L.A.’s season has unfortunately come down to whether 38-year old LeBron James can don his Superman’s cape one more time and put the struggling 13–17 Lakers on his wide shoulders and carry them until AD gets back?
Frankly, that’s not only an unfair burden to put on LeBron James, who’s in the middle of an epic battle we’re all witnessing with Father Time, but also probably the Lakers only realistic chance of salvaging this doomed season.
The front office is already guilty of handicapping the team with a roster desperately in need of more size, shooting, and defense to win consistently. Unsure of the seriousness of Davis’ injury, the Lakers seem ready to punt.
Putting the onus on their 38-year old superstar seems patently unfair, especially after LeBron voluntarily signed an 1+1 extension rather than use that as leverage to force the Lakers to trade Westbrook and their picks.
Now AD’s injury has seemingly given Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office a chance to throw in the towel and sacrifice this season despite Anthony Davis playing like the MVP and LeBron fighting off Father Time.
Davis’ untimely injury has probably derailed any hopes of the Lakers going all-in to win a championship this season. Unless LeBron pulls off a miracle, it’s doubtful the Lakers will trade Westbrook and the picks to improve team.
What Qualifies As a Miracle from LeBron and Lakers?
So what would qualify as a miracle? What would give the Lakers’ front office enough confidence to go all-in and trade Westbrook and their two first round picks so LeBron and AD could possibly win #18 this season?
The answer is LeBron James and the Lakers winning at a rate that convinces the front office the season can still be salvaged and that there was still a chance they could beat the Celtics in the race to win #18.
But the only way that’s going to happen is if LeBron James pimp slaps Father Time and the rest of the NBA and goes on a memorable run to transform a broken roster into a team that wins more than looses.
The Lakers ’remaining 52 regular season games can be broken down into two groups: the 26 games to be played before the February 9 trade deadline and 26 games to be played after the February 9 trade deadline has passed.
The Lakers need a miracle parlay to finish top-six. They must first win 15 of 26 games before deadline to get to 28–28 and convince the Lakers to trade Russ and picks. Then they need to win 20 of the 26 games to finish 48–34.
It will be a challenge but it’s not too late for the Lakers to convince the front office to trade Russ and the picks. Nor is it too late for the Lakers to get a healthy AD back and make a trade to transform them into a contenders.
Can Lakers Mathematically Salvage Season?
How realistic are the chances of LeBron to rally the Lakers without AD and win 15 of the 26 games before the trade deadline? And if they accomplish that, what are their chances of winning 20 of 26 to close out the season?
Let’s take a look first at the 26 games the Lakers have to play before the trade deadline and see if there is a pathway that where LeBron could lead them to win 15 of those games and post a 28–28 record by the deadline.
The Lakers should be even or favored in 16 and underdogs in only 10 of 26. With luck, AD could be back before deadline. Bottom line, Lakers should have a good chance to win 15 of 26 and post a 28–28 record by the deadline.
Even if they get AD back, reach .500 before the deadline, and swap Russ and picks for rotation players, the Lakers face a near impossible challenge to win 20 of 26 to go from a 28–28 Play-In team to a 48–34 Playoff team.
To win the #6 seed in the Western Conference and avoid the Play-In Tournament, the Lakers will need to win 20 of the 26 games after the trade deadline to finish the regular season with a 48–34 win-loss record.
For the Lakers to be talking about throwing in the towel 30 games into a season where Anthony Davis was the best player in the league and LeBron James still dominant seems like a contradiction in logic and reality.
First of all, the Lakers received needed reassurance LeBron James and Anthony Davis could lead them to another championship, which really had become a question of concern due to injuries and losses the last two years.
Second, the West is a mess and there are no surefire championship teams, which is another reason why the Lakers need to keep their options open. Finally, there’s the Pelicans’ pick swap and Celtics shot at #18 to consider.
In the end, there is a pathway for the Lakers to become a .500 team before the trade deadline and even to finish the season with a strong closing run that cinches the #6 seed in the West with a 48–34 win-loss record.
