Lakerholics

To say the Los Angeles Lakers have had a tough season is a understatement. The short offseason, compressed schedule, and major injuries to superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis and key role players have taken their toll.

Barring the Lakers winning their remaining two games and the Blazers losing their last game against the Nuggets on Sunday, the defending NBA champion Lakers will end the 2021 regular season in 7th place in the West. The NBA introduced a Play-In Tournament this season to determine the 7th and 8th seeds. The winner of the 7th vs. 8th place teams wins 7th seed while the loser plays the winner of 9th vs. 10th place teams for 8th seed.

The playoff path for the 7th seed Lakers to repeat as NBA champions this year is a gauntlet filled with major obstacles and road blocks. In fact, no team below 5th seed has ever won the championship in NBA playoff history. Despite all the injuries and losing 17 of the 29 games since LeBron James was injured in March, the Lakers are suddenly getting healthy and showing promising signs they may be capable of defending their championship.

The most promising signs have been the recent championship caliber play by LeBron’s supporting cast, including Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kyle Kuzma, Alex Caruso, and Wesley Matthews. While championships in the NBA are won by superstars, basketball is still a team game and it’s often role players performing like stars in their roles that ultimately determines which team ends up winning the NBA championship.

So let’s look at the key members of LeBron James’ supporting cast who have performed like stars in their roles over the Lakers’ last few games and what their roles might be in these playoffs helping win the championship.

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THE RETURN OF PLAYOFF ANTHONY DAVIS

Considering we don’t know for sure whether LeBron’s high ankle sprain has completely healed or not until he hits the court, Anthony Davis playing at the elite level of last year’s playoffs is the key to a Lakers’ championship.

In the last three games he’s played, Davis has averaged 32.7 points, 10.0 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.3 blocks in 41.1 minutes per game, while shooting 45.2% from the field, 33.3% from three, and 78.4% from the line. Those stats compare favorably to last year’s playoff stats: 27.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.4 blocks in 46.6 minutes per game, while shooting 57.1% from the field, 38.3% from three, and 83.2% from the line.

Watching Anthony Davis finally shoot and defend at the same elite level he did during last year’s playoffs gives Lakers fans legitimate hope the purple and gold can still rally and run the gauntlet to repeat as NBA champions.

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THE EMERGENCE OF ANDRE DRUMMOND

Signed as a free agent from the buyout market, Andre Drummond has struggled at times to find his role and comfort zone playing with the Lakers during the 19 games he’s played with LA with LeBron and AD injured.

With the return of Anthony Davis, Andre has finally started to figure things out, averaging 18.0 points, 14 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.5 blocks in 28.6 minutes per game, shooting 62.5% from the field and 50.0% from the line. That is a dramatic improvement over his first 17 games when he averaged just 11.2 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 0.8 blocks in 24.3 minutes per game while shooting 52.0% from the field and 64.3% from the line.

The important of Drummond finally posting double-doubles like the 17.5 points and 13.5 rebounds per game he averaged for the Cavs this season cannot be overstated. The Lakers suddenly have a playoff starting center.

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THE STAR POWER OF TALEN HORTON-TUCKER

After refusing to include Talen Horton-Tucker in a trade for Kyle Lowry, the Lakers finally started to see rewards for their faith in their 20-year old young star as THT has now elevated his play to include late game heroics.

His dramatic rebound and put back after a wild layup miss sealed the Lakers’ clutch win over the Nuggets and his 3-point dagger from the wing over childhood hero Derrick Rose clinched the Lakers’ win over the Knicks. With LeBron James, Dennis Schroder, and Alex Caruso out the last two games, THT has taken over the point and averaged aa 18-point, 10-assists double-double leading the Lakers to big wins over the Suns and Rockets.

With a 12-man rotation heading into the playoffs, Lakers head coach Frank Vogel is going to be challenged to find playing time for many of the role players on his bench but THT has shown he has to be part of that rotation.

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MORE CONSISTENCY FROM KYLE KUZMA

More than any other role player on the Lakers, Kyle Kuzma is the team’s jack of all trades with his scoring, rebounding, playmaking, and defense, all of which at times leads to his posting inconsistent stats from game to game.

During his last 2 games, Kuzma has focused primarily on scoring with both James and Davis out, racking up games of 23 and 19 points in wins over the Knicks and Rockets, including a clutch game winning layup over Houston. Kyle averaged a team best 21.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.0 steal, and 0.5 blocks in 32.4 minutes per game over the last 2 games while shooting 58.6% from the field, 45.5% from three, and 50.0% from the line.

