Lakerholics

After losing a 9th straight game and critical 3-point battle to the Denver Nuggets, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves suddenly find themselves facing their possible final series as members of the Los Angeles Lakers.

Monday night’s critical Game 2 in Denver now looms as the last legitimate opportunity for Russell and Reaves to show Lakers’ ownership, front office, and coaching staff that they’re the backcourt of the future for this team.
After again being outscored from deep by the Denver Nuggets, the Los Angeles Lakers find themselves on the brink of falling behind 2–0 and potentially suffering their second straight humiliating playoff sweep.

Unless Russell and Reaves can bounce back Monday and help the Lakers even their first round series with the Nuggets at 1 game each, it’s highly unlikely either player would still be wearing purple and gold next year.
That means Monday night’s Game 2 in Denver is a ‘must win’ game that will not only determine who likely wins this series but could also have major ramifications on what the Los Angeles Lakers decide to do this summer.

Getting swept again by the Nuggets would likely result in the Lakers finally accepting they could not win a championship with a D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves backcourt and moving on from both players this summer.
Bouncing back with a big win to tie the series on Monday, however, could completely change the dynamic of the Lakers’ playoffs and set them up for what could be a dramatic 6-game first round triumph over the Nuggets.

Let’s take a closer look at what happened last night and what the Lakers need to change in Game 2 on Monday to even up the series and get back on track to upsetting the world champion Nuggets in 6-game series.

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What Lakers Hoped Would Happen in Game 1?

Since February 1, the Los Angeles Lakers have transformed their formula for winning games by shooting a dramatically higher percentage on 3-point shots, reducing their reliance on points in the paint and made free throws.

As you can see from the above chart, the Lakers’ formula from the start of the season to the end of January has essentially been the same as it has been since the Lakers signed LeBron James as a free agent 4 years ago.
The Lakers lose close to 10 points per game from their 3-point shooting differential but are able to make up most of that difference by outscoring opponents via made free throws and points in the point per game.

Starting back in February, when Darvin Ham reinstated D’Angelo Russell as the team’s starting point guard, the Lakers’ 3-point shooting has taken off and L.A. has shot a torrid 39.3% from deep, second best in the league.
The result has been a Lakers team that went 23–10 (5th best in league) with an offensive rating of 118.4 (3rd best in the league), a defensive rating of 114.7 (21st in the league), and a net rating of 3.7 (12th in the league).

The Lakers thought improved 3-point shooting would fix their problem with the Nuggets in last season’s conference finals where Denver outscored them on threes by 15 points per game in a series lost by 6 points per game.
Unfortunately, the Lakers laid an egg and shot a miserable 27.6% on just 29 attempts while the Nuggets shot 35.7% on 42 attempts, leading to a huge negative 21-point 3-point shooting differential in a game lost by 11 points.

Lakers need to stay positive and understand this is a 7-game series and all the Nuggets did was hold home court in Game 1. Lakers improved 3-ball game is legitimate. All they need to do is to hit their shots Monday night.

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What Has To Happen In Game 2 For Lakers To Win?

The Los Angeles Lakers must take and make more 3-point shots Monday night than they did last night if they want to have a realistic chance at surviving and winning this first round series against the Denver Nuggets.

The above chart shows the Lakers individual player 3-point stats since February 1st. L.A. has 3 starters shooting over 40% and 4 starters shooting better than the 36% league average. Only Anthony Davis is below 37%.
The Lakers backcourt of D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves are the team’s two highest volume 3-point shooters, averaging 8.6 and 5.5 attempted threes per game, followed by LeBron James 4.8 attempted threes per game.

While James shot well from deep hitting 3 of 5, Russell was a dreadful 1 of 9, Reaves 2 of 6, Hachimura 2 of 4, Davis 0 of 4, and Prince 1 of 3. As a team, the Lakers only took 29 threes while making just 8 for a miserable 27.6%.
The poor 3-point shooting hurt the Lakers’ spacing and made it difficult for LeBron James and Anthony Davis to attack the paint, resulting in L.A. actually losing the points-in-the-paint battle by 10 points to the Nuggets.

The Lakers will need to hit their 3-point shots Monday night if they hope to have a realistic chance to even the series at 1 game each. They don’t need to shoot 40% but they at least need to make enough threes to win the game.
Last night, the Lakers lost the game by 11 points. Had they shot 12 for 29 instead of 8 for 29, they would have won the game. The reality is the Lakers need to take and make more threes if they want to win on Monday night.

