Lakerholics

While Frank Vogel may have been the right coach to lead the Lakers to the championship in the bubble, he might not be the right man for the job since LA traded for Russ, which forced them to go small with AD at the five.

Concerns Vogel might not be the right coach to guide the Lakers through a metamorphosis from an old school two-bigs team to a modern small-ball team were likely the reason the Lakers only gave Frank a 1-year extension. While injuries and a roster imbalance have been issues, we’re now seeing how Frank Vogel’s ‘old school’ philosophies and strong defensive bias could ultimately make him a poor fit as head coach of an evolving Lakers team.

The Lakers front office made specific decisions the last two offseasons to upgrade the team’s offense, especially prioritizing 3-point shooting. It was understood this would inevitably involve swapping defense for offense. While Vogel’s a defensive genius, he’s never been known for his expertise as an offensive guru or innovative coach who knows how to fix offenses. Unfortunately, he’s going to have to rapidly evolve offensively to survive.

This is the modern NBA and Vogel’s unapologetic bias on defense may not be what the Lakers want after the Russell Westbrook trade. They need a coach who creates lineups based on net ratings not just defensive ratings.

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How Vogel Went From NBA Championship to Coaching Hot Seat

It seems unfair and surprising that Frank Vogel could be on the coaching hot seat a little over a year after his Lakers won the championship in the bubble in Orlando but the trade for Russ changed everything for Frank.

The Westbrook trade essentially forced the Lakers to commit to small ball with Anthony Davis at the five. Just as trading for Russ required AD to sacrifice and move to the five, it also required Vogel to evolve as a coach. Evolving to embrace a more modern style of play with a balance between offense and defense has not been an easy challenge for Frank to make, especially when injuries have ravaged his rotations and size at the three.

After getting killed on the boards and outscored in the paint playing small to start games and halves, Vogel reverting to starting two bigs like in the Lakers championship season. Unfortunately, the two-big lineups struggled. Vogel’s fascination with two-bigs and reluctance to play shooters over defenders has become an obstacle to the Lakers winning on the court. The earlier concerns Frank might not be the right coach now seem prescient.

This is not the same team that won the 2020 Championship and the path to NBA Finals is more difficult than their gold paved road in the bubble. Vogel’s stubborn refusal to start Davis at the five has derailed the Lakers. The Lakers don’t have time for any more senseless experiments at center like the quarter of a season it took Vogel to finally bench DeAndre Jordan or another 10 games to confirm starting Dwight Howard is not the answer.

The Westbrook trade was made knowing Anthony Davis would have to move to the five and the Lakers would have to acquire and play multiple 3-point shooters for the LeBron, AD, and Russ superstar big three to work. For Vogel to revert back to two-big lineups rather than working to improve the rebounding and points-in-the-paint differential of the small ball lineups threw a massive monkey wrench into the Lakers post-Russ strategies.

What Vogel does the next few weeks could determine whether he remains head coach of the Lakers. For certain, he cannot survive putting out starting lineups with no 3-point shooters like he did against the Clippers.

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What Vogel Needs to Do to Save His Job as Lakers’ Head Coach?

As the Lakers evolve into a more offensive oriented small ball team, Frank Vogel is also going to have to evolve as a basketball coach and embrace modern basketball if he wants to save his job as the Lakers head coach.

There’s a formula for winning with LeBron James, which is to surround him with elite 3-point shooters so he has space on the court to attack the basket. It’s a proven formula Frank Vogel seems to have completely forgotten. The Lakers’ offense has been so handicapped all season long by Vogel’s inane starting lineups that lack shooters to create spacing and play right into the hands of the opposing teams’ defenses by making it easy to pack the paint.

Specifically, Frank Vogel needs to make the following five major adjustments to his coaching philosophy and offensive and defensive strategies to evolve as a basketball coach and prove he is still the right coach for the LA Lakers:

1. Embrace the roster you have and the direction the Lakers have to go due to the Westbrook trade. You surely agreed to the trade. It’s time to stop trying to play two bigs and embrace AD at the five.
2. Prioritize starting and rotation lineups with a balance between offense and defense. Defense only lineups won’t work. Instead build lineups based on players’ net ratings instead of just their defensive ratings.
3. Stagger shooters in the same way as you stagger playmakers and superstars. The goal should be to always have two shooters, two playmakers, and two superstars on the court 48 minutes per game.
4. Adjust your defensive philosophy to match the skillsets of your personnel. Switch everything whenever Monk, Melo, and Ellington are involved. Fight over picks whenever it’s Westbrook, Bradley, or THT.
5. Realize you need to evolve as a coach as the Lakers evolve as a team to continue to be their best option as a head coach. And for the Westbrook trade to work, you need to adjust rather than resist as the head coach.

