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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreWhy should the Los Angeles Lakers settle for a Superstar Big Three when there’s a legitimate chance they can create the NBA’s first Superstar Big Four with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyle Lowry, and DeMar DeRozan?
The odds of the Lakers pulling off deals to land both Lowry and DeRozan may be long and depend on the loyal and grateful Toronto Raptors and San Antonio Spurs working to get Kyle and DeMar to their desired destinations. While there’s an interest from Lowry and DeRozen to join the Lakers, the path to acquire them would require both players to agree to take a pay cut over what they’re currently making and agree to a sign-and-trade to LA.
Here’s how the Lakers could add Lowry and DeRozan to James and Davis, how they could fill out the rest of the roster despite being hardcapped, and why a Superstar Big Four could well portend the NBA’s next dynasty.
ADDING LOWRY AND DEROZAN
The only way the Lakers can acquire Kyle Lowry is via a sign-and-trade with the Toronto Raptors. The Lakers have two options for acquiring DeMar DeRozan: sign-and-trade for him or sign him for the $9.5 million full MLE.
Since receiving a player via a sign-and-trade automatcially hardcaps a team, the Lakers will have to keep total salaries, including the $5 million left on the books from Luol Deng, under the $142.9 million hard cap for 2021–22. Adding both Lowry and DeRozan is possible if the Lakers can limit their combined starting annual salaries under $35 million and move Kuzma, Caldwell-Pope, Horton-Tucker, and Harrell if he exercises his player option.
If the Lakers were successful in creating a Superstar Big Four with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyle Lowry, and DeMar DeRozan, they would immediately become championship favorites for the 2021–22 season.
FILLING OUT THE FULL ROSTER
After building a Superstar Big Four with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, the Lakers will only have $27.8 million left under the $142.9 million hard cap to fill out the rest of their roster.
There are two options for the Lakers to fill out the roster. In the first option, Los Angeles sign-and-trades for Kyle Lowry, straight trades for Reggie Bullock, and then signs DeMar DeRozan to the full Mid Level Exception. The Lowry trade clears Schroder, Kuzma, and Horton-Tucker from the roster and the Bullock trade clears Caldwell-Pope and Harrell. With 4 superstars, Gasol, and pick, the Lakers need at least six more players to have 12.
In the second option, Los Angeles reduces their sign-and-trade offer for Lowry by $5 million, uses the extra money to sign-and-trade DeRozan for $15 million, and then signs Reggie Bullock for the full Mid Level Exception. The Lowry and Bullock trades clear the salaries of Schroder, Kuzma, Horton-Tucker, Caldwell-Pope and Harrell from the Lakers’ salary cap, giving them the cap space for the six players to fill out the roster to 12 players.
While the above rosters only have 12 active players, the Lakers can either try to free up another $3.4 million to add two more players or they can sign two new players to two-way contracts to provide two extra bodies.
BUILDING THE NEXT DYNASTY
A starting lineup of LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, and Reggie Bullock would be a huge upgrade over last year’s starting fivesome and set the stage for another Lakers’ dynasty.
The Lakers would be replacing the Schroder and Caldwell-Pope backcourt that only made 3.0 threes out of 7.9 attempts per game with the Lowry and Bullock backcourt that averaged 5.3 threes out of 13.3 attempts per game. That would result in a 68.3% increase in 3-point takes and 76.7% increase in 3-point makes by the Lakers backcourt. Making 2.3 additional 3-point shots per game would boost LA’s offensive output by 7 points per game.
Transforming the Lakers’ backcourt from low volume, low percentage to high volume, high percentage would eliminate the Lakers’ negative 3-point differential and opens the door to add DeMar DeRozan at small forward. Starting DeRozan would give the Lakers a lethal midrange jump shooter who can close games and get his shot against any defender like his mentor Kobe Bryant or stars like Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul, and Devin Booker.
The Lakers will be looking at multiple options for rebuilding their roster but creating a Superstar Big Four with James, Davis, Lowry, and DeRozan plus Bullock could set the stage for the Los Angeles Lakers next dynasty.
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Thanks for the post, Tom. While the starting five you mentioned is a no-brainer, there has to be a strong consideration for the makeup of the bench as well. Great teams always have a dependable bench to maintain continuity. A good starting five with a thin bench is not a blueprint for success, and will only make us pay the piper.
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Thanks for reading and commenting, Buba. I do believe the Lakers’ Achilles heel last year after injuries was the inconsistent performance of the non-superstar starters: Schroder, KCP, Gasol/Drummond. That was exposed in the playoffs.
If you look at the depth chart built into the salary graphics you should love the bench of Patty Mills, Alex Caruso, Wes Matthews, Markieff Morris, and Marc Gasol. Four returning player from last year’s bench with a real point guard who can shoot and run the offense in Mills. That’s great continuity. Mills is the difference maker for the bench but it’s definitely the starting lineup that is the key in my opinion.
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Nice proposal with sufficient details.
Two comments:
1) I’d prefer getting JJ Reddick on vet min than Carmelo.
2) I’m sure AD will refuse to play 5 consistently. His philosophy is to not get banged up during the regular season by the opposing bigs! I think the Lakers admin has already yielded to him on that, in return for his acceptance to play 5 when needed in the playoffs.Othersie I’ll be happy to get Lowry and DeRozan.
But I might prefer it if we can get Lonzo and Hield instead. Can we work the numbers for that and compare? I think Lonzo’s youth and ability to playmake are attractive to me. And he has improved his shooting a lot!
And Hield is the best 3 point shooter in the NBA. I think we might be able to get Hield for Kuz, Trezz and the ’21 (first rd) pick, and get Lonzo for KCP, THT and the ’26 pick (by making the Pels settle on the ’24 pick from before). Fill the rest with vet mins, including Dwight.Finally, I can think of a three star Lakers team which will be better than either of these scenarios. And that would be spearheaded by Bron, AD and Beal. If that’s possible, that would be my first choice by a mile, and I hope Rob is thinking about it now!
Thanks for the hard work you’ve put in.
Dean-
Hey, Dean, thanks for reading and commenting.
I would be up for J.J. Reddick and assume he is still capable of lighting it up.
It will be interesting to see how much center AD plays this year. You may be right but I also think AD may understand that he will have to play more center for the Lakers to win now. And if the Lakers are planning to move LeBron to the 4 and AD to the 5, as Stein says, then you can be sure that plan has already been run by LeBron and AD. I have my fingers crossed but frankly will believe it when I see it. But it’s the right move.
I love the idea of Lonzo and Buddy and would be up for that. Fits Michael’s younger rather than older, which I don’t disagree with as long as we’re not talking about 22-year old point guards with 1.57 assists to turnover ratio.
Lonzo and Buddy vs. Kyle and DeMar? I still think Kyle and DeMar are better and won’t cost millions in luxury taxes. But give me either and I would be a happy camper. Lots of good options. Will be a game of musical chairs. I’ll work out the cost of that lineup and post it later.
Yeah, calling Kyle and DeMar superstars is a stretch for sure and Beal or a true superstar Big Three would probably be better. However, I do love the idea of Lowry and Bullock providing the 3-point shooting takes and makes and DeMar getting clutch midrange buckets to close games.
