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LakerTom wrote a new post
A Win-Win-Win three-team NBA trade is what do you get when you mix two toxic superstars, two disappointed superteams, and a franchise hungry to replicate its successful tanking strategy and steal the next Tim Duncan.
We’ve heard all of the reasonable arguments about why this trade won’t happen, most of which ignore that the Lakers simply do not have any other potential trade partners for Russell Westbrook or the Nets for Kyrie Irving. The missing piece to the puzzle of how to make the trade work was the San Antonio Spurs, who’re now committed to tanking next season in pursuit of their next Tim Duncan in 7′ 3″ teenage French center Victor Wembanyama.
Let’s analyze what the actual trade is likely to look like, what each team is looking for from the trade, what each key player on the move is looking for, and why what each team and player ends up getting in this trade is a win.
What Is Trade Likely To Look Like?
It’s never easy to predict how a blockbuster NBA three-team trade will look like but the above example is one that has emerged as a logical alternative that gives all three teams involved what they theoretically want or need.
The trade accomplishes the primary goals of each of the three teams. The Lakers dump Russell Westbrook. The Nets dump Kyrie Irving. The Spurs get paid for taking Westbrook, who has already said he would buy himself out.
The trade saves the Lakers $5 million in salary this season, gives the Nets a $30.7 million traded player exception to bring in a player or players without sending out salary, and gives the tanking Spurs a pick for taking Russ.There are two additional players the Spurs are looking to dump in Doug McDermott and Zach Collins but both have 2 years left on their contract, which makes them both unlikely candidates for the Lakers or the Nets.
Why Trade Is A Huge Win for the Lakers
The Lakers essentially give up all of their trading chips: Russell Westbrook, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kendrick Nunn, their 2027 first round pick, and their 2029 first round pick. In return, they basically got everything they wanted.
They got rid of Russell Westbrook. They got a 1-year trial of Kyrie Irving and two legitimate rotation players who can shoot the three in Seth Curry and Josh Richardson. They also got out of the second year of THT’s contract. Subtract Westbrook (29.8% on 3.4 3PA pg), Horton-Tucker (26.9% on 3.0 3PA pg), and Nunn (0% on 0.0 3PA pg) and add Irving (41.8% on 8.2 3PA pg), Curry (46.8% on 6.5 3PA pg), and Richardson (41.5% on 3.8 3PA pg).
The Russ for Kyrie trade allowed the Lakers to rebuild their superstar big three but also to supplement the young and athletic roster they built in free agency with elite three high volume, high percentage 3-point shooters.
Why Trade Is A Huge Win for the Nets
Regardless of what they may say, the Brooklyn Nets have had it with Kyrie Irving and there is no way they want him on the team next season. The entire Nets organization blames Kyrie for the disaster last season.
For the Net, the opportunity to trade Kyrie to the Lakers and end up with Jakob Poeltl and Kendrick Nunn, two solid rotation players, LA’s 2027 first round pick, and a $30.7 million traded player exception is stunning. Realistically, the Nets should pull the trigger on this trade right away to avoid any risk that another NBA team might give the Spurs a more lucrative offer to take advantage of the their open cap space to dump bad contracts.
The Nets would be wise to execute the trade with the Lakers and Spurs so they can reassess their Kevin Durant trade opportunities to reflect the $30.7 million traded player exception they will have a year to use.
Why Trade Is a Huge Win for Spurs?
Most NBA fans forget that the most successful tanking campaign ever in the NBA was executed by none other than the San Antonio Spurs, who benched David Robinson much of the 1997 season in order to tank for Tim Duncan.
With their trade last week of Dejounte Murray, the Spurs officially kicked off their tanking campaign to draft Victor Wembanyama, the hot 7′ 3″ teenage French center who will be the #1 draft pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. San Antonio has created cap space to take on Russell Westbrook’s $47 million contract and/or other contracts teams want to dump for the right draft capital in compensation. They also have contracts they want to dump.
Rob Pelinka, Sean Marks, and R.C. Buford will all be in Las Vegas this weekend for Summer League. It’s not impossible that they may meet and finalize some version of a Russ for Kyrie trade before the week is over.
Why is the trade a big win for Russ and Kyrie?
Unsaid is that this is a trade driven by two superstars whose presence, or absence in Kyrie’s case, lead to stunning collapses by the two teams with superstar big threes who were heavy favorites to meet in the NBA Finals.
But after the Lakers missed the playoffs and the Nets became the only playoff team not to win even one game, Westbrook and Irving are now set to somehow land on their feet even after what was a disastrous season. Irving especially will find himself in a great position if he’s traded to the Laker, getting to play with LeBron James, with whom he won his only NBA ring, and Anthony Davis, still holding his Bird rights in a contract year
For Westbrook, he’s already said he’d negotiate a buyout rather than play for the Spurs so he’ll finally be free of his \max contract and will become an unrestricted free agent who can choose where to resume his career.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
The Lakers have a path to move Russell Westbrook but it’s going to cost them a first round pick and will have to be made before the OKC Thunder’s open cap space disappears when this NBA season ends tomorrow June 30th.
While trading Russ into OKC’s open cap space won’t yield a pair of proven rotation players earning $20 million per year, it would give the Lakers three borderline rotation players who would be upgrades over current players. Additionally, it would give the Lakers a $32.4 million traded player exception (TPE) to use to acquire players without sending out salary and the ability to hard cap themselves to use the full $10.4M MLE and $4.1M BAE.
Let’s look at the advantages trading Westbrook to OKC gives the Lakers and why that could be their best path to rebuilding their roster and hopefully returning to being a legitimate contender with a chance at a championship.
