Lakerholics

The Lakers’ overtime win over the Spurs without James last night showed why trading for a third superstar in Russell Westbrook is going to pay off big for Los Angeles as it‘s the key to winning the non-LeBron minutes.

The NBA experts and pundits disapproved of the Lakers’ decision to trade for Russell Westbrook because he wasn’t the elite 3-point shooter the team needed to create spacing for superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. What they ignored was the impact Russell Westbrook as a third superstar could have on the Lakers’ single biggest weakness, which was winning the minutes and games when LeBron James was not on the court.

So let’s take a closer look at what may be the single most important thing about the Lakers’ bold and controversial decision to trade for Russell Westbrook and go all-in on creating their own Superstar Big Three.

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WHY WINNING NON-LEBRON MINUTES IS IMPORTANT

Since they signed James three years ago, the Lakers have yet to finish a season with a positive net rating for the time LeBron is not on the court. Even in the championship season, they lost the non-LeBron minutes.

LeBron was +2.4 points on the floor and -5.9 points off the floor for a -8.3 differential his first Lakers season and +9.0 point on the floor and -0.9 points off the floor for a 9.9 differential during the team’s championship season. The trend of the non-LeBron minutes being the Lakers’ Achilles heel continued last season as LeBron was +8.6 points on the floor and -2.0 points off the floor for a -10.6 differential, his worst as a Laker.

Last night, the Lakers got their first tangible return on their gamble that adding a third superstar like Russell Westbrook would be the key to eliminating their Achilles heel and winning the critical non-LeBron minutes. Winning without LeBron is a big deal. The Lakers have always had a strong positive net rating when LeBron plays. What chance do opponents have if the Lakers now also dominate the non-LeBron minutes?

That’s why winning without LeBron last night was important because the Lakers traded for Westbrook in the hope he would give them a legitimate third superstar, who could with AD win the non-LeBron minutes.

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HOW THIRD SUPERSTAR INSURES AGAINST INJURIES

It’s not a coincidence Rob Pelinka went all-in to acquire a third superstar after the Lakers’ lost LeBron James and Anthony Davis to injuries and suffered an embarrassing first round exit in the playoffs to the Suns.

Pelinka had seen how having three superstars had enabled the Brooklyn Nets to survive an injury plague after losing Kevin Durant for 37 games, James Harden for 36 games, and Kyrie Irving for 18 games last season. Brooklyn proved that having a third superstar could be an invaluable insurance policy against injuries to one of their three superstars. That’s why Pelinka jumped at the chance to trade for Russell Westbrook.

Having that third superstar who could cover when one of their three superstars were out with injury enabled the Nets to post a 48–24 record, second best in the East and fourth best in the entire league last season. Unfortunately, the Nets were unable to build the chemistry needed in the playoffs during their disjoined regular season and ultimately lost in the conference semi-finals to the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks.

How the Nets survived the injuries to their superstars clearly caught Rob Pelinka’s attention and was a major factor in the Lakers’ decision to trade for Russell Westbrook and build a superstar big three to match the Nets.

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WHY WESTBROOK OVER HIELD WAS RIGHT DECISION

Russell Westbrook’s stats for last night’s game were 33 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 steals with only 3 turnovers while shooting 15 of 27 from the field, including 10 of 14 or 71.4% in the restricted zone.

While Buddy Hield is an elite 3-point shooter, he could not have done what Russell Westbrook did last night to help the Lakers beat the Spurs in overtime. It’s the difference between an elite role player and a superstar. While Russ doesn’t solve the Lakers’ need for high volume and quality 3-point shooting, he brings the Lakers exactly what they need to win a championship: a legitimate third superstar for the non-LeBron minutes.

The next major step for the Lakers is to figure out how to replicate the play we got from Russ and AD last night to win the 12 minutes in every single game the Lakers are losing when LeBron James is on the bench resting. Eventually, Russell Westbrook figuring out how to win when LeBron James is not available or is on the bench will ease the concerns and prove to the doubters that Russ is a great fit as the Lakers’ third superstar.

