Lakerholics

After a brilliant offseason and undefeated preseason, the only questions facing the NBA defending champion Lakers now are how will Kyle Kuzma’s extension and Talen Horton-Tucker’s preseason affect the team’s rotations?

While neither is likely to be in the starting lineup when the Lakers kick off the season tomorrow night against their crosstown rival Clippers, Kuzma’s extension and THT’s breakout preseason could translate into more minutes. There’s no doubt the Lakers have doubled down on their belief Kyle Kuzma can be a big time contributor going forward and Talen Horton-Tucker has legitimate star potential and is ready to challenge for more playing time.

All of which further complicates the decisions facing Frank Vogel as he tries to figure out how to manage what appears to be an unusually deep and talented Lakers’ rotation with 11 players who deserve regular minutes. Fortunately, the saving grace for Vogel may be the NBA’s shortened and compressed regular season schedule and Lakers’ need to ease the load for 35-year old LeBron James and a team with little time off after winning.

One answer to Vogel’s dilemma may be to sit two or three players each game to reduce the rotation to a manageable eight or nine players and while load managing to keep the team fresh and healthy for the playoffs. This would allow the Lakers to play the lineups that best matchup against each opponent and guarantee all players always had enough minutes to develop good rhythm and strong rapport and chemistry with teammates.

Deploying shifting matchup rotations would also giee Vogel the opportunity to see which combinations of players worked best against potential playoff opponents to help narrow the Lakers’ rotations going into the postseason. Strategically, it’s a perfect fit for this season’s unique schedule featuring conference teams playing each other twice in a row to reduce travel. It also would prepare teams for possible rotation changes caused by Covid-19.

But let’s take a closer look on how Kyle Kuzma’s extension and Talen Horton-Tucker’s breakout preseason could affect the Lakers’ lineups and rotations and whose minutes and roles could be affected as a result:

It’s definitely a vote of confidence and encouraging news for Kyle Kuzma that Rob Pelinka not only did not pull the trigger on a trade involving him this offseason but also signed him to a new 3-year $40 million extension. Since rookie extensions include poison pill restrictions making it hard to match salaries if a team trades the player before the extension kicks in, Kuzma is likely going to be with the Lakers for the entire 2020–21 season.

Kuzma’s rookie extension is interesting because it’s the first one the Lakers have given a player they drafted since Andrew Bynum back in 2008 and the first extension for a player on this roster who was not a Klutch Sports client. While the extension should take a load off Kuzma’s shoulders and give him confidence, expectations will continue to exceed what he’s delivered in the past and the pressure will be on him to show he’s worthy of the contract.

The challenge for Kuzma the last two years has been finding a role on the Lakers that would pay him what he’s worth considering he wants to be a starter but right now he’s stuck behind LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Players in today’s NBA can play the positions they can defend and Kyle Kuzma has shown promising potential as an elite defender against bigger wing players like James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Devin Booker.

Going forward, it will be interesting to see if Frank Vogel gives Kyle Kuzma more opportunities to play the two as he did during the preseason. Right now, Kuzma’s main role will be to backup LeBron off the bench at the three. But I also think we’ll continue to see Kuz get minutes at the two, especially when the Lakers face wing scorers too big for Caruso and KCP to handle. Playing the two could ultimately be Kuzma’s path to becoming a starter.

Talen Horton-Tucker’s breakout preseason presents head coach Frank Vogel with the same challenge he faces with Kyle Kuzma: finding enough minutes for a player who could potentially become a star and a future Lakers’ starter. Since Talen will be a restricted free agent next summer, the Lakers need to learn how good he can be. Since they have his Early Bird Rights, they can only offer him the MLE though they can match any offer he might receive.

Like Kuzma, Horton-Tucker fills a role other players on the roster cannot fill. Should the Lakers start Schroder, Talen’s ability to get to the rim and make plays for others make him the team’s best option as backup point guard. That would leave Alex Caruso and Wes Matthews competing for the backup minutes at shooting guard role assuming KCP starts at the two, although Matthews is very capable of playing backup minutes at the three.

Horton-Tucker can also fill a valuable offensive and defensive roles as a backup at shooting guard and small forward because of his ability to get to the rim and defend bigger wing scorers with his length and physicality. Talen’s extensive skill set enables him to play three positions: point guard, shooting guard, and small forward. That versatility at both ends of the court could easily translate into more minutes for Horton-Tucker.