The Lakers made the dramatic improvement in 3-point shooting they needed. Now they just need to go out there and shoot the ball the way they’ve done the last couple of months. Do that and they’ll beat Denver.

While the Nuggets are a tough matchup for the Lakers, having swept them in last year’s conference finals and beaten them eight straight games, this is not this year’s conference finals and these are not last year’s Lakers team.

The media loves to create headline stories about how the Nuggets are the Lakers’ daddy and how L.A. will be lucky to win one or two games at best from Denver when the two teams meet in the first round of the playoffs.
What the media is not considering is a first round playoff series between the Lakers and Nuggets will be dramatically different than those two teams meeting in the conference finals after getting rolling with two series wins.

Having to face a very dangerous Lakers team in the playoffs first round is definitely not what Mike Malone and the Nuggets would have preferred, especially considering how red hot the Lakers have been the last month.
The Lakers would have finished April undefeated were it not one loss without both James and Davis and one without Davis. They still finished 5–2 with the #5 offensive rating, #15 defensive rating, and #10 net rating.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets blew a 23-point lead and lost 121–120 to the #14 Spurs, not only losing the #1 seed to the Thunder and falling to #2 but also suddenly finding themselves facing the hungry and dangerous Lakers.
Unlike last season when the Lakers were tired, weary, and slowed by injuries by the time they got to the conference finals, this time Los Angeles will be fresher, deeper, bigger, healthier, and hungrier than Denver.

The oddsmakers have the Nuggets as heavy favorites to beat the Lakers in their first round matchup. $100 bet on the Lakers to win would bring back $275. Gamblers would have to put up $350 to win $100 if Denver triumphs.
The path for the Lakers who are the road team to win the series is to steal one of the first two games in Denver, sweep Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles, lose Game 5 in Denver, and close out the series by taking Game 6 in L.A.

The answers to these five critical roster questions will determine whether the Los Angeles Lakers can pull off a surprise upset of the world champion Denver Nuggets in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs.

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Can AD Control The Joker?

If the Los Angeles Lakers are going to upset the Denver Nuggets in their first round series, Anthony Davis will have to figure out how to match or neutralize Nikola Jokic, who’s now likely to win his second MVP award.

In last year’s conference finals, the Nuggets swept the Lakers in four games, three of which were close games, with Nikola Jokic supposedly dominating Anthony Davis at both ends of the court during the series.
Just like the media likes to portray the Nuggets as having dominated the Lakers in last year’s conference finals, they also love pushing the story that Jokic dominated Davis, even though their individual stats were similar.

In last year’s conference finals, Jokic averaged 27.8 points, 14.5 rebounds, 11.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.3 blocks, 3.8 turnover in 42.0 minutes per game shooting 50.6% from the field, 47.1% from deep, and 77.8% from the line.
Anthony Davis meanwhile averaged a similar 26.8 points, 14.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 2.8 blocks, 1.5 turnovers in 41.2 minutes per game shooting 49.3% from the field, 50.0% from deep, and 87.5% from the line.

While Jokic and Davis seem to be fairly equal when it came down to the individual stats for last season’s conference finals, it seemed that every time the Nuggets needed a big play, Nikola was there while AD was not.
This was confirmed by Joker dominating AD in plus/minus, where he posted a +9.8 vs. AD’s -9.0. Jokic’s plus/minus for the series was topped only by Murray’s +10.0 whereas AD’s -9.0 was second worst to Russell’s -11.8.

The major challenge for the Lakers is deciding how to guard Nikola Jokic. Do they have Anthony Davis or Rui Hachimura defend Nikola Jokic? Or do they double or trap the Joker in pick-and-rolls to get ball out of his hands?
Ideally, the Lakers’ best option may be to force Jokic to be a scorer rather than a facilitator, which would mean having Davis defend him one-on-one with the other defenders sticking with the other Nuggets and not helping.

The Lakers need to make Nikola Jokic one dimensional by turning him into a scorer on offense with Anthony Davis playing him one-on-one and a target on defense with AD attacking him in the paint and from the line.

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Can LeBron Still Dominate?

While Anthony Davis holding his own with Nikola Jokic is critical, the Lakers will also need 39-year old LeBron James to be dominant like he has been this season if they hope to upset the Nuggets in the first round.

Meeting the Nuggets in the first round could actually be an advantage for the Lakers as LeBron James should be much healthier and fresher than he was when L.A. played Denver in last season’s Western Conference Finals.
More importantly, James worked hard this offseason to fix his 3-point shot and the result has been great. Since February 1, LeBron has averaged 2.0 made threes per game on 4.6 attempts per game for 43.5% from deep.

