If a trade happens (likely won’t) it’ll be on the last day. We don’t have anything close to premium assets. When you see that other teams have:
A) 1st rounders that can be used within the next 5 years.
B) Rotational players who can produce more consistently and better than THT has shown he can.
C) More than just Vet minimum filler to toss in.
D) Aren’t trying to make a player who has yet to see the floor a secondary centerpiece.
It should become pretty obvious that we’re not functioning from a position of strength on the trade market. Add in the fact that probably zero teams want to do us favors (like NOLA tweaking the AD deal at this point or Sacramento taking our calls after the bridges got burned this summer) and the likelihood we make a deal prior to the last couple of hours before the deadline passes becomes basically nil.
Furthermore, Jeannie has said she wants to see this work as-is before blowing it up. So now you have about 2 weeks prior to the deadline. That’s 8 games. They’re gonna use those games to see what they have. If the Lakers are an incredible 6-2 over the next 8 I think they stand pat barring a no-brainer offer.
They need to hold onto the nearly next decade 1st rounder in order to make a Westbrook deal this summer a possibility. Nobody trading for him in a straight swap unless it’s for a busted up, broken down player like John Wall (Achilles, knee) or a someone who claims the pressure of playing in Philly is simply too much…but LA would be great!!! That would of course be Ben Simmons.
I don’t see us getting Simmons. If Kyrie holds out on not getting vaxxed he won’t be eligible for playoff home games which basically means the Nets, who are likely to have homecourt advantage through at least the 1st 2 rounds, will be playing a superstar down in the games they should have the best shot of winning. That means that Brooklyn will be faced with potentially choosing between a grumpy James Harden and an enigmatic Kyrie Irving. My guess is one of them goes to Philly in a Ben Simmons deal at that point. Likely Harden.
I don’t see the logic in John Wall. Like many, many, many players before him he has suffered injuries to the things he relies on the most to excel at the game of basketball: his legs. Knee and Achilles injuries for speedy PG’s who aren’t great at shooting are a big red X to me. Others may feel differently but I don’t get the fascination at trading for a guy who is under contract for 2 more seasons after this one for even more than Russ will be paid and he hasn’t even played. heck, let’s see what Brandon Roy has left in the tank while we’re knocking on fantasy doors.
Lastly, this is a mess of Rob’s own creation. He either needed to fight harder in terms of his desire to trade for a lesser talent but a theoretically better fit (although, really, if one is honest simply running it back and adding Monk and Melo for the departed Gasol and Drummond would have been lightning in a bottle moves that cost us z-e-r-o draft capital buuuuuuuut nooooOOOOoooooo…) or he needed to convince ownership that going down this route meant using all the spending tools at their disposal better than they did. Instead we over-traded and followed it up by fielding the rest of the squad on the cheap.
Bird Rights for Caruso? Wasted and tossed, not even a trade exception…which can be let expire with literally zero penalty should one choose not to use it. Using Dennis in a sign and trade instead of letting him walk for nothing? Nope, we don’t like how he spurned us so screw that guy AND we’re screwing ourselves, too! That’ll show everyone I know how to do this job. Absurd moves that are probably going to cost us a shot at even making the conference finals to say nothing of banner 18.
This could end really well. AD could be the thing that turns the ship around, drives us on defense and is a release valve on offense for Russ and his drives. THT could rediscover his game post-trade deadline. Some of the guys we brought in to shoot might even start hitting some more shots. After the deadline and the ASB teams have a way of, I dunno, re-discovering their mojo and renewing their focus. Maybe that can be us this season.
This could also go even further south. THT never amounts to anything but a “Hey, do you want this young guy?!” trading chip, AD continues to waffle between elite and really good, and the guys we brought in to shoot just keep right on missing. If we miss the playoffs, heck if we squeak in via the playin, the summer will get far more interesting than the trade deadline.
So here’s hoping it ends well. Best to hope for improvement from within at this point. The Pau trade won’t be rolling down the hill again any time soon, teams have gotten a lot smarter since then. Turner is under contract for 2 more seasons after this one so Indy has literally no impetus to trade him for spare parts and crappy picks. They can afford to wait because he’s on an affordable deal. Same as last year and the year before. Broken down players won’t save the season. Guys who haven’t played this season for whatever reason won’t save the season. A lateral move won’t save the season.
Playing harder, competing consistently…them’s the only things that can save the season.
Go Lakers.
Michael H says
Great post Jamie, I couldn’t agree more. I actually was going to write something similar. A big problem is this is a sellers market. You never know who will pop up at the deadline but currently not a lot of names out there because of the play in playoffs we’re almost all the teams still in the hunt. And the names out there will require a lot to make a trade. I mean OKC wants a 1st for Kenrich Williams😬 and you touched on another key factor. All the names out there are under contract so there is no urgency for teams to take a lesser deal. With the recent rash of injuries to shooters we may actually be able to get a draft pick for Wayne. And the buyout market maybe even worse. There are no rumors at all concerning teams buying out vets. We simply do not have the assets to compete for the small pool of available players.
Jamie Sweet says
It’s also still in the time zone for a GM to ask high, lotta time left for a deal to get done. No need to sell low, yet. We could still, in theory, win an odd game of musical chairs where we’re the last team offering something before the music stops. A bad Laker offer right at the deadline might be better for some team or other.
But, based on what we have to offer, I just don’t see any moves of impact that we’ll make. Everything we have to offer, and also the targets we are in theory pursuing, will all be better available with the passage of time. Westbrook’s deal? Has slightly more value this summer. Same goes for Turner, although honestly I can easily see a team like Indy giving Rick more time (by that I mean all the way up until the trade deadline for next season) so unless Carlisle says “ship him out”, why bother taking a small return? That timeline is what works against the Lakers who are functioning on LeBron’s timeline and teams know that. they will, smartly, try to extract a little more blood from the rock and we shouldn’t fall prey to that.
Yes, we want to win now but if it costs us everything and we don’t then all we’ve done is both screw up the present and the future. Take your lumps now, get back up with more tools to use and build a better future.
MongoSlade says
2 more weeks of this trade speculation nonsense. What a waste of time & energy. Just show me the baby.
Jamie Sweet says
lol