Lakerholics

Benching D’Angelo Russell late in the 4th quarter vs. Denver was coaching malpractice that not only cost the Lakers the game but likely any chance to win a title this season by alienating and undermining their 3rd best player.

With the Lakers trailing the Nuggets 99–98 with 7:48 left in the 4th quarter, Darvin Ham benched D’Angelo Russell, who had been playing well and was on the way to redeeming his poor play against Denver in last year’s playoffs.
At that point, D’Angelo Russell had posted 17 points on 6 of 13 shooting, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists with zero turnovers in less than 30 minutes while recording a team-best +2 plus/minus and team-best 119 defensive rating.

The move to rely on Cam Reddish’s defense rather than D’Angelo Russell’s offense was a disaster. By the time Ham replaced Reddish with Russell with 1:34 left in the game, the Lakers’ deficit had ballooned from 1 to 7 points.
Russell had been one of the major reasons the Lakers were within 1 point of the Nuggets with 7:48 left in the 4th quarter. Replacing him with the offensively-challenged Cam Reddish was a wrong move at the wrong time.

Ham wasted two-thirds of the season trying to build a championship caliber defensive team before reinstalling the offense-first starting lineup that carried the Lakers to the Western Conference Finals last season.
The last thing the Lakers need right now is for Ham to undermine what has been working for the Lakers by alienating the one player in DLO who’s been mainly responsible for the team turning into an offensive juggernaut.

Losing the game was unfortunate but what’s more worrisome is how Russell is going to react to again being benched against the Nuggets down the stretch of the game just like during last season’s conference finals.

HOW DOES D’ANGELO RUSSELL RESPOND?

Instead of building up Russell’s confidence by counting on him to close out the game, Ham did the opposite by replacing him again with Reddish, the same player he earlier in the year gifted with an unearned starting spot.

Make no mistake, reinstating D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves as the starting backcourt was the move that woke this team up to make a push to make the playoffs this season despite standing pat at the trade deadline.
That Darvin Ham would, in the midst of the Lakers’ biggest game of the season, suddenly pull the plug again on D’Angelo Russell in favor of Cam Reddish, is the final straw. Darvin Ham should be fired as Lakers’ coach.

Darvin Ham’s stubborn refusal to play the lineups responsible for the Lakers making it to the conference finals last season has been perplexing. Ham’s seeming embrace of new over old players has been a major issue.
Ham’s over reliance on new signees like Taurean Prince and Cam Reddish over proven returnees from last season like D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves has been a constant defense-over-offense theme all season long.

I have no problem with coaches who emphasize defense over offense as I think a strong defense is how you build a championship team. It’s the anchor you can count on to be more consistent than just shot making.
Unfortunately, great offense in today’s NBA often beats great defense and championship teams usually have great balance between offense and defense. Defense or offense alone is never enough to win a championship.

How D’Angelo Russell reacts to being benched for Cam Reddish could determine how this season goes for the Lakers. Ham’s decision was a slap in the face of DLO. No way he wants to play for Darvin going forward.

D’ANGELO RUSSELL GONE IN FREE AGENCY

With the Lakers committed to using the 3 first round picks and 3 pick swaps available this offseason to trade for a third superstar to join LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers are going to need DLO’s help.

The last thing the Lakers want next summer is D’Angelo Russell to decline his player option, spurn the Lakers, and sign as a free agent with another team this summer, leaving Los Angeles with nothing to show in return.
Considering the Lakers will need $40.0 million in matching salaries to trade for a third superstar this summer, they desperately need to include an $18.7 million sign-and-trade deal for DLO as part of their blockbuster trade offer.

Darvin Ham’s benching of D’Angelo Russell in the 4th quarter vs. the Nuggets will ultimately end up with DLO refusing to re-sign or cooperate with the Lakers because of Ham or of the Lakers replacing Ham as coach.
Throw in the rumors of LeBron’s dissatisfaction with Darvin as well as the number of times the front office has had to intervene to force the stubborn Ham to adjust his lineups to boost the offense efficiency and win games.