LeBron James’ 21st season might go down as one of the best in his career. Since February 1, LeBron has averaged 26.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 9.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 3.7 turnovers in 36.2 minutes per game.
The turnaround in James’ and the Lakers’ 3-point game as a team has been one of L.A.’s major improvements on offense since last year’s conference finals, where James shot just 26.9% and the team just 34.9% from deep.

The other area where James contributions will be dramatically greater than in last year’s conference finals will be defensively. LeBron is now in full playoff mode, which means he is no longer taking off plays on defense.
The defensive job LeBron James did on Zion Williamson to win a spot in th0e 7/8 Play-In game last Sunday was elite and showed that the King is not afraid to take on tough defensive assignments when needed by his team.

One adjustment the Lakers will need to make for the Denver series is to run more plays and rely less on Davis and James isolation plays. The Lakers are a better and more dangerous team when their offense is less predictable.
The perfect example was James turning control over to Reaves, whose elite drive-and-dish to Russell for the clutch corner three that essentially sealed the Los Angeles Lakers’ Play-In win over the New Orleans Pelicans.

For the Los Angeles Lakers to upset the world champion Denver Nuggets in their looming first round playoff matchup, they will need a healthier and fresher LeBron James to outplay Jamal Murray and lead his team to victory.

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Can DLO Redeem Himself?

After being played off the court against the Denver Nuggets in last year’s conference finals and almost being traded at the trade deadline, D’Angelo Russell proceeded to reinvent himself as the third star the Lakers needed.

After getting injured and losing his starting point guard role in December, D’Angelo Russell’s future with the Lakers looked shaky at best. While sitting on the bench, however, DLO came up with a career-defining observation.
Rather than deferring to superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis, DLO realized that the smarter thing to do was to be extremely aggressive to take full advantage of the lack of attention paid to him by opposing defenses.

When Darvin Ham re-inserted D’Angelo Russell back into the Lakers’ starting lineup, he suddenly became an entirely different player, increasing his shot attempts and reinventing himself as a volume 3-point shooter.
Over last half of the regular season, DLO averaged 20.4 points, 3.2 boards, 6.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.3 turnovers in 35.5 minutes per game shooting 45.0% from field, 42.6% from deep, and 85.7% from the line.

D’Angelo Russell provided the Lakers with the elite high volume, high percentage, lethal, dead-eye 3-point shooter they desperately needed to create space for and complement LeBron and AD as the team’s third star.
Darvin Ham has also shown more patience with Russell and has given him a green light to shoot as many threes as he can. Hopefully, Ham trusts DLO enough to give him the rope he needs when the Lakers play the Nuggets.

For his part, D’Angelo has continued to be aggressive both with his volume 3-point shooting, crafty drives into the paint, and top grade playmaking. He finished the second half of the season taking almost as many shots as LBJ.
In the process of reinventing himself, DLO set a new franchise record for the most 3-point shots made by a Lakers player in a single regular season, by making a grand total of 226 3-point shots during the 2023–24 season.

D’Angelo Russell has a legitimate opportunity to become the Los Angeles Lakers’ point guard of the future if he can redeem himself and deliver as the third Lakers star LeBron James and Anthony Davis desperately need.

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Can Lakers Control Murray?

While Nikola Jokic is the sun around which the Nuggets universe revolves, Jamal Murray is the player the Lakers need to control if they’re going to have any chance to upset the Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs.

It was Murray who destroyed the Lakers perimeter defenders to lead the Nuggets with 32.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, 1.8 turnovers in 41.1 minutes per game with shooting splits of 52.7/40.5/95.0%.
Jamal not only had a team best +10.0 plus/minus per game for the series but also recorded the biggest jump in points per game in NBA history going from 20.0 ppg for regular season to 32.5 for Western Conference Finals.

In last year’s conference finals, Murray was defended by multiple Lakers players, including Dennis Schroder, Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, and Jarred Vanderbilt, none of whom had the defensive chops to slow Jamal.
This season, the Lakers replaced Schroder with Gabe Vincent, who’s finally healthy and has shown promise as an elite point-of-attack defender along with Spencer Dinwiddie, both of whom will be called to guard Murray.

The Lakers’ strategy for Jamal Murray should be similar to their strategy for Nikola Jokic, which is to defend him one-on-one without trapping and doubling and don’t allow him to be both a big-time scorer and facilitator.
The key is not allowing Murray to raise his regular season scoring average from 20.0 ppg to 32.5 ppg in the conference finals. This season, Murray averaged 21.2 ppg this season. Lakers will need to hold him to 25.0 ppg.

