Lakerholics

One of the most tantalizing possibilities from signing Andre Drummond as the Lakers’ starting center is the possibility he might enable Anthony Davis to completely avoid playing the five for the rest of the season and playoffs.

We already know Davis prefers to play the four and the Lakers want to accommodate him to limit the physicality and banging of having him play the five, especially considering his longtime history of being injury prone. Last year, AD played more than 25% of his minutes at center in the regular season and more than 60% during the playoffs. This year that percentage has plummeted to less than 10% of his minutes during this regular season.

So it’s not a stretch to assume one of the Lakers’ motivations last offseason was to replace JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard with centers who could play more minutes to reduce the time Anthony Davis would play at center. While Gasol and Harrell were able to play enough minutes to allow Davis to stay at power forward, they were unable to provide the rim protection that had been an integral component of last year’s regular season defense.

Fortunately, the Lakers were able to sign Andre Drummond from the buyout market, giving them a proven 27-year old center who averaged 17.5 points, 13.5 boards, 2.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 blocks in 28.9 minutes per game. The Lakers hope they struck gold with Drummond and found not only a shot blocker to solve their rim protection woes but also a mobile and nimble big who could stay on the floor when they turn up the defensive pressure.

Drummond being able to successfully function in the aggressive trapping, doubling, and rotating team defense the Lakers unleashed in last year’s playoffs to win the championship is not as crazy and farfetched as it seems. Andre has incredibly quick feet and hands for a 6′ 10,” 280 lbs player and leads all centers with 1.6 steals to go along with his 1.2 blocks per game. And that was while not focusing on defense while playing on losing teams.

Motivated and committed to playing elite level defense, Andre Drummond potentially has the physical talents to not only be the Lakers’ starting center but also to play the five in what used to be their ‘small ball’ closing defense. The possibility Andre could learn to play the five so Anthony could play the four when the Lakers deploy their lethal switching and rotating defense is intoxicating and could be the key to the team repeating as champions.

Replacing Markieff Morris with Andre Drummond could make the Lakers ‘Death Lineup’ defense even more lethal. A front court with three long bigs like James, Davis, and Drummond could be intimidating and dominating. Their length alone could put a virtual lid on the basket and narrow the passing lanes from freeways to sidewalks while their mobility and quickness could suffocate opposing teams with a trio of pterodactyls chasing the ball.

Andre Drummond playing full-time at the five and allowing Anthony Davis to play most of the game at the four opens up important minutes at the five for forgotten man Montrezl Harrell, who now becomes the backup center. Harrell getting 20 minutes per game off the bench to do his thing is one of the big advantages of Drummond saving Davis from playing the five. It could even free minutes for Gasol to play the five against certain matchups.

While the Lakers won’t be able to re-sign him, Drummond could provide a template for the Lakers to follow this summer and trade for a modern center like Myles Turner so Anthony Davis could avoid playing the five.

Lakers coach Frank Vogel and his staff have a major challenge to figure out how to still take advantage of Montrezl Harrell since the signing of Andre Drummond is going to create a big minutes crunch at the center position.

Since the start of the second half of the season, the Lakers have discovered how to unleash Montrezl Harrell to be the major offensive force he was last year as 6MOY by featuring him in pick-and-rolls to let him attack the rim. The result has been Trezz averaging 20.2 points and 6.8 boards in 29.9 minutes in the 10 games since the All-Star break versus 13.8 points and 6.4 boards in 24.1 minutes per game for the 37 games before the break.

Trezz is a powerful offensive weapon off the bench that Frank Vogel and the Lakers’ coaching staff needs to find a way to still take advantage now that they’ve signed Andre Drummond to replace Marc Gasol as starting center. The challenge is how to get Harrell the minutes off the bench to continue to impact the game the way he has when minutes at the center position are going to suddenly become scarce down the stretch and in the playoffs.

With Davis a few weeks from returning and Drummond still needing time to get back into shape after not playing for six weeks. the minutes crunch won’t rear its ugly head right away but it’s going to be a problem in the playoffs. Harrell is averaging 25.3 minutes per game, Gasol 19.8 minutes per game, and Drummond 28.9 minutes. Add Anthony Davis, who averaged 22.6 minutes at center in last year’s playoffs, and the total is 96.6 minutes.

