Lakerholics

It may be just an illusion but the Los Angeles Lakers finally turning the Denver Nuggets 11-game win streak into a 1-game losing streak may have done more than just getting that Denver monkey off of L.A.’s back.

What looked like a hopeless situation with the Los Angeles Lakers on the verge of being swept in the playoffs by the Denver Nuggets for the second straight year has now suddenly been replaced by a bright glimmer of hope.
While no NBA team has ever come back from being down 0–3 in a 7-game series, the Denver Nuggets’ Game-4 stumble may have opened the door for LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers to make a historic comeback.

The Lakers face what is thought to be an impossible challenge to beat the world champion Nuggets three more straight times to pull off the NBA’s first comeback from 0–3 yet the task suddenly does not seem undoable.
The way the Lakers won last night has suddenly put the world back into proper perspective. The Nuggets are no longer unbeatable and down 1–3, all L.A. needs to do is win three more games to achieve the impossible.

Momentum is a fair weather friend and getting the Nuggets’ monkey off the Lakers’ back has changed the controlling dynamic of this series from the Nuggets’ sweeping L.A. to the Lakers pulling off the impossible comeback.
Win in Denver on Monday and the Nuggets will suddenly be the team in the pressure cooker with just a 2–3 lead heading back to L.A. for Game 6, hoping and praying not to become the first NBA team to blow an 0–3 lead.

So let’s look at what the Lakers’ odds are for taking down the Nuggets and winning the 2024 NBA Championship and how Los Angeles’ finally beating Denver has changed the dynamics of this critical first round playoff series.

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What Are Lakers’ Odds of Winning?

There’s a reason why in the history of the NBA, no team has been able to come back after trailing 0–3 in a 7-game playoff series. In fact, Out of 154 teams who found themselves in that situation, none has ever come back.

The odds of the Lakers becoming the first NBA team in history to come back from an 0–3 playoff deficit are currently +1800, which means betting $100 on the Los Angeles to beat Denver in this series would win $1,800.
Taking this pipe dream further, the odds of the Los Angeles Lakers winning the NBA championship are currently +21000, which means betting $100 on the Lakers to win their 18th NBA championship would win $21,000.

While the Nuggets dominated the Lakers during their 11-game win streak, every game has been close and contested with the Lakers building first half leads but the Nuggets executing and closing out better to win the games.
The Nuggets obviously had the Lakers number during the 11-game stretch and took full advantage of their superior size and years of continuity to bully and punish the Lakers smaller lineups and unfamiliar players.

But that pattern may no longer hold now that the Los Angeles Lakers have figured out how to hold onto their first half leads and counter the Denver Nuggets’ second half pushes that cost them the series’ first three games.
With newfound confidence in their role players and no Denver monkey on their back, the Lakers have a unique opportunity to beat the champs three straight, including two in Denver, and turn the tables of embarrassment.

The Lakers surprisingly find themselves in a perfect scenario where they can turn a potential 4-game first round sweep into a historic odds-defying first-time-ever comeback from being down 0–3 in a 7-game playoff series.

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How Has Lakers’ Win Changed Series?

Can one game turn around a series? The Lakers 11-game losing streak to the Nuggets may have been the Trojan Horse the Nuggets quietly worried about as ball bounces and big shots kept impossibly falling Denver’s way.

The Lakers’ Game 4 triumph over the Nuggets was not just LeBron James and Los Angeles winning a token single game before accepting their 4–1 ‘Gentlemen’s Sweep’ and making their upcoming reservations for Cancun.
The Game 4 win was the Lakers finally breaking through and doing the one thing that been their Achilles heel during the 11 straight losses they had suffered against the Nuggets: their inability to adjust and keep a lead.

The driving theme of every Lakers-Nuggets game this season has been the Lakers’ failure to hold onto double digit leads in the second halves and fourth quarters of games with the blame justly going on L.A.’s role players.
Game after game, the same story unfolded. Although every game was close and the pattern similar with the Lakers taking a lead and Denver coming back, the streak got crazy as the Nuggets were blessed and Lakers cursed.