As with Jokic, the Lakers have to make Murray work on defense, which should be easier this season since the Lakers have now built strong, solid continuity with a starting lineup that’s become an offensive juggernaut.
With guards Russell and Reaves, forwards James and Hachimura, and center Davis, the Lakers starting lineup boasts players who can easily make Jamal Murray work on defense and hopefully get him into foul difficulty.

The Lakers need to control Jamal Murray offensively with elite one-on-one defense and not allow him to average 30.0 ppg and defensively by attacking him and running offense through Russell, Reaves, or whomever he guards.

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Can L.A. Outshoot Denver?

The Lakers’ surprise wild card in their upcoming first round matchup with the world champion Nuggets will be their sudden dramatic improvement in 3-point shooting proficiency led by LeBron James and D’Angelo Russell.

Since LeBron James joined the Lakers, the team’s winning formula has been to dominate points-in-the-paint and free-throws-made by +10 points per game to offset their -10 points per game 3-point shooting differential.
But since February 1, the Lakers have continued to win PIP and FTM by 10 points per game but are now close to breaking even when it comes to the threes they made versus the threes made by opponents in any game.

Since February 1, the Lakers’ 39.3% 3-point percentage was the best in the Western Conference and second best in the entire NBA behind the Celtics 39.9%. The Nuggets meanwhile shot 38.1% from deep, which was 7th.
The Nuggets are going to see a much more dangerous 3-point shooting Lakers team in the first round of the playoffs than the one they easily outshot from deep by 40.3% to 34.9% during last year’s conference finals.

In last year’s conference finals, the Nuggets won the 3-point shooting battle over the Lakers by 15.8 points per game. Note that this was in a four-game playoff series where they won each game by an average of just 6.0 points.
Imagine how different the upcoming first round battle is going to be if the Lakers actually outscore the Nuggets from deep. The Lakers newfound 3-point shooting prowess has totally changed their formula for winning.

By changing their winning formula, the Lakers have a unique opportunity to pull off a blockbuster upset that not only eliminates their primary West competitor but also leaves the door to the 2024 NBA Finals wide open.
The Lakers new 3-point shooting prowess has completed a transformation of their offense into a juggernaut where they can win games by raining threes as well as dominating points-in-the-paint and free-throws-made.

The Lakers changing their formula for how to win games so they no longer lose the 3-point shooting battles is their surprise wild card that will erase the Nuggets traditional edge and help the L.A. upset Denver in 6 games.

While they’ve sputtered most of the year and will likely have to win a play-in game to make the postseason, the Los Angeles Lakers have suddenly become the scary, dangerous team nobody wants to meet in the playoffs.

What’s suddenly made the Lakers so dangerous is not just that they’re winning, it’s how and to whom they’re doing it. After a midseason offensive transformation, the Lakers are now healthy and peaking at the right time.
While they’re still playing bully ball and dominating points-in-the-paint and free-throws-made, the Lakers have suddenly transformed their poor 3-point shooting from their worst team weakness into a new found strength.

L.A.’s 3-point shooting transformation has totally changed their blueprint or formula for how to win games. Since February 1st, L.A.’s 39.6% on threes is second best in the entire NBA and their 20–8 win-loss record third best. Over the last three months, the Lakers have increased the number of threes they make per game while reducing the number of threes opponents make per game so their 3-point differential per game is now very close to zero.

Slowly but surely, the Lakers have completely transformed their 3-point shooting from their greatest weakness to a new found strength. The first three months, the Lakers lost 3-point differential by -9.6 points (10.9–14.1).
After losing the January 3–point war by -9.9 points (11.8–15.1), the Lakers improved, only losing February by -3.3 points (12.3–13.4), March by -1.2 points (13.3–13.7), and finally breaking even over last 9-games (13.0–13.0).

In the process, the Lakers have also shown that they can hold their own against the top teams in the league, posting big wins over top-10 teams like the Celtics, Timberwolves, Thunder, Bucks, Clippers, Suns, and 76ers.
While they need to prove they can beat teams like the Nuggets and Jazz, whose low-gravity centers Jokic and Sabonis are tough matchups for AD, the Lakers have become the team nobody wants to meet in the playoffs.

Let’s take a closer look at how the Lakers new found 3-point shooting prowess has changed their formula for winning games and made them a far scarier and far more dangerous team to meet in the NBA playoffs.

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Lakers Confident of Playoff Chances Regardless of Seeding

Right now, the Los Angeles Lakers are 9th in the West with a 44–33 record, just 1.0 game behind the 8th place Sacramento Kings and only 1.5 games behind the 7th place New Orleans Pelicans and 6th place Phoenix Suns.

