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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreThe Lakers were confronted with pro basketball’s version of Sophies’ choice: the mercurial ‘difference-making playmaker’ or the lethal sharp shooter who took more threes than any player not named Steph Curry?
After negotiating with both the Sacramento Kings for Buddy Hield and the Washington Wizards for Russell Westbrook, the Lakers made a last minute decision to go with the mercurial playmaker over the lethal 3-point shooter. But there are whispers around the league the Lakers may have been simply setting the stage to expand the parameters of the Russell Westbrook trade to include other players and teams with a goal of still landing Buddy Hield.
In fact, you could argue giving up almost all of your trading chips for a max contract point guard who can’t shoot the three would be idiotic unless the Lakers had a plan to expand the trade to include Buddy Hield or a shooter.
WHY THE WESTBROOK TRADE COULD BE EXPANDED
Because the trade can’t be finalized until after the August 6 free agent moratorium begin, the Lakers still have time and opportunity to expand the trade to enable them to land both Russell Westbrook and Buddy Hield.
There’s a viable argument Rob Pelinka and Tommy Sheppard have agreed in advance to allow either team to expand the trade. Washington already has done this by trading the #22 pick in the draft to Indiana for Aaron Holiday. The obvious tell that this might be the case was the Wizards announcing to their fans that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was a keeper but Kyle Kuzma and Montrezl Harrell wouldn’t be part of the team’s roster on opening day.
Remember Kuzma and Harrell were the players the Sacramento Kings had tentatively agreed to accept in trade for prodigious 3-point shooter Buddy Hield. Coincidence or not, that opens the door for LA to expand the trade. The way this transaction is happening reminds me of how Pelinka, Griffin, and Sheppard managed the AD deal, which ended up being a three-team trade helping the Lakers could clear cap space to pursue Kawhi Leonard.
The Lakers have multiple options to try and expand the Russell Westbrook trade to include Buddy Hield. While accomplishing that will take some salary cap magic, it’s what multiple-team trades were designed to do.
CAN THE LAKERS AFFORD TO ACQURE BUDDY HIELD?
Aside from the logistic challenges acquiring Buddy, the question may be can the Lakers afford him? Everybody is assuming the Lakers are all-in on paying whatever they have to win since they traded for Russell Westbrook.
The problem is the total cost of going all-in could be prohibitive. Re-signing THT and Caruso, using the MLE, and paying Buddy Hield would result in $180 million in salary, $160 million in tax, and $340 million total payroll. Realistically, that’s way too much to pay in salary and taxes. The Lakers will have to chose between paying for a prodigious shooter like Buddy Hield or trustworthy role players like THT, Caruso, and a player for the MLE.
If the Lakers were to fill out the rest of their roster with minimum salary players, they would have $145.1 million in salaries and $13.7 million in taxes for a total payroll of $158.8 million, which would already exceed many teams. Adding Hield would cost $166.2 in salaries, $83.5 million in taxes, for a payroll of $249.7 million. Adding THT. Caruso, and MLE would cost $160.0 million in salaries and $57.8 million in taxes for a payroll of $217.8 million.
Ultimately, the Lakers may be forced to choose between adding a needed lethal shooter like Buddy Hield to give them the 3-point shooting they need or bringing back Horon-Tucker and Caruso and using the taxpayer MLE.
HOW DO LAKERS LAND RUSS AND BUDDY?
Once the Lakers accept that they have to choose between Hield and the Horton-Tucker, Caruso, and MLE trio of role players, they will have three pathways or options to expand the Westbrook trade to include Buddy.
These three options will depend upon Rob Pelinka and the Lakers being creative in finding teams willing to receive free agents like THT and Caruso in sign-and-trades that will hard cap the receiving team for the rest of season. Talen Horton-Tucker and Alex Caruso are projected to receive offers close to $10 million each so together they bring back $20 million per year in tradeable contracts the Lakers could use to expand the Westbrook trade.
The Lakers’s first option is to convince the Washington Wizards to accept a sign-and-trade for Dennis Schroder in lieu of Kyle Kuzma and Montrezl Harrell so the Lakers can send them to the Kings in return for Buddy Hield. The Lakers could offer to replace Kuzma and Harrell with THT and Caruso, two younger players who would be better fits on the the Wizards roster or worth more as trading chips in other deals to upgrade their roster.
The second option is for the Lakers to find a third team without cap space to sign Schroder in free agency but who are willing to sign-and-trade for him. Fortunately, there are a few teams in that situation who need a point guard. The key would be to swap Schroder for a player or pair of players whom the Kings would accept in trade for Hield or whom the Wizards would accept in lieu of Kuzma and Harrell in the deal for Russell Westbrook.
The Lakers’ third option is to find a team who’s interested in sign-and-trading for Horton-Tucker and Caruso and willing to give the Lakers one or two players they could flip to the Wizards in place of Kuzma and Harrell. This could be the Lakers most likely option to expanding the Westbrook trade to include Hield. Both Horton-Tucker and Caruso should be attractive sign-and-trade pieces for teams looking for defense or a potential future star.
Overall, the Lakers should be able to find a way to use Horton-Tucker and Caruso to expand the Russell Westbrook trade to include Buddy Hield and land both the mercurial playmaker and the lethal 3-point shooter.
