We are at the point in the offseason where summer league is done and teams are, well, they’re all just sitting there. Most player movement and big deals happen up to or during summer league. Not a hard rule and of course trades or signings are likely to continue all the way until camp starts but the generally the big splashes and names have already been handled at this point. Not this season. Since Mongo said he was going fishing we’re going with that theme for this 5er.
- Seismic shifts making waves. I wrote at the beginning of the Lakers summer while the playoffs were all but done (maybe just after, hard to recall…) that it would take some seismic shifts in the NBA to shake a Russell Westbrook trade loose. Well, that happened alright. After Kyrie opted into his deal everyone thought the Nets were set to start building out the roster-oh wait Kevin Durant asked for a trade. Boom. Then the Jazz traded Gobert to Minny for a King’s ransom. Blammo. Then they put Donovan Mitchell sorta kinda maybe on the trading block for a double King’s ransom. Kablooey. Those were the kinds of things I thought would have to happen for a Russ trade to have a sliver of hope.
- Bait’s in the water but nothing’s biting. Durant is till a Net. So is Kyrie. Mitchell’s market is robust but the ask is pretty danged high (as it should be a star on the rise who is only 25). All these bombs dropped but very little shook loose. In fact the opposite happened, everything kind of just froze up and locked in place. Utah is asking for 7 (!) first round draft picks for Spyda. The Nets want a Gobert-esque haul for KD. They’re holding out hope of squeezing two 1st rounders from LA to lose Kyrie…maybe…or they want to keep him, hard to tell. Teams around the league have started filling out the back end of their rosters, except the Spurs who can afford to wait. There are a grip of un-signed free agents of impact and with summer league over there will likely be a lull of a couple weeks before things maybe heat up again prior to camp starting.
- Big Fish still out there. Russell is still a Laker. Listen to Darvin Ham and he seems intent on making it work. Like many of the Laker statements these days that should come with a “well what else is he supposed to say?” caveat. Darvin will have to make it work with whatever roster he inherits from Rob. The Lakers though are seemingly polarized into inaction by caution. Is LeBron going to sign that extension on 8/4? That’s the Big Fish question and everything is dictated by how that breaks. Personally I actually don’t see any big moves happening until that day because it is at that time LeBron can comment on what he wants in order to make that happen. That’s 22 days away. Time enough for executives to go on vacation and come back. Camp starts in September-ish, between LeBron’s date and then there will be time enough to get a deal done, should a deal be found.
- Cut bait and run? What are the 2027 and 2029 Laker 1st round draft picks truly worth? Remember they’re not the only picks we have access to, the other ones just can’t be traded until draft night of their respective summers. Or, crazy idea here, we could actually pick some young players with them! Regardless the Lakers will actually have one of either next or the following summer’s draft pick (based on what NOLA does). Get into it here. So, knowing that there will be pathways forward to draft young talent it’s curious to see the Lakers hold the line so staunchly regarding those 2 picks. There are two theories I have: one the Lakers realize how they have frittered away draft assets in pursuit of ill-fitting veterans and have chosen to stop doing that, Jeannie has clipped Rob’ wings a little bit…at least for now until we hear from The King. My guess is the second one. I think, for good or ill, Jeannie is asserting herself a little more. I don’t think the Lakers will trade those away without a firm commitment from LeBron. That’s smart, in my opinion. Everyone is saying all sorts of nice things but we’re talking about the same guy that left Cleveland in spectacular fashion on live TV, Miami without much notice and is now obligated to remain quiet until 8/4. This feels to many like a time to rush forward and do whatever one thinks may please LeBron. I am not one of those people. The Lakers have to do right by the Lakers and that means taking all the factors into consideration. LeBron is under contract next season and can sign an extension any time. He won’t demand a trade (or if so will look pretty silly doing so) and we won’t trade him (Jeannie has said as much up to this point saying even he doesn’t sign his extension they won’t consider trading him). James can’t say what he wants right now. So waiting is prudent if not really all that exciting.