Moving up the Western Conference competitive standings has been extremely difficult. Despite winning 22 of their last 33 games, the Lakers have been stuck in 9th or 10th place in the West for the last 74 days.
L.A. has been locked in 9th or 10th place in the West since January 21st when their win-loss record was 22–22. Now they find themselves with just 5 games left in the season to move up to the 6th, 7th, or 8th seed in West.

At this point, the Lakers’ are understandably strategically not worrying about their final seeding and instead are just focused on winning every single game they play, confident they can survive the play-in tourney.
With James and Davis healthy and playing like top-10 superstars, a starting lineup that’s an offensive juggernaut, and dramatically improved 3-point shooting, the Lakers have become every NBA team’s worst nightmare.

The Lakers’ 5 remaining games will include home games against the Cavs, Warriors, and Timberwolves and road games against the Grizzlies and Pelicans. The Lakers’ goal is to win all 5 games to finish year with 49 wins.
The Kings lead the Lakers by 2 losses and have 3 road games against the Knicks, Celtics, and Nets and 3 home games against the Pelicans, Suns, and Trail Blazers. The Kings won season series and own tiebreaker over Lakers.

The Pelicans have 5 games remaining in the season. They’re at home for the Spurs game next and the Lakers on last day of the season. In between, they have 3 road games against the Trail Blazers, Kings, and Warriors.
Finally, the Phoenix Suns have 6 games remaining in the regular season, including home games against the Timberwolves, Pelicans, and Clippers followed by road games against the Clippers, Kings, and Timberwolves.

The Los Angeles Lakers are confident they can survive the play-in tourney and make the NBA playoffs as the 7th or 8th seed, win first round matchup against the Timberwolves, Nuggets, or Thunder, and move on from there.

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Lakers Suddenly Getting Healthy And Peaking At Right Time

Over last 9 games, the Lakers led the entire league in multiple categories, including their 8–1 record, 123.3 points per game, 22.3 free throw makes per game, 40.8 defensive rebounds per game, and 49.9 rebounds per game.

While winning 8 of 9 games, the Lakers had the NBA’s 10th best offensive rating, 5th best defensive rating, and 6th best net rating. Most importantly, they avoided a negative 3-point shooting differential during those 9 games.
Instead, they made same number of threes as they allowed opponents to make during 9-game stretch for a 0.0 3-point shooting differential while still winning PIP by 8.9 points, FTM by 3.6 points, for total of 12.5 points.

Over that recent 9-game stretch, the Los Angeles Lakers’ starting lineup shot lights out, averaging a red hot 105.4 ppg, led by Davis’ 27.4 ppg, James 24.8 ppg, Russell’s 20.0 ppg, Hachimura’s 17.2 ppg, and Reaves 16.0 ppg.
Most importantly, the Lakers continued to shoot the ball well from every level, shooting a league third-best 49.7% from the field, a league 10th-best 38.0% from deep, and a league 5th-best 82.4% from the free throw line.

Ideally, the Lakers will win their five remaining games and at least jump from 9th place in the West to 7th or 8th place or with a little bit of good luck all the way up to 6th place in the West to avoid the play-in tournament.
Regardless, the Lakers are not worried about their seeding and are fully confident they can handle whatever challenge is put in front of them. They just need to keep on focusing on winning every single game they play.

The beauty of their new winning formula is the Lakers no longer need to have a 10 point advantage in points-in-the-paint and free-throws-made to offset a negative 10-point disadvantage from 3-point shooting differential.
Being able to transform their 3-point shooting from a big disadvantage to a positive advantage has completely transformed the Lakers’ chances to win their 18th NBA championship from a pipe dream to a possible miracle.

The Los Angeles Lakers will start the NBA playoffs as one of the hottest and healthiest teams in the NBA and a team that none of the other teams in the West want to meet in the first two rounds or the East in the NBA Finals.

The smartest thing the Lakers could do this summer is copy what the Celtics did last summer and use their draft picks to trade for an elite point-of-attack guard and two-way modern center rather than a third superstar.

Last summer, the Boston Celtics faced a situation very similar to what the Los Angeles Lakers will face this summer: how to build a championship starting lineup and rotation around two superstar players in their prime.
Much like this season’s Lakers, last season’s Celtics were a team with two legitimate superstars and a collection of highly respected role players that had struggled to live up to its potential and needed a major upgrade.