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Have to admire your number crunching LT. While this looks and feels like the longest of longshots it’s within the realm of numerical reality. I always have a hard time seeing guys who are in their prime (DeRozan, Mills, Bullock) willingly walk away from potentially more money. They don’t go into the offseason wondering “How can I get myself on the Lakers and team up with ‘Bron and AD?” They wonder how many 0’s will be at the end of a number, what their role will be if it’s a new team and then assess the roster to see if they think they can carry it across the line. You don’t get as good as DeMar is by not believing you don’t have all the tools necessary to change the title fortunes of a team single-handidly.
As you noted, the Spurs/Laker animosity is real. Very difficult to see them helping us in any way but if they covet those 2 players I suppose it’s possible. I think they’d rather trade with Mars than us but seeing as Mars doesn’t have a team in the Association they may be forced to dance with the devil, as it were.
The part where I actually feel like this bogs down a little is in the role-players all accepting that little money. Kieff fielded better offers last season and I expect he will again. Back to back vet minimums feels unlikely but then you can just play the “Who Wnats the Vet Min to play in LA” game and see what comes out at the end. Alex will get more than $5 mil tossed his way, is he that all in on the Lakers? Maybe, maybe that Man Scultping deal is enough to keep him hoping for an endorsement or two elsewhere? Those guys will never see LeBron money and need to max out the money when they can. AC has his ring, he won’t ever have to field the Barkley question now and his skillset is difficult to replace.
I like that you have us keeping the pick in this particular scenario which I also believe we will do. There has to be some form of team building every season, it is possible to be in win now mode and not utterly sacrifice the future of the team.
The final critique I have comes back to my philosophy that you only hard cap for a bona fide superstar. These guys are All Stars, DeRozan could still find another level from three since he’s such a good shooter and free throw shooter. Lowry could find the fountain of youth but neither really fills out the superstar resume’. The restrictions you impose by hard capping will make it really difficult to tweak the roster should it fall flat on it’s face. The only meaningful contracts are all the players you went all in for and if they under-perform on the Lakers who would want to fork over players of impact for that type of return? You can’t participate in the buy out market (which I strongly suspect will feature Rondo). The hard cap isn’t the worst thing that can happen but it certainly makes it easier to move talent at the trade deadline, participate in the buyout market and retain our own free agents.
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Thanks for reading and commenting, Jamie.
Yeah, it’s so easy to spend OPM. In this case, it’s the players’ money more than the team’s money since the Lakers would be hardcapped. But both players have indicated they understand at this point in their career they need to be willilng to take less.
Lowry is said to be looking for 3-years at $20 to $25 million and DeMar has said he would take a discount but not how much from the $27M he made with Spurs last season. Estimates of his market value have been around $17 million. That’s what I based my S&T values on. And that only gets us to 12 players.
I do think both Lowry and DeRozan will be interested in Lakers. I also think obtaining both of them makes total sense. Lowry’s high volume, high percentage 3-point shooting and the Lakers decision (hopefully) to move LeBron and AD to the 4 and 5 open the door to include an elite midrange scrorer like DeMar. We know there’s a place for that kind of player on the Lakers if they solve their shooting woes, which Bullock and Lowry would do.
I’m not so sure that role players are going to want more other than Caruso, who deservs more but is also helped immensely by playing with LeBron and THT, whom the Lakers are going to take care of because of Klutch. The other guys will be fine with the minimum.
Remember it’s only the minimum salary of a 2-year vet player that is charged to a team’s salary cap. The rest of the scheduled pay that’s dependent on the numbers of years played is paid by the league and not charged against the team’s salary cap. And the minimum salaries are prorated, which is why the Lakers will have no problem adding minimum players from buyout market although they won’t be able to pay more than the minimum.
I’m keeping the pick because this is a deep draft and there are some excellent prospects out there and the pick is cheaper than a vet minimum player. I did give up THT rather than the shooter because he’s key to getting Lowry and I worry about his 3-point shooting. I don’t believe Lowry is Steve Nash 2.0. He still is playing and shooting like the future HOFer he is.
I generally agree with your don’t hardcap unless it’s for a superstar but when I look at the starting five and reserve five in this lineup, I see a dramatically better shooting and scoring team that hasn’t given up much at all on the defensive end.
Yes, it will be difficult to tweak the lineup during the season but the strategy is to upgrade the starting lineup but keep the reserves together except with a replacement for the missing Rondo, which is what going after Patty Mills would provide. While Big Four is great for the title, the Lakers would still have a legitimate Superstar Big Three with Kyle Lowry. In fact, there Big Three would all have won championships in the last three years.
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Lowry and Derozan aren’t even stars, much less superstars. They’d have never made the ASG in the west. The teams results in the absence of Lebron and AD with those two may have been a game or two better, possibly worse with Lowry’s tendency to get nicked up too.
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Aloha, while your trades work on paper there are too many moving parts for it to really work. The first problem the NBA minimum roster is 13. So you need to add at least an undrafted rookie. You can only suit 12 for a game so perhaps that what you are thinking. Next Caruso will be gone at 5 mil. His market value is full MLE. This will be his first big contract and I have a hard time believing he will take a nearly 5 mil discount. An even bigger issue is a trade with the Spurs. Pop is still pissed off over the Pau trade. When we tried to trade for Kawai he basically asked for all of our players and draft picks forever and ever. And that was a guy that helped them win a championship. Like Kawai Derosen wants to go home but I can’t see Pop doing him any favors. We will also have competition for ring chasers. There several teams that be seen as contenders so there will be MLE money available for a lot of them.
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LOL. OK, I’ll keep going deeper into the rabbit hole.
I actually think the Lakers need to have at least 14 players on the roster so they need to save $3.4 million from Lowry, Bullock, or DeRozan for the plan to really work.
As for Caruso, he would be smart to take what the Lakers offer because he’s much better fit for playing with LeBron on the Lakers than anywhere else. He’ll sign for a home town discount and he’s not the untouchable that you and his GOAT fans seem to believe he is. Grasss won’t be greener for him somewhere else.
The only way this trade works is if Kyle and DeMar want it to work. If they do, I don’t see Masai or Pops wanting to get in the way of they’re going to the Lakers, especially if they’re getting two good players for their star rather than losing them for nothing in free agency.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreThere’s a reason why more than half of the teams in the NBA opted to be hardcapped this past season. While hardcapping limits what a team can spend on salaries for the season, it also gives teams other advantages.
The first advantage is hardcapped teams can sign-and-trade for other teams’ free agents. For teams like the LA Lakers who don’t have cap space, sign-and-trades are the only way they can acquire a high priced free agent. The Lakers’ priority this summer is to find a ‘difference-making playmaker.’ Since the top point guards this summer will be free agents, the Lakers may have to accept being hardcapped to land the elite playmaker they covet.
The second advantage is hardcapped teams get the full $9.5 million MLE to sign one or more free agents from other teams. The full MLE gives the Lakers a huge competitive advantage versus teams that are not hardcapped. Non-hardcapped teams only get the $5.9 million taxpayer MLE or the $4.9 million room MLE so the Lakers would be able to offer the best MLE candidates a greater annual salary than non-hardcapped teams can offer.
