Lakerholics

The Lakers have a path to move Russell Westbrook but it’s going to cost them a first round pick and will have to be made before the OKC Thunder’s open cap space disappears when this NBA season ends tomorrow June 30th.

While trading Russ into OKC’s open cap space won’t yield a pair of proven rotation players earning $20 million per year, it would give the Lakers three borderline rotation players who would be upgrades over current players. Additionally, it would give the Lakers a $32.4 million traded player exception (TPE) to use to acquire players without sending out salary and the ability to hard cap themselves to use the full $10.4M MLE and $4.1M BAE.

Let’s look at the advantages trading Westbrook to OKC gives the Lakers and why that could be their best path to rebuilding their roster and hopefully returning to being a legitimate contender with a chance at a championship.

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Trading Russell Westbrook Into OKC’s Cap Space

Solving the Lakers Westbrook conundrum starts with trading Russ’ $47.1 million expiring contract into the Oklahoma City Thunder’s open cap space, which will disappear on July 1, 2022 when SGA’s new extension starts.

Other than the Pistons and Knicks who have cleared cap space specifically for free agents, the Thunder is the only team with the cap space to absorb $32.4 million of the $47.1 million left in Westbrook’s expiring contract. Oklahoma City will want a first round pick from the Lakers as the price for using their cap space but should be willing to include elite defensive guard Luguentz Dort and 3&D wing Kenrich Williams as quality rotation players.

While the Lakers have positioned themselves as unwilling to include a pick to move Westbrook, there’s no way they want Russ to be part of the roster next season. Dumping him into OKC’s cap space opens other doors.

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The Power of a $32.4 Million Traded Player Exception

Traded Player Exceptions allow teams to trade for players without having to send out salary. By sending out $47.1 million and receiving back only $13.4 million, the Lakers would create a $32.4 million traded player exception.

The Lakers could use the $32.4 million traded player exception from trading Westbrook into the OKC Thunder’s cap space for one or multiple players whom other teams are looking to move to save cap space and cut expenses. The Lakers could use their TPE to trade for the Hornets’ Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier, or Kelly Oubre, the Pacers’ Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner, or Buddy Hield, or the Knicks’ Evan Fournier or Cam Reddish

The Lakers’ $32.4 million Traded Player Exception would be good for a year and could be used to bring back a single elite player or multiple legitimate rotation players. It would be a valuable tool as teams look to create space.

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The Benefits of the Lakers Hard Capping Themselves

Trading Russell Westbrook and their 2029 first round draft pick for Derrick Favors, Luguentz Dort, Kenrich Williams, and a $32.4 million traded player exception also enables the Lakers to take advantage of being hard capped.

Being hard capped has three distinct advantages over teams that are not hard capped. Hard capped teams get the full $10.3 million MLE vs. the $6.4 million TMLE, the $4.1 million BAE, and right to receive S&T players. Teams that are not hard capped are limited to the $6.4 million TMLE. Being hard capped opens up the entire free agent market as teams can receive players in sign-and-trade deals, a huge advantage for hard capped teams.

Being hard capped allows the Lakers to sign an elite perimeter defender like Warriors’ guard Gary Payton II to the $10.3 million MLE and a young stretch center like Clippers’ Isaiah Hartenstein to the $4.1 million BAE.

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Can Lakers Transform Themselves Into Contenders?

The Los Angeles Lakers will continue to be legitimate contenders to win an NBA championship as long as they have a healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Nothing that happened last year has changed that.

For purposes of seeing what kind of team the Lakers could build by trading Westbrook into the Thunder’s cap space and hardcapping themselves, I’ve assumed the Lakers used their traded player exception on Hayward. I’ve also assumed the Lakers used their $10.3 million full MLE on Isaiah Hartenstein and their $4.1 million BAE on Gary Payton II and exercised their team options for Austin Reaves, Stanley Johnson, and Wenyen Gabriel.

Finally, I’ve assumed the Lakers traded Talen Horton-Tucker, Kendrick Nunn, and their 2027 first round draft pick to the Houston Rockets for Eric Gordon to provide elite 3-point shooting along with solid perimeter defense.

