Lakerholics

When the path to acquire a coveted player is blocked, the smart strategy is often not to abandon that player as a target but to make moves to be in a better position to successfully trade for that player at the next opportunity.

The Los Angeles Lakers’ campaign to satisfy LeBron James’ wishes and land Kyrie Irving now appears to be dead as the Brooklyn Nets are expected to move forward with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving rather than trading them. The problem the Lakers are facing right now what direction should they go? Should they pursue a trade with the Indiana Pacers for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield or the Utah Jazz for Patrick Beverley and Bojan Bogdanovic.

There are two compelling reasons why the Los Angeles Lakers should trade Russell Westbrook and their 2027 and 2029 first round draft picks for a trio of Indiana Pacers players: Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, and T.J. McConnell. First, the trade would transform the Lakers from a lottery to a playoff team capable of competing for a championship. Second, the trade would give L.A. the key tradeable contracts to pursue Kyrie Irving at the deadline.

So let’s take a look at the proposed Westbrook and Horton-Tucker trades, evaluate whether the resulting roster can compete for a championship, and review how the Lakers will be better positioned to trade for Kyrie Irving.

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Turning Russell Westbrook into Three Legitimate Rotation Players

The Lakers’ first step in building a roster that can compete for an NBA championship is to break Westbrook’s $47 million contract into three smaller, more easily tradeable contracts for legitimate rotation players.

That’s exactly what the above proposed trade does. It breaks Westbrook’s massive $47 million contract into Myles Turner’s $18.0 million contract, Buddy Hield’s $21.1 million contract, and T.J. McConnell’s $8.1 contract. Myles Turner becomes the first modern center in Lakers’ history and the defensive rim protector and offensive floor stretcher new head coach Darvin Ham needs to successfully run the Milwaukee Bucks’ 4-out offense

Buddy Hield immediately becomes the Lakers’ starting shooting guard, providing LeBron James and Anthony Davis with the high volume, high percentage 3-point shooter they desperately need to create spacing. McConnell gives the Lakers an accomplished veteran backup point guard who can run the offense with almost a 5:1 assist to turnover ratio and is an elite defender who‘s among the league leaders in steals and deflections.

Frankly, no other Westbrook trade option gives the Lakers three players who are as perfect fits for what the team needs as the Indiana Pacers trade. It gets the Lakers 75% of the way to building a championship roster.

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Turning Talen Horton-Tucker into a 3&D Wing Defender and Scorer

The Lakers’ second step in building a roster than can compete for an NBA championship is to trade Talen Horton-Tucker and a second round pick to the New York Knicks for 3&D wing defender and scorer Cam Reddish.

Finding a bigger 3&D wing to backup James or Davis, guard bigger wing scorers like Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and possibly close games when the Lakers play small ball was one of the Lakers’ top offseason priorities. While he’s struggled with injuries and had an offseason with the Knicks, the 22-year old Cam Reddish is potentially the perfect player to fill the Lakers’ needs at small forward. At 6′ 8,” 217 lbs, he can defend and shoot the three.

While the Lakers will start games with Turner at the five and James and Davis at the three and four, their formula for closing games in the playoffs and key regular season matchups is to play small ball with AD at the five. The Los Angeles Lakers won the 2020 NBA championship in the bubble with a small-ball-on-steroids closing lineup that boasted a front court of Markieff Morris at the three, LeBron James at the four, and Anthony Davis at the five.

Look for Cam Reddish to fill the role Markieff Morris filled for the Lakers bubble championship team in a small-ball-on-steroids lineup with Reddish at the three, James at the four, and Anthony Davis as the small ball five.

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 Building a Championship Caliber Starting Lineup and Rotation

The Lakers’ offseason makeover could transform the team from a lottery loser to a legitimate championship contender with a dominant starting lineup backed by a deep, versatile, younger and more athletic bench.

Besides trading Westbrook and Horton-Tucker for Turner, Hield, McConnell, and Reddish, the Lakers also should waive Toscano-Anderson and Gabriel and promote Swider to a standard NBA contract from a two-way contract. That leaves the Lakers with a balanced 15-man roster with three point guards, shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards, and centers. The Lakers also have one opening for a two-way player next to Scotty Pippin Jr.