Kuzma will be one of the first players off the bench for Frank Vogel in the playoffs and will hopefully continue to provide the Lakers with more consistency from his shooting, rebounding, assisting, and defending.

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MORE SCORING PUNCH FROM ALEX CARUSO

Alex Caruso is another Lakers player who’s benefited from having more playing time and responsibility with LeBron James and Anthony Davis out with injuries. Lately, Alex has responded with aggression on offense.

Before reinjuring himself 7 minutes into the last game, Caruso posted back-to-back games where he scored 17 and 18 points in games with Phoenix and Portland, by far his two biggest scoring games in the regular season. Over that 2-game stretch without LeBron and AD, Caruso averaged 17.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.5 steals in 33.5 minutes per game, while shooting 51.9% from the field, 60% from three, and 50.0% from the line.

While Alex is not a natural scorer, his looking more for his shot has to be another positive to add to his defense first resume. Caruso’s renewed aggressiveness is great news for an offensively challenged Lakers team.

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VETERAN CLUTCH PLAY FROM WES MATTHEWS

Relegated to the bench a few weeks back when Frank Vogel tried to narrow his rotation, Wes Matthews displayed his savvy by staying ready and when given his chance showed he was still an elite defender and clutch player.

Wes’ clutch rebound and put back as time ran out enabled the Lakers to tie the Knicks and eventually win the game in overtime and his clutch steal sealed the team’s comeback win over the Rockets without Davis and James. Over the Lakers’ last five games, Matthews has averaged 6.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks in 25.0 minutes per game while shooting 40.0% from the field, 38.1% from three, and 66.7% from the line.

The key for Matthews has been his defense, especially against bigger guards and wings. Over the last 5 games, Wes’ 105.6 defensive rating has been the 4th best on the team, often against the opposing team’s best scorers.

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Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kyle Kuzma, Alex Caruso, and Wesley Matthews have all been stars in their role as the Lakers have regrouped and learned to win without superstar LeBron James.

With just 2 games left in the regular season, the Lakers are now looking like the juggernaut the rest of the league expected before AD and LeBron fell to injury and the likely 7th seed nobody in the NBA wants to meet in playoffs. The silver lining to playing without Davis for 30+ games and without James for 20+ games is many of the Lakers role players have been able to learn how to make clutch plays and win games without their superstars.

Heading into the playoffs, having role players capable of being stars in their roles may be exactly what the Lakers need to make the long and improbable journey from Play-In Tournament and 7th seed to NBA champions.

There was a feeling heading into last year’s playoffs Anthony Davis might be ready to take the baton from an aging LeBron James as Los Angeles Lakers’ best player and team leader. After last night’s big game, that feeling is back.

No disrespect to LeBron James and what he’s accomplished throughout his illustrious career, but there’s a point when the Lakers’ championship hopes need to focus on their 28-year old rather than their 36-year old superstar. Maybe James will win another dramatic injury and performance battle with Father Time to lead the Lakers to his 5th and the team’s 18th championship but having Anthony Davis back playing like a Finals MVP is great news.

LeBron James won Finals MVP last season averaging 29.8 points, 11.8 boards, 8.5 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks in 39.4 minutes per game while shooting 59.1% from the field, 41.7% from three, and 66.7% from the line. That overshadowed a great Finals by Davis, who averaged 25.0 points, 10.7 boards, 3.2 assists, 1.3 steals, 2.0 blocks in 38.2 minutes per game while shooting 57.1% from the field, 42.1% from three, and 93.8% from the line.

Last night, Davis gave us a preview of what to expect from him in this year’s playoffs, posting 42 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks while shooting 48.1% from the field, 20.0% from three, and 88.2% from the line. Over the last 2 games without LeBron James, Anthony Davis has averaged 39.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.5 steals, and 2.0 blocks while shooting 50.0 from the field, 37.5% from three, and 78.1% from the line.

Those are Finals MVP caliber stats from Anthony Davis, numbers we frankly have not seen at all this regular season. They’re not only a testament AD is 100% healthy but also may finally be ready to take that baton from LeBron. For Lakers fans who’ve seen their championship aspirations fall as the team fell all the way to 7th seed forcing participation in the league’s new Play-In Tournament, that is the best news they could possibly hear at this point.