Right now, nothing matters to the Lakers other than winning every game. Unless they can prove they can get to .500 and stay there without AD, there will be no help coming from the front office. Lakers simply have to get to and stay above .500 w/o AD.
Not sure if this a ‘prediction’ post, a ‘yeah there is a shred of hope’ post or a ‘we still need to make the super trade that will reverse the mistakes of the last 3 years!’ post. It seems like a bit of all 3, I guess?
Anyhow, let’s start with your own bullet points.
What Qualifies As a Miracle from LeBron and Lakers?
That has come and gone. A miracle would have been a roster that wasn’t going to hinge on a perfect trade for Westbrook or any other player. A miracle would have been AD and LBJ playing in all 82 games. A miracle would have been Nunn looking like the best version of himself and so on. The miracle came and went a long time ago. Now a miracle, for me at least, will be to just compete hard in all the remaining games. That means no more concession losses like the one we just saw in Phoenix. That means AD only misses a month or so. Since none of those things seem likely I would suggest moving on from hoping for a miracle.
Can Lakers Mathematically Salvage Season?
I like how you broke the season down into two chunks (26 before 2/9 and the 26 after). Handy it worked out like that. You didn’t really break down or explore what led you to the 16-10 mark you think the Lakers can achieve but I assume you didn’t just throw out an arbitrary number. I’m not going to predict what games will be wins and losses, I will predict that LeBron is going to miss at least 10 more games.
Since becoming a Laker The King has sat more than at any other stop in his storied career eclipsing the 60 game mark once. That was in the COVID shortened season. Injuries have largely affected his availability and those started 3 Christmas games ago vs. Golden State when he injured his groin. He played 55 games that season.
The following season he did play in 67 (out of the most possible for playoff/playin teams which was 75, 63 if you didn’t make the Bubble cut) and helped win a title; however, all of that came under unprecedented circumstances that won’t ever be repeated. The well-documented three month break and playoffs with no travel.
With the short turnaround the next season and a shorter, more compact season of 72 games LeBron played in only 45 games and was largely a non-factor in the playoffs in which the Lakers were knocked out in the first round. That gave LeBron an entire summer to heal, rehab and train.
Now, here we are and LeBron has missed 8 out of the 30 games played, already. 26% of potential games to play he has missed for a variety of reasons (usually some form of load management on that groin injury). With 52 remaining games we can equate that like so: take the 26% and compare it to the full 82 (in theory LeBron misses 21 total games if it stays at 26%) which would mean we’re due for at least another 13 games he doesn’t suit up for.
That means in our theoretical season (and this is all theoretical since ain’t nobody on the blog can see the future) we’re only going to lose games LeBron doesn’t play in except for 3. LeBron-led teams will, in essence, go 36-3 (accounting for the potential 13 games missed).
This doesn’t seem to take into account the three 5 game road trips that await us or the 6 back-to-back games (and we can probably just pencil LeBron in as ‘out’ on the backend of most of those) still left on the schedule. The last 26 games feature but one back-to-back and one 5 game road trip. I kind of assume you factored that in to your calculus, to some degree.
None of this is to say it’s not possible. It’s all possible, just incredibly highly unlikely. One might dare to say absurd in it’s hope. I don’t see the Lakers only losing 6 games to close the season out. I don’t see LeBron only missing 13 more games, although that’s got the highest degree of probability associated with it. More than anything I don’t see AD getting back in a month or less and I certainly don’t see him not getting hurt again.
The question the front office should be asking is what can they get for AD, let Russ and his deal expire, and try to be as competitive as possible next season. That’s not pulling the plug on this season, they did that this last summer. They did that when Rob wasn’t allowed (or whatever) to make a trade, when Rob built a roster with no shooters or size to speak of and hoped that the Laker Cabal would let him actually do his job.
At any rate, I applaud your hope. I don’t share it but it’s nice to see you fighting against the tide, screaming into the wind and hoping against hope that something breaks our way. I’m not sure when or how we angered the Basketball Gods but it has been done. The Lakers would do well to start looking for atonement. We may just be watching the end of a great career in the midst of a large amount of losing. Not everyone goes out like Kareem. Few do, in reality.