Who Should Be Lakers’ Starting Point Guard If Russell Westbrook Traded?

If the Los Angeles Lakers trade Russell Westbrook and Patrick Beverley, they would like to get back a starting-quality veteran point guard so Dennis Schröder could take over Russ’ 6th man role as lead guard off the bench.

With it becoming more and more obvious Westbrook cannot be trusted in tight games much less in the playoffs, the odds the Lakers will trade him in the next 3 days before the February 9 deadline has certainly increased.
The Lakers’ front office knows parity in the West has given them a unique opportunity to make the playoffs despite a current 25–29 record. With help from a trade, the Lakers could make a strong run and finish in the top-6.

Should the Lakers ultimately trade Westbrook, it probably means they’re going all-in to win this year and will also be trading Beverley and Walker, their only other contracts over the minimum besides James and Davis.
Since Dennis Schröder would be the only point guard left on the roster, the Lakers ideally want to bring back a better point guard who could start and allow Schröder to take over Westbrook’s spot leading the second unit.

So what do the Los Angeles Lakers want from their new starting point guard they can’t or aren’t getting from Dennis Schröder, who’s playing exceptionally well as the starter for a player on a minimum contract?
They want a point guard who can take and make more 3-point shots, has the physicality and tenacity to play switchable point-of-attack defense, and can contribute a high number of assist against low number of turnovers.

Let’s compare Dennis Schröder and four point guards who’ve been linked to the Lakers —Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, Terry Rozier, and Mike Conley — to see who’s the best fit of the five for shooting, defense, and playmaking.

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Who’s Best Fit As 3-Point Shooter?

Per the following chart, Mike Conley has the best 3-point percentage for this season at 36.6% and his career at 38.1%. The only issue is whether he takes enough threes per game for his 3-point gravity to attract defenders.

1. Conley, TYR: 36.6% on 5.1 3PA pg, Career: 38.1% on 4.1 3PA pg
2. VanVleet, TYR: 33.6% on 8.6 3PA pg, Career: 37.6% on 6.3 3PA pg
3. Rozier: TYR: 33.9% on 8.1 3PA pg, Career: 37.1% on 5.5 3PA pg
4. Lowry, TYR: 33.5% on 6.2 3PA pg, Career: 36.7% on 5.3 3PA pg
5. Schröder, TYR: 33.6% on 3.6 3PA pg, Career: 33.7% on 3.4 3PA pg

It’s a little concerning that all four of the point guard candidates the Lakers would have to trade for are now shooting a lower percentage from deep than their career. Schröder is shooting close to his career percentage.
There could be many reasons why Conley, VanVleet, Rozier, and Lowry are all shooting lower than their career percentage from three, including the challenge and burden of playing for a losing team that’s going nowhere.

Because LeBron James will often have the ball on offense, the Lakers’ starting point guard needs to possesses 3-point gravity that attracts and holds defenders close and keeps them from sagging into paint to help.
Teams aren’t worried about shooters who only take 3 or 4 and make 1 or 2 threes per game because that’s too few points. But a volume 3-point shooter taking 8 shots and making 3 or 4 could generate 9 or 12 winning points.

VanVleet and Rozier are actually better fits as 3-point shooters for the Lakers than Conley because they have greater 3-point gravity since they’re volume 3-point shooters who currently take over 8 threes per game.

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Who’s Best Fit As Perimeter Defender?

Finding stats to compare defensive players from different teams is difficult. But stats for how many combined steals or blocks a player makes can be an excellent measure of how active and effective a player is as a defender.

The Los Angeles Lakers are struggling as a team defensively, especially whenever Anthony Davis is not on the court to protect the rim. One major area that needs dramatic improvement is the Lakers’ perimeter defense.
Per the following chart, Fred VanVleet has the best combined steals and blocks stats, averaging 2.2 stocks per game for the season and 1.7 stocks for his career. Although only 6′ 1″, Fred is an elite point-of-attack defender.

1. VanVleet, TYR: 1.6 spg, 0.6 bpg, 2.2 sbpg, Career: 1.3 spg, 0.4 bpg, 1.7 sbpg
2. Lowry, TYR: 1.1 spg, 0.4 bpg, 1.5 sbpg, Career: 1.3 spg, 0.3 bpg, 1.6 sbpg
3. Conley, TYR: 1.1 spg, 0.2 bpg, 1.3 sbpg, Career: 1.4 spg, 0.2 bpg, 1.6 sbpg
4. Rozier, TYR: 1.0 spg, 0.2 bpg, 1.2 sbpg, Career: 0.9 spg, 0.2 bpg, 1.1 sbpg
5. Schröder, TYR: 0.8 spg, 0.1 blg, 0.9 sbpg, Career: 0.8 spg, 0.1 bpg, 0.9 sbpg

Kyle Lowry and Mike Conley both also have excellent steal and block stats with career averages of 1.6 stocks per game, just behind Fred VanVleet. Rozier and Schröder had lower but still respectable steal and block stats.
Steals and blocks or stocks are an excellent stat to use to measure player defensive activity, even for point guards. VanVleet’s 0.4 blocks per game is impressive and shows Fred plays much bigger than expected for 6′ 1.”

