Lakerholics

Man, I can’t believe Giannis could walk without help after that. I couldn’t watch that injury again after seeing it once. ike PG and Hayward injuries. Good luck, Giannis.

Could Playoff Gasol become the surprise X-factor off the bench raining clutch threes and dishing off dimes to lead the Lakers to the championship in this year’s playoffs much like Playoff Rondo did in last year’s playoffs?

After missing the first round of the playoffs last year, Playoff Rondo was the surprise playoff x-factor for the Lakers, averaging 8.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.6 assists in 24.7 minutes per game while shooting 20 of 50 from three. Monday night, we saw a similar performance from Marc Gasol who got a chance to play when Andre Drummond got into foul trouble and posted 10 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists in 17.0 minutes while hitting 3 of 4 from three.

For a Lakers team that was short on trustworthy playmakers and 3-point shooters, Rondo’s playoff performance last year was a big difference maker that made up for the loss of Bradley and helping win the championship. Gasol may be perfectly positioned to do the same thing for the Lakers in the playoffs this year. After being hesitant to shoot earlier, Marc has been extremely aggressive as a shooter and playmaker in his recent outings.

After a mediocre regular season last year when Rondo averaged just 7.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists in 20.5 minutes per game while shooting just 32.8% from three, nobody expected Rondo to be a force in the playoffs. Marc Gasol now finds himself in a similar situation after a disappointing regular season. He’s not only fighting to regain his starting role but also to make sure he beats out Harrell to stay in the Lakers’ playoff rotation.

Before losing his starting role after the Lakers signed Andre Drummond, Gasol had been averaging 4.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.9 assists in 19.5 minutes per game while shooting 34.7% from three on 2.4 threes per game. Since being relegated to coming off the bench, Marc has has upped his averages to 8.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in 17.9 minutes per game while shooting 66.7% from three on 2.6 attempts per game.

Initially upset when he lost his starting role, Gasol has since refocused his game to being more aggressive offensively and his postgame comments to being the ultimate team player he’s always been throughout his long career. While Drummond’s been given more minutes to adjust to his new team and role, Marc Gasol’s enhanced performance and championship pedigree have made a strong case for him to start at center once the playoffs begin.

Regardless of whom Vogel ultimately decides to start at center, Marc Gasol has clearly demonstrated his presence in the Lakers’ playoff rotation is going to be essential, which opens the door for him to replicate Playoff Rondo. Given 20 minutes per game in the playoffs, Marc Gasol could easily match Rondo’s playoff performance by averaging 10.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game while shooting 40% from deep on 3.0 threes per game.

Marc showed in Monday’s win against the Nuggets he can defend Jokic as well as anybody on the Lakers and promises to be the team’s best matchup against Gobert and the Jazz, another likely West playoff opponent. We’ll get a chance on Thursday night to see how Marc matches up with Ivica Zubac and DeMarcus Cousins of the Clippers, likely the third of the Lakers’ three Western Conference playoff opponents along with Denver and Utah.

Should he continue to play as well as he has since Drummond joined the team, Gasol has a great chance to be the x-factor in the Lakers winning this year’s NBA playoffs like Rajon Rondo was in last year’s playoffs.

Crazy as it may seem, there are signs Frank Vogel may actually decide to go with a 12-player rotation for the playoffs that will include four different players getting minutes at the center position depending on matchups.

While most teams narrow their playoff rotations to just 8 or 9 players, the Lakers appear to be poised to do the exact opposite to take advantage of the great depth and versatility of their roster by actively including 12 players. The reasons Vogel might decide to take this approach include wanting to keep everybody on the team engaged and ready to contribute, maintain maximum matchup flexibility, and keep his future rotation options open.

While going with a 12-man rotation may seem extreme, the uncertainty about whom to play is really limited to just the center position, where the recent signing of Andre Drummond has created a severe minutes crunch. Vogel firmly believes the Lakers are going to need Drummond, Harrell, and Gasol well as Anthony Davis at the five during these playoffs. The challenge is fitting four players who averaged 80 minutes per game into 48 minutes.

The solution is likely narrowing the 12-man rotation for each playoff series based on the matchups. While Davis will close games at the five, who plays center for the first three and half quarters will depend on the matchups.

THE CORE 12-MAN ROTATION

Here’s a chart showing the Lakers core 12-man rotation with Gasol starting and Davis closing halves and each of the Lakers’ centers playing 12 minutes per game although the actual minutes distribution would vary each series.

For example, the Lakers best center rotation option to defend against the Nuggets’ stretch fives Jokic and Green is going to be different than the rotation versus the Jazz’s traditional low post centers Gobert and Favors. Frank Vogel might opt to use Drummond’s and Harrell’s mobility to defend the Nuggets’ stretch fives Jokic and Green but play the Lakers’ stretch fives Gasol and Davis to pull the Jazz’s Gobert and Favors out of the paint.

It’s even possible Vogel might opt to play all four centers in the first game of each series to see who matches up best against the opposing team’s centers and then adjusting who plays center the rest of the series on the matchups. This would give each center an opportunity to show the coaching staff he deserved to play the rest of the series. It’s almost the same blueprint Frank used during last year’s playoffs, although with am extremely short leash.

Now that LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both back on the court, the Lakers need to figure out whether Andre Drummond is a good fit alongside LeBron and Ad and whether he can be the starting center in the playoffs.

