There’s a growing consensus among those who dislike or doubt the Los Angeles Lakers that there’s just no way they can fix their roster problems this summer to become a legitimate championship contender next season.
On the surface, that projection seems inevitable considering the Lakers only won 33 games this season and there was no interest at the trade deadline for Westbrook or Horton-Tucker, the team’s best trading chips as players. What‘s different now is the Lakers have two first round picks to sweeten trades and Westbrook’s bad contract has now become an appealing $47 million expiring contract for teams looking to dump bad contracts.
In addition to trading Westbrook and Horton-Tucker, the Lakers should also make a strategic decision to hard cap themselves next season, which would then require them to remain under a $155.7 million total salaries hard cap. The benefits of being hard capped include not paying major luxury taxes, getting the full $10.4 million MLE and $4.1 million BAE instead of the $6.3 million mini-MLE, and being able to receive free agents via sign-and-trades.
The Laker should be able to get at least three rotation players who earn between $15 and $20 million per year in return for trading Russell Westbrook, Talen Horton-Tucker, and the team’s two first round draft picks. Additionally, the Lakers should also be able to sign two or three legitimate rotation players using their $10.4 million MLE and $4.1 million BAE. These would all be major upgrades over last season’s minimum salary players.
The Lakers have a path to add five or six legitimate rotation players to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis this summer. So let’s take a look at whom the Lakers might be targeting via both trade and free agency.
RUSSELL WESTBROOK TRADE
The Lakers’ top offseason priority is to trade Westbrook for two legitimate rotation players. Because they would have to take $50 to $100 million in bad contracts, the Lakers should not be willing to include picks to move Russ.
Whether it’s posturing or serious, the Lakers have been hinting they would keep Westbrook if they cannot find a trade for him rather than swapping him to Houston for Wall’s identical deal or waiving and stretching him. Because salaries have to match, the Lakers’ goal in trading Westbrook is to break his contract into two or three smaller contracts. Ideally, the Lakers would like to trade him for two players making around $20 million.
Here are four player trades with teams looking to create cap space by dumping players on long-term contracts for ones on expiring contracts. Rob Pelinka and the Lakers should be able to pull off one of these four trades.
1. Indiana Pacers Trade for Malcolm Brogdon and Buddy Hield
Malcolm Brogdon (3 years and $67.8M) and Buddy Hield (2 years and $42.2M) are probably the best package the Lakers could hope to get for Russell Westbrook’s $47 million expiring contract without a draft pick. Opportunities available to expand trade should include Myles Turner.
2. Charlotte Hornets Trade for Gordon Hayward and Kelly Oubre, Jr
Gordon Hayward (2 years and $60M) and Kelly Oubre, Jr. (1 year and $12.6M) are probably the second best package the Lakers could get back for Russell Westbrook without including a first round draft pick. Opportunities available to replace Oubre include Terry Rozier or P. J. Washington.
3. Houston Rockets Trade for Christian Wood, Eric Gordon, David Nwaba
Eric Gordon (2 years and $39.0M), Christian Wood (1 year and $14.3M), and Davis Nwaba (2 years and $10.0M) would be the third best package in return for Russell Westbrook’s $47 million expiring contract without a draft pick. Lakers are not interested in swapping Westbrook for John Wall.
4. New York Knicks Trade for Julius Randle and Evan Fournier
Julius Randle (4 years and $104.4M) and Evan Fournier (3 year and $54.0M) are probably the fourth best package the Lakers could get for Russell Westbrook and his expiring contract without a draft pick. Opportunities to expand trade should include Derrick Rose and Cam Reddish.
TALEN HORTON-TUCKER TRADE
Horton-Tucker is the other Lakers player besides Russell Westbrook whom the Lakers must trade this offseason. There is a good chance that THT might be included in an expanded version of the Russell Westbrook trade.
While he’s only 21-years old, Horton-Tucker possesses dominating physical measurements. He has a 7′ 1″ wingspan, Kawhi Leonard sized hands, and a powerful body that weighs more than any other shooting guard in the NBA. While THT is not a great fit on the Lakers and needs to be on a young team surrounded by shooters where he could grow and develop into an elite two-way shooting guard/small forward, he still possesses exceptional upside.
Here are four possible THT trades that target potential Lakers starters and include one or two Lakers’ first round draft picks. Pelinka and the Lakers should be able to pull off one of these four trades for key rotation player.
1. Detroit Pistons Trade for Jerami Grant
Trading THT, Nunn, Gabriel, and their 2027 and 2029 first round draft picks for an elite young 6′ 8″ 3&D wing Jerami Grant is probably the Lakers’ best available Horton-Tucker trade. Getting Grant would cost the Lakers two first round picks but fills what is thought to be their defensive weakness.
