Lakerholics

The 2021 NBA All-Star Game break could not have come at a better time for the beleaguered Los Angeles Lakers, who have now lost four straight games and five of six games since losing Anthony Davis to injury on February 14th.

Fortunately for the Lakers, they’re going to get a nine-day vacation after their March 3rd game against the Kings for the 2021 NBA All-Star Game break before having to return to the court against the Pacers on March 12th. That nine days off will give Lakers a chance to recharge their batteries, get needed practice time, and hopefully give Anthony Davis’ calf and Achilles a chance to recover fully and be ready to go the second half of the season.

Meanwhile, the 22–11 Lakers still have four games left against the Blazers, Warriors, Suns, and Kings before the All-Star break. Los Angeles now hopes to get point guard Dennis Schroder back for Friday’s game against Portland. The Blazers have lost 3 in a row and the Kings 8 in a row while the Warriors have won 2 in a row and the Suns 8 of the last 10. Hopefully, the Lakers can at least win 3 of those 4 games to go into the break with a 25–12 record.

The return of point guard Dennis Schroder should help reinvigorate a Lakers’ offense that’s struggled without having a second shot creator and playmaker besides LeBron who’s able to get a shot for himself or teammates. But none of this will matter these final four games unless the Lakers can start hitting their threes. The Lakers rank 5th in the league in wide open 3-point shots taken during the current 4-game losing streak. Need to hit those shots.

The initial prognosis for Anthony Davis had him out for at least four weeks. Although the Lakers are likely to be conservative in bringing him back, his injury happened on February 14 and four weeks would be over March 14. That means there’s a chance Davis could return at home against the Pacers on March 12, on the road against Warriors on March 15, or back at home against Timberwolves on March 16, Hornets on March 18, or Hawks on March 20.

The good news for the Lakers is all five of those games are winnable even if AD is not back or playing at 100%, which just adds to the breathing room of the schedule with which the basketball gods seem to have gifted the Lakers. The absence of Davis and Schroder and the recent losing streak have shown, the Lakers’ deep roster still has major holes, mainly a lack of volume 3-point shooters and players who can create shots for themselves and teammates.

With the ascent of the Utah Jazz, resurgence of the Los Angeles Clippers, and emergence of the Brooklyn Nets, the Los Angeles Lakers need to make some moves to improve their 3-point shooting and shot creation and playmaking. How successful VP of Basketball Operations Rob Pelinka is at finding players to fill those holes in the Lakers’ roster could easily determine whether the team survive what’s looking like a tough gauntlet and repeat as champions.

At least for the moment, however, it looks like the basketball gods have come to the Lakers aid with a perfectly timed 9-day vacation for the 2021 All-Star game to gift the purple and gold with breathing room to get their mojo back.

Without Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder, the Lakers are going to have change things up and go super small on offense and defense and play Rudy Gobert off the floor to have a chance to upset the Utah Jazz tonight.

It may be a long shot but going small is the best chance the Lakers have to neutralize Gobert and the Jazz’ second ranked defense and match up with the the cadre of lethal 3-point shooters that drive their top ranked offense. The best starting lineup for the Lakers against the Jazz tonight would be Talen Horton-Tucker and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at guards, LeBron James and Kyle Kuzma at forwards, and Markieff Morris at small ball center.

Offensively, the need to spread the floor with 5-out sets and hit a high volume of threes to keep pace with the Jazz. They need five players who can make catch-and-shoot threes and attack the paint for drive-and-kick shots. They need to run to get easy baskets and be able to attack the paint and rim when Gobert is drawn out of the paint, which is why Morris should start.

Defensively, the Lakers’ lineups need to have the speed and athleticism to chase shooters off the 3-point line but still recover to rotate and help when the ball is moved or opposing players drive into the paint or attack the rim. That means five mobile athletic players who can chase shooters off the 3-point line and rotate quickly when the ball moves to prevent wide open shots, which is why I would start Morris at center instead of Gasol.

The Jazz have the best 3-point differential in the league, winning the 3-ball battle by 18 points per game, meaning they make 17 of 42 threes while holding opponents to 11 of 31 threes, a differential of 6 threes per game. The key to beating the Jazz is spreading the floor, stretching the defense, and outscoring the Jazz from deep to force Gobert out of the paint to open up lanes for LeBron and THT to attack the rim and win points in the paint.