Coaching is as much art as it is science but Ham appears to rely more on his gut than what the analytics are telling him. Prince, for example, has long been the least productive Lakers role player given the most minutes.
Coaches need to establish guidelines and systems to simplify making up starting lineups and rotations and ensure the team always has enough scoring and defense to compete rather than always going by their gut.

Benching Russell for Reddish for more than 6 critical stretch minutes was just further evidence that Darvin Ham’s future as head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers is likely to come to an unfortunate ugly end this summer.

The 33–28 Los Angeles Lakers face a bruising 7-game gauntlet over the next two weeks that will determine whether they’re legitimate championship contenders or simply pretenders who have no realistic chance of winning.

The Lakers’ are likely to be underdogs in every one of the 7-games that start tomorrow night versus the world champion Nuggets and include games against the Thunder, Kings, Bucks, Timberwolves, Kings, and Warriors.
Not only will all 7 games be against elite playoff quality opponents but 6 of them will be against Western Conference teams currently are above the Lakers in the standings. These are games the contending Lakers must win.

Make no mistake. The Lakers will not be able to survive the next two weeks if they play like they did in last night’s lucky overtime win versus the sad and hapless Wizards. They’re currently facing what are 7 ‘must win’ games.
If the Lakers come out with the same clueless and relaxed approach they had last night, we won’t have to wait two weeks to learn the Lakers are mere pretenders who lack the drive and determination to win a championship.

The good news is 6 of the next 7 tough games will be home games at Crypto.Com Arena, including Saturday’s big rematch with the world champion Denver Nuggets. The Lakers are 21–9 at home this season.
With their only road game during the upcoming 7-game gauntlet being vs. the Sacramento Kings, the Los Angeles Lakers will essentially be able to stay in California for the full two weeks needed to play the next 7 games

Let’s take a closer look at where the Lakers are in the Western Conference standings, the schedule for their next 7 games, and what it would take for them to move to a top-6 guaranteed playoff seed or a #7 or #8 play-in seed.

The Standings

The Los Angeles Lakers are 33–28 and in 9th place in the West. Since they have one more loss than the 10th place Warriors, the Lakers are in serious danger of falling back into 10th place if they lose to Denver on Saturday.

The Lakers problem is that the Timberwolves, Thunder, Nuggets, and Clippers have already locked up the top-4 seeds in the West, leaving just the Suns and Pelicans as the only teams who haven’t locked up a playoff seed.
Since Phoenix and New Orleans both have winning percentages just under .600, any team hoping to take end up as the 5th or 6th seed will likely have to end up winning over 49 games or 60% of their 82-game schedule.

Unfortunately, the Lakers would have to win 17 of their remaining 21 games in order to finish the season with 49 wins and a .600 winning percentage or the Suns or Pelicans would have to fail down the stretch.
That probably eliminates any realistic opportunity by the Lakers to win one of the six guaranteed playoff seeds in the West and likely commits them to having to follow last year’s 1-game play-in path to making the NBA playoffs.

The actual battle the Lakers face will probably be trying to beat out the Warriors and Kings for #7 or #8 place in the West and a chance to play just one play-in game to win the #7 playoff seed in a repeat of last season.
Worst case scenario for the Lakers is fortunately the #9 and #10 play-in spots because the#11 through #15 spots in the West are already too far back to get into the competition for #9 and #10 play-in tournament slots.

Bottom line, the standings make it clear that the Los Angeles Lakers have only a remote chance of winning one of the top-6 seeds in the West but have an excellent chance of winning the #7 seed in the play-in tourney.

The Schedule

The Lakers currently have the 4th toughest schedule remaining in the NBA with many of the team’s toughest games being the among 7-game gauntlet the team embarks upon beginning tomorrow night against the Nuggets.

The only way the Lakers have a shot at winning one of the top-6 seeds in the West is to finish off this 7-game stretch with 5 or 6 dominating victories where LeBron James and Anthony Davis show they’re ready to win it all.
Whether the inconsistent and injury plagued Lakers can suddenly flip the switch and become a dominant team that nobody wants to have to meet in the playoffs is still to be seen. Question is which Lakers team will show up.