The Lakers’ starting fivesome of Nunn, Hield, James, Davis, and Turner should be among the best in the league. The main backups of McConnell, Reaves, Reddish, Johnson, and Bryant are all outstanding 3-point shooters. The reserves of Christie, Walker, Brown, Swider, and Jones provide Darvin Ham and his player development oriented coaching staff several talented young players who hopefully can grow and develop into contributors.

Trading Russ and THT for for four legitimate rotation players who are perfect fits for what the Lakers and their superstars need catapults the Lakers back into relevancy and the championship conversation.

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Building a Portfolio of Tradeable Contracts for Midseason Trades

Unlike this offseason, when they had just three players earning more than the minimum, the Los Angeles Lakers could position themselves to have six tradeable payers at the trade deadline earning more than the minimum.

Those six tradeable players — Buddy Hield, Myles Turner, T.J. McConnell, Lonnie Walker IV, Cam Reddish, and Kendrick Nunn — represent a total of $64,961,204 of tradeable salaries ranging from $5,250,000 to $21,177,750. Each of six of these players are young or in the prime of their careers and on easily traded contracts, They can be aggregated in multiple ways to match salaries in a midseason trade for a superstar like Kyrie Irving.

Unfortunately, the Lakers will likely not have any first round draft picks available at the trade deadline unless they were able to get the Pacers to accept a pick and a pick swap rather than two picks in Westbrook trade. However, they still have the ability to include a pick swap or multiple second round picks so the Lakers are not totally toothless when it comes to draft capital. Next summer, they will also have their 2023 first rounder.

Unlike last trade deadline, the Lakers will have an impressive portfolio of six talented young players at multiple positions on reasonable contracts whose salaries can be aggregated to matchup in any kind of trade.

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Don’t blink but Rob Pelinka is a blockbuster trade away from pulling off a miracle makeover that could see the Lakers start this season with a roster that’s better and deeper than their bubble championship team.

Think about what a preposterous statement that is because the Lakers, with the roster they have right now, would not even be a play-in team much less a playoff team. But that could change suddenly with a blockbuster trade. What Lakers fans have to remember is LeBron James and Anthony Davis, when healthy and rested, have already shown they can not only lead a team to an NBA championship but dominate the rest of the league while doing it.

What if the Lakers can trade Russell Westbrook, Talen Horton-Tucker, and their 2027 and 2029 first round draft picks for either Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris or Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Patrick Beverley, and T.J. McConnell? Swapping Russell Westbrook’s $47 million expiring contract for two players like Irving and Harris or for four players like Turner, Hield, Beverly, and McConnell making the same money could transform the Lakers’ rotations.

Let’s compare the rosters the Lakers would have were they to trade with the Nets for Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris or Pacers and Jazz for Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, T.J. McConnell, and Patrick Beverley with the bubble champs.

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Comparing Lakers After Kyrie Irving Trade to Bubble Champs

Let’s first compare the rosters the Lakers would have were they to trade Russell Westbrook and Talen Horton-Tucker to the Brooklyn Nets for Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris with the roster of the 2020 bubble champs.

Starters?

Irving and Harris would be upgrades over Caldwell-Pope and Green. While Bryant adds outside shooting, Howard is still the better center. Bottom line, Lakers’ post Nets trade starters would be better than bubble champs.

Backups?

This chart illustrates the hidden strength of the Lakers championship in the bubble was its backups. While Nunn, Reaves, and Jones are comparable to Rondo, Caruso, and McGee, no current backups match Kuzma or Morris.

Overall?

Even with weak backups, swapping Russell Westbrook for Kyrie Irving gives the Lakers a legitimate superstar big three no team in the league can match. Lakers would be among favorites to win it all if they trade for Kyrie.

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Comparing Lakers After Pacers and Jazz Trade to Bubble Champs

Now lets compare the Lakers roster if they traded Westbrook to the Pacers for Turner, Hield, and McConnell and Talen Horton-Tucker to the Jazz for 3&D point guard Patrick Beverley with the roster of the bubble champs.

Starters?

Trading Westbrook to the Pacers for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield and THT to the Jazz for Patrick Beverley would give the Lakers their best starting lineup in the LeBron era, even better than their bubble champs.