Finally, there’s no question Talen has star potential. His game is already leaps and bounds beyond what could be expected from the 20-year old second round draft pick and the Lakers clearly know and understand that. The Lakers coaching staff views Talen primarily as a point guard and will likely give him the backup minutes to prove that’s his position, which means Alex Caruso may need to compete for minutes at shooting guard.

No matter what Frank Vogel does, the simple truth is ther roster is too deep and there are two few minutes for the Lakers to use an 11-player rotation, which means the solution should be to utilize shifting matchup rotations. That gives everybody a chance to play, provides LeBron James and older players with load management, and deals with the vagaries of a shortened and compressed schedule and possible absences due to Covid-19.

Kuma’s extension and Horton-Tucker’s preseason have exacerbated Frank Vogel’s rotation challenges. Either he adopts some form of shifting matchup rotations or ends up limiting at least two good players to minor minutes. One of the hallmarks of last year’s championship team was how every player on the roster was willing to sacrifice for the good of the team but this year’s team is much deeper or more talented than last year’s team.

With Kuzma’s extension and THT’s preseason demanding more minutes, Frank Vogel and the Lakers need to seriously consider sitting two or three players each game so they can deploy an eight or nine man rotation.

It’s definitely premature and disrespectful of proven veteran teammates but I’m going to say it anyway: 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker is the future at point guard for the Lakers and could be the starter sometime this season.

In four preseason games, Talen averaged 20.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.3 steals in 31.6 minutes per game, ranking 2nd in points, 2nd in rebounds, 4th in assists, 1st in steals, and 1st in plus/minus for the team. And these were not hollow stats posted in garbage time minutes as Talen was a major force in the Lakers’ undefeated preseason, highlighted by a 33 point, 10 rebound, 4 assist, and 4 steal performance against the Clippers.

Yes, it’s only been four preseason games but the improvement in Talen’s game at both ends of the court has been unprecedented for a second round draft pick. His newfound confidence and skill level are off the charts. The Lakers’ coaching staff and players say what everyone’s seen Horton-Tucker do in his brief debut in the playoffs and this preseason, he has been doing everyday in practice and scrimmages since last season in the bubble.

There are five reasons why Talen is the future starter at point guard for the Lakers: his elite ability to get to the rim and finish, run the pick-and-roll, make plays for others, create steals and turnovers, and shoot the three ball.

1. Ability to Get to the Rim and Finish

The first thing that jumps out at you about Talen Horton-Tucker is the ability of his powerful 234 pound body to absorb contact at the rim and use his freakish length and acrobatic athleticism to finish highlight reel layups. Blessed with a 7′ 1″ wingspan, hands almost as big as Kawhi Leonard, and the biggest body of any NBA player his height, the 6′ 4″ Horton-Taylor is a tireless juggernaut that relentlessly and fearlessly attacks the basket.

With elite physical skills and shifty moves, Talen has the potential to be one of the hardest players in the league to stop from getting to the basket. He’s an unstoppable attack dog with unique ability to get to the rim at will.

2. Ability to Run the Pick-and-Roll

One of the key skills that make Talen incredibly difficult to defend is his savvy ability on pick-and-rolls to use his handle, strength, and change of pace to put and keep his defender in jail as he navigates through the paint. While he’s not fast or quick, Horton-Tucker’s strong body, long arms, and big hands make him a nightmare matchup for most point guards and impossible to control in the lane where he’s a lethal threat to score or pass.

Talen’s gravity as a finisher and uncanny court vision let him to use pick-and-rolls to create opportunities for others in the paint or on the perimeter and his huge hands and long arms enable him to find them in traffic.

3. Ability to Make Plays for Others

Make no mistake, Talen Horton-Tucker is not going to be a pass-first point guard. His future is clearly as a shoot-first point guard whose threat as a big time scorer is going to demand other teams’ attention and best defenders. Unlike most young high powered scorers, Talen has great court vision and willingness to make the right play when a teammate is open, whether the result of him being in attack mode or a simple hockey pass to the corner.

Talen’s elite passing repertoire includes all the weapons a great playmaker needs, including pinpoint pocket passes in the pick-and-roll, drive-and-kick passes to wide open 3-point shooters, or lobs to bigs for dunks at the rim.