For the record, that is actually more than double the 48 minutes is an NBA game, which means the Lakers’ coaching staff could face a monumental game of musical chairs at the center position once they get to the playoffs. Complicating the probable serious number crunch further is Frank Vogel declaring “he wants to be able to play Marc Gasol, Montrezl Harrell and Andre Drummond when the Lakers get to the postseason for flexibility.”

You have to love Vogel spreading the love and keeping all of his centers engaged but there’s going to be a major scarcity of minutes in the playoffs for every Lakers centers not named Andre Drummond and Anthony Davis. While it’s nice to have Gasol’s 3-point shooting and passing and Harrell’s energy and low post scoring in your back pocket, both are players who can only play one position and are simply bad fits alongside Drummond.

All of this assumes Andre Drummond will not only be the Lakers’ starting center in the playoffs but will also play big minutes. Whether that happens will obviously depend on how well he performs during the regular season. Should Andre follow the example set by Dwight and focus on being the player the Lakers need on defense and not the player he wants to be on offense, then he’ll earn a starting role and major minutes in the playoffs.

While Drummond will start, he’ll probably be limited to around 20 minutes per game due to his poor free throw shooting and the Lakers’ preference for Anthony Davis at the five and Markieff Morris at the four to close games. Assuming Marc Gasol is the odd man out, that leaves Drummond with 20 to 22 minutes of potential playing time at center with a good percentage of that time with Anthony Davis at the four covering his back defensively.

That would give the Lakers a breakdown in the playoffs of 20 to 22 minutes per game each for Drummond and Harrell at center and 4 to 8 minutes per game for Davis at center, which should help AD avoid low post physicality. That could be an excellent basic template for allocating center minutes in the playoffs with the actual playing time varying as needed for matchups when teams opt to go small or the Lakers need to ramp up their defense.

Montrezl Harrell has become too good a weapon off the bench for the Lakers not to prioritize figuring out how to still optimize him even if it means Andre Drummond and Anthony Davis playing fewer minutes as the five.

There’ve been great conversations in the media and blogs whether Andre should change his game to match the Lakers’ needs or whether the Lakers should take advantage of his unique strengths and adjust their approach?

Now that Andre has reached agreement to join the Los Angeles Lakers, it’s going to be fascinating to find out exactly what his role on the team will be and how much the Lakers’ strategy on offense and defense will change. Drummond brings skills the Lakers need to repeat as champs, including elite rebounding, low post scoring, physical size, and solid rim protection. But integrating him into a championship team is not a simple slam dunk.

Drummond is looking at the starting center position on the Lakers as the perfect team and situation to best showcase his talents to convince a team to offer him a max contract as an unrestricted free agent next summer. Ideally, he wants to start and close games, play big minutes, and be featured on offense. Money and even the lure of a championship are not paramount. Drummond is primarily focused on helping his career, brand, and future.

The Lakers, of course, know all of this but they also needed to sell Andre that joining the Lakers would give him the ideal stage and best opportunity to show the world what he can accomplish playing on a championship team. The Lakers goal is a championship with everybody pulling in the same direction. That means Andre and the Lakers had to reach an important meeting of the minds to balance the needs of the player and team.

So let’s take a look at the role Drummond and the Lakers could have agreed upon and highlight the areas where the needs of the player and team could have conflicted and how those conflicts might have been resolved.

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STARTING AND CLOSING

There’s no question Andre Drummond will be the Lakers’ starting center. The more important question is will he close games, especially once we get into the playoffs when the Lakers prefer to close with AD at the five?

While there will be matchups where LA may need Drummond and Davis on the floor together to close games, there’s no way the Lakers promised Andre that he would automatically be on the team’s closing lineup for every game. While Frank Vogel has usually stayed with a consistent starting lineup, he’s also always preferred to adjust who closes games for the Lakers, depending on the matchups and who’s been playing well. That’s not going to change.

While Andre is likely to be the starter most of the time, there may be games where teams go small and the Lakers decide to matchup. In the end, the Lakers and Andre have likely agreed coach Vogel would make those calls.