Once the Lakers learn how to apply what they’re learning from playing games without LeBron to the minutes each game when James rests, they will be on their way to becoming an unstoppable offensive juggernaut.

The question is not whether Russell Westbrook can make his game fit with LeBron James and Anthony Davis but whether the Lakers can adjust their team style of play to optimize and unleash Russell Westbrook.

The Lakers know the only way Westbrook is going to work alongside James and Davis is if the two superstars adjust their games and roles to accommodate Russ rather than asking him to change the way he plays. James giving up the ball and moving to four and Davis giving up power forward and moving to the five are moves the Lakers have to make to give Westbrook at the one a chance to be a championship caliber lineup.

While Russ had a dud of a game against the Warriors, the Lakers did not play him in lineups that complemented strengths like his ability to attack the rim or mitigated weaknesses like not being a good jump shooter. Instead of playing Westbrook with at least two respected 3-point shooters to create space for him to attack the rim, the Lakers basically played him in lineups where opposing defenses could turn him into a jump shooter.

What the Lakers need to do is establish the Westbrook Rules, a set of guidelines to ensure Russ will be surrounded by players who complement his strengths and mitigate his weaknesses whenever he is in the game.

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Westbrook Rule #1: Surround Russ with Elite Shooters

Even before trading for Russell Westbrook, packing the paint was already the preferred league strategy for preventing LeBron James and Anthony Davis from attacking the rim and turning them into jump shooters.

With Russell Westbrook joining LeBron James and Anthony Davis, teams are going to double and triple down on that strategy. Better to give James, Davis, and Westbrook wide open jumpers than let them get to the rim. Tuesday night, the Warriors executed that plan to perfection, limiting LeBron to two shots at the rim and four in the paint and forcing him to take six shots from midrange and a eleven threes from beyond the arc.

While teams will pack the paint regardless of whom the Lakers have on the court, the Lakers still need to counter this strategy by making sure to pair two high quality 3-point shooters whenever they play their big three. That means they can’t waste one of the two shooting spots next to the big three in their starting lineup on a low post traditional center like DeAndre Jordan or Dwight Howard. They need to start two capable 3&D players.

Tuesday night, Russ played 16 of his 35 minutes with a low post center and a single 3-point shooter in the lineup. Westbrook Rule #1 should be to always surround Russ with multiple 3-point shooters in every lineup.

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Westbrook Rule #2: Surround Russ with Elite Defenders

Integrating Russell Westbrook into a Lakers team with a ‘defense first’ coach like Vogel and a top ranked defense in the NBA last season despite losing James and Davis to major injuries will clearly be a challenge.

Vogel struggled with his rotations in the opening game against the Warriors on Tuesday night, mainly because of the nagging injuries that have rendered Ariza, Horton-Tucker, Nunn, and Ellington unavailable. That forced Vogel to play Russ in lineups with other guards whose strengths were not defense. Defending Curry and Poole with Westbrook and Rondo or Westbrook and Monk should never have seen the court.

The Warriors destroyed the Russ and Rondo and Russ and Monk lineups. Vogel played Westbrook with Rondo for 7 minutes Tuesday night for a -70 net rating and Russ with Monk for 12 minutes for a -69.8 net rating. While only one game, the Lakers will face this dilemma all season long: How do they get shooters in the game without compromising their defense. The answer could be more Kent Bazemore and Avery Bradley.

Frank Vogel did not do Russell Westbrook a favor by playing him with Rajon Rondo or Malik Monk for 19 of his 35 minutes. Westbrook Rule #2 should be to always surround Russ with elite defenders in every lineup.

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Westbrook Rule #3: Encourage Russ to Be Russ

While the Lakers need to put Westbrook in lineups that complement his strengths and hide his weaknesses, they also need Russ to be Russ. That’s what was really missing from the Lakers’ effort against the Warriors.