4. Ability to Create Steals and Turnovers

Defense has been how 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker has earned minutes on the Lakers’ 10-deep championship roster. His weapons are a 6′ 4″ 234 lb body, 7′ 1″ wingspan, and ‘Klaw’ sized hands to create steals and turnovers. His elite arm length and hand size enable him to hound ball handlers and deflect passes, tip balls from dribblers, and rip the ball out of players’ hands like he did while defending Kawhi in preseason game against the Clippers.

Talen’s outlier physical metrics and defensive potential were what first brought him to the attention of NBA scouts. His team best 2.3 steals per game in preseason show how far he’s grown under the Lakers’ tutelage.

5. Ability to Shoot the Three Ball

The biggest surprise since his rookie year is Horton-Tucker’s improvement as 3-point shooter, hitting 2 of 5 (40%) in his 17 minutes in two playoff games and 7 of 13 in his 127 (53.8%) minutes in four preseason games. Talen’s improved 3-point shooting showed how hard he worked on his shot as he only made 49 out of 159 threes (30.8%) in his one year at Iowa State and 72 of 233 threes (30.9%) in his 38 game stint in the G-League last year.

If he can shoot the three well, there’s no limit to how far Talen can go. That he shot 90% from the line in preseason compared to 74% in the G-League and 62% at Iowa State gives hope his improved shooting may be legitimate.

Going from preseason sensation to regular season rotation player to starting point guard is a daunting challenge on any team much less on a deep and talented championship team but Talen has a chance to do it. The next step is taking over as the Lakers’ backup point guard and proving his preseason performance was not a fluke and the team can count on him to run the offense efficiently, rack up points, and defend at a high level

That Talen’s already knocking on the door is a luxury and miracle for a Lakers team already favored to repeat as champions. There are encouraging signs they may have already found their point guard of the future in THT.

Last season, the Lakers proved the axiom that defense wins championships. This season Rob Pelinka has given the Lakers an arsenal of weapons so their high powered offense could be as good as their championship defense.

While the Lakers clearly gave up some rim protection by not bringing back McGee and Howard, they still have their best shot blocker and rim protector in Anthony Davis, who will be playing the five when they close out games. Meanwhile, the objective in basketball is still to put the ball in the basket more times than your opponent and the four players the Lakers added this offseason were dramatic offensive upgrades over the four they replaced.

1. Marc Gasol for JaVale McGee

While the individual stats don’t show it, the biggest move to transform the Lakers offense this offseason was replacing traditional center JaVale McGee with modern 3-point shooting and elite playmaking center Marc Gasol. Gasol’s ability to shoot and pass the ball from the top of the key will open the floor for Laker superstars James and Davis to attack the rim and create opportunities for cutters like Caldwell-Pope and Kuzma to get easy baskets.

While Gasol only averaged 7.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists in 26.4 minutes per game vs. McGee’s 6.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 0.5 assists in 16.6 minutes per game, Marc shot 38.5% on 3.4 attempted threes per game. While Marc Gasol won’t personally add many points, his ability to stretch defenses and pass to cutters will transform the Lakers offensively and give teammates better spacing and opportunities to score than last season.

2. Dennis Schroder for Rajon Rondo

The second biggest offseason move Pelinka made was trading for Dennis Schroder to replace Rajon Rondo and give the Lakers a legitimate starting point guard in his prime to take the playmaking load off of LeBron James. While Schroder is not the elite playmaker Rondo was, he’s a much better scorer, 3-point shooter, and on ball defender. He also adds an element of speed at both ends of the court the Lakers did not have last season.

Finishing second in the 6MOY competition, Schroder averaged 18.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in 30.8 minutes per game last season vs. Rondo’s 7.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists in 20.5 minutes per game. While the Lakers may miss Playoff Rondo’s clutch savvy, Schroder is 7 years younger, will give the Lakers the third scorer they’ve been missing, make life easier for LeBron in the starting lineup, and run the team when he rests.

3. Wesley Matthews for Danny Green

Like Gasol for McGee, Matthews for Green was more about saving money and cap space and replacing a player whose productivity declined for a player who brought more offensive potential and versatility to the Lakers. By replacing Danny Green with Wesley Matthews, Rob Pelinka was able to exchange an expensive veteran shooting guard for one on a minimum contract and to steal a starting player from the rival Milwaukee Bucks.