In a Covid-crippled, injury riddled, schedule compressed season, the Lakers have already been written off by most pundits as they’ve plummeted in the Western Conference standings and the top power rankings for the league. Laker haters are ecstatic over the prospect of LA having to play Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors and then possibly the Memphis Grizzlies or San Antonio Spurs just to make the cut to get into the NBA playoffs.

The last thing the angry haters and hungry competitors want to see is a healthy Anthony Davis motivated to prove to everybody he is ready to take the baton from LeBron James as the LA Lakers’ best player and team leader. Hobbled by the lingering injuries from the bubble, Davis has struggled with his shooting and defense most of this season before sitting out 30 games to get his calf and Achilles 100% healed. Hearing he’s back is going to be scary.

Couple Anthony Davis’ great play the last few games with the encouraging news LeBron James also appears to be 100% healthy and will be returning either tomorrow against the Knicks on Wednesday against the Rockets. Suddenly, the Lakers no longer look like a team in the midst of an injury crisis with their two Superstars. Now the rest of the NBA needs to face the reality the Lakers are their biggest hurdle to winning the championship.

The possibility Anthony Davis could elevate his game to another level and become the Los Angeles Lakers’ best player and team leader and steal the Finals MVP award from LeBron James is something that’s going to happen. While it looked like that was a long shot for this year as both Anthony and LeBron suffered major injuries, the situation has dramatically changed. The Lakers are suddenly back in the hunt for their 18th NBA championship.

Everything is about timing and there could be no better time for Anthony Davis to take the baton from LeBron James and become the Los Angeles Lakers’ best player, team leader, and Finals MVP than this year’s playoffs.

Man, I can’t believe Giannis could walk without help after that. I couldn’t watch that injury again after seeing it once. ike PG and Hayward injuries. Good luck, Giannis.

Could Playoff Gasol become the surprise X-factor off the bench raining clutch threes and dishing off dimes to lead the Lakers to the championship in this year’s playoffs much like Playoff Rondo did in last year’s playoffs?

After missing the first round of the playoffs last year, Playoff Rondo was the surprise playoff x-factor for the Lakers, averaging 8.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.6 assists in 24.7 minutes per game while shooting 20 of 50 from three. Monday night, we saw a similar performance from Marc Gasol who got a chance to play when Andre Drummond got into foul trouble and posted 10 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists in 17.0 minutes while hitting 3 of 4 from three.

For a Lakers team that was short on trustworthy playmakers and 3-point shooters, Rondo’s playoff performance last year was a big difference maker that made up for the loss of Bradley and helping win the championship. Gasol may be perfectly positioned to do the same thing for the Lakers in the playoffs this year. After being hesitant to shoot earlier, Marc has been extremely aggressive as a shooter and playmaker in his recent outings.

After a mediocre regular season last year when Rondo averaged just 7.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists in 20.5 minutes per game while shooting just 32.8% from three, nobody expected Rondo to be a force in the playoffs. Marc Gasol now finds himself in a similar situation after a disappointing regular season. He’s not only fighting to regain his starting role but also to make sure he beats out Harrell to stay in the Lakers’ playoff rotation.

Before losing his starting role after the Lakers signed Andre Drummond, Gasol had been averaging 4.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.9 assists in 19.5 minutes per game while shooting 34.7% from three on 2.4 threes per game. Since being relegated to coming off the bench, Marc has has upped his averages to 8.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in 17.9 minutes per game while shooting 66.7% from three on 2.6 attempts per game.

Initially upset when he lost his starting role, Gasol has since refocused his game to being more aggressive offensively and his postgame comments to being the ultimate team player he’s always been throughout his long career. While Drummond’s been given more minutes to adjust to his new team and role, Marc Gasol’s enhanced performance and championship pedigree have made a strong case for him to start at center once the playoffs begin.

Regardless of whom Vogel ultimately decides to start at center, Marc Gasol has clearly demonstrated his presence in the Lakers’ playoff rotation is going to be essential, which opens the door for him to replicate Playoff Rondo. Given 20 minutes per game in the playoffs, Marc Gasol could easily match Rondo’s playoff performance by averaging 10.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game while shooting 40% from deep on 3.0 threes per game.

Marc showed in Monday’s win against the Nuggets he can defend Jokic as well as anybody on the Lakers and promises to be the team’s best matchup against Gobert and the Jazz, another likely West playoff opponent. We’ll get a chance on Thursday night to see how Marc matches up with Ivica Zubac and DeMarcus Cousins of the Clippers, likely the third of the Lakers’ three Western Conference playoff opponents along with Denver and Utah.