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13 Comments-
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Aloha Tom
I’m sure Alex is dying to play for the Kings. And what if THT doesn’t want to play for the Kings and signs an offer sheet with another team. We can match but then we couldn’t trade him till December. While you can make deals work on paper, reality is much harder to make happen. As the musical chairs are being set up at PG I think its going to be easier to find a team willing to take on Dennis in a sign and trade because its looking like there will be a couple of teams left without a chair.
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No Lakers player other than maybe Kuz wants to be traded but it’s still a business and millions of dollars can ease the pain of having to take off your Lakers jersey.
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Yes but S&T’s require the players’ acquiesce. The key piece that this article kind of ignores is the fact that players basically leave the Kings when they can minute one. They’re a terrible organization, Luke is on the hot seat (even with his contract picked up) and the Kings a re super-guard heavy. You can’t force a S&T on THT or AC to places they don’t want to play, players under contract I don’t believe have that luxury, they can be included.
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LMAO. Jeez, I never realized that sign-and-trades required the players’ approval or that no player in the worls is willing to go to the Kings. Thanks for educating me on those points. Try opening your minds instead of negatively reacting to everthing. Talk about confirmation bias.
Seriously, I laid out numerous options how the Lakers can still get Buddy Hield and the salary cap numbers say the only way it’s going to happen is if the Laker are willing to pay the tax and sacrifice Alex and THT. If they’re willing to do that, they can find a way to trade for Buddy.
Funny how you want to keep Alex and THT even if it means we don’t have any money for shooters. You’re crazy if you think a bunch of vet minimum and role player guys like Alex and THT who don’t even average a made three per game is going to give the Lakers what Buddy Hields 4 makes and 10 takes per game would give us.
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Would you want to go to Sacramento?
AM I wrong in that the rules require a player not under contract to consent to a a S&T? Sheeeeeesh…They have guards up the wazoo, even when/if they trade Buddy. As I’ve said on podcasts, here and on FB I don’t see a way we get Buddy. Simple as that.
Dude, these are simple disagreements, man. Come on…it is a blog, right?
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And, yes, I do want to keep (and expect we will) Alex but am on the fence about THT. Feel free to use your own words and stopping yours into my mouth. Please and thanks.
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The big question is where are the Lakers at with respect to luxury taxes. Are they willing to pay $160M in taxes and $340M in payroll to get Hield and keep THT and Caruso? It’s not impossible they may decide they can’t afford Hield or even Caruso and just keep THT because of Klutch. We still don’t know where the front office is and what the walk away figure is for luxury taxes.
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This should be a decision between shooting or no shooting but it’s looking more and more like it may be a decision over how much taxes the Lakers are willing to pay. They can get Hield if they want but it could cost them THT and Caruso. I say go for it. I’m sure you say THT and Caruso are more valuable. But that’s whay we have a blog.
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Honestly if there is a trade for Buddy, it will happen in December. Because of the Arenas rule, teams can’t offer more then the Lakers for THT in the first year but they can back load in the 2nd and third. So really you can’t buy THT with a contract over market value. And Caruso too, how much are the kings willing to pay Alex over market value to land him, especially since there will be other teams interested. The Kings are probably 30th in desirable landing spots in the league. Both Alex and THT will have offers from better franchises. One other thing how badly would the Kings want them? Think they would pay Alex 12 mil or more to out bid other teams? I just don’t see a realistic way to make a trade for Buddy unless we can get a desirable piece in a trade for Dennis.
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One last point, the Kings need help on the front line. That’s what Kuz and Harrell were appealing. The Kings have good young guards. Would they use a big trade piece like Buddy for 2 more guards?
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The Arenas rule says teams can load the 3rd and 4th years, not the 2nd and 3rd.
Lakers just need to find a buyer who will give them enough for THT and Caruso that the Wizard will accept in lieu of Kuz and Trezz.
Doesn’t have to be the Kings. Just a team to give them enough to get the Wizards to take instead of Kuz and Trezz.
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Kuz maybe on his way to the Nets in a Dinwiddie trade. Still a chance the Knicks may try for Dinwiddie but all the chatter seems to be leaning towards the Nets.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreHeading into the 2021 NBA Draft, there’s an emerging possibility DeMar DeRozan could end up being the ‘difference-making playmaker’ the Lakers need to move LeBron James to the four and Anthony Davis to the five.
While known mostly for his elite midrange game and reluctance to shoot the three, DeRozan has evolved into an elite playmaker with the Spurs the last three years, averaging 6.9 assists on 2.0 turnovers per game last season. Posting the 10th most assists per game and 11th best assists-to-turnovers ratio by a guard, DeMar may have catapulted himself into consideration for the ‘difference-making playmaker’ the Lakers need to win next season.
Pairing DeMar DeRozan with a volume 3-point shooter like Buddy Hield could give the Lakers the midrange specialist they need to close games and the high volume, high percentage 3-point shooter they need for spacing. DeMar DeRozan as primary playmaker and Buddy Hield as main floor spacer should enable the Lakers to build a dynamic championship starting lineup with LeBron James to the four and Anthony Davis to the five.