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FEATURED ON OFFENSE

The Lakers are first and foremost LeBron James’ and Anthony Davis’ team and Andre Drummond signing with them is not going to change that. Andre will get his share of touches but he’ll still be the Lakers’ third option.

Whether the Lakers feature Andre Drummond on offense will be another decision that has to be matchup driven. The Lakers won’t have a problem dumping the ball inside to Andre if he has a clear cut matchup advantage. However, they’re not going to suddenly turn into a team whose top priority is to feed the ball into the post as if Andre Drummond was Shaquille O’Neal. Andre will get his opportunities but only within the flow of the game.

Drummond is smart enough to understand this is LeBron’s and AD’s team and knows that proving he can play winning basketball on a championship team will be worth more in free agency this summer than inflated stats.

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MINUTES AND SHOTS

Andre Drummond will average around 32 minutes per game depending on matchups, which is in line with his recent and career numbers. But there will be sporadic games where he’ll play fewer minutes due to matchups.

As for shots, Drummond averaged a career high 15.2 shots per game for the Cavs this season. He’s not going to get that many shots with the Lakers, who will be looking for him to improve both his shot selection and efficiency. LeBron James averages 18.4 and Anthony Davis 16.7 shots per game for a total of 35.1 or about 40% of the team’s 86 shots per game. The only way Andre is going to get 15 shots per game is dominating the offensive glass.

Andre Drummond will be the Lakers third star when it comes to minutes, shots, and points scored but playing on the Lakers with LeBron should enable him to discover and showcase his best possible version as a player.

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IMPACT ON ROSTER

Andre Drummond’s arrival will have major consequences for the Lakers’ current two centers, Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell. Gasol will probably find himself playing rarely and Harrell his minutes dramatically reduced.

Vogel faces a daunting challenge distributing center minutes. Harrell is averaging 25.3 and Gasol 19.8 minutes per game. Without AD, that leaves just 16 minutes for the other centers if Andre plays 32 minutes per game. Until AD returns, Harrell should get most of the remaining minutes while Gasol sits. The big crunch will come when AD returns. Vogel may have to get creative to find minutes for Harrell with Davis to avoid losing his impact.

Once we’re in the playoffs and the Lakers go small and need Anthony Davis to play more minutes at the five defensively, Drummond and Harrell could both see their minutes and roles diminish significantly the deeper LA goes.

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There’s no question signing Andre Drummond was a big and necessary move by the Lakers. They desperately needed more size and athleticism at the five than either Gasol or Harrell could provide to repeat as champions.

The big challenge now that Drummond is aboard is still finding a way to take advantage of Trezz’s great energy and scoring at the rim. Unfortunately, Drummond and Harrell together just doesn’t work in the modern NBA. Further complicating the situation, the Lakers may need Davis play the five in the playoffs even more this year than last year as neither Drummond or Harrell are great fits for the team’s championship defensive schemes.

The Lakers were fortunate to sign Andre Drummond and hopefully he and the team have agreed upon a role that will bring another championship but Frank Vogel and the coaches will have to figure out how to make it work.

Yes, it’s a long shot but there’s something insanely karmic and stealthily savvy about the Lakers bringing back two former players who were both awarded championship rings by the team despite missing the playoffs.

The Lakers reportedly were interested in signing Boogie a few weeks ago but wanted to wait to see if Andre Drummond were bought out. While the Lakers are now the favorites to land Drummond, it’s still not a slam dunk. There are also serious questions whether Andre would be a good fit for the Lakers, especially in the playoffs when Anthony Davis will have to play a major share of the minutes at center if LA hopes to repeat as champions.

But aside from the karma of DeMarcus and Avery getting an opportunity to earn the championship rings they were awarded, there are three compelling reasons why they could be the best out-of-the-box options for the Lakers.

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1. TEAM CHEMISTRY

Let’s be honest. One of the reasons the Lakers won the NBA championship last year was their strong team chemistry and involving key players in trade deadline discussions could have undermined and damaged that chemistry.

There’s also no question that DeMarcus Cousins and Avery Bradley were valued members of the Lakers’ championship team who would be eagerly and fully welcomed back and help repair any damage that had been done. Contrast that with the potential problems of bringing in an outsider like Andre Drummond or say Lou Williams, who don’t have the history and relationships that Boogie and Bradley have and might cause friction.

