Lakerholics

While the Los Angeles Lakers have seemingly embraced small ball with Anthony Davis at the five, Frank Vogel still likes playing two bigs, especially when one is an inside-out shapeshifter like AD who can play big or small.

We saw Vogel’s love for two bigs Sunday when he started Jordan at center and Davis at power forward, hoping to reverse the trend of the ‘too small’ Lakers getting killed on the boards and losing the points-in-the-paint battle. The Lakers miss having the 6′ 9,” 245 lb Markieff Morris, who combined with 6′ 9,’ 250 lb LeBron James, and 6′ 10,” 253 lb Anthony Davis to anchor the bully ball version of small-ball-on-steroids that won the 2020 championship.

As Vogel works to find lineups that give the Lakers more size, we’re likely to see more games Frank plays two bigs rather than going small with AD at the five. After all, he prefers two bigs and Anthony Davis prefers to play the five. Which raises the question of whether the big move the Lakers should make at the trade deadline should be one designed to allow them to play two bigs while still playing the same five-out offense and rotating pressure defense.

Here are ten reasons why the Lakers’ top priority at the trade deadline should be trade for Pacers’ center Myles Turner, who would dramatically improve the Lakers short-term and long-term chances to win more championships.

1. Better Rim Protection. Combining Myles Turner, #1 with 3.1 blocks per game, with Anthony Davis, #3 with 2.3 blocks per game, would enable the Lakers to have an elite shot blocker in the game for all 48 minutes.
2. Better Perimeter Defense. An elite shot blocker on the court all the time would enable the Lakers’ perimeter defenders to pressure the ball more aggressively knowing there always was a rim protector backing them up.
3. Better Rebounding. Great defensive stops usually end by securing the rebound and adding 6′ 11,” 250 lb Myles Turner, who’s averaging a career best 7.5 rebounds per game, including 1.5 on the offensive end.
4. Better Floor Spacing. Myles Turner’s 42.2% on 4.4 threes per game would provide critical spacing for LeBron, AD, and Russ to attack the paint and get to the rim. 51.6% of Turner’s shots are from three.
5. Better Vertical Gravity. One of weapons the Lakers miss from their championship season are the dunks off lobs to McGee and Howard. 48.8% of Turner’s shots are 2-pointers and 21,6% dunks at the rim.
6. AD Plays the Four. Allowing Anthony Davis to play his preferred power forward position is one of the biggest benefits of trading for Turner. Two stretch fives who can also attack and protect the rim is a big advantage.
7. LeBron Plays the Three. Looking at how LeBron is playing this year, the Lakers might be better off with him playing the three, where he can be more of a point forward and 3-point shooter, than banging at the four.
8. Team Gets Bigger. Frank likes size and adding Turner at stretch five adds more size and versatility than a comparable small or power forward. Can’t get bigger than LeBron, AD, and Myles at the three, four, and five.
9. Team Gets Younger. At 25, Myles Turner is three years younger than Anthony Davis and gives the Lakers a dynamic young center to pair with AD once LeBron James has retired. Suddenly, Lakers are younger.
10. Avoid Losing Free Agents. A Turner trade could cost Horton-Tucker, who at 20-years old is still a year or two away from stardom, and Nunn and Monk, for whom we lack Bird rights and would lose in free agency.

While the simpler solution for the Lakers would be to trade for a bigger (6′ 6″ to 6′ 9″) 3&D wing to supplement Ariza, trading instead for a shot blocking stretch five like Myles Turner has a bigger upside for Lakers’ championships.

The trade for Russ forced the Lakers to go all-in on small ball with AD at the five. Unfortunately, the Lakers’ current version of small ball can’t protect the rim and is getting killed on the boards and outscored in the paint.

The problem with the Lakers’ small ball lineups is they are simply ‘too small.’ Opposing teams are hunting their undersized guards and small forwards and scoring at will in the restricted area and physically dominating at both ends. The Lakers hope in the short term to weather the storm until Trevor Ariza returns from injury in early December and then probably make a trade at the deadline to bring in a bigger 3&D wing player to supplement Ariza.

The question the Lakers need to be asking themselves right now is what move will help make the Russell Westbrook experiment work? It may be time for Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office to think outside of the box.

