Lakerholics

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Don’t blink but Rob Pelinka is a blockbuster trade away from pulling off a miracle makeover that could see the Lakers start this season with a roster that’s better and deeper than their bubble championship team.

Think about what a preposterous statement that is because the Lakers, with the roster they have right now, would not even be a play-in team much less a playoff team. But that could change suddenly with a blockbuster trade. What Lakers fans have to remember is LeBron James and Anthony Davis, when healthy and rested, have already shown they can not only lead a team to an NBA championship but dominate the rest of the league while doing it.

What if the Lakers can trade Russell Westbrook, Talen Horton-Tucker, and their 2027 and 2029 first round draft picks for either Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris or Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Patrick Beverley, and T.J. McConnell? Swapping Russell Westbrook’s $47 million expiring contract for two players like Irving and Harris or for four players like Turner, Hield, Beverly, and McConnell making the same money could transform the Lakers’ rotations.

Let’s compare the rosters the Lakers would have were they to trade with the Nets for Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris or Pacers and Jazz for Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, T.J. McConnell, and Patrick Beverley with the bubble champs.

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Comparing Lakers After Kyrie Irving Trade to Bubble Champs

Let’s first compare the rosters the Lakers would have were they to trade Russell Westbrook and Talen Horton-Tucker to the Brooklyn Nets for Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris with the roster of the 2020 bubble champs.

Starters?

Irving and Harris would be upgrades over Caldwell-Pope and Green. While Bryant adds outside shooting, Howard is still the better center. Bottom line, Lakers’ post Nets trade starters would be better than bubble champs.

Backups?

This chart illustrates the hidden strength of the Lakers championship in the bubble was its backups. While Nunn, Reaves, and Jones are comparable to Rondo, Caruso, and McGee, no current backups match Kuzma or Morris.

Overall?

Even with weak backups, swapping Russell Westbrook for Kyrie Irving gives the Lakers a legitimate superstar big three no team in the league can match. Lakers would be among favorites to win it all if they trade for Kyrie.

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Comparing Lakers After Pacers and Jazz Trade to Bubble Champs

Now lets compare the Lakers roster if they traded Westbrook to the Pacers for Turner, Hield, and McConnell and Talen Horton-Tucker to the Jazz for 3&D point guard Patrick Beverley with the roster of the bubble champs.

Starters?

Trading Westbrook to the Pacers for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield and THT to the Jazz for Patrick Beverley would give the Lakers their best starting lineup in the LeBron era, even better than their bubble champs.

Backups?

While McConnell and Nunn give the Lakers a quality duo of backup guards comparable to what the bubble champs had, Los Angeles still does not have veteran backups who can compare to Kuzma, Morris, and McGee.

Overall?

Featuring younger, more athletic rather than older veteran backups, the Lakers’ roster after trading with the Pacers and Jazz would be bigger, better, and deeper than the roster of the team’s 2020 bubble champions. 

Last summer, LeBron wanted Russell Westbrook. This summer, he wants Kyrie Irving. As expected, the Lakers front office again appears ready to give James what he wants and trade for Irving despite last season’s lessons.

So far, the Lakers have done everything right. They hired a charismatic young defense-first head coach who runs a modern NBA offense in Darvin Ham and revamped their roster to be younger, longer, and more athletic. All the Lakers need to do to miraculously bounce back from last year is trade for players who complement and help James and Davis rather than players who will take valuable touches and points away from them.

Ironically, the Lakers find themselves in almost the same situation as last summer, when they pulled out of a Buddy Hield trade at the last minute to instead trade for Russell Westbrook to become the team’s third superstar. Today, the Lakers know they can trade Westbrook and two first round draft picks to the Pacers for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield. Yet, they can’t resist waiting for a chance to trade for Kyrie to be their third superstar.

Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris or Myles Turner and Buddy Hield? Offense plus 3rd star or defense plus depth? Here’s why the Lakers should choose defense plus depth and trade Westbrook for Turner and Hield:

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1. Turner and Hield Won’t Take Touches From James and Davis

Rule #1 for Rob Pelinka and the Lakers is don’t do things that will take away from LeBron James and Anthony Davis. While Kyrie Irving is a huge upgrade over Russell Westbrook, he will take touches from LeBron and AD.

