Aloha,
I still see the Hornets as the most likely trade partner simply because Hayward will be hard to trade because of his salary, age and injury history. I’m afraid some of the other possibilities are just pipe dreams. Let’s just look at one example why.
The Knicks are in desperate need of a point guard. They can send Noel, Burks and Walker for Brogdon and Buddy, plus the Knicks own all their 1st rounders and the Mav’s first next year. The Pacers do it to clear their books plus receive 2 useful players in Burks and Noel who both have club options the following year. The added bonus for them is they only have to waive Walkers 9 mil instead of Westbrooks 47 mil. And the get a first rounder probably next year. For the Knicks they get their point guard they need and a useful player in Buddy. Plus they only probably have to give up one pick because of the value of Noel and Burks.
Then with Noel on board if they can’t extend Turner they can trade him to the Raptors. The Raptors need a center and were after him before he was hurt. The Raptors could send 24 year old OG Anunoby to the Pacers, probably straight up. OG is actually one of my targets if we trade AD to the Raptors. He is a 6’ 7” wing, excellent defender averaging 17 a game and is a .365 3 point shooter. That would probably be enough although the Raptors have picks to spare as well. The Raptors do this deal because Scottie Barnes was amazing this year and would slide into OG’s spot.
The point here is there will be competition for good players and it is unlikely that the good players will be simply dumped for salary. These teams will turn over every rock before dumping. This is another reason I don’t expect anything soon.
Been saying all along the Pacers can get much better offers for quality, desirable players than the heinous Russ deal and draft picks eons away. Trading for Hayward gives you 3 players you’d be lucky to have play 60% of the season. All roads point to you’re better off blowing up this puppy.
Aloha, Michael,
I think the Pacers and Hornets trades are both very possible. The question is whether the Lakers can expand either of the trades.
I also think you need to understand that these trades are being made for financial rather than talent purposes. Westbrook gives those teams a chance to dump salary without having to give up a first round draft pick to do it. That is why there will be multiple offers for the Lakers to trade Russ.
Russ for Hield and Brogdon or Hayward and Oubre would be deals so valuable to the Pacers and Hornets because they would not require them to give up a pick to dump the salaries.
In fact, the wild card is the Pacers or Hornets could even get two first round draft as a sweetener back if they expanded the trade to be for Turner, Hield, and Brogdon or Hayward, Rozier, and Oubre.
The reality is the Lakers have a big advantage because there are multiple teams they could trade Westbrook too and no real competition with a similar expiring contract to open the door for the Pacers or Hornets to clean up their books and open up cap space and avoid future luxury taxes.
I think everyone understands why the Pacers would do the deal Tom. I simply pointed out that they are likely to be able do better, that’s why I said I think the Hornets is more likely because there will not be the same interest in Hayward as there is in Brogdon and especially Turner. All the articles I have read agree that Russ is likely to be bought out no matter who trades for him. Everyone knows the Knicks are looking for a point guard. If the Pacers do the deal I proposed, the Pacers get out from under the contracts they don’t want, obtain draft picks in the next couple of years and land 2 players that they can use or trade. Noel and Burks both have team options in 2023 so they have trade value. And they only have to waive Walkers 9 mil instead of Westbrooks 47 mil. The Knicks are happy as well because they get Walker off the books. From every perspective except a Laker fans, that’s a much better deal. And if they trade Turner to the Raptors for a guy like OG, they get a 24 year that fits their time line and is every bit as talented on the wing as Turner is at center. They could possibly pick up another draft pick there as well. I clearly see why the Pacer would deal with the Lakers but only as a last resort. And you are the only one that thinks the Pacers do the deal without draft picks. Every single article I’ve read believe that the Lakers have to give up their picks for Brogdon and Buddy. While I would love to land Brogdon even with his injury history, it’s more likely that we end up with a player like Hayward and hope he can stay healthy.
I don’t know in what reality you’d need to offer sweeteners to move off Turner, Hield, or Brogdon. Teams can actually use these guys as opposed to Russ whose contract has far exceeded his usefulness on an NBA floor.
The debate here seems to be the difference between what could happen and what is likely to happen. I think Michael’s take is the more realistic version of events for the following reasons:
1) Pacers have long stated they don’t do full rebuilds. Yes, they shop their players…all teams do that for the majority of the guys on the roster. There’s nothing that has altered that stance, not even when they traded George for Oladipo (at the time) and Sabonis. So, to imagine that they will now go full rebuild and trade away the entire core of their roster for a player they will buy out and 2 others likely to walk after the season for two draft picks five years from now does not seem realistic. Could it happen? Again, sure. Will it happen? Highly unlikely. Shrinking the trade w/Indy makes more sense rather than trying to hit the walk off grand slam. Or swap Rubio for Brogdon and ask for a 2nd rounder this summer and bring back a room exception to keep Monk.
