactically and within their rotation will be at the greater disadvantage.

Prediction

This series feels more like a conference semifinals or conference finals bout than a first-round matchup. These teams were separated by one win in the regular season. The Wolves made the conference finals last season. The Lakers have looked like a group capable of getting there — when healthy — post-Dončić trade.

When splitting hairs between the two, it’s easy to see why the Lakers are favored. They have the second-best record within the conference, the second-best home record and two top-10 players. They have two of the best players in the series, and possibly three of the best four when factoring in Reaves. That’s just too much scoring, shot creation and playmaking to overcome.

The Wolves’ defense will challenge them, but they don’t have good matchups for Dončić or James’ individual brilliance.

The Lakers have a better shot at disrupting what the Wolves are looking to do — with the offense so tied to Edwards — than the Wolves do of disrupting what the Lakers want to do. If they can find a way to slow Dončić, either one-on-one or through blitzing, doubling or hedging, the Lakers can just simply run more of the offense through James or Reaves. The Wolves simply don’t have as much playmaking or high-level decision-making outside of Edwards and perhaps Randle.

This will be a close and competitive series, but the Lakers have enough top-end firepower and tactical versatility to advance.

Lakers in 6 games.

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