The Lakers need Westbrook to be the relentless, fearless, attack dog player who averaged a triple-double in four of his last five seasons. While they want better shot selection and defense, they want Russ to be Russ. The Lakers didn’t trade for a dumbed down version of Russell Westbrook. They traded for a third superstar with the idea it would be James and Davis rather than Westbrook who would have to make more adjustments.

Frank Vogel has said Russell Westbrook’s poor first game was on him for not doing the things needed to allow Russ to be Russ and promised the Lakers would make adjustments tonight to complement and unleash Russ. Regardless of the adjustments the Lakers make, the onus has is still on Westbrook to be more aggressive, to find ways to get to the basket. Russ needs to come out and be himself, play the game like he always has.

I expect Russ to come out in full-throttle Russell Westbrook mode tonight, looking for redemption for last Tuesday night. Westbrook Rule #3 should be to always encourage Russ to be Russ in every lineup.

While last night’s opening season loss to the Warriors was disappointing, the Los Angeles Lakers and their fans should be encouraged that it won’t take long for this team to get their act together and become a juggernaut.

Yes, there are still storm clouds circling like Westbrook’s fit and play, the lingering injuries, and poor free throw shooting. And the Warriors’ elite playmaking and shooting schooled the Lakers’ defense in the second half. But Golden State’s a legitimate championship contender this season and will be even more dangerous when Klay Thompson returns. That this was a game the Lakers could easily have won should be very encouraging.

With just three players back from last year’s squad and new offensive and defensive schemes to learn, the Lakers’ made significant progress towards figuring things out, especially defensively, despite the opening game loss.

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1. Lakers First Half Was Best of the Season

The Lakers’ loss to the Warriors was a tale of two halves. With Bazemore hounding Curry, the Lakers’ defense dominated the first half while the Warriors’ offense controlled the second half to ultimately win the game.

The Lakers posted a 100.0 offensive rating and an 89.8 defensive rating as they built a 59–53 lead at halftime led by Davis’ 20 points and James’ 18 first half points. It was the best half of Lakers’ basketball this season. Overall, the Lakers had five steals and three blocks in the first half and held the Warriors as a team to just 4 of 16 or 25% from deep and Steph Curry to just 10 points on 3 of 11 from the field and 1 of 4 from deep.

While the Lakers couldn’t contain the Warriors’ lethal offense in the second half, they showed in the first half they can still play the kind of lock-down defense that led them to their 17th NBA championship.

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2. LeBron and AD Look Ready to Dominate

It’s no secret the Lakers will go as far as LeBron James and Anthony Davis can carry them so having both superstars post 30 point and 10 rebound games was exactly how the Lakers wanted to start the season.

LeBron had 34 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, and four turnovers in 36.7 minutes against the Warriors while shooting 56.5% from the field, 45.5% from three ( 5/11), and 50.0% from the line (3/6). Anthony Davis posted 33 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal, and 0 turnovers in 33.0 minutes against Golden State while shooting 57.7% from the field, 20% from deep (1/5), and 28.6% from the line (2/7).

While the Lakers superstars need to shoot better from the line, it has to be an encouraging sign for the Lakers that LeBron and AD appear to be healthy and ready to raise the level of their play to championship caliber.

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3. Avery Bradley Should Be 5th Starter

The Lakers have struggled this preseason to find 3-point shooters who can both create spacing for the team’s three superstars while also playing the kind of aggressive physical defense that coach Frank Vogel demands.

With Ariza, Horton-Tucker, Ellington, and Nunn injured, the only 3&D candidate Frank Vogel could start alongside LeBron, AD, and Russ was Kent Bazemore, who had a great game at both ends against the Warriors. When the Warriors started to rain threes in the fourth quarter, however, Vogel surprised everybody by inserting Avery Bradley, who had just been claimed off waivers from the Warriors the day before, into the game.

Needless to say, Vogel may have found the Lakers elusive fifth starter as Bradley was a huge spark, relentlessly harassing Poole and Curry with aggressive physical defense and hitting two out of three from deep.

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Where Do Lakers Go From Here?