Why Lakers Should Trade for Myles Turner Instead of Small Forward

The Lakers’ version of small-ball-on-steroids works because size, length, athleticism, and physicality matter in the NBA as long as you don’t lose skill and speed in the process. That’s why Lakers’ small-ball-on-steroids works.

For Westbrook to work with LeBron and AD, the Lakers need to get bigger, which is why Frank Vogel had earlier reintroduced the idea of playing two bigs together and then experimented with it again last night against Detroit. But there’s another route to getting even bigger that could ultimately be better for the Lakers than relying on Ariza or a trying to trade for a bigger 3&D wing, which is what every team in the league is also trying to do.

Instead of pursuing a bigger 3&D wing to play small forward, why not pursue a dynamic young two-way center like Myles Turner who would give the Lakers the rim protector they need and the stretch five they’ve coveted. Vogel could then play his preferred two bigs, Davis his preferred power forward , and James his preferred small forward. You could argue James, Davis, and Turner could be the best front court trio in the league.

Trading for Turner would give the Lakers better rim protection and enable their perimeter defenders to more closely defend the 3-point line. More importantly, the move would make the Lakers a better more versatile team. They could go big or small, play outside-in with 5-out sets to open lanes for LeBron, AD, and Russ to attack the rim, or play inside-out with Turner and Davis as a two-big twin towers set that can dominate the paint and glass.

The Lakers should double down on their small-ball-on-steroids lineup by trading for Myles Turner instead of a small forward. Turner would make them a more dangerous offensive team and more potent defensive team.

How Lakers Trading for Myles Turner Will Help Russell Westbrook

The reason the Lakers should pursue Myles Turner instead of trading for a bigger 3&D wing player is adding a stretch center will make their critical small-ball-on-steroids lineups and Russell Westbrook experiment work.

Not only will the move give the Lakers better rim protection, perimeter defense, rebounding, floor spacing, and vertical gravity at the rim, it would also allow the Lakers to have an elite shot blocker on the court at all times. Playing Myles Turner and Anthony Davis at the same time would put a lid on the basket at the start and end of games for the Lakers and guarantee elite shot blocking and rim protection for all 48 minutes of every single game.

Offensively, having two modern centers capable of stretching the court with 3-point shooting or putting pressure on the rim with with vertical gravity as lob and dunk threats will transform both the Lakers’ offense and defense. Being able to play Vogel’s favored two bigs lineups while still being able to create spacing to attack the rim will transform the Lakers ‘too small’ small ball lineups into versatile and unstoppable small-ball-on-steroids lineups.

Trading for Myles Turner will elevate the Lakers into a juggernaut at both ends of the court. It’s the key to unleashing Russell Westbrook at the one and allowing LeBron and AD to play their preferred three and four positions. Adding Turner is also another dagger into the heart of the Lakers’ struggle figuring out how to win the frustrating non-LeBron James minutes that have been the team’s Achilles Heel since signing the King three seasons ago.

The Lakers need to go all-in on making the Russell Westbrook experience work and trading for Myles Turner is the smart move to turn their ‘too small’ small ball lineups into more versatile small-ball-on-steroids lineups.

What Would the Lakers Have to Give Up to Trade for Myles Turner?

After three seasons of rent-a-centers and frustration over AD not wanting to play the five, it’s time for the Lakers to stabilize the center position by trading for an elite two-way center like Myles Turner at the trade deadline.

With the Pacers having to break up their twin towers of Turner/Sabonis, the Lakers should offer Indiana a package that includes young studs Talen Horton-Tucker and Kendrick Nunn and veteran center DeAndre Jordan. Turner will be in demand so the Lakers may have to include a future first round pick or another promising young player like Malik Monk to beat other teams’ offers but it’s the right move to make to optimize LeBron’s window.

Another important benefit of the trade is that it fixes the Lakers’ roster imbalance between bigs and smalls and opens up two roster spots for major upgrades via another trade at the deadline or pickup in the buyout market. Here’s what the Lakers’ starting lineup and depth chart would look after trading young guards Talen Horton-Tucker and Kendrick Nunn and veteran center DeAndre Jordan to the Indiana Pacers for center Myles Turner:

PG: WESTBROOK, Monk, Rondo,
SG: REAVES, Ellington, Bradley
SF: JAMES, Bazemore
PF: DAVIS, Anthony, Ariza
CE: TURNER, Howard

Trading for Turner would give the Lakers a dramatically stronger starting lineup at both ends of the court, solid backups at all five positions, and room to take advantage of other opportunities to upgrade the end of the roster.