If Vogel is going to save his job as Lakers’ head coach, he’s going to have evolve his coaching philosophy and embrace a balance between offense and defense that is a better fit not only for this roster but also the modern game. It’s actually a blessing that the Lakers have three full days before they play the Celtics next Tuesday night at what will by then be Crypto.Com Arena as it will give Frank and his coaching staff a chance to rethink what they’re doing.

Whom Vogel starts against the Celtics may tell us where this season is headed. If Vogel starts the same Russ, THT, LeBron, AD, and Dwight lineup with no quality 3-point shooters, calls to replace him will explode.

One of the most exciting developments this Lakers’ season has been Frank Vogel’s recent small ball lineups with LeBron at the five and Melo at the four, which have shown great promise both offensively and defensively.

Last week I wrote Could the Evolution of LeBron James Be Small Ball Stretch Five for Lakers?Today I want to talk about why the Lakers should start playing more LeBron James at the five, even when AD is in the game. LeBron James is a basketball unicorn who can truly play all five positions. In his storied 19-year career, he has played point guard 6% of the time, shooting guard 7%, small forward 60%, power forward 26%, and center just 1%.

After the success of several lineup experiments with LeBron at the five and Melo at the four, Frank Vogel announced the Lakers will be incorporating variations of the what he calls their ‘centerless lineups’ in their repertoire. The Lakers’ ‘centerless lineup’ with Westbrook, Ellington, Monk, Anthony, and James showed great promise in two of the last three games and variation where Howard replaced James in the lineup was equally promising.

Assuming the Lakers play their ‘centerless lineup’ with LeBron at the five for 6 minutes in the first half and 6 in the second half, LeBron could end up at spending 12 minutes or 30% of his 40 minutes per game playing the five. Considering LeBron’s success at the five and AD’s preference for the four, the obvious next question is whether the Lakers should consider a variation of their ‘centerless lineup’ that has James at the five and Davis at the four?

Could the Lakers truly be an even better team with LeBron James at the five and Anthony Davis at the four? Could LeBron James actually could be the better center and Anthony Davis the better power forward for this team? Nobody sees the game the way LeBron James does and starting his move to what will ultimately be the logical lineup position to finish his career could end up being transformative for the Lakers’ current rotation and lineups.

The Lakers urgently need a catalyst to set a fire to their season and playing LeBron James at the five could be that catalyst. Here are six reasons why the Lakers could be a better team with LeBron James playing the five:

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1. LeBron Is the Lakers’ Best Option as a Stretch Five Center

No player on the Lakers is better suited to play stretch five than LeBron. His volume 3-point shooting and low post power game enable him to play small or big. He would become the LA Lakers version of Nikola Jokic.

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2. LeBron at Center Excels in Organizing and Directing Defense

LeBron at the five is about defense. It’s about LeBron playing Minister of Defense for the Lakers like Draymond Green does for the Warriors, calling out opponents’ plays and choreographing the Lakers defense shifts.

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3. LeBron at Center Is More Engaged and Plays Better Defense

There’s no question playing center gets LeBron James more engaged in the game defensively since he acts like the team’s middle linebacker. The bonus is playing James at the five unleashes LeBron to play superstar level defense.

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4. LeBron at Center Does a Better Job Boxing Out and Rebounding

As good as AD is as a rebounder, he rarely boxes out his man. LeBron, on the other hand, is one of the few Lakers who usually do a great job rebounding. Nothing beats LeBron starting a fast break with a rebound.

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5. LeBron Has Low Center of Gravity to Defend Bigger Centers

Having a low center of gravity that makes you essentially unmovable is the biggest asset LeBron James has over Anthony Davis. His combination of size, smarts, power, and athleticism enable him to defend any kind of center.

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6. LeBron Willingly Plays the Five But AD Prefers the Four

Anthony Davis does not want to play the five. His game is more finesse than power and he prefers to face up his defender rather than post him up. LeBron, on the other hand, loves to post up or shoot threes over centers.

The Los Angeles Lakers have a serious problem. The immediate help they need to stop the bleeding in the form of injured players returning or a big trade to give the team more size in the front court aren’t happening soon.

The Lakers problem is their key injured players — Ariza and Nunn — aren’t likely to return until mid-December and their top trading chips — THT and Nunn —cannot be traded until December 15 and January 15 respectively. That means Lakers’ head coach Frank Vogel will have to find a way to survive with the existing roster for at least the 9 games before December 15 and possibly for the 22 games on the Lakers’ schedule before January 15.