That’s why Denver stopped talking about the winning streak and why they should be worried about how Game 4 started and ended. The Lakers again again got off to strong start but also learned how to hang onto the lead.
The Lakers have a solid formula to beat the Nuggets and, until Game 4, it’s been more their inability to execute that formula in second halves that’s hurt them than anything Denver has or can do defensively to stop them.

Denver is in a tough spot. They’re suddenly getting outplayed by the Lakers and the basketball gods are starting to want pay back for the ball bounces and big shots that led to that 11-game win streak. Lakers will win it in 7.

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Who Needs To Step Up for Lakers?

The Los Angeles Lakers need LeBron James, Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves to have elite Games 5, 6, and 7 to come back and beat the Denver Nuggets in 7 games and continue the quest for #18.

That’s a big ask vs. Denver considering James age, Davis’ injury proclivity, Russell’s and Reave’s inconsistency but that’s what it will take to beat the world champs three times in a row, including twice in Mile High Denver.
On the other hand, that’s what it’s going to take to come back from down 0–3 against the world champion Nuggets. Come hell or high water, this is LeBron James glory story to write on his eternal campaign to be GOAT.

LeBron is wishing this into existence. What better way to crown his reign as GOAT than take down the world champs 4–3 in a reverse 4-game sweep on his way towards winning his 5th NBA championship and Finals MVP.
Time to cash in on all those bad calls and crazy bounces and hail Mary shots that benefited the Nuggets during that 11-game losing streak and see some ball bounces and big shots coming the Lakers way next 3 games.

The Lakers are outshooting the Nuggets from the field (49.9% to 46.0%), from deep (30.4%to 27.6%), and winning points-in-the-paint (58.5 to 57.5) but losing rebounding (46.3 to 40.50) and made-free-throws (15.0 to 13.5).
Offensively, the Lakers have 109.2 offensive rating, 112.7 defensive rating, and -3.5 net rating for the 4 playoff games. For Game 4, the Lakers posted an elite 115.5 offensive rating, 105.9 defensive rating, and +9.7 net rating.

The Lakers need to come out and play their best basketball game of the year on Monday night and turn the tables on the Denver Nuggets. L.A. has the momentum and the opportunity to pull off a miraculous comeback.

While the doubters and naysayers have declared the Los Angeles Lakers dead in the water after Game 2’s crushing loss, the reality is the Denver Nuggets are lucky to be up 2–0 and have just held serve on home court.

While last night’s discouraging loss to the Nuggets was the Lakers’ 10th straight in row, this was not only the closest game but also the first time the Lakers showcased their new 3-point prowess and almost won the game.
Headed back home to L.A., there’s no reason to believe the Lakers will be anything but greatly encouraged at how they shot the ball and competed last night. If anything, the Lakers cannot wait to play the Nuggets again.

The Lakers and Nuggets first round playoff series now moves to Los Angeles for two critical games on Thursday and Saturday nights, which the Lakers desperately need to win to even up the series at 2 games each.
While many NBA observers have already written the Lakers off after having lost ten straight games to the Nuggets, the reality despite the record is that the two teams are fairly evenly matched when both are fully healthy.

The Lakers’ problem is they’re missing two of their bigs in in 6′ 10″ forward Jarred Vanderbilt and 6′ 10″ forward Christian Wood. That’s left them with just three playable bigs: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and Jaxson Hayes.
The good news is there’s a realistic chance one of Vando or Wood may be healthy enough to play on Thursday. Having one or both of these players available the rest of this series and the rest of the playoffs could be critical.

Last season’s conference finals sweep and L.A.’s current 10-game losing streak have totally distorted how evenly matched L.A. and Denver are. Let’s look at the bad news and good news that support L.A. winning the series.

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The Bad News!

The Bad News is the Los Angeles Lakers lost their 10th straight game to the Denver Nuggets, blowing a 20-point lead and opportunity to steal home court advantage and set themselves up to win the series in L.A. in 6 games.

To say this was a crushing defeat is an understatement. After doing almost everything right to build a 15-point half-time lead and 20-point lead early in the 3rd quarter, the Lakers once again took their foot off the proverbial gas.
This time it was a 5-minute period in the third quarter that cut the lead in half and multiple stretches in the fourth quarter that eventually eliminated the rest of the Lakers’ lead and opened the door for the Nuggets win.

