Aloha,
Now that the dust has settled on the free agent extravaganza I’m feeling good about this team and what Rob did. He resisted the temptation to go after a big name that would have assured another disappointing season. Instead he assembled a roster that will be very competitive.
At this point I see a very good squad but not one that will win a ring, at least without a couple of things happening. As usual health will be the primary issue this year. Can we finally get 65+ games out of both LeBron and AD? And more importantly will they be available for the playoffs? Nothing else matters if the answer is no.
Beyond health I think the development of the young guys will be key. From the time Austin entered the starting rotation he played like a budding star. He checked every box you want from your 3rd best player. If he can maintain that level of play we are in very good shape. If he can take another step forward he could be an all star.
Rui’s playoff run was fantastic. He played like the lottery pick that the Wizards had envisioned. One can make a case that Phil Handy maybe the most valuable non player in the Lakers organization because he consistently unlocks the potential in these young guys. Rui played like a high end role player in the playoffs and if he continues to shine like that we are in very good shape.
Vando proved to be an elite defender for us last year. The big task ahead for him is on offense. He shot 33% from 3 for the Jazz and 30% for us. That has to improve. If he can get into the 35% range he can stay on the floor longer. Also they gave him so much air space last year, I would like to see him take it to the rim more. If his offense picks up, now along with Austin and Rui, being a contender is not unreasonable.
Here is where my biggest concern comes in. Our guard depth. I really like what I saw from Max last year. He played under control, defended well and shot 41% from 3. I watched a lot of G league last year and he was consistently the best player on the floor. At 20 years old is he ready for a major role in the rotation? I also liked our draft picks. Both were projected To go higher in the draft. Still they are rookies. These 3 guys are our shooting guard depth. At least one of them is going to have to step up or it’s a very thin guard rotation.
As for DLO. well, he was a big reason we even made the playoffs and is was big in 7 of our 8 playoff wins. unfortuently he was part of the reason in the losses. I’m confident he will have a good regular season. it’s the playoffs that will be the concern. if Vincent plays well, it is not as big of a concern.
I like our free agent pick ups. I was bummed when we didn’t get Brown. Apparently he was all set to sign with us when the Pacers swooped in with a last second offer that we couldn’t match even if we wanted to. This should put to rest the notion that the Pacers are merely a rebuilding team. They want to win. But I digress. Rob pivoted well and snagged Vincent. If he plays as well as he did for a Miami during their stretch run and playoffs he will be at the very least an upgrade over Dennis who I really liked and possibly a starter. Grabbing Prince was a coup. At 4.5 mil he might be one of the steals of the draft. He is the classic long 3 and d wing. He is
someone I always liked. And I believe is a better player then a lot of wings making much more.
Hayes and Reddish are both low risk, high reward players that the Lakers have had great success with. The Lakers have been after a Cam for two years and finally landed him at a discount. He has everything you want in a 3 and d wing except consistency. Do your thing Phil. As for Hayes I actually saw him play quite a bit. I am a big BI fan and I watched a lot of Pelicans. With him you get a player with a high motor, floor runner with crazy athleticism, especially for a big. You also get a walking foul and a little OC. I believe he is a worthwhile gamble IF we can bring in a solid vet. And that vet should be a banger. Hayes and for that matter Mo are not bangers. Hayes is fine for 75% of the typical NBA centers he will face. But we need another guy that can bang for 10 minutes against the Joker, Embid and a few other wide bodies in the league. We have 8 mil left to spend. I would offer half and try and land Plumlee if possible. As is both Rui and LeBron are our only bangers, we need another.
If the answer to most of the above is yes, then I will consider this team a contender. And unlike prior years, none of the above seems like a stretch.
Plumlee gone. Sigh.
Great takes Michael, thank you.
Like you said, health is concern #1,2 & 3. Health to Lebron, AD, and LeBron again. However, given the roster we’ve assembled if LeBron wants to ease into the 23-24 season I’m fine with that. Also, and more importantly, while I don’t expect to see a Kawhi Leonard-style load management, we need to focus on keeping James’ minutes under 40 consistently. I’d like to say under 35 but feel like Ham won’t be able to resist putting him in. Same goes for AD and adding Hayes can help with that, especially if Rui can play more at the 4 or small 5.
Regarding D’Angelo Russell I think we need to unleash him to the point he feels like this is “his team”. At least in the regular season, especially when LeBron isn’t on the floor. If he can play to a near All Star level it means we’ll win, he’ll opt out and make more money next summer, and everyone will be happy. D Lo should be annoyed he’s barely making more than Rui. For a guard with his size and skill set he should be up around FVV money. He’s not because of his playoff runs. He needs to build on last season’s success, where as you noted he had several big games, and play with some freedom.
In terms of the rest of the roster I’m fine with everyone playing type as they did last season and will be excited if they take a step forward or add something to their games. Want to see Rui take and make another 3/game. Want to see Reaves up his assists without adding TOs, and I want to see Vando not deferring. He plays like he thinks he’s the 4th or 5th best player on the roster when he can do a lot more. I’d like to see him drive the ball down court, hard, after a rebound. Use your speed or make a play.
All in all, I see this team topping out as a 4th seed in the west. That’s fine. I kind of expect to see either Phoenix or Dallas run away with the #1 seed (as long as it’s not Denver as we saw what the altitude advantage does for them in the playoffs) just based on the players being pissed on those teams and not managing age/injuries like we’ll have to. If we were 100% healthy and available I’d still see us topping out 2nd but more likely 3rd. what we need is for LeBron and AD to be as close to 100% effective as possible come the playoffs.
Vincent is a solid upgrade over Dennis, Hayes is a solid upgrade over no other center to speak of, I expect both to come off the bench. Prince could have a nice role but honestly I hope he’s outplayed by Rui and Vando so that they can have a larger impact. Same goes for Cam who may struggle to find a consistent role on our team since he’s really one-dimensional. That’s fine, they’re cheap and we’re not really counting on them to do anything but fill a specific role. Our draft picks will need G-League time and the same may or may not go for our two-way, undrafted guys.
I will say I won’t be surprised if the lakers leave the last roster spot or two to upgrade one of our new acquisitions to a minimum deal. They have all of camp to sign players and fill out the roster to 14 or even 15. My hope is that Hood-Schifano can give us a reason to want to see him get some minutes over Vincent or Castleton force his way into a rookie minimum deal but if it doesn’t work out we could see Tristan Thompson or Nerlens Noel or Willie Cauley-Stein or Dwayne Dedmon fill that spot, as well. It’s borderline inconsequential, anyhow, since we’re talking about a player we should all hope doesn’t play much.
You all made great points.
I’m good with LeBron & AD playing 55 games……as long as they’re ready to roll when the post-season comes around. If they play 55 and still nursing injuries in April….no bueno. As we saw this season, seedings aren’t as important as how you’re playing heading into the postseason.
It would be nice to avoid the playin and get a top 6 seeding. That’s my basic hope for the regular season.