2. Indiana Pacers Trade for T.J. Warren
The Lakers would have to agree to be hardcapped at $155.7 million if they were to pull off a sign-and-trade for Indiana Pacers free agent T. J. Warren, who’s essentially been injured the past two years. Warren would be the Lakers second best return for a Talen Horton-Tucker trade this summer.
3. Brooklyn Nets Trade for Nic Claxton
As with T.J. Warren, a sign-and-trade for Nic Claxton would also require the Lakers to accept a $155.7 million hard cap for next season. Claxton is a defensive specialist who can protect the rim and defend the perimeter. His defense is good enough that small ball teams cannot play him off the court.
4. New York Knicks Trade for Cam Reddish
Cam Reddish would also be a great fit as the Lakers young bigger 3&D wing. THT and our 2027 first round pick should be enough to incentivize the Knicks to trade Reddish to the Lakers. New York didn’t really integrate Reddish into their rotations as he only played 14.4 mpg during the season.
MID LEVEL EXCEPTION
One of the strategic keys to the Lakers being able to rebuild a championship caliber roster this summer is being able to live with being hard capped with total team salaries to be under $155.7 million for next season.
The Lakers’ three major benefits of being hard capped are (1) the standard $10.4 million MLE, (2) the $4.0 million BAE, and (3) the ability to receive a restricted or unrestricted free agent in a a sign-and-trade transaction. That’s a total of $14.4 million to spend on free agents vs. $6.4 million if not hard capped. Not counting possible sign-and-trades, that means one $10 million and one $5 million per year player or three $5 million players.
Here are four possible free agent starters the Lakers could target with their full standard $10.4 million MLE. Rob Pelinka and the Lakers should be able to sign one of these four players to start with their Mid Level Exception.
1. Isaiah Hartenstein, Los Angeles Clippers Center
Isaiah Hartenstein should be the Lakers top free agent target and they should be willing to use their full $10.4 million MLE if necessary. He can be the modern rim protector and floor stretcher the Lakers need. Hartenstein is the Clippers version of Monk in that they can only offer him $4.7 million.
2. Bruce Brown, Brooklyn Nets Small Forward
Bruce Brown is second on the list of free agent prospects whom the Lakers could pursue with part or all of the $10.4 million full MLE. An elite defender who plays bigger than his 6′ 4″ body, Brown would be a great starting 3&D shooting guard and small forward and perfect fit next to LeBron and AD.
3. Pat Connaughton, Milwaukee Bucks Shooting Guard
Should Pat decline his player option to become an unrestricted free agent, the Lakers should try and sign him with their $10.4 million MLE. Pat is not only an elite defender but also a dead eye 3-point shooter. He would be an elite add to the Lakers for the same reason he’s been so good for the Bucks.
4. Jalen Smith, Indiana Pacers Power Forward
Jalen Smith is another player like Warren or Monk whose likely to leave his current team. The Pacers do not have the ability to match his market value since they declined the third year option on his rookie contract. Smith will certainly receive offers greater than the $5 million the Pacers can pay.
BI-ANNUAL EXCEPTION
The Los Angeles Lakers are eligible to use their $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception this season to sign one player this season provided they elect to become hard capped at $155.7 million in total salaries for the year.
Being able to sign a non-minimum salary player via the BAE gives the Lakers another opportunity to add an important role player to the roster. The two trades and MLE and BAE will let the Lakers to build a deep roster. The Lakers want a rotation with no minimum salary players. Assuming an 8 or 9 player rotation, that means the Lakers need to add six or seven new quality rotation players to superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Here are four possible free agent players the Lakers could target with their $4.1 million BAE. Rob Pelinka and the Lakers should be able to sign one of these four rotation players to their Bi-Annual Exception.
1. Otto Porter, Jr., Golden State Warriors Power Forward
Otto Porter, Jr. should be the Lakers top target for their $4.1M BAE. The Warriors are likely to be moving on from several minimum salary players as James Wiseman and Jonathan Kuminga take on more minutes. Porter is a perfect bigger 3&D wing who can shoot the three and defend big wings.
2. Nemanja Bjelica, Golden State Warriors Power Forward
Nemanja Bjelica is the next Golden State minimum salary player who would be a perfect fit on the Lakers. Nemanja has good size and mobility and is an elite 3-point shooter who complements James and Davis. He should be the Lakers second choice for their Bi-Annual Exception.
3. Gary Payton II, Golden State Warriors Shooting Guard
Gary Payton II is another Warriors’ minimum salary player who’s likely to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and would be a perfect candidate to sign with the Lakers for their B-Annual Exception. Payton is an elite defender who should fit in great coming off the bench with the Lakers.
