Lakerholics

Life is always full of irony. April 15th has always been a day of infamy for most Americans as income taxes become due but, in this crazy Covid colored world, it could be a day of resurrection for the Los Angeles Lakers.

Not only has the IRS changed the due date for filing income taxes for this year to May 17 but the Lakers are working with California health officials to begin welcoming back live fans to Staples Center starting on April 15th. Meanwhile, Marc Stein of the New York Times has reported that there’s a good chance Anthony Davis may return to action after the team’s 7-gtame road trip when the Lakers play the Celtics at Staples Center on April 15.

Finally, to put the cherry on top of this pipe dream sundae, LeBron James has finally taken off the protective boot he’s been wearing while recovering from his high ankle sprain and could possibly be ready to return by April 15. So if the Lakers can survive another week and steal a few more wins over the next four games, they might be able start their resurrection and drive to the playoffs on April 15 in front of fans and maybe with both LeBron and AD.

Right now the Lakers are in 5th place in the West with a 32–19 record. If they can win three of the last four games on the road trip, they would head into the second half of April 35–20 with 17 games remaining before the playoffs. While the Jazz are seven and Suns five losses ahead of them, the Lakers could have a realistic chance of overtaking both the Clippers and Nuggets who are just one loss ahead of them and securing the 3rd seed in the West.

3rd seed is a lot better than being 7th through 10th and having to win in the Play-In Tournament just to get into the playoffs. It would also force the 4th and 5th seed Clippers and Nuggets to play each other in a first round series. The Lakers as 3rd seed would likely play the Blazers or or Mavericks in the first round, then the 2nd seed Suns in the second round, and then the 1st seed Jazz, or 4th or 5th seed Clippers or Nuggets in the conference finals.

While it’s not a sure thing that we’ll see fans in Staples and LeBron and AD in the lineup on April 15, there’s certainly a chance it could happen then or soon after. We know how much LeBron and the team have missed their fans. Suddenly, home court could once again become a major advantage and finishing 3rd would insure the Lakers home court in the first round of the playoffs and in the conference finals against any team but the Utah Jazz.

There’s also the possibility the Lakers may decide April 15 should be the day they hang the 2020 NBA Championship banner. If they do that, it’s hard for me imagine LeBron James not wanting to lace up his sneakers and play.

Frank Vogel declaring the Lakers’ top ranked defense or deep and talented roster is their third star makes for a great sound bite but the truth is none of the team’s role players have the skillset or mindset to be the ‘ Next Man Up.’

In the end, the Lakers’ opportunity to repeat as champs may fail due to their lack one or more players with star potential willing to accept a lessor role to win a ring but capable of taking their game to another level when needed. Robert Horry, Dennis Rodman, Tony Parker, Andre Iguodala, Rajon Rondo. Players who can step up and play like a star and save the day. Players who become stars given the opportunity. That’s what the Lakers are missing.

Playoff Rondo is now playing for the Clippers. Maybe Kenny will suddenly find his mojo again and we’ll see Playoff KCP or maybe Kuz will wake from his funk and finally deliver the promise he showed early. Maybe. Maybe.

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The injuries to LeBron James and Anthony Davis have exposed the Lakers’ Achilles heel, which is they are overly reliant on their two superstars and don’t have any other players on the roster capable of rising to the occasion.

No disrespect but Dennis Schroder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, Montrezl Harrell, Alex Caruso, Wesley Matthews, Markieff Morris, Marc Gasol, Talen Horton-Tucker, or Andre Drummond are not potential stars. They’re a collection of flawed role players whose skills and abilities are expanded and magnified playing with LeBron James and Anthony Davis but diminished and limited when forced to play outside their roles.

That was painfully obvious watching the Lakers lose to the Bucks last night. While they might be able to pull out a win here or there against a team like the Cavs or Magic, they have no chance of beating a team with a superstar. Unless one of their role players suddenly transforms into a star or the team miraculously clicks and synergy overpowers reality, the Lakers are headed for 7th or 8th in the West at best and a ticket to the Play-In Tournament.

Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell can create energy and get you points but they’re not what the Lakers need at point guard offensively or center defensively. They’re short term solutions that will move on this summer. Kuzma and Caldwell-Pope were hoped to be long term parts of the puzzle but are looking more and more like trading chips the Lakers will be forced to cash in this summer to solve their problems at point guard and center.