The Lakers made great strides during their loss to the Warriors figuring out what they need to do as a team and as individuals to optimize their superstars and lineups and start playing championship basketball.

While Vogel will likely stay big for the Phoenix game Friday because of Suns’ center Deandre Ayton, he needs to start Anthony Davis at the five and LeBron James at the four to create spacing for Russell Westbrook. Starting a proven 3&D guard like Avery Bradley instead of low post center DeAndre Jordan could be the solution that leads Vogel to go modern and embrace the Lakers playing small ball with Anthony Davis at center.

With LeBron and AD playing like superstars, Bazemore and Bradley creating spacing for Russ to attack the rim and playing the physical defense Frank Vogel demands, the Lakers have a winning blueprint.

If Anthony Davis wants to win Defensive Player of the Year this season and cement his legacy as one of the next group of superstars competing for Best Player on the Planet, he needs to tell Frank Vogel to start him at the five.

No more wishy washy comments about not wanting to bang with centers. No more wonky excuses for not playing the position you are universally acknowledged as your best position and the best way you can help team. This is the year when the Lakers need you to become the best player on the team, take the baton from LeBron and make the huge leap from Robin to Batman, show the Lakers Nation what they can expect when James retires.

There’s a time in every great player’s career when he faces a key decision on what to do become the best possible version of himself. That time has now come for Anthony Davis, who needs to embrace playing the five.

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19 OF THE LAST 25 DPOY WINNERS HAVE BEEN CENTERS

While it’s possible for Anthony Davis to win DPOY as a power forward, the reality is that 19 of the last 25 players to win that award were centers, including Rudy Gobert, who has won DPOY three of the last four years.

Despite his defensive heroics, Anthony Davis has never won Defensive Player of the Year. When the oddsmakers opened lines for who would win the DPOY for the 2021–22 season, Davis was ranked fourth with +800 odds. After the recent announcement that Anthony Davis would likely play most of his minutes at center, the odds he would win the award dropped to +500, tied for second with Ben Simmons and behind only Rudy Gobert’s +380.

Centers may be losing value as the NBA evolves into positionless lineups but one responsibility centers still dominate is anchoring defenses. Playing center will unlock Anthony Davis’ rise as the Lakers’ next great center.

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ANTHONY DAVIS’ LAKERS LEGACY WILL BE AS A CENTER

The Los Angeles Lakers’ legacy as a franchise has been renowned for [ the greatest collection of centers in the history of the game, including George Mikan, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Shaquille O’Neal.

In many ways, Anthony Davis’ recent preference for playing power forward since being traded to the Lakers has often been viewed as a negative by many of the reporters who vote for the regular season and playoff awards. Frankly, it’s hard to imagine Wilt, Kareem, or Shaq asking to be excused from playing center because of the physicality that comes with the position. It’s time for AD to lead the resurrection reestablishing the value of centers.

In many ways, AD hesitating to play center reminds me of Ben Simmons hesitating to shoot jumpers. Superstars are expect to do whatever they need to help their teams win. For Anthony Davis, that means playing center.

As the Los Angeles Lakers prepare for the 2021–22 season opener against the Golden State Warriors in Los Angeles on Tuesday night, the big question is who is going to start alongside LeBron, AD, and Westbrook.

Untimely injuries to Trevor Ariza as well as Talen Horton-Tucker, Kendrick Nunn, Malik Monk, and Wayne Ellington have derailed Lakers ‘ head coach Frank Vogel’s basic plan to have the same starting lineup all season long. Earlier in the season, the Lakers likely starting lineup was projected to include the three superstars plus Wayne Ellington and Trevor Ariza but it now appears neither will be available to play Tuesday night due to injuries.

Although Monk and Nunn both returned to practice today, there’s been no official word yet as to whether they’ll be ready to play Tuesday night. Right now, here are the four best options Vogel has to fill out the starting lineup:

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1. KENT BAZEMORE, STARTING SMALL FORWARD

While the Lakers struggled and lost all six of their preseason games, Kent Bazemore was clearly one of the team’s bright spots, playing solid perimeter defense and shooting 36% on a respectable volume of 4.2 threes per game.