The Lakers are optimistically hoping DeMar would agree to sign for the $9.5 million non-taxpayer MLE but chances are they would have to work out a sign-and-trade with the Spurs to be able to actually acquire DeRozan. John Hollinger is projected DeRozan’s value on the free agent market to be $16 million so the Lakers would probably have to give him a 3-year deal starting at around $15 million per year to get him to agree to a sign-and-trade.
Fitting Hield and DeRozan under the $142.9 million hard cap will be a challenge but could be the Los Angeles Lakers best option for upgrading their starting lineup and odds of winning their 18th NBA championship.
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Trying to add DeMar DeRozan and Buddy Hield to the Lakers starting lineup would make them odds on favorites to win the championship next season.
DeRozan would not only give the Lakers the ‘difference-making playmaker’ they covet but also a deadeye midrange jump shooter who can get a high percentage shot to close out those tough games in the playoffs.
Hield’s high volume/percentage 3-point shooting would help the Lakers turn around their negative 3-point differential and prevent teams from packing the paint against LeBron and AD.
It would be perfect if DeMar was willing to sign for the $9.5 million full MLE but most likely the Lakers will have to sign-and-trade him for around $15 million, which would make it a challenge filling out the rest of the roster.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreThere’s no former Lakers’ player who is more polarizing or misunderstood than Lonzo Ball, who was drafted #2 overall by Los Angeles back in 2017 where he played his first two seasons before being traded to New Orleans.
Over hyped by Magic Johnson and the LA media and hounded by his father LaVar Ball’s antics, Lonzo Ball spent a good portion of his two seasons with the Lakers fighting injuries and trying to live up to inflated expectations. But being exiled to New Orleans via the Anthony Davis trade allowed Lonzo the time and opportunity to work on honing his game, especially his 3-point and free throw shooting and overall decision making as a point guard.
Now that it appears the Pelicans are committed to pursuing Kyle Lowry as their starting point guard going forward, here are ten reasons why Lonzo Ball is the perfect point guard for LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers:
1. EXCEPTIONAL BASKETBALL IQ
One of intangible LeBron and the Lakers value is basketball IQ. Lonzo’s greatest talent is his vision and anticipation at both ends of the court. Like Caruso, Lonzo does the little things that don’t show in the box score.
2. ELITE VOLUME 3-POINT SHOOTER
The Lakers need volume 3-point shooters. After shooting just 31.5% on 5.3 attempts per game his two years with the Lakers, Lonzo shot an impressive 37.6% from deep on 7.2 attempts per game in two years with the Pelicans.
3. SAVVY AND VERSATILE DEFENDER
At 6′ 6″ with a 6′ 7″ wingspan, Lonzo has all the instincts and tools to be an elite defender who can guard ones, twos, and threes and provide defensive savvy and versatility that few NBA point guards are capable of doing.
4. GIFTED PASSER AND PLAYMAKER
From high school to UCLA to the Lakers and then the Pelicans, Lonzo has always been a ready made playmaking highlight reel. While he still needs to improve his P&R passing, Lonzo is an elite outlet and lob playmaker.
5. BALL NEVER STOPS OR STICKS
With LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the lineup, the Lakers don’t really want a ball dominant point guard. Lonzo is a great fit because the ball doesn’t stop when it gets to him. Lonzo’s elite at moving the basketball.
6. EXPERIENCE PLAYING WITH LEBRON
While Lonzo struggled at times during his 2-year stint in LA, he had a great relationship with LeBron James, who always respected his game and knew and understood the pressures Lonzo faced with all of the media hype.
7. FAMILIAR WITH BRIGHT LIGHTS OF LA
You hear Lakers fans and media always talking about how players struggle to play or shoot as well in LA as other cities because of the bright lights. Lonzo has been here before and that will help him adjust to playing in LA.
8. GREAT UPSIDE AT 22-YEARS OLD
Just 22-years old with 4 years of NBA experience, Lonzo has already shown he is nowhere near the player he has the potential to become. He needs to learn to run pick-and-rolls and to attack the basket with drives and floaters.
9. REASONABLE SALARY AND BIRD RIGHTS
With Kyle Lowry, Dennis Schroder, and Spencer Dinwiddie now demanding much of the attention and $30 million per year, the Lakers may have an opportunity to sign-and-trade Lonzo for $20 to $22 million per year.
10. MEMBER OF KLUTCH SPORTS’ FAMILY
Don’t disregard how important being a Klutch Sports client could be to Lonzo Ball ending up on the Lakers. Rich Paul and Rob Pelinka already have an impressive track record at directing Klutch talent to the Lakers.
This is going to be one of the most dynamic offseasons in NBA history. The Play-In Tournament has suddenly transformed a leauge that used to be split fairly evenly between sellers and buyers. Now it’s like everybody’s a buyer.
The Lakers want to reduce the workload on 36-year old LeBron by acquiring a ‘difference-making playmaker’ so James can move to the four and Davis to the five. Lonzo’s 7 assists and 7 attempted threes per game are a pefect fit. The Lakers don’t need a ball-dominant point guard like CP3 or Russ. They need a point guard who can quickly get the ball in the right player’s hands, take and make a high volume of threes to create spacing, and play defense.