Landing an elite veteran point guard via sign-and-trade and a deadeye 3-point shooting guard or small forward via the full MLE could give the Lakers two starters superior to any players available if not hardcapped.
What makes being hardcapped a smart strategy for teams without cap space is the access to star free agent players. Sign-and-trades and the full MLE are powerful tools to accelerate building a caliber championship team.
The Lakers’ top sign-and-trade point guard target is Kyle Lowry, whom they tried to trade for at the deadline. Lonzo Ball, Chris Paul, Devonte Graham, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Derrick Rose are also sign-and-trade candidates. The Lakers’ top point guard trade target is Malcolm Brogdon, whom the Pacers have now put on the trade block. Russell Westbrook, Kemba Walker, Collin Sexton, and Terry Rozier are other point guards available via trade.
The Lakers’ top shooting guard candidate for the MLE is the Hornets’ Malik Monk, an unrestricted free agent sharpshooter. Other shooting guards for the MLE are Victor Oladipo, Alex Burks, Terrence Davis, and J.J. Redick. The Lakers’ top small forward target for the MLE is the Pelicans’ Josh Hart. Will Barton, Josh Hart, Furkan Korkmaz, Kelly Oubre, Kent Bazemore, Otto Porter, Jr., and Reggie Bullock are other small foward MLE candidates.
Being hardcapped would be worth it if the Lakers could sign-and-trade for Kyle Lowry and then sign a second quality starter like Malik Monk or Josh Hart with the full MLE. The #22 pick also becomes valuable if hardcapped.
There are severe limits to what a team can do if hardcapped. A sign-and-trade for Kyle Lowry or any free agent cannot exceed $25 million per year or the Lakers might not be able to re-sign Caruso and Horton-Tucker.
There’s a misconception teams can build better, deeper rosters by paying luxury taxes rather than being hardcapped. The reality is luxury taxes are structured so that progressive penalties rapidly limit what teams can do. Should the Lakers traded for Russell Westbrook, the annual salaries of LeBron, AD, Russ, Gasol, eight players for the vet minimum, and Deng’s $5 million waive-and-stretch total $142.0 million or close to the tax apron.
The luxury tax bill for using the taxpayer $5.9 million MLE to add a 13th player would be expensive. The total luxury taxes would cost the Lakers $12.5 million, bringing the annual pay for that player to $18.4 million. From there, the taxes become even more exorbitant. Adding 14th and 15th players who earn just the veteran minimum salary of $1.7 million would cost the Lakers another $15 million in taxes to completely fill out the roster.
The bottom line is there are advantages and disadvantages for teams willing to be hardcapped or pay luxury taxes. Which route a team chooses will depend on the specific roster needs and financial landscape of the team.
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To hard cap or not to hard cap? While the concensus of most Lakers fans is not to hard cap, the decision whether or not to hard cap is not a slam dunk either way. It depends on whether the players you need are available via trade or only via free agency. For teams like the Lakers, who don’t have cap space, access to elite free agents can often swing the pendulum in favor of hard capping just to get access to the Kyle Lowrys and Lonzo Balls.
If the Lakers can work out a sign-and-trade for Kyle Lowry, that would be my top priority even though it would hard cap us. Besides getting the best ‘affordable’ point guard prospect, we would also be able to offer the full $9.5M MLE. In other words, accepting being hard capped could result in the Lakers landing two better players than if they went the luxury tax route.
What will the Lakers do? It will depend on who really becomes available. If they can get Lowry, then hard cap. If they can’t, then maybe go after Lonzo or try to work out a straight trade with the Pacers for Brogdon. While there are challenges, there are also multiple pathways and players for the Lakers to pursue this summer whether they choose to be hard capped or not.
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Kelly Oubre. Anyone? By the way, Tom, great analysis. Making it easier for me to understand the nuances of the trade jigsaw puzzle.
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Thanks, Buba. It may not be rocket science but it definitely has its own set of complications. And I would love to be able to sign Oubre for the full MLE.
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Can’t see a way hard capping us helps us. Feud with Kuzma and all I’d rather keep Schroeder and look to trade him. mid-season. The only hard cap scenario I feel like I can get behind is one where Caruso and THT take deals elsewhere the Lakers don’t want to match. Since the benefit of retaining our free agents is that we can push into tax territory if that path closes to us. Then we would almost have to be open to the idea of using the Schroeder/Harrell S&T to restock the pond, as it were.
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LOL. You need to open your eyes. There are good reasons NOT to hardcap but there are also good reasons TO hardcap, including having access to more and better players and getting the full MLE.
Whether the Lakers hardcap or not will depend on availability of players. If they can S&T for Lowry, then they would gladlyi accept the hard cap and use the full MLE to sign a second star like DeRozan or Tucker. If they can’t get Lowry, chances are they will go after Russ in a trade and accept heavy luxury taxes.
It’s about who the Lakers can get more than whether or not it’s better to hard cap or pay luxury taxes.
I could see a scenario where we kept Dennis and traded him at the deadline but only if we couldn’t move him in a S&T. That’s a scenario we don’t want to happen because it means we couldn’t find the playmaker we wanted and are just kicking the can down the road.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreIf any Lakers news this offseason deserved a Woj Bomb, it was Mark Stein’s report that the Lakers covet a “difference-making playmaker who would allow James and Davis to spend more time at power forward and center.”
This is blockbuster news for the Lakersverse. If true, Stein’s report basically says the Lakers are considering abandoning what has been a two-year campaign to accommodate Anthony Davis’ preference not to play the five. While Davis’ best position is the five and the Lakers’ best lineups are with him at the five, Los Angeles finally appears to be ready to commit to James and Davis playing the 4 and 5 in both the regular season and the playoffs.
So why the change in strategy, a move that obviously has to have LeBron James’ and Anthony Davis’ approval as well as the Lakers’ front office and coaching staffs, and how will that impact the team’s offseason moves?
WHAT POSITIONS HAVE LEBRON AND AD BEEN PLAYING?
If Mark Stein’s report proves to be correct, moving LeBron James to the 4 and Anthony Davis to the 5 represents a dramatic and stunning strategic change in how the Lakers will utilize their two superstars next season.
In his three Lakers seasons, James has spent 43% of his regular season minutes and 46% of his playoff minutes at point guard with only 11% of his regular season minutes and 0% of playoff minutes at power forward.
Meanwhile, Davis has played 71% of his regular season minutes and 47% of his playoff minutes at power forward and just 29% of his regular season minutes and 53% of his playoff minutes as a Laker playing center.The Lakers are now considering making a radical lineup change for the upcoming NBA season by having LeBron James move from point guard to power forward and Anthony Davis move from power forward to center.
WHAT’S BEHIND THE SUDDEN CHANGE IN STRATEGY?
After spending most of last regular season and playoffs actively avoiding LeBron at the four or AD at the five, what happened to suddenly cause the Lakers to decide to change course and embrace a James/Davis four/five?