Trading Russell Westbrook Into OKC’s Cap Space
Solving the Lakers Westbrook conundrum starts with trading Russ’ $47.1 million expiring contract into the Oklahoma City Thunder’s open cap space, which will disappear on July 1, 2022 when SGA’s new extension starts.
Other than the Pistons and Knicks who have cleared cap space specifically for free agents, the Thunder is the only team with the cap space to absorb $32.4 million of the $47.1 million left in Westbrook’s expiring contract. Oklahoma City will want a first round pick from the Lakers as the price for using their cap space but should be willing to include elite defensive guard Luguentz Dort and 3&D wing Kenrich Williams as quality rotation players.
While the Lakers have positioned themselves as unwilling to include a pick to move Westbrook, there’s no way they want Russ to be part of the roster next season. Dumping him into OKC’s cap space opens other doors.
The Power of a $32.4 Million Traded Player Exception
Traded Player Exceptions allow teams to trade for players without having to send out salary. By sending out $47.1 million and receiving back only $13.4 million, the Lakers would create a $32.4 million traded player exception.
The Lakers could use the $32.4 million traded player exception from trading Westbrook into the OKC Thunder’s cap space for one or multiple players whom other teams are looking to move to save cap space and cut expenses. The Lakers could use their TPE to trade for the Hornets’ Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier, or Kelly Oubre, the Pacers’ Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner, or Buddy Hield, or the Knicks’ Evan Fournier or Cam Reddish
The Lakers’ $32.4 million Traded Player Exception would be good for a year and could be used to bring back a single elite player or multiple legitimate rotation players. It would be a valuable tool as teams look to create space.
The Benefits of the Lakers Hard Capping Themselves
Trading Russell Westbrook and their 2029 first round draft pick for Derrick Favors, Luguentz Dort, Kenrich Williams, and a $32.4 million traded player exception also enables the Lakers to take advantage of being hard capped.
Being hard capped has three distinct advantages over teams that are not hard capped. Hard capped teams get the full $10.3 million MLE vs. the $6.4 million TMLE, the $4.1 million BAE, and right to receive S&T players. Teams that are not hard capped are limited to the $6.4 million TMLE. Being hard capped opens up the entire free agent market as teams can receive players in sign-and-trade deals, a huge advantage for hard capped teams.
Being hard capped allows the Lakers to sign an elite perimeter defender like Warriors’ guard Gary Payton II to the $10.3 million MLE and a young stretch center like Clippers’ Isaiah Hartenstein to the $4.1 million BAE.
Can Lakers Transform Themselves Into Contenders?
The Los Angeles Lakers will continue to be legitimate contenders to win an NBA championship as long as they have a healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Nothing that happened last year has changed that.
For purposes of seeing what kind of team the Lakers could build by trading Westbrook into the Thunder’s cap space and hardcapping themselves, I’ve assumed the Lakers used their traded player exception on Hayward. I’ve also assumed the Lakers used their $10.3 million full MLE on Isaiah Hartenstein and their $4.1 million BAE on Gary Payton II and exercised their team options for Austin Reaves, Stanley Johnson, and Wenyen Gabriel.
Finally, I’ve assumed the Lakers traded Talen Horton-Tucker, Kendrick Nunn, and their 2027 first round draft pick to the Houston Rockets for Eric Gordon to provide elite 3-point shooting along with solid perimeter defense.
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It will be interesting to see if the Lakers or anybody else gets together with OKC to take advantage of their last chance to take on dump salary for a draft pick as SGA’s extension kicks in on 7/1.
I’d like to see the Lakers trade Russ into OKC’s cap space. The $32.4M TPE would be invaluable and could be used on multiple players over the next year to take advantage of teams wanting to move players to clear cap space and avoid luxury taxes.
May take a while and a couple of more moves but the Lakers could clearly benefit from investing the pick to move Russ to OKC, using the TPE to get Hayward, and then using the other pick and THT and Nunn to get a 3&D guard like Gordon. Finally, use the full MLE and BAE to get Payton II and Hartenstein.
Of course, Hayward, Gordon, Payton II, and Hartenstein could be four completely different players. In fact, Hayward could be two or three players. Trading with OKC may not be the Laker first choice, but it could end up being the best path forward.
Why this path is the Lakers best option is it eliminates the one thing that could destroy next season, which is Russell Westbrook. And it gives them thee serviceable players plus easy paths to five quality rotation players via the $32.4M TPE, THT/Nunn/Pick, $10.3M MLE, and $4.1M BAE.
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By trading Russ into OKC’s cap space, the Lakers get the following paths to acquire players:
1. Favors, Dort, and Williams.
2. $32.4M Traded Player Exception – e.g. Gordon Hayward
3. $19.5M in Players for THT, Nunn, and 2027 FRP – e.g. Eric Gordon
4. $10.3M Mid-Level Exception – e.g. Gary Payton II
5. $4.1M Bi-Annual Exception – e.g. Isaiah Hartenstein-
Aloha Tom
While your article is well thought out and makes a lot of sense for the Lakers, I don’t see that it makes a lot of sense for OKC. first they are asking a first rounder for Dort. They were also asking for a first round pick for Williams at the deadline. now I don’t think they get that, but they might for Dort. the 2nd problem is all they contracts they want to move are expiring and could simply be bought out. that would be a lot cheaper way to go. Okc has stock piled the most draft picks in NBA history and the 30+ mil they would have to eat on Russ’s deal would be very expensive for one first round pick five years from now.