Matthews averaged 7.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists in 24.4 minutes per game last season for the Bucks while Green posted 8.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in 24.8 minutes per game for the Lakers. While Matthews’ 36.4% on 4.4 threes per game is almost identical to Green’s 36.7% on 4.8 threes per game, Wes was the better and quicker defender against big wing scorers like Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.

4. Montrezl Harrell for Dwight Howard

Replacing veteran backup center Dwight Howard with the 26-year old explosive, high scoring reigning 6MOY Montrezl Harrell could turn out to be Rob Pelinka’s crowning achievement of the offseason for the Lakers. While the Lakers will miss Howard’s elite rim protection, the opportunity to steal Trezz from the rival Clippers was just too tempting to pass and gives the team’s bench a needed boost in energy and scoring when LeBron rests.

Harrell averaged 18.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.7 assists in 27.8 minutes per game with the Clippers last season while Howard averaged 7.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 0.7 assists in 18.9 minutes per game with the Lakers. While Trezz is not the defender Dwight was, he will be playing alongside an elite defender and shot blocker in Anthony Davis and should continue being a high powered bench scorer who regularly dominates reserve centers.

Comparing the offensive productivity of the four players Rob added to that of the players they replaced is revealing. Gasol, Schroder, Matthews, and Harrell averaged a combined 52.4 points, 19.5 rebounds, and 10.4 assists per game. Meanwhile, McGee, Rondo, Green, and Howard averaged 29.2 points, 19.3 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game. The four new players Rob Pelinka added to the Lakers posted 79% more points and 39% more assists.

That added offense from these four players translates into 23.2 more points and 2.9 more assists per game for a Lakers team that ranked 11th in the league with 113.4 points per game and 10th with 25.4 assists per game. Adding those numbers to last year’s averages would give the Lakers 136.6 points and 28.3 assist per game, both of which would rank first in the league and show how Rob Pelinka has weaponized the team’s offensive arsenal.

Lost in the discussions of how to find minutes on a championship Lakers team ten deep with proven talented players has been the more important question of what is the position Talen Horton-Tucker is best suited to play?

I think we saw the answer to that question the last three preseason games where Horton-Tucker averaged 23.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 2.7 steals in 34.4 minutes at point guard while shooting 53.3/45.5/89.5%. While it’s foolish to overreact to a few preseason games, what we saw in those games was exactly what the Lakers coaches and players have seen from this kid in the bubble, during the playoffs, and in practice every day.

The first time I heard the Lakers were considering Talen Horton-Tucker as the backup point guard was back in November 2019 in a YouTube stream by Eric Pincus Making Sense of the Los Angeles Lakers’ Hard Cap Moves. While discussing the Lakers depth chart for the season, Pincus said the coaches were high on THT, believed he would become part of the rotation, and could even challenge Alex Caruso for the backup point guard role

The reason Talen is even on the Lakers roster is LeBron James. “I saw him about three and half, four years ago,” James said of Horton-Tucker. “I was watching a high school basketball game and I happened to catch Simeon playing. And I told our agent at the time — it’s now Talen’s agent, Rich Paul — that he needs to take a look at this kid Talen Horton-Tucker that’s at Simeon. I think the kid is super talented. This was like four years ago.

What transpired after that may be a key moment in Lakers history as on June 20, 2019, the Lakers traded their 2020 second round pick and $2.2 million to the Orlando Magic to take Talen with the 46th pick in the draft. After spending most of his rookie year in the G-League and only playing in 2 regular season games with the Lakers, Talen got a chance to play in two second round playoff games in the bubble against the Rockets and excelled.

Thrown into the pressure cooker of the bubble playoffs, Horton-Tucker averaged 7.0 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.0 steals in 8.5 minutes per game, giving the Lakers a glimpse of what he was capable of doing at 19-years old. The most telling comment about what the Lakers think about Talen Horton-Tucker’s potential was what one of their coaches said to LA Times writer Dan Woike while watching him practice during the playoffs in the bubble.

Here’s the quote from Woike: Inside a convention center ballroom during the playoffs, a Lakers coach milled around the edge of a makeshift practice court. Nineteen-year-old Talen Horton-Tucker made a play, another flash of the potential that had been popping in limited minutes earlier in the bubble. And a smile crept across the staffer’s face. “That [dude] might start for us next year,” that coach, who happened to be Frank Vogel, said.