The easiest explanation is the Lakers know they do not have the cap space or trading chips to transform the current roster to championship caliber so they smartly decided to take better advantage of the personnel they have. The James/Davis small ball lineup is clearly the Lakers best lineup. They just need to add an elite point guard so LeBron could move to the four and rethink how to prevent AD from getting injured so he can play the five.
The Lakers know small ball is the future of the league and moving LeBron to the four and AD to the five will optimize their superstars and make it easier for them to add the shooters and defenders they need to win the title.
HOW WILL THE CHANGE IMPACT LAKERS’ OFFSEASON?
The biggest challenge the Lakers will have converting to a James/Davis small ball lineup for next season is finding a ‘difference-making playmaker’ to replace LeBron James at point guard so he can move to power forward.
A starting lineup with LeBron at the four and AD at the five also opens up an opportunity for the Lakers to add a bigger 3&D wing player like PJ Tucker, who can shoot the corner three and defend high-scoring twos and threes. Tucker would be the perfect player for the Lakers to target as their starting three. Signing him would give the Lakers three starting front court players who could guard all five positions at all three levels of the court.
Finally, whom the Lakers start at shooting guard will depend on whom they acquire to start at the point. If they acquire a point guard who’s a volume deadeye 3-point shooter, then they might survive with THT at the two.
WHY WILL THE LAKERS SMALL BALL LINEUP BE BETTER?
By redeploying their two superstars, the Los Angeles Lakers found a path to rebuild their roster to championship caliber despite not having open cap space for free agents or trading chips to pull off mega deals for elite players.
Starting James at the four and Davis at the five not only takes advantage of the front court pairing the Lakers used to win their 17th NBA championship in last year’s bubble but opens up opportunities for more 3-point shooting. The Lakers have a better chance of finding an elite 3&D wing to start at the three alongside LeBron and AD at the four and five than finding a center to play alongside Davis that wouldn’t be played off the court in the playoffs.
By committing to the James/Davis front court that won the championship, the Lakers have given themselves a chance to roll out their best potential lineup with both of their superstars finally playing their ideal positions.
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I still feel like I’m dreaming and am waiting for confirmation that the Lakers are really going to move LeBron to the four and AD to the five. I mean it totally makes sense. At 36, we don’t want to have LeBron get all the wear and tear of bringing the ball up and running the offense and being the primary playmaker. Not at 36. Nor if we can get a legitimate point guard who can shoot the three, get shots for himself and teammates, take care of the ball, and defend both guard positions.
And I’ve been on the AD at the five train from the day we traded for him from the Pelicans. You know these rumors would not be out there unless the Lakers had talked to AD about playing the five and gotten his and LeBron’s approval for the changes. Finding a 3&D small forward is going to be a lot easire than finding a stretch center who can also defend the perimeter, which we don’t really need since we have Anthony Davis.
At any rate, I’m eagerly waiting for the other shoe to drop and can’t wait for the draft and free agency. If true, Stein’s report is the biggest BOMB to hit the Lakersverse this offseason. By repositioning LeBron and AD, the Lakers dramatically changed how the Lakers will play going forward and what they will be trying to do this summer via trade and free agency.
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I don’t read this as “Lakers abandoning centers” but rather “AD willing to play center like he did prior to the shortened off-season”. As an old NBA beat reporter for the NYT and ESPN I’m sure Marc has his sources but he’s not NBA news ground zero, either. Ill be happy if we bolster the 5 with a defensive-minded center, keep Gasol and get AD to play 20-30% of his minutes at the 5 during the regular season. same for LeBron. We can go skilled for roughly a quarter-ish of an NBA game and Ill be satisified that were both preserving them for the playoffs but also letting that line up generate chemistry. One thing that really needs more attention for this to work is having plus-sized players at other positions. That means no Kemba or Lowry (and if one is hinest both are out of this summer’s price range). In short, I think this signals a willingness to repeat what worked in the banner run and not a whole new Laker world.
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Ok Mr. One Source Newsletter… Lol. I knew as soon as that newsletter came out it would occupy your summer. Enjoy the speculating, we’ll see how we’re all feeling when we use the Schroeder trade exception to sign Drummond to a huge deal for 5 years. THAT’S being a realist, er, Debbie Downer. In honesty I don’t know one Laker fan that wouldn’t be happy if AD played more center. But until I see him there in the starting line up and for most of the game in the majority of the games I’ll temper my expectations for the revolution, thank you very much.
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Aloha, okay first of all, every Laker fan hopes this is true, myself included. It’s our best line up. However, you are not suddenly going to take the ball out of LeBarons hands. Nor should you. I still don’t see a path to a big time play making point guard. And with LeBron, I don’t see a need to. I think they will look for a scoring PG. I still see us resigning Dennis. He wasnt terrible. He had 2 bad playoff games but he 2 good ones that is over looked. If he works out great. If not, he’s another contract we can trade. If AD does move to the 5 I look for them to try and upgrade scoring at the 2 and 3. Tucker or Batum could both be targets for the 3 in free agency. And Beasley or Buddy could be trade targets.
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Here’s a question: What percentage of the game is workable for this to work, based on match ups of course? I would say that this would work for 30-40% of the game, at best. I’m not so much worried about AD (who picks up knick knack injuries no matter what) but LeBron whom has had injuries that devastated our playoff chances in 2 out of 3 seasons as a Laker. Do we really want LeBron hanging with players his size or is it preferable for him to bully guards and small forwards? This is where keeping Kuzma comes into play, you can’t play Kyle against centers, we saw how disasterously that went. But he can hang with a lot of the 4’s in the Association which makes trading him more of a concern since it’s unlikely we’d be bringing back a large player in the doing. Those are my larger concerns, more on the LBJ side than the AD one. I’ve come to a peaceful place in regards to AD getting hurt and sitting out a few games. Just need to avoid major injuries.
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This is where I question the choice to pursue another high cost lead guard. Your notion of going hard for Randle, holding into ‘Kieff (although his streaky offense is a huge issue) and the like makes so very much more sense than wasting time going for Ball. I think we could put ourselves in great position by considering the following. Call the Knicks and gauge their interest in a trade for Randle involving Kuzma and KCP, if they are interested in Dennis we can S&T him and add pieces as needed. In reality I think this trade would be more likely later in the season and see if the Knicks are the same Cinderella story or might be coming back down to Earth. The more I think about it the more inclined I am to sign Schroeder to a deal and keep our talent in-house without hard capping
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreBetween two Covid colored seasons, the rise of a new generation of stars, and a looming changing of the guard in the NBA, this offseason may be the time for the Lakers to ask Anthony Davis to play small ball center full time.
While Davis at the five might be a delicate subject to discuss right now since his injury susceptibility was a big part of why the Lakers aren’t in the Finals, AD at the five is the ultimate weapon around which the team should build. The Lakers have major decisions to make this offseason. They need to catch up. The competitive landscape has changed. Their reign as champions is over. They’re no longer the favorites. What’s worked may need changing.
The Lakers need to sit down with Anthony Davis and explain to him that it’s crazy for the team not to play him at the five since that’s his best position and since fivesomes with him playing center have been their best lineups. We didn’t win the NBA championship last season playing Anthony Davis at the four. We won because AD dominated at both ends playing the five. For some reason, we seem to have conveniently forgotten the reason we won.
