Lakerholics

Anthony Davis’ injury killed the dream but five major mistakes revamping the roster around LeBron James and Anthony Davis will be real reasons the Los Angeles Lakers’ quest to repeat as NBA champions will ultimately fail.

It’s easy to look in the rear view mirror and see what went wrong but in retrospect the Lakers not only ignored flashing red warning signs all season long but also doubled down on two late season major personnel mistakes. They traded for the wrong point guard, signed centers who were poor fits, failed to draft or trade for a volume 3-point shooter, declined to trade for All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry, and signed center Andre Drummond.

Besides dooming their chances of repeating as champs, these five major mistakes may also have derailed the Lakers’ opportunity to fix the problems this summer as the threat of free agency losses and luxury taxes loom.

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1. Trading for point guard Dennis Schroder.

The Lakers first mistake was trading Danny Green and their first round pick for point guard Dennis Schroder. The Lakers hoped Schroder could be their point guard of the future and help LeBron James with playmaking duties.

Aside from the fact that Schroder turns the ball over too much, only shoots 33.3% from three, and has a barely acceptable 2.1 assists-to-turnovers ratio, Dennis wants more money and a bigger role than the Lakers have to offer. Since Schroder’s an unrestricted free agent, the Lakers will have to either dramatically overpay him to convince him to stay or pull off some form of a miracle sign-and-trade to prevent losing him for nothing to another team.

The ultimate irony of the trade is Danny Green had a great season with the Sixers and shot over 40% on 6.3 threes per game while Schroder reverted to being a below average 3-point shooter and inefficient starting point guard.

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2. Signing centers Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell.

The second big mistake the Lakers made was not trading for a modern center like Myles Turner who could protect the rim on defense and stretch defenses on offense rather than signing rent-a-centers Harrell and Gasol.

Trading defense for offense is essentially what the Lakers did when replacing McGee and Howard with Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell, but the moves left the team defensively challenged without rim protection. The result was a poor fitting Lakers center tandem that featured an over-the-hill stretch five in Gasol who could no longer jump or dunk and an undersized small ball, low post center in Harrell who could not defend.

With Davis relegated to playing the five less than 10% of the time compared to over 25% of the time last season, the Lakers production from the center position, especially when it came to rim protection, took a big step back.

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3. Failing to draft, sign, or trade for 3-point shooters.

For whatever reason, the Los Angeles Lakers continue to ignore the longtime acknowledged formula for winning with LeBron James, which is to surround him with elite high volume, high percentage 3-point shooters.

Last year, the Lakers ranked 23rd with 11.0 made threes on 30.6 shots per game for 34.9% vs. league average of 34.1%. This year they ranked 25th with 11.1 made threes on 31.2 shots for 35.4% vs. league average of 34.6%. The Lakers’ 3-point shooting has taken a major step backward in the playoffs as they rank second worst in the league with just 9.3 made threes on 31.8 shots per game for 29.1%, a fatal drop from last year’s 35.4% in the playoffs.

The Lakers continued rejection of the importance of high volume, high percentage 3-point shooting and abject failure to fix the problem when building this year’s rosters is one of the team’s biggest mistakes.

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4. Declining to trade for point guard Kyle Lowry

The biggest major mistake was failing to add a third superstar so they could not only weather the injuries to LeBron James and Anthony Davis but also have enough firepower to match the Brooklyn Nets in the NBA Finals.

That’s the decision that left the Lakers without the star depth to survive the injuries to LeBron and AD and left them vulnerable to what’s looking more and more like a possible first round flame out to the upstart Phoenix Suns. We saw how important a third superstar was for the Brooklyn Nets whose superstar Big Three with Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving allowed them to overcome significant injuries to all three superstars.

The Lakers blew an opportunity at the trade deadline to land veteran point guard Kyle Lowry, who would have given the Lakers a third superstar and allowed the team to weather the current injuries to LeBron and AD.

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5. Signing free agent center Andre Drummond

After declining to trade for Kyle Lowry and failing to make any moves at the trade deadline, the Lakers made their fifth and final fatal mistake by signing the enigma center Andre Drummond from the buyout market.

A seriously talented but flawed 27-year old center who had never played for a winning team, Drummond proved to be the Laker final fatal roster mistake, throwing the team’s center rotation and team chemistry into total turmoil. Worse, the addition of a third center left Frank Vogel without enough time to integrate Drummond into the Lakers style of play, especially defensively, with the result that signing Andre was subtraction by addition.

The result was lineup and rotation chaos as the Lakers tried to integrate Drummond while re-integrating James and Davis returning from injury as the team prepared to defend their championship in the playoffs.

