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LakerTom wrote a new post
When you’re the Los Angeles Lakers, life comes at you fast. Little more than 14 months after winning their 17th title, the purple and gold find themselves facing three monumental franchise-defining personnel decisions.
The 16–16 Lakers are now 32 games into the 2021–22 NBA season with four players out due to H&S protocols and three more due to injury, including superstar center Anthony Davis, who’s slated to miss 20 to 30 games. Suddenly, in addition to trying to tread water until Nunn and now Davis get healthy, the Lakers find themselves having to rethink the role and viability of their superstar big three and their grand plan for the future.
This season is starting to eerily resemble the Lakers’ last season when injuries to LeBron James and Anthony Davis undermined the team’s quest to repeat and ended in a whimper via a first round exit courtesy of the Phoenix Suns. Just 14 months after winning their 18th NBA championship, the Lakers thought they were on the verge of a dynasty but now find themselves faced with three explosive personnel decisions that could determine their future.
Should the Lakers trade or keep Russell Westbrook? Can they count on Anthony Davis to be durable or impactful enough to take the baton from LeBron? And how long can LeBron James continue to play at this level?
1. Should the Lakers Trade or Keep Russell Westbrook?
Despite Westbrook playing well and being what they hoped for when they traded for him, the Lakers are already exploring whether he might be the missing piece in a trade to improve their roster and championship hopes.
Once the trade door is opened, it’s hard to close. The Lakers also have not seen how their team would look with a healthy Trevor Ariza and Kendrick Nunn. Unfortunately, Anthony Davis’ injury may now make that moot. Packaging Westbrook with budding young talent like Horton-Tucker and Nunn could give the Lakers the trading chips to bring back players with the size and defense at the wing and in the front court to fix their roster.
What it will come down to is whether the Lakers will be able to trade THT and Nunn for the bigger 3&D wing player (Jerami Grant) or modern stretch five center (Myles Turner) to let Davis to play his preferred power forward? That would be the ideal solution but the Lakers will probably have to expand the trade to include Russ, multiple players on both sides, and even another team. Their championship hopes will depend on what Pelinka is able to do.
Finding a trading partner to take on the final year of Russ’ contract would probably be a doable option this summer. Finding a team to take on two years and $91 million midseason will be more challenging but possible.
2. Can the Lakers Count on AD to Take the Baton from LeBron?
After a scintillating performance and winning a championship in the bubble, 28-year old Anthony Davis was projected by everybody to be on the verge of replacing LeBron James as the best player on the planet and the Lakers.
Unfortunately, major injuries have not only derailed Davis ascension to the crown but also raised concerns whether Anthony has the alpha mentality and physical durability to take the baton from LeBron and lead the Lakers. Injuries to LeBron and AD were probably a big part of the reason why the Lakers ultimately chose to trade for a third superstar in Russell Westbrook. A third superstar is the best insurance of losing a superstar to injury.
Right now, the Lakers are both worried about Davis being injury prone and concerned whether he will be capable of being the team’s alpha player. For whatever reason, AD has clearly not been the same player since the bubble. While the Lakers still consider Anthony Davis to be untouchable, they’re also having second thoughts about whether Davis’ struggles could be related to playing so many minutes at the five when he prefers playing the four.
The Los Angeles Lakers aren’t concerned Anthony Davis won’t be able to take the baton from LeBron James. They’re just trying to decide whether AD’s future as a Laker is playing small ball center or playing power forward.
3. How Long Can LeBron Continue to Play at an Elite Level?
How long can LeBron James continue to be the King and a top-five player on the planet and how best to optimize his championship window will be key factors in any moves the Lakers make before the trade deadline.
Rob Pelinka has already confirmed the Lakers traded for Russell Westbrook to reduce the workload on LeBron James. Sources also confirmed the Lakers are interested in trading Westbrook for Sixers’ point guard Ben Simmons. Rich Paul, the agent for James, Davis, and Simmons, just confirmed to Shams Charania that the two players the Lakers are targeting for this midseason trades are in fact the Sixers’ Ben Simmons and the Pistons’ Jerami Grant.
What Klutch Sports’ president Rich Paul did was announce to the basketball world that the any NBA team that wants to trade for Ben Simmons will have to come up with a better offer than Lakers superstar Russell Westbrook. Trading Westbrook for Simmons would be a genius move if Pelinka can pull it off. Because of the Lakers’ relationship with Klutch and Ben’s relationship with LeBron and AD, L.A. may be the only team who could trade for Russ.
The Lakers believe LeBron James can play until he is 40-years old. He will turn 37 on December 30th and will be 38 when his contract expires in June 2023. The Lakers will likely sign LeBron to a final extension this summer.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Once the door to a Russell Westbrook trade has been opened, it’s hard to close, especially with LeBron turning 37 end of this month. While Russ has been playing well, the Lakers would be negligent not to look at all options.
The question with Russ has never been about his talent but his fit on a Lakers team that needs to surround LeBron and AD with shooters. As expected, Russ has slowly and surely started to find his way and play well. The Lakers’ problem is they don’t have the trading chips to fix their current roster imbalance and acquire impactful talent with the size and defensive chops they need to become legitimate championship contenders.
The Lakers’ problems are two-fold. First, their only tradable assets who are not minimum salary or superstar players are Talen Horton-Tucker ($10 million for 3 years) and Kendrick Nunn ($5 million per year for 2 years). Second, their only other possible trading chip, since they’re not going to trade LeBron or AD, is Russell Westbrook, whose $91 million contract over the next two years makes finding willing trading partners a challenge.