2) New York. Started signaling early that they were not interested in Russ. No reason to not take them at their word, honestly. Russ isn’t a Thibb’s style guy in that Tom and Russ both want to do it their way and I don’t see those ways meshing all that much. Is there a glimmer it could happen because Rose can’t go 82 at his age/injury history and Russ is ready to play all day, every day? I don’t think so, these aren’t the Phil Jackson run Knicks taking on bloated contracts for mediocre role players that fit into a philosophical approach to the game, they’ve pivoted to a smarter brand of running the team from the top down and, despite this season, I think it’s working for them. Not surprisingly the Knicks and Pacers are linked in the trade rumor world, too. Along with the Kings and Pistons so…no surprise…the rest of the league is looking at the same handful of available-ish players we all are. I don’t see any deal with new York happening that involves Russ.
3) Hornets. Seems the most likely to happen and the trade I would actually NOT make. Westbrook for hayward creates a logjam at the three. LeBron is best at the 3/4 (for LeBron, not for the Lakers) and Hayward, at this point is the same. Too slow and broken to defend fast guys, not big enough to or athletic enough to be a good rebounder and Hayward’s injury history is quickly becoming the stuff of legend. I’d angle for a Oubre, Plumlee, Washington or even an extended Trezz over Hayward. Hornets are under the cap so could add a trade exception. Problem with that is now they have a guard problem so you have to sell them hard on the savings for a Russ buyout. Feels like they would only trade Russ for Gordon and that, for me, is a no-go zone. Also the most likely of the trades to happen, unfortunately and Rob will likely be functioning in panic mode to keep his job.
I expect Russ to be dealt, his exit interview all but cemented it. But the return will be a lateral move. We will not get more than, at best, one quality player back. Expanding it, in my mind, makes it more difficult to move him because you’re only attaching players who will walk next season so unless a team thinks it can use nearly $60 million in cap space in 2023-24 to rebuild the roster as they see fit why make the trade?
Here’s a list of the 2023 UFAs:
PG
Patrick Beverley (35)
Eric Bledsoe (34)
George Hill (37)
Reggie Jackson (33)
Frank Ntilikina (25)
D’Angelo Russell (27)
Ish Smith (35)
Gabe Vincent (27)
Kemba Walker (33)
SG
Will Barton (32)
Sterling Brown (28)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (30)
Seth Curry (33)
Terence Davis (26)
Javonte Green (30)
Josh Richardson (30)
Terrence Ross (32)
Nik Stauskas (30)
SF
Keita Bates-Diop (27)
Bojan Bogdanovic (34)
Dillon Brooks (27)
Torrey Craig (33)
Danny Green (36)
Maurice Harkless (30)
Justin Holiday (34)
LeBron James (39)
Caris LeVert (29)
Kelly Oubre (28)
Max Strus (27)
Andrew Wiggins (28)
Kenrich Williams (29)
Justise Winslow (27)
PF
Harrison Barnes (31)
Marquese Chriss (26)
Jae Crowder (33)
Danilo Gallinari (35)
Jerami Grant (29)
Juan Hernangomez (28)
Maxi Kleber (31)
Kevin Love (35)
Larry Nance Jr. (30)
Georges Niang (30)
Dario Saric (29)
Christian Wood (28)
C
Steven Adams (30)
Taj Gibson (38)
Al Horford (37)
Nikola Jokic (28)
Alex Len (30)
Brook Lopez (35)
Boban Marjanovic (35)
Chimezie Metu (26)
Mason Plumlee (33)
Jakob Poeltl (28)
Dwight Powell (32)
Myles Turner (27)
Nikola Vucevic (33)
Moritz Wagner (26)
There really aren’t a lot of head-turning free agents coming on the market. Jokic leads the pack and he’s quite likely to stay in Denver. The best players on the list are also not likely to be looking at small market teams first. There aren’t a lot of max money players on that list to begin with. So all that wonderful cap space starts to have a little less luster on it. Especially for a small market team in a state with income taxes, and possibly other social issues that could easily affect how some of these guys feel about signing there. Being a business, as it is, the likelihood is that some team or other will over-pay for Wiggins, Wood, Vucevic, Brooks, or D-Russ. Is that worth gutting the roster to buyout Russ?
All I’m saying is that the Russ option for a team is highly unlikely to be option #1 on their internal big board. It’s not a good one, it’s basucally admitting defeat because you’re going to buy him out and hope for a 1st rounder or two 5 years out for your troubles. Expanding it to include THT & Nunn isn’t necessarily a great or even good idea. Unless you’re looking to feature Nunn or THT and bet on them being able to take big steps forward (doubtful in Nunn’s case and THT has shown zero consistency) Klutch will maneuver THT to a bigger market and Nunn will move on. A ton of factors working against a great trade for Russ. A lateral trade is far more likely.
Which brings one back to the question of is it even worth it to trade Russ at all?
How dare you bring logic & common sense to these fantasy trade scenarios!! We only look at these things from how the Lakers benefit here sir. Somebody WILL blow up their entire roster in order to make Christian Wood the centerpiece of their organization..lol
What can I say? I like to swim upstream.