While the Lakers aren’t in serious trouble yet, the warning signs are ramping up and unless Frank Vogel makes some major changes, the 10–11 Lakers could easily find themselves 15–15 on December 15 or 22–21 on January 15. Vogel is no novice in the coaching business and should know that having a record close to .500 on December 15 or January 15 could easily cost him his job as head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers. Frank is now on hot seat.

At the heart of the Lakers’ problems is Vogel’s starting lineup that included DeAndre Jordan and Avery Bradley as the two role player starters alongside the three superstars LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook. While DeAndre Jordan and Avery Bradley clearly fit what Frank Vogel wants as his starting rim protector and point-of-attack defender, both players have not met expectations and have the team’s two lowest net ratings.

How the Lakers fare over the 9 games before December 15 and the 22 games before January 15 will determine Vogel’s fate. So let’s look at what Frank can do to shake up the rotation, win some games, and save his job.

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1. Remove Jordan and Bradley from the Starting Lineup

If the Frank Vogel’s going to survive the 9 games until December 15 or the 22 games before January 15th, he’s going to have to replace DeAndre Jordan as the starting center and Avery Bradley as the starting shooting guard.

Vogel’s overreaction to the Lakers’ small ball lineups getting killed on the boards and outscored in the paint was to revert back to DeAndre Jordan starting again at center, despite his negative impact on the team’s spacing. Frank paired the Jordan move with Avery Bradley returning to the starting lineup the last two games. Vogel’s justification for making both moves was to increase the size and improve the defense of the starting lineup.

The results of the two games confirm Vogel did get better defense as Jordan’s 101.5 and Bradley’s 102.4 defensive ratings were best on team. Unfortunately, their 85.1 and 91.3 offensive ratings were worst on the team. While starting Jordan and Bradley created better defense, they stifled the team’s offense. Jordan’s -16.4 net rating was lowest and Bradley’s -11.2 third lowest on the team. Vogel needs to admit his mistake and replace both.

It’s one thing for a coach to want an elite defensive team and to demand players play defense if they want to start but Vogel needs to realize this team strategically sacrificed some defense to get much better on offense.

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2. Get Creative with Non-Traditional Starting Lineup

Pelinka’s moves combined with untimely injuries have derailed any roster stability the Lakers had hoped for. The best Frank Vogel can hope for now is to replace Jordan and Bradley with starters who can help the team win.

The above small ball lineup with LeBron James at the five and Carmelo Anthony at the four with three guards is a perfect example of the innovative starting lineups Frank Vogel needs to embrace to get the Lakers rolling. Substitute Anthony Davis for Carmelo Anthony and Frank has his starting lineup: Westbrook, Ellington, Monk, James and Davis. Or Davis and James if you want LeBron to play the five. Either way, Melo comes off the bench.

This is not the 2020 bubble championship roster but it has definite strengths that Vogel can rely upon when retooling his starting lineup and rotations. the roster also has its Achilles Heel in that it lacks small forward sized players. Fortunately, the Lakers do have three healthy quality bigs in LeBron James (36 mpg), Anthony Davis (36 mpg), and Dwight Howard (24 mpg) who could cover the 96 minutes of time at power forward and center each game.

After Friday night’s triple overtime loss to the Kings, Vogel will be under intense pressure from the media and fans to remove both Jordan and Bradley from the starting lineups. The Lakers are a team in need of change.

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3. Narrow Rotation to Ten Players Maximum

Besides setting his starting lineup going forward, Lakers head coach Frank Vogel needs to narrow his rotation to ten players by setting up the starter and primary backup for each position. The Lakers need rotational stability.

Here’s the Lakers’ projected depth chart:

PG: WESTBROOK, NUNN, Rondo
SG: ELLINGTON, REAVES, Bradley
SF: MONK, THT, Bazemore
PF: DAVIS, ANTHONY, Ariza
CE: JAMES, HOWARD, Jordan

Starters and primary backups in caps

The problem with Rob Pelinka’s construction of the Lakers’ roster is the obvious lack of size at small forward. While we keep hearing that 6′ 8″ Trevor Ariza is the solution, he has only played power forward the last four years. Frank Vogel needs to realize two bigs is not the answer to the Lakers’ lack of size at the three. That’s a problem the Lakers will have to wait to solve until January 15 when THT and Nunn will both be eligible to be traded.