The solution is to package 32-year old Russell Westbrook with 21-year old Talen Horton-Tucker, who’s shown the potential to become a dynamic two-way star, and Kendrick Nunn, another rising young star to sweeten the deal. Packaging Russ with THT and Nunn opens the door from both a talent and financial standpoint for the Lakers to make the kind of major upgrades to their starting lineup and rotations they could not have otherwise made.
Here are three blockbuster trades built around Russell Westbrook and THT that solve the Lakers’ roster imbalance and make them bigger and better defensively and offensively and a legitimate championship contender.
1. Indiana Pacers: Myles Turner, Caris LeVert, and T.J. Warren
Myles Turner, Center: 12.9/7.4/1.0 on 51.3/36.4/74.7%
Caris LeVert, Shooting Guard: 16.3/2.7/3.3 on 44.0/29.8/80.4%
T.J. Warren, Small Forward: 19.8/4.2/1.5 on 53.6/40.3/81.9% (2019)This trade tops the list of potential Lakers trades because it’s the perfect solution for what is a growing concern about Anthony Davis’ physical and mental ability to play center without more front court size and defense.
While the Pacers are rebuilding, they’re not going to completely tear it down so they need a combination of impact talent to help them compete at a higher level plus young players or picks to insure future growth. Russell Westbrook gives the Pacers the on-court catalyst to help ignite a fire and transform them into playoff team in the East with Talen Horton-Tucker and Kendrick Nunn filling in the roster as proven young talent with upside.
Myles Turner starting at center is the key for the Lakers as it allows Frank Vogel to play his preferred two-big lineups, Anthony Davis his preferred power forward, and LeBron James his preferred small forward position. The Lakers could also leave the trade open like the Wizards did with Westbrook and look to upgrade Warren and LeVert for a starting point guard. The key is acquiring Turner so AD only has to play the five part-time.
The Lakers could play LeBron at the one with Reaves at the two, Warren at the three, Davis at the four, and Turner at the Five. That’s a big lineup that can play small with five out sets or go big and play bully ball in the paint.
PG: LEBRON JAMES, Rajon Rondo, Isaiah Thomas
SG: AUSTIN REAVES, Malik Monk, Wayne Ellington
SF: T.J.WARREN, Caris LeVert, Kent Bazemore
PF: ANTHONY DAVIS, Carmelo Anthony, Trevor Ariza
CE: MYLES TURNER, Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan
2. Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons, Danny Green, and Furkan Korkmaz
Ben Simmons, Point Guard: 14.3/7.2/6.9 on 55.7/30.0/61.3% (2020)
Danny Green, Shooting Guard: 7.0/2.7/1.2 on 41.5/38.3/100.0%
Furkan Korkmaz, Shooting Guard: 8.4/2.9/2.4 on 37.4/29.5/82.1%While Russell Westbrook is not on the Sixers’ list of 30 players for whom they’re willing to trade Ben Simmons, the Lakers should be patient because it’s unlikely any team is going to offer more than Russ for Ben.
The 76ers are in a tough situation, currently sitting in 9th place in the East and in the midst of a 3-game losing streak. They desperately need to make a move to trade Ben for a point guard who can lead them to the playoffs. Westbrook is the best point guard the Sixers are going to be able to trade for and Daryl Morey will eventually realize that and make the necessary move to trade Ben Simmons for the best they can get to save their season.
For the Lakers, swapping Russell Westbrook for Ben Simmons gives them the size and defense they need to be a legitimate championship contenders and a rare third All-NBA defender who can guard all five positions. Ultimately, the Lakers could move Simmons from point guard to power forward or small ball center, a position that would optimize Ben’s great defensive ability and allow him to play point center ala Nikola Jokic.
The Lakers could play Ben at the one with Reaves at the two, Green at the three, LeBron at the four, and Davis at the Five. That too is a big lineup that can play small with five out sets or go big and play bully ball in the paint.
PG: BEN SIMMONS, Rajon Rondo, Isaiah Thomas
SG: AUSTIN REAVES, Malik Monk, Wayne Ellington
SF: DANNY GREEN, Furkan Korkmaz, Kent Bazemore,
PF: LEBRON JAMES, Carmelo Anthony, Trevor Ariza
CE: ANTHONY DAVIS, Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan
3. Boston Celtics: Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and Josh Richardson
Jaylen Brown, Shooting Guard: 21.1/5.4/2.4 on 46.6/38.4/75.4%
Marcus Smart, Shooting Guard: 11.0/4.0/5.6 on 38.3/27.6/76.4%
Josh Richardson, Shooting Guard: 9.9/2.8/1.2 on 46.0/37.5/81.6%The Boston Celtics are another team struggling against expectations this season and desperately looking for a point guard who can run the offense. Russell Westbrook would be a major upgrade over Marcus Smart.
The Celtics are currently sitting in 8th place in the East with a 15–15 record. There have been conflicts and squabbles between Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, and Jason Tatum over sharing the ball and shooting too much. With a new GM and head coach, Boston needs a major move to resurrect their season and trading Brown, Smart, and Richardson for Westbrook, Horton-Tucker, and Nunn is the bold move they need to get back on track.
For the Lakers, Jaylen Brown is the perfect third superstar to replace Russell Westbrook. Brown is a 20-points per game scorer who shoots 38.4% on 7 threes per game. At 6′ 6,” 223 lbs, Brown’s a perfect fit at the three. Smart would be an ideal point guard and huge upgrade defensively for the Lakers. While he’s a streaky and sometimes unreliable 3-point shooter like Westbrook, Smart’s All-NBA defense is a perfect fit on the Lakers.