Should he continue to play as well as he has since Drummond joined the team, Gasol has a great chance to be the x-factor in the Lakers winning this year’s NBA playoffs like Rajon Rondo was in last year’s playoffs.

Crazy as it may seem, there are signs Frank Vogel may actually decide to go with a 12-player rotation for the playoffs that will include four different players getting minutes at the center position depending on matchups.

While most teams narrow their playoff rotations to just 8 or 9 players, the Lakers appear to be poised to do the exact opposite to take advantage of the great depth and versatility of their roster by actively including 12 players. The reasons Vogel might decide to take this approach include wanting to keep everybody on the team engaged and ready to contribute, maintain maximum matchup flexibility, and keep his future rotation options open.

While going with a 12-man rotation may seem extreme, the uncertainty about whom to play is really limited to just the center position, where the recent signing of Andre Drummond has created a severe minutes crunch. Vogel firmly believes the Lakers are going to need Drummond, Harrell, and Gasol well as Anthony Davis at the five during these playoffs. The challenge is fitting four players who averaged 80 minutes per game into 48 minutes.

The solution is likely narrowing the 12-man rotation for each playoff series based on the matchups. While Davis will close games at the five, who plays center for the first three and half quarters will depend on the matchups.

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THE CORE 12-MAN ROTATION

Here’s a chart showing the Lakers core 12-man rotation with Gasol starting and Davis closing halves and each of the Lakers’ centers playing 12 minutes per game although the actual minutes distribution would vary each series.

For example, the Lakers best center rotation option to defend against the Nuggets’ stretch fives Jokic and Green is going to be different than the rotation versus the Jazz’s traditional low post centers Gobert and Favors. Frank Vogel might opt to use Drummond’s and Harrell’s mobility to defend the Nuggets’ stretch fives Jokic and Green but play the Lakers’ stretch fives Gasol and Davis to pull the Jazz’s Gobert and Favors out of the paint.

It’s even possible Vogel might opt to play all four centers in the first game of each series to see who matches up best against the opposing team’s centers and then adjusting who plays center the rest of the series on the matchups. This would give each center an opportunity to show the coaching staff he deserved to play the rest of the series. It’s almost the same blueprint Frank used during last year’s playoffs, although with am extremely short leash.

Now that LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both back on the court, the Lakers need to figure out whether Andre Drummond is a good fit alongside LeBron and Ad and whether he can be the starting center in the playoffs.

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THE BEST 9-MAN ROTATION

Here’s a chart showing the Lakers core 9-man rotation with Gasol starting and Davis closing halves at center, Drummond covering the remaining minutes, and Horton-Tucker, Morris, and Harrell being out of the rotation.

With the 9-man rotation, the Lakers should still start each half with Marc Gasol and close each half with Anthony Davis at the 5 to stretch defenses, make it harder to double, and open up lanes for LeBron and AD to attack. Drummond is a better center option off the bench than Harrell because he offers more rim protection, scoring, and rebounding though Vogel will likely start Drummond and play Gasol in the middle of the half.

Narrowing the rest of the rotation is fairly easy. Caruso takes over Horton-Tucker’s minutes because his defense and 3-point shooting is better while Kuzma takes over Morris’ minutes because of his versatility and shooting. There could be matchups where Horton-Tucker’s ability to get to the rim and make plays for teammates become more important. There could also be matchups where Morris’ bulk and low post defense trump Kuzma’s skillset.

The above 9-man rotation makes it easy for the Lakers to make adjustments based on specific matchups in each playoff series or on how specific players are performing. The rotation is just a starting template for who plays when.

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Right now, Vogel has to stop the incessant experimenting. There is nothing that can be gained from that at this point. The only viable route forward is to decide who’s going to play and then give them the opportunity to develop. Narrowing the rotation down to 9 players would at least provide the Lakers with a needed opportunity to get some game and practice time in and hopefully create some cohesion and chemistry before the playoffs start.

At this point, it doesn’t matter where the Lakers end up as far as seeding goes, even if that means having to win in the Play-In Tournament. All that matters is LeBron and AD being healthy and deciding upon a rotation. Injuries to superstars, questionable personnel moves in the offseason, an ill-advised refusal to trade for Kyle Lowry at the deadline, and coaching indecisiveness have made repeating as champions an improbable long shot.

The best the Lakers can hope for is LeBron James and Anthony Davis getting their games together once we get into the playoffs and a narrowed rotation stepping up and pulling off a miraculous finish to win the championship.