The Lakers will need to shoot 45 threes again tonight and hit 40% of them to pull off a win. Hitting a hit volume of threes is going to be critical as it’s the only way to draw Rudy Gobert out of the paint or play him off the court. The Lakers almost want to lure the Jazz to give the ball to Gobert in the paint rather than rely on their league best 3-point shooting offense. Any time the Lakers get the Jazz to settle for 2 rather than 3 points will be a win.

Despite Gobert, the Jazz allow 48.3 points in the paint, which is 20th in the league, while only scoring 43.8 points in the paint. If the Lakers can keep Gobert out of the paint or play him off the floor, they can dominate inside. The thing about the Jazz is they are not unbeatable if you can get lure or force them to play outside their comfort zone. That’s not an easy thing to do and will require great shooting on offense and discipline on defense.

So while the Jazz are 9 point favorites, there’s a path to a Lakers upset victory tonight. Go super small on offense and defense, outscore the Jazz from deep, and then finish them off by attacking the paint and the rim.

There’s little doubt the Los Angeles Lakers’ Achilles heel on offense is their 3-point shooting. Despite a second best 22–9 record, the Lakers rank 26th in 3-point makes, 26th in 3-point takes, and 20th in 3-point percentage.

The only thing that’s saved the Lakers’ season from disaster is their top ranked defense, which has held their opponents to a league 4th fewest 3-point makes, 6th fewest 3-point takes, and 4th lowest 3-point percentage. Their elite 3-point defense has enabled them to win 11 of the 13 games where they made more than 10 threes, 3 of the 5 games where they made 10 threes, and 8 of the 13 games where they made less than 10 threes.

At the heart of the Lakers 3-point shooting problems is a lack of players who take and make a high volume of threes. Realistically, a team cannot create a 3-point differential unless it takes and makes more threes than it allows. The Utah Jazz, for example, take 10.8 and make 5.5 more threes than they allow. The Lakers, on the other hand, essentially just barely tread water, taking 2.1 and making 0.6 fewer threes per game than their opponents.

The reality is there isn’t room for the Lakers to fix their 3-point differential by improving their already excellent 3-point defense. Nor is simply shooting a higher percentage the answer. The only solution is to shoot more threes. Last night, they made a valiant effort to do exactly that, tying a season high 45 3-point attempts. The problem was they only made 13 of their threes for 28.9%, including a dismal 1 for 13 in the fourth quarter in a 96–94 loss.

The blueprint for winning with LeBron James has always been to surround him with high percentage, high volume 3-point shooters, Despite winning the championship last season, the Laker have failed to follow that blueprint. This season, the highest volume 3-point shooter on the Lakers is James himself, who’s 34th in the league at 6.7 threes per game. The next highest volume 3-point shooter is Kyle Kuzma, who’s 95th at 4.8 threes per game.

The Lakers’ 3-point shooting problems have unfortunately reached a panic level. Over the last 10 games, their 3-point shooting has just bottomed out, averaging only 8.7 makes out of just 29.8 takes for a league worst 29.2%. The time has come for Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office to admit their lack of high percentage, high volume 3-point shooting has become the single biggest threat to the team’s hopes of repeating as NBA champions.

The Lakers need to prioritize trading for one or two quality high volume 3-point shooters who take more than 7 threes per game so they can increase the number of threes the team takes from 30.5 to the high 30’s per game. That should be Rob Pelinka’s primary focus over the next month. Trading for quality high volume 3-point shooters will be expensive but it’s the single biggest move the Lakers can make to improve their chances of repeating.

With that in mind, here are four proposed trades the Lakers could pursue before the March 24 trade deadline to upgrade the team’s offense with proven high percentage 3-point shooters who take 7 or 8 threes per game:

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1. SCHRODER & CALDWELL-POPE FOR BALL & REDICK

This is a win-now gamble as the Lakers give up their low 3-point volume starting backcourt of Schroder and Caldwell-Pope for a controversial pair of high percentage, high volume 3-point shooters in Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick.