While his 112.1 defensive rating for the preseason only ranked 13th on the Lakers and his offensive rating of 89.0 ranked 15th on the team, Bazemore was singled out by Vogel for his excellent defense and 3-point shooting. While only 6′ 4″ and 195 pounds, Kent has a 7′ 0″ wingspan that enables him to play and defend both the shooting guard and small forward positions. His greatest ‘ability’ might be his availability as injuries limit his competitors.

With Ariza out for another 6 to 8 weeks, Bazemore may have locked up the fourth starting spot because of his balance of shooting and defense. That he also started five of the six preseason games is a solid indication he will start.

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2. DEANDRE JORDAN, STARTING CENTER

Frank Vogel loves two big defenders in his starting lineups and seems hell bent on repeating the twin towers lineups from the Lakers’ championship in the bubble with DeAndre Jordan assuming JaVale McGee’s starting role.

While Jordan had a poor 91.7 offensive rating, 105.0 defensive rating, and -13.3 net rating for preseason, he did start at center in the Lakers’ final preseason game, which was labeled as a ‘dress rehearsal’ for opening night. The problem with starting Jordan at the five is it moves Anthony Davis to the four and leaves only shooting guard as a position for a high volume, high percentage 3-point shooter to create spacing for the Lakers’ superstars.

While the Lakers won a championship starting a low post center in the regular season, starting Jordan would be a major mistake that would leave the starting lineup without enough 3-point shooting to create spacing.

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3. CARMELO ANTHONY, STARTING POWER FORWARD

The injuries to Ariza, Horton-Tucker, Ellington, Monk, and Nunn may force coach Frank Vogel to start Carmelo Anthony at power forward alongside Anthony Davis at center with LeBron James then moving to small forward.

This might not be the permanent starting lineup Frank Vogel was hoping for but at least it does include Anthony Davis playing the five and two starting spots for elite 3-point shooters between Melo and whoever plays the two. Because of Mel’s subpar defense, the Lakers would likely have to start Bazemore at the two so they would not end up with two poor defenders. Melo did shoot 43.5% on 4.6 threes per game, second best to Malik Monk.

With the injuries limiting Vogel’s choice, starting Melo and Bazemore may be the best Frank Vogel can do right now to give the Lakers size and shooting to go with their superstar big three of James, Davis, and Westbrook.

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4. AUSTIN REAVES, STARTING SHOOTING GUARD

Austin Reaves has been the surprise of the Lakers’ preseason. Undrafted, he impressed enough to earn a two-way contract, which was then converted to a regular NBA contract as the 23-year old enjoyed a breakout training camp.

Reaves is a long shot to start alongside LeBron, AD, and Russ but the 23-year old, 6′ 5,” and 195 pound shooting guard could well be the Lakers’ best option to start at the two due to his solid 3-point shooting and defense. What Austin brings to the starting lineup is a balance of savvy playmaking, high volume and quality 3-point shooting, great size and rotational instincts on defense, and solid basketball IQ and great maturity as a rookie.

If Frank Vogel’s goal in building a starting lineup is to surround LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook with the two players who best complement them, then Austin Rivers should be the starting shooting guard.

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There are obviously other candidates besides the above four whom Frank Vogel could decide might start for the Lakers along with the superstar big three of LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook.

Of the other seven players on the roster, I excluded Ariza, Horton-Taylor, or Ellington as they’re unlikely to be available and Howard, Nunn, Monk, or Rondo, as they’re all far better suited to come off the bench for the Lakers. I’m hoping Frank Vogel does not start DeAndre Jordan as that would create major spacing issues for the Lakers’ starting lineup and leave the Lakers vulnerable to not having enough 3-point shooting to win enough games.

In the end, Vogel’s best starting option to complement the big three would be Austin Reaves and Kent Bazemore because of shooting and defense. Second best option would be Kent Bazemore and Carmelo Anthony.