Backups?

While McConnell and Nunn give the Lakers a quality duo of backup guards comparable to what the bubble champs had, Los Angeles still does not have veteran backups who can compare to Kuzma, Morris, and McGee.

Overall?

Featuring younger, more athletic rather than older veteran backups, the Lakers’ roster after trading with the Pacers and Jazz would be bigger, better, and deeper than the roster of the team’s 2020 bubble champions. 

Last summer, LeBron wanted Russell Westbrook. This summer, he wants Kyrie Irving. As expected, the Lakers front office again appears ready to give James what he wants and trade for Irving despite last season’s lessons.

So far, the Lakers have done everything right. They hired a charismatic young defense-first head coach who runs a modern NBA offense in Darvin Ham and revamped their roster to be younger, longer, and more athletic. All the Lakers need to do to miraculously bounce back from last year is trade for players who complement and help James and Davis rather than players who will take valuable touches and points away from them.

Ironically, the Lakers find themselves in almost the same situation as last summer, when they pulled out of a Buddy Hield trade at the last minute to instead trade for Russell Westbrook to become the team’s third superstar. Today, the Lakers know they can trade Westbrook and two first round draft picks to the Pacers for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield. Yet, they can’t resist waiting for a chance to trade for Kyrie to be their third superstar.

Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris or Myles Turner and Buddy Hield? Offense plus 3rd star or defense plus depth? Here’s why the Lakers should choose defense plus depth and trade Westbrook for Turner and Hield:

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1. Turner and Hield Won’t Take Touches From James and Davis

Rule #1 for Rob Pelinka and the Lakers is don’t do things that will take away from LeBron James and Anthony Davis. While Kyrie Irving is a huge upgrade over Russell Westbrook, he will take touches from LeBron and AD.

On the other hand, Myles Turner and Buddy Hield will complement and make it easier for LeBron James and Anthony Davis by giving them the spacing and support to enjoy career seasons and regain top-5 standing. Strategically, the last thing the Lakers should do is take the ball from LeBron James and Anthony Davis but that is exactly what happens when you add a third ball dominant superstar like Russell Westbrook or Kyrie Irving.

There’s no argument that replacing Russell Westbrook with Kyrie Irving would be a major upgrade for the point guard position and for the Lakers superstar big three. The question is whether a superstar big three is best. There’s an argument two superstars and a deeper, more versatile roster is a better championship formula than three superstars and a shallower, less versatile roster as there simply aren’t enough touches for three superstars.

The Lakers were lucky injuries kept LeBron and AD from having to sacrifice touches to Russ last season. They need to realize trading for Kyrie Irving will definitely take away touches from LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

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2. Turner and Hield Will Make Lakers Better Defensive Team

The Lakers need to follow up their successful hiring of charismatic young defense-first head coach Darvin Ham by trading Russell Westbrook for the package of players that will make the Lakers a better defensive team.

It’s one thing to say defense wins championships but another to follow through when it comes to making trades but that’s the challenge the Lakers are facing right now. Should they trade Westbrook for offense or defense? Having committed to a 4-out offense with two bigs, the Lakers would be forced to gamble by having an untested young player in Thomas Bryant or Damian Jones start at center should they end up trading for Kyrie Irving.

Trading Westbrook for Turner, on the other hand, would give the Lakers the elite defensive anchor they desperately need. Myles Turner led the league in blocked shots past two seasons and is still only just 26-years old. Turner protecting the rim also frees Davis to play the four and roam the paint as a help shot blocker or play the three and become the Lakers’ wing stopper, which has become today’s most important defensive role in NBA.

Pairing Myles Turner, who led the league in blocked shots the past two seasons, with Anthony Davis would give the Lakers the best defensive front court duo in the NBA and 48 minutes of elite rim protection every game.

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3. Turner and Hield Are Better Fits for Head Coach Darvin Ham

The Lakers only have to look back at the disconnect between the front office and the coaching staff last season to understand the importance of an organization to be on the same page and working in the same direction.

Being a first time head coach in the NBA is a daunting enough challenge without having also to deal with the front office not giving you the players who best fit the kind of offense and defense you want to run as the coach. Asking a brand new head coach like Darvin Ham to resurrect a legendary franchise after one of the worst seasons in its storied history is enough without asking him to deal with Russell Westbrook or Kyrie Irving.