Bench GOAT Caruso and budding star Horton-Tucker will be free agents looking for raises this summer. Both are fan favorites whom the Lakers have rights and are expected to go over the cap to retain on the roster. Then there are Gasol and Mathews, both of whom are older veterans who have struggled to live up expectations but have little value as trading chips and are likely to be odd men out come the stretch run and the playoffs.

The Lakers deep and talented roster is a mirage that disappears without LeBron James and Anthony Davis. There’s simply nobody on the roster who can be counted upon to take his game to the next level with needed.

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Jeanie Buss, Rob Pelinka, Frank Vogel, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Laker players to a man still believe they can still win the championship regardless of where they’re seed or who the opposition turns out to be.

The Lakers hoped Andre Drummond might be third star they’ll need should they make it to the NBA Finals and get an opportunity to play the Nets and their Superstar Big Three of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden. Based on what we saw last night against the Bucks, it looks like Drummond won’t be the third star the Lakers were hoping and praying would solve their rim protection and low post scoring woes until LeBron and AD return.

That’s disappointing but not unexpected. The Los Angeles Lakers’ front office apparently believes all the team needs to repeat is for LeBron James and Anthony Davis to be healthy and ready to play in time for the playoffs. The problem is this is not last year in the bubble where the Lakers luckily avoiding playing the Clippers and Bucks, their top two competitors. The Lakers will likely face a playoff quarter of the Suns, Clippers, Jazz, and Nets.

The Lakers had a chance to trade some of their role player depth and talent to add a second tier star like Kyle Lowry or Victor Oladipo to their roster but opted instead to gamble that Andre Drummond could be that third star. While the Lakers bet on Andre Drummond, the Nets added Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge, the Clippers Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins, the Heat Victor Oladipo and Trevor Ariza, and the Nuggets Aaron Gordon.

The Lakers have one roster spot left and would be smart to be patient and use it on a player who could be a difference maker, who could be that third star they need to run the playoff gauntlet and match up with Brooklyn.

One of the most tantalizing possibilities from signing Andre Drummond as the Lakers’ starting center is the possibility he might enable Anthony Davis to completely avoid playing the five for the rest of the season and playoffs.

We already know Davis prefers to play the four and the Lakers want to accommodate him to limit the physicality and banging of having him play the five, especially considering his longtime history of being injury prone. Last year, AD played more than 25% of his minutes at center in the regular season and more than 60% during the playoffs. This year that percentage has plummeted to less than 10% of his minutes during this regular season.

So it’s not a stretch to assume one of the Lakers’ motivations last offseason was to replace JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard with centers who could play more minutes to reduce the time Anthony Davis would play at center. While Gasol and Harrell were able to play enough minutes to allow Davis to stay at power forward, they were unable to provide the rim protection that had been an integral component of last year’s regular season defense.

Fortunately, the Lakers were able to sign Andre Drummond from the buyout market, giving them a proven 27-year old center who averaged 17.5 points, 13.5 boards, 2.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 blocks in 28.9 minutes per game. The Lakers hope they struck gold with Drummond and found not only a shot blocker to solve their rim protection woes but also a mobile and nimble big who could stay on the floor when they turn up the defensive pressure.

Drummond being able to successfully function in the aggressive trapping, doubling, and rotating team defense the Lakers unleashed in last year’s playoffs to win the championship is not as crazy and farfetched as it seems. Andre has incredibly quick feet and hands for a 6′ 10,” 280 lbs player and leads all centers with 1.6 steals to go along with his 1.2 blocks per game. And that was while not focusing on defense while playing on losing teams.

Motivated and committed to playing elite level defense, Andre Drummond potentially has the physical talents to not only be the Lakers’ starting center but also to play the five in what used to be their ‘small ball’ closing defense. The possibility Andre could learn to play the five so Anthony could play the four when the Lakers deploy their lethal switching and rotating defense is intoxicating and could be the key to the team repeating as champions.

Replacing Markieff Morris with Andre Drummond could make the Lakers ‘Death Lineup’ defense even more lethal. A front court with three long bigs like James, Davis, and Drummond could be intimidating and dominating. Their length alone could put a virtual lid on the basket and narrow the passing lanes from freeways to sidewalks while their mobility and quickness could suffocate opposing teams with a trio of pterodactyls chasing the ball.

Andre Drummond playing full-time at the five and allowing Anthony Davis to play most of the game at the four opens up important minutes at the five for forgotten man Montrezl Harrell, who now becomes the backup center. Harrell getting 20 minutes per game off the bench to do his thing is one of the big advantages of Drummond saving Davis from playing the five. It could even free minutes for Gasol to play the five against certain matchups.