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OKC seemingly just gonna give their young team a mid summer bonus. Maybe a deal gets done but J doubt it’s the one above. Could happen, but probably won’t.
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Not sure how this benefits the Thunder…. Dort is the kinda young, low-cost rotation guy that you wanna hang onto; not give away in a salary dump.
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They get a pick. I put Dort in the trade because word was he was also on the block. Guess 23 doesn’t fit with the 13-18 year-olds the Thunder are going to draft the next five years. Muscala is the logical third player and Lakers could make pick unprotected.
Point is this is the path to trading Russ and getting back easy to finish paths to four or five quality rotation players via the $32.4M TPE, THT/Nunn/Pick, $10.3M MLE, and $4.1M BAE It may not get us all the way back to contention but it will be a hell of a good start and if LeBron and AD are healthy…
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Rumors in OKC blogs are that the Thunder will look to acquire Hartenstein for themselves. Lakers have a pretty big hill to climb in 53 hours.
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Clippers plan to give him a raise to $2.25M and promise to make it up the next season. Lakers should go after him and Gary Payton II. Those are the kinds of players Darvin Ham and LeBron and AD need to become a legitimate contender.
The word has always been that OKC would take Russ into their cap space but it would cost draft capital. I think an unprotected post LeBron first round pick might be just what the Thunder need as their last draft pick nabbed before they start cashing in.
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The Warriors have early bird rights on Payton and they intend to keep him. They are also keeping Looney, they have full bird rights. This leaves their MLE for Porter Jr if he doesn’t get it offered more then 6.3 mil.
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This is a deal that becomes impossible unless done by end of day tomorrow. Will Lakers take the easy win and be happy to move on or will they say no to including a draft pick and end up keeping Russ.
I mean seriously. Keeping Russell Westbrook could come down to the Lakers not being willing to give up a first round pick for 5 years from now with LeBron James still not agreeing to an extension?
How Freaking Crazy is That?
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Of course there is always the chance that OKC doesn’t want this trade. There really isn’t good reason for OKC to do it.
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Ah Tom, gotta love your optimism. OKC being a dumping ground is going to happen less and less with how they are shaping their roster. Cap space isn’t a big issue for them next year because rarely are they a destination for upper-level free agents. As we just saw with Brooklyn’s lack of interest in him, the landing spots around the league have all but dried up and no one has an interest in a player who no longer is a good fit in today’s NBA. It’s looking more and more likely Tom he’ll be on the roster and we won’t be able to trade him until at or near the February trade deadline when teams have a better idea of where they stand and would like that cap space then if they are a struggling team looking to rebuild in the summer of 2023.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
When considering bringing back Westbrook, the Lakers would be wise to remember the astute words of Albert Einstein: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.”
While nobody knows what they are planning to do this offseason, the Los Angeles Lakers have been publicly and privately adamant that they prefer to bring Westbrook back rather than spending any draft picks to move him. This is despite having hired a rookie head coach in Darvin Him and Russ’ salary making it impossible for the Lakers to find players with the requisite size, shooting, and defense to complement their three superstars.
When you understand how daunting a challenge it would be, you can’t help coming to the conclusion it would be pure lunacy for the Lakers to even consider bringing back Russell Westbrook under any circumstances.
1. Russell Westbrook Is Not Going to Become a Pit Bull on Defense
The Lakers’ head coach Darvin Ham has made it clear that defense will be his priority with the Lakers and he expects to challenge Russell Westbrook to become an aggressive pit bull leading the team’s defense next season.
Anybody who has watched Russell Westbrook on defense the last few years of his career can immediately see the disconnect between what Darvin Ham wants out of Russell Westbrook and what he’s likely to get based on history. Ham must be thinking he’s getting the OKC Thunder version of Westbrook as a point guard if he thinks Russell can become the tip of spear for the Lakers’ defensively like Jrue Holiday was as the point guard for the Bucks.
The Lakers better be successful in moving Russ this summer because they’re making a crazy mistake opening the season thinking Westbrook will become an elite defender. Russell Westbrook is not Jrue Holiday.
2. Keeping Russell Westbrook Prevents Lakers Building Deep Roster
If the Lakers do not trade Russell Westbrook and his $47 million expiring contract, their only path to trading for a legitimate rotation player would be by packaging Talen Horton-Tucker, Kendrick Nunn, and their two picks.
That should be enough to net the Lakers a budding young player like 23-year old guard Gary Trent Jr. or 24-year old small forward OG Anunoby but then their small portfolio of trading chips would be completely exhausted. The Lakers could also sign a second rotation player with their $6.4 million taxpayer MLE but would then like last season be forced to build out the rest of their roster with unproven or veteran minimum salary players.
Keeping Westbrook will result in the Lakers adding just two legitimate rotation players (1 via trade and 1 via free agency) compared to the 5 they could add (3 via trade and 2 via free agency) if they instead traded Russ.
3. Keeping Russell Westbrook Limits Lakers Access to Free Agents
The Lakers’ rebuilding this summer has focused on trades since they’re over the cap and will only have the $6.4 million taxpayer MLE available to use on free agents. But that could change if the Lakers trade Russ.
Were the Lakers able to trade Westbrook, THT, and Nunn while taking back $10 million less in annual salary, they could get under the $155 million hard cap, which would give them greater access to this year’s free agent class. They could then use the full $10.3 million MLE and the $4.1 million BAE and be able to receive free agents via sign-and-trade transactions. They would have an additional $8.0 million to spend on free agents if hard capped.