On the other hand, Myles Turner and Buddy Hield will complement and make it easier for LeBron James and Anthony Davis by giving them the spacing and support to enjoy career seasons and regain top-5 standing. Strategically, the last thing the Lakers should do is take the ball from LeBron James and Anthony Davis but that is exactly what happens when you add a third ball dominant superstar like Russell Westbrook or Kyrie Irving.

There’s no argument that replacing Russell Westbrook with Kyrie Irving would be a major upgrade for the point guard position and for the Lakers superstar big three. The question is whether a superstar big three is best. There’s an argument two superstars and a deeper, more versatile roster is a better championship formula than three superstars and a shallower, less versatile roster as there simply aren’t enough touches for three superstars.

The Lakers were lucky injuries kept LeBron and AD from having to sacrifice touches to Russ last season. They need to realize trading for Kyrie Irving will definitely take away touches from LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

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2. Turner and Hield Will Make Lakers Better Defensive Team

The Lakers need to follow up their successful hiring of charismatic young defense-first head coach Darvin Ham by trading Russell Westbrook for the package of players that will make the Lakers a better defensive team.

It’s one thing to say defense wins championships but another to follow through when it comes to making trades but that’s the challenge the Lakers are facing right now. Should they trade Westbrook for offense or defense? Having committed to a 4-out offense with two bigs, the Lakers would be forced to gamble by having an untested young player in Thomas Bryant or Damian Jones start at center should they end up trading for Kyrie Irving.

Trading Westbrook for Turner, on the other hand, would give the Lakers the elite defensive anchor they desperately need. Myles Turner led the league in blocked shots past two seasons and is still only just 26-years old. Turner protecting the rim also frees Davis to play the four and roam the paint as a help shot blocker or play the three and become the Lakers’ wing stopper, which has become today’s most important defensive role in NBA.

Pairing Myles Turner, who led the league in blocked shots the past two seasons, with Anthony Davis would give the Lakers the best defensive front court duo in the NBA and 48 minutes of elite rim protection every game.

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3. Turner and Hield Are Better Fits for Head Coach Darvin Ham

The Lakers only have to look back at the disconnect between the front office and the coaching staff last season to understand the importance of an organization to be on the same page and working in the same direction.

Being a first time head coach in the NBA is a daunting enough challenge without having also to deal with the front office not giving you the players who best fit the kind of offense and defense you want to run as the coach. Asking a brand new head coach like Darvin Ham to resurrect a legendary franchise after one of the worst seasons in its storied history is enough without asking him to deal with Russell Westbrook or Kyrie Irving.

The Lakers would be smart to give Darvin Ham the players he needs to make his offense and defense work. That means a proven rim protecting, floor spacing modern center and aggressive attack dog at point guard. Myles Turner would be the proven shot blocker and 3-point shooter Ham needs instead of an untested youngster and Patrick Beverley could be the 3&D point guard Ham needs instead of the defensively inept Kyrie Irving.

The Lakers need to resist the lure of a third superstar and focus on giving defense-first head coach Darvin Ham the players he needs to build a championship defense by trading for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield.

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4. Turner and Hield Will Make Lakers Deeper and More Versatile

The problem with three superstars is it forces teams to build out the rest of their starting lineup and rotations with unproven young players, over-the-hill veterans, or guys coming off injuries who only make the minimum.

The result is a team that is extremely vulnerable to injuries to their big three and lacks the quality in the other starters and first backups off the bench to win, especially when it comes to the high pressure of the playoffs. Building a deep and versatile roster is impossible when you’re paying all three superstars max salaries. Not only are there not enough touches for all three players but there’s no money left over to build the rest of the roster.