When considering bringing back Westbrook, the Lakers would be wise to remember the astute words of Albert Einstein: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.”

While nobody knows what they are planning to do this offseason, the Los Angeles Lakers have been publicly and privately adamant that they prefer to bring Westbrook back rather than spending any draft picks to move him. This is despite having hired a rookie head coach in Darvin Him and Russ’ salary making it impossible for the Lakers to find players with the requisite size, shooting, and defense to complement their three superstars.

When you understand how daunting a challenge it would be, you can’t help coming to the conclusion it would be pure lunacy for the Lakers to even consider bringing back Russell Westbrook under any circumstances.

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1. Russell Westbrook Is Not Going to Become a Pit Bull on Defense

The Lakers’ head coach Darvin Ham has made it clear that defense will be his priority with the Lakers and he expects to challenge Russell Westbrook to become an aggressive pit bull leading the team’s defense next season.

Anybody who has watched Russell Westbrook on defense the last few years of his career can immediately see the disconnect between what Darvin Ham wants out of Russell Westbrook and what he’s likely to get based on history. Ham must be thinking he’s getting the OKC Thunder version of Westbrook as a point guard if he thinks Russell can become the tip of spear for the Lakers’ defensively like Jrue Holiday was as the point guard for the Bucks.

The Lakers better be successful in moving Russ this summer because they’re making a crazy mistake opening the season thinking Westbrook will become an elite defender. Russell Westbrook is not Jrue Holiday.

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2. Keeping Russell Westbrook Prevents Lakers Building Deep Roster

If the Lakers do not trade Russell Westbrook and his $47 million expiring contract, their only path to trading for a legitimate rotation player would be by packaging Talen Horton-Tucker, Kendrick Nunn, and their two picks.

That should be enough to net the Lakers a budding young player like 23-year old guard Gary Trent Jr. or 24-year old small forward OG Anunoby but then their small portfolio of trading chips would be completely exhausted. The Lakers could also sign a second rotation player with their $6.4 million taxpayer MLE but would then like last season be forced to build out the rest of their roster with unproven or veteran minimum salary players.

Keeping Westbrook will result in the Lakers adding just two legitimate rotation players (1 via trade and 1 via free agency) compared to the 5 they could add (3 via trade and 2 via free agency) if they instead traded Russ.

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3. Keeping Russell Westbrook Limits Lakers Access to Free Agents

The Lakers’ rebuilding this summer has focused on trades since they’re over the cap and will only have the $6.4 million taxpayer MLE available to use on free agents. But that could change if the Lakers trade Russ.

Were the Lakers able to trade Westbrook, THT, and Nunn while taking back $10 million less in annual salary, they could get under the $155 million hard cap, which would give them greater access to this year’s free agent class. They could then use the full $10.3 million MLE and the $4.1 million BAE and be able to receive free agents via sign-and-trade transactions. They would have an additional $8.0 million to spend on free agents if hard capped.

Trading Russell Westbrook gives the Lakers access to young free agents like Isaiah Hartenstein, Tyus Jones, Gary Payton II, and Otto Porter, Jr. whom they might not be able to sign without trading Russ and hard capping.

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4. Keeping Westbrook Could Cause LeBron James to Reject Extension

One rumor that’s made the rounds is LeBron does not want the Lakers to bring Westbrook back. The word is he knows signing Russ was a mistake but is not willing to sign an extension if Pelinka doesn’t fix problem.

Fixing the problem means one of two options: the Lakers either include a pick to move Russ or waive-and-stretch him to they can get under the hard cap and supplement what they get for Russ in a trade with free agents. Push come to shove, there’s no way the Lakers can finish this offseason with Russell Westbrook still on the roster. No matter how you spin it, that would signal a complete failure of the Lakers front office to build a winning roster.

The Lakers greatest fear has to be bringing back Russell Westbrook raises the risk that LeBron James to leave the Lakers as an unrestricted free agent next summer to a dangerous level that the Lakers should avoid at all costs.