Statistically, the game was a reversal of Game 1, where the Nuggets outshot the Lakers from three by 21 points. This time, the Lakers’ newfound prowess from deep prevailed and L.A. won the 3-point war by 15 points.
Unfortunately, the Nuggets won the free throw battle in Game 2 by 5 made free throws after losing it to L.A. by 12 made free throws in Game 1. Lakers average 25 free throws per game but shot just 13 free throws in Game 2.

Once again, the Lakers’ lack of size due to the injuries to Christian Wood and Jarred Vanderbilt was costly as L.A. lost both the points-in-the-paint and offensive and defensive rebounding battles to the bigger Nuggets.
Los Angeles likely blew their best opportunity to make this a series. While the Lakers next two games are at home, the harsh reality is that the Denver Nuggets currently have a 4-game winning streak at Crypto.com Arena.

After losing their 10th straight game to Denver Nuggets, the odds of the Los Angeles Lakers turning things around and beating the world champions in four of the next five playoff games don’t even qualify as a puncher’s chance.

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The Good News!

The good news is, though the path is challenging and the odds long, the Los Angeles Lakers still have a realistic opportunity not only to win this series but also to win the Western Conference and make it to the NBA Finals.

Due to their slow start, the Lakers have essentially been in various levels of playoff mode for over a month. They’ve survived by focusing on winning one game at a time and that’s what we should expect the next two games.
When you’ve lost 10 in a row to them, it’s hard to believe all the Nuggets did by winning those two games in Denver was hold home court but that’s the truth. If the Lakers can win their two at home, the series will be even.

Despite losing both games, the Lakers shot better from the field (49.0% to 45.3%) and from deep (35.6% to 35.3%) than the Nuggets. Last year, Denver shot better from the field (49.3% to 47.6%) and from deep (40.3% to 34.9%).
Where the Lakers are getting killed in on the boards and in the paint but it looks like reinforcements may be on the way with both Christian Wood and Jarred Vanderbilt hopefully available to play starting Thursday night.

Right now, the Lakers can’t look any further ahead than the next game but if they can win Thursday and Saturday nights, the series will be tied 2–2 and the Lakers will be the team with the winning streak and momentum.
The addition of Wood and Vanderbilt should enable the Lakers to better match the Nuggets on the boards and in the paint and it’s highly unlikely the Nuggets will shoot more free throws than the Lakers going forward.

The basketball gods giveth and taketh. Sometimes, what almost kills a team actually makes them better. The Lakers are angry and hungry and still have a viable path not only to winning this series but also winning #18.

After losing a 9th straight game and critical 3-point battle to the Denver Nuggets, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves suddenly find themselves facing their possible final series as members of the Los Angeles Lakers.

Monday night’s critical Game 2 in Denver now looms as the last legitimate opportunity for Russell and Reaves to show Lakers’ ownership, front office, and coaching staff that they’re the backcourt of the future for this team.
After again being outscored from deep by the Denver Nuggets, the Los Angeles Lakers find themselves on the brink of falling behind 2–0 and potentially suffering their second straight humiliating playoff sweep.

Unless Russell and Reaves can bounce back Monday and help the Lakers even their first round series with the Nuggets at 1 game each, it’s highly unlikely either player would still be wearing purple and gold next year.
That means Monday night’s Game 2 in Denver is a ‘must win’ game that will not only determine who likely wins this series but could also have major ramifications on what the Los Angeles Lakers decide to do this summer.

Getting swept again by the Nuggets would likely result in the Lakers finally accepting they could not win a championship with a D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves backcourt and moving on from both players this summer.
Bouncing back with a big win to tie the series on Monday, however, could completely change the dynamic of the Lakers’ playoffs and set them up for what could be a dramatic 6-game first round triumph over the Nuggets.

Let’s take a closer look at what happened last night and what the Lakers need to change in Game 2 on Monday to even up the series and get back on track to upsetting the world champion Nuggets in 6-game series.

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What Lakers Hoped Would Happen in Game 1?

