Why have Lakers been so slow to upgrade roster? https://t.co/vVexYP0Obl

— LakerTom (@LakerTom) July 11, 2024

Hey everyone, and welcome to the latest edition of the Lakers newsletter. This week, as I pack for Las Vegas — again — ahead of seven days of basketball in a place hotter than the inside of a pizza roll, I’m going to do my best to explain the dilemma the Lakers are currently facing.

Well, at least one of them

Better off Ted

The Wikipedia page for Ted Stepien is a real roller coaster ride. There’s professional softball leagues with Whitey Ford, fired Cleveland Cavaliers coaches, racial ignorance, a lot of fired coaches and a ton of traded draft picks.

The last of those is why the page was open on my laptop Wednesday night, the Lakers’ roster functionally the same as it was in the spring with limited pathways to making meaningful change.

Rightfully, the tone in my mentions on social media and in my emails has been somewhere between antsy and full-on annoyed with the Lakers’ front office for inaction. The addition of two rookie players and a rookie head coach are hardly reasons to believe in a Lakers transformation from a first-round exit to a Celtics-tying 18th championship.

So why are the Lakers in this position? And what does that softball-owning weirdo have to do with any of this?

Player options

The Lakers went into last offseason with some momentum, riding high on the back of the Russell Westbrook trade and a Western Conference Finals appearance. Continuity was the marching order and, to get help around the edges, three of the Lakers’ free agent signees were offered player options to accept minimum contracts.

Christian Wood and Cam Reddish both battled ineffectiveness and injuries and couldn’t sustain any contribution. Jaxson Hayes should show some promise late in the season, but because he’s not a floor-spacer and not the kind of player who you’d send out on Nikola Jokic for long stretches, his upside with the Lakers was always kind of limited.

Anyway, all three decided to come back.

A cool free-agent market (more on that below) kept D’Angelo Russell from testing the waters. Add in rookies Dalton Knecht and Bronny James and LeBron James and boom, that’s a full roster.

With no room for anyone, the Lakers had to sit out free agency.

Get to the phones

Heading into this summer, executives around the league were aware of two truths.

One, this wasn’t a top-tier free agent class.

Two, with trades the primary pathway for meaningful changes, the first and second apron rules were going to be a real pain.

The latter has the Lakers living in a pretty rough situation. One, they’re operating with virtually no leverage in what is looking like a seller’s market. Because teams over the first apron are not allowed to take back more money in a trade, teams below that apron are the more preferred trade partners (other teams, hypothetically, could make a trade where the dollar amounts are exactly equal, but that’s not easy to pull off).

If the Lakers want to make a deal where they clear roster space — maybe enough to create room to use the taxpayer mid-level exception in free agency — that’s going to come at a real cost, because again, no leverage.

OK, so let’s say a big trade becomes available. Here’s where our good friend Ted comes in.

Because Stepien spent draft picks so irresponsibly, the NBA instituted a rule where teams couldn’t trade first-round picks in consecutive years.

That means, as of today, the Lakers have access to their 2029 and 2031 first-round picks. Their 2025 first-rounder belongs to the Pelicans, locking 2026. The 2027 first-rounder belongs to Utah unless it’s in the top four, and then it stays with the Lakers.

And because that pick’s protections means it becomes a second-rounder for Utah if it lands in the top four (instead of conveying to 2028), the Lakers have 2029 and 2031 to deal (with 2028 and 2030 locked because of the Stepien Rule).

All of those rules, though, make it harder for the Lakers to pull off the kind of deal they might want. If the team trades a 2029 first-round pick, the protections can’t roll over to the first round of 2030 (because if they do, it triggers the Stepien Rule and makes 2031 unavailable to deal). And because you can’t convey a 2031 pick to 2032 (those picks can’t be dealt yet), again, protecting it can be complicated.

The Lakers do have five second-round picks between now and 2031 to trade (as well as pick swap in the Stepien years) should they need them.

The existential stuff
OK, so that’s what the Lakers have, in addition to their players, to put into a trade. If that’s what goes out, now what comes back? And is it worth it?

I can’t pretend to say I know exactly what kind of deals the Lakers are kicking around, but I do think I understand the hesitancy to act without a clear improvement to the current roster.

And the limitations to what they have to offer, also with the great value 2029 and 2031 unprotected (or lightly protected) picks have, make it hard for a deal to really align.

Take a player like Dorian Finney-Smith, who has a $15-million contract with a player option for the following season. There’s some promise for a wing with size who can shoot the three and play high-level defense in Finney-Smith — he’s done it in the past. And let’s say his shooting struggles late in the last season were more a product of the Nets being directionless than anything else.

Getting him from Brooklyn will require at least $15 million in salary (Gabe Vincent and Christian Wood isn’t enough) and draft compensation. And if that compensation is a future first-round pick, is the upgrade meaningful enough to take one of the two first-round picks out of the Lakers’ trade chest?

I’m not qualified to answer, but the Lakers’ inaction when it comes to making a deal speaks to their thoughts right now.

Add in the closing window on LeBron James (soon to be 40) and Anthony Davis as the Lakers’ core, and the front office has to be asking itself what it should invest in this group? It also needs to be asking itself if the organization can afford to wait.

Complicated, right?

There’s a chance they could be waiting for the market to settle in some, the first few waves of free agency having come and gone. Maybe that opens up more trade pathways.

Also, Friday, Summer League starts in Las Vegas, with every exec of note converging on the city discussing possible deals. Maybe something comes of all that.

It’s not easy and it’s on Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka to figure it out. But there are reasons this summer has been quiet for the Lakers.

