Lakerholics

Crazy as it may seem, there are signs Frank Vogel may actually decide to go with a 12-player rotation for the playoffs that will include four different players getting minutes at the center position depending on matchups.

While most teams narrow their playoff rotations to just 8 or 9 players, the Lakers appear to be poised to do the exact opposite to take advantage of the great depth and versatility of their roster by actively including 12 players. The reasons Vogel might decide to take this approach include wanting to keep everybody on the team engaged and ready to contribute, maintain maximum matchup flexibility, and keep his future rotation options open.

While going with a 12-man rotation may seem extreme, the uncertainty about whom to play is really limited to just the center position, where the recent signing of Andre Drummond has created a severe minutes crunch. Vogel firmly believes the Lakers are going to need Drummond, Harrell, and Gasol well as Anthony Davis at the five during these playoffs. The challenge is fitting four players who averaged 80 minutes per game into 48 minutes.

The solution is likely narrowing the 12-man rotation for each playoff series based on the matchups. While Davis will close games at the five, who plays center for the first three and half quarters will depend on the matchups.

THE CORE 12-MAN ROTATION

Here’s a chart showing the Lakers core 12-man rotation with Gasol starting and Davis closing halves and each of the Lakers’ centers playing 12 minutes per game although the actual minutes distribution would vary each series.

For example, the Lakers best center rotation option to defend against the Nuggets’ stretch fives Jokic and Green is going to be different than the rotation versus the Jazz’s traditional low post centers Gobert and Favors. Frank Vogel might opt to use Drummond’s and Harrell’s mobility to defend the Nuggets’ stretch fives Jokic and Green but play the Lakers’ stretch fives Gasol and Davis to pull the Jazz’s Gobert and Favors out of the paint.

It’s even possible Vogel might opt to play all four centers in the first game of each series to see who matches up best against the opposing team’s centers and then adjusting who plays center the rest of the series on the matchups. This would give each center an opportunity to show the coaching staff he deserved to play the rest of the series. It’s almost the same blueprint Frank used during last year’s playoffs, although with am extremely short leash.

Now that LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both back on the court, the Lakers need to figure out whether Andre Drummond is a good fit alongside LeBron and Ad and whether he can be the starting center in the playoffs.

THE BEST 9-MAN ROTATION

Here’s a chart showing the Lakers core 9-man rotation with Gasol starting and Davis closing halves at center, Drummond covering the remaining minutes, and Horton-Tucker, Morris, and Harrell being out of the rotation.

With the 9-man rotation, the Lakers should still start each half with Marc Gasol and close each half with Anthony Davis at the 5 to stretch defenses, make it harder to double, and open up lanes for LeBron and AD to attack. Drummond is a better center option off the bench than Harrell because he offers more rim protection, scoring, and rebounding though Vogel will likely start Drummond and play Gasol in the middle of the half.

Narrowing the rest of the rotation is fairly easy. Caruso takes over Horton-Tucker’s minutes because his defense and 3-point shooting is better while Kuzma takes over Morris’ minutes because of his versatility and shooting. There could be matchups where Horton-Tucker’s ability to get to the rim and make plays for teammates become more important. There could also be matchups where Morris’ bulk and low post defense trump Kuzma’s skillset.

The above 9-man rotation makes it easy for the Lakers to make adjustments based on specific matchups in each playoff series or on how specific players are performing. The rotation is just a starting template for who plays when.

Right now, Vogel has to stop the incessant experimenting. There is nothing that can be gained from that at this point. The only viable route forward is to decide who’s going to play and then give them the opportunity to develop. Narrowing the rotation down to 9 players would at least provide the Lakers with a needed opportunity to get some game and practice time in and hopefully create some cohesion and chemistry before the playoffs start.

At this point, it doesn’t matter where the Lakers end up as far as seeding goes, even if that means having to win in the Play-In Tournament. All that matters is LeBron and AD being healthy and deciding upon a rotation. Injuries to superstars, questionable personnel moves in the offseason, an ill-advised refusal to trade for Kyle Lowry at the deadline, and coaching indecisiveness have made repeating as champions an improbable long shot.

The best the Lakers can hope for is LeBron James and Anthony Davis getting their games together once we get into the playoffs and a narrowed rotation stepping up and pulling off a miraculous finish to win the championship.

