Lakerholics

The big question is when will AD return. If you study his stats for the regular season and playoffs, there’s some reason for concern about his decline in shooting percentages from the line, midrange, and deep since his breakout in the playoffs when he shot 57%/83%/38%. Was that a breakout or just an outlier. We all thought it was a breakout and I guess we’ll find out the second half of the season.

I still believe it was a breakout and that it was injuries that have caused the decline so far this season because it’s not just his shot. His average points, rebounds, asssists, steals, and blocks have all declined from Playoff AD. And the eyetest is telling me that the shots he’s missing are not heavily contested. They’re the same wide open shots he drained over and over in the playoffs. Count me as one who believes AD belongs in that legends picture at the top of the article besides Kareem, Wilt, and Shaq. He just might have to play a lot of center this season to get there.

This bus ain’t goin far in the playoffs without a healthy AD.

As a biased, avid life-long fan of him, I believe he will. He still hasn’t been on the court yet. I think it’ll be a little while longer.

There’s no question in my mind that the Lakers need to find a third superstar if they want to beat the Nets in the NBA Finals. The problem the Lakers face is a math problem: 3 > 2 and 2 > 1. With just LeBron and AD, the Lakers are going to always have one less superstar on the court all 48 minutes of each game.

That means either Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, or James Harden is going to be defended by someone other than LeBron James or Anthony Davis. How comfortable do you feel about that? Do you think Caruso can stop Harden 1-on-1 or Schroder can stop Kyrie 1-0n-1? How do you think our trapping and rotating defense is going to do when 3 of the 5 players the Nets have on the court are superstars? That’s going to make trapping and doubling hard.

What we need is a third superstar to level the playing field. We also need that third superstar to be a guard because two of the Nets’ three superstars are guards and neither of the two superstars we have now are guards. Yes, LeBron and AD can defend guards like Kyrie and Harden but then who defends Durant? Gasol? Trezz? Kuzma? We need a former All-Defensive player like Victor Oladipo.

Finally, the reason Oladipo is the right move is he can deliver 20+ points per game and take 7 to 8 threes per game. Right now, Kyrie and James average 29 points more than KCP and Dennis average. That’s a point differential that will kill the Lakers unless they make moves to replace KCP and Victor is the best and most affordable two-way option out there.

Put him on the court with LeBron and AD and he will become the player he was when he won MIP, All- NBA, and All-Defensive two years ago. He will thrive as a third option and be the perfect backcourt mate to play with Schroder. It’s a move the Lakers can make. It will cost KCP, Kuzma, and THT but give the Lakers the edge in wininng #18.

Hey, Bob, hope all is well with you and yours. Thanks for reading and responding.

While I love THT and still believe he’s going to be a star, I can’t see us going into the Finals with a Schroder and KCP starting backcourt which averaged 29 fewer points per game than Irving and Harden. That’s just too much for LeBron and AD to make up against KD.

The only first round pick we can trade is 2027 and nobody is going to want one that far out so THT is essentially our lottery pick to offer in a trade. His 3-point shooting is still shaky at best and he now gives teams another reason to pack the paint against us. That’s why I’m willing to trade him. Can’t waste this chance to win #18 with LeBron. We need to go all-in now.

We need a third star and he has to be a guard. A backcourt of Schroder and Oladipo could be the answer if Victor is healthy and can return to his 2018 level. I would need the docs and our scouts to confirm that for the deal to be made.

I’ve been watching him Victor and looking at a lot of video and he’s still fast and quick and a bird dog on defense, much like Dennis, but also shoots 7 to 8 threes per game, which is something we desperately need. We’d still lose the backcourt points differential but only by 17 points.

VICTOR OLADIPO COMEBACK?

These videos show Oladipo’s almost back from the injury that limited him to 45 games in 2019 and 2020.

Except for some rust on his shooting percentages, he is producing same as his peak in 2018 and has the same speed, quickness, and smooth stroke.

…

VICTOR OLADIPO AT PEAK IN 2018!

SEASON: 23.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.3 APG, 0.8 BPG, 2.1 SPG
MIP, 3RD TEAM ALL-NBA, 3RD TEAM ALL-DEF

…

VICTOR OLADIPO THIS SEASON VS. NETS!

GAME: 33 PTS, 7 REBS, 5 ASTS, 2 BLKS, 2 STLS
SEASON: 20.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.5 APG, 0.5 BPG, 1.5 SPG

Been mulling this one over a bunch. I can see you’re running hot on this topic because you will post the same info multiple times in the same sentence. The fit is undeniable: Victor Oladipo, when healthy and playing at a high level is an All-NBA caliber guard on both ends of the court. The question marks I see are usgae and health. Is he healthy enough to contribute to the same level as Kuz, KCP and THT? That’s a viable question and one that ought not to be dismissed out of hand. Third option is essentially the same as the open guy on this team, in reality, when he shares the floor with James, AD and Schroeder, he’ll be the 4th option as Dennis or James will have the ball. So we’re giving up a lot for a 3rd or 4th option.