Unlike the Lakers, who reportedly want to trade for a third superstar with their eyes on the Hawks’ Trae Young, the Cavs’ Donovan Mitchell, or the Mavs’ Kyrie Irving, the Celtics smartly went in the opposite direction.
They used first round picks and tradable contracts to land the elite point-of-attack defender they needed in Jrue Holiday and two-way modern center they needed to stretch the floor and protect the rim in Kristaps Porzingis.

The result was a Boston Celtics team that has the best record in the league by far and the #1 offensive rating, #2 defensive rating, and #1 net rating. Worst of all, Boston is now the favorite to win its 18th NBA championship.
Talk about a harsh reality that should jolt the Lakers’ ownership and front office and make them realize the last thing they need is a third superstar. The Celtics showed the Lakers exactly what they should do this summer.

Let’s take a closer look at how the Lakers this summer could copy what the Celtics did last summer and use their draft capital and tradable contracts to land an elite point-of-attack defender and two-way modern stretch center.

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Celtics’ Holiday & Porzingis Trades

Like this season’s Lakers, last season’s Celtics needed two things to become legitimate championship contenders: better point-of-attack defense and a modern two-way center who can both stretch the floor and protect the rim.

Boston’s mega trades last summer for Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday transformed the Celtics from a second-tier competitor to the best team in the NBA and the odds-on favorite to win their 18th NBA championship.
The Lakers’ Rob Pelinka needs to take a close look at what the Celtics’ Brad Stevens accomplished with his two blockbuster trades to transform Boston into a championship contender because it’s also the right solution for L.A.

Stevens’ first move at the end of last season was to trade Marcus Smart, plus salary filler in Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala, and an early second round pick for Kristaps Porzingis and a pair of late first round picks.
Before the start of the season, Brad pulled off a second mega trade for point-of-attack guard Jrue Holiday to replace Marcus Smart, giving up Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, and two late first round draft picks.

Those savvy moves resulted in the Celtics swapping Smart, Gallinari, Muscala, Brogdon, and Williams for Porzingis, Holiday, and an early second round pick. Porzingis’ trade gave them picks to use for Holiday.
That’s a consolidation effort that dramatically upgraded the Celtics from a tier-2 competitor to the championship favorite and set Brad Stevens up to win the league’s Executive of the Year award should Boston win #18.

The needs of this season’s Lakers and last season’s Celtics are so similar that the Rob Pelinka would be derelict if he did not consider replicating the trades Brad Stevens made rather than chasing after a third superstar.

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Who Could Be Lakers’ Holiday?

The Lakers’ top prospects to fill their need for a starting defensive guard who can elevate the team’s point-of-attack defense like Jrue Holiday has done for the Celtics are the Bull’s Alex Caruso and Grizzlies’ Marcus Smart.

Bringing back Alex Caruso to be the team’s starting shooting guard and point-of-attack perimeter defender playing alongside starting point guard D’Angelo Russell would be the perfect solution for the Los Angeles Lakers.
As an NBA All-Defensive First Team selection last season, Alex would be the perfect backcourt mate to play with D’Angelo Russell. Pelinka should try to swap Gabe Vincent and a protected first round draft pick for Alex Caruso.

Caruso could start at shooting guard alongside Russell, allowing Reaves to move to the bench as the team’s 6th man and backcourt mate for Spencer Dinwiddie, whom the Lakers should clearly try to re-sign for next season.
Russell and Caruso starting backed up by Dinwiddie and Reaves off the bench would upgrade and strengthen the Lakers’ backcourt and rotation going forward, giving them desperately needed backcourt stability.

The Lakers’ other candidate to be starting shooting guard and point-of-attack defender would be the Grizzlies’ Marcus Smart, who was the heart and soul of the Boston Celtics’ defense before being traded to Memphis.
Like Caruso, Smart would give the Lakers’ starting lineup a defense-first option while enabling Reaves to move to the bench with Dinwiddie. If Pelinka cannot land Caruso, Smart would be an equally strong candidate.

The los Angeles Lakers should trade for either the Bull’s Alex Caruso or the Grizzlies’ Marcus Smart this summer to replace Austin Reaves as starting shooting guard and be their primary point-of-attack perimeter defender.

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Who Could Be Lakers’ Porzingis?

The Lakers’ top prospects for a modern two-way big who can stretch the floor and protect the rim like Kristaps Porzingis has done for the Celtics are Magic’s power forward Jonathan Isaac and Raptors’ center Kelly Olynyk.