I was even more impressed watching Talen dominate the second half and lead the Lakers to a 3rd straight preseason win last night rebounding from a shaky first half off the bench instead of starting like in the first two games. After missing his only two 3-point attempts in the first half, Talen did what great players do. He put his head down and used his size and length to attack the paint, making several highlight reel layups and dishes in traffic.

While it may be awhile before he forces himself into the starting lineup, there’s no question Talen Horton-Tucker has earned a role in the Lakers’ rotation as the team’s backup point guard when LeBron’s not on the floor. While he’s capable of contributing off the ball, Talen’s handle and ability to get into the paint and make plays for himself and teammates and his upside as an elite wing defender are exactly what the Lakers need to repeat.

It almost unfair that a championship team as deep and talented as the Lakers should find a transcendent young star like Talen Horton-Tucker but like LeBron James said, “This kid is flat out SPECIAL! Mark my words.”

Maybe it’s just coincidence but could Frank Vogel’s decision to play only 9 players Friday night and 8 players Sunday night be a preview of a brilliant Lakers’ plan to manage a deep roster, load management, and Covid-19?

Friday night, Vogel played a 9-man rotation of Schroder, Matthews, Caruso, Kuzma, Harrell, THT, Cook, Cacok, and Antetokounmpo while holding out James, Davis, KCP, Morris, Gasol, Dudley, and McKinnie due to Covid-19. Sunday night, he played an 8-man rotation of Gasol, Morris, Kuzma, KCP, THT, Harrell, Cook, and Dudley while holding out James, Davis, Schroder, Matthews, Cacok, Antetokounmpo, McKinnie, and Caruso due to injury.

By limiting his rotations to just 8 or 9 players, Vogel was able to give every player an opportunity to get in rhythm and play well with the result that the Lakers won both games without playing LeBron James or Anthony Davis. With two preseason games to go, the Lakers looked like a team ready to start the season while the Clippers looked like a team going nowhere as Ty Lue played 18 players in Friday night’s loss and 17 in Sunday night’s loss.

With Talen Horton-Tucker looking like a potential star, Frank Vogel needs to find a way keep a deep and talented 11-man rotation happy and productive and give each player enough minutes and opportunities to be successful. Keeping rotations to 8 or 9 players ensures everybody gets to play at least 20 to 30 minutes per game so they can develop rhythm and rapport with their teammates. Teams usually play better with 8 or 9-man rotations.

With the early start and compressed season, the Lakers need to give LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and others who played deep into the playoffs days off and be ready to respond to players missing games due to Covid or injury. Deploying a shifting 8 or 9-man matchup rotation based on opponent could be an ingenious way for the Lakers to manage the playing time demands of a deep roster, the need to rest LeBron and AD, and the impact of Covid-19.

The way this would work is relatively simple. Assuming the Lakers decide they have 11 players to whom they want to regularly give 20 to 30 minutes of playing time, they would then rest 2 or 3 of those 11 players every game. Positional matchups and players out due to injury or Covid would obviously be factors on who would sit out. LeBron and AD would likely play against major competitors while one of them might rest against lottery teams.

So how would an 8 to 9-man shifting matchup rotation of 11 players work over the 72-game NBA regular season? How many of the 72 games would various players end up playing versus sitting out during the regular season? The math is simple. For 11 players to share an 8 or 9-man rotation, each player would have to sit out every 5th game, meaning they would play in 80% or 58 and miss 20% or 14 of the 72 regular season games scheduled.

But every 5th game is just an average. Depending on the player, their age, health, level of play, opponent, matchups, and schedule, Vogel may want specific players to sit out only every 6th game and others every 4th game. The beauty of the template is it allows the coach to fine tune the rotation to each opponent, gives every player regular chances to rest and recuperate, and ensures the players who play have enough minutes to get into rhythm.

The shifting matchup rotations give more than five players the opportunity to start and close games, allow the coach to see which player combinations work best, and help to develop teamwide chemistry, synergy, and culture. They also afford more players chances to play meaningful minutes, keep the team fresh, healthy, and engaged over the long season, and make it easier to adjust should players get injured or end up testing positive for Covid.