THE BEST 9-MAN ROTATION

Here’s a chart showing the Lakers core 9-man rotation with Gasol starting and Davis closing halves at center, Drummond covering the remaining minutes, and Horton-Tucker, Morris, and Harrell being out of the rotation.

With the 9-man rotation, the Lakers should still start each half with Marc Gasol and close each half with Anthony Davis at the 5 to stretch defenses, make it harder to double, and open up lanes for LeBron and AD to attack. Drummond is a better center option off the bench than Harrell because he offers more rim protection, scoring, and rebounding though Vogel will likely start Drummond and play Gasol in the middle of the half.

Narrowing the rest of the rotation is fairly easy. Caruso takes over Horton-Tucker’s minutes because his defense and 3-point shooting is better while Kuzma takes over Morris’ minutes because of his versatility and shooting. There could be matchups where Horton-Tucker’s ability to get to the rim and make plays for teammates become more important. There could also be matchups where Morris’ bulk and low post defense trump Kuzma’s skillset.

The above 9-man rotation makes it easy for the Lakers to make adjustments based on specific matchups in each playoff series or on how specific players are performing. The rotation is just a starting template for who plays when.

Right now, Vogel has to stop the incessant experimenting. There is nothing that can be gained from that at this point. The only viable route forward is to decide who’s going to play and then give them the opportunity to develop. Narrowing the rotation down to 9 players would at least provide the Lakers with a needed opportunity to get some game and practice time in and hopefully create some cohesion and chemistry before the playoffs start.

At this point, it doesn’t matter where the Lakers end up as far as seeding goes, even if that means having to win in the Play-In Tournament. All that matters is LeBron and AD being healthy and deciding upon a rotation. Injuries to superstars, questionable personnel moves in the offseason, an ill-advised refusal to trade for Kyle Lowry at the deadline, and coaching indecisiveness have made repeating as champions an improbable long shot.

The best the Lakers can hope for is LeBron James and Anthony Davis getting their games together once we get into the playoffs and a narrowed rotation stepping up and pulling off a miraculous finish to win the championship.

Instead of locking down the 5th seed and fine tuning the small ball lineup with AD at the five that won the championship last year, the Lakers are foolishly chasing a pipe dream Big 3 of James, Davis, and Drummond.

Frankly, the Lakers would be hard pressed to find a poorer option to be the third member of a Big 3 with LeBron James and Anthony Davis than Andre Drummond, a center whose mental and physical tool sets simply don’t fit. That Frank Vogel’s first look at a James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3 ended with a costly and disappointing 110–106 loss at Staples Center to a Kings team with the worst defensive rating in the league was not a big surprise.

Anybody who watched Drummond play in his 11 games with the Lakers before last night could have easily have predicted Andre would post empty stats and fail to generate any winning chemistry with LeBron and Anthony. While Drummond is talented, there’s no chance he‘ll be able to learn how to win in time to help the Lakers repeat as NBA champions after spending 8 years acquiring poor habits and failing to develop his game on losing teams.

Offensively, Drummond is an inefficient low post scorer and poor lob threat whose constant presence in the paint makes it easy for teams to build a wall and prevent James and Davis from penetrating and getting to the rim. Defensively, he’s not the shot blocker or rim protector McGee or Howard were and is vulnerable like them to becoming unplayable in the trapping, switching, rotating defense the Lakers used to win the championship.

While Vogel praised the potential of the James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3, the eye test and analytics painted a different picture: 17 minutes with a subpar 97.3 offensive rating, 105.4 defensive rating, and -8.1 net rating. While Drummond scored 17 points and grabbed 7 rebounds, he ended up with a -3.0 plus/minus for game, including a key stretch late in the fourth quarter where a 3 point Lakers’ lead turned into a critical 2 point deficit.

The danger of the Lakers foolishly chasing a pipe dream Big 3 of James, Davis, and Drummond is they waste valuable time experimenting with a big lineup when they should be honing their small ball lineups for the playoffs. Andre Drummond is not going to replace Anthony Davis as the Lakers’ best center and no big lineup is going to replace the proven small ball lineups with AD at the five that defined the Lakers’ championship run last year.

It was frustrating watching Vogel ignore the great play from Marc Gasol (+12 plus/minus) at center in the first half and then stubbornly only play centers Drummond (-3 plus/minus) and Harrell (-11 plus/minus) in the second half. In the 9 games left, the Lakers need to lock up 5th seed in the West, re-integrate LeBron and AD, and figure out their playoff lineups and rotations. The last thing they should be doing is chasing a pipe dream Big 3 lineup.

The Lakers are likely to get a wake up call when they play the Nuggets and Clippers next week. If there is any hope a James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3 can actually work, Vogel is going to have to see it in those two games. Otherwise, the Lakers will have no option other than to look to reprise their championship run of last season by going small with Anthony Davis starting and closing games at the five and hope they can recapture that magic.

Should the James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3 crash and burn against the Nuggets and Clippers, the Lakers would still have six regular season games to switch to small ball lineups with Davis and Gasol playing as stretch fives. That should still be enough time for Vogel and his staff to re-commit to playing small ball, reexamine their starting and closing lineups, and narrow their rotations from 10–11 to 8–9 players for the upcoming playoffs.

Rooting for anybody on the Lakers to fail has never been an option for me but the best thing for the Lakers vs. the Nuggets and Clippers might be to find chasing a James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3 was a foolish pipe dream.