The Lakers could play Smart at the one with Reaves at the two, Brown at the three, LeBron at the four, and Davis at the Five. Another big lineup with the versatility to play small ball or go big with bully ball in the paint.
PG: MARCUS SMART, Rajon Rondo, Isaiah Thomas
SG: AUSTIN REAVES, Malik Monk, Wayne Ellington
SF: JAYLEN BROWN, Josh Richardson, Kent Bazemore,
PF: LEBRON JAMES, Carmelo Anthony, Trevor Ariza
CE: ANTHONY DAVIS, Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan-
The simple fact that the Lakers have had internal discussions about trading Russell Westbrook less than six months with just 30 games after trading most of their available assets for him tells you Los Angeles is not afraid to admit a mistake and at least look at the opportunities to correct the mistake. That’s a lot better than burying your head in the sane and refusing to adjust.
Whether they can find a trading partner to take on Russ $91 million over two years will likely depend on what the Lakers are willing to add to Russ to make a more palatable package. Since the Lakers are not going to trade LeBron or AD, THT and Nunn are the only non-minimum contracts with value. Thus the best package the Lakers can put together to upgrade their starting lineup and rotations is Russ, THT, and Nunn. If needed, we can also throw in the 2027 first round pick.
I’ve included the basic stats and shooting splits for each of the three players the Lakers would get for Russ, THT, and Nunn as well as a proposed starting lineup and rotations. Each of the three trades brings the Lakers back a potential third star as well as more size and defense. Whether the packages offered will be good enough for the players targeted will depend on how the various trade targets perform over the next six weeks.
There’s no question the Lakers may end up waiting until this summer to seriously try to trade Russ, who would be an expiring contract at that point in time but LeBron turns 37 on Dec 30 and his championship window opening is getting smaller every day. That’s why the Lakers will look to trade Russ and why THT and Nunn will need to be included to attract possible trade partners.
Top priority and the move I think makes the most sense is the Lakers trading with the Pacers for Myles Turner, T.J. Warren, and Caris LeVert. Next would be a trade for Ben Simmons, Danny Green, and Furkan Korkmaz. Last would be a trade for Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and Josh Richardson. All are certainly long shots that would shock the entire NBA.
Lakers going to need to do something dramatic in this third Covid driven season. Let me know what you think of these three trades? Thanks.
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I used Fanspo.Com’s Trade Machine for the above three trades. They use the LEBRON (Luck-adjusted player Estimate using a Box prior Regularized ON-off) impact data provided by BBall Index to rate how the trade works for each team.
Here are the results of the three trades:
Russ, THT, & Nunn for Turner, LeVert, and Warren
Lakers -6 wins, Pacers +6 winsRuss, THT, & Nunn for Simmons, Green, and Korkmaz
Lakers -1 win, Sixers +1 winRuss, THT, & Nunn for Brown, Smart, Richardson
Lakers -4 wins, Pacers +4 winsAll three trades favor Lakers trade partner.
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I think the Lakers would be worse off if they trade worse unless it’s for Dame which won’t be happening. You either need an elite shot maker or trove of above average players. Anything less is really just moving pieces around the board but with less time to incorporate them and get them up to speed. While of course any and all of the trades tossed around are possible and the Lakers will likely at least kick the tires on more than one I think it’ll take a lot more losing for the Lakers to truly entertain this notion.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Swapping point guards could solve the dilemmas the Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers find themselves this season. It’s literally the perfect deal for Ben, Russ, Lakers, Sixers, and Rich Paul and Klutch Sports.
The Lakers and Sixers have both underperformed this season and sit in 6th place in their respective conferences. Westbrook would immediately elevate Philadelphia into the top four seeds in the tough Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, Simmons would give the Lakers a replacement for Westbrook who could help solve many of the Lakers’ problems, including making them bigger, better, and more versatile and potent at both ends of the court.
While trading a point guard who can’t shoot for one who won’t shoot could seem counter productive, here are ten reasons why the Los Angeles Lakers should seriously consider trading Russell Westbrook for Ben Simmons:
- Simmons Is a Better Defender. Ben was 1st team All-NBA Defense for 2020 and 2021. Russ has never made an All-NBA Defense team.
- Simmons Takes Better Care of Ball. Ben has a career average of 3.4 turnovers per game whereas Russ’ average is 4.1 turnovers per game.
- Simmons Is a More Efficient Shooter. Ben is a career 56% shooter from the field whereas Russ is just a 43.8% shooter from the field.
- Simmons Makes Lakers Bigger. Ben is 6′ 11,” 240 lbs while Russ is 6′ 3,” 200 lbs. Ben is 8″ taller and 40 lbs heavier than Russ.
- Simmons Is a Better Rebounder. Ben has a career rebounding average of 8.1 rebounds per game versus 7.4 rebounds per game for Russ.
- Simmons Makes Lakers More Versatile. Ben can play point guard, power forward, or center while Russ can only play point guard.
- Simmons Has a Higher PER. Ben is averaging 18.38 PER this season versus 16.61 PER for Russ this season.
- Simmons Makes Lakers Younger. Ben is only 25-years old while Russ is 32-years old. Ben is 7 years younger than Russ.
- Simmons Saves Lakers Salary. Ben earns $33.0 million while Russ earns $44.2 million this season, a difference of $11.2 million per year.
- Simmons Has Longer Contract. Ben has three more years left on his contract while Russ only has one year left on his contract.
How Possible Is a Russell Westbrook for Ben Simmons Trade?