While Cousins and Bradley could be invaluable contributors to the Lakers repeating as champs, they would not likely start or dramatically change the team’s rotations but they would clearly strengthen the Lakers’ chemistry.

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2. FLOOR SPACING

The proven formula for winning with LeBron has always been to surround him with high percentage, high volume 3-point shooting. Right now, the Lakers rank 25th in 3-point attempts and 22nd in 3-point percentage.

The default strategy to slow down LeBron is for defenders to sag off his teammates and clog the paint to prevent him from attacking the rim. The Lakers need willing shooters who can take and make more 3-point shots. Cousins and Bradley can do that. Drummond can’t. Boogie averaged 33.6% on 4.6 threes in 20.2 minutes while Bradley averaged 42.1% on 3.8 threes in 21.1 minutes. Drummond missed all 8 of the threes he took this year.

The offensive challenge the Lakers will face in this year’s playoffs is going to be winning or limiting the 3-point shooting differential. The Lakers need to take and make more threes than they’re doing now to repeat as champs.

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3. OVERALL FIT

Once the Lakers get into the playoffs, Anthony Davis is going to play the five half the time like last year with Morris or Kuzma at the four against most opponents. Bradley can help those lineups. Cousins and Drummond can’t.

The issue then becomes what to do with the time when AD is not playing the five. What the Lakers don’t want to happen is the the team standing around force feeding the ball into the post for an inefficient Drummond to go 1-on-1. That time would be far better utilized by Boogie playing a stretch five and opening up lanes for LeBron and AD to attack the rim or by LeBron, Dennis, Avery, and THT running pick-and-rolls with Montrezl for layups and dunks.

The last thing the Lakers need right now is to add a player who needs the ball to showcase himself to earn a max contract this summer. The Lakers should focus on adding players who enhance the team and how we play.

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The Lakers front office essentially gave this roster a vote of confidence with their decision to not make the trade for Lowry. They obviously believe the Lakers have the superstars and supporting cast to win the championship.

While we do need size and better rim protection, there’s a good argument that Cousins could be just as effective in that tole as Drummond and certainly a better fit offensively with his playmaking and shooting. There’s also the issue of expectation which could result in friction that could hurt the Lakers already stressed team chemistry. This may be the time for the Lakers to double down on tweaking rather than revamping how they play.

When you consider the importance of team chemistry, floor spacing, and overall fit, signing Cousins and Bradley and giving them the opportunity to earn another ring to go with the one we gave them last year makes sense. Cousins and Bradley would allow the Lakers to play the same style with AD at center that won the title last year and incorporate this season’s success with Gasol as a stretch five and Harrell as a pick-and-roll finisher.

While there’s something insanely karmic and stealthily savvy about the Lakers bringing back two players who were both awarded championship rings by the team despite missing the playoffs, here’s hoping it will happen.

The Los Angeles Lakers appeared to have outlasted first the Philadelphia 76ers and then the Miami Heat to pull off a mega trade for Kyle Lowry and win today’s NBA Trade Deadline Sweepstakes only to sadly fold their cards.

In the end, the Lakers refused to include 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker in their offer of Dennis Schroder and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for Kyle Lowry and the Raptors’ Masai Ujuri called Rob Pelinka’s bluff and nixed the trade. The Raptors kept the 35-year old Lowry and the Lakers came up empty, even failing to make tweaks to what is a seriously flawed roster desperately in need of a playmaking guard, rim protecting center, and 3-point shooting.

As a longtime resident of THT Island, I’m glad Talen is still wearing purple and gold but also disappointed Rob did not pull the trigger on the trade for Kyle Lowry, whom I think could have made the Lakers dramatically better. But as I’ve said many times, I trust Rob Pelinka to make the right decisions for the Lakers and understand, as fans, we never have the benefit of the inside information, insights, or expertise of our front office professionals.

While I’m sure will learn more about what happened the next few days, here are my thoughts about the decision not to trade for Lowry and the questions it raises for the rest of the Lakers’ season and next summer:

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The first question is why did the Lakers refuse to include 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker in the trade since his contribution over the next two years was unlikely to be as great as that of a 35-year old All-Star like Kyle Lowry?