The Lakers would be smart to give Darvin Ham the players he needs to make his offense and defense work. That means a proven rim protecting, floor spacing modern center and aggressive attack dog at point guard. Myles Turner would be the proven shot blocker and 3-point shooter Ham needs instead of an untested youngster and Patrick Beverley could be the 3&D point guard Ham needs instead of the defensively inept Kyrie Irving.

The Lakers need to resist the lure of a third superstar and focus on giving defense-first head coach Darvin Ham the players he needs to build a championship defense by trading for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield.

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4. Turner and Hield Will Make Lakers Deeper and More Versatile

The problem with three superstars is it forces teams to build out the rest of their starting lineup and rotations with unproven young players, over-the-hill veterans, or guys coming off injuries who only make the minimum.

The result is a team that is extremely vulnerable to injuries to their big three and lacks the quality in the other starters and first backups off the bench to win, especially when it comes to the high pressure of the playoffs. Building a deep and versatile roster is impossible when you’re paying all three superstars max salaries. Not only are there not enough touches for all three players but there’s no money left over to build the rest of the roster.

Part of the goal of trading Westbrook is to transform him into three players earning $47 million combined. If they trade for Turner and Hield, they will still have assets to add another key piece, like point guard Pat Beverley. Should the Lakers trade for Kyrie Irving, who earns $37 million, the Lakers would not have trade capital to be able to make a second trade for Beverley. And they would start a young center whose never started for a full season.

The Lakers need depth and their goal should be to trade Russ and THT for at least four legitimate rotation players including at least two high impact defenders like Turner and Beverley to give Ham the defenders he needs.

During a meeting between the Lakers and Klutch Sports, Lakers’ head coach Darvin Ham proclaimed he planned to ‘run the Lakers’ offense through Anthony Davis’ this coming season, a move approved by LeBron James.

This would be a major change for any LeBron team much less a Lakers team that’s relied upon the ball being in James’ hands since he signed as a free agent four years ago. Whether Ham can accomplish this is uncertain. What Ham’s proclamation and James’ approval signal is a recognition that it’s time for Anthony Davis to take the baton as the face of the franchise and for the Lakers to begin limiting the workload on 37-year old LeBron James.

The Lakers’ major offensive challenge has been creating spacing to prevent teams from packing the paint and forcing LeBron James and Anthony Davis to settle for outside jumpers rather than attacking the paint and the basket. Darvin Ham’s pitch to the Lakers’ front office was that the 4-out offense he ran on the Bucks with Antetokounmpo, Lopez, and Holiday could create the spacing needed by the Lakers’ big three of James, Davis, and Westbrook.

Let’s look at why Darvin Ham’s 4-out offense should give LeBron and AD more spacing than last year’s 5-out sets, where James and Davis play in the new offense, and what it means to run the offense through Anthony Davis.

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Why Do 4-Out Sets Provide Better Spacing Than 5-Out Sets?

The above is the Milwaukee Bucks practice court with five blue rectangles head coach Mike Budenholzer had drawn on the court to show his players where they should be in the 4-out offense to create the best spacing.

Before changing to a 4-out offense two years ago, Budenholzer had been running 5-out sets but had been frustrated how, even with all five players spaced outside the 3-point line, defenders were still close enough to help. Switching to 4-out sets where first player down the court fills the dunker slot and the next two the corners pins three defenders to the baseline to give the remaining two offensive players the maximum possible spacing.

Budenholzer’s goal in evolving from a 5-out offense to a 4-out offense was to increase the space between defenders so that it become more difficult for defenders to help or stop scoring wings from attacking the paint and rim. Obviously, Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office are betting the spacing from Darvin Ham‘s’4-out offense can do for LeBron James and Anthony Davis what it did for the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.

In today’s NBA, the prevailing theory is 5-out sets maximize spacing. While 5-out sets spread defenses and force every player to defend the 3-point line, 4-out sets give elite perimeter players more space to attack defenses.

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Where Do LeBron James and Anthony Davis Play in 4-Out Offense?

