Can JJ Redick finally convince the Lakers to shoot more threes? https://t.co/NZ40qZEcoR
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) September 3, 2024
After years of steering away from the 3-point line, the Lakers’ new head coach, JJ Redick, will attempt to reroute the team’s offensive course.
As the rest of the NBA continues to inch further out on offense, the Lakers remain one of the few teams still pushing inward.
Last season, Los Angeles had the second-highest shot frequency percentage (36%) at the rim in the league. a statistical marker that has become the bludgeoning trademark of the LeBron James and Anthony Davis era.
Since the star duo linked up in 2019, the Lakers have never ranked lower than sixth in the number of shots generated within four feet. Given the individual and combined strengths of James and Davis, alongside the value that attempts at the rim still carry, the strategy makes sense.
However, the scales may have moved too far in one direction.
A direct result of the team’s paint-heavy approach has been their inability to keep up with the rest of the league’s perimeter shift. Whether due to roster construction or gameplan, the Lakers have yet to finish outside the bottom ten in 3-point shot frequency during James and Davis’ tenures.
Last season, they arguably hit rock bottom as they finished with the second-lowest rate in the league despite posting arguably their best 3-point shooting season in franchise history.
The team’s continued aversion to the deep ball is not so much a faux pas within the current basketball landscape but an Achilles heel that has put a mathematical ceiling on their championship outlook.
Even the most ornery skeptics of analytics have to admit there is a correlation between the three and offensive success. This past season, the Boston Celtics exemplified this as they shot their way to a championship.
Beyond just Boston — who attempted more threes than any other team in the NBA last year — the postseason also highlighted the impact spacing still has for several clubs, including the Dallas Mavericks, who attempted the second-most threes.
In an article back in June, Tom Haberstroh pointed out that teams that won the made 3-point column went 60-17 this postseason. That’s the highest mark since the NBA moved the 3-point line back in 1998. The Celtics, specifically, went 15-0 in such games.
This is not to say the Lakers should abandon bullying teams in the paint, but rather, strike a careful balance of modernizing their profile. An aim that is likely at the top of mind for the team’s new head coach, JJ Redick.
Redick, a prolific shooter in his own right, has already been vocal about what he envisions for the Lakers’ offense and the role that 3-pointers will play. Beyond signaling he will use “math,” Redick has also namedropped which individual players he wants to let it fly more often and the type of system he wants to install.
Perhaps the most interesting breadcrumbs to Redick’s philosophy can be found within his comments regarding James’ utilization
With James set to turn 40 in December, Redick will attempt to walk the tightrope of managing his star’s workload while convincing him to alter his game in the process. The most prominent change potentially is James embracing a more off-ball role, which Redick hopes results in more threes.
While it remains to be seen if this transpires and to what degree, before he was hired as head coach, Redick and James had a spirited discussion about the role of analytics and the value of 3-pointers on their “Mind the Game” podcast.
The conversation, which was interesting on several levels, is even more compelling now as it was a sneak peek at the exact types of dialogues Redick will need to have with his team to modify their approach heading into the new season — James included.
There will be expected pushback, as James had during the podcast, but the key for Redick and his staff is to find an important middle ground.
“(You) certainly have to get buy-in and talk to him about how he wants to play,” Redick said about James. “Him and I have joked about this, but he shot over 40 percent from three this year. Like, I want him shooting threes.”
Outside communicating his point with his players on a human level, Redick will also have to reconfigure the Lakers’ offensive system schematically to manufacture more looks from deep.
Beyond their volume issue last season, Los Angeles also lacked versatility in their 3-point attack. Behind no consistent downhill threats, the Lakers had the second-lowest assist percentage off drives, which forced them to create from the inside out, highlighted by them finishing with the second-most post-ups per game.
It is also worth pointing out that despite their improved efficiency, the team’s shooters often were exclusively standstill options. As a team, the Lakers had the third-lowest percentage of off-screen chances, according to the league’s tracking data. Individually, they did not have a single player crack the top 50 in attempts.