Since February 1, the Los Angeles Lakers have transformed their formula for winning games by shooting a dramatically higher percentage on 3-point shots, reducing their reliance on points in the paint and made free throws.

As you can see from the above chart, the Lakers’ formula from the start of the season to the end of January has essentially been the same as it has been since the Lakers signed LeBron James as a free agent 4 years ago.
The Lakers lose close to 10 points per game from their 3-point shooting differential but are able to make up most of that difference by outscoring opponents via made free throws and points in the point per game.

Starting back in February, when Darvin Ham reinstated D’Angelo Russell as the team’s starting point guard, the Lakers’ 3-point shooting has taken off and L.A. has shot a torrid 39.3% from deep, second best in the league.
The result has been a Lakers team that went 23–10 (5th best in league) with an offensive rating of 118.4 (3rd best in the league), a defensive rating of 114.7 (21st in the league), and a net rating of 3.7 (12th in the league).

The Lakers thought improved 3-point shooting would fix their problem with the Nuggets in last season’s conference finals where Denver outscored them on threes by 15 points per game in a series lost by 6 points per game.
Unfortunately, the Lakers laid an egg and shot a miserable 27.6% on just 29 attempts while the Nuggets shot 35.7% on 42 attempts, leading to a huge negative 21-point 3-point shooting differential in a game lost by 11 points.

Lakers need to stay positive and understand this is a 7-game series and all the Nuggets did was hold home court in Game 1. Lakers improved 3-ball game is legitimate. All they need to do is to hit their shots Monday night.

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What Has To Happen In Game 2 For Lakers To Win?

The Los Angeles Lakers must take and make more 3-point shots Monday night than they did last night if they want to have a realistic chance at surviving and winning this first round series against the Denver Nuggets.

The above chart shows the Lakers individual player 3-point stats since February 1st. L.A. has 3 starters shooting over 40% and 4 starters shooting better than the 36% league average. Only Anthony Davis is below 37%.
The Lakers backcourt of D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves are the team’s two highest volume 3-point shooters, averaging 8.6 and 5.5 attempted threes per game, followed by LeBron James 4.8 attempted threes per game.

While James shot well from deep hitting 3 of 5, Russell was a dreadful 1 of 9, Reaves 2 of 6, Hachimura 2 of 4, Davis 0 of 4, and Prince 1 of 3. As a team, the Lakers only took 29 threes while making just 8 for a miserable 27.6%.
The poor 3-point shooting hurt the Lakers’ spacing and made it difficult for LeBron James and Anthony Davis to attack the paint, resulting in L.A. actually losing the points-in-the-paint battle by 10 points to the Nuggets.

The Lakers will need to hit their 3-point shots Monday night if they hope to have a realistic chance to even the series at 1 game each. They don’t need to shoot 40% but they at least need to make enough threes to win the game.
Last night, the Lakers lost the game by 11 points. Had they shot 12 for 29 instead of 8 for 29, they would have won the game. The reality is the Lakers need to take and make more threes if they want to win on Monday night.

The Lakers made the dramatic improvement in 3-point shooting they needed. Now they just need to go out there and shoot the ball the way they’ve done the last couple of months. Do that and they’ll beat Denver.

While the Nuggets are a tough matchup for the Lakers, having swept them in last year’s conference finals and beaten them eight straight games, this is not this year’s conference finals and these are not last year’s Lakers team.

The media loves to create headline stories about how the Nuggets are the Lakers’ daddy and how L.A. will be lucky to win one or two games at best from Denver when the two teams meet in the first round of the playoffs.
What the media is not considering is a first round playoff series between the Lakers and Nuggets will be dramatically different than those two teams meeting in the conference finals after getting rolling with two series wins.

Having to face a very dangerous Lakers team in the playoffs first round is definitely not what Mike Malone and the Nuggets would have preferred, especially considering how red hot the Lakers have been the last month.
The Lakers would have finished April undefeated were it not one loss without both James and Davis and one without Davis. They still finished 5–2 with the #5 offensive rating, #15 defensive rating, and #10 net rating.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets blew a 23-point lead and lost 121–120 to the #14 Spurs, not only losing the #1 seed to the Thunder and falling to #2 but also suddenly finding themselves facing the hungry and dangerous Lakers.
Unlike last season when the Lakers were tired, weary, and slowed by injuries by the time they got to the conference finals, this time Los Angeles will be fresher, deeper, bigger, healthier, and hungrier than Denver.