- The one that got away? With the news that the Indy deal is “dead” some panic may begin to creep into those who see a trade of Westbrook as the only way forward. First off no deal is dead until the players on said team aren’t on the team, have no-trade clauses, or veto rights. So it’s just dead for the time being because everyone is moving on for a few weeks. LeBron’s date is the key to everything. It opens all the doors for what he might want in this moment, allows him to voice his opinion and provide the information the Lakers obviously feel like they need to move forward. Is that smart? I don’t know. I think that it would probably be better for the Lakers to trade Russ one way or the other, if they can, but I am also of the opinion that you can’t so heavily sabotage the future to do so. Yes, they’re only 2 draft picks but they’re likely to be decent as neither AD or LeBron are likely to be on the team by then. By that logic they’re the two most valuable for the Lakers. That they represent the best chances to rebuild prior to 2030. I have to applaud the Lakers stance tis summer as it’s one I’ve long wanted them to adopt: open for business but we’re not suckers and we don’t throw draft picks away like it’s a fire sale. Cost-controlled players who re top ten picks can be franchise altering. If you’re not getting back a sure-fire banner competing team for them you’re doing yourself wrong by tossing them away. Buddy Heild is not that player, nether is Myles Turner. Frankly, given the fact he’s only averaged 55 games/season for his career, neither is Kyrie Irving. There’s still plenty of time, as well. A lot could change internally for all parties involved. The Nets could decide running it back as-is is preferable. The Pacers seem to want both for two decent players but that doesn’t change the fact that one of those players is injury prone (Myles Turner who has played in fewer than 50 games the past two seasons) and a defensive sieve in Buddy. Sorry but that deal is just not worth both of those draft picks.
In the end desperation is a bad look for anyone at the bargaining table. The Lakers have done a decent job of holding the line on what assets they have. That’s smart and a nice change to see happening after the last 3 summers where we threw good players at bad along with draft picks all in the name of silly tweaks to a roster that won it all. For all those moves we’ve made we basically have fewer draft picks and Russell Westbrook to show for it. That’s not really a track record of success. Where the Lakers do have a track record of success is in the draft and so I like that they are realizing where their strengths and weaknesses lie. That may not sync up with LeBron’s timeline. If so, so be it. That’s the nature of the NBA and LeBron will either be here or he won’t. One way or another the games will be played.
Fabulous Fiver, Jamie. One of the best imo. Props also to Mongo for the fishing theme. Waiting is certainly the Hardest Part.
1. Seismic shifts. I remember well your predicting that a possible seismic shift could shake up the Westbrook situation. You were certainly right so props. Good reminder that this is not our father’s NBA.
Player empowerment is getting even more aggressive and is unlikely to change. The small market owners will try to put a lid on player empowerment but the players and big market owners are fine with the constant player movement.
Truth is player empowerment is kind of like our climate crisis. Seismic shifts expected.
2. Baits in the Water. Love the progression of the fishing theme.
What’s added to the frustration is team’s not trusting giving up the barn for KD, thus he has become the road block for other moves. He could easily end up as a Net next season. My guess is Kyrie still gets traded to the Lakers as I don’t see Brooklyn or KD wanting to run it back with him.
3. Big Fish Still Out There. The tension mounts.
Could the Lakers end up catching nothing but a bottom feeding carp rather than the sleek starfish they’re seeking?
I agree August 4th is a day where we could see some clarity. Could LeBron sign an extension? Or will he leave the Lakers hanging and say he will wait and see. That could change everything. Better subtitle might have been Storm Brewing.
4. Cut Bait and Run. Good header but this is where you and I split.
First, the idea the Lakers are giving up their only draft picks is BS. They have guaranteed pick every other year and have two future picks tied up with swaps that will come free. They only owe 1 pick from the AD deal.
Second, the chances of LeBron and the Lakers separating at this point in miniscule. LeBron wants to be here. Who knows how many years he still has? He’s not at this age going to want to pick up stakes and move to another team.
Third, I think there’s a third possibility for Jeanie’s position on picks, which is it’s part of PR campaign to make Lakers appear less desperate.
5. The one that got away. Great ending subtitle. Pure genius.
Hopefully, this won’t be our ending. Thought the topic would lead to discussion of not offering the second pick when we might have closed the deal for Kyrie or for the Pacers. I do agree the deal is not dead until the assets involved have been dealt.