The Sixers should be interested in an offer of Russell Westbrook for Ben Simmons and we could see early action starting this Wednesday when most of the free agents signed this summer finally become eligible to be traded.
Westbrook in many ways is the perfect fit for Philly as he’s a high usage elite playmaker who is a constant threat to post a triple-double but without any 3-point gravity. Ironically, as a point guard, Russ plays very similar to Ben. Trading Simmons for a point guard with similar style of play and ability to impact the game like Westbrook would minimize the adjustments the Sixers have to make on the fly in a more competitive Eastern Conference.
Meanwhile, Ben Simmons is in limbo and the Sixers left with an empty bag. If they want to be legitimate contenders to compete with the favored Bucks and Nets, they’re going to have to make a move before the trade deadline. That Russ has really ramped up his play the last few weeks only makes the potential trade for Ben even more tantalizing for both sides. Other than Kyrie, Russ is probably the best available superstar the Sixers could acquire.
Are there teams who might offer Philly more for Simmons than Westbrook? Per Shams Charania, the Knicks, Wolves, Blazers, Kings, Pacers, and Cavs are all interested in trading for Ben Simmons but won’t be offering a superstar.
How Would Swapping Westbrook for Simmons Affect the Lakers?
A superstar big three of LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Ben Simmons would not only be the perfect solution to the Lakers quest for their 18th NBA but also an agent’s dream come true for Klutch Sports’ mogul Rich Paul.
Swapping Russell Westbrook for Ben Simmons and Furkan Korkmaz would immediately help the rebounding size and points-in-the-paint problems that have devastated the Lakers’ small ball lineups with Anthony Davis at the five. Replacing Westbrook with Simmons also dramatically improves the Lakers defensively. Suddenly, they have three All-NBA quality defenders who can actually defend all five positions in the paint or beyond the 3-point line.
Because Westbrook makes $11 million more per year than Simmons, the Sixers would have to include an additional player like 6′ 7,” 200 lbs Furkan Korkmaz, who would give the Lakers an elite volume 3-point shooter. Additionally, the Lakers would still have Talen Horton-Tucker’s $10 million contract, Kendrick Nunn’s $5 million contracts, and their 2027 first round pick to upgrade one of the other two positions in their starting lineup.
Assuming Simmons was all-in for what the Lakers wanted from him, trading Russell Westbrook for him would certainly improve the Lakers’ odds of winning their 18th championship and position themselves for other moves.
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It would crazy, but if we could get Simmons and Turner that’d be nice.
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Oy vey. As I was reading this, I was wondering how long it’d take Tom to figure out a way to include Turner in the deal. Ain’t happening. Don’t nobody want Russ nor some hodge podge of mostly useless or unproven pieces the Lakers have.
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Let me start by saying I am a fan of the Russell Westbrook trade. While I get as exasperated as any of us at the ridiculous turnovers and missed layups, I’m also amazed a half dozen times each game by a great drive or pass Russ made. He’s getting better each week and I’m glad the front office thought and went for the home run. As we’ve seen post-Kobe, it’s not easy to win championships.
As much as I like Russ, the Lakers are in a tough situation as they may not have the trading chips to land a Myles Turner, Jerami Grant, or Cam Reddish. Not at the trade deadline or next summer. And we know they’re not going to trade LeBron or AD. But Russ for Ben? That’s a deal that makes you wonder if Rich Paul has already pitched it to the Lakers. Like with AD, no team is going to trade for Ben without his approval, considering his current circumstances. So Klutch does have some power over this situation, not unlike what they had with AD.
But Russ playing himself out of being untradeable, just like CP3 did, could change everything. Morey’s not going to get another superstar other than Westbrook for Simmons. Not unless he throws in sweeteners. That the Lakers are interested in Ben says everything because it clearly indicates Westbrook is not untouchable, which is a lot different from the ‘untradeable’ he was four weeks ago.
You don’t trade Russ unless you have an opportunity to make the team much better, which is exactly what Ben Simmons represents. You may say I’m dreaming but I’ll bet you Rob and Rich have talked about this. Imagine how much better our defense would be with Simmons, Davis, and LeBron? Three guys who are big but can defend all five positions at all three levels. It’s Frank Vogel’s wet dream.
The other thing the Russ for Ben trade does is give the Lakers a dramatic boost in size and defense, which has been a big part of their issues playing small with AD at the five. I could see Ben replacing Russ at the one, helping defensively at the four, and even playing some small ball five with LeBron. Ben presents similar spacing problems as Russ but helps in so many other areas that it’s a much better fit. That’s what this trade is all about. Fit! Ben is much easier to fit than Russ.
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The one thing many people don’t keep in mind is that Daryl Morey won’t trade for Russ a second time despite the pressing issue of Ben Simmons. Russ is not his protégé as may be the case between Derick Rose and Tom Thibideaux.
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But his last trade for Westbrook was a success and he really does not have any other way to get a superstar. Ben for Russ may be best deal Daryl can find. For sure, Russ would be a great fit on the Sixers. Always a long shot wishing for a mega trade but the Klutch factor could be real fire and not just smoke.
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Off topic: it is interesting to see the Knicks free falling while Kemba Walker is banished from the rotation. Makes you wonder who the real culprit is. Those Knicks need some parachutes before they experience a hard landing that could be a crushing blow to somebody.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
While Frank Vogel may have been the right coach to lead the Lakers to the championship in the bubble, he might not be the right man for the job since LA traded for Russ, which forced them to go small with AD at the five.