The oddsmakers have the Nuggets as heavy favorites to beat the Lakers in their first round matchup. $100 bet on the Lakers to win would bring back $275. Gamblers would have to put up $350 to win $100 if Denver triumphs.
The path for the Lakers who are the road team to win the series is to steal one of the first two games in Denver, sweep Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles, lose Game 5 in Denver, and close out the series by taking Game 6 in L.A.

The answers to these five critical roster questions will determine whether the Los Angeles Lakers can pull off a surprise upset of the world champion Denver Nuggets in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs.

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Can AD Control The Joker?

If the Los Angeles Lakers are going to upset the Denver Nuggets in their first round series, Anthony Davis will have to figure out how to match or neutralize Nikola Jokic, who’s now likely to win his second MVP award.

In last year’s conference finals, the Nuggets swept the Lakers in four games, three of which were close games, with Nikola Jokic supposedly dominating Anthony Davis at both ends of the court during the series.
Just like the media likes to portray the Nuggets as having dominated the Lakers in last year’s conference finals, they also love pushing the story that Jokic dominated Davis, even though their individual stats were similar.

In last year’s conference finals, Jokic averaged 27.8 points, 14.5 rebounds, 11.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.3 blocks, 3.8 turnover in 42.0 minutes per game shooting 50.6% from the field, 47.1% from deep, and 77.8% from the line.
Anthony Davis meanwhile averaged a similar 26.8 points, 14.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 2.8 blocks, 1.5 turnovers in 41.2 minutes per game shooting 49.3% from the field, 50.0% from deep, and 87.5% from the line.

While Jokic and Davis seem to be fairly equal when it came down to the individual stats for last season’s conference finals, it seemed that every time the Nuggets needed a big play, Nikola was there while AD was not.
This was confirmed by Joker dominating AD in plus/minus, where he posted a +9.8 vs. AD’s -9.0. Jokic’s plus/minus for the series was topped only by Murray’s +10.0 whereas AD’s -9.0 was second worst to Russell’s -11.8.

The major challenge for the Lakers is deciding how to guard Nikola Jokic. Do they have Anthony Davis or Rui Hachimura defend Nikola Jokic? Or do they double or trap the Joker in pick-and-rolls to get ball out of his hands?
Ideally, the Lakers’ best option may be to force Jokic to be a scorer rather than a facilitator, which would mean having Davis defend him one-on-one with the other defenders sticking with the other Nuggets and not helping.

The Lakers need to make Nikola Jokic one dimensional by turning him into a scorer on offense with Anthony Davis playing him one-on-one and a target on defense with AD attacking him in the paint and from the line.

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Can LeBron Still Dominate?

While Anthony Davis holding his own with Nikola Jokic is critical, the Lakers will also need 39-year old LeBron James to be dominant like he has been this season if they hope to upset the Nuggets in the first round.

Meeting the Nuggets in the first round could actually be an advantage for the Lakers as LeBron James should be much healthier and fresher than he was when L.A. played Denver in last season’s Western Conference Finals.
More importantly, James worked hard this offseason to fix his 3-point shot and the result has been great. Since February 1, LeBron has averaged 2.0 made threes per game on 4.6 attempts per game for 43.5% from deep.

LeBron James’ 21st season might go down as one of the best in his career. Since February 1, LeBron has averaged 26.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 9.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 3.7 turnovers in 36.2 minutes per game.
The turnaround in James’ and the Lakers’ 3-point game as a team has been one of L.A.’s major improvements on offense since last year’s conference finals, where James shot just 26.9% and the team just 34.9% from deep.

The other area where James contributions will be dramatically greater than in last year’s conference finals will be defensively. LeBron is now in full playoff mode, which means he is no longer taking off plays on defense.
The defensive job LeBron James did on Zion Williamson to win a spot in th0e 7/8 Play-In game last Sunday was elite and showed that the King is not afraid to take on tough defensive assignments when needed by his team.