In what could be the opportunity the Los Angeles Lakers have been hoping for, Myles Turner appears likely to play out the last year of his contract rather than sign an extension which should move the Pacers to trade him.

The Lakers have long had a strong interest in Myles Turner and news that he will not sign an extension to stay with the Indiana Pacers should immediately rekindle the team’s interest in the 26-year old stretch center. Turner is exactly the player the Lakers need so that new head coach Darvin Ham can replicate the four-out, one-in offense his prior team, the Bucks, utilized with superstars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton.

With Turner leaving, the odds Indiana decides to trade him to avoid losing him for nothing but the Lakers will need to be extremely aggressive if they hope to win any bidding war with the Hornets and teams coveting him. While it may not be enough, the Lakers should go all-in on a mega deal with the Pacers to trade Westbrook, Horton-Tucker, Nunn, and their 2027 and 2029 unprotected first round draft picks for Turner, Brogdon, and Hield.

While teams rarely remove protection from first round picks, this is one of those opportunities where the Lakers need to turn their 2027 and 2029 first round picks into something extremely special, valuable, and tradeable.

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Why the Lakers Make the Trade?

The Lakers are facing a ticking clock as LeBron James’ and Anthony Davis’ championship window appears to be closing as James approaches 38-years old and Davis struggles to remain healthy and effective outside the bubble.

This trade is as perfect as a trade could be for the Lakers as it allows them to swap Russell Westbrook and filler for three legitimate starters with needed size, shooting, and defense to complement James and Davis. With Darvin Ham taking over as the head coach, the Lakers are expected to install the four-out, one-in offense used by his former team, the Milwaukee Bucks, to create spacing for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton.

The key to the Bucks four-out offense working is having a stretch five center like Brook Lopez to be one of the four players stationed beyond the 3-point line. Other than in the bubble, Anthony Davis is not a proven stretch five. With Davis injured much of last season, the Lakers found themselves being destroyed by huge negative differentials in rebounding and points in the paint due to lineups that were undersized at almost every single position.

The problem is the Lakers lose their positional size advantage when they play LeBron and AD at the four and five. They need a center like Turner to allow James and Davis to dominate smaller players at the three and four. Starting a lineup of 6′ 5″ Malcolm Brogdon, 6′ 4″ Buddy Hield, 6′ 9″ LeBron James, 6′ 10″ Anthony Davis, and 6′ 11″ Myles Turner would give the Lakers the positional size advantage at all five of the positions on the floor.

Removing protection from two first round picks five and seven years from now when LeBron will be gone and Anthony Davis nearing the end of his career is a huge gamble by the Lakers but their only chance to land Turner.

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Why the Pacers Make the Trade?

The Pacers need to decide what they’re doing. Are they going to try to completely rebuild from scratch or try to rebuild around Tyrese Haliburton and Isaiah Jackson and remain a playoff team in the Eastern Conference?

With Turner declining to sign an extension, it seems certain the Pacers are going to be looking to trade Turner as well as Brogdon and Hield, who are already on Indiana’s trading block. Pacers will surely not be short of suitors. The Charlotte Hornets, Brooklyn Nets, and other NBA teams will have significant interest in Turner, who finished among the top two shot blockers in the entire league the past three years and is still only 26-years old.

With the Pacers undergoing a partial rebuild around Haliburton and Jackson, getting two unprotected Lakers first round picks could be attractive to an established and secure general manager like Kevin Pritchard. While the picks are five and seven years away, they’re unprotected for a team that could struggle badly once LeBron retires and Davis ages could make them extremely valuable and tradeable.

Indiana has long been the preferred trading partner for the Lakers, partly because of the players they have who are available in trade and partly because they are a franchise with a very stable front office situation. Unlike many genera managers, Pritchard will likely still be running the Indiana Pacers front office when the Lakers 2027 and 2029 first round picks will be used, although they will likely be traded multiple times.

Indiana not only gets two Lakers’ post LeBron unprotected first round picks that could be extremely valuable but also gets a future young star in Horton-Tucker and saves $65 million on Brogdon’s and Hield’s contracts.