Concerns Vogel might not be the right coach to guide the Lakers through a metamorphosis from an old school two-bigs team to a modern small-ball team were likely the reason the Lakers only gave Frank a 1-year extension. While injuries and a roster imbalance have been issues, we’re now seeing how Frank Vogel’s ‘old school’ philosophies and strong defensive bias could ultimately make him a poor fit as head coach of an evolving Lakers team.
The Lakers front office made specific decisions the last two offseasons to upgrade the team’s offense, especially prioritizing 3-point shooting. It was understood this would inevitably involve swapping defense for offense. While Vogel’s a defensive genius, he’s never been known for his expertise as an offensive guru or innovative coach who knows how to fix offenses. Unfortunately, he’s going to have to rapidly evolve offensively to survive.
This is the modern NBA and Vogel’s unapologetic bias on defense may not be what the Lakers want after the Russell Westbrook trade. They need a coach who creates lineups based on net ratings not just defensive ratings.
How Vogel Went From NBA Championship to Coaching Hot Seat
It seems unfair and surprising that Frank Vogel could be on the coaching hot seat a little over a year after his Lakers won the championship in the bubble in Orlando but the trade for Russ changed everything for Frank.
The Westbrook trade essentially forced the Lakers to commit to small ball with Anthony Davis at the five. Just as trading for Russ required AD to sacrifice and move to the five, it also required Vogel to evolve as a coach. Evolving to embrace a more modern style of play with a balance between offense and defense has not been an easy challenge for Frank to make, especially when injuries have ravaged his rotations and size at the three.
After getting killed on the boards and outscored in the paint playing small to start games and halves, Vogel reverting to starting two bigs like in the Lakers championship season. Unfortunately, the two-big lineups struggled. Vogel’s fascination with two-bigs and reluctance to play shooters over defenders has become an obstacle to the Lakers winning on the court. The earlier concerns Frank might not be the right coach now seem prescient.
This is not the same team that won the 2020 Championship and the path to NBA Finals is more difficult than their gold paved road in the bubble. Vogel’s stubborn refusal to start Davis at the five has derailed the Lakers. The Lakers don’t have time for any more senseless experiments at center like the quarter of a season it took Vogel to finally bench DeAndre Jordan or another 10 games to confirm starting Dwight Howard is not the answer.
The Westbrook trade was made knowing Anthony Davis would have to move to the five and the Lakers would have to acquire and play multiple 3-point shooters for the LeBron, AD, and Russ superstar big three to work. For Vogel to revert back to two-big lineups rather than working to improve the rebounding and points-in-the-paint differential of the small ball lineups threw a massive monkey wrench into the Lakers post-Russ strategies.
What Vogel does the next few weeks could determine whether he remains head coach of the Lakers. For certain, he cannot survive putting out starting lineups with no 3-point shooters like he did against the Clippers.
What Vogel Needs to Do to Save His Job as Lakers’ Head Coach?
As the Lakers evolve into a more offensive oriented small ball team, Frank Vogel is also going to have to evolve as a basketball coach and embrace modern basketball if he wants to save his job as the Lakers head coach.
There’s a formula for winning with LeBron James, which is to surround him with elite 3-point shooters so he has space on the court to attack the basket. It’s a proven formula Frank Vogel seems to have completely forgotten. The Lakers’ offense has been so handicapped all season long by Vogel’s inane starting lineups that lack shooters to create spacing and play right into the hands of the opposing teams’ defenses by making it easy to pack the paint.
Specifically, Frank Vogel needs to make the following five major adjustments to his coaching philosophy and offensive and defensive strategies to evolve as a basketball coach and prove he is still the right coach for the LA Lakers:
- Embrace the roster you have and the direction the Lakers have to go due to the Westbrook trade. You surely agreed to the trade. It’s time to stop trying to play two bigs and embrace AD at the five.
- Prioritize starting and rotation lineups with a balance between offense and defense. Defense only lineups won’t work. Instead build lineups based on players’ net ratings instead of just their defensive ratings.
- Stagger shooters in the same way as you stagger playmakers and superstars. The goal should be to always have two shooters, two playmakers, and two superstars on the court 48 minutes per game.
- Adjust your defensive philosophy to match the skillsets of your personnel. Switch everything whenever Monk, Melo, and Ellington are involved. Fight over picks whenever it’s Westbrook, Bradley, or THT.
- Realize you need to evolve as a coach as the Lakers evolve as a team to continue to be their best option as a head coach. And for the Westbrook trade to work, you need to adjust rather than resist as the head coach.
If Vogel is going to save his job as Lakers’ head coach, he’s going to have evolve his coaching philosophy and embrace a balance between offense and defense that is a better fit not only for this roster but also the modern game. It’s actually a blessing that the Lakers have three full days before they play the Celtics next Tuesday night at what will by then be Crypto.Com Arena as it will give Frank and his coaching staff a chance to rethink what they’re doing.
Whom Vogel starts against the Celtics may tell us where this season is headed. If Vogel starts the same Russ, THT, LeBron, AD, and Dwight lineup with no quality 3-point shooters, calls to replace him will explode.
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I find myself torn when it comes to the Lakers actually firing Frank Vogel. Unlike some, who think Vogel is just a mediocre coach or is hopelessly lost in the past, I like how Frank coaches. He’s great defensively and proved he could push the right buttons to win an NBA championship in the bubble, which might have been something the Laker might not have been able to do without LeBron and AD getting that four-month rest.
But the landscape beneath Frank’s feet was dramatically changed when the Lakers traded for Russell Westbrook, something I’m sure Frank was asked to sign off on before the deal was done. Russ forces the Lakers to go small with AD at the five in order to have two elite 3-point shooters in the lineup with the three superstars. Everybody, including Frank, understood that this was where the Laker would be if they traded for Russ.