Trading Russell Westbrook gives the Lakers access to young free agents like Isaiah Hartenstein, Tyus Jones, Gary Payton II, and Otto Porter, Jr. whom they might not be able to sign without trading Russ and hard capping.
4. Keeping Westbrook Could Cause LeBron James to Reject Extension
One rumor that’s made the rounds is LeBron does not want the Lakers to bring Westbrook back. The word is he knows signing Russ was a mistake but is not willing to sign an extension if Pelinka doesn’t fix problem.
Fixing the problem means one of two options: the Lakers either include a pick to move Russ or waive-and-stretch him to they can get under the hard cap and supplement what they get for Russ in a trade with free agents. Push come to shove, there’s no way the Lakers can finish this offseason with Russell Westbrook still on the roster. No matter how you spin it, that would signal a complete failure of the Lakers front office to build a winning roster.
The Lakers greatest fear has to be bringing back Russell Westbrook raises the risk that LeBron James to leave the Lakers as an unrestricted free agent next summer to a dangerous level that the Lakers should avoid at all costs.
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Include a pick if you have to but trade Russ for the best two rotation players you can get. Keeping Russ dooms the Lakers to another year of losses and frustration. All this talk is just talk. Lakers take best deal available or waive and stretch him.
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Look at the evidence that paints a picture beyond 82 games and waiving and stretching Russ handicaps in ways the Luol Deng deal never could, they absolutely will never pay him not to play. That’s coming from Jeannie, that’s not Roh posturing. Toss that idea out the same window as the Lakers will use every available tool to compete when we had Caruso’s Bird Rights, Schroder’s potential sign and trade j to cap space deal they could have made to add another spending tool and you start to understand that the Lakers want to be competitive but there is a ceiling. Don’t be surprised when we don’t go over the cap after Russ’s deal expires to avoid the repeater tax. LeBron doesn’t change that equation, they seem to half expect him to bolt after his deal is done. The Lakers are hedging bets which means they won’t be as competitive as they could be. That’s just the sad fact in terms of the current state of things.
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Seems like they might even be regretting the Klutch Konnection which makes a full rebuild feel eminent .
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Jamie, I know you want a complete rebuild but we both know that’s not going to happen.
Lakers could easily end up with an injured player earning $20M in a Russ trade. Being able to hard cap could be worth waive-and-stretching him if they really can’t trade him.
In the end, I believe the Lakers will give up a pick to move Russ for the best two rotation players they can get.
Bet better odds they W&S him than keep him even to the trade deadline.
imo. But at least we won’t have to wait too much longer to find out.
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I don’t disagree with your points Tom I just think there are several key things you either choose to overlook or don’t fully integrate into your thinking. If I were GM I would be leery of mortgaging the future so wholly and completely to move one player when the return is highly unlikely to bring a banner with it. However, I would push harder than I think Rob would to W&S Russ. I think the Lakers are feeling like “we just fine with that dang Deng situation…we don’t want to do that again…” which is, IMO, short-sighted. I’d of course kock the tires on any and all trade scenarios but honestly feel like, even with the picks, you’ll end doing as much harm as good. The market for Russ is drier than the Sahara desert in a heat wave. Same goes for Nunn and THT. It’s hard to see anything close to equitable coming back in a trade. I think the Lakers know and have accepted the following: they will be losers in any trade scenario (even with picks) this summer, Ham has accepted the challenge this roster presents and won’t be held accountable for its failures (they realize they’re giving him the equivalent of the S.S. Minnow complete with the cast of Gilligan’s Island for a team), LBJ and AD are tacitly on board (everyone has optimism in the summer) and to all that they are hoping for either a total 180 degree change (mainly powered by better health and not personal changes in hoops style) to the degree that the idea of a trade thaws a little. We’re talking about what amounts to $62 million in salary, that’s half the cap. Few teams are looking to rebuild on that scale, really zero. It’s too large a sum. THT could opt in to his PO (and whatever team traded for him would have his Bird Rights I believe) so if they’re believers they will have the chance to pony up the cash. I do believe the best deal the Lakers will find for any of the guys above will not be this summer but in 2023 prior to the deadline. We need to hope for a Kwame-esque trade but will probably have to hope for something less impactful. I just don’t see it happening this summer. To your points about putting Ham behind the 8 ball, of it hasn’t been discussed then all involved are idiots. Ham isn’t an idiot so I’m sure that, at the very least, he asked about if the Lakers are optimistic regarding their options to improve the team. I think he can handle it, the ace wont fall for the past errors of the front pffice.
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Jamie, first, I appreciate your reading and commenting. I also admit that I’m heavily biased against bringing Russ back and realize that colors my opinions. One of my strengths and weaknesses as an analyst is that I love the process of selling an idea and often find myself able to push both sides of an argument, which can lead to flip flopping. Add my natural bent to look at the glass half full and that also affects the debate. In the end, it’s just fun and I appreciate you and Michael always engaging. So thank you.
What’s the right answer on waiving and stretching Russ? Honestly, I’m not sure. I hated the Deng $5M following us forever and the idea of a Russ $15M for 3 years is not a happy thought. On the other side, however, would that be better than $40M invested in over-the-hill or injury prone veterans? I’m not sure of that, especially since it’s hard to clear cap space when you have two max players.
The other factor affecting my fluctuating support for W&S is being able to hard cap so we can access the class of free agents available, which hard capping gives us $14.4M to spend on non-minimum salary free agents instead of just $6.4M. That’s $8.0M more to chase players like Hartenstein, Payton II, Porter, Jr., Tyus Jones – all players we might not be able to get if not hard capped.