Lonzo Ball may not be the old school ball-dominant point guard but he has the potential to become the prototype future modern NBA point guard and is the perfect point guard for LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.
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With Kyle Lowry wanting $30 million per year for three years and Russell Westbrook throwing the Lakes into luxury tax hell, I’m starting to like the option of signing-and-trading for Lonzo Ball as the Lakers best option for a ‘difference-making playmaker.’
I love Lonzo’s 7 assists and 7 attempted threes per game plus his defensive savvy and versatility. He needs to improve his pick-and-roll playmaking and his ability to attack and finish at the rim, but he’s already shown a great ability to adjust and adapt with how he has improved his 3-point and free throw shooting. That bodes well for Lonzo being able to become an All-Star point guard down the road.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the upcoming point guard musical chairs dance that’s coming up starting on Thursday. With the Pels looking to land Lowry, teams chasing Simmons, the shadow of Westbrook lurking, Lonzo could end up being the surprise point guard for the Lakers. I think he might be our best overall option.
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#10 is the biggest reason why this isn’t outlandish. I think the Pelicans are gearing up to retain Lonzo, not trade for Lowry but who knows.
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Also, I’d be fine with Lonzo coming back to LA but I also feel like that’s unlikely, as well. The brothers who have made it in the NBA have done well away from home. Coincidence? Maybe, but maybe there’s something to playing with less pressure and not more.
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I watched an interview where a valid point was made. They said for years people have been trying to pair a true point guard with LeBron but it’s usually been a secondary ball handler like a shooting guard. In essence LeBron is the point guard and probably always will be. In this context I wouldn’t mind Lonzo. He’s great on the break. In the half court LeBron could handle the half court offense. I wouldn’t have Lonzo run the 2nd unit. While Alex isn’t a wizard with the ball he runs the half court better. You might even have THT run the 2nd unit. He handles the ball well and is a much better finisher at the rim. You could even look into bringing in Bledsoe if he gets bought out, which he probably will. Could sign him to minimum deal.
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Aloha, Michael,
There’s a reason why the Lakers want to acquire a ‘difference-making playmaker’ to play the one so they can move LeBron to the four and you can bet your life that LeBron James is part of that decision.
Fans don’t realize how much effort it takes to play point guard vs. playing off the ball. That’s why LeBron doesn’t bring the ball up the court and it’s why the Lakers want LeBron to play more off the ball this season. He’s 36 years old and has now sufferred a season ending injury in 2 of the last 3 seasons. The Lakers need to preserve as much of LeBron as they can and having him play off the ball at the four is a smart way to do that.
If the Lakers can bring in an elite playmaker, then we may see LeBron become more of a scorer than playmaker. As good as James is as a playmaker, the reality is he is probably better as a scorer. Think of how Rondo at the one and LeBron at the four worked during the Bubble Championship. The 36-year old version of LeBron could average 30 points per game next season with a Lowry, Westbrook, Ball, or DeRozan at the one.
As for Caruso, there’s no way he’s in the rotation at point guard. He’s a turnover waiting to happen. He averages 2.8 turnover per game in just 21 minutes. THT is a much better ball handler and playmaker but neither of them are capable of taking over the one so LeBron can play the four.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreWhy should the Los Angeles Lakers settle for a Superstar Big Three when there’s a legitimate chance they can create the NBA’s first Superstar Big Four with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyle Lowry, and DeMar DeRozan?
The odds of the Lakers pulling off deals to land both Lowry and DeRozan may be long and depend on the loyal and grateful Toronto Raptors and San Antonio Spurs working to get Kyle and DeMar to their desired destinations. While there’s an interest from Lowry and DeRozen to join the Lakers, the path to acquire them would require both players to agree to take a pay cut over what they’re currently making and agree to a sign-and-trade to LA.
Here’s how the Lakers could add Lowry and DeRozan to James and Davis, how they could fill out the rest of the roster despite being hardcapped, and why a Superstar Big Four could well portend the NBA’s next dynasty.
ADDING LOWRY AND DEROZAN
The only way the Lakers can acquire Kyle Lowry is via a sign-and-trade with the Toronto Raptors. The Lakers have two options for acquiring DeMar DeRozan: sign-and-trade for him or sign him for the $9.5 million full MLE.
Since receiving a player via a sign-and-trade automatcially hardcaps a team, the Lakers will have to keep total salaries, including the $5 million left on the books from Luol Deng, under the $142.9 million hard cap for 2021–22. Adding both Lowry and DeRozan is possible if the Lakers can limit their combined starting annual salaries under $35 million and move Kuzma, Caldwell-Pope, Horton-Tucker, and Harrell if he exercises his player option.
If the Lakers were successful in creating a Superstar Big Four with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyle Lowry, and DeMar DeRozan, they would immediately become championship favorites for the 2021–22 season.
FILLING OUT THE FULL ROSTER
After building a Superstar Big Four with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, the Lakers will only have $27.8 million left under the $142.9 million hard cap to fill out the rest of their roster.