Instead of locking down the 5th seed and fine tuning the small ball lineup with AD at the five that won the championship last year, the Lakers are foolishly chasing a pipe dream Big 3 of James, Davis, and Drummond.

Frankly, the Lakers would be hard pressed to find a poorer option to be the third member of a Big 3 with LeBron James and Anthony Davis than Andre Drummond, a center whose mental and physical tool sets simply don’t fit. That Frank Vogel’s first look at a James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3 ended with a costly and disappointing 110–106 loss at Staples Center to a Kings team with the worst defensive rating in the league was not a big surprise.

Anybody who watched Drummond play in his 11 games with the Lakers before last night could have easily have predicted Andre would post empty stats and fail to generate any winning chemistry with LeBron and Anthony. While Drummond is talented, there’s no chance he‘ll be able to learn how to win in time to help the Lakers repeat as NBA champions after spending 8 years acquiring poor habits and failing to develop his game on losing teams.

Offensively, Drummond is an inefficient low post scorer and poor lob threat whose constant presence in the paint makes it easy for teams to build a wall and prevent James and Davis from penetrating and getting to the rim. Defensively, he’s not the shot blocker or rim protector McGee or Howard were and is vulnerable like them to becoming unplayable in the trapping, switching, rotating defense the Lakers used to win the championship.

While Vogel praised the potential of the James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3, the eye test and analytics painted a different picture: 17 minutes with a subpar 97.3 offensive rating, 105.4 defensive rating, and -8.1 net rating. While Drummond scored 17 points and grabbed 7 rebounds, he ended up with a -3.0 plus/minus for game, including a key stretch late in the fourth quarter where a 3 point Lakers’ lead turned into a critical 2 point deficit.

The danger of the Lakers foolishly chasing a pipe dream Big 3 of James, Davis, and Drummond is they waste valuable time experimenting with a big lineup when they should be honing their small ball lineups for the playoffs. Andre Drummond is not going to replace Anthony Davis as the Lakers’ best center and no big lineup is going to replace the proven small ball lineups with AD at the five that defined the Lakers’ championship run last year.

It was frustrating watching Vogel ignore the great play from Marc Gasol (+12 plus/minus) at center in the first half and then stubbornly only play centers Drummond (-3 plus/minus) and Harrell (-11 plus/minus) in the second half. In the 9 games left, the Lakers need to lock up 5th seed in the West, re-integrate LeBron and AD, and figure out their playoff lineups and rotations. The last thing they should be doing is chasing a pipe dream Big 3 lineup.

The Lakers are likely to get a wake up call when they play the Nuggets and Clippers next week. If there is any hope a James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3 can actually work, Vogel is going to have to see it in those two games. Otherwise, the Lakers will have no option other than to look to reprise their championship run of last season by going small with Anthony Davis starting and closing games at the five and hope they can recapture that magic.

Should the James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3 crash and burn against the Nuggets and Clippers, the Lakers would still have six regular season games to switch to small ball lineups with Davis and Gasol playing as stretch fives. That should still be enough time for Vogel and his staff to re-commit to playing small ball, reexamine their starting and closing lineups, and narrow their rotations from 10–11 to 8–9 players for the upcoming playoffs.

Rooting for anybody on the Lakers to fail has never been an option for me but the best thing for the Lakers vs. the Nuggets and Clippers might be to find chasing a James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3 was a foolish pipe dream.

Is there anybody out there who still believes the Los Angeles Lakers are going to repeat as NBA champions this season with Andre Drummond, Marc Gasol, or Montrezl Harrell starting and closing games at center?

The bad news is the grand plan to upgrade the center position so Anthony Davis could play his preferred power forward position full time has been a failure and should force the Lakers to rethink their playoff plans at center. The good news is the Lakers still have the best two-way center in the NBA in 28-year old 6′ 10,” 253 lb Anthony Davis who can dominate offensively and defensively in the paint, from midrange, or beyond the 3-point line.

It’s time for the Lakers to admit they need Anthony Davis to repeat his role from last year’s playoffs and devote half of his 36 minutes per game playing center rather than relying on Drummond, Gasol, and Harrell to play the five. The plan could have worked if the Lakers had traded for an elite center like Myles Turner, Chris Boucher, or Christian Wood last offseason but not with Rent-a-Centers like Andre Drummond, Marc Gasol, or Montrezl Harrell.