Do I think the Lakers will W&S Russ if they can’t find a trade? No but I think they will trade Westbrook. It may not be for a deal that I love but I’ve become a firm ‘addition by subtraction’ proponent, which is why the one option I cannot support is Russell Westbrook ever putting on the purple and gold. That just cannot happen imo.
Just where I am and I doubt my opinion is going to change.
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The main point for me and I have been preaching this for awhile is, there may not be a deal out there for Russ. I began looking at the local coverage of teams mentioned in these proposals and the Lakers players are never mentioned. Even THT and Nunn do not appear anywhere in these local writers articles. I had personally thought that the Hornets might be the most likely trade partner for Russ. Then I listened to a podcast with a Hornets beat writer. He said that early on he had heard that early on he thought a Russ trade could happen but the focus in the organizations had change to completing for the playoffs next year and they are looking for trades that upgrade the roster now. He even speculated that they might keep Hayward and bring him off the bench. As for THT, he is an example of what can happen when you get to cozy with Klutch. 20 years old should not be given a player option in year 3. If he breaks out he can walk. This diminishes his trade value as does Nunn’s expiring deal. Who knows a deal might shake out after trades are made and free agents are signed. But currently the Lakers do not seem to be a priority trade partner for anyone. That’s why like I said, I’m not holding my breathe. As for a waive and stretch, I’m with Jamie, I don’t think that helps us win a ring and 15 mil of dead money would be a killer moving forward. If Russ plays better and displays a better attitude perhaps there might be a deal for him before the deadline. But currently I’m thinking he at least plays part of the year with the Lakers.
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Michael, thanks for reading and commenting. More of a vent on my behalf for sure. I do think more information is always valuable and seeing what fans of other teams are saying can be revealing. Problem is most trades seem to be surprises that the teams front offices have been able to keep under wraps. That’s not saying publicized trades never happen just that most trades are a surprise. You’ve pointed out before that many of the Lakers options may not be the other team’s first options. I still believe Russ will be traded and to a team that’s been discussed because the trade will be about money and not Russ as a player.
So the big question to you is will the Lakers trade Russ. The big question to me is will the Lakers give up a pick to trade Russ. I still believe that including a pick will depend on whom they get. I don’t have a doubt they could pick up two terrible contracts for Russ that would hurt us even more than waiving and stretching Russ. We could end up with $40M of bad contracts instead of just 3 years of $15M in dead Russ money. This is a critical summer for the Lakers and what they do could color the rest of this decade.
What I find unreasonable is any optimism that Russell Westbrook would change his stripes. Betting on that is truly a lunatics’ position. Russ is not going to suddenly turn into a good fit. He is not Jrue Holiday. In fact, his approach to the game at both ends is the total opposite of Holiday. In the end, Russ fitting is a pipe dream designed to create the idea that the Lakers aren’t desperate to trade Russ. Hopefully, it will work with other general managers as good as it has worked with some Lakers fans.
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The posture now is to give Russ a chance to fit with Ham. Given the public trade scenarios, seems reasonable to me. A lot went wrong last season; I’m giving them a chance to right the ship before I look at alternatives.
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I agree Tom, I do not believe that you can change Russ. But if we do end up having to keep him I hope Ham follows through with his plans and brings an actual structured offense to the team. We all have complained from the time Frank arrived that our offense was give the ball to LeBron and let him create. Once Russ came on board it was more of the same. Something that resembles other NBA offenses will be welcomed and perhaps Russ in a defined role will be a little better then last year. If we are forced to keep Russ, I hope we keep Nunn as well. He is better then any of the Point guards we can get in our price range, you know he’s going to defend and his style of play fits well with LeBron. If Russ can’t adjust you have Nunn to take minutes away from him and I think Ham is not afraid to do that. I think LeBron will buy into reducing Russ’s role if that’s what’s needed. One more thing which could be a pipe dream but I think part of Russ’s bad year had to do with him trying to hard to make things happen. Having a structure to play in, along with this being his second year, perhaps things change. I doubt he regains his star status but if he could elevate his game from bad to say, decent it would be helpful. As it stands now there are only a few teams that have enough contracts that they want to move. And it is a real possibility that they find ways to move them that doesn’t involve eating 47 mil. There are actual deals out there that cold land these teams better assets without taking on Russ. I hope I’m wrong but right now there isn’t any indications that I am.
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All good points, Michael. It’s funny but there is a world where Russ has to realize this could be a chance to change the direction of his career. In fact, maybe his last chance. Wish I believed he would change because I have always loved his fierce approach to the game. Just have lost faith that Russ will change his spots. I’ll be there rooting for him if he does but I don’t expect it.
I also do think the Lakers will succeed in trading Russ although I admit the Lakers have been able to convince everybody that they’re going to keep him. In fact, you and Jamie seem to have bought the story. Don’t know if any GMs will buy out or what difference it will make in the end. I still am convinced the Lakers will use a pick to move him.
I have several scenarios where we keep Nunn, who I agree is a good for this roster. On the other hand, I have moved him in several scenarios in order to get under the hard cap, which I think is key to winning this offseason.
At any rate, great that were finally going to see what the Lakers can do and whether Rob Pelinka is likely to survive next season. Thanks for all the engaging conversation. Let’s hope Rob surprises us with a great summer.