The Lakers refused to trade him for Kyle Lowry and re-signed him rather than Alex Caruso but Talen Horton-Tucker has emerged as the backcourt candidate best suited to pair with Russell Westbrook in the starting lineup.

The Lakers signed Ellington, Monk, Nunn, Bradley, and Bazemore looking for a 3&D backcourt mate for Russell Westbrook only to discover they already had the player they needed in 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker. While the sample size is just three games without LeBron James, THT appears to have hit the ground running, unleashing a remarkable third year breakout after missing the start of the season due to thumb surgery.

In his first three games of the season, Horton-Tucker has averaged 23.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 34.3 minutes per game with solid 49.0/40.0/100% shooting splits and the third best net rating on the team. Talen has not only earned a major spot in the rotation but also has a shot to win starting shooting guard if he continues to play near this level. It’s totally intoxicating to think about the impact this version of THT could have.

Talen will have to prove his 3-point shooting is for real but his confidence is high and he trusts the work he’s put in to improve his mechanics and muscle memory and is not at all surprised that he has gotten off to a great start.

Could Westbrook and Horton-Tucker Be Lakers’ Backcourt of the Future?

Once the Lakers traded for Westbrook, Talen Horton-Tucker went from a likely starter to an unlikely starter as Russ, LeBron, and AD need to be surrounded by proven 3-point shooters, which as a career 28.5% THT is not.

Ironically, the Westbrook trade could have undermined THT’s career with the Lakers. Before the trade, talk was of Talen possibly starting this season. Once the trade was made, the Lakers aggressively signed multiple shooters. Everything suddenly changed for Talen and starting seemed like a long shot. Talk was he and Russ were both were poor shooting, paint-seeking, rim-attacking, ball-dominant guards who couldn’t win playing together.

While three games is not enough to make a reliable judgement, the elite play of Horton-Tucker over the last three games has been extremely encouraging, especially the solid 40% completion rate from deep on 6.7 threes per game. That’s the high volume, high percentage 3-point shooting the Lakers need next to Westbrook. THT’s Kawhi-sized hands, 7′ 1″ wingspan, low center of gravity, and physicality at both ends make him a perfect fit next to Russ.

In the three games played with THT, Russ averaged 19.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 10.0 assists in 33.7 minutes per game with 43.5/31.5/81.3% shooting splits. 10 assists and 4.7 turnovers per game is mostly Good Russ. Over the three games, Russ and THT combined to average 42.6 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 12 assists. They shot 36.1% on 12 threes per game and were two of just three Lakers players with positive plus/minus and net ratings.

While Russ and Talen won’t get the same touches and opportunities when LeBron returns, they could be one of those unexpected outside-the-box pairings that could become a Lakers’ championship staple at both ends.

What does a Westbrook/Horton-Tucker Backcourt Mean for the Lakers?

The Westbrook/Horton-Tucker Lakers backcourt sets the stage for the Lakers to recreate the physically dominant small ball lineup they used to win their 17th NBA championship over the Miami Heat in the bubble a year ago.

Rob Pelinka and Frank Vogel’s vision for this Lakers team is similar to the vision they had for the championship team except more offense. Basically, the Lakers want to physically dominate opponents with size and athleticism. Pairing the 6′ 4″ 234 lb Talen Horton-Tucker with the 6′ 4″ 200 lb Russell Westbrook gives the Lakers a more physical and athletic backcourt than this year’s Westbrook/Bradley backcourt or the KCP/Green bubble backcourt.

Of course, to make this work, Russ and Talen need to shoot better from deep than they did last year, when Westbrook shot 31.5% from three on 4.8 attempts per game and Horton-Tucker 28.2% on 2.9 attempts per game. That’s why the injuries have been so frustrating because they’ve prevented the player for whom the offensive and defensive schemes were created from playing. But LeBron is close to returning and Ariza not far behind.

Aside from pairing two alpha dog rim-attackers who can regularly contribute 20 points per game, Russ and THT bring an elite level of physicality on defense Ellington, Monk, Nunn, Bradley, Bazemore, or Reaves could not. With Westbrook at the one, Horton-Tucker at the two, James at the three, Ariza at the four, and Davis at the five, the Lakers would have five players with the athleticism and physicality to dominate their opposing counterpart.