While dramatically improved in the second half, the Lakers’ offense still felt predictable as a result. And at times, one-dimensional.
“One of the things last year with this team, they played a lot of random,” Redick said during Summer League. “If you look at the efficiency numbers, when they played random versus when they played out of sets, the sets had a much higher efficiency.
“It’s not that we’re going to call plays every time, but we’re going to put them in environments where they can make reads. Look, we have LeBron and AD on our team. Those guys are obviously going to be offensive hubs, but we are going to play with more movement, more cutting and we have to certainly get buy-in from all players to play that way.”
From a personnel perspective, there should be optimism that the Lakers can replicate their improved shooting last season and, with the right level of buy-in, as Redick stated, could also be more dynamic from a shooting and offensive standpoint. The latter is important for a team that has only one top-ten finish in offensive rating in the last five seasons.
Although the Lakers have had a love-hate relationship with the 3-point line in the past — mostly hate — at some point, the team will have to adapt or risk getting left behind.
Redick will have to wear many new hats as a first-time coach this upcoming year, but how well he can be the team’s 3-point whisperer and matchmaker could prove his most important.
https://x.com/LakerTom/status/1830995611140923675
I don’t think he needs to convince them. He just needs to add more 3 point opportunities to their playbook. We have guys that can them. Just run more plays for more 3 pointers.
Aloha, Michael, I believe just running plays to get more 3-point shots will not be enough for the Lakers to raise their 3-point attempts to middle of the pack. They’re going to need LeBron and AD to buy in and shoot and make threes too.
The Lakers as a team will still need to embrace volume 3-point shooting as a critical part of their game going forward because their established offensive style of play and natural tendency of their two superstars is to attack the rim, not to shoot a three. Suddenly shooting 35-40 threes instead of 31 per game is not going to happen easily, especially if we trade D’Angelo Russell.
When push comes to shove, LeBron James and Anthony Davis are going to attack the rim rather than shoot a three. Now maybe JJ can convince LeBron to fire away and maybe running plays will help, but the Lakers are not going to be able to keep up with teams like Boston and Dallas who want to shoot 40 threes per game unless they embrace the 3-point shot.
While I have high hopes for JJ, I think it will be a struggle for the Lakers to embrace the 3-point shot because it hasn’t been part of their game and it will take a complete reversal of how they play for the three to have a proper role on this team. Until JJ can get everybody, including LeBron and AD aboard, don’t expect the Lakers to easily embrace the 3-point revolution.
This briefly touches on the reasons why we shoot fewer threes and quickly pivots into the standard “Why” and “Maybe” packages and then devolves from there into hyperbolic “reporting”.
Fact:
There are really 3 current Lakers we should expect to shoot 5+ 3 point FGA/game and they are (in order) LeBron James, D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves. Nobody else will get the required minutes or simply isn’t skilled enough to be a volume three point shooter. Wild Card on this one goes to Max Christie who shot decently in terms of accuracy but hasn’t seen enough realistic game time to justify such volume, at this time. Double Bonus Wild Card goes to rookie Dalton Knecht…who is a rookie and hasn’t ever played close to 82 games with this kind of travel, defense, further out 3 point line, etc. I hope he can show himself to be capable of the trust of 5+/game but that jury is waaaaay out.
But wait, that’s, on average, only 15 three pointers…how will we even get to 35-40/game? I don’t think we will, nor do I think we should given the current roster construction. This team is still built for inside the arc basketball unless someone takes a big step forward (Vando?).
Fact:
Other than LeBron James we have zero players capable of being a consistent drive and kick threat. Not Reaves, DLo, Vincent, JHS, or anyone else currently on the roster. They lack either the vision, read/react skills/athleticism, or a combination of all 3. Drive and kick threats that actually create gravity with the defense are few and far between. Usually they are limited in shooting, defense or both. Catch and shoot threes, especially from the corner, are some of the absolute best shots you can get in a half court set in the game. We consistently lack the personnel in either the shooting or driving and kicking…or both…aspects. So blame Rob and Magic on this one.