The Lakers should stop accommodating Anthony Davis’ preference to play the four and do what’s best for the team. Here are five reasons the Lakers need to build their offense and defense around AD as a small ball center.
1. AD at Small Ball Center Is the Lakers’ Best Lineup.
Let’s start with the obvious, NBA pundits all agree Anthony Davis’ best position is small ball center and the Los Angeles Lakers’ best lineups are when Anthony Davis plays small ball five rather than power forward.
While Davis prefers to play the four due to concern over his susceptiblity to injuries because of the physicality of playing center, he’s clearly said he has no problem playing the five when needed, especially during the playoffs. Yet the Lakers continue to avoid playing Davis at the five. Last season, he played center 10% during the regular season and 20% in the playoffs, down from 40% in the regular season and 60% in the playoffs the year before.
Rather than continue to accomodate Davis’ preference to play the four, the Lakers should be sit down with him and figure out how they optimize his time as a small ball center while limiting the physicality of playing the five.
2. AD at Small Ball Center Would Modernize the Lakers.
Aside from the lunacy of not playing your best lineup, AD at small ball center would modernize the Lakers both offensively and defensively. Davis is the modern offensive and defensive center the Lakers need to win.
Offensively, Anthony Davis is the perfect modern center. He can dominate in the low post, score at will with midrange jumpers, and stretch the floor and create space for himself and his teammates with his 3-point shooting. Defensively, he can not only protect the rim but has the speed, quickness, and mobility to switch, rotate, and defend smaller players out to the 3-point line. Unlike traditional low post centers, he can’t be played off the floor.
The Lakers need to stop wasting time and resources on short term rent-a-centers who get played off the floor in the playoffs when they already have the league’s best modern offensive and defensive center in Anthony Davis.
3. AD at Small Ball Center Can Be Protected From Physicality.
Once the Lakers commit to AD at small ball center, there are specific moves they can make to enable Davis to avoid overly physical matchups against bully ball centers like Joel Embiid, Deandre Ayton, or Nikola Jokic.
Rather than spinning wheels trying to find a center would be a good fit next to Davis at the four, the Lakers should focus on finding a power forward like Julius Randle or PJ Tucker with the size and mentality to guard big centers. The Lakers should also adjust their defensive schemes to double team and trap bully ball centers to prevent them from overpowering Davis one-on-one, which is the only way to stop superstar centers like Embiid or Jokic.
The answer to concerns about AD getting injured playing the five is to pair him with a bully ball stretch four capable of defending centers and/or give him help in the form of traps and double aganst the tougher matchups.
4. AD at Small Ball Center Simplifies Roster Building Process.
The Lakers need shift their roster building stretegy to focus on players to complement Anthony Davis at small ball five rather than stretch four. They need a bully ball stretch four to go with AD rather than an old school five.
There are more power forwards available who can bang with big bully ball dominating centers like Embiid and Jokic than modern defensive centers like Davis who can’t be played off the floor for slow foot speed and mobility. The Lakers already have a proven candidate in Markieff Morris who played stretch four to AD’s small ball five in the playofffs but should be looking to add more elite 3&D fours like Julius Randle, PJ Tucker, or Jae Crowder.
The NBA is a matchup league and the Lakers need power forwards who can physically bang with bully ball centers to free up Anthony Davis to play the small ball five position and reach his ultimate ceiling as an NBA player.
5. AD at Small Ball Center Is Where the League Is Heading.
The Lakers have spent two years generally ignoring their most lethal lineup in an attempt to live up to the promises they made to recruit Anthony Davis. That decision is like a giant cargo ship that’s hard to stop and turn around.
But that’s exactly what the Lakers need to do at this point in time because we wasted time and opportunities building a roster around the foundation strategy that Anthony Davis was going to play the four and not the five. Whom we drafted, signed in free agency, and traded were all part of that grand plan. Now it’s time for the Lakers to rethink that plan and make AD at small ball five the franchise’s foundation strategy starting this summer.
Anthony Davis will take the baton from LeBron James as the face of the Lakers’ franchise sometime over the next few years. The Lakers need to commit to taking full advantage of his unique skills as a small ball center.
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The more I look at the extremely limited minutes Anthony Davis played at the five this season, the more I’m convinced that the Lakers’ front office has talked itself into believing that Anthony Davis should play the four full time going forward with little time at the five. That’s what everything is telling me right now.
AD only played 10% of the time at the five during the last regular season and just 20% in the playoffs, dramatic reductions in minutes at the five compared to 40% and 60% during the Lakers championship season, although some of that was due to injuries.
Then there is the crazy fascination the Lakers have with Andre Drummond, promising him he would get starter role and minutes if he joined the Lakers. Obviously, Drummond was another move by the Lakers designed to accomodate AD’s prefernce to play the four. The rumblings about re-signing Drummond only confirm the Lakers’ position of not wanting Davis to have to play the five anytime.
Frankly, if you look at how dominant the Lakers were in the bubble and how good Anthony Davis was playing small ball five in the playoffs, it’s lunacy that the Lakers have bought into the idea that their best path forward is for AD to play the four and not the five even though it’s his and the team’s best option.
Before they make any big offseason moves, the Lakers need to get their own priorities straightened out. Davis is willing to play the five and the Lakers need to sit down and work out a way he can do that without getting worn out or injured because of the physicality. That’s a problem that can and should be be solved this offseason. It’s the big decision the Lakers need to make.
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There you go, Tom. Great analysis. A bruising power forward who can stretch the floor coupled with AD at the five will do the job. However, the task before us now is to gauge the availability of such power forwards. Forwards like Randle will be hard to pry from their teams. I will let Rob work his magic on those things. Also, the problem I sense with AD is both psychological and physical. Psychologically he may be affected by rash of injuries he had to deal with in the past and that may take away an edge from him. Physically, his frame will not handle the rigors of banging down low. That is why having a bruising power forward will help ease that burden.
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Thanks, Buba. Anybody who can’t see there is a changing of the guard coming in the NBA both with teams and stars is blink. The last two Covid colored seasons may have accelerated the process rather than holding it back.
I think the Lakers need to decide to play AD at the five and then adjust accordingly. The biggest challenge every team now seems to face is having a center who can protect the rim who can’t be played off the floor. Right now, other than superstars like Embiid and Jokic, who can more than keep pace offensively with anything they give up defensively against a stretch five opponent, there is no center who is the prototype modern offensive AND defensive center other than Anthony Davis. That’s too great a weapon to waste or limit it’s usage.
There are lots of ways to proteck AD from injury while playing the five against overly physical low post centers, including having a bully ball four like PJ Tucker guard the center and doubling and trapping the center to force him to pass. The Lakers cannont continue to leave their biggest weapon at both ends of the court unused or underused. Time to sit down with AD, figure this thing out, and find ways to let AD play his best position and the Lakers go with their best lineups. Once that decision is made, we can then target the players we need to make the AD at small ball center lineups work.