Part of the goal of trading Westbrook is to transform him into three players earning $47 million combined. If they trade for Turner and Hield, they will still have assets to add another key piece, like point guard Pat Beverley. Should the Lakers trade for Kyrie Irving, who earns $37 million, the Lakers would not have trade capital to be able to make a second trade for Beverley. And they would start a young center whose never started for a full season.

The Lakers need depth and their goal should be to trade Russ and THT for at least four legitimate rotation players including at least two high impact defenders like Turner and Beverley to give Ham the defenders he needs.

During a meeting between the Lakers and Klutch Sports, Lakers’ head coach Darvin Ham proclaimed he planned to ‘run the Lakers’ offense through Anthony Davis’ this coming season, a move approved by LeBron James.

This would be a major change for any LeBron team much less a Lakers team that’s relied upon the ball being in James’ hands since he signed as a free agent four years ago. Whether Ham can accomplish this is uncertain. What Ham’s proclamation and James’ approval signal is a recognition that it’s time for Anthony Davis to take the baton as the face of the franchise and for the Lakers to begin limiting the workload on 37-year old LeBron James.

The Lakers’ major offensive challenge has been creating spacing to prevent teams from packing the paint and forcing LeBron James and Anthony Davis to settle for outside jumpers rather than attacking the paint and the basket. Darvin Ham’s pitch to the Lakers’ front office was that the 4-out offense he ran on the Bucks with Antetokounmpo, Lopez, and Holiday could create the spacing needed by the Lakers’ big three of James, Davis, and Westbrook.

Let’s look at why Darvin Ham’s 4-out offense should give LeBron and AD more spacing than last year’s 5-out sets, where James and Davis play in the new offense, and what it means to run the offense through Anthony Davis.

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Why Do 4-Out Sets Provide Better Spacing Than 5-Out Sets?

The above is the Milwaukee Bucks practice court with five blue rectangles head coach Mike Budenholzer had drawn on the court to show his players where they should be in the 4-out offense to create the best spacing.

Before changing to a 4-out offense two years ago, Budenholzer had been running 5-out sets but had been frustrated how, even with all five players spaced outside the 3-point line, defenders were still close enough to help. Switching to 4-out sets where first player down the court fills the dunker slot and the next two the corners pins three defenders to the baseline to give the remaining two offensive players the maximum possible spacing.

Budenholzer’s goal in evolving from a 5-out offense to a 4-out offense was to increase the space between defenders so that it become more difficult for defenders to help or stop scoring wings from attacking the paint and rim. Obviously, Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office are betting the spacing from Darvin Ham‘s’4-out offense can do for LeBron James and Anthony Davis what it did for the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.

In today’s NBA, the prevailing theory is 5-out sets maximize spacing. While 5-out sets spread defenses and force every player to defend the 3-point line, 4-out sets give elite perimeter players more space to attack defenses.

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Where Do LeBron James and Anthony Davis Play in 4-Out Offense?

Unlike Frank Vogel offense, Darvin Ham’s 4-out offense is a positionless system. Players take spots on the court based on the order they arrive in the front court rather than the position in the lineup they play.

In Darvin Ham’s 4-out offense, the first player down the court takes the dunker spot, in this case Brook Lopez. The second and third players down the court — Bobby Portis and Grayson Allen — go to left and right corners. Assuming no early offense, the fourth and fifth players down the court — Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton — become the wings with potential help defenders too far away to keep them from penetrating.

The Lakers will be actively looking for early offense opportunities, either a pass to AD or another defender who leaked out after challenging a 3-point shot or to the second and third players who filled the left and right corner. While the Lakers new offense is positionless, LeBron James and Anthony Davis will often wind up being the two wings at the top of the key with the other three players and their defenders lined up along the baseline.

While there will be matchups where the Lakers’ superstars post up, James and Davis will usually be positioned on the wings above the break with the greatest possible space between help defenders on the left and right.

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What Does Running the Offense Through Anthony Davis Really Mean?

Running the offense through Anthony Davis really means featuring him as the Lakers’ primary offensive weapon, the superstar whom the team relies upon to lead in scoring and get them a bucket when desperately needed.