Sticking with the Drummond and Harrell center rotation in the playoffs would be a mistake. Both pack the paint and make it difficult for LeBron and AD to get to the rim. Both are subpar shot blockers and poor rim protectors. Frank Vogel needs to realize starting Andre Drummond vs. the Nugget’s Nikola Jokic in the first round or the Jazz’ Rudy Gobert in the second round of the playoffs would be playing right into the Denver’s and Utah’s hands.

Anthony Davis is the only center the Lakers have who can match up with Nikola Jokic and play Rudy Gobert off the court by pulling him out of the paint. The Lakers should start and finish playoff games with AD at center. The Lakers are better at both ends with Anthony Davis at the five as they proved in last year’s playoffs with their 5-out sets opening up the floor on offense and their trapping and rotating defense suffocating offenses.

Frank Vogel and the Lakers know the recipe for the Lakers winning in the playoffs is starting and closing with Anthony Davis at center. Like last year, the Lakers need to plan on AD playing at least half of his minutes at the five. Assuming he plays 36 minutes per game like last playoffs, Davis could play center 18 minutes per game or the first and last 4 to 5 minutes of each half, leaving the remaining 30 minutes to be split between the other centers.

Starting and closing games with a ‘small ball’ lineup of Davis, Morris, James, Caldwell-Pope, and Schroder allows the Lakers to create space by spreading the floor on offense and trap, switch and rotate on defense like last year. One of the problems with the 3-headed center the Lakers used this season to limit Davis from having to play big minutes at the five is he’s only played 7 minutes per game at center, which could hurt us in the playoffs.

While it’s easy to understand why the Lakers would like to minimize AD’s minutes at the five, Vogel also needs to realize that Drummond, Gasol, and Harrell are not going to be favorable match ups in the playoffs this year. Davis had no problem playing half his minutes at center last playoffs. He should be well rested and ready to do the same in this year. It would be a huge mistake for the Lakers to try to rely on anybody but Davis at center.

Heading into the playoffs, the Lakers need to start and close halves and games with their best center. If AD plays 18 of his 36 minutes per game at center, there would still be 30 minutes for Drummond, Gasol, and Harrell. The Lakers should spend valuable minutes these last 11 games playing small ball lineups with Davis at the five and Morris or even James at the four to get ready for the playoffs rather than devoting that time to the Rent-a-Centers.

While I expect Vogel to continue to try and start games with Drummond and to play all three centers in the playoffs, I expect to see a repeat of last year’s playoffs when McGee and Harrell became unplayable and were benched. Hopefully, Frank will be as decisive and proactive as he was in last year’s playoffs and he’ll make similar moves for Anthony Davis to take over the center position both as the starter and closer once we’re in the playoffs.

The path to this year’s NBA championship is going to be one of the toughest in years and the Lakers will need to be better than last year to repeat. The only way they can do that is to prioritize Anthony Davis at the five.

Anthony Davis’ desire to play power forward instead of center is the only thing that could prevent him from joining Shaquille O’Neal, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Wilt Chamberlain and becoming the next great Lakers’ center.

Anthony Davis is a enigma in that he’s a basketball player who does not want to play center, the position at which he’s arguably the best at in the world. He believes playing power forward is better for his game and career. The truth is center is Davis’ best position and more that he plays center, the better the Lakers become as a team. AD always said he would play center when needed and did so for 50% of his minutes in last year’s playoffs.

Since signing Davis, the Lakers have worked hard to accommodate their superstar’s preference not to play the five. They’ve tweaked their roster so he’s only had to play center 7% of the time this season versus 25% last year. The Lakers also signed 27-year old center Andre Drummond from the buyout market to play big minutes in these playoffs and protect Davis from having to spend half his time at center like he did in the playoffs last year.

Coming off a calf injury that cost 2 months and 30 games, Davis and the Lakers will both be looking for ways to continue limiting his minutes at center in the playoffs, though that might not be the smartest thing to do.