While the Lakers won’t be able to re-sign him, Drummond could provide a template for the Lakers to follow this summer and trade for a modern center like Myles Turner so Anthony Davis could avoid playing the five.

Lakers coach Frank Vogel and his staff have a major challenge to figure out how to still take advantage of Montrezl Harrell since the signing of Andre Drummond is going to create a big minutes crunch at the center position.

Since the start of the second half of the season, the Lakers have discovered how to unleash Montrezl Harrell to be the major offensive force he was last year as 6MOY by featuring him in pick-and-rolls to let him attack the rim. The result has been Trezz averaging 20.2 points and 6.8 boards in 29.9 minutes in the 10 games since the All-Star break versus 13.8 points and 6.4 boards in 24.1 minutes per game for the 37 games before the break.

Trezz is a powerful offensive weapon off the bench that Frank Vogel and the Lakers’ coaching staff needs to find a way to still take advantage now that they’ve signed Andre Drummond to replace Marc Gasol as starting center. The challenge is how to get Harrell the minutes off the bench to continue to impact the game the way he has when minutes at the center position are going to suddenly become scarce down the stretch and in the playoffs.

With Davis a few weeks from returning and Drummond still needing time to get back into shape after not playing for six weeks. the minutes crunch won’t rear its ugly head right away but it’s going to be a problem in the playoffs. Harrell is averaging 25.3 minutes per game, Gasol 19.8 minutes per game, and Drummond 28.9 minutes. Add Anthony Davis, who averaged 22.6 minutes at center in last year’s playoffs, and the total is 96.6 minutes.

For the record, that is actually more than double the 48 minutes is an NBA game, which means the Lakers’ coaching staff could face a monumental game of musical chairs at the center position once they get to the playoffs. Complicating the probable serious number crunch further is Frank Vogel declaring “he wants to be able to play Marc Gasol, Montrezl Harrell and Andre Drummond when the Lakers get to the postseason for flexibility.”

You have to love Vogel spreading the love and keeping all of his centers engaged but there’s going to be a major scarcity of minutes in the playoffs for every Lakers centers not named Andre Drummond and Anthony Davis. While it’s nice to have Gasol’s 3-point shooting and passing and Harrell’s energy and low post scoring in your back pocket, both are players who can only play one position and are simply bad fits alongside Drummond.

All of this assumes Andre Drummond will not only be the Lakers’ starting center in the playoffs but will also play big minutes. Whether that happens will obviously depend on how well he performs during the regular season. Should Andre follow the example set by Dwight and focus on being the player the Lakers need on defense and not the player he wants to be on offense, then he’ll earn a starting role and major minutes in the playoffs.

While Drummond will start, he’ll probably be limited to around 20 minutes per game due to his poor free throw shooting and the Lakers’ preference for Anthony Davis at the five and Markieff Morris at the four to close games. Assuming Marc Gasol is the odd man out, that leaves Drummond with 20 to 22 minutes of potential playing time at center with a good percentage of that time with Anthony Davis at the four covering his back defensively.

That would give the Lakers a breakdown in the playoffs of 20 to 22 minutes per game each for Drummond and Harrell at center and 4 to 8 minutes per game for Davis at center, which should help AD avoid low post physicality. That could be an excellent basic template for allocating center minutes in the playoffs with the actual playing time varying as needed for matchups when teams opt to go small or the Lakers need to ramp up their defense.

Montrezl Harrell has become too good a weapon off the bench for the Lakers not to prioritize figuring out how to still optimize him even if it means Andre Drummond and Anthony Davis playing fewer minutes as the five.

There’ve been great conversations in the media and blogs whether Andre should change his game to match the Lakers’ needs or whether the Lakers should take advantage of his unique strengths and adjust their approach?

Now that Andre has reached agreement to join the Los Angeles Lakers, it’s going to be fascinating to find out exactly what his role on the team will be and how much the Lakers’ strategy on offense and defense will change. Drummond brings skills the Lakers need to repeat as champs, including elite rebounding, low post scoring, physical size, and solid rim protection. But integrating him into a championship team is not a simple slam dunk.

Drummond is looking at the starting center position on the Lakers as the perfect team and situation to best showcase his talents to convince a team to offer him a max contract as an unrestricted free agent next summer. Ideally, he wants to start and close games, play big minutes, and be featured on offense. Money and even the lure of a championship are not paramount. Drummond is primarily focused on helping his career, brand, and future.