Despite early struggles, I think the Lakers are starting to see what they wanted to see from Russ. He’s slowly but surely starting to play much better, limiting his 3-point shooting and turnovers. AD has also played great, leading the league in points in the paint despite teams packing the paint every game against the Lakers and Vogel’s insistence on rolling out lineups with little or zero 3-point shooting to keep defenses honest.
Can Frank make the adjustments to sacrifice points on defense to gain enough more points on offense to turn losses into wins? That’s the big question. I think Frank understands his job is on the line and he can’t roll out another non-shooting lineup like the Russ, THT, LeBron, AD, and Howard lineup he unveiled against the Clippers. Do that and Frank will quickly find himself out of a job. I would not be surprised to find that Pelinka had this exact conversation with Frank already. Frank’s job is now on the line.
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1) Embrace the roster you have and the direction the Lakers have to go due to the Westbrook trade. You surely agreed to the trade. It’s time to stop trying to play two bigs and embrace AD at the five.
-I’m not so certain he did. Like I said awhile back: this started with a dinner and moved to Rob’s frontier. While I’m sure Frank was consulted I think it’s a big jump to move to a he embraced or agreed the trade observation. To be absolutely honest, Rob talks a lot about involving AD and LBJ in his discussions but a lot less in regards to the coach.2) Prioritize starting and rotation lineups with a balance between offense and defense. Defense only lineups won’t work. Instead build lineups based on players’ net ratings instead of just their defensive ratings.
– I think he’s tried to but, again, this is in many ways AD and LBJ’s team. The offense runs through them, the plays and actions are one’s that involve them and as a shooter or whatever your job is to get open and maybe you’ll get a pass and maybe you won’t but if you do take the shot, if you’re mostly open and please don’t try to think too much after all of the above.3) Stagger shooters in the same way as you stagger playmakers and superstars. The goal should be to always have two shooters, two playmakers, and two superstars on the court 48 minutes per game.
-While I know you didn’t mean play 6 guys it does kind of read like that. Again, assuming Russ, AD and LBJ are going to start and close games (they are and they will, there is no need to craft a post considering benching Westbrook in crunch time because that is, essentially, signaling the throwing in of the towel) we’re talking about 20-ish minutes of basketball. Given the limitations of the roster (Ellington, THT, Monk, Bazemore and Melo are our best shooters but also some of our worst defenders and not a one of them is a good rebounder, Bradley checks all the Vogel boxes and I assume his inclusion on the roster was at the behest of Vogel and yes I realize AB is not an elite three point shooter) it’s quite fair to ask which of the above can actually achieve the goal you laid out? Let’s say that both Nunn and Ariza come on board and play at about the same level of impact that the rest of the guys have had. That being a high degree of variance in the quality of their games on any given night. Since not one of them has established anything other than being inconsistent I feel this is an unreasonable ask. If you want Frank to pick the two guys he wants to play it’s going to be Bradley and THT simply because he knows them, they know his defense. This also kind of ignores the rebounding issue and points in the paint since, if we have 2 shooters alongside LBJ and AD and Russ that likely means no center other than AD or LBJ and they’re not ever going to play like a center ought to. The offense might improve but will it improve to a degree that compensates for all the other deficiencies it brings up? I don’t think it does. I think a smarter solution is work with LeBron, Russ and the shooters and figure out where they like to shoot from. I’ve given up on seeing this team run complex actions in the flow of the game, we barely do it on out of bounds plays. We need to get the 2 guys who run the offense to put the shooters we have in the best position to succeed.4) Adjust your defensive philosophy to match the skillsets of your personnel. Switch everything whenever Monk, Melo, and Ellington are involved. Fight over picks whenever it’s Westbrook, Bradley, or THT.
-I think we’ve seen this to the extent that we can given the place we are in the season. We can’t go back and redo training camp so you’re talking about over-hauling what has already been established. These guys aren’t all high IQ guys, vet status doesn’t mean you learn well on the fly. In all honesty i think the switch everything philosophy for us makes less sense, we already have a propensity to leave the wrong guy open or let dribble penetration break us down. I’d rather see us use more zones and surprise doubles on ball. We need to maybe tweak the tools they already have as we won’t have a ton of time to both integrate the injured guys, revamp the defense and figure out how to make the offense work in-season effectively.5) Realize you need to evolve as a coach as the Lakers evolve as a team to continue to be their best option as a head coach. And for the Westbrook trade to work, you need to adjust rather than resist as the head coach.
-Again I think Frank really has done as much as he can. The one thing I question is when he takes both LBJ and Russ out at the same time. I don’t get that. He tried AD at the 5, didn’t work well. It’s not Frank’s fault we’re under-sized, he can’t coach little guys to just play bigger. It’s not Frank’s fault we chose not to retain Caruso or any other role-player who was part of an elite defense. In essence, Frank can’t just coach around the team he was provided which is why I blame Rob far more than Frank. While I’m sure the coach in essence signed off on the roster, the job of assembly falls on the front office. it’s not like Frank is Phil, right? Or even LeBron James or AD all of whom possess more gravity and respect than does Frank Vogel.At the end of the day we can’t go back and make the roster healthier, younger or taller. We’re a small, old team by design. There is no coaching that out of the Lakers this season so the best Frank can do is tweak what they have and hope something clicks. I think he’s been doing that and what i want is actually to give some of those things a little more time to flourish and work out. If we’re going to go AD at the 5 to start games then let’s just do it and call it done, no more tinkering. But that would work better with a banger at the 4 and not Melo who will be around the 3 point line when the shot goes up. We desperately need somebody to box out on a consistent basis. That’s not any of the superstars or shooters. It’s not going to be Ariza, either who is tall but lanky. You brought up how letting Morris go was a mistake and I agree with that.