THE MODERN PROTOTYPE CENTER

Anthony Davis is the prototype modern NBA center, a gifted physical big with the skills and tool set of a guard. He’s a superstar who can score and defend buckets at all three levels: at the rim, from midrange, or from three

A modern center trapped in a world where positionless basketball has made traditional low post centers obsolete, Anthony Davis’ unprecedented skillset on offense and defense have freed him up to redefine what centers can do. Not limited to scoring and defending in the paint, Anthony’s range enables him to extend his skill set to the full court, making and blocking shots at the rim or taking and challenging jumpers from midrange and three.

While Davis is the ultimate unicorn in game of basketball, his preference to play power forward rather than deal with the physicality and banging of playing center full time has dominated the Lakers’ roster building efforts. From last year’s tandem of JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard to this year’s hybrid duo of Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell and recent signing of Andre Drummond, the Lakers have struggled to find a center to pair with Davis.

Rather than trying to accommodate his preference to play power forward, maybe the Lakers should focus on figuring out how to optimize Anthony Davis superstar potential by empowering him to play center all of the time.

EMPOWERING DAVIS TO PLAY CENTER

Is Davis not wanting to play center blasphemous or simply recognition centers in the modern NBA have evolved into a multi-positional players who have to be versatile enough to able to play and defend the four and the five?

Let’s be honest. It’s not that Anthony Davis doesn’t want to play the five. He just doesn’t want to be tied down to playing ‘old school,’ low post basketball where he doesn’t have freedom to utilize his full skill set as a modern center. He just doesn’t want to have to bang in the paint and defend bigger physical centers, which is something the Lakers could address like they did in the playoffs last year when Davis played the five and Markieff Morris the four.

If center is Davis’ best position and the Lakers are at their best when he plays center, shouldn’t the priority then be to figure out how to make that work rather than futilely chasing different options to replace him at center? Traditional centers who clog the paint on offense and lack the mobility to switch and rotate on defense are not the answer as the Lakers found with McGee and Howard last year and Drummond, Gasol, and Harrell this year.

The Lakers’ goal should be to free Anthony Davis to play the five. The only ways to unleash his potential is to go small and pair him with a stretch 4 power forward who can defend like Markieff Morris or even LeBron James.

AD MUST PLAY CENTER IN PLAYOFFS

Regardless of the addition of Andre Drummond and the desire to limit AD’s minutes at the five, the Lakers are going to need Anthony Davis to play the center close to half of the time if they hope to repeat as NBA champions.

The Lakers’ likely playoff opponents are the Denver Nuggets, Utah Jazz, LA Clippers, and Brooklyn Nets, which means Anthony Davis’ likely center opponents are Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Ivica Zubac, and Blake Griffin. None of these are centers whose physicality and banging in the post should deter Anthony Davis from defending them and all of them are centers who’ll struggle mightily to defend Davis outside of the paint or from deep.

Anthony Davis and the Lakers need to realize that limiting the minutes that he plays center is the last thing they should be doing in the playoffs. They need to be strategizing how to get Davis more minutes at center not less. Playing Davis at the four with Drummond, Gasol, or Harrell at the five only weakens the Lakers defensively as none of their three centers are elite rim protectors and Drummond and Harrell lack the ability to space the floor.

Going big doesn’t work when none of your bigs can protect the rim or rotate quickly enough to play the aggressive defense Vogel prefers. The Lakers need to change gears and look to go small in the playoffs with AD at the five.

The Lakers efforts to accommodate Anthony Davis’ desire to play the four are threatening to undermine the Los Angeles Lakers’ chances to repeat as NBA champions because none of the centers on the roster complement AD.

If the Lakers are going to win the championship, they need to abandon the mistaken idea that Andre Drummond, Marc Gasol, or Montrezl Harrell will be capable of giving them what they need from the center position to win. Anybody watching this team can tell you right now that Drummond, Gasol, and Harrell don’t have the defensive mind set or skill sets the Lakers need. Anthony Davis is going to have to play center if the Lakers want to win.

While Anthony Davis may not want to play big minutes at center, the Lakers are going to need him to do that in the playoffs this year just like last year. The sooner they realize this and make the needed adjustments, the better. Should that mean that the Lakers go small with Davis at the five and James, Morris, and/or Kuzma at the four, then so be it. The Lakers are not going to win the championship with Drummond, Gasol, or Harrell at the five.

Anthony Davis playing center is the key to the Lakers winning their 18th NBA championship and Davis joining Shaquille O’Neal, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Wilt Chamberlain and becoming the next great Lakers’ center.