Even the Lakers didn’t expect Talen Horton-Tucker to have elevated his game to this level, although they obviously knew it was coming. Their big gamble to keep him instead of trading him may have just started paying off. What I love most about Horton-Tucker going off is the news has been lost in the articles by the gloating anti-Lakers media over the team’s early season struggles. They didn’t even notice yet that Talen Horton-Tucker has arrived.

Westbrook, Horton-Tucker, James, Ariza, and Davis would be a bully ball starting lineup that could play the style of rotating defense the Lakers’ championship team did but with a lot more offensive firepower.

While it’s still early and we haven’t even seen some players play yet, we’re starting to see enough to make a reasonable projection how the Lakers’ starting lineup and depth chart will look come December and January.

While integrating superstars LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook has been challenging, the Lakers still appear to be committed to playing all three superstars to both start and close games and halves. While Frank Vogel hedges his comments by saying there will be times when the Lakers will play two bigs, he also appears firmly committed to Anthony Davis starting and closing games and playing major minutes at center.

Let’s take a look at the Lakers’ roster to see who are favorites to start and the likely candidates to backup the starters when everybody is healthy in December and January heading towards the February 10th trade deadline.

Lakers’ Projected STARTING LINEUP Once Everybody Is Available

With Russell Westbrook at the one, LeBron James at the four, and Anthony Davis at the five locked in to start and finish games and halves, the Lakers’ starters at the two and three will need to provide key spacing and defense.

While Avery Bradley has been starting at shooting guard, it’s unlikely he will be able to hold onto the starting job once everybody is healthy. Like Kent Bazemore, Avery’s future is likely to be a defensive specialist off the bench. That leaves Wayne Ellington, Malik Monk, Kendrick Nunn, and Austin Reaves as the remaining candidates to start at shooting guard. Reaves is a rookie and Nunn hasn’t even played yet and is best fit to backup Westbrook.

That leaves Ellington and Monk as the remaining two top candidates to start. Ellington is kind of the favorite and has slowly been shooting like his resume while Monk is the more versatile option as an uncanny three-level scorer. What will separate the two in coach Vogel’s mind is defense. Monk’s 99.3 defensive rating is the best for any Lakers player who has played in six or more games compared to Ellington’s 8th ranked 107.5 defensive rating.

Talen Horton-Tucker has been starting at small forward and will likely be given the opportunity to retain that role going forward because, while he is only 6′ 4,” he has a 7′ 1″ wingspan and physical strength to play the three. Horton-Tucker’s biggest issue starting alongside James, Davis, and Westbrook is his ability to space the floor with 3-point shooting. The Lakers are giving THT a chance before the trade deadline to prove he can start.

Come December and January, I would not be surprised to see the Lakers’ fivesome that starts and closes games and halves to be Russell Westbrook, Malik Monk, Talen Horton-Tucker, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis.

Lakers’ Projected DEPTH CHART Once Everybody Is Available

Just as LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook were locks for the starting lineup, Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard are sure to be the primary backups for LeBron James at the four and Anthony Davis at the five.

Who will be the primary backups for the one, two, and three is less certain. Rondo’s recent excellent play has reinserted him into the competition with younger Kendrick Nunn to be Westbrook’s primary backup at point guard. While Nunn will get most of the backup minutes at the one, Vogel’s will also give Rajon enough spot minutes to keep him involved and ready to turn into Playoff Rondo once the Lakers finish the season and get into the playoffs.

Assuming Malik Monk starts at the two, Wayne Ellington should beat Avery Bradley out for the primary backup at shooting guard. Vogel still likes Bradley so he’ll get spot minutes as as on-ball defender and spot up shooter. Since Ariza has only played the four the last four seasons and lacks the footspeed to play the three, the Lakers’ backups for the undersized Horton-Tucker at the three will fall to the more undersized Bazemore or Reaves.

Frankly, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kent Bazemore, and Austin Reaves are really shooting guards masquerading as small forwards. The Lakers have a serious shortage of bigger (6′ 6″ to 6′ 8″) 3&D wings that needs to be addressed. Expect the Lakers to keep a close eye on the emerging trade market as the ‘No Trade’ restrictions for Kendrick Nunn ($5M/Year) expire on December 15, 2022 and for Talen Horton-Tucker ($15M/Year) on January 15, 2022.