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The Lakers and their fan base need to hope for some real seismic shifts. Otherwise everything feels pretty jammed up. Dame, a Gobert trade, Sousa, Beal are the level of shift I’m thinking needs to happen to crack things open a little. Cap space is kinda worthless when there really aren’t elite players to spend it on. Nobody gonna max out Gary Harris who could be the best available free agent this summer. Nor does it make much sense to assemble a team of $10-15 million dollar players. Next summer gets a little more interesting unless Wiggins and Jokic re-up. That’s why the clear the decks trade pitches don’t gain any traction with me. Nobody to spend all that coin on worth the spending. We’ve entered the era the NBA that is kind of mirroring MLB: keep as many impactful, cost-controlled players as you can for as long as you can and hope for the best. Replace as needed. The old Laker way of rooting the “We’re legendary and are willing to spend (kindaaaaa)” days are gone. Problem is the actual decision makers seem slow or unwilling to accept that reality. Gave all those players away but without replacing them, chose to go (too) big and it will be a choice that impacts the next few seasons. Also, I’m not in favor of a full tear down/rebuild Tom (although that may be the quickest path to consistent competitiveness) but rather I have embraced the idea of just riding it out this season. Then, no matter what, $52 mil comes off the books in Russ and Nunn, more if THT plays well enough to feel comfortable opting out (which I doubt in all honesty, he’d have to take steps forward on several fronts for that to happen IMO and we didn’t see any positive growth he could sustain after last summer). While neither imaginative or realistic in terms of shooting for a banner it is a sure-fire way to give the team all it’s spending tools (including the bi-annual exception) next summer. I think a worse option is W&S where we have a $15 million dollar handicap for the season’s we theoretically want to keep LBJ and AD happy. Same goes for a broken, impossible to trade player or two. Russ at least plays and he plays hard. The results are iffy but we’ve seen him able to positively affect a team that way in the past. So it won’t surprise me that the team that insists on living in the past does the same in regards to Russ. Would I do that as a GM? I don’t know, I’d want to see what Ham and Russ and Co. are working on in the lab and the fact remains that the trio barely played together. That’s probably enough to justify to many within the organization that running it back can work better. Title better? I’m not sure who could be imaginative enough to see that but then again the Rambii still have positions of power so that’s not an adjective I use to describe the Lakers these days.
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I agree pretty much with your assessment of the league right now. Feels like something massive is due to break this summer with Dame, Harden, Simmons, Gobert, Beal. CP3, Ayton. We’re either going to see the wildest summer ever or a big dud like the last two trade deadlines. Then your prediction of a massive trade deadline could happen.
Watching my Yankees dominate right now and hoping our Lakers could somehow get back to the top of the hill somehow. My best guess is it’s going to take two seasons and another Pau Gasol trade before the Lakers have a chance to do what my Yankees are doing right now. Overall, Darvin Ham may be the best move we make this summer and a real reason to be optimistic going forward.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
In what could be the opportunity the Los Angeles Lakers have been hoping for, Myles Turner appears likely to play out the last year of his contract rather than sign an extension which should move the Pacers to trade him.
The Lakers have long had a strong interest in Myles Turner and news that he will not sign an extension to stay with the Indiana Pacers should immediately rekindle the team’s interest in the 26-year old stretch center. Turner is exactly the player the Lakers need so that new head coach Darvin Ham can replicate the four-out, one-in offense his prior team, the Bucks, utilized with superstars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton.
With Turner leaving, the odds Indiana decides to trade him to avoid losing him for nothing but the Lakers will need to be extremely aggressive if they hope to win any bidding war with the Hornets and teams coveting him. While it may not be enough, the Lakers should go all-in on a mega deal with the Pacers to trade Westbrook, Horton-Tucker, Nunn, and their 2027 and 2029 unprotected first round draft picks for Turner, Brogdon, and Hield.
While teams rarely remove protection from first round picks, this is one of those opportunities where the Lakers need to turn their 2027 and 2029 first round picks into something extremely special, valuable, and tradeable.
Why the Lakers Make the Trade?
The Lakers are facing a ticking clock as LeBron James’ and Anthony Davis’ championship window appears to be closing as James approaches 38-years old and Davis struggles to remain healthy and effective outside the bubble.
This trade is as perfect as a trade could be for the Lakers as it allows them to swap Russell Westbrook and filler for three legitimate starters with needed size, shooting, and defense to complement James and Davis. With Darvin Ham taking over as the head coach, the Lakers are expected to install the four-out, one-in offense used by his former team, the Milwaukee Bucks, to create spacing for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton.
The key to the Bucks four-out offense working is having a stretch five center like Brook Lopez to be one of the four players stationed beyond the 3-point line. Other than in the bubble, Anthony Davis is not a proven stretch five. With Davis injured much of last season, the Lakers found themselves being destroyed by huge negative differentials in rebounding and points in the paint due to lineups that were undersized at almost every single position.
The problem is the Lakers lose their positional size advantage when they play LeBron and AD at the four and five. They need a center like Turner to allow James and Davis to dominate smaller players at the three and four. Starting a lineup of 6′ 5″ Malcolm Brogdon, 6′ 4″ Buddy Hield, 6′ 9″ LeBron James, 6′ 10″ Anthony Davis, and 6′ 11″ Myles Turner would give the Lakers the positional size advantage at all five of the positions on the floor.
Removing protection from two first round picks five and seven years from now when LeBron will be gone and Anthony Davis nearing the end of his career is a huge gamble by the Lakers but their only chance to land Turner.
Why the Pacers Make the Trade?
The Pacers need to decide what they’re doing. Are they going to try to completely rebuild from scratch or try to rebuild around Tyrese Haliburton and Isaiah Jackson and remain a playoff team in the Eastern Conference?