The Lakers, of course, know all of this but they also needed to sell Andre that joining the Lakers would give him the ideal stage and best opportunity to show the world what he can accomplish playing on a championship team. The Lakers goal is a championship with everybody pulling in the same direction. That means Andre and the Lakers had to reach an important meeting of the minds to balance the needs of the player and team.

So let’s take a look at the role Drummond and the Lakers could have agreed upon and highlight the areas where the needs of the player and team could have conflicted and how those conflicts might have been resolved.

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STARTING AND CLOSING

There’s no question Andre Drummond will be the Lakers’ starting center. The more important question is will he close games, especially once we get into the playoffs when the Lakers prefer to close with AD at the five?

While there will be matchups where LA may need Drummond and Davis on the floor together to close games, there’s no way the Lakers promised Andre that he would automatically be on the team’s closing lineup for every game. While Frank Vogel has usually stayed with a consistent starting lineup, he’s also always preferred to adjust who closes games for the Lakers, depending on the matchups and who’s been playing well. That’s not going to change.

While Andre is likely to be the starter most of the time, there may be games where teams go small and the Lakers decide to matchup. In the end, the Lakers and Andre have likely agreed coach Vogel would make those calls.

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FEATURED ON OFFENSE

The Lakers are first and foremost LeBron James’ and Anthony Davis’ team and Andre Drummond signing with them is not going to change that. Andre will get his share of touches but he’ll still be the Lakers’ third option.

Whether the Lakers feature Andre Drummond on offense will be another decision that has to be matchup driven. The Lakers won’t have a problem dumping the ball inside to Andre if he has a clear cut matchup advantage. However, they’re not going to suddenly turn into a team whose top priority is to feed the ball into the post as if Andre Drummond was Shaquille O’Neal. Andre will get his opportunities but only within the flow of the game.

Drummond is smart enough to understand this is LeBron’s and AD’s team and knows that proving he can play winning basketball on a championship team will be worth more in free agency this summer than inflated stats.

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MINUTES AND SHOTS

Andre Drummond will average around 32 minutes per game depending on matchups, which is in line with his recent and career numbers. But there will be sporadic games where he’ll play fewer minutes due to matchups.

As for shots, Drummond averaged a career high 15.2 shots per game for the Cavs this season. He’s not going to get that many shots with the Lakers, who will be looking for him to improve both his shot selection and efficiency. LeBron James averages 18.4 and Anthony Davis 16.7 shots per game for a total of 35.1 or about 40% of the team’s 86 shots per game. The only way Andre is going to get 15 shots per game is dominating the offensive glass.

Andre Drummond will be the Lakers third star when it comes to minutes, shots, and points scored but playing on the Lakers with LeBron should enable him to discover and showcase his best possible version as a player.

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IMPACT ON ROSTER

Andre Drummond’s arrival will have major consequences for the Lakers’ current two centers, Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell. Gasol will probably find himself playing rarely and Harrell his minutes dramatically reduced.

Vogel faces a daunting challenge distributing center minutes. Harrell is averaging 25.3 and Gasol 19.8 minutes per game. Without AD, that leaves just 16 minutes for the other centers if Andre plays 32 minutes per game. Until AD returns, Harrell should get most of the remaining minutes while Gasol sits. The big crunch will come when AD returns. Vogel may have to get creative to find minutes for Harrell with Davis to avoid losing his impact.

Once we’re in the playoffs and the Lakers go small and need Anthony Davis to play more minutes at the five defensively, Drummond and Harrell could both see their minutes and roles diminish significantly the deeper LA goes.

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There’s no question signing Andre Drummond was a big and necessary move by the Lakers. They desperately needed more size and athleticism at the five than either Gasol or Harrell could provide to repeat as champions.

The big challenge now that Drummond is aboard is still finding a way to take advantage of Trezz’s great energy and scoring at the rim. Unfortunately, Drummond and Harrell together just doesn’t work in the modern NBA. Further complicating the situation, the Lakers may need Davis play the five in the playoffs even more this year than last year as neither Drummond or Harrell are great fits for the team’s championship defensive schemes.

The Lakers were fortunate to sign Andre Drummond and hopefully he and the team have agreed upon a role that will bring another championship but Frank Vogel and the coaches will have to figure out how to make it work.