The Lakers are going to have to make a trade for a bigger 3&D wing like Jerami Grant or Cam Reddish to fix their roster imbalance. The problem is their only major trading chips are Talen Horton-Tucker and Kendrick Nunn. Players like Monk or Ellington, while not making large salaries, still have value for teams needing shooting. The Lakers also don’t have Nunn’s or Monk’s Bird rights, so trading them for the right player could be appealing.

In the end, the Lakers have a serious roster imbalance that will require a major trade at the deadline to fix. Fortunately, the Lakers do have some valuable trading chips to swap to get the bigger 3&D wing they need.

Right now, the Lakers are struggling because of injuries and the trade for Russell Westbrook caused them to undergo what is the equivalent of a metamorphosis from a traditional two-big team to one-big small ball team. Transforming the team to small ball with AD at the five for the entire regular season was hard enough without integrating eleven new players. The injuries to James, Davis, Ariza, Nunn, Ellington, and THT have not helped.

Considering the challenge, the Lakers could easily have a worse record than 8–7. The team just needs to get healthy. With LeBron slated to return Friday against the Celtics and Ariza soon to practice, the Lakers will be fine.

Could the solution to the fit and spacing problems the Lakers are having with lineups with their superstar big three be as simple as breaking them up and playing them in pairs to have two superstars on the court at all times?

There’s no question Frank Vogel faces serious challenges trying to find two complementary starters who can defend at a high level, shoot and make the three, and fit with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook. That’s not an easy challenge with a healthy roster and the Lakers’ injuries only make it more daunting. At the heart of the problem is the enigmatic Russell Westbrook and the perpetual quest to figure out with whom he fits.

Here’s the gist of where I’m going. Basketball in essence is a two-man game. That applies to both role players and superstars. Creating chemistry and building a winning roster around two superstars is easier than with three. The Lakers should optimize Russ by pairing him alone with James or Davis rather than with both of them. That would simplify building winning lineups and enable the Lakers to have two superstars on the court all the time.

So let’s take a look at whether it makes sense for the Lakers to prioritize two superstars on the court for the entire game versus trying to make clumsy overcrowded three-superstar starting and closing lineups work.

1. The Two Superstars On the Court All of the Time Full Option

This is the option that makes the most sense for the Lakers as it still has all three superstars starting and closing games while also having at least two superstars on the court all of the time between the game start and close.

We’ve seen how Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis can play winning basketball without LeBron James the last two games. If Vogel started AD at the five, the Lakers might have won both games easily versus in overtime. With LeBron injured, Vogel simply has more options and can more easily put together winning five-man lineups around two rather than three superstars. Suddenly, there’s opportunities for Monk and Ellington to earn minutes.

The Lakers would still start and close games with all three superstars but would only play two superstars to end first half or start second half and use those minutes to have two superstars on the court for the rest of the game. Having two superstars on the court for the rest of the game is a better use of Russell Westbrook than giving him more minutes with LeBron James and Anthony Davis in cramped lineups with questionable defense or spacing.

The Lakers would be a better balanced team with Russ playing 12 minutes more per game with LeBron and AD against the other team’s reserves than struggling to fit with James and Davis in a superstar big three lineup.

2. The Two Superstars On the Court All of the Time Lite Option

Of course, there is another option should the Lakers want to avoid the difficulty of building lineups around three superstars entirely, which is to cut Westbrook’s minutes and pull him from the starting and closing lineups.

That’s not something I expect the Lakers to do but could be an option if Russ continues to struggle playing alongside LeBron and AD. It at least gives the Lakers a optional off-ramp short of trading Russ if he continues to struggle. In other words, instead of the Lakers playing all three superstars together to start and end each half, why not think out-of-the-box and instead prioritize always having two superstars on the court for all 48 minutes of the game?

Basketball by its nature is a two-man game and building a rotation featuring lineups headed by LeBron and AD, LeBron and Russ, and Russ and AD could be smarter than trying to force a LeBron, AD, and Russ lineup to work. In the last two wins, we’ve seen it’s easier to build balanced five-man lineups with two rather than three superstars. The Lakers might be a better team by focusing on two instead of three superstars and limiting Russ’ minutes.

Two superstars on court the entire game could be a smarter way to take advantage of having a superstar big three than trying to build winning lineups surrounding three superstars with elite defense and shooting.