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While these roster mistakes will likely cost the Lakers the chance to repeat as NBA champions, the bigger issue is how the mistakes have acerbated the challenge the Lakers will face this summer to repair the damage.

The Lakers have a serious cap space issues next season. They are likely to lose Andre Drummond, Montrezl Harrell, and Dennis Schroder to free agency and could even lose fan faves Alex Caruso and Talen Horton-Tucker. They will also only have the $5 million taxpayer MLE to use to pursue free agents and, should they lose to the Suns in the first round, could turnover the entire roster except for superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

The Lakers are just one game away from facing their first elimination playoff game in the last two years. Suddenly, they’re facing a first round flame out that will be more embarrassing than the Clippers departure last year.

What’s the story behind the Los Angeles Lakers’ fascination with Andre Drummond ? Do Pelinka and Vogel really believe Drummond at center is the best strategy to take advantage of LeBron James and Anthony Davis?

The Andre Drummond experiment up to this point has been a bust as every key stat clearly demonstrate the Lakers are a better team on offense and defense with Marc Gasol or Anthony Davis at center than the Big Penguin. Frank Vogel continues to ignore the stats that say Davis and James play, shoot, and defend better without Drummond and claims Andre just needs more minutes to learn how to play alongside the Lakers’ superstars.

You can almost see the wheels working in the background as Pelinka and Vogel continue to believe Drummond not only could help the Lakers win the championship this year but might also re-sign with the team long term. Their obsession with a possible James, Davis, and Drummond Big Three has apparently blinded them to Andre’s poor footwork, subpar court presence, low post inefficiency, and inescapable poor fit next to LeBron and AD.

Meanwhile, Frank Vogel has become increasingly defensive about Andre Drummond’s performance, pointing out Andre has not had the benefit of camp and the regular season to develop chemistry for the scheme to work. That’s an argument better made during the regular season than the start of the first round of the playoffs while the Lakers try to re-integrate superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis back from long injuries into the rotation.

What drives me crazy is Vogel not realizing traditional centers change how the Lakers play offense and defense. Andre’s lack of offensive spacing and lack of defensive mobility limits the team’s play at both ends of the court. The Lakers established a gold standard of what to expect during last year’s successful championship run with Anthony Davis playing more than 50% of his time at the five. That’s a proven winning formula you can’t discard.

So what’s really going on here? Do the Lakers really believe Drummond at the five is a championship scheme? Did Andre receive a promise he would be the starter in the playoffs when he signed his free agent contract? Alternatively, have the Lakers decided to dramatically reduce Anthony’s minutes at the five to accommodate his preference for playing power forward? That’s a move they clearly made during the regular season.

Or is the obsession with Drummond just an example of an old school coach like Frank Vogel stubbornly refusing to give up the idea of traditional low post center being the best scheme to anchor the team’s offense and defense. It’s hard to fathom what’s going through Frank Vogel’s mind right now as the Lakers trail the Phoenix Suns 0–1 and could be in danger of suffering a devastating first round loss rather then repeating as champions.

Unfortunately, the time has run out and Frank Vogel needs to abandon his obsession with Andre Drummond and either start Anthony Davis or Marc Gasol at center immediately or risk losing the opportunity to win #18.

Frank Vogel and the Lakers dodged a bullet against the Warriors and hopefully learned a key lesson when it comes to repeating as champions: Two’s company and three’s a crowd when it comes to Andre Drummond.

The Lakers’ best 5-man lineups offensively and defensively the past two years have always featured Anthony Davis at the five, LeBron James at the four, and three players capable of shooting the three and playing defense. The problem with playing a traditional low post center like Drummond alongside James and Davis is his presence in the paint creates crowds that make it easy for teams to prevent LeBron and AD from getting to the rim.

That’s what happened in the first half of the Play-In Game vs. the Warriors when Davis only played 4 minutes at center and the Warriors were able to sag off Drummond or Harrell to prevent the Lakers from attacking the rim. James, Davis, and Schroder as a result shot a combined 4 for 28 from the field as every shot at the rim was contested and 5 blocked and the Warriors forced the Lakers to shoot from outside and took a 13 point half time lead.

Contrast that with the second half when Davis played center for 18 of the 24 minutes and the Lakers, without a low post center clogging the paint, had wide open lanes to drive into the paint and attack the rim for buckets. Without Drummond or Harrell crowding the paint, James, Davis, and Schroder shot a combined 16 for 27 from the field and the Lakers rallied from down 13 to won the game with a 34-foot three from LeBron James.