Frankly, facing a 7-game gauntlet like the Lakers have to go through over the next two weeks could be the silver lining they need to save their season. This team doesn’t play their best until their backs are up against the wall.
Over the next 7 games, the Lakers will have to bring their A-game just to be able to compete much less win consistently against the toughest possible competition. Lakers will be underdogs in every one of these 7 games.

The good news is we’ve seen what this Lakers team is capable of, we’ve seen what a healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis can accomplish. The only question is whether this team can pull it together and start winning. There’s no more time for Ham experimenting or for anybody on the Lakers not coming out from the opening tip and giving everything they have to win every single game. The next 7 games will tell us if this team is for real.

The bottom line is the 2024 NBA Championship is as wide-open as it has been in any year in history. In the end, the Lakers still believe LeBron and AD give them a puncher’s chance at winning their 18th NBA championship.

The Clippers and the entire NBA got a rude reminder of just how lethal LeBron James in full playoff mode can still be even at 39-years old as he led the Lakers to a stunning 21-point fourth quarter 116–112 comeback win.

When an exhausting injury-plagued season, failure to make a difference-making trade at the deadline, and tough remaining schedule all seemed to doom the Lakers to end up as a play-in team, LeBron James to the rescue.
Instead of losing three of their first four games after the All-Star break and falling to 31–29 and 10th in the West, the Lakers are now miraculously 32–28 and 9th in the West, just 3.0 games out of 5th place with 22 games to go.

With a back-to-back tonight against the lowly Wizards, the Lakers should be able to pick up a needed easy win while maybe resting LeBron James, which would push them to 5-games over .500 for the first time this season.
That would hopefully give the Lakers some desperately needed momentum as they look to finally win a game against the defending champion Denver Nuggets in a nationally televised Saturday night game at Crypto.com Arena.

The game against Denver marks the start of seven straight home games against elite opponents who will be favored over the Lakers. After Nuggets, Lakers play Thunder, Kings, Bucks, Timberwolves, Kings, and Warriors.
How the Lakers handle that 7-game stretch will likely determine whether they can realistically win a top-6 spot in the West and avoid the play-in. After that 7-game stretch, the Laker will only have 14 games remaining.

Assuming the Lakers beat the Wizards to be 33–28 heading into the 7-game stretch, how many games do Lakers need to win to have a chance to avoid the play-in? They would be 37–31 with 4 out of 7 and 38–30 withy 5 out of 7.
Even at 38–30, the Lakers would likely still be in 9th place in the West with just 14 games remaining. Fortunately, their remaining 14-game schedule is much easier than the touch 7-game West stretch they’re facing right now.

Bottom line, the Lakers still have an uphill climb to get out of the play-in and into a top-6 guaranteed playoff spot. Like last year, the Lakers are likely to end up 7th or 8th in the West, needing 1 play-in win to make playoffs.

If the red-hot Lakers hope to repeat the 18–8 post All-Star run that carried them to last season’s conference finals, they’re going to have to do it amidst a brutal 12-game schedule where they will be the underdogs in 10 games.

The Lakers will not only be underdogs in 10 of their next 12 games but 9 of those 10 games will be against those same Western Conference teams who are tied or ahead of them in the standings based on total losses for season.
Those 2 games vs. the Warriors, 2 games vs. the Kings, and 5 games vs. the Suns, Clippers, Nuggets, Thunder, and Timberwolves will be the measuring stick that tells us whether the Lakers’ championship hopes are realistic.

Here’s the schedule for the next 12 games that’s likely to determine whether the Lakers are legitimate championship contenders or simply pretenders. The Spurs and Wizards are the only games where Lakers would be favored.

The problem the Lakers face is not the 3.5 games that separates them from 5th or 6th place in the West and an automatic playoff seed, it’s the 5 teams they have to climb over to get to 5th or 6th place with only 26 games left.