We also need a better deterrent at the rim than AD is. He’ll block his shot or three/game but that’s three shots out of dozens and dozens. he’s not stopping anyone from getting to the rim and the floater is more prevalent now than ever. We need to force jump shots, bad ones, and we are not doing that at all. We play right into analytics 101 by giving up threes and paint points. That starts on the perimeter and we have below average defenders out there. So maybe a zone works better in some instances, maybe switching everything works in others, but really it’s a pride thing: man up and play some gawdamn defense, guys.
I have many issues with Frank but, in my opinion, Rob should be on more of a hot seat along with ownership because they cheaped out and Rob couldn’t push them off that ledge and commit to fielding a true winner as opposed to the three musketeers and their band of aged merry-makers.
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Thanks for reading and commenting, Jamie.
I can’t disagree with you that Rob should also be on the hot seat. Unfortunately, we all know it doesn’t work that way. I also agree that LeBron’s presence – as well as AD’s and Russ’ complicates everything. Not an easy situation for Frank.
I’m confident that Frank was involved in the decision. Rob’s not dumb and I’ve sent a career working in collaborative consensus management teams. The goal in the end is everybody getting on the same page despite their original doubts and concerns. Frank fell in line like every good soldier does when the process is good and I think the Lakers are a well-run organization. Doesn’t mean they don’t make mistakes that some regret more than others but you can’t run an organization well without compromise.
And compromise is what Frank is going to have to do to survive as Lakers’ head coach because he has to find a way to make AD at the five work even without Ariza. That’s his job. If he can’t do it, it will likely cost him his job. Problem is the roster he was hired to coach at first has now changed and he may not be the right coach any longer. That’s up to him to prove. Right now, I think he can do it but he will have to accept that he needs to evolve as a head coach.
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Aloha Tom, I tried to respond earlier but it never posted. It doesn’t matter because Jamie and you covered a lot of what I was going to say. What is the most frustrating for me is when one of the big 3 rests. I can understand the difficulty in involving the others when the big 3 are on the court together but when one rests we still are not including the others in the action enough. The first 5 or 6 minutes of each half are important but there is a lot more game in between and that’s where we are really dropping the ball. Currently he big 3 are taking over 15 3’s a game. LeBron is shooting.337, Russ is .320 and AS is .188. Those 3 are killing us with those percentages not only on offense but in transition defense. The flip side is Wayne and Monk are getting around the 10 that Kuz and KCP got combined. Monks shooting slightly better then Kuz and Wayne slightly less then KCP. Considering the defense we lost with those two it’s been a real net negative so far. If we are going to make up for the lost defense, those two have to get more looks. I do believe once Trevor gets back we will see less of Dwight and DJ and more of AD at the 5. Still it won’t matter as much if we can’t get the others more involved. The give it to a star and get out of the way will not get us another ring.
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One more thing I forgot. When you add in Melo our 3 best 3 point shooters are getting only one more 3 point shot then Russ, LeBron and AD are. That’s not going to cut it.
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Aloha, Michael.
Great post that highlighted a big Lakers problem: our superstar big three are taking too many threes while our best three shooting role players are taking too few threes.
Here’s a Tweet I just posted with the 3-point stats for our three superstars vs. our best 3-point shooting role players: Melo, Monk, and Ellington.
Wrong Lakers Players Are Shooting Threes!
Lakers average 11.7 3PM, 33.6 3PA, & 34.7% 3P%, 14th in NBA. 6 players take 92% of the team's 3's.
Lakers' 3 superstars take 14.8 3's per game.
Should be < 10 3PA PG.Melo, Monk, & Wayne take 16.1 3's per game
Should be > 25 3PA PG. pic.twitter.com/CyoWdJXTE3— LakerTom (@LakerTom) December 7, 2021
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If the Lakers were to adjust their offense to get more shots for Melo, Monk, and Wayne and fewer for Russ, LeBron, and AD like I suggest in my Tweet, how would that affect the Lakers.
Frank needs to address this. LeBron, Russ, and AD are not KD, Harden, and Kyrie. They’re simply below average 3-point shooters. Meanwhile, we have three gunners averaging over 40%. They should take 75% of the threes for this team. That’s 7 or 8 shots per game for each of them and limiting the superstars to 2 each per game.
Suddenly, we’ll start shooting even better than 14th and the superstars will find it easier to get to the rim because of the improved spacing from the improved shooting. It’s how teams that were bad shooting teams become good shooting teams. Create open threes for the guys who can make them.
I think you are spot on about the Vogel needing to prioritize running plays specifically to get threes for Melo, Monk, and Ellington and fewer threes for the Big Three.
It’s crazy that the three players who shoot the best don’t get the most shots. And it’s not like the percentages are close. The shooters are averaging 40% while the superstars just barely beat 30%. Major point, MIchael. Keep hammering it. Thanks.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
One of the most exciting developments this Lakers’ season has been Frank Vogel’s recent small ball lineups with LeBron at the five and Melo at the four, which have shown great promise both offensively and defensively.
Last week I wrote Could the Evolution of LeBron James Be Small Ball Stretch Five for Lakers?Today I want to talk about why the Lakers should start playing more LeBron James at the five, even when AD is in the game. LeBron James is a basketball unicorn who can truly play all five positions. In his storied 19-year career, he has played point guard 6% of the time, shooting guard 7%, small forward 60%, power forward 26%, and center just 1%.