The Los Angeles Lakers may have struck surprise gold in hiring Milwaukee Bucks’ assistant coach Darvin Ham to be their next head coach, a move that’s received universal praise and raised expectations about his impact.

With a veteran team coming off a horribly disappointing season, most NBA pundits expected the Lakers to hire an experienced NBA head coach or to delay their search until one like Quin Snyder or Doc Rivers became available. The Lakers instead smartly opted to hire the candidate with the greatest charisma and upside despite never having been a head coach before and mainly spending his time as an assistant coach in player development.

There’s strong evidence that indicates that Darvin Ham is going to become a major part of the executive brain trust making decisions for the Lakers, which is great news for an organization that needs dynamic leadership. Ham has the kind of intelligence that gains immediate respect, the type of personality that builds trust and confidence, and the elite communication skills to inspire Lakers’ stakeholders at every level from player to owner.

Unlike their previous coaching search that ended up hiring Frank Vogel, the Lakers avoided the public gaffes that resulted in hiring their third choice as head coach and having their entire hiring process rudely second guessed. Darvin Ham will start his tenure as Lakers’ coach with a longer contract and more power, independence, and influence than previous coach Frank Vogel had even after winning the NBA championship in the bubble in 2020.

So let’s look at how Darvin Ham could dramatically change the direction the Lakers take, including the possibility of his coaching Westbrook, whether Anthony Davis will play center, and whom the Lakers pursue this summer.

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How Will Darvin Ham Affect the Lakers Russell Westbrook Decision?

The latest rumor making the rounds is that Darvin Ham’s answer to the question of what he would do to make Russell Westbrook work with LeBron James and Anthony Davis won him the job as the Lakers next head coach.

The Lakers have supposedly told potential trade partners they’d rather bring Russell Westbrook back next season than give up a first round draft pick to trade him, though they’re willing to take back long-term contracts. This doesn’t mean the Lakers are suddenly going to hold onto those picks and eventually use them. It just means they would prefer to use those picks to acquire valuable young players rather than just to dump Westbrook.

While it’s not a slam dunk that the Lakers will be able to find a trade partner for Russell Westbrook without giving up a draft pick, there will probably be teams willing to take on Russ’ expiring contract to dump salary. Ultimately, the last thing the Lakers should want to do at this point is ask first year head coach Darvin Ham to deal with trying to rehabilitate Russell Westbrook while learning to be an NBA head coach for the very first time.

That’s why all of the talk about bringing back Russ is posturing. Considering the concerns about LeBron’s age and AD’s ability to stay healthy, next season could be the Lakers best opportunity this decade to win #18. Ironically, I would not be surprised to find out Darvin also advised the Lakers that keeping Westbrook would make it difficult to surround James and Davis with the kind of shooting and defense needed to be a champion.

While the Lakers continue to push the idea that they’re going to keep Russ, in the end there’s just no way they’re going to ask rookie head coach Darvin Ham to take on a no-win situation like making Russ work LeBron and AD.

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How Will Darvin Ham Affect the Offense the Lakers Run Next Season?

What will the Lakers’ offense look like under new head coach Darvin Ham? Look for an heavy emphasis on spacing, ball movement, and five-out sets designed to create driving lanes for James and Davis to attack the basket.

Darvin Ham was hired by the Lakers in part because of his success with the Bucks in creating the great spacing that was essential to unleashing Giannis Antetokounmpo and helping Milwaukee win the 2021 NBA Championship. The challenges facing the Bucks and Lakers are similar. The Lakers hope Darvin can build an offense to unleash LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the same way the Bucks’ offense unleashed Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The big question facing Darvin is whether to start games playing small with AD at the five or have the Lakers acquire a dynamic young stretch center like Isaiah Hartenstein so they can pay five-out with two bigs like the Bucks. Expect Ham to want to start games with two bigs but close them with small-ball-on-steroid lineups with AD at the five. That’s the perfect formula for the regular season with both big and small options available for the playoffs.