Meanwhile, Vogel needs to find starting and rotation lineups that can score, defend, and win games with LeBron, AD, and three guards. That’s what his future as the head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers will depend upon.

I had an epiphany watching LeBron James play small ball center in the Lakers’ overtime victory over the Pacers Wednesday night. Could LeBron James’ ultimate position with the Lakers be as a stretch five center?

I’ve long been a fan of LeBron at the five since he became a Laker and, after my epiphany, immediately thought of a Western Conference Finals between the Lakers with LeBron at the five and the Warriors with Dray at the five. Watching LeBron calling out opponent’s plays and directing the Lakers switching and rotating small ball defense reminded me of how Draymond continues to do the exact same thing for the suddenly resurgent Warriors.

We heard a lot about moving LeBron to the four and AD to the five with the arrival of Westbrook but there are also solid reasons for the Lakers to seriously consider James starting at the five and Davis remaining at the four. While out-of-the-box, the idea of inverting LeBron and AD is not illogical. LeBron is 6′ 9″ and probably 260 pounds while AD is 6′ 11″ and 250 pounds. The difference is one player loves to physically bang and the other does not.

The Lakers want a center who’s more of a power than a finesse player. That’s a description that applies more to LeBron than to AD. LeBron’s low center of gravity and physicality makes him a better center candidate. In the wake of my epiphany about LeBron ending his Lakers’ career as a small ball stretch five, it’s obvious the simple solution is to leave AD playing his preferred power forward position and start LeBron’s evolution to the five.

The Lakers can begin by playing LeBron at the five for six-minute stints at the end of the first and third quarters, where LA struggles. LeBron at the five surrounded by four 3-point shooters can help the Lakers win those quarters. LeBron’s also more engaged when he’s playing the five and doesn’t take off plays defensively like he does at the three or four. Instead, he calls out the other team’s plays and directs his own players where to be and what to do.

In some ways, playing the five could also be less work for LeBron. Unlike AD and most of the Lakers, LeBron does a great job boxing out and rebounding when he plays the five. That’s why the five might be LeBron’s ideal position. LeBron at the five also lets AD play his preferred power forward position where he can roam, lurk in the paint, and use his elite shot blocking as a help defender and let LeBron handle the physical banging of playing the five.

Most NBA players move up a position as they get older and less mobile. Small forwards become power forwards and power forwards evolve into small ball centers as their careers end. It’ll be the same for LeBron. We’re starting to see LeBron settle for step-back threes and one-legged fadeaway twos in the paint rather than ferociously attacking the rim like he did in his prime. Part of it is the defenses but part of it is LeBron evolving.

It’s almost as if LeBron himself sees center as his ultimate position as he finishes his Lakers’ career and wants to make sure to mold his bully ball and 3-point shooting skills to become the modern version of an elite NBA center. LeBron James will be 38 when his current two year Lakers’ extension ends in 2023. If he signs another two-year extension, LeBron could continue to play for the Lakers through the 2025 season, when he will turn 40-years old.

The Lakers should start regularly playing LeBron James at the five right now. LeBron’s maximum championship window is five more years: three years left on his current extension and a second two-year extension until he’s 40. LeBron’s goal with four rings is to tie or beat MJ’s six rings. That would mean winning at least two more championship rings in purple and gold out of a maximum of five possible Laker seasons. Evolving to play center will help.

Sometimes life gives you glimpses of the future that feel like epiphanies you should have seen before. That’s what LeBron at the five feels like to me. It might not happen until his next Lakers contract but it’s going to happen.

The Lakers been outrebounded and outscored in the paint so badly when they go small with Anthony Davis at the five that Frank Vogel has reverted to starting DeAndre Jordan at center. They obviously need to get bigger.

The Lakers have three options to get bigger. They could wait for 6′ 8″ 36-year old Trevor Ariza to get healthy or they could trade some combination of Horton-Tucker, Nunn, and filler for a stretch center or bigger 3&D wing. Considering his age and they haven’t even seen him play yet, the Lakers aren’t going to be content to wait for Ariza. They know they need to make a big trade to fix the roster imbalance Westbrook and injuries have wrought.

There are several reasons why trading for a stretch center might be better than trading for a small forward, including that it would modernize the Lakers’ game while allowing LeBron and AD to stay at the three and four. Trading for a center would allow Vogel to play his preferred two bigs and have an elite center who could space the floor and protect the rim on the court for 48 minutes of each game. That would transform the Lakers.