One adjustment the Lakers will need to make for the Denver series is to run more plays and rely less on Davis and James isolation plays. The Lakers are a better and more dangerous team when their offense is less predictable.
The perfect example was James turning control over to Reaves, whose elite drive-and-dish to Russell for the clutch corner three that essentially sealed the Los Angeles Lakers’ Play-In win over the New Orleans Pelicans.

For the Los Angeles Lakers to upset the world champion Denver Nuggets in their looming first round playoff matchup, they will need a healthier and fresher LeBron James to outplay Jamal Murray and lead his team to victory.

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Can DLO Redeem Himself?

After being played off the court against the Denver Nuggets in last year’s conference finals and almost being traded at the trade deadline, D’Angelo Russell proceeded to reinvent himself as the third star the Lakers needed.

After getting injured and losing his starting point guard role in December, D’Angelo Russell’s future with the Lakers looked shaky at best. While sitting on the bench, however, DLO came up with a career-defining observation.
Rather than deferring to superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis, DLO realized that the smarter thing to do was to be extremely aggressive to take full advantage of the lack of attention paid to him by opposing defenses.

When Darvin Ham re-inserted D’Angelo Russell back into the Lakers’ starting lineup, he suddenly became an entirely different player, increasing his shot attempts and reinventing himself as a volume 3-point shooter.
Over last half of the regular season, DLO averaged 20.4 points, 3.2 boards, 6.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.3 turnovers in 35.5 minutes per game shooting 45.0% from field, 42.6% from deep, and 85.7% from the line.

D’Angelo Russell provided the Lakers with the elite high volume, high percentage, lethal, dead-eye 3-point shooter they desperately needed to create space for and complement LeBron and AD as the team’s third star.
Darvin Ham has also shown more patience with Russell and has given him a green light to shoot as many threes as he can. Hopefully, Ham trusts DLO enough to give him the rope he needs when the Lakers play the Nuggets.

For his part, D’Angelo has continued to be aggressive both with his volume 3-point shooting, crafty drives into the paint, and top grade playmaking. He finished the second half of the season taking almost as many shots as LBJ.
In the process of reinventing himself, DLO set a new franchise record for the most 3-point shots made by a Lakers player in a single regular season, by making a grand total of 226 3-point shots during the 2023–24 season.

D’Angelo Russell has a legitimate opportunity to become the Los Angeles Lakers’ point guard of the future if he can redeem himself and deliver as the third Lakers star LeBron James and Anthony Davis desperately need.

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Can Lakers Control Murray?

While Nikola Jokic is the sun around which the Nuggets universe revolves, Jamal Murray is the player the Lakers need to control if they’re going to have any chance to upset the Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs.

It was Murray who destroyed the Lakers perimeter defenders to lead the Nuggets with 32.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, 1.8 turnovers in 41.1 minutes per game with shooting splits of 52.7/40.5/95.0%.
Jamal not only had a team best +10.0 plus/minus per game for the series but also recorded the biggest jump in points per game in NBA history going from 20.0 ppg for regular season to 32.5 for Western Conference Finals.

In last year’s conference finals, Murray was defended by multiple Lakers players, including Dennis Schroder, Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, and Jarred Vanderbilt, none of whom had the defensive chops to slow Jamal.
This season, the Lakers replaced Schroder with Gabe Vincent, who’s finally healthy and has shown promise as an elite point-of-attack defender along with Spencer Dinwiddie, both of whom will be called to guard Murray.

The Lakers’ strategy for Jamal Murray should be similar to their strategy for Nikola Jokic, which is to defend him one-on-one without trapping and doubling and don’t allow him to be both a big-time scorer and facilitator.
The key is not allowing Murray to raise his regular season scoring average from 20.0 ppg to 32.5 ppg in the conference finals. This season, Murray averaged 21.2 ppg this season. Lakers will need to hold him to 25.0 ppg.

As with Jokic, the Lakers have to make Murray work on defense, which should be easier this season since the Lakers have now built strong, solid continuity with a starting lineup that’s become an offensive juggernaut.
With guards Russell and Reaves, forwards James and Hachimura, and center Davis, the Lakers starting lineup boasts players who can easily make Jamal Murray work on defense and hopefully get him into foul difficulty.