FOUR TEAM LAKERS TRADE

LAL:
-LaVine
-Olynyk
-Kessler

CHI:
-Russell
-Hachimura
-Hood-Schifino

UTH:
-Reddish
-Lewi
-Bulls 2027 FRP

TOR:
-Vincent
-2 LAL SRPs

REAVES, Dinwiddie, Bronny
LAVINE, Christie, OPEN
JAMES, Knecht, OPEN
DAVIS, Vanderbilt, Wood
OLYNYK, Kessler, Hayes pic.twitter.com/eYsUv1BAwQ

— LakerTom (@LakerTom) July 10, 2024

It would take DLO and Rui and probably at least 2 unprotected FRPs. Maybe some more swaps. BI likely looking for the max extension which, between Bron, AD and that deal ($60 something mil).

Anyhoo, I am of the opinion we are probably either a few ponies short, would balk at the price of that odd-fitting trio, the optics of giving up as much for BI as we did AD, the difficulty of building a decent team once we rocket past the 2nd apron just to keep Reaves or any number of logical reasons why we wouldn’t make that deal but it’s the dog days and I’m bored.

.@AllenSliwa breaks down the #Lakers unsuccessful off-season and why he believes it went down that way 👀

What would you have done differently Lakers' fans? pic.twitter.com/KUctn3weza

— ESPN Los Angeles (@ESPNLosAngeles) July 9, 2024

is not good.

Lakers Solidified Their Status as Contenders With Three Offseason Moves https://t.co/m2pNA80tKU

— LakerTom (@LakerTom) July 7, 2024

The Los Angeles Lakers have been unable to find the winning formula since their NBA championship victory in the 2019-20 season. They’ve tried different coaches and rosters around LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but the closest they came was their run to the Western Conference Finals in the 2022-23 season. They attempted to replicate their success last season with the same core and a few additions, only to fall in the first round.

The roster looked solid on paper, even if they never looked like one of the best teams in the West. But poor coaching, lack of aggressiveness at the trade deadline, and ultimately facing their bogey team, the Denver Nuggets, is how their season came to an unceremonious end.

There were a lot of expectations for the Lakers to make big moves this off-season, with the rest of the West improving considerably. They tried, but ultimately fell short, and saw their targets reject Hollywood.

They did make some moves, albeit not as flashy, that could ultimately make them contenders for the upcoming season.

Hired JJ Redick

Redick is one of the smartest minds around basketball, and his podcast with LeBron echoed that. One of his coaching strengths could be his playcalling, which coincidentally, was a huge shortcoming of the Ham regime. There weren’t enough plays being called, and the Lakers were simply relying on individual brilliance to score, making every possession a hard-fought two or three points. Avoiding that will be huge for their aging stars.

The Lakers three-point shooting should be much improved next season, now that they have one of the best shooters of the previous decade in charge. They were eighth-best in efficiency from deep, but ranked 28th in the league in attempts. Given his liking for off-ball action, Redick should be able to help the team improve in these areas.

The Lakers were four wins away from the fourth seed last season, and the season could have ended differently. The top three teams may have separated themselves, but the Lakers were right behind them despite having Ham at the helm. With a potentially better coach in charge, they should be in a better position in the upcoming season.

This could be a lot to expect from a first-time coach, but Redick looks like a promising hire.

NBA Draft Success

This might have involved some luck. Not that the Lakers minded
Lakers rookies Dalton Knecht and Bronny James

Heading into the Draft, it seemed like the Lakers would’ve been targeting a big body. Christian Wood is a great backup big, but his health is a concern, while Jaxson Hayes isn’t good enough to be in a playoff rotation. So it made sense to target a front court player to provide cover for Davis.

But those potential plans went out the window when Dalton Knecht became available. The former Tennessee star was one of the most NBA-ready prospects and one of the best shooters in the draft. He was projected as a top-10 pick, as high as number five. But his age might have been a deterrent for other teams, and the Lakers were more than happy to oblige when he fell all the way to the 17th pick.

Considering the aforementioned shooting issue, Knecht was an easy choice for the Lakers, who have always needed shooters. So drafting one of the best in the country was more than what they would have hoped for.

Knecht is more than just a shooter though, and is a prolific scorer from all over the court. He is a perfect fit alongside the Lakers stars and should have a smooth transition into the Lakers rotation.

The Lakers also drafted Bronny James with their 55th overall pick. He may not be good enough to make the rotation in the near future, but it was the insurance they needed to make sure LeBron returned to Los Angeles in free agency. Even if it takes a while until he becomes a regular for the team, Bronny’s impact off the court is already evident.

Prepared For Trade Deadline

The Lakers could be in for a splash in February
D’Angelo Russell reacts after a play.

The Lakers sat pat in free agency as they watched their rivals improve, with many wondering when GM Rob Pelinka would awaken from his slumber. But with no roster spots to work with, the Lakers would have to waive players if they wanted to add new signings, or pay ridiculous prices for trades.

They may not have made a splash in the off-season, but that doesn’t mean they will be quiet at the trade deadline. Their most successful moves in recent years have come at the deadline, when they traded for D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, and Rui Hachimura in 2023. The deadline is when teams have a much better idea of where they stand, whether they want to be sellers or buyers, and that’s when the Lakers should capitalize.

More players will be available on the trade block in February, and with expiring contracts like Russell, Wood, and Hayes, the Lakers will be in a great position to make moves. If that isn’t enough, Knecht could also be on the block as a sweetener for any deal.

Is it ideal to put your season on the line at the trade deadline? Probably not, but it’s not like the Lakers have been spoiled for choice this off-season. A big move may not be necessary, but as long as they have the right pieces around James and AD, the Lakers will always be contenders. Or at least try to be.