Ball has made 72 of 189 3-point shots this season for 38.1% while Redick has made 43 of 117 3-point shots for 36.8%. In contrast, Schroder has made 28 of 90 threes for 31.1% while KCP has made 40 of 97 threes for 41.2%. Ball and Redick in 25 games combined for 47 more made threes and 141 more points than Schroder and Caldwell-Pope. The trade would increase Lakers’ 3-point takes by 4.8, makes by 1.9, and points by 5.7 per game.

That’s exactly the kind of high volume 3-point production the Lakers need. The 22-year old 3&D Ball would immediately replace Schroder in the Lakers’ starting lineup while the 36-year old Redick would be a reserve. While Redick would provide short-term instant offense of the bench, the key to the trade is the controversial Ball, whose volume threes, defensive versatility, and elite outlet passing would be elite fits with Lebron and AD.

The trade would also be a win for the Pelicans, who’ve already committed to moving on from Ball and Ridick, as Schroder and Caldwell-Pope would be perfect complements alongside Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson.

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2. SCHRODER, KCP, & HARRELL FOR LOWRY & BAYNES

This is another win-now trade where the Lakers cash in a trio of proven young players in Schroder, Caldwell-Pope, and Harrell for 34-year old All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry and 34-year old stretch center Aron Baynes.

Lowry has made 69 of 178 3-point shots this season for 38.8% while Baynes has struggled and only made 12 of 56 threes for 21.4% with Toronto this year. But Baynes has potential and the hope is he can shoot like last season. Playing for the Suns last year, Baynes had a career season and made 59 of 168 threes for 35.1%. A change in scenery could be what Baynes needs to become the modern stretch five the Lakers need to fill their center rotation.

Lowry and Baynes volume 3-point shooting could theoretically combine for 11.1 takes, 4.2 makes, and 12.6 points per game, almost double the 6.9 takes, 2.6 makes, and 7.8 points from Schroder, Caldwell-Pope, and Harrell. Like the trade for Ball and Redick, the trade for Lowry and Baynes increase Lakers’ 3-point takes by 4.2, makes by 1.6, and points by 4.8 per game, which is exactly the kind of volume 3-point shooting the Lakers need.

Lowry would immediately replace Schroder as the Lakers’ starting point guard and give the Lakers the third star to complement LeBron and AD while Baynes would replace Harrell coming off the bench as a stretch five. Like Ball , Lowry is the key to the trade. He’s having a great season and still looks like he could play at that level for another couple of seasons. If Baynes could return to last year’s form, he would be a perfect backup center.

The trade would also be a win for the Raptors, who’ve already talked about moving Lowry and Baynes, as Schroder, Caldwell-Pope, and Harrell would rejuvenate them three talented young players to enable them to compete.

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3. HORTON-TUCKER FOR GRAHAM

The is another win-now trade where the Lakers give up 20-year old budding superstar Horton-Tucker in exchange for young high volume 25-year old point guard Graham who takes over 8 threes per game and shoots 34.7%.

A 3-year veteran, Devonte has made 70 of 202 threes this season for 34.7%. He is the 11th most prolific 3-point shooter in the league and is averaging 13.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists in 32.8 minutes per game. Graham takes 8.1 and makes 2.8 threes per game for 8.4 points. Horton-Tucker takes 1.8 and makes 0.5 threes per game. The trade would increase the Lakers’ 3-point takes by 6.3, makes by 2.3, and points by 6.9 per game.

Devonte Graham would immediately move into the starting point guard role with Dennis Schroder coming off the bench like he did in OKC or share starting point guard duties with Schroder in a double point guard scheme. Either way, Graham would give the Lakers needed volume 3-point shooting and a legitimate second point guard to reduce the playmaking load off of LeBron James and upgrade the team’s overall playmaking and shooting.

With LaMelo Ball now the Hornets’ point guard of the future Terry Rozier enjoying a career season, the Hornets can afford to move Devonte Graham to land a potential future superstar in 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker.

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4. CALDWELL-POPE & HORTON-TUCKER FOR BEASLEY

This is a win-now trade where the Lakers give up 28-year old proven vet Caldwell-Pope and 20-year old future star Horton-Tucker for 24-year old Beasley, a young high volume shooter who takes almost 9 threes per game.