There are two options for the Lakers to fill out the roster. In the first option, Los Angeles sign-and-trades for Kyle Lowry, straight trades for Reggie Bullock, and then signs DeMar DeRozan to the full Mid Level Exception. The Lowry trade clears Schroder, Kuzma, and Horton-Tucker from the roster and the Bullock trade clears Caldwell-Pope and Harrell. With 4 superstars, Gasol, and pick, the Lakers need at least six more players to have 12.
In the second option, Los Angeles reduces their sign-and-trade offer for Lowry by $5 million, uses the extra money to sign-and-trade DeRozan for $15 million, and then signs Reggie Bullock for the full Mid Level Exception. The Lowry and Bullock trades clear the salaries of Schroder, Kuzma, Horton-Tucker, Caldwell-Pope and Harrell from the Lakers’ salary cap, giving them the cap space for the six players to fill out the roster to 12 players.
While the above rosters only have 12 active players, the Lakers can either try to free up another $3.4 million to add two more players or they can sign two new players to two-way contracts to provide two extra bodies.
BUILDING THE NEXT DYNASTY
A starting lineup of LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, and Reggie Bullock would be a huge upgrade over last year’s starting fivesome and set the stage for another Lakers’ dynasty.
The Lakers would be replacing the Schroder and Caldwell-Pope backcourt that only made 3.0 threes out of 7.9 attempts per game with the Lowry and Bullock backcourt that averaged 5.3 threes out of 13.3 attempts per game. That would result in a 68.3% increase in 3-point takes and 76.7% increase in 3-point makes by the Lakers backcourt. Making 2.3 additional 3-point shots per game would boost LA’s offensive output by 7 points per game.
Transforming the Lakers’ backcourt from low volume, low percentage to high volume, high percentage would eliminate the Lakers’ negative 3-point differential and opens the door to add DeMar DeRozan at small forward. Starting DeRozan would give the Lakers a lethal midrange jump shooter who can close games and get his shot against any defender like his mentor Kobe Bryant or stars like Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul, and Devin Booker.
The Lakers will be looking at multiple options for rebuilding their roster but creating a Superstar Big Four with James, Davis, Lowry, and DeRozan plus Bullock could set the stage for the Los Angeles Lakers next dynasty.
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While it might appear that the Lakers’ chances of landing Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are slim, it’s hard to imagine the Toronto Raptors or the San Antonio Spurs not being willing to reward two players whose great careers were synonomous with their franchises’ success.
Both players are future Hall of Famers who are unrestricted free agents for whom the Raps and Spurs would get nothing if they signed anywhere as free agents. Toronto has already said they would help Kyle get to where he wants to go and I can’t believe the Spurs would not be willing to do the same for DeMar despite their hatred of the Lakers. It’s not like KCP and Harrell would not be great fits on the Spurs.
It’s hard to pinpoint what the Lakers or other teams are going to do because there are so many factors still in play. Ideally, the Lakers would somehow get Lowry, DeRozan, and Bullock to give up $3.4 million so the Lakers could add Trevor Ariza and DeMarcus Cousins to bring their roster to 14 active players. I have to think all three of them could see the huge potential to create a dynasty if the Lakers could add them to LeBron and AD.
At any rate, just another example of the kind of rosters the Lakers could build despite being hard capped. Eric Pincus’ comments about the Lakers possibly being willing to be hardcapped and their history of minimizing how much luxury taxes they are willing to play reinforce the idea that the Lakers might perfer to be hard capped rather than pay the kind of luxury taxes thast will be assessed agsinst the Warriors and Nets.
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Thanks for the post, Tom. While the starting five you mentioned is a no-brainer, there has to be a strong consideration for the makeup of the bench as well. Great teams always have a dependable bench to maintain continuity. A good starting five with a thin bench is not a blueprint for success, and will only make us pay the piper.
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Thanks for reading and commenting, Buba. I do believe the Lakers’ Achilles heel last year after injuries was the inconsistent performance of the non-superstar starters: Schroder, KCP, Gasol/Drummond. That was exposed in the playoffs.
If you look at the depth chart built into the salary graphics you should love the bench of Patty Mills, Alex Caruso, Wes Matthews, Markieff Morris, and Marc Gasol. Four returning player from last year’s bench with a real point guard who can shoot and run the offense in Mills. That’s great continuity. Mills is the difference maker for the bench but it’s definitely the starting lineup that is the key in my opinion.
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Nice proposal with sufficient details.
Two comments:
1) I’d prefer getting JJ Reddick on vet min than Carmelo.
2) I’m sure AD will refuse to play 5 consistently. His philosophy is to not get banged up during the regular season by the opposing bigs! I think the Lakers admin has already yielded to him on that, in return for his acceptance to play 5 when needed in the playoffs.Othersie I’ll be happy to get Lowry and DeRozan.
But I might prefer it if we can get Lonzo and Hield instead. Can we work the numbers for that and compare? I think Lonzo’s youth and ability to playmake are attractive to me. And he has improved his shooting a lot!
And Hield is the best 3 point shooter in the NBA. I think we might be able to get Hield for Kuz, Trezz and the ’21 (first rd) pick, and get Lonzo for KCP, THT and the ’26 pick (by making the Pels settle on the ’24 pick from before). Fill the rest with vet mins, including Dwight.Finally, I can think of a three star Lakers team which will be better than either of these scenarios. And that would be spearheaded by Bron, AD and Beal. If that’s possible, that would be my first choice by a mile, and I hope Rob is thinking about it now!