VanVleet is the best fit for the Lakers as an elite perimeter defender who plays bigger than his size and excels in creating steals and blocks, which is exactly what Los Angeles needs defensively from the point guard position.

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Who’s Best Fit As Smart Playmaker

Mike Conley appears to be the best fit for playmaking as he averages 7.6 assists per game, which is the best of the Lakers’ five starting point guard prospects. Conley is also second to Lowry in career assists per game.

But assists alone don’t define how good a playmaker a point guard is as the Lakers learned from Westbrook. While teams need point guards who create volume assists, they also need point guards who do not turn the ball over.
The second stat that defines a point guard’s performance is his assists-to-turnovers ratio. Here again, Mike Conley stands out with an incredible 4.8 to 1 assists-to-turnovers ratio for this season and 2.9 ratio for his careeer.

1. Conley: TYR: 7.6 apg, 1.6 topg, 4.8 a/to, Career: 5.7 apg, 2.0 topg, 2.9 a/to
2. VanVleet, TYR: 6.5 apg, 1.8 topg, 3.6 a/to, Career: 5.1 Apg, 1.6 topg, 3.2 a/to
3. Lowry, TYR: 5.0 apg, 2.0 topg, 2.5 a/to, Career: 6.3 apg, 2.4 topg, 2.6 a/to
4. Rozier, TYR: 5.1 apg, 2.3 topg, 2.2 a/to, Career: 3.3 apg, 1.3 topg, 2.5 a/to
5. Schröder, TYR: 3.8 apg, 1.6 topg, 2.4 a/to, Career: 4.6 apg, 2.3 topg, 2.0 a/to

Fred VanVleet’s 3.6 assists-to-turnovers ratio for this season is even better than his career 3.2, which is greater than the career ratios of any of the other four candidates. VanVleet and Conley are the best fits as playmakers.

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Who’s Best Fit Overall

The Los Angeles Lakers are looking for the starting point guard who would be their best fit for as a volume catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter, point-of-attack perimeter defender, and high assists and low turnover playmaker.

Three additional factors that need to be considered when deciding which of the five starting point guard candidates is the best fit for what the Lakers need are the player’s age, his annual salary, and the length of his contract.
Ideally, if the Lakers are going to spend a draft pick to get a player, that player needs to be somebody the team is investing in long-term and thus must be on a good contract or be willing to sign a reasonable extension.

The top starting point guard candidate who best fits the Lakers overall is Fred VanVleet, who at 28-years old is tied for the youngest with Terry Rozier. He also only makes $21.2M, lowest of the four trade candidates.
Fred VanVleet also was the winner or co-winner in each of the individual rankings of which point guard candidate best fits the Los Angeles Lakers as a 3-point shooter, perimeter defender, and smart playmaker.

Here is a bio and stat profile for each of the five starting point guard candidates —Fred VanVleet, Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, Terry Rozier, and Dennis Schröder in ranked order of best fit for the Los Angeles Lakers.

1. Fred VanVleet, 28-Years Old, 6′ 1″, 197 lbs, 1-Year at $21.2M,
TYR: 19.1/4.3/6.5 in 36.9 mpg on 15.8/8.6/4.1 shots for 34.3%/33.6%/90.2%
Career: 14.2/3.3/5.1 in 29.3 mpg on 12.0/6.3/2.6 shots for 40.3%/37.6%/86.7%

2. Mike Conley, 35-Years Old, 6′ 1″, 175 lbs, 2-Years at $22.6M
TYR: 10.3/2.5/7.6 in 19.6 mpg on 8.8/5.1/2.0 shots for 39.1%/36.6%/80.0%
Career: 14.7/3.0/5.7 in 31.9 mpg on 11.9/4.1/3.3 shots for 43.8%/38.1%/81.9%

3. Kyle Lowry, 36-Years Old, 6′ 0″, 195 lbs, 2-Years at $28.3M
TYR: 12.4/4.4/5.4 in 33.7 mpg on 9.9/6.2/2.8 shots for 40.0%/33.5%/85.5%
Career: 14.7/4.4/6.3 in 32.0 mpg on 11.1/5.3/4.1 shots for 42.4%/36.7%/81.5%

4. Terry Rozier, 28-Years Old, 6′ 1″, 190 lbs, 4-years at $21.4M
TYR: 21.7/4.2/5.1 in 35.7 mpg on 19.5/8.1/3.3 shots for 41.7%/33.9%/82.2%
Career: 13.4/3.9/3.3 on 11.6/5.5/2.0 shots for 41.7%/37.1%/82.2%

5. Dennis Schröder, 29-Years Old, 6′ 1″, 172 lbs, 1-Year at $1.8M
TYR: 12.3/2.6/3.8 in 30.4 mpg on 9.6/3.6/3.4 shots for 42.2%/33.6%/88.7%
Career: 14.1/2.9/4.6 in 26.7 mpg on 12.0/3.4/2.9 shots for 43.5%/33.7%/83.6%