4. Damian Lee, Golden State Warriors Shooting Guard
Damian Lee is another minimum salary player who’s earned regular minutes in the Warriors’ rotation but is likely to be allowed to walk as a free agent this summer. Lee can play defense, shoot the three, and is a bench player who’s proven he can play well on a contending team.
https://twitter.com/LakerTom/status/1529255967195484160
https://twitter.com/LakerTom/status/1529257409931190272
I’ve tried to figure out what would be my top four picks in Russ trade, a THT trade, a $10.4M MLE, and a $4.1M BAE. It’s my offseason ‘roster building’ magnus opus. Hope you enjoy it. Please let me know whom you like and whom I missed. There’s a great Lakers team to be built. Thanks.
Aloha Tom, while I won’t say that none of your Russ trades won’t happen, I will say that most of the names have value and other teams will be interested in them as well. Their teams will look for ways to return a better package then just dumping them. In most cases Russ would be the last resort. The one exception would be Hayward. I don’t see many teams interested in him due to his age, injury history and salary. Although without a pick you would probably have to substitute Plumlee for Oubre. Obure is a useful player that they either will keep or use in a trade for the center they are shopping for. As for the Rockets they are not going to take Russ and keep Wall. That’s nearly a 100 mil in dead money. You might look at using THT to get Wood instead.
Okay Tom, here is my favorite THT trade. The Lakers send THT, Nunn and hopefully only a 2nd round pick to the Raptors for OG Anunoby. He’s only 24 and at 6’ 7” with a 7’ 2” wing span he is long like most of the Raptors wings. He is a classic 3 and D wing that is .371 lifetime from 3. Why would the Raptors do this deal? Well first, they really like THT. They tried to get him for Lowry and in that 3 way trade at the deadline with the Knicks that fell apart. They also did not have a viable back up PG which Nunn would be perfect for. And wings are the one position they are deep at. Barnes is already flashing superstar potential and will probably start next year. The one problem is they are hunting for a center and would probably use OG if say Turner comes on the market. Still they will have their full MLE to use and there will be centers out there.
Good suggestion, Michael. I like OG and he plays bigger than 6′ 7.” I understand the Lakers not wanting to give up a FRP in a Westbrook trade as they need them to make a THT trade worth more. The only time I would give up a pick in a Russ trade is if it were expanded to include better players.
Players like Anunoby who are young and talented are exactly the kind of players we need both to win right now and not throw away our future. We just need five or six of them which isn’t going to happen. Be lucky to get three who can start and complement LeBron and AD.
Quite the magnum opus there, LT.
I like all of these trades in a vacuum, obviously I’ve moved on from hoping THT finds his game as a Laker and don’t ever see him as anything more than capable role player on a competitive team. To get a player of Grant’s caliber would be, in my opinion, a heckuva coup.
Getting to a place where we could hard cap ourselves is trickier. As you know I don’t think we’ll end up trading Russ this summer. Without trading Russ there is no path available to put ourselves in the position to use those spending tools.
However, should we trade Russ and open up those spending tools I like all of those players. It would also put us back in play to retain the services of Monk. The spending tools we can use via the hard cap is the one thing I hold out hope for regarding Rob’s odd stance to trading Russ without additional draft picks in the mix.
Thanks for reading and commenting, Jamie. I’ve had this article in the works for about a week, trying to find a way to include the latest posturing by the Lakers regarding a possible Russ trade and narrow down the best 4 options for Russ trade, THT trade, MLE, and BAE.
Who knows what will happen this summer. I remain optimistic and believe we will end up trading Russ in a slightly expanded deal where we give up a pick for maybe better players than the first offers. For example, maybe we give the Hornets Russ and a pick and they give us Hayward and Washington instead of Hayward and Oubre. It’s part of my Westbrook Rules.
Monk and Nunn are two wild cards that could help the Lakers. Monk could be one of the targets for the MLE and we might keep Nunn as we need a backup point guard. We need 3 starters and 5 reserves or 8 players to fill out roster. Nunn could reduce that to just 7, which we might be able to get from trades and exceptions.
I’m optimistic about the Lakers hard capping because it gives us another $8 million to spend on free agents and we know the Lakers do not like to pay luxury taxes so this could easily happen. The ability to receive a S&T player and get $8 million more in free agents could be a life saver for the Lakers this summer.
We’ll see, I still got 50/50 odds Russ will be on our roster come camp.
Hope you’re wrong. I think he burned that bridge in his final interview as a Laker. He won’t ever put on purple and gold again.
There are no burned bridges. Kobe wanted to play on Pluto, remember?