Thanks for the hard work you’ve put in.
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Hey, Dean, thanks for reading and commenting.
I would be up for J.J. Reddick and assume he is still capable of lighting it up.
It will be interesting to see how much center AD plays this year. You may be right but I also think AD may understand that he will have to play more center for the Lakers to win now. And if the Lakers are planning to move LeBron to the 4 and AD to the 5, as Stein says, then you can be sure that plan has already been run by LeBron and AD. I have my fingers crossed but frankly will believe it when I see it. But it’s the right move.
I love the idea of Lonzo and Buddy and would be up for that. Fits Michael’s younger rather than older, which I don’t disagree with as long as we’re not talking about 22-year old point guards with 1.57 assists to turnover ratio.
Lonzo and Buddy vs. Kyle and DeMar? I still think Kyle and DeMar are better and won’t cost millions in luxury taxes. But give me either and I would be a happy camper. Lots of good options. Will be a game of musical chairs. I’ll work out the cost of that lineup and post it later.
Yeah, calling Kyle and DeMar superstars is a stretch for sure and Beal or a true superstar Big Three would probably be better. However, I do love the idea of Lowry and Bullock providing the 3-point shooting takes and makes and DeMar getting clutch midrange buckets to close games.
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Have to admire your number crunching LT. While this looks and feels like the longest of longshots it’s within the realm of numerical reality. I always have a hard time seeing guys who are in their prime (DeRozan, Mills, Bullock) willingly walk away from potentially more money. They don’t go into the offseason wondering “How can I get myself on the Lakers and team up with ‘Bron and AD?” They wonder how many 0’s will be at the end of a number, what their role will be if it’s a new team and then assess the roster to see if they think they can carry it across the line. You don’t get as good as DeMar is by not believing you don’t have all the tools necessary to change the title fortunes of a team single-handidly.
As you noted, the Spurs/Laker animosity is real. Very difficult to see them helping us in any way but if they covet those 2 players I suppose it’s possible. I think they’d rather trade with Mars than us but seeing as Mars doesn’t have a team in the Association they may be forced to dance with the devil, as it were.
The part where I actually feel like this bogs down a little is in the role-players all accepting that little money. Kieff fielded better offers last season and I expect he will again. Back to back vet minimums feels unlikely but then you can just play the “Who Wnats the Vet Min to play in LA” game and see what comes out at the end. Alex will get more than $5 mil tossed his way, is he that all in on the Lakers? Maybe, maybe that Man Scultping deal is enough to keep him hoping for an endorsement or two elsewhere? Those guys will never see LeBron money and need to max out the money when they can. AC has his ring, he won’t ever have to field the Barkley question now and his skillset is difficult to replace.
I like that you have us keeping the pick in this particular scenario which I also believe we will do. There has to be some form of team building every season, it is possible to be in win now mode and not utterly sacrifice the future of the team.
The final critique I have comes back to my philosophy that you only hard cap for a bona fide superstar. These guys are All Stars, DeRozan could still find another level from three since he’s such a good shooter and free throw shooter. Lowry could find the fountain of youth but neither really fills out the superstar resume’. The restrictions you impose by hard capping will make it really difficult to tweak the roster should it fall flat on it’s face. The only meaningful contracts are all the players you went all in for and if they under-perform on the Lakers who would want to fork over players of impact for that type of return? You can’t participate in the buy out market (which I strongly suspect will feature Rondo). The hard cap isn’t the worst thing that can happen but it certainly makes it easier to move talent at the trade deadline, participate in the buyout market and retain our own free agents.
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Thanks for reading and commenting, Jamie.
Yeah, it’s so easy to spend OPM. In this case, it’s the players’ money more than the team’s money since the Lakers would be hardcapped. But both players have indicated they understand at this point in their career they need to be willilng to take less.
Lowry is said to be looking for 3-years at $20 to $25 million and DeMar has said he would take a discount but not how much from the $27M he made with Spurs last season. Estimates of his market value have been around $17 million. That’s what I based my S&T values on. And that only gets us to 12 players.
I do think both Lowry and DeRozan will be interested in Lakers. I also think obtaining both of them makes total sense. Lowry’s high volume, high percentage 3-point shooting and the Lakers decision (hopefully) to move LeBron and AD to the 4 and 5 open the door to include an elite midrange scrorer like DeMar. We know there’s a place for that kind of player on the Lakers if they solve their shooting woes, which Bullock and Lowry would do.
I’m not so sure that role players are going to want more other than Caruso, who deservs more but is also helped immensely by playing with LeBron and THT, whom the Lakers are going to take care of because of Klutch. The other guys will be fine with the minimum.
Remember it’s only the minimum salary of a 2-year vet player that is charged to a team’s salary cap. The rest of the scheduled pay that’s dependent on the numbers of years played is paid by the league and not charged against the team’s salary cap. And the minimum salaries are prorated, which is why the Lakers will have no problem adding minimum players from buyout market although they won’t be able to pay more than the minimum.