The last three years, LeBron James remained as the Lakers’ leading scorer, averaging 25.3, 25.0, and 30.3 points per game versus 26.1, 21.8, and 23.2 points per game averaged by Anthony Davis during the same three years. When it came to total shot attempts, LeBron James averaged 19.4, 18.3, and 21.8 shot attempts per game the last three years versus 17.7, 17.0, and 17.4 shot attempts per game for Anthony Davis over the same three years.

If the Lakers want to compete for an NBA championship, they’re going to need both LeBron James and Anthony Davis to stay healthy all season and perform at the same heightened level they played to win in the bubble. Realistically, if the Lakers run their offense through AD, he should be expected to lead the team with 20 shot attempts and 30 points per game with LeBron backing him up with 15 shot attempts and 25 points per game.

The Los Angeles Lakers are at a critical crossroads and desperately need to find out whether Anthony Davis can take the baton from LeBron James and become the lead superstar through whom they can run their offense.

Everybody knows what the Lakers want, which is LeBron’s signature on a 2-year $97 million contract extension with a player option on the second year but the big question is what does LeBron James want from the Lakers? 

So what would constitute ‘productive’ discussions when LeBron James and his agent Rich Paul of Klutch Sports met with the Lakers’ head of basketball operations Rob Pelinka yesterday about LeBron James’ contract extension? While LeBron’s eligible to sign an extension today, what’s more important is that James and the Lakers can now legally discus specific parameters Klutch Sports wants as conditions for LeBron James signing the 2-year extension.

Whether LeBron signs the extension now or waits until before training camp in October doesn’t matter at this point. All that matters is the Lakers know exactly what they need to accomplish to get LeBron James to sign extension. ‘Productive’ extension discussions could be as general as Klutch telling the Lakers that they need to trade both first round draft picks or as specific as Rich Paul saying the Lakers need to trade for Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris.

Pelinka surely walked James and Paul through the Lakers’ Big Board of possible Russell Westbrook trades both to show them their overall game plan but also to get feedback as to what LeBron and Rich were thinking. LeBron’s always been consulted when the Lakers made major moves so formally presenting their grand plans to LeBron and integrating his feedback would have been the logical path for ‘productive’ discussions.

Right now, LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are in compete lock step that trading for Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris or Seth Curry is the team’s Plan A. If successful, there’s no question James would sign the extension. Plan B right now is the Lakers trading Russell Westbrook for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield. If Lakers strike out on Kyrie, I think James understands how both Turner and Hield could make James’ and Davis’ jobs easier.

The key to the Lakers presentation is trading Russell Westbrook. Chances are the Lakers have one or two Westbrook trades that represent their back ups if they cannot complete either the Irving or Turner and Hield trades. Fortunately for the Lakers, they’re confident the worst outcome if they miss out on their first two options would be having to trade Westbrook for their third or fourth options. There is no option where Westbrook comes back.

What the Lakers will make clear in the days to come is that they will do what they need to rebuild their roster championship caliber to better complement LeBron and AD and convince LeBron to sign the extension.

Injuries to their superstars not only helped derail the Lakers’ championship hopes the past two seasons but may also have caused them to forget just how great they can still be as a team with a healthy, rested James and Davis.

Has the Lakers’ front office forgotten that LeBron and AD led them to their league best 17th NBA championship in the bubble less than two years ago? Or that there’ s no better duo than LeBron and AD when they are healthy? Have they forgotten how difficult it was to surround three superstars with rotation players when all you’re able to pay is the league minimum or how lack of depth doomed the Lakers when hit with untimely injuries?

Right now, the Nets’ Kyrie Irving is the Lakers’ Plan A and the Pacers’ Myles Turner and Buddy Hield their Plan B. The only question is whether the Lakers are making a mistake by once again going for a Superstar Big Three. There appears to be disagreement in the front office whether the Lakers should trade point guard Russell Westbrook for another third superstar like Kyrie Irving or opt for depth via multiple rotation players.