The defensive end is where I would normally make this trade without too much quibbling. But the numbers reveal that Victor is currently enjoying one of his worst defensive seasons to date:

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/victor-oladipo-defensive-rating-by-season

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203506/

Depending on the specific metrics used it looks like it’s closer to 106+, about the same as KCP and THT. Kuzma is at 103.

Here are my issues with making this trade:
-Losing Kyle Kuzma who does a lot of everything every game and does it consistently. Kyle is looking better and better every season he plays alongside professionals. He has range, defends well, and is rebounding better than ever as a team rebounder.
-1 guy playing for 3. All three of the Lakers going out are major and fairly integral parts of the rotation. While I understand that we need to ship out that many players for the salaries to match you’re betting a lot on both AD’s health, LeBron’s continued dominance and that Oladipo has some room to improve. Both Kuzma and THT have the higher ceiling, at this point. KCP is a no-brainer to include in any trade, in my opinion.
-Victor’s health. I can see he’s putting up numbers on a garbage team. We’ve had that scenario unfold before us with guys still on the team (Kyle Kuzma, Julius Randle, even BI up until his final season where he looked like he had discovered how to do this at the pro level). Wes Matthews doesn’t show obvious signs of his Achilles injury, at this point, and still can’t get his jumper right. While Victor is suffering from the quad, the same could be said for Kawhi Leonard: looks fine, misses many games and often looks earthbound on the court.

The real obstacle I see though is that we lack what other teams can include (picks). Another would be if Vic is bound and determined to test free agency in the offseason. We’d be giving up all but one cost-controlled player (whom we have Bird rights to) for what could amount to a half season rental. All just because of, what I consider to be, an overly certain outlook that the Nets are the de facto eastern conference champs. I think Philly is a far more dangerous team, especially in the playoffs. If Embiid and Simmons are healthy they have the defense and the offense to stymie the Nets and, for all his warts, Doc RIvers has a lot more tools in the box as a coach than lil Stevie Nash.

I will say there are far worse trades out there that I’ve seen. While there are certainly hurdles to retaining his services in the offseason they are not insurmountable. He could help in several areas of deficiency. The big question I have is this: can KCP regain his playoff form and mojo? If so this trade kind of becomes unnecessary, that’s what a healthy KCP brings at a fraction of the cost. If we can get Caldwell-Pope back on the right side of his mind we get the player we’ve been scouring the NBA rumor mills for, in-house and under contract. Gravy is keeping Kyle and Talen.

This may be my favorite article I have ever written for Lakerholics. I believe it’s the perfect blueprint the Lakers need to follow to fix their rim protection and 3-point shooting problems. While it’s not a deal for a superstar or star player, it could transform the Lakers defensively and offensively.

I’ve always been a big fan of Nerlens Noel and he’s been playing great for the Knicks, who have the second best defense in the league but only the 23rd best offense. Swapping backup centers should be a win-win for both teams. Lakers get the rim protector and mobile rotating big they need to bolster their defense and a quality volume 3-point shooter to boot. Knicks get the instant offense off the bench they need to turbo charge their defense.

The deals for Ellington and Graham show that the Lakers can not only fix their negative 3-point differential but can actually transform their team into an elite 3-point shooting team. Replacing Harrell, Matthews, and THT with Bullock, Ellington, and Graham turns the Lakers into a 3-point shooting juggernaut. Those three take 18.8 threes per game versus 5.2 threes per game for the three players they replaced.

There are other centers who could fill the same role as Noel and a few other shooters who could fill the volume 3-point shooting role of Reggie, Wayne, and Devonte so this article is as much a blueprint for what Rob Pelinka and the Lakers should be looking to do as it is a recommendation of players to target in trades.

Please read and let me know what you think. Would love to see these kinds of moves during the All-Star break.

15 PLAYER DEPTH CHART:

PG: SCHRODER, Caruso, Caldwell-Pope
SG: GRAHAM, Ellington, Bullock
SF: JAMES, Kuzma, McKinney
PF: DAVIS, Morris, Dudley
CE: GASOL, Noel, Jones

Schroder and Graham give Lakers ability to have a true point guard on the court all game long.

Davis and Noel give Lakers ability to have an elite rim protector on the court all game long.