I’m keeping the pick because this is a deep draft and there are some excellent prospects out there and the pick is cheaper than a vet minimum player. I did give up THT rather than the shooter because he’s key to getting Lowry and I worry about his 3-point shooting. I don’t believe Lowry is Steve Nash 2.0. He still is playing and shooting like the future HOFer he is.
I generally agree with your don’t hardcap unless it’s for a superstar but when I look at the starting five and reserve five in this lineup, I see a dramatically better shooting and scoring team that hasn’t given up much at all on the defensive end.
Yes, it will be difficult to tweak the lineup during the season but the strategy is to upgrade the starting lineup but keep the reserves together except with a replacement for the missing Rondo, which is what going after Patty Mills would provide. While Big Four is great for the title, the Lakers would still have a legitimate Superstar Big Three with Kyle Lowry. In fact, there Big Three would all have won championships in the last three years.
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Lowry and Derozan aren’t even stars, much less superstars. They’d have never made the ASG in the west. The teams results in the absence of Lebron and AD with those two may have been a game or two better, possibly worse with Lowry’s tendency to get nicked up too.
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Aloha, while your trades work on paper there are too many moving parts for it to really work. The first problem the NBA minimum roster is 13. So you need to add at least an undrafted rookie. You can only suit 12 for a game so perhaps that what you are thinking. Next Caruso will be gone at 5 mil. His market value is full MLE. This will be his first big contract and I have a hard time believing he will take a nearly 5 mil discount. An even bigger issue is a trade with the Spurs. Pop is still pissed off over the Pau trade. When we tried to trade for Kawai he basically asked for all of our players and draft picks forever and ever. And that was a guy that helped them win a championship. Like Kawai Derosen wants to go home but I can’t see Pop doing him any favors. We will also have competition for ring chasers. There several teams that be seen as contenders so there will be MLE money available for a lot of them.
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LOL. OK, I’ll keep going deeper into the rabbit hole.
I actually think the Lakers need to have at least 14 players on the roster so they need to save $3.4 million from Lowry, Bullock, or DeRozan for the plan to really work.
As for Caruso, he would be smart to take what the Lakers offer because he’s much better fit for playing with LeBron on the Lakers than anywhere else. He’ll sign for a home town discount and he’s not the untouchable that you and his GOAT fans seem to believe he is. Grasss won’t be greener for him somewhere else.
The only way this trade works is if Kyle and DeMar want it to work. If they do, I don’t see Masai or Pops wanting to get in the way of they’re going to the Lakers, especially if they’re getting two good players for their star rather than losing them for nothing in free agency.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreThere’s a reason why more than half of the teams in the NBA opted to be hardcapped this past season. While hardcapping limits what a team can spend on salaries for the season, it also gives teams other advantages.
The first advantage is hardcapped teams can sign-and-trade for other teams’ free agents. For teams like the LA Lakers who don’t have cap space, sign-and-trades are the only way they can acquire a high priced free agent. The Lakers’ priority this summer is to find a ‘difference-making playmaker.’ Since the top point guards this summer will be free agents, the Lakers may have to accept being hardcapped to land the elite playmaker they covet.
The second advantage is hardcapped teams get the full $9.5 million MLE to sign one or more free agents from other teams. The full MLE gives the Lakers a huge competitive advantage versus teams that are not hardcapped. Non-hardcapped teams only get the $5.9 million taxpayer MLE or the $4.9 million room MLE so the Lakers would be able to offer the best MLE candidates a greater annual salary than non-hardcapped teams can offer.
Landing an elite veteran point guard via sign-and-trade and a deadeye 3-point shooting guard or small forward via the full MLE could give the Lakers two starters superior to any players available if not hardcapped.
What makes being hardcapped a smart strategy for teams without cap space is the access to star free agent players. Sign-and-trades and the full MLE are powerful tools to accelerate building a caliber championship team.
The Lakers’ top sign-and-trade point guard target is Kyle Lowry, whom they tried to trade for at the deadline. Lonzo Ball, Chris Paul, Devonte Graham, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Derrick Rose are also sign-and-trade candidates. The Lakers’ top point guard trade target is Malcolm Brogdon, whom the Pacers have now put on the trade block. Russell Westbrook, Kemba Walker, Collin Sexton, and Terry Rozier are other point guards available via trade.
The Lakers’ top shooting guard candidate for the MLE is the Hornets’ Malik Monk, an unrestricted free agent sharpshooter. Other shooting guards for the MLE are Victor Oladipo, Alex Burks, Terrence Davis, and J.J. Redick. The Lakers’ top small forward target for the MLE is the Pelicans’ Josh Hart. Will Barton, Josh Hart, Furkan Korkmaz, Kelly Oubre, Kent Bazemore, Otto Porter, Jr., and Reggie Bullock are other small foward MLE candidates.
Being hardcapped would be worth it if the Lakers could sign-and-trade for Kyle Lowry and then sign a second quality starter like Malik Monk or Josh Hart with the full MLE. The #22 pick also becomes valuable if hardcapped.
There are severe limits to what a team can do if hardcapped. A sign-and-trade for Kyle Lowry or any free agent cannot exceed $25 million per year or the Lakers might not be able to re-sign Caruso and Horton-Tucker.