Meanwhile, trading for a bigger (6′ 7″ to 6′ 9″) 3&D wing would still require the Lakers to play small ball with LeBron James at the four and Anthony Davis at the five. I suspect Vogel may be lobbying to trade for a second big. Which way the Lakers ultimately go will be determined by which player they’re able to make a deal for. Every team needs bigger 3&D wings so the Lakers just might have better luck trading for a modern two-way center.

Here are three modern center trade targets who can stretch the floor and protect the rim and have the two-way versatility to play big or small. Adding one of them would immediately make the Lakers bigger and better.

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1. PACERS’ MYLES TURNER

25-Years Old. 6′ 11,” 250 lb center. 2-Yrs, $17.5M.
Averaging 12.7/7.5/1.1/3.0. Shooting 52.3/40.4/69.8%.

Trading for Myles Turner should be the Lakers top priority once all of their players will be eligible to be traded on January 15th. There is no other player now on the trade market who could match the impact Turner could have.

Myles’ 40% 3-point shooting and league best rim protection would upgrade Lakers at both ends. He would allow Vogel to play his preferred two bigs, Anthony Davis his preferred four, and LeBron James his preferred three. There’s a chance the Lakers’ experiment with Davis at the four may be over. While LA could still trade for a 3&D wing, the smarter move in the end could be to do what’s natural and go big by trading for Myles Turner.

The beauty of trading for Turner is he lets the Lakers to play big or small. Imagine a Lakers’ front court with the NBA’s #1 and #3 best shot blockers, both of whom can stretch the floor with the three or attack the rim. The Lakers have an opportunity to solidify what has been an rotating door at center the last three years. While centers may not be valued as much as they once were, Turner could be the catalyst that transforms the Lakers.

The Lakers should trade anybody on the roster other than James or Davis to acquire Turner, starting with a package of THT, Nunn, and whatever else Indy wants. Turner is the best solution to fix the Lakers’ size problems.

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2. ROCKETS’ CHRISTIAN WOOD

26-Years Old. 6/ 9,” 214 lb center. 2-Yrs, $13.6M.
Averaging 15.5/11.0/2.4/0.9. Shooting 44.4/32.1/54.8%

Christian Wood is the same age as Myles Turner but was a late developer who’s played in less than half of Turner’s 400 NBA games. He’s potentially a better scorer and rebounder than Turner but not as good a shot blocker.

Wood’s an impressive talent who has the potential to be a miniature version of Anthony Davis. Offensively, he’s got a great stroke from three and attacks the rim with ferocity and physicality. He’s a better 3-point shooter than 32%. Defensively, he’s not as good a shot blocker but is more athletic than Turner and could develop into the kind of defender who can actually guard five positions. He’s less proven and clearly a bigger risk and reward than Turner.

Like Turner, Wood would give the Lakers the ability to play big or small. And for the version of small they play to be a total aberration of name small ball. We’re talking about a very big, fast, and athletic team playing small ball. The Lakers may end up trading for a big 3&D wing but it will likely be because that’s the best deal they could get, not because they really want to go small with AD at the five. Wood is not Turner but he would be a gread add.

And like Turner, Wood adds youth and athleticism as well as size to the Lakers’ starters and roster while allowing Frank to play two bigs, LeBron to stay at the three, and Anthony to play his preferred power forward.

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3. MAGIC’S MO BAMBA

23-Years Old. 7′ 0,” 231 lb center. 2-Yrs, $7.5M.
Averaging 11.1/9.2/1.8/2.1. Shooting 45.4/34.1/70.8%.

Mo Bamba is having the best season in his young career. At 23, Mo is the youngest of the three stretch center targets. Finally getting a chance to start and play 30 minutes per game, Bamba is finally starting to shine.

Bamba at 23 is the youngest, biggest, and lowest paid of the three stretch centers the Lakers should target at the trade deadline. Like Wood, he’s only played in around 170 NBA games compared to over 400 for Myles Turner. Mo is probably the biggest gamble of the three stretch centers featured in this article but he also would have the least expensive price. For example, the Lakers might be able to get him straight up for Kendrick Nunn or THT.

But like with Turner and Wood, Bamba would give the Lakers the flexibility to play big or small, versatility that’s invaluable in the playoffs. There were questions about Bamba’s motor and work ethic but he now seems to get it. Because he only makes $7.5 million, it’s hard for the Magic to get fair value unless it’s in the form of draft picks, which does not bode well for the Lakers being able to trade for him. The question is what will they give up?

Mo Bamba would be a gamble but fits the mold of the modern NBA center who can stretch the floor and attack the rim on offense and protect the rim and challenge shooters on defense. Low risk, high reward trade target.