Considering injury concerns for James and Davis and how the undersized Lakers struggled in the paint and on the boards last season, moving James and Davis down a position against smaller players should benefit them. Finally, the versatility to play two-bigs with a center like Isaiah Hartenstein plus James and Davis or small-ball-on-steroids with a lethal 3-point shooting wing like Jerami Grant plus James and Davis could be a difference maker.

Expect Ham, as the Lakers new head coach, to push the team to build a roster with championship versatility to play two bigs like the 2021 Bucks and small-ball-on-steroids with AD at the five like the 2020 Lakers.

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How Will Darvin Ham Affect the Defense the Lakers Run Next Season?

What can the Lakers expect their defense to look like under Darvin Ham? While they may be done with Frank Vogel, they may not be done with the pick-and-roll drop coverage that was the heart of his defensive philosophy.

The Lakers under Darvin Ham will likely play pick-and-roll drop coverage on defense like the Bucks with Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Lakers during the regular season when they won the title in 2020. While drop coverage was a successful for the Bucks and the Lakers during the regular season, both teams ended up playing small-ball-on-steroids lineups in the playoffs to take advantage of Antetokounmpo and Davis.

Schematically, when the Lakers go two bigs, they’ll play pick-and-roll drop coverage. But when they go small with Davis at the five, they’d be better off switching everything and counting on their positional size and physicality. The versatility to eat up minutes playing pick-and-roll drop coverage with two bigs to start games but closing with a small-ball-on-steroids lineup playing switch everything could be the Lakers’ perfect defensive formula.

Building a roster that can play both big and small is challenging. Starting games with a center but closing them with a wing essentially requires the team to have six starters with the center and wing sharing the fifth slot. For Darvin Ham to be able to start games with two bigs, the Lakers will need to trade for or sign a dynamic young center like Isaiah Hartenstein. They will also need to trade or sign a legitimate defensive wing like Otto Porter, Jr.

Expect Darvin Ham to play a similar defensive style to that of Frank Vogel. The Lakers rely on two bigs lineups during the regular season and rely more on their small-ball-on-steroid lineups when they get into the playoffs.

As a lifelong die-hard Lakers fan who lives in the Bay area and lost a son and two granddaughters to the Warriors as fans, I have serious concerns about what the Dubs resurgence means to the future of the purple and gold.

Forgive me but, if there is anybody more entitled than Los Angeles Lakers fans, it’s Golden State Warriors fans. Now favored to win their seventh title, the Warriors could end up participating in six of the last eight NBA Finals. With their three superstars finally healthy and Wiggins and Pool elevating their ceiling, the Lakers may be forced to go through another Golden State dynasty to get out of the West and win their 18th NBA championship.

Fear of a suddenly healthy and championship-focused Golden State Warriors team potentially blocking the way out of the West for the Lakers should lead to changes in the roster Pelinka builds around LeBron and AD. Ironically, not only do the Lakers now have to learn how to play like the Dubs but they also have to figure out what kind of players they need to surround LeBron and AD with to ultimately defeat the Warriors.

The Lakers are at a critical crossroads and the direction they chose to go this summer could determine whether they win another championship with LeBron and how they handle looming transition to post-LeBron era. What Rob Pelinka does this summer will have a impact on the success or failure of the franchise over the rest of this decade. He has an opportunity to solidify his job as GM if he can build a Lakers team to beat the Warriors.

If the Lakers want to build a team to beat the Warriors, they’ll need to (1) hire a head coach who plays modern basketball, (2) build a roster that can play big or small, and (3) find players who can shoot and defend.

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1. Find a Head Coach Who Plays Modern Basketball

The Lakers move to hire Darvin Ham, who won a championship as a player with the Pistons in 2004 and as an assistant coach with Bucks in 2021 is a great first step in building a team that can play like and beat the Warriors.

During his four years as an assistant for Milwaukee, Darvin was part of a coaching staff that prioritized ball movement, spacing, and 3-point shooting on offense and pick-and-roll drop coverage and rim protection on defense. While Darvin will adjust his basketball philosophy to the roster Rob Pelinka gives him, it’s expected he will want to play an offense and defense similar to those favored by his mentor, Bucks’ coach Mike Budenholzer.