Malik Beasley has made 106 of 260 3-point shots this season for 39.6%. In contrast, the veteran Caldwell-Pope has made 43 of 102 threes for 42.2% while the second year Horton-Tayler has made 13 of 48 threes for 27.1%. Beasley takes 8.7 and makes 3.4 threes per game for 10.2 points. KCP and THT take 5.6 and make 2.1 threes per game. The trade would increase the Lakers’ 3-point takes by 3.1, makes by 1.3, and points by 3.9 per game.

Beasley would immediately replace Caldwell-Pope as the Lakers’ starting shooting guard, giving the Lakers the high percentage, high volume 3-point shooter they need to stretch defenses and create spacing for LeBron and AD. While stats on winning and losing teams aren’t comparable, Beasley’s 20.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists in 32.8 minutes per game would be an upgrade over KCP’s 8.6 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists in 25.6 minutes.

The Timberwolves give up a great young player in Bealey but receive a championship proven young vet in KCP and a future superstar in the uber talented Horton-Tucker who would likely be a Lakers’ starter next season.

The 3-point shooting revolution has taken a sudden change this year that threatens the Los Angeles Lakers’ chances of repeating as champions. The key metric to winning games has suddenly become the 3-point differential.

NBA teams are not only focusing on taking and making more threes than opponents but also on playing better perimeter defense to limit opponent takes and makes and to generate an insurmountable 3-point differential. Suddenly, the 3-point differential has become the preeminent box score stat that determines who wins the game. The modern blueprint for winning in today’s NBA is to outscore your opponent from beyond the 3-point line.

The surprise team leading the league right now are the 24–5 Utah Jazz, who have won 9 straight games and 19 of their last 20. The Jazz also boast the league’s top ranked 3-point differential of 5.6 threes and 16.8 points. The reason the Jazz have the best record in the league is simple. They’re not only making a league best 16.6 made threes per game on 39.3% shooting but also only allowing a league lowest 11.0 made threes per game.

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NBA 3-POINT DIFFERENTIAL AS OF FEBRUARY 19, 2021

The Jazz even won the 3-point differential in the only game they lost of the last 20 games, hitting 20 of 47 threes for 42.6%. It took the Denver Nuggets hitting an incredible 18 for 28 threes for 64.3% to give the Jazz a rare loss. The league has been slow to give Quin Snyder and the Utah Jazz credit for being more than an early season surprise but the teams they’ve played understand their combination of 3-point offense and defense is daunting.

With Gobert protecting the rim freeing defenders to challenge threes and a cadre of dead eye shooters raining threes, the Jazz now have the 4th best offensive rating, 2nd best defensive rating, and best net rating in the league.

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After making a change in defensive philosophy to prioritize defending the three over protecting the rim, the Lakers only allow 11.5 made threes per game, which is tied for the third fewest opponent threes in the league. Unfortunately, the Lakers only make 10.8 threes per game, 28th in the league, resulting in a negative 3-point differential: they allow 0.7 more threes and 2.1 points per game than they make, 18th out of 30 teams.

Alarmingly, the other three teams with the top four 3-point differentials are also teams the Lakers may end up facing on the road to the championship: the 2nd ranked Blazers, the 3rd ranked Nets, and the 4th ranked Clippers. The Portland Trail Blazers have a scary 3-point differential of 3.1 threes and 9.3 points, the Brooklyn Nets a differential of 2.6 threes and 7.8 points, and the Los Angeles Clippers a differential of 2.5 threes and 7.5 points.

What’s unnerving about the Lakers’ negative 3-point differential is there is limited room to improve defensively, which means the only way to close the gap is offensively, which may be impossible without major roster changes. Changes in the roster may be needed because the Lakers simply do not have the high volume 3-point shooters needed to increase the number of made threes and points generated to create a positive 3-point differential.

Right now, the closest the Lakers have to a high volume 3-point shooter is LeBron who’s taking 6.6 threes per game. Next in 3-point shot attempts are Kuzma with 3.7 per game, KCP with 3.7, Wes with 3.3, and Dennis with 3.1. None of these players, LeBron included, are legitimate volume 3-point shooters. Frankly, if the Lakers want to increase made threes and points, they’re going to need to change their roster and upgrade their offense.