The Lakers need to control Jamal Murray offensively with elite one-on-one defense and not allow him to average 30.0 ppg and defensively by attacking him and running offense through Russell, Reaves, or whomever he guards.

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Can L.A. Outshoot Denver?

The Lakers’ surprise wild card in their upcoming first round matchup with the world champion Nuggets will be their sudden dramatic improvement in 3-point shooting proficiency led by LeBron James and D’Angelo Russell.

Since LeBron James joined the Lakers, the team’s winning formula has been to dominate points-in-the-paint and free-throws-made by +10 points per game to offset their -10 points per game 3-point shooting differential.
But since February 1, the Lakers have continued to win PIP and FTM by 10 points per game but are now close to breaking even when it comes to the threes they made versus the threes made by opponents in any game.

Since February 1, the Lakers’ 39.3% 3-point percentage was the best in the Western Conference and second best in the entire NBA behind the Celtics 39.9%. The Nuggets meanwhile shot 38.1% from deep, which was 7th.
The Nuggets are going to see a much more dangerous 3-point shooting Lakers team in the first round of the playoffs than the one they easily outshot from deep by 40.3% to 34.9% during last year’s conference finals.

In last year’s conference finals, the Nuggets won the 3-point shooting battle over the Lakers by 15.8 points per game. Note that this was in a four-game playoff series where they won each game by an average of just 6.0 points.
Imagine how different the upcoming first round battle is going to be if the Lakers actually outscore the Nuggets from deep. The Lakers newfound 3-point shooting prowess has totally changed their formula for winning.

By changing their winning formula, the Lakers have a unique opportunity to pull off a blockbuster upset that not only eliminates their primary West competitor but also leaves the door to the 2024 NBA Finals wide open.
The Lakers new 3-point shooting prowess has completed a transformation of their offense into a juggernaut where they can win games by raining threes as well as dominating points-in-the-paint and free-throws-made.

The Lakers changing their formula for how to win games so they no longer lose the 3-point shooting battles is their surprise wild card that will erase the Nuggets traditional edge and help the L.A. upset Denver in 6 games.

While they’ve sputtered most of the year and will likely have to win a play-in game to make the postseason, the Los Angeles Lakers have suddenly become the scary, dangerous team nobody wants to meet in the playoffs.

What’s suddenly made the Lakers so dangerous is not just that they’re winning, it’s how and to whom they’re doing it. After a midseason offensive transformation, the Lakers are now healthy and peaking at the right time.
While they’re still playing bully ball and dominating points-in-the-paint and free-throws-made, the Lakers have suddenly transformed their poor 3-point shooting from their worst team weakness into a new found strength.

L.A.’s 3-point shooting transformation has totally changed their blueprint or formula for how to win games. Since February 1st, L.A.’s 39.6% on threes is second best in the entire NBA and their 20–8 win-loss record third best. Over the last three months, the Lakers have increased the number of threes they make per game while reducing the number of threes opponents make per game so their 3-point differential per game is now very close to zero.

Slowly but surely, the Lakers have completely transformed their 3-point shooting from their greatest weakness to a new found strength. The first three months, the Lakers lost 3-point differential by -9.6 points (10.9–14.1).
After losing the January 3–point war by -9.9 points (11.8–15.1), the Lakers improved, only losing February by -3.3 points (12.3–13.4), March by -1.2 points (13.3–13.7), and finally breaking even over last 9-games (13.0–13.0).

In the process, the Lakers have also shown that they can hold their own against the top teams in the league, posting big wins over top-10 teams like the Celtics, Timberwolves, Thunder, Bucks, Clippers, Suns, and 76ers.
While they need to prove they can beat teams like the Nuggets and Jazz, whose low-gravity centers Jokic and Sabonis are tough matchups for AD, the Lakers have become the team nobody wants to meet in the playoffs.

Let’s take a closer look at how the Lakers new found 3-point shooting prowess has changed their formula for winning games and made them a far scarier and far more dangerous team to meet in the NBA playoffs.