Fiction:
The Lakers have declared a war on the three point line as this articles…and some bloggers…consistently insist. If it’s a war it’s a cold one as every single coach since Byron Scott has publicly endorsed more three point shooting and analytics. From Luke Walton to Darvin Ham every single Lakers coach in modern times (and Mike “Goofballs’ D’Antoni, too) has proclaimed during media day, training camp and early in the season that three pointer is both a viable and dangerous weapon along with it being something the team needs to embrace. So what happens? Some of our best players pass up open shots. Our best offensive weapon is definitely AD or LeBron at the rim, by a country mile. That in turn leads to more free throws (a stat we rank in the top ten in every season since LeBron and AD teamed up).
In short the players who control the offense, LBJ and AD, are the ones most responsible (outside Rob for being a moron) for the lack of three point shooting. One could argue we should run more plays designed to get a shooter open but the cast of characters around James and Davis has changed so much and so dramatically every season since AD came here it makes that kind of chemistry nigh impossible. That’s not even to say this is the duo’s 3rd coach since winning a title together, which also hampers the effort to modernize and develop anything consistent.
Good things take time. Nobody pulls an amazing team out of their ass with a few trades or role-player swaps. Changes on the margin just make so very much more sense, to me anyhow. Look back at the dynasties for guidance if you think I’m full of BS. There were solid cores of 5+ players on every single one of those multiple title-winning teams.
Magic, Cap, Cooper, Worthy, Wilkes/Scott, Rambis (one could argue Nixon, as well).
Kobe, Shaq, Fisher, Fox, Horry, Lue, Shaw, Madsen(?)
Kobe, Gasol, Odom, Walton, Farmar, Vujacic, Brown, Bynum
Those three teams won 10 NBA titles. That’s a starting line up and a bench that isn’t in the “trade machine” or dumped for a mega personality, or anything absurd like that. They built an actual team, left it mostly alone…with the same coach…and were content to let it grow.
What a notion in these “modern” times…
You don’t think Rui can help in the 3 point department Jamie? He led the team in % at .422. And was even better at a starter at 43% on 4 attempts. I don’t feel it’s a stretch to find Rui an extra shot a game. Poor Rui is so disrespected. 16.7 ppg, on 57% from the field and the for mentioned 43% from 3 as the 5th option. A lot of teams would love that from their 3rd option. The Lakers went 21 and 8 once he joined the other starters and they were a plus 7 with Rui starting with the other starters.
I just don’t expect him to get many more attempts per game than 4 or so. When we talk about some stationary number of team attempts/game my questions will always come back to “Who is taking them, when, how and from where?” We’ll see what role he has on this team, especially if Vando and Vincent are healthy and contributing. I generally toss a lot of the prior season out the window with the new coach and some guys filling minutes he (in theory) had.
I’m hoping JJ can get the Lakers to embrace the three and run offense to generate the kinds of looks we need to shoot 35-40 threes per game. Unfortunately, I tend to agree with jamie that it’s going to take time and probalby some new players to get the Lakers to fully embrace the 3-point shot.
The key is LeBron James. That’s why the intriguing conflict between JJ and LeBron about James shooting threes is going to be the key. The way to change the Lakers offensive dynamic would be LeBron and DLO taking 10 threes per game. That’s the only way I see Lakers getting up 35-40 good threes. Jamie is right. You can’t turn most players who take 2-4 threes per game into guys willing and able to take 6-8 threes per game.
It’s the old inside-out vs. outside-in argument. The old school game is obviously inside-out, which we know can work. The new school game is outside-in, which can also work. Since the Lakers already are a great inside-out team, they should not give that up.
But they do need to adjust their game to be able to keep up with the rapidly increasing number of threes being taken and to give their offense better balance and unpredictability. For this season, 35 threes per game would be a good and reasonable target. More than that is not likely with the personnel we currently have.