The Lakers’ next 12 games will decide their season. They must finish the next 12 games with an 8–4 record, which means winning 6 out of the 10 games in which they will be underdogs, an almost impossible challenge.
Frankly, the Lakers need to win more than they lose of the next 12 games to still have any realistic chance to make the top-6 in the West and get an automatic playoff seed. Finishing under .500 will doom them to the play-in.

The Lakers will need to come out of the All-Star break playing their best basketball of the season with their new starting lineup and rotation continuing to be the offensive juggernaut that’s found out how to win.

Tonight’s road game against the Warriors is a perfect example of the tough challenge the Lakers will face over the next 12 games. After 7 days off, L.A. is still struggling with injuries as LeBron James and Chris Wood will be out.

The Los Angeles Lakers start their challenging 12-game stretch with back-to-back road games against the Warriors and Spurs, missing James, Wood, Vincent, and Vanderbilt and with Christie and Reddish still questionable.
The Lakers and Warriors are tied for 9th in the West as each have 26 losses but Golden State has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA having won 8 of their last 10 games. Lakers won only match this season 145–144 in OT.

The Lakers desperately need to win tonight’s game against the Warriors, who will clearly be favored with the game in San Francisco and LeBron James out. Win tonight, and Lakers go up 2–0 vs. Warriors for the season.
Split the remaining 2 games with Golden State and Los Angeles would win the season series 3–1 and get home court advantage over the Warriors should the two teams end up meeting in the Western Conference playoffs.

At this point in the season, the Lakers currently own tie breakers against the Warriors, Thunder, Suns, Clippers, and Pelicans while the Nuggets, Timberwolves, Mavs, and Kings now own tie breakers over the Lakers.
How the Los Angeles Lakers fare over the next 12 games, including 9 games against their direct Western Conference competitors, will surely determine whether they’re legitimate contenders or simply pretenders to the throne.

The good news for the Lakers is they have the 4th easiest remaining schedule in the NBA for their last 26 games, which means after the next 12 extremely tough games, L.A.’s schedule down the stretch will be easier.
If LeBron and AD can remain healthy and D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Rui Hachimura elevate their games to another level, the Lakers could be the lethally dangerous team nobody wants to meet in the playoffs.

The Lakers must play the best basketball of their season over the next 12 games if they want to have any chance to meet the Boston Celtics in the 2024 Finals in an epic battle to see which team wins their 18th NBA title.

The challenge for Darvin Ham will be how to integrate 4 defense-first role players returning from injury into the offense-first 9-man starting lineup and rotation that has transformed the Lakers into an offensive juggernaut.

There’s no question the Lakers’ new starting lineup of Russell, Reaves, Hachimura, James, and Davis and 4-man bench of Dinwiddie, Prince, Wood, and Hayes have been magnificent, winning 6 of their last 7 games.
The Lakers’ new 9-man rotation has increased their offensive rating to top-5 in the league with only a minor decrease in defensive rating in the 16 games since Ham decided to start Russell and Reaves as team’s backcourt.

But the likely need for better point-of-attack perimeter defense than what a Russell and Reaves backcourt could provide and the possible return from injury of Reddish, Christie, Vincent, and Vanderbilt could portend change. Everyone knows defense wins championships but the offensive talent in the NBA is now so dominant that ‘great offense beating great defense’ has become the norm, which is exactly what we’re seeing from the Lakers.

After struggling to build a defense-first starting lineup and rotation that could win games, Ham was forced by injuries to return to the same starting lineup the Lakers used to make it to the conference finals last season.
That current starting lineup of Russell, Reaves, Hachimura, James, and Davis and 9-player rotation with Dinwiddie, Prince, Wood, and Hayes as primary backups has been playing great during the last 16 games stretch.

Darvin Ham’s biggest mistake was forgetting how important great offense is to winning in the NBA. In retrospect, you build championship starting lineups by understanding that great offense usually beats great defense.
Ham should have prioritized continuity and stuck with the starting lineup that carried the Lakers to the conference finals instead of deciding to break up the Russell and Reaves starting backcourt because they couldn’t defend..