Otherwise, they’re going to see more and more teams dominating them from deep like the Nets did last night, hitting 10 more threes for 30 more points. But they’re going to face a 3-point differentiaL gauntlet this year. The Jazz’ Mitchell and Clarson are averaging 8.7 and 8.6 threes per game, the Blazers’ Lillard and McCollum 10.8 and 11.0, the Nets’ Harden, Irving, and Harris 7.9, 6.8, and 6.6, the Clippers George and Leonard 7.9 and 4.9.

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Last regular season, the Lakers took 31.6 threes per game and shot only 34.8%. They improved dramatically in the playoffs, taking 34.2 threes and shooting 35.4%. Defensively, they allowed 32.7 opponent threes per game. They made 12.1 threes and allowed 11.8 opponent threes in the playoffs, giving them a differential of 0.3 threes and 0.9 points. So it’s not impossible for the Lakers to win a championship with a low 3-point differential.

But the Lakers’ options are still limited. To start with, they need to make some basic changes in their offense to create more open threes and they need to encourage their players to take those shots when they’re available. Their 3-point attempts have declined over 10% the last 15 games. They took 31.9 threes per game the first 15 games but just 28.3 threes per game the last 15 games. While they’ve continued to win, the margin has gotten slim.

The Lakers best option is to look to move low 3-point volume starting guards Dennis Schroder and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for a pair of high volume 3-point shooters to help improve their 3-point differential. Candidates the Lakers could target include Buddy Hield (10.3 3PG), Malik Beasley (8.7 3PG), Devonte Graham (8.1 3PG), Lonzo Ball (7.6 3PG), JJ Redick (4.6 3PG), Lauri Markkanen (7.2 3PG), Victor Oladipo (7.3 3PG).

The Lakers’ 3-point differential depends more on the volume than the percentage of threes made. While it’s not impossible for the Lakers to repeat as champions, their negative 3-point differential will make that difficult. The last thing they want is to play the four teams who have the best 3-point differentials in the league: Blazers in the first round, Clippers in the second round, Jazz in the conference finals, and then the Nets in the Finals.

The good news is the Lakers will have an opportunity at the trade deadline for moves to improve their rim protection and 3-point shooting. Let’s hope they recognize their negativer 3-point differential is their Achilles heel.

It’s a shame Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant will miss tonight’s matchup between the teams favored to meet in the NBA Finals but there’s clearly a sense of fairness and karma by having both teams missing a superstar.

But there’s more at stake tonight than just bragging rights between the Nets and Lakers. Tonight we get a first look at a possible answer to the question of whether a third superstar or deep and talented roster is more important. Granted, we’d get a truer answer were AD and KD both playing but tonight’s game still comes down to a contest between the Nets with two superstars and a weak roster vs. the Lakers with one superstar and deep roster.

The outcome of tonight’s game could even impact the decisions of the Lakers and Nets front offices before the trade deadline. The Lakers have long been scheming ways to add a third superstar to James and Davis. Tonight’s game could motivate them to chase a third superstar or stand pat. Meanwhile, the Nets will be looking for ways to bolster their shallow, weak bench after trading away their depth to add third superstar James Harden.

In the end, it’s unlikely the results of tonight’s game will change anything for either team as it’s simply another regular season game and neither team has the necessary trading chips to make dramatic changes to their rosters. The Lakers aren’t going to jettison their invaluable roster depth and talent for a third superstar and the both teams are going to be limited to shopping the buyout markets to upgrade their rosters at this point in time.

But that doesn’t mean tonight’s game is not going to give us a glimpse of how the Lakers and Nets matchup and a preview of the NBA Finals teams. The NBA is a superstar league and the Lakers and Nets are superstar teams. So who should be favored? That Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant are not playing should favor the Lakers as they have the deeper and more talented roster and expose the Nets who have the weaker and more flawed roster.

In addition to having the deeper and more talented bench, two other factors that should favor the Lakers are they are the top ranked defensive team in the league and also have the best superstar on the planet in LeBron James. Finally, while superstars dominate the NBA, championships are still won by teams and the Lakers at this point in time are clearly a ‘better’ team than the Nets, who are still trying to figure out how to play with each other.

Assuming their deeper and more talented roster can execute its ‘Next Man Up’ philosophy, the Lakers should be able to contain the Nets’ Harden and Irving like they consistently did to the Rockets’ Harden and Westbrook.