Unlike Frank Vogel offense, Darvin Ham’s 4-out offense is a positionless system. Players take spots on the court based on the order they arrive in the front court rather than the position in the lineup they play.

In Darvin Ham’s 4-out offense, the first player down the court takes the dunker spot, in this case Brook Lopez. The second and third players down the court — Bobby Portis and Grayson Allen — go to left and right corners. Assuming no early offense, the fourth and fifth players down the court — Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton — become the wings with potential help defenders too far away to keep them from penetrating.

The Lakers will be actively looking for early offense opportunities, either a pass to AD or another defender who leaked out after challenging a 3-point shot or to the second and third players who filled the left and right corner. While the Lakers new offense is positionless, LeBron James and Anthony Davis will often wind up being the two wings at the top of the key with the other three players and their defenders lined up along the baseline.

While there will be matchups where the Lakers’ superstars post up, James and Davis will usually be positioned on the wings above the break with the greatest possible space between help defenders on the left and right.

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What Does Running the Offense Through Anthony Davis Really Mean?

Running the offense through Anthony Davis really means featuring him as the Lakers’ primary offensive weapon, the superstar whom the team relies upon to lead in scoring and get them a bucket when desperately needed.

The last three years, LeBron James remained as the Lakers’ leading scorer, averaging 25.3, 25.0, and 30.3 points per game versus 26.1, 21.8, and 23.2 points per game averaged by Anthony Davis during the same three years. When it came to total shot attempts, LeBron James averaged 19.4, 18.3, and 21.8 shot attempts per game the last three years versus 17.7, 17.0, and 17.4 shot attempts per game for Anthony Davis over the same three years.

If the Lakers want to compete for an NBA championship, they’re going to need both LeBron James and Anthony Davis to stay healthy all season and perform at the same heightened level they played to win in the bubble. Realistically, if the Lakers run their offense through AD, he should be expected to lead the team with 20 shot attempts and 30 points per game with LeBron backing him up with 15 shot attempts and 25 points per game.

The Los Angeles Lakers are at a critical crossroads and desperately need to find out whether Anthony Davis can take the baton from LeBron James and become the lead superstar through whom they can run their offense.

Everybody knows what the Lakers want, which is LeBron’s signature on a 2-year $97 million contract extension with a player option on the second year but the big question is what does LeBron James want from the Lakers? 

So what would constitute ‘productive’ discussions when LeBron James and his agent Rich Paul of Klutch Sports met with the Lakers’ head of basketball operations Rob Pelinka yesterday about LeBron James’ contract extension? While LeBron’s eligible to sign an extension today, what’s more important is that James and the Lakers can now legally discus specific parameters Klutch Sports wants as conditions for LeBron James signing the 2-year extension.

Whether LeBron signs the extension now or waits until before training camp in October doesn’t matter at this point. All that matters is the Lakers know exactly what they need to accomplish to get LeBron James to sign extension. ‘Productive’ extension discussions could be as general as Klutch telling the Lakers that they need to trade both first round draft picks or as specific as Rich Paul saying the Lakers need to trade for Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris.

Pelinka surely walked James and Paul through the Lakers’ Big Board of possible Russell Westbrook trades both to show them their overall game plan but also to get feedback as to what LeBron and Rich were thinking. LeBron’s always been consulted when the Lakers made major moves so formally presenting their grand plans to LeBron and integrating his feedback would have been the logical path for ‘productive’ discussions.

Right now, LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are in compete lock step that trading for Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris or Seth Curry is the team’s Plan A. If successful, there’s no question James would sign the extension. Plan B right now is the Lakers trading Russell Westbrook for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield. If Lakers strike out on Kyrie, I think James understands how both Turner and Hield could make James’ and Davis’ jobs easier.

The key to the Lakers presentation is trading Russell Westbrook. Chances are the Lakers have one or two Westbrook trades that represent their back ups if they cannot complete either the Irving or Turner and Hield trades. Fortunately for the Lakers, they’re confident the worst outcome if they miss out on their first two options would be having to trade Westbrook for their third or fourth options. There is no option where Westbrook comes back.

What the Lakers will make clear in the days to come is that they will do what they need to rebuild their roster championship caliber to better complement LeBron and AD and convince LeBron to sign the extension.