Let’s look at the options Ham could have to tweak the starting lineup and rotation with the signing of Spencer Dinwiddie and possible return from injury of Cam Reddish, Max Christie, Gabe Vincent, and Jarred Vanderbilt.

Starting Lineup Options

While there are concerns whether D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves can be a championship backcourt, reports indicate the Lakers would prefer to retain the current starting lineup for continuity for the foreseeable future.

There’s no question experience playing with each other was a major factor in how quickly and easily it was for the core group from last year’s starting lineup to immediately click and gain rapport when playing together again. Considering DLO’s evolution as third star, Reaves’ resurgence after a tough start, Davis’ emergence as a legitimate point center, and Rui’s embrace of full playoff-mode attack, this could be LeBron’s best supporting cast ever.

The only reason the Lakers should consider changing the current starting lineup of D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis would be for better point-of-attack perimeter defense.
There certainly will be matchups where the Lakers could benefit from having a better point-of-attack perimeter defender like Dinwiddie, Vincent, Reddish, Christie, or Vanderbilt if he can return before the end of season.

The single obvious move the Lakers could consider would be to revert to the starting lineup they used to get to the conference finals last season, which would mean Jarred Vanderbilt replacing Rui Hachimura at the three.
That’s a change the Lakers would be smart to consider heading into the playoffs should Vanderbilt’s injury turn out not to be season-ending. Vando is the one defender who is a big enough difference maker to be a starter.

The other possible starting lineup the Lakers should consider is Spencer Dinwiddie replacing Rui Hachimura, which would essentially have the Lakers playing a three-guard lineup with Russell, Reaves, and Dinwiddie. Everybody knows Darvin Ham loves 3-guard lineups so expect to see a lot of Russell, Reaves, and Dinwiddie lineups, especially when teams go small. Dinwiddie just has a bigger bag of skills to impact teammates than Rui.

In the end, the Lakers are likely to continue Russell, Reaves, Hachimura, James, and Davis as starters for the remaining 26 games on the regular season schedule and trust they have the bench to backup their starters.

Primary Backup Options

The Lakers current 9-man rotation includes a bench of new point guard Spencer Dinwiddie, former starter Taurean Prince, stretch four Christian Wood, and athletic rim protector and offensive rebounder Jaxson Hayes.

The challenge facing Lakers’ coach Darvin Ham is what does he do when Cam Reddish, Max Christie, and Gabe Vincent are finally healthy and ready to go or if Jarred Vanderbilt’s injury is not season-ending and he’s available?
Ham would be smart to not try and force Reddish, Christie, or Vincent into the current rotation unless there’s an injury. Frankly, Vanderbilt is the only one of the four returning defenders that clearly deserves rotation minutes.

The 30–26 Lakers have won 3 in a row and 6 of last 7 games. They’re 9th in the West and with 26 games left, 2.0 games behind the Kings for 8th, 2.5 behind the Mavs for 7th, and 3.5 games behind Pelicans and Suns for 5th. Last season, the Lakers were 25–31 after 56 games and 13th in the West, forcing them to go 18–8 over last 26 games to finish 43–39 and 7th in West. If the Lakers can go 18–8 this year, they’d finish 48–34 and be 5th in West.

The Lakers need to commit to the current offensive-oriented starting lineup and 9-man rotation. Right now, the best backups for Russell and Reaves are Dinwiddie and Christie, who are both better defensively.
While the Lakers could certainly use the defense Christie and Reddish could provide now and Vincent and Vanderbilt might be able to provide later, Ham needs to be careful not to stifle their offensive juggernaut.

Ham’s best strategy is to limit changes to the Lakers’ current 9-man rotation to adding one additional perimeter defender to create a 10-man rotation, which could be scaled down further once the team makes the playoffs.
The key to the Lakers being able to replicate last season’s stretch run is health. Right now, the team is close to being as healthy as they have been all season. Their path to the playoffs should be much easier this season.

The Lakers should commit to a new 10-player rotation with Russell, Reaves, Hachimura, James, and Davis as the starting lineup and Dinwiddie, Prince, Vanderbilt (Christie if no Vando), Wood, and Hayes coming off the bench.