Hiring a coach from an team that plays new school five-out basketball on offense and old school rim protection anchored basketball on defense is an encouraging sign the Lakers plan to modernize how they play the game. Embracing constant ball and player movement and spacing on offense would be a great first step by the Lakers to play a style of offense similar to the Warriors instead of running isolation plays for their superstars.

I worry about Ham playing the same drop pick-and-roll coverage that Vogel favored when he had a shot blocking, rim protecting center and am interested to see the changes he will implement now that he’s the coach. Hoping he’ll be quicker to make adjustments than his mentor. Since Darvin is younger, I expect him to be more aggressive than Budenholzer was in making both roster and stylistic changes as the season progresses.

In Ham, the Lakers successfully nailed the first of the three goals they needed to achieve by finding a dynamic young head coach who believes in a modern style of basketball similar to that of the Golden State Warriors.

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2. Build a Physical Roster That Can Play Big and Small

If the Lakers want to get past the Warriors in the West, they need be able beat the Warriors by playing big or paying small, which means they need both a young physical center to go big as well as a big 3&D wing to go small.

Being able to dominate Golden State when they play big or small is the key to beating the Warriors going forward. You’re not going to outshoot a team with Curry, Thompson, and Poole but you can beat them with bully ball. When they play big, the Lakers need to be able to offensively overpower the Warriors on the boards and in the paint. When they go small, they need to defensively dominate the Warriors with their small-ball-on-steroids lineups.

In other words, the Lakers need the versatility to play two bigs with a young physical center like Isaiah Hartenstein paired with Anthony Davis or small-ball-on-steroids with a wing like Otto Porter, Jr. paired with LeBron and AD. Dominating positional size and physicality is the ticket to beating the Warriors. You’re not going to outshoot them but you can out-physical them with size and power at every position, especially in the front court.

That means the Lakers need to find a young physical center like Hartenstein as well as a bigger 3&D wing like Porter if they’re going to build a roster of players who can take it to Golden State with greater size and physicality. Fortunately, both could be signed in free agency if the Lakers were to accept a hard cap. They could then pay Hartenstein up to $10.3 million per year for up to four years and Porter $4.1 million per year for up to four years.

Using their Mid-Level and Bi-Annual Exceptions to sign a center like Hartenstein and a wing like Porter would give the Los Angeles Lakers a significant positional size advantage over the Golden State Warriors.

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3. Find Rotation Players Who Can Shoot and Defend

The biggest problem with the Lakers’ roster last season was there was no salary cap left to sign legitimate rotation players who could shoot and defend after trading for Russell Westbrook and his massive max contract.

That’s why one of the Lakers goals this offseason is to trade Westbrook and Horton-Tucker for two or three legitimate NBA rotation players who are better shooters and defenders than minimum salary players last season. While there’s no way a team is going to consistently outshoot the Warriors from three, there are major moves the Lakers can seek this offseason to build a roster that’s better equipped to defend and beat Golden State.

While it’s doubtful any team would be willing to trade for Russ the player, his $47 million expiring contract should be extremely appealing to multiple NBA teams looking to clean up cap sheets and dump long-term contracts. The top potential trade partner is the Indiana Pacers who are looking to dump point guard Malcolm Brogdon and shooting guard Buddy Hield, who would be outstanding fits as the Lakers new backcourt with LeBron and AD.

Malcolm Brogdon would be a huge upgrade over Westbrook in that he is an excellent playmaker who thrives both on and off the ball, shot 37.2% on 5.2 threes per game, and is an excellent point of attack defender with 6′ 5″ size. Buddy Hield was the player the Lakers were planning on trading for before they switched to Westbrook. He shot 36.2% on 8.5 threes per game last year but is a career 39.8% 3-point shooter who averages 7.6 threes per game.

Trading Westbrook and Horton-Tucker and their two first round draft picks for a volume 3-point shooting backcourt would be a critical step to building a roster that could beat the Golden State Warriors in the playoffs.