To start with, the Lakers may not have wanted to commit to giving Lowry the 2-year $50 million extension he wanted if traded. The reason they were willing to trade Schroder was the 4-year $100 million extension he wanted. Further, part of the reason they were willing to trade Caldwell-Pope was his 3-year $40 million extension. The Lakers clearly wanted to cut salary with Caruso and Horton-Tucker entering free agency and luxury taxes looming.

Then there’s the obvious reluctance to part with 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker, whom the Lakers believe has legitimate star potential. Pelinka has done a great job balancing the demands to win now with the Lakers’ future. Horton-Tucker is a Klutch Sports client and a player the Lakers drafted on the specific recommendation of LeBron James. It’s entirely possible James and Davis were participants in a decision not to include THT in any trades.

In the end, the Lakers obviously felt confident that they could still win the championship with their current roster and a healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis plus whomever they could sign from the buyout market.

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The next question is what does not making a trade mean for the Lakers, both for the 2 to 3 weeks remaining before AD returns and the 3 to 5 weeks left before LeBron returns, as well as down the stretch and in the playoffs?

The good news is Marc Gasol will return for tonight’s game against the 76ers, although on a 15-minute limit. With Embiid still injured and trade deadline in the rear view mirror, the Lakers will need to be ready to play. The front office just made a huge bet on them to be able to do the job. Dennis Schroder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Talen Horton-Tucker need to show everybody the confidence shown in them was not misplaced.

The Lakers are 5.5 point underdogs tonight. They have 28 games left in the regular season, probably 10 more games before Davis returns, another 10 more before James returns, and then a final 8 before the playoffs begin. They’re currently in 4th place in the West, just two losses ahead of the 6th place Trail Blazers. To finish in the top 6 in the West, the 28–16 Lakers will have to finish close to 42–30, which means finishing the season 14–14.

Assuming they sign Drummond and another rotation player in the buyout market and James and Davis return when expected, the Lakers should be able to play .500 ball the rest of the way and avoid the play-in tourney.

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Assuming LeBron James and Anthony Davis are rested and healthy for the playoffs, the Lakers should have a good chance of repeating even though the competition will be much tougher this year than last year in the bubble.

The key could be how well Frank Vogel can integrate Andre Drummond into the Lakers’ offense and defense and whether they can sign a quality high volume 3-point shooter in the buyout market to increase their made threes. We saw promising signs from the Harrell, Kuzma, and Horton-Tucker bench before James went down with the injury and the Lakers are going to need that trio to grow and develop down the stretch and in the playoffs to repeat.

They’re also going to need Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Markieff Morris, and Anthony Davis to play like they did in last year’s playoffs to have any chance of winning four playoff series and repeating as NBA champions this year. Schroder and Horton-Tucker are going to have to replace the magic Playoff Rondo provided last season and Anthony Davis is going to have match the hot long range shooting and dominating defense he provided last year.

Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office bet this team could still win the championship without making a major trade. I’m hoping they were right and I was wrong because that’s what today’s decision was really about.

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Finally, the biggest worry may be how today’s decision not to make any trades will impact the Lakers this summer as they basically kicked the can on making critically needed improvement down the road until this offseason.

As a taxpayer, they will not be able to take advantage of the non-taxpayer MLE or BAE or sign-and-trades as there’s no way they can keep Caruso and Horton-Tucker in free agency if they become hard capped like this season. The built-in raises for James, Davis, and Caldwell-Pope, Kuzma’s extension kicking in, and re-signing Caruso and Horton-Tucker will push the Lakers into the luxury tax. Win or lose, trades will be the only way to improve.

The Lakers prospects next summer will depend heavily on whether or not they repeat as champions. If they did, the goal will be to threepeat and the bet on the current roster and maybe Talen Horton-Tucker paid off big. Unfortunately, if they lose, everybody will look back at the decision to not trade for Kyle Lowry, LeBron will be a year older, and the Lakers may face tough decision about how to get their championship mojo back.

Right now, the next big battle is to sign Andre Drummond and a second rotation player who is a volume 3-point shooter and plus defender to help the Lakers weather the storm and win games until LeBron and AD get back.