There’s a misconception teams can build better, deeper rosters by paying luxury taxes rather than being hardcapped. The reality is luxury taxes are structured so that progressive penalties rapidly limit what teams can do. Should the Lakers traded for Russell Westbrook, the annual salaries of LeBron, AD, Russ, Gasol, eight players for the vet minimum, and Deng’s $5 million waive-and-stretch total $142.0 million or close to the tax apron.
The luxury tax bill for using the taxpayer $5.9 million MLE to add a 13th player would be expensive. The total luxury taxes would cost the Lakers $12.5 million, bringing the annual pay for that player to $18.4 million. From there, the taxes become even more exorbitant. Adding 14th and 15th players who earn just the veteran minimum salary of $1.7 million would cost the Lakers another $15 million in taxes to completely fill out the roster.
The bottom line is there are advantages and disadvantages for teams willing to be hardcapped or pay luxury taxes. Which route a team chooses will depend on the specific roster needs and financial landscape of the team.
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To hard cap or not to hard cap? While the concensus of most Lakers fans is not to hard cap, the decision whether or not to hard cap is not a slam dunk either way. It depends on whether the players you need are available via trade or only via free agency. For teams like the Lakers, who don’t have cap space, access to elite free agents can often swing the pendulum in favor of hard capping just to get access to the Kyle Lowrys and Lonzo Balls.
If the Lakers can work out a sign-and-trade for Kyle Lowry, that would be my top priority even though it would hard cap us. Besides getting the best ‘affordable’ point guard prospect, we would also be able to offer the full $9.5M MLE. In other words, accepting being hard capped could result in the Lakers landing two better players than if they went the luxury tax route.
What will the Lakers do? It will depend on who really becomes available. If they can get Lowry, then hard cap. If they can’t, then maybe go after Lonzo or try to work out a straight trade with the Pacers for Brogdon. While there are challenges, there are also multiple pathways and players for the Lakers to pursue this summer whether they choose to be hard capped or not.
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Kelly Oubre. Anyone? By the way, Tom, great analysis. Making it easier for me to understand the nuances of the trade jigsaw puzzle.
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Thanks, Buba. It may not be rocket science but it definitely has its own set of complications. And I would love to be able to sign Oubre for the full MLE.
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Can’t see a way hard capping us helps us. Feud with Kuzma and all I’d rather keep Schroeder and look to trade him. mid-season. The only hard cap scenario I feel like I can get behind is one where Caruso and THT take deals elsewhere the Lakers don’t want to match. Since the benefit of retaining our free agents is that we can push into tax territory if that path closes to us. Then we would almost have to be open to the idea of using the Schroeder/Harrell S&T to restock the pond, as it were.
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LOL. You need to open your eyes. There are good reasons NOT to hardcap but there are also good reasons TO hardcap, including having access to more and better players and getting the full MLE.
Whether the Lakers hardcap or not will depend on availability of players. If they can S&T for Lowry, then they would gladlyi accept the hard cap and use the full MLE to sign a second star like DeRozan or Tucker. If they can’t get Lowry, chances are they will go after Russ in a trade and accept heavy luxury taxes.
It’s about who the Lakers can get more than whether or not it’s better to hard cap or pay luxury taxes.
I could see a scenario where we kept Dennis and traded him at the deadline but only if we couldn’t move him in a S&T. That’s a scenario we don’t want to happen because it means we couldn’t find the playmaker we wanted and are just kicking the can down the road.
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Buddy Hield or Talen Horton-Tucker, Alex Caruso, and MLE?
Lethal 3-point shooter or trusted low scoring bench players?
$249.7 million total payroll or $217.8 million total payroll?
Would the Lakers sacrifice THT and Caruso for Buddy Hield? That is the question because it seems doubtful the Lakers would be willing to pay the $180 million in salary, $160 million in tax, and $340 million total payroll it would take to be able to do both. As profitable and committed to winning as the Lakers have historically been, going all-in like this is probably too much even for Jeanie Buss to commit to.
The question then is are the Lakers willing to even go as high as $166.2 in salaries, $83.5 million in taxes, for a payroll of $249.7 million to land Buddy Hield when the cost to keep THT, Caruso, and the MLE would be $160.0 million in salaries and $57.8 million in taxes for a payroll of $217.8 million. That too is doubtful. I could easily see the Lakers deciding $83.5 million in taxes was too much despite Jeanie’s saying they would pay what they need to do to win.
The question then is how do the Lakers get enough shooting. The problem they have is not that they can’t get several players for less who are high percentage 3-point shooters. The issue is they need one or two players who are high volume 3-point shooter. Guys like THT and Caruso, who only take 2 to 4 threes per game are not the answer. The Lakers need players like Hield who take 10 threes per game.
The Lakers may tell themselves that defense and physicality won them the championship in the bubble and adding Westbrook to that team should be enough to win a championship even without upgrading their 3-point shooting. I hope that’s not what they decide, but I am worried that may be what happens. That risks turning the Westbrook trade into a disaster rather than an opportunity. We’ll find out tomorrow whether or not the Lakers go all-in to land Westbrook and Hield.