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Lakers Confident of Playoff Chances Regardless of Seeding

Right now, the Los Angeles Lakers are 9th in the West with a 44–33 record, just 1.0 game behind the 8th place Sacramento Kings and only 1.5 games behind the 7th place New Orleans Pelicans and 6th place Phoenix Suns.

Moving up the Western Conference competitive standings has been extremely difficult. Despite winning 22 of their last 33 games, the Lakers have been stuck in 9th or 10th place in the West for the last 74 days.
L.A. has been locked in 9th or 10th place in the West since January 21st when their win-loss record was 22–22. Now they find themselves with just 5 games left in the season to move up to the 6th, 7th, or 8th seed in West.

At this point, the Lakers’ are understandably strategically not worrying about their final seeding and instead are just focused on winning every single game they play, confident they can survive the play-in tourney.
With James and Davis healthy and playing like top-10 superstars, a starting lineup that’s an offensive juggernaut, and dramatically improved 3-point shooting, the Lakers have become every NBA team’s worst nightmare.

The Lakers’ 5 remaining games will include home games against the Cavs, Warriors, and Timberwolves and road games against the Grizzlies and Pelicans. The Lakers’ goal is to win all 5 games to finish year with 49 wins.
The Kings lead the Lakers by 2 losses and have 3 road games against the Knicks, Celtics, and Nets and 3 home games against the Pelicans, Suns, and Trail Blazers. The Kings won season series and own tiebreaker over Lakers.

The Pelicans have 5 games remaining in the season. They’re at home for the Spurs game next and the Lakers on last day of the season. In between, they have 3 road games against the Trail Blazers, Kings, and Warriors.
Finally, the Phoenix Suns have 6 games remaining in the regular season, including home games against the Timberwolves, Pelicans, and Clippers followed by road games against the Clippers, Kings, and Timberwolves.

The Los Angeles Lakers are confident they can survive the play-in tourney and make the NBA playoffs as the 7th or 8th seed, win first round matchup against the Timberwolves, Nuggets, or Thunder, and move on from there.

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Lakers Suddenly Getting Healthy And Peaking At Right Time

Over last 9 games, the Lakers led the entire league in multiple categories, including their 8–1 record, 123.3 points per game, 22.3 free throw makes per game, 40.8 defensive rebounds per game, and 49.9 rebounds per game.

While winning 8 of 9 games, the Lakers had the NBA’s 10th best offensive rating, 5th best defensive rating, and 6th best net rating. Most importantly, they avoided a negative 3-point shooting differential during those 9 games.
Instead, they made same number of threes as they allowed opponents to make during 9-game stretch for a 0.0 3-point shooting differential while still winning PIP by 8.9 points, FTM by 3.6 points, for total of 12.5 points.

Over that recent 9-game stretch, the Los Angeles Lakers’ starting lineup shot lights out, averaging a red hot 105.4 ppg, led by Davis’ 27.4 ppg, James 24.8 ppg, Russell’s 20.0 ppg, Hachimura’s 17.2 ppg, and Reaves 16.0 ppg.
Most importantly, the Lakers continued to shoot the ball well from every level, shooting a league third-best 49.7% from the field, a league 10th-best 38.0% from deep, and a league 5th-best 82.4% from the free throw line.

Ideally, the Lakers will win their five remaining games and at least jump from 9th place in the West to 7th or 8th place or with a little bit of good luck all the way up to 6th place in the West to avoid the play-in tournament.
Regardless, the Lakers are not worried about their seeding and are fully confident they can handle whatever challenge is put in front of them. They just need to keep on focusing on winning every single game they play.

The beauty of their new winning formula is the Lakers no longer need to have a 10 point advantage in points-in-the-paint and free-throws-made to offset a negative 10-point disadvantage from 3-point shooting differential.
Being able to transform their 3-point shooting from a big disadvantage to a positive advantage has completely transformed the Lakers’ chances to win their 18th NBA championship from a pipe dream to a possible miracle.

The Los Angeles Lakers will start the NBA playoffs as one of the hottest and healthiest teams in the NBA and a team that none of the other teams in the West want to meet in the first two rounds or the East in the NBA Finals.