The basketball gods have not yet given up on the Los Angeles Lakers. They’ve just raised the bar on the kind of heroics that are going to be required for the Lakers to pull off a miraculous championship run.
Right now, the Lakers’ only path to this year’s championship is to pull off a rare 1–3 comeback by beating the Timberwolves 3 straight playoff games, something that’s only been done 13 times and only once by the Lakers. However, the Lakers have two things going for them that give them a remote chance to beat the Wolves 3 straight games: LeBron, who pulled off a 1–3 comeback in the NBA Finals and home court in 2 of the 3 games left.
So while the basketball gods did not intervene to prevent the zebras from stealing Game 4 from the Lakers, they did leave the purple and gold with a challenging-but-not-impossible path to survive the first round of playoffs.
The key game is obviously Game 5 in Los Angeles on Wednesday night. The Lakers desperately need a wire-to-wire big win to restore their confidence and keep the series alive. Win that game, go 2–3, and everything changes.
The Lakers are then within one game of tying the series and regaining home court advantage. Yes, they do have to win Game 6 on Friday night in Minnesota but if they do, they suddenly turn the tables on the Wolves.
The series then returns to Los Angeles on Sunday tied 3–3 with the Lakers once again the favorite to move on. That’s the dramatic comeback ending the basketball gods are demanding this year from the Los Angeles Lakers.
So the good news is the Lakers still have a chance to win a championship but they will need to play much better on offense and defense than they played in the first four games. So let’s look at what the Lakers need to do.
1. PLAY SMALL BALL
There is no question the Lakers best strategy in this series is to play small ball. JJ Redick probably should have benched Jaxson Hayes earlier as the spacing DFS provides makes the half court offense so much better.
2. SLOW GAME DOWN
Getting into a run-and-gun high scoring game against the Wolves is not going to be to the Lakers’ advantage. No live ball turnovers or leaking out to fast break. End every defensive possession with a rebound.
3. CUT DOWN ON FOULS
The Wolves are shooting 2 more free throws per game than the Lakers, a reversal over the regular season when L.A. averaged 2 more free throws per game than Minnesota. L.A. needs to defend with feet, not hands.
4. PLAY MORE PLAYERS
JJ’s big gamble on playing his Death Lineup the entire second half would have paid off big had it worked and they still have Wednesday to recover. Going forward, the Lakers need to play more players to avoid injuries.
5. SHOOT MORE THREES
The Lakers biggest differential so far in the Timberwolves series has been their +5.1 ppg in 3-point shooting differential. There is no other area where the Lakers can potentially improve their performance than threes.
1) Gotta bench Hayes. Been a huge advocate all season but the playoffs are about matchups. We’re losing Hayes’ minutes and putting ourselves in a 1st quarter hole. That needs to get switched up.
2) I’m not sure a plodding half court offense every time down is the answer. We haven’t been running a hyper efficient offense and slowing it down forces Luka, LeBron and Reaves to rise to the challenge collectively which has proved elusive.
3) Yes.
4) That was dumb no matter how it ended. That’s a Thibbs move which always reek of desperation. Easiest path to injuring a key player is not resting them. Need to give Vando the minutes Hayes has and roll the dice.
5) Out of 80 shots we took 47 threes and made a whopping 16. Long misses led to as many leak out fast breaks as turnovers did. This is not the answer. LeBron got to the line, Luka could have gotten there more but they’re settling for lazy three pointers. Quality shot? Great, take it. But work it inside, a few passes and 63 dribbles around the perimeter isn’t an offense. Take the challenge, take it to the rack. Need a smarter offense not a lazier/more predictable one.
My bad, we made 19. Still, with the “shooters” we have 47 is too many.
We need to be better on the glass. Not one Laker is averaging double digit rebounds.
We need more movement, our assists are way down. You can only tip your cap so much until you look like the bell hop. Stop playing like a hotel employee waiting for the moment to come to you. There’s a reason the phrase “embrace the moment” exists and it’s not for being passive.
I don’t know if more of Vincent , Goodwin or Vando is the answer but they had big roles in the regular season wins over Minny. We’re not winning with them on the bench. Might be time to try something else…
Problem is Luka and LeBron can’t do it all.
The Wolves’ secondary stars (McDaniels & Randle) and role players (Reid, DiVincenzo, Gobert, & NAW) have outplayed our secondary stars (Reaves & Rui) and role players (DFS, Gabe, Hayes, & Vando).
Had we won, JJ’s playing just 5 guys would have been celebrated. As was, we don’t play until Wednesday. Just have our backs against the wall. Our chance to win this year is still alive though and we do have LeBron and two more games at home.
Lack of a center and wasted roster spots on players with poor seasons exercising their player options just killed our depth. We’ll be still further from winning a championship next season. This summer Rob has to solve the center problem
Some things that will become discussion topics will be:
1. Reaves to the bench as 6th man to open up starting spot for lockdown point of attack defender who can also shoot the three.
2. Trading for a modern center who can both stretch the floor and be a lob threat on offense and protect the rim and guard all three levels on defense.
3. Hachimua and Vanderbilt and our 2031 FRP and pick swaps will be traded.
4. LeBron will take less to open cap space to use full NT MLE.
5. Must re-sign Luka and DFS and Hayes as backup center.