With Turner declining to sign an extension, it seems certain the Pacers are going to be looking to trade Turner as well as Brogdon and Hield, who are already on Indiana’s trading block. Pacers will surely not be short of suitors. The Charlotte Hornets, Brooklyn Nets, and other NBA teams will have significant interest in Turner, who finished among the top two shot blockers in the entire league the past three years and is still only 26-years old.
With the Pacers undergoing a partial rebuild around Haliburton and Jackson, getting two unprotected Lakers first round picks could be attractive to an established and secure general manager like Kevin Pritchard. While the picks are five and seven years away, they’re unprotected for a team that could struggle badly once LeBron retires and Davis ages could make them extremely valuable and tradeable.
Indiana has long been the preferred trading partner for the Lakers, partly because of the players they have who are available in trade and partly because they are a franchise with a very stable front office situation. Unlike many genera managers, Pritchard will likely still be running the Indiana Pacers front office when the Lakers 2027 and 2029 first round picks will be used, although they will likely be traded multiple times.
Indiana not only gets two Lakers’ post LeBron unprotected first round picks that could be extremely valuable but also gets a future young star in Horton-Tucker and saves $65 million on Brogdon’s and Hield’s contracts.
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This is just too good a trade for the Lakers to come true but they should pursue it. Only way I see the Pacers being interested is the two unprotected post-LeBron picks. Long shot but possible.
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I’d love to see it happen but see better offers from other teams getting in the way. That’s even if the Pacers trade him this summer. Makes a lot more sense, on their end, if they wait until the deadline to see how a team with Tyresse and Myles works. They can move other layers to try and move up. If they do end up trading Turner for picks they’ll likely be for ones this season. You do make a good point about it being fairly likely that Pritchard is the GM a few years from now but it’s not really a weighty point. Pacers aren’t building a team for five years from now, they want to compete right now, next season. Does the Laker trade facilitate that? Not really. It’ll be harder for a team like Indy to get the most out of that much cap space, as well. There aren’t many team-changing free agents for the next couple of seasons and Indy being as it is ain’t a destination franchise will likely have to content itself on overpaying role players. What they want are draft picks now to continue to build a cost-controlled, competitive team and hope they strike lightning. Does that mean the Lakers have no shot? I suppose not, anything could happen, but I can think of 4 or 5 teams that can offer something better in terms of draft assets, a higher yield on a more compartmentalized version of the trade and all without having to eat Westbrook’s salary. I honestly think you have a better shot if you limit to Nunn and THT for Turner plus the picks. Now that is an overpay, but it could be worth it based on the problems Turner could solve if he can stay on the floor. Since he’ll be playing for his next deal he has a lot of motivation but he, like AD, has had a real hard time playing most of a season his whole career. All in all I see an easy coast team like NY or Charlotte winning out simply because they have players that fit just as well as THT or Nunn but with picks that come in sooner.
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The other factor that I think works in the Lakers favor for both pursuing Turner and Hartenstein and that’s the continued devaluation of centers by teams, which is aso causing there to be multiple big name centers out there but only a few teams looking to prioritize the center position.
Phoenix not willing to pay Ayton. Utah looking to trade Gobert. None of the teams in the Finals willing to pay big money to a center. While Turner is only making $18M now, he’s looking for a big raise and a bigger role offensively going forward.
How many teams are going to trade valuable chips for a player who will want a huge raise at a position that there seem to be a never ending supply of capable minimum salary centers. Then there’s the foot injury. Turner may be a long shot but it’s not like he’s a rare legit 3&D wing.
Ham wants a stretch five center and that’s not Anthony Davis. Myles Turner solves all three major needs: size, shooting, and defense.
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I wouldn’t mind the THT and Nunn and Pick for Myles either. In fact, there probably isn’t a trade with the Pacers that I couldn’t convince myself was good. That’s a team with a lot of very good but no great players, no superstars. Add LeBron and AD to the Pacers roster and they’re champs. Give the Lakers three of their top six players and we could be champs. One positive is they are looking hard at the draft which says they’re really rebuilding. That makes the Lakers offer more viable than if they wanted to win now.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
The Los Angeles Lakers may have struck surprise gold in hiring Milwaukee Bucks’ assistant coach Darvin Ham to be their next head coach, a move that’s received universal praise and raised expectations about his impact.
With a veteran team coming off a horribly disappointing season, most NBA pundits expected the Lakers to hire an experienced NBA head coach or to delay their search until one like Quin Snyder or Doc Rivers became available. The Lakers instead smartly opted to hire the candidate with the greatest charisma and upside despite never having been a head coach before and mainly spending his time as an assistant coach in player development.
There’s strong evidence that indicates that Darvin Ham is going to become a major part of the executive brain trust making decisions for the Lakers, which is great news for an organization that needs dynamic leadership. Ham has the kind of intelligence that gains immediate respect, the type of personality that builds trust and confidence, and the elite communication skills to inspire Lakers’ stakeholders at every level from player to owner.
Unlike their previous coaching search that ended up hiring Frank Vogel, the Lakers avoided the public gaffes that resulted in hiring their third choice as head coach and having their entire hiring process rudely second guessed. Darvin Ham will start his tenure as Lakers’ coach with a longer contract and more power, independence, and influence than previous coach Frank Vogel had even after winning the NBA championship in the bubble in 2020.
So let’s look at how Darvin Ham could dramatically change the direction the Lakers take, including the possibility of his coaching Westbrook, whether Anthony Davis will play center, and whom the Lakers pursue this summer.
How Will Darvin Ham Affect the Lakers Russell Westbrook Decision?
The latest rumor making the rounds is that Darvin Ham’s answer to the question of what he would do to make Russell Westbrook work with LeBron James and Anthony Davis won him the job as the Lakers next head coach.