Do I expect the Lakers to do this. Probably not. Based on what we hear, they’re more likely to spend the MLE on re-signing Andre Drummond to be the full-time center so Anthony Davis can play power forward. Not only is this a mistake because they should have AD play the five but also because Drummond is the wrong center if they go that route, He can’t protect the rim, defend the perimeter, finish at the rim, shoot the three ball, or give the Lakers any of the things Davis can.
At worst, if the Lakers want a full-time center, then go for one that can’t be played off the court like Nerlens Noel, who can protect the rim and defend all 5 positions at all 3 levels. He also has vertical gravity on offense that Drummond doesn’t. Just can’t stetch defenses with his 3-point shooting.
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Here’s the flip side: it’s likely, highly likely, that they have an agreement with both AD and his reps that they will carry a center on the roster for the regular season. Davis, dealing with a serious calf/Achilles injury, will not be re-thinking his declaration of wanting to be a power forward anytime soon. Prior to the injuries we were rolling with the team last season: one of the top records in the Association, top ten offense and defense. So, if the goal is to prevent injuries, the notion he should switch and bang with players like Ayton, Lopez, Howard, The Joker, etc. is flawed. At least, and this is the other major counter point, during the regular season.
I get the logic behind this and it’s the same on the Bucks when you see Giannis at the 5: they go from slow to lethal. Suddenly the entire floor opens up for Giannis to drive to the hole and dish to shooters, the defense needs to be better on the rebounding front because, well, lotta little dudes out there.
AD at the 5 is a playoff weapon, at least for the duration of this contract. I just don’t see a world where he amends that stance unless we’re in danger of missing the playoffs entirely. The man heroed through his injury this season and should not have. He obviously has a strong desire to win and, like many-many-many pro athletes, is determined to do it “his way”. I respect that, mainly because he’s willing to adapt in the playoffs when called upon to do so. The annual “LakerTom calling for AD to man the 5” article changes none of that.
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I sometimes wonder why I keep trying when people comment but don’t even read the article in its entirety and then back claiming I want Davis to “switch and bang with players like Ayton, Lopez, Howard, The Joker.” Frankly, that’s pretty insulting.
What I suggested is that we have a backup defensive center like Nerlens Noel or a power forward like PJ Tucker to defend Embiid, Jokic, and Ayton or trap or double him to force the ball out of his hands and prevent him from abusing Davis. Two thirds of the center matchups around the league aren’t any huge burden for AD to guard the center.
You say the Lakers want Davis just to play the five in the playoffs but that’s not what we saw in the playoffs. We saw Davis hardly play any minutes at the five. While he was injured, we saw the same pattern as we saw all regular season, which was Gasol, Harrell, or Drummond played 90% of the minutes compared to just 60% of the minutes by McGee and Howard. That sounds more like a coach and team that doesn’t want to play AD at the five at all. Why else all the talk about re-signing Drummond. All this despite Davis stated over and over he has no problem playing the five when needed.
Frankly, I’m not sure where all the push is coming from. Maybe your glasss half empty crystal ball. Davis continually says he has no problem playing the five but you now claim inside info that it is his camp that it’s “highly likely, that they have an agreement with both AD and his reps that they will carry a center on the roster for the regular season.” That’s breaking new that even Woj and Shams haven’t gotten yet. Thanks for sharing.
Lakers need to wake up because AD should be playing the center. It’s his best position.
AD at the five is the Lakers best lineup. And the Lakers can make roster and matchup moves to prevent playing the five being a higher risk of injury than playing the four. Right now, the Lakers aren’t saying or doing things that tell us they’re going to play AD at the five at all, whether regular season or playoffs. That’s the reality they’re heading into this offseason with which is going to lead to more mistakes trying to find a center so AD can hide at the five.-
I read it and agree that we’ll carry a center, lol. He’s not going to play at the 5 in the regular season dude. You wrote this exact article last summer and I think the summer we got AD as well. What has changed in that time? Nothing except Davis is older, more under contract and played even less center than in year 1. Don’t get so riled when people express common sense opinions dude… read the writing in the wall and stop the fantasy. He. Does. Not. Want. To. Play. Center. Bit until a playoff match up calls for it. Same goes fir Giannis. You’re better off searching for the perfect stretch five than knocking on this door over and over.
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Oh and Davis was injured on a non-contact play that basically ended his season. Riiiight…that changed, too, Suns in 7, lol.
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Sorry didn’t mean to be unfriendly or so prickly. I’m just not sure AD doesn’t want to play the five. Always a thorney subject for me.
I’m also not sure playing the five is a reason AD should get more injured, especially if we avoid dangerous matchups except in the playoffs.
Anyway, I doubt the Lakers are going to change. LOL. Just frustrating knowing we will have to do more to win than we should have.
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This was his introductory media session as a Laker. I’m sure if I gave it a half hearted effort I could find some NOLA quotes, too. The way I read that, and the way the Lakers have operated since trading for him re-affirms in my opinion, is he’s down to win a game or two in the regular season with some minutes at the 5 and the playoffs. These are his words.
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Good write up although not particularly revelatory. Everybody knows what it SHOULD be, but like in every other aspect of life..it ain’t necessarily what’s gonna happen. Dude simply doesn’t wanna spend alotta time playing center, especially during the regular season. So that’s the baseline the Lakers FO has to start from.
The crazy part to me is that his recent spate of injuries hasn’t been the result of banging with the big boys. Seems like it’s always from him being on the move driving, slicing, cutting, etc. Hell..he got hurt shooting a fallaway 3 and bumping into the damn scoring table.
Bigger picture is what’s gonna happen when LeBron is gone and AD is thust into the leadership role. No matter where AD plays now, LBJ is gonna make it work because he’s just that kinda force of nature. Without that all time great catalyst on board, I really wonder what we do to avoid turning into the AD-era Pelicans.
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Good points, Mongo. Not sure where all this no AD at the five is coming from. Is it AD? Or is it what the Lakers think AD wants and are hesitant from demanding anything from him? Is it the coach? Or the PBO? Or a secret agreement like Jamie claims? I’ll bet nobody has had the common sense or balls to sit down and talk to Anthony about playing the five but with adjustments to limit the physicality.
After two years, I think the evidence is pretty clear to anybody who’s watched us play. We’re voluntarily handcuffing our team every night by refusing to play AD at the five. Those who think running it back is going to be enough are sorely misjudging how the bar to win the championship next season has been substantially raised by the Spurs and a new host of championship contenders.
I’d be satisfied if the Lakers would go out and get a legitimate center if they want to play AD at the four but so far they’re 0-5 as far as I am concerned with McGee, Howard, Gasol, Harrell, and Drummond. Get Myles Turner or Nerlens Noel. I’d be fine with one of them but the bungling rent-a-centers we’ve had the last two years can’t cut it and all ended up being played off the court.
Your point about when AD gets injured is also an issue with me because everybody assumes banging with the bigs is the danger. So don’t have AD guard those guys or double and trap them to prevent them from bullying him. They’re ways to limit the physicality and banging down low other than just not playing him there.