The picks are meaningless at this point. The Lakers or even the team you trade those picks to will never use them for players. Those picks will become a form of baseball’s own crypto currency as they’re traded numerous times.
Arguing that using them for Turner and Hield would be shortsighted is silly. Holding onto the picks is the only way the Lakers could convince LeBron James to leave.
Great Post Jamie, you are spot on. There are a lot of dominos that have to fall before it’s the Lakers turn. I also like the Lakers approach. They haven’t caved in to Lebrons pressure and are trying to make the best possible deal. I’m with you on Turner and Buddy. I wouldn’t give up both firsts for them. Turner would be a marginal upgrade. Yes he is a good drop down defender and a great shot blocker, but he also is hunted on defense on the perimeter and while he can hit the 3 he is a below average 3 point shooter that I wouldn’t want taking a lot of them. And there is a reason Buddy was a bench player for a bad team. Shooting is the only thing he brings to the table.we could be a little better with them but not contender better. I think you only trade both firsts if it gives you a punchers chance at a title. A Kyrie trade may do that, especially if a healthy Harris were included but it still is risky if you don’t win it all. Kyrie has left a bad taste in every team he’s ever played for mouth. He could easily be a one and done player with the Lakers because nobody knows where his head will be next season, even Kyrie.
I have to disagree with you on Myles Turner, Michael. I think the key to this season is reducing the workload on LeBron and AD and letting them play the 3 and 4 rather than going against bigger, tougher defenders by playing the 4 and 5.
I think Turner is criticial in that he gives us a young stretch five who is perfect to play alongside Anthony Davis, who is better facing the basket than posting up and better as a help shot blocker than primary low post defender.
I’m not a fan of having Kyrie be our point of attack defender or having unproven Jones or Bryant playing stretch five and rim protector. I would much prefer adding Turner and playing with a real two bigs.
Unproven? Thomas was a rising star in the league before the injuries. If he didn’t have the set backs you may have been wanting to trade for him. If he’s healthy he is also perfect along side AD. And lest we forget Turner hasn’t actually been a picture of health either. So either way you are betting on a healthy season. I’ll roll with the guy that is not costing two draft picks. And Bryant is a couple of years younger with room to grow. He’s a hustle player and is one of the best in the league at running the floor. A slight upgrade at center and a bench scorer isn’t going to get us to a contender level. Plus next year you are not going to let Turner walk for nothing and Buddy has 20 mil left on his contract. So you will have 40+ mil to replace Westbrooks 47 mil so again not a lot of options to improve the team.
My words from above: “Remember they’re not the only picks we have access to, the other ones just can’t be traded until draft night of their respective summers. ”. I’m well aware of our future draft asset stratus. They are the only assets we can trade now, later in the season if something goes wrong, next summer at any time and so on. The other picks, lovely as they are, can only be traded on draft day. We will not know if NOLA is swapping 2024 pick until they announce it, if we’re healthy it’s likely next summer. Hence my multiple declarations that NOLA is, in essence, also holding one of OUR draft picks hostage until they choose. That one being 2026. Can’t be traded if NOLA picks out 2025…until it’s relative draft day. This is all fairly plainly written up there. The 2027 and 2029 (are hell, let’s start including the next decade in the convo and add 2030!) are the only tools available for several years that can be used…in season…to improve the roster. Those are not tools to be wasted in a mid grade improvement. I’ve never bought the certainty of the “addition by subtraction” argument. First off it’s being made in a vacuum, but more importantly it’s an overpay to burn both picks on those two players. I don’t see how that’s not as plain as the nose on all of our faces. The Lakers have had a bad habit of burning good assets on bad players and, worse to my opinion, players we turn around and let walk for nothing. That’s not building. That’s not smart. That’s silly and wasteful, especially given the facts as to how Jeannie wants to keep costs down. Know how to do that? Draft players who are cost-controlled. Of course, then you get Rob selling short with Christie with just a 2 year deal so there’s little hope he has any clue he knows what he’s doing at this point. The man is inept.