The Lakers have supposedly told potential trade partners they’d rather bring Russell Westbrook back next season than give up a first round draft pick to trade him, though they’re willing to take back long-term contracts. This doesn’t mean the Lakers are suddenly going to hold onto those picks and eventually use them. It just means they would prefer to use those picks to acquire valuable young players rather than just to dump Westbrook.
While it’s not a slam dunk that the Lakers will be able to find a trade partner for Russell Westbrook without giving up a draft pick, there will probably be teams willing to take on Russ’ expiring contract to dump salary. Ultimately, the last thing the Lakers should want to do at this point is ask first year head coach Darvin Ham to deal with trying to rehabilitate Russell Westbrook while learning to be an NBA head coach for the very first time.
That’s why all of the talk about bringing back Russ is posturing. Considering the concerns about LeBron’s age and AD’s ability to stay healthy, next season could be the Lakers best opportunity this decade to win #18. Ironically, I would not be surprised to find out Darvin also advised the Lakers that keeping Westbrook would make it difficult to surround James and Davis with the kind of shooting and defense needed to be a champion.
While the Lakers continue to push the idea that they’re going to keep Russ, in the end there’s just no way they’re going to ask rookie head coach Darvin Ham to take on a no-win situation like making Russ work LeBron and AD.
How Will Darvin Ham Affect the Offense the Lakers Run Next Season?
What will the Lakers’ offense look like under new head coach Darvin Ham? Look for an heavy emphasis on spacing, ball movement, and five-out sets designed to create driving lanes for James and Davis to attack the basket.
Darvin Ham was hired by the Lakers in part because of his success with the Bucks in creating the great spacing that was essential to unleashing Giannis Antetokounmpo and helping Milwaukee win the 2021 NBA Championship. The challenges facing the Bucks and Lakers are similar. The Lakers hope Darvin can build an offense to unleash LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the same way the Bucks’ offense unleashed Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The big question facing Darvin is whether to start games playing small with AD at the five or have the Lakers acquire a dynamic young stretch center like Isaiah Hartenstein so they can pay five-out with two bigs like the Bucks. Expect Ham to want to start games with two bigs but close them with small-ball-on-steroid lineups with AD at the five. That’s the perfect formula for the regular season with both big and small options available for the playoffs.
Considering injury concerns for James and Davis and how the undersized Lakers struggled in the paint and on the boards last season, moving James and Davis down a position against smaller players should benefit them. Finally, the versatility to play two-bigs with a center like Isaiah Hartenstein plus James and Davis or small-ball-on-steroids with a lethal 3-point shooting wing like Jerami Grant plus James and Davis could be a difference maker.
Expect Ham, as the Lakers new head coach, to push the team to build a roster with championship versatility to play two bigs like the 2021 Bucks and small-ball-on-steroids with AD at the five like the 2020 Lakers.
How Will Darvin Ham Affect the Defense the Lakers Run Next Season?
What can the Lakers expect their defense to look like under Darvin Ham? While they may be done with Frank Vogel, they may not be done with the pick-and-roll drop coverage that was the heart of his defensive philosophy.
The Lakers under Darvin Ham will likely play pick-and-roll drop coverage on defense like the Bucks with Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Lakers during the regular season when they won the title in 2020. While drop coverage was a successful for the Bucks and the Lakers during the regular season, both teams ended up playing small-ball-on-steroids lineups in the playoffs to take advantage of Antetokounmpo and Davis.
Schematically, when the Lakers go two bigs, they’ll play pick-and-roll drop coverage. But when they go small with Davis at the five, they’d be better off switching everything and counting on their positional size and physicality. The versatility to eat up minutes playing pick-and-roll drop coverage with two bigs to start games but closing with a small-ball-on-steroids lineup playing switch everything could be the Lakers’ perfect defensive formula.
Building a roster that can play both big and small is challenging. Starting games with a center but closing them with a wing essentially requires the team to have six starters with the center and wing sharing the fifth slot. For Darvin Ham to be able to start games with two bigs, the Lakers will need to trade for or sign a dynamic young center like Isaiah Hartenstein. They will also need to trade or sign a legitimate defensive wing like Otto Porter, Jr.
Expect Darvin Ham to play a similar defensive style to that of Frank Vogel. The Lakers rely on two bigs lineups during the regular season and rely more on their small-ball-on-steroid lineups when they get into the playoffs.
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The more I think about the similar needs of the Bucks and the Lakers when it comes to providing spacing for superstars, the more I think the considering of two Bucks assistants and the hiring of Darvin Ham was a savvy move by the Lakers. Giannis could be the more difficult superstar to create space for than even LeBron and AD.
While the rosters are not the same, the needs of the Bucks and Lakers to create spacing for their superstars while still playing good defense are eerily similar. It’s going to be fun and fascinating seeing what our identity become under Darvin Ham and what he’s going to change from what they did in MIlwaukee. Love the hire though. As excited as I can remember about a Lakers head coaching hire.
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I still think this is the trade the Lakers need to make. It’s a win for the Lakers, Nets, and Spurs. It brings the Lakers the superstar point guard they need plus three elite volume 3-point shooters to create spacing for LeBron, AD, and Kyrie. Great move short term and long term if Kyrie can show he can behave and fit.
The only scary thing is we know Pops and the Spurs hate the Lakers so they could kill this deal out of spite. Don’t think they would do that but you never know. Think there’s a chance this gets done sooner so they can lockup that $30.7 million TPE for a year. Let’s close this this weekend, Rob.