After the success of several lineup experiments with LeBron at the five and Melo at the four, Frank Vogel announced the Lakers will be incorporating variations of the what he calls their ‘centerless lineups’ in their repertoire. The Lakers’ ‘centerless lineup’ with Westbrook, Ellington, Monk, Anthony, and James showed great promise in two of the last three games and variation where Howard replaced James in the lineup was equally promising.
Assuming the Lakers play their ‘centerless lineup’ with LeBron at the five for 6 minutes in the first half and 6 in the second half, LeBron could end up at spending 12 minutes or 30% of his 40 minutes per game playing the five. Considering LeBron’s success at the five and AD’s preference for the four, the obvious next question is whether the Lakers should consider a variation of their ‘centerless lineup’ that has James at the five and Davis at the four?
Could the Lakers truly be an even better team with LeBron James at the five and Anthony Davis at the four? Could LeBron James actually could be the better center and Anthony Davis the better power forward for this team? Nobody sees the game the way LeBron James does and starting his move to what will ultimately be the logical lineup position to finish his career could end up being transformative for the Lakers’ current rotation and lineups.
The Lakers urgently need a catalyst to set a fire to their season and playing LeBron James at the five could be that catalyst. Here are six reasons why the Lakers could be a better team with LeBron James playing the five:
1. LeBron Is the Lakers’ Best Option as a Stretch Five Center
No player on the Lakers is better suited to play stretch five than LeBron. His volume 3-point shooting and low post power game enable him to play small or big. He would become the LA Lakers version of Nikola Jokic.
2. LeBron at Center Excels in Organizing and Directing Defense
LeBron at the five is about defense. It’s about LeBron playing Minister of Defense for the Lakers like Draymond Green does for the Warriors, calling out opponents’ plays and choreographing the Lakers defense shifts.
3. LeBron at Center Is More Engaged and Plays Better Defense
There’s no question playing center gets LeBron James more engaged in the game defensively since he acts like the team’s middle linebacker. The bonus is playing James at the five unleashes LeBron to play superstar level defense.
4. LeBron at Center Does a Better Job Boxing Out and Rebounding
As good as AD is as a rebounder, he rarely boxes out his man. LeBron, on the other hand, is one of the few Lakers who usually do a great job rebounding. Nothing beats LeBron starting a fast break with a rebound.
5. LeBron Has Low Center of Gravity to Defend Bigger Centers
Having a low center of gravity that makes you essentially unmovable is the biggest asset LeBron James has over Anthony Davis. His combination of size, smarts, power, and athleticism enable him to defend any kind of center.
6. LeBron Willingly Plays the Five But AD Prefers the Four
Anthony Davis does not want to play the five. His game is more finesse than power and he prefers to face up his defender rather than post him up. LeBron, on the other hand, loves to post up or shoot threes over centers.
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NBA players usually want to play the position they think best fits what they think of themselves. Some guys are point guards, some are shooting guards, some are wings or small forwards, others power forwards or fours, and finally centers, the forgotten position that despite modernizing itself is still undervalued.
Point guards get paid most, shooting guards the least, centers second least, pulled up by a few highly paid centers. Just look at the mess the Lakers have made of the position the last few years, the money spent was never great, unless you count AD as a five, which I’ve tried to do but more and more it doesn’t seem to fit. AD is not a center, doesn’t want to play center, so be it.
Short of trading for Turner, the Lakers should be looking for LeBron to play center for all of the reasons I detailed above. It could be the catalyst that wakes this team up and gets it to play elite defense again, led by LeBron, whose defensive effort was the key to those ‘centerless lineups’ working so well. When he plays the five, LeBron is truly the ‘center’ of attention.
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Situationally I think it makes tons of sense. Trying to etch anything in stone this season feels foolhardy. There are some teams that this really won’t work for, we get killed on the boards in the LeBron at the 5 minutes and that’s a concern as well. Good tool to keep in the shed and I’m in favor of anything that limits DeAndre Jordan minutes to zero so he can work on his high fives and celebrations. Unleash Dwight.
At any rate, I like that Frank is open to trying things he’s been hesitant to embrace in the past. Outside of creating solid defensive schemes Frank’s shown a decent ability to embrace change. Some things seem resistant to it but even in the last game we saw DAJ benched in favor of more Howard minutes and it paid off in spades. In that game. Nothing works perfectly in every game, in every scenario, against every single team. So having yourself be open to using the tools at hand in the best possible manner is as much as a fan can hope for.
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I thought the news from Rich Paul via Shams Charania about the Lakers focus on trades for Ben Simmons and Jerami Grant was important news, especially since Rich is Ben’s agent.
Looks like what the Lakers want is Westbrook for Simmons, which could be the best deal Philly can get considering how low Simmons’ trade value has become. The Lakers, with their relationship with Klutch and LeBron and AD’s relationship with Ben, might be the only team willing to make a fair offer for Ben. Rich is telling everybody they need a better offer than Westbrook if they want to trade for Simmons. The kicker in my mind is for the Lakers to include THT. That suddenly changes everything.
1. Should the Lakers Trade or Keep Russell Westbrook?
Keep him if possible but trade him if needed.
2. Can the Lakers Count on AD to Take the Baton from LeBron?
Yes, they still believe in AD but may want to trade for starting center.
3. How Long Can LeBron Continue to Play at an Elite Level?
Until he’s over 40. Will likely sign a 3-year extension this summer.