Finding a modern two-way center who could start alongside Anthony Davis in a two-bigs lineup, stretch the court with his 3-point shooting, and help protect the rim should be the Lakers’ other major priority this summer.
The Lakers’ top candidates for a second big to play with AD are the Magics’ Jonathan Isaac and the Raptors’ Kelly Olynyk, both of whom could play alongside or back up Anthony Davis at center so he can play the four.

The oft-injured but uber-talented Isaac is currently backing up Paolo Banchero and averaging 6.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 0.7 steals in 15.0 minutes per game while shooting 52.9/36.8/72.9%.
Jonathan would be a perfect fit next to AD. He has one year and $17.4 million left on his Magic contract and Pelinka should be able to acquire him this summer for Rui Hachimura and a first round draft pick.

The other intriguing modern two-way center the Lakers should consider is the Raptors’ Kelly Olynyk, who will be a free agent whom the Lakers should be able to acquire this summer for Rui Hachimura and a first round pick.
Whereas Isaac is slightly better on D than O, Olynyk is slightly better on O than D. He’s currently averaging 9.1 points, 5.0 boards, 4.2 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.4 blocks in 21.5 minutes per game shooting 55.0/40.5/81.7%.

The Los Angeles Lakers should trade for Jonathan Isaac or Kelly Olynyk to be their second big who could play alongside Anthony Davis in a two-bigs starting lineup or back up AD at center when he rests on the bench.

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How Would Lakers & Celtics Matchup?

Head-to-head, a new Los Angeles Lakers’ starting lineup of Russell, Caruso, James, Davis, and Isaac matches up well against the Boston Celtics’ current juggernaut starting lineup of Holiday, White, Brown, Tatum, and Porzingis.

Both starting lineups boast pairs of legitimate top-10 superstars who can dominate any given game surrounded by three championship-quality starters who can shoot, pass, rebound, and defend at a premier level.
Both starting lineups also feature five players who can shoot the three, lockdown point-of-attack defensive guards who can stop penetration, and modern two-way centers who can space the floor and protect the rim.

Putting together a championship caliber starting lineup can be extremely expensive, especially if it causes teams to go over the luxury tax thresholds. Right now, the Boston Celtics are projected to have $183.6 million payroll.
The Celtics starters alone make $155.7 million per year, with four of the five starters earning over $30 million per annum. That payroll will cost the Celtics $39.5 million in luxury taxes for a grand total of $223.1 million.

Should the Lakers pull off mega trades for Alex Caruso and Jonathan Isaac, they will find themselves in a far better salary cap and luxury tax situation than the Celtics did after trading for Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis.
While Holiday and Porzingis earn $36.9 and $36.0 million per year, Caruso and Isaac only earn $9.5 and $17.4 million per year. That would let Lakers maintain a starting lineup payroll of $132.4 million, total payroll of $168.1 million, luxury tax of $7.0 million, for grand total of just $175.1 million.

Copying what last season’s Celtics did to build a championship starting lineup but targeting a less expensive lockdown perimeter defender and modern two-way center should be the Lakers game plan this summer.

The Lakers can fix their broken point-of-attack defense without hurting their top-5 offense by going big and positionless and starting 6′ 10″ Jarred Vanderbilt at shooting guard and moving Austin Reaves to 6th man.

Right how, the #9 Lakers are essentially locked in a battle with the #10 Golden State Warriors for the second Play-In game. The Lakers are 3 games behind the #8 Phoenix Suns and 3 games ahead of #11 Houston Rockets.
With 13 games to go, the Lakers would prefer to only have to win one game to make the playoffs rather than two but their focus right now is more on getting fully healthy, fixing their defense, and playing well than moving up.

The Lakers’ acceptance that they’d need to win two Play-In games to make the playoffs could quickly change if the Mavs, Suns, and/or Kings stumble. But the Lakers are confident. They just need to be playing their best to win.
For now, the Lakers don’t care who they have to play or whom they have to go through. They’re confident, if they’re finally healthy and playing their best basketball, they have a chance to win another NBA championship.

While the Lakers will need to be more consistent to have even a puncher’s chance at winning their 18th NBA championship, there’s no doubt they’re the team nobody wants to meet in the Play-In Tournament or Playoffs.
Not with LeBron James and Anthony Davis healthy and thriving, the Lakers suddenly transformed into a top-10 3-point shooting team, and their elite roster depth and talent finally getting healthy and close to returning.

So, assuming Vando is healthy for the playoffs, let’s take a look at what going big and positionless and swapping him for Austin Reaves does for the Lakers’ starting lineup and rotation and why it’s their best possible move.

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Why Not Vanderbilt for Hachimura

The problem with starting Jarred Vanderbilt for Rui Hachimura is it still leaves the Lakers with two starting guards in D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves who are poor defenders and does not add needed size to roster.