Finally, time for AD to get some balls and say I’ll play whereever the team needs me. If he really wants to take the mantle from LeBron, then he needs to be willing to do that and frankly, I think he is but we’re just not asking him to do it. Time to sit down and work this out before it’s too late. Only a couple years at best left in LeBron’s championship window. Let’s not waste them.
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I think it’s crazy to assume that all these conversations haven’t already been had numerous times with AD, his management team, LeBron, and within the organization. AD gives lukewarm responses to the media when asked about playing the 5 like “Sure I’ll do it of they need me to”. That ain’t him demanding to take the mantle and frankly I’ve begun to question if he has it in him.
I think the plan all along has been for him to play minimal time at the 5 during the season and then ramp it up for the playoffs. Worked perfectly for the Covid Cup and that’s why I don’t understand all the hate for McGee & Howard..they did exactly what they were brought in to do. These playoffs…not so much but dude was hurt so whatchu gonna do…
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Many conversations about role take place outside of media interviews, that doesn’t make them “secret” lol. But AD went one further and said it himself.
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I think he should play home games only during the regular season as the small ball 5, sitting out all road games and back-to-backs, with a minutes limit around 35, preferably less. Outside of two healthy seasons in New Orleans, the guys been made of glass. Treat him like Kawhi. Act accordingly.
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Thought provoking article, Tom! I enjoyed reading it. I agree with you on the desirability of AD playing 5. But the rub is he doesn’t seem to agree, at least not fully, and not during the regular season.
But I think a happy medium is possible. Convince AD to play 5 half the time 4 the other half. We need to get someone like Dwight Howard to take some pressure off of AD during the regular season. During the playoffs I’d play AD at the 5 80 percent of the time.
Mark Stein is right, in that AD is best at 5 and Bron is best at 4. So the most important task of us this free agency is to get an agile playmaker, like Lonzo. That will certainly unlock a lot of potential. We should be willing to give the Pels anyone but AD & Bron to get Lonzo, who’s a restricted FA. ‘d like us to get Lonzo (even at 22 M), Dwight (on vet min) and a pair of shooters on vet min (like Reddick, Svi).-
Thanks for reading and commenting, Dean. Until the Stein news, I’d been like a fisherman pissing into the wind advocating for AD at the five and expressing alarm at the stats showing the Lakers were minimizing rather than expanding AD at the five.
Who knows what the story is? There are so many questions and the supposed answers to them were all before AD won a championship playing the five, his recent injury which didn’t happen playing the five, and the Nets emergence as favorites.
I’m hoping AD has never demanded to not play the five. While he might prefer to play the four because he’s out on the floor more than in the post, would he prefer that over having a better chance to win. AD knows why we won #17.
Stein’s news is such a breath of fresh air that I’m excited about discussing it on tonight’s Lakers Fast Break podcast. Check it out, Dean. The Stein news is one of subjects for tonight after the game.
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There’s also the beauty of what LeBron at the 4 and AD at the 5 would have on the Lakers roster building process. It’s also by far our best defensive lineup. The LeBron and Anthony front court defense is so damn fast, quick, and athetlic. And they can dominate you at either end.
The big question is what happens at the three? Might Kuzma suddenly get an opportunity to start? Could that be part of the thinking about playing LeBron and AD up? While I think Kuz gets traded, I wouldn’t be angry if he stayed. In fact, I could see him playing the 3 or 2, where his size would be huge plus.
The second question is do the Lakers get hardcapped. What makes sense to me is part of the strategy behind LeBron at the 4 and AD at the 5 is it’s a way of making the team better by repositioning and optimizing your players. It’s not moving as many pieces, maintaining constinuity, but also saving money.
Lonzo’s such a great fit with Davis and it appears his improved shooting is for real both mechanically via the eye test and statistically but Lowry is a proven champion and matching ages with LeBron might be smarter than with AD for the next couple of years. Of course, the Lakers would like to do both.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreThe Lakers road back to championship contention depends on whether they chose to accept a hard cap by pursuing sign-and-trades for other team’s free agents or opt to pay luxury taxes by re-signing all of their own free agents.
There are advantages to being hardcapped, namely being able to sign-and-trade for other teams’ free agents and being able to use the full $9.5 million Mid-Level and the $3.7 million Bi-Annual Exceptions to sign free agents. But being hardcapped has consequences. The team’s total annual salaries cannot ever exceed $143 million, which greatly limits the trade and free agency opportunities the team can take advantage of during the season.
Declining to be hardcapped has advantages in that teams can go over the cap to re-sign their own free agents using various versions of Bird rights. That’s critical for the Lakers who have numerous free agents of their own. For big market teams like the Lakers with strong local revenues, going over the cap allows them more freedom to create deep and versatile rosters with the only penalty being a brutal luxury tax that could cost $25-$50 million.
So let’s take a look at the Lakers’ salary cap situation to see what roster building options they have should they decide to accept being hardcapped or commit to paying the luxury taxes and re-signing their own free agents.
1. The Los Angeles Lakers’ Options If Hardcapped.
LAKERS TRADE KCP & KUZMA FOR KYLE LOWRY Adding a third superstar like Kyle Lowry, whom the Lakers tried to trade for during the season, to go with LeBron James and Anthony Davis might be a sign-and-trade the Lakers might accept though it would hardcap them.
Let’s look at the Lakers’ salary cap numbers after the above proposed trade to see the impact of being hardcapped on their roster. Accepting Lowry in a sign-and-trade would hardcap the Lakers at $143 million for the season. The key is how much they have to pay for the third superstar. Paying Kyle Lowry $22.0 million per year for three years still allows the Lakers to keep everybody on their roster but Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell.
After trading Kuzma and KCP for Lowry, the Lakers would have four players under contract — James, Davis, Lowry, and Gasol — for $101.2 total salary, leaving them with $41.8 million under the hard cap to build out the roster. That’s enough to cover $10.0 million to re-sign THT, $9.0 million of the full MLE, $5.0 million to for Caruso, $1.9 million for McKinnie, $1.6 million for the #22 pick, $5.0 million for Deng, and $9.3 million for 6 roster spots.
LAKERS $143 M ILLION SALARY CAP SPENDING UNDER A HARD CAP Signing-and-trading Kuzma and KCP for another team’s free agent earning less than $22 million per year would enable the Lakers to bring back their own free agents other than Schroder and Harrell and pay minimal taxes.
2. The Los Angeles Lakers’ Options If Not Hardcapped.
LAKERS TRADE KUZMA, KCP, HARRELL, MCKINNIE, & PICK FOR ROZIER AND HIELD The Lakers might opt to avoid pursuing other teams’ free agents and being hardcapped and instead look to upgrade their roster by bringing back their own free agents and trading for players under contract with other teams.
Not being limited to total annual salaries under $143 million would allow the Lakers to go over the salary cap to trade for players under contract to other teams and to award deserved raises to re-sign their own free agents. The Lakers would have no limit to how far they go over the cap to re-sign key free agents of their own like Schroder, Horton-Tucker, and Caruso. The only penalty they would face would be an expensive luxury tax bill.