Heading into their first round playoff series against the #2 seed Phoenix Suns, Frank Vogel needs to understand the Lakers cannot afford to lose first games by continuing to start traditional low post center Andre Drummond. The Lakers need to go all in and start Anthony Davis at the five or replace Andre Drummond with stretch five center Marc Gasol with the 3-point gravity to create space for James, Davis, and Schroder to attack the paint.

The Lakers face a tougher gauntlet to repeat as champions and need to understand that two’s company and three’s a crowd when it comes to Andre Drummond and commit to starting Anthony Davis or Marc Gasol at center.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has to be smiling at the serendipity of the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors meeting Wednesday night in the Play-In Tournament Game between the West’s 7th and 8th place teams.

No better appetizer than LeBron James vs. Steph Curry to get NBA fans excited and hungry for the playoffs after a second straight Covid ravaged season with limited live fans in the stands and declining television ratings. The winner earns the #7 seed and plays the #2 seed Suns in a first round playoff series while the loser has to play the winner of the 9th vs. 10th place game to earn the 8th seed and play the #1 Jazz in a first round series.

LeBron James and Steph Curry already have a storied history, playing each other 38 times, including 16 regular season games and 22 playoff games, with Curry winning 9 of 16 regular season and 15 of 22 playoff games. The threat of Steph and Warriors upsetting LeBron and the defending champion Lakers and sending them into an elimination game vs. the winner of the Grizzlies vs. the Spurs has purple and gold haters salivating.

Watching Steph go off late with three dagger threes to clinch Sunday’s win over the Grizzlies has NBA fans and pundits eagerly awaiting Wednesday night’s matchup between LeBron’s Lakers and Steph’s Warriors for 7th seed.

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While the Lakers opened up as 7-point favorites, the line has now dropped to 4.5 points as gamblers expect Golden State to go all-in with their small ball ‘Death Lineup’ with Draymond at center that won three championships.

The Lakers and Warriors met three times this season with Steph Curry catching fire late in the first game to pull off a 2-point Golden State upset but LA dominating the last two games with 26 and 31-point blowouts. With rookie center James Wiseman injured, the Warriors have gone small with Draymond Green at center and won 17 of the 25 games Steph Curry has played since their last game against the Lakers back on March 15.

Make no mistake, Steph Curry has taken his game to new heights since the three games against the Lakers, averaging 36.1 points per game compared to 29.3 points before March 15 to win the second NBA scoring title of his career. The Warriors will likely start Draymond Green at center against the Lakers like they did in their big win over the Grizzlies to clinch 8th place in the West, which puts pressure on Frank Vogel to go small with AD at the five.

With Drummond finally getting a chance and showing he can play with James and Davis, Vogel faces his first major matchup decision of this year’s playoffs: go big with Drummond at center or small with Davis at the five.

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Unlike as 7-game series, the Play-In game doesn’t leave any room for error. There’s no question the Lakers as a team are best with Anthony Davis at the five but they have been hesitant to go that route during the regular season.

Last year, AD played the five 25% of the time during the regular season and 40% of the time in the playoffs. This season, he has only played center less than 10% of the time as they have preferred to play him at power forward. The big question for Wednesday night’s game is whether Vogel will stay big and start Andre Drummond at center or counter Steve Kerr’s move to start Draymond Green at the five by starting Anthony Davis at the five.

Realistically, the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis should be able to dominate the boards and paint and beat the Warriors if they go big with Andre Drummond at center or small with Anthony Davis at center. Considering Drummond’s recent success with LeBron and AD, Vogel’s likely to stick with his starting lineup of Drummond at the five and Davis at the four and look to dominate the Warriors with their size and athleticism.

The danger is Drummond not being able to make the smart adjustments on offense and defense playing against a savant veteran like Draymond Green. If Drummond struggles, look for Vogel to make a quick change to go small.

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Frank Vogel’s personnel moves in last year’s playoffs were close to perfect as he dramatically increased the minutes superstar Anthony Davis played center from 25% during the regular season to over 40% during the playoffs.

Wednesday night’s Play-In game against the Warriors should give us a critical first hint of how Vogel is going to manage his center minutes in these playoffs. Will he rely on Drummond at the five or revert back to Davis? Along with the heath of LeBron James and Anthony Davis, how Drummond plays and what Vogel decides to do with his center minutes will likely determine whether Lakers can realistically repeat as champions.

There’s no question the Los Angeles Lakers face an unprecedented gauntlet to win their 18th NBA championship. Unlike any other champion in NBA history, the Lakers will have to win 17 games rather than 16 to do it.