1. Montrezl Harrell for Nerlens Noel and Reggie Bullock – I’m going back and forth on this one. I love what Trezz brings to the team, especially off the bench. I’ve never thought of either Bullock or Noel as ‘energy’ guys. The main reason I don’t see this one happening is Mr. Thibbs. Coach Tom values defensive input and Nerlens is performing admirably in that role for the Knickerbockers. For the Knicks Trezz is less an issue to retain, they will have ample cap space so the one thing I could see that pushes this deal through is if Thibbs loves Harrell’s game (no clue). This brings a lot more overlap to how NY is playing, Julius is already the energy/bully ball guy on that team and Noel patrols the paint for them and finishes lobs. Bullock back to the Lakers also feels like a longshot as he has a fairly large role on NY. The Knicks have been down so long I think it would be odd to see them break up the first successful squad they’ve had in close to a decade.

2. Wesley Matthews and 2nd Round Pick for Wayne Ellington – No brainer, do it in a heartbeat.

3. Talen Horton-Tucker for Devonte Graham – Truth be told I don’t watch Charlotte unless they’re playing us. The stats fit the needs but I don’t know enough about DG to be all in on this one. The off season issues are replicated, which I would rather see a guy come in who is a little more cost-controlled, but all in all I see us retaining THT as an uphill battle. The Lakers seem quite high and pleased both Talen’s development and future. So, depending on what level that reaches to and what level of influence Klutch has over this process I could see a few extraneous factors derailing this one.

Also, it’s official: Blake Griffin getting bought out. Doesn’t sound like the Lakers are on the list of interested teams but…

How important would replacing Harrell, Matthews, and Horton-Tucker with Bullock, Ellington, and Graham?

Had Lakers scored 12.3 more points per game for first half of season, they would have lost only 3 games, had a record of 34-3, and a 6-game lead over the Utah Jazz.

That’s what improved 3-point shooting could mean for the Lakers. It’s the key to a Championship.

That’s not even counting how much more difficult it would be for opposing teams to defend LeBron and AD surrounded by elite volume 3-point shooters.

Or the impact of having a second rim protector in the game when AD was not on the floor or taking off a game. We have lost the points in the paint too many times this season.

Lakers need to make moves to add volume 3-point shooters and an elite rim protector. It’s the blueprint to beat the Clippers, Jazz, and Nets and repeat as NBA champions.

It’s no secret that I’ve coveted Myles Turner as the perfect modern center to play alongside Anthony Davis. This is obviously not my first proposed Lakers trade for the Pacers’ center.

I was disappointed when Pacers new head coach Nate Bjorkgren found early success playing Sabonis and Turner together as a twin towers pair of 6′, 11″ 240 and 250 lb centers.

But the worm has turned and the stats clearly show that the Pacers’ experiment of playing the two centers together is a bust. It’s just a matter of time before Indiana has to face the music and look to trade Turner, which is where the Lakers have a chance to score the perfect modern center to complement Anthony Davis.

Turner leads the league in blocked shots, has the size to handle bigs like Jokic and Embiid, and has the quickness and mobility to be a great fit in the Lakers aggressive trapping and rotating defense.

The idea of a Turner-Davis front court starting and closing halves and games would redefine what is a ‘Death Lineup’ and essentially put a lid on the basket when the two of them were on the court together.

Finally, locking up the Lakers’ front court of the future with the 24-year old Turner and the 27-year old Davis is worth whatever price the Lakers have to pay. I would even include Alex Caruso if necessary to pull of the trade but I think the package of Harrell, Kuzma, and THT is a fair offer. Trade machine says Pacers benefit with 3 more wins.

Lakers’ depth chart after the trade:

PG: Schroder, Caruso, Open
SG: KCP, Matthews, Open
SF: LeBron, McKinney, Open
PF: Davis, Morris, Dudley
CE: Turner, Gasol, Jones

Three spots open for the buyout or trade market:
Maybe IT, Ellington, and Ariza?

Let me know what you think? Thanks.

The main attraction of trading for Myles Turner is his fit alongside Anthony Davis and LeBron James. In fact, I’d even go further by saying there may not be a better fit alongside Davis and James in the entire league than Myles Turner for the following reaons:

1. His rim protection as shown by his shot blocks.
2. His mobility to defend out of the paint as shown by his steals.
3. His offensive ability to stretch defenses with 3-point shoting.
4. HIs offensive ability to dunk off lobs and rebounds.
5. His age at 24 is a perfect match with Anthony Davis
6. His 2.5 years remaining on his contract for $18 million/year.

Is there any other center who you think would be a better target for the Lakers to pursue?

Need to add TJ McConnell and Dougie “McBuckets” in that trade LakerTom.

Like I said in the podcast last night, the Lakers don’t really care about this game other than to finish the first half with no more injuries. Makes sense to give LeBron the night off. We should be able to handle the Kings without LeBron and AD and the game itself is just 1 of 72. Don’t risk anybody getting hurt, especially LeBron after playing last night.