Here’s a breakdown of how the roster would look after the above proposed trade of Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell, and Alfonzo McKinnie for the Hornets Terry Rozier and the Kings Buddy Hield. The Lakers total salaries for adding Rozier and Hield and bringing back everybody but Shroder or Harrell would be $157.0 million, which would cost $33.3 million in luxury taxes and a total payroll of $190.3 million
LAKERS $157 MILLION SALARY CAP SPENDING UNDER SOFT CAP So letting Schroder and Harrell walk and focusing on trades for players under contract rather than sign-and-trades for free agents could also enable the Lakers to build a championship roster but would cost $50 million more.
The availablity of the ‘right’ player will determine whether the Lakers opt to go after other teams’ free agents and be hardcapped or re-sign their own free agents, trade for players under contract, and incur major luxury taxes.
The Lakers would be wise to eschew pursuing sign-and-trades for other teams’ free agents unless the player is a legitimate third superstar who earns less than $22 million per year to complement LeBron and AD. Otherwise, they would be smart to look to trade for high volume, high percentage 3-point shooting guards and bring back most of their own free agents even if it cost them $190 million rather than $143 million in salaries and taxes.
The competitive landscape of the league has changed dramatically since the Lakers won their Bubble Championship. The Lakers woud be smart to avoid chasing other teams’ free agents and becoming hardcapped at $143 million.
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With all the talk of the Lakers possibly looking to sign-and-trade for various star free agents like Kyle Lowry or Chris Paul, I took a close look at what their salary cap situation would be if they signed-and-traded for Kyle Lowry vs. trading for Terry Rozier and Buddy Hield, who are not free agents and wouldn’t hard cap the team at $143 million for the season. The results are extrememly interesting.
First, the hard cap situation. If the Lakers were to give Lowry a 3-year contract starting at $22 million per year, they would be able to bring back THT and Caruso with raises to $10 and $5 million respectively, guarantee McKinnie’s $1.9 million, sign their first round draft pick, and have amost all of their $9.5 million MLE to sign lower priced free agents while remaining under $143 million. Luxury taxes would only be $42,000.
Were the Lakers to target a more expensive free agent like Chris Paul who makes $44 million, they would not be able to re-sign THT or Caruso, guarantee McKinnie, keep their first round pick, or use any of their MLE. They would basically have to fill out their roster with vet minimum deals and might only be able to afford 13 or 14 roster players.
The better solution by far would be to avoid sign-and-trades for other team’s free agents, bring back their key free agents, and trade for a new starting backcourt like Rozier and Hield. In that case, the Lakers would have a salary cap of $157 million and a luxury tax bill of $33 million for a grand total payroll of $190 million, almost $50 million higher than if they were hardcapped.
Would the Lakers be willing to pay $50 million more for a better and deeper roster? If we believe Jeanie Buss and the Lakers understand that LeBron’s championship window is rapidly shrinking, the answer has to be yes. It’s not as bad as the tax situation is for the Warriors or Nets but it will be a strong third on the list of teams paying luxury taxes but the Lakers are clearly in a win now mode so bring it on.
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Been saying from the get-go we should avoid hard capping ourselves unless it is for an elite talent. Not many players fit that and/or will be available this summer. The best thing about re-signing most of our guys and not hard capping ourselves is that we can trade any of our players after the calendar year turns over. All contracts will be movable by mid to late December. I can’t see a scenario where being hard capped is an advantage.
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Could come down to whether the Lakers would prefer to have Kyle Lowry as their third star and not pay any luxury taxes or have a duo like Terry Rozier and Buddy Hield and pay $50 million more in payroll and taxes. That’s the $50 million question… Like I’ve said many times, the hard cap can be a safety net for the Lakers ownership to hide behind so they don’t overspend like the Warriors and Nets. We’ll see.
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I look at the 4 teams paying the luxury tax this season..GSW, Nets, Clippers, Bucks. All 4 are top contenders for the ring (GSW if Klay is healthy). It’s not overspending when it makes you better. I would hate to see Jeanie intentionally handicap us for a player like Kyle Lowry and also lose good, cost-friendly role players in the process. Uninformed Laker fans will probably give her a pass because the narrative will be “Hey, we spent all we could and reached the cap” but we know it isn’t the truth.
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Yeah, I’ve pretty much came to the same conclusion. The S&T only works for Lowry because of a $22M salary. Anything bigger than that will result in not being able to bring back THT or Caruso or having room to use the MLE. Better to avoid being hard capped.
Lakers need to put money behind the talk and spend the $50 million to really upgrade the roster if they want to compete for the title next season. The Bubble Roster would not be good enough for the competition we’ll face next season.
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There are better options out there so the real answer depends on what other teams do and who is actually available for the Lakers when the music stops. There are scenarios where trading for Lowry could be the Lakers best option. I hope we don’t have to resort to that and end up hardcapped but it depends on who’s available and at what price. Kyle Lowry would be a great addition to the Lakers much like Chris Paul was to the Suns in giving them a proven vet third star.
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It’s really starting to feel like this vast Lakers warchest is at least overstated. Despite the big TV deal, there’s all this infighting among the siblings grinding things down in the background. They also don’t have the multi-billion empires outside the association. I think they don’t spend money on stuff sometimes because it doesn’t make sense to them.
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Just hope they don’t go cheap on us rebuilding the roster this summer. LeBron’s window is closing. Now is the time to go all-in on winning #18.
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The guys from the Lakers Fast Break return for some NBA Observation as they share thoughts on the recent big-money extensions for Miami coach Erik Spoelstra and the Clipper’s Kawhi Leonard. Does this mean the Lakers will be opening up their wallet a little more as well? Plus after Toronto Raptors coach Darko Rajakovic’s huge rant after the Lakers game because of the fourth-quarter free throw disparity, we ponder if Darvin Ham will ever show that kind of energy if he remains as the guys on the sidelines for LA. We’re back talking some big $$$, and wondering if the Lakers are ready to go on a spending spree? Find out our thoughts on the latest Lakers Fast Break podcast!
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While it might appear that the Lakers’ chances of landing Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are slim, it’s hard to imagine the Toronto Raptors or the San Antonio Spurs not being willing to reward two players whose great careers were synonomous with their franchises’ success.
Both players are future Hall of Famers who are unrestricted free agents for whom the Raps and Spurs would get nothing if they signed anywhere as free agents. Toronto has already said they would help Kyle get to where he wants to go and I can’t believe the Spurs would not be willing to do the same for DeMar despite their hatred of the Lakers. It’s not like KCP and Harrell would not be great fits on the Spurs.
It’s hard to pinpoint what the Lakers or other teams are going to do because there are so many factors still in play. Ideally, the Lakers would somehow get Lowry, DeRozan, and Bullock to give up $3.4 million so the Lakers could add Trevor Ariza and DeMarcus Cousins to bring their roster to 14 active players. I have to think all three of them could see the huge potential to create a dynasty if the Lakers could add them to LeBron and AD.
At any rate, just another example of the kind of rosters the Lakers could build despite being hard capped. Eric Pincus’ comments about the Lakers possibly being willing to be hardcapped and their history of minimizing how much luxury taxes they are willing to play reinforce the idea that the Lakers might perfer to be hard capped rather than pay the kind of luxury taxes thast will be assessed agsinst the Warriors and Nets.