The fact that Vando will most likely defend the other team’s top scorer, most likely a guard or wing, further exacerbates the Lakers’ team defense as it logically forces Russell or Reaves to have to defend a bigger forward.
Since Vando will usually defend guards or wings, it makes sense for him to replace one of the Lakers two offense-first guards. With Russell taking over as the team’s third best player, it’s time for Reaves to come off the bench.

Reaves has already had fewer shots and touches as a starter because of the focus on Russell and moving him to the bench to become the team’s sixth man would take better advantage of his scoring and playmaking skills.
While Vando is not the offensive player Reaves is, his point-of-attack defense and his size, physicality, and rebounding should dramatically help the Lakers’ starting lineup be more balanced and better able to match up.

Finally, some players should start and some shouldn’t. Frankly, Reaves is a far better choice to move to the bench than Hachimura because he could end up playing better whereas Rui clearly seem to play better as a starter.
There’s also the issue of team size. The Lakers need to stay big as possible against teams like Denver and Boston, where they need a starting lineup of 6′ 5″ Russell, 6″ 10″ Vanderbilt, 6′ 8″ Hachimura, 6′ 8″ James, and 6′ 10″ Davis.

The Lakers’ optimum solution to upgrade their perimeter defense, size and physicality, and control of the boards is to move Austin Reaves to the bench to be sixth man and start Jarred Vanderbilt at two guard for the playoffs.

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Vanderbilt Playing Shooting Guard

In today’s positionless NBA, players can play any position they can defend. Because he will defend guards and wings most of the time, the Lakers should start Vanderbilt at shooting guard and convert Reaves to sixth man.

Lakers replacing Reaves with Vanderbilt not only swaps an offense-first player for defense-first player but also exchanges a 6′ 5″ player for a 6′ 10″ player, which enables the Lakers to better matchup against bigger teams.
Adding an elite point-of-attack defender and bigger, longer, more physical rebounder in Jarred Vanderbilt dramatically adds needed defense and size and returns offense-defense balance to the Lakers’ starting lineup.

Before getting injured back in early February, Vando was playing the best basketball of his career. Despite troubling rumors, he’s expected to be fully healthy and ready to return to the court before the end of regular season. Hopefully, Jarred will get a chance to play in a few games before the end of the season so he can get back into playing condition and be ready to have a major impact as the Lakers’ top point-of-attack perimeter defender.

Starting at shooting guard, Jarred Vanderbilt should have a clear cut edge in size, length, and athleticism over whomever he matches up against playing shooting guard. Those advantages should help him excel at the position.
While shooting is not his strength, Vando’s size and athleticism should give him a big offensive advantage over the smaller, less physical players he may find himself matched up against. Vando’s offense becomes a plus.

Finally, the Lakers starting lineup for the playoffs of Russell, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, James, and Davis should finally give them enough size and physicality to match up against the world champion Denver Nuggets.

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Bench Scoring & Playmaking

Right now, the Los Angeles Lakers’ have one of the worst benches in the league. Their 29.8 bench points per game ranks 29 out of 30 and their 6.8 bench assists per game 26 out of 30 in the league for the current season.

By moving Austin Reaves from starting shooting guard to backup shooting guard and hopefully getting back injured players like Cam Reddish and Christian Wood, L.A. should see much better scoring and playmaking. Austin Reaves’ presence alone should add 10 points and 5 assists to the Lakers’ bench points and assists, which would elevate the Lakers from being bottom-5 in bench points and assists to top-10 in that category.

Getting Christian Wood back from arthroscopic surgery on his knee in time for the playoffs will be critical to the Lakers being able to continue to roll out big lineups off the bench. Lakers need both Wood and Hayes to excel.
Spencer Dinwiddie will get the rest of the bench backcourt minutes next to Austin Reaves. The Reaves/Dinwiddie bench backcourt has similar balance between offense and defense as the Russell/Vanderbilt starting backcourt.

While the last thing Ham should do is play hockey style lineups, I do like the complementary fit and offensive and defensive balance in the proposed Los Angeles Lakers’ starting lineup and primary backups at each position.
The analytics have been screaming all year for the Lakers to go big and starting 6′ 10″ defensive specialist Jarred Vanderbilt at shooting guard could give the Lakers strong positional size advantage in all of their lineups.

Moving Austin Reaves to the bench and getting Christian Wood back from injury could transform the Lakers’ reserves from being a bottom-5 lineup to a top-10 lineup by generating more bench points, assists, and rebounds.