There’s no question a healthy Kyrie Irving would make the Los Angeles Lakers a championship contender on the court if his off-court pyrotechnics and personal idiosyncrasies didn’t get in the way of his playing every game. The issue is whether the Lakers might be smarter trading Westbrook for multiple legitimate starters and rotation players who could unlock and unleash LeBron and AD rather than costing them critical touches and shots.

There’s a strong case trading Russell Westbrook to the Indiana Pacers for Myles Turner and multiple legitimate rotation players could be the Lakers’ smartest move as it could unleash untapped greatness in LeBron and AD.

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Myles Turner Unleashes LeBron James and Anthony Davis

Myles Turner is the floor spacing, shot blocking modern center the Lakers need to make Darvin Ham’s 4-out offense and drop coverage defense work and free LeBron James and Anthony Davis to become their best versions.

If the Lakers want to have success offensively, they need a center who can stretch the floor and create spacing with his 3-point shooting and setting screens, and being a force in the paint for easy lobs, dunks, and put backs. While Turner is 26-years old, he’s made 391 out of 1,121 for 34.5% from deep in 7 years in the NBA. The Lakers’ only other stretch center, 25-year old Thomas Bryant, only made 92 out of 263 for 35.0% from deep in 5 years.

Besides being the proven stretch center the Lakers need offensively, Turner’s also the league’s top shot blocker and rim protector, averaging 2.3 blocks per game for his career and leading the league in blocks last 2 years. There’s discussion with the Lakers brain trust right now whether Turner’s defensive impact alone could even be more important for the Lakers than Irving’s shot creation and scoring. L.A.’s rim protection would be elite.

But even more important than the direct impact Turner will have on the Lakers offense and defense is the impact he will have in transforming and unleashing the games of the superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Starting Turner at center allows the Lakers to move James and Davis down a position, giving them a positional size advantage over the player they’re matching up against and giving L.A. the versatility to play both big or small.

Unlike Kyrie, who would take touches and points away from LeBron and AD, Myles Turner with his ability to stretch the court and protect the rim unlocks and unleashes superstars James and Davis to become their best.

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LeBron James Conserves Energy As Lakers’ Stretch Power Forward

One of the biggest advantages of the Lakers trading for Myles Turner is it allows Darvin Ham to move both LeBron James and Anthony Davis down a position so they have a significant size advantage at their new positions.

The Lakers commitment to starting two bigs raises the question of where LeBron James and Anthony Davis play? While both can play either forward position, the Lakers should play James at the four to conserve his energy. Chasing bigger wing scorers around picks as a three is the last thing the Lakers want LeBron James doing in the season he turns 38-years old. The time has come for LeBron to become the Lakers’ stretch four or point four.

While the Lakers don’t want LeBron wearing himself out on defense, they do want the ball in his hands a lot on offense. With Westbrook playing point last season, LeBron saw his assists fall to 6.2 per game, lowest in 10 years. This season, expect LeBron to have the ball in his hands a lot more than last season as he continues to evolve into a point four who leads the team in assists and a stretch four who’s an NBA top-ten volume 3-point shooter.

One of the major changes in the Lakers roster this season is going to be a premium on size. While the NBA is increasingly turning to small ball, the Los Angeles Lakers have clearly zigged while everybody else was zagging. While the Lakers will start games with a front court of 6′ 11″ Myles Turner at the five, 6′ 9″ LeBron James at the four, and 6′ 10″ Anthony Davis at the three, they may close games with a small ball lineup with AD at the five.

Darvin Ham’s challenge is not just to find the best position for each player personally but the best position for each player that makes the team better. For the Lakers, point four and stretch four is that position for LeBron James.

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Anthony Davis Becomes Lakers’ Leading Scorer and Wing Defender

While rim protection remains a major defensive goal, the most important defender in today’s game is probably the 6′ 7″ to 6′ 10″ 3&D wing defender who’s responsible for guarding the opposing team’s leading wing scorer.

One of the benefits of trading for Pacers center Myles Turner is it allows the Lakers to dedicate Anthony Davis to become the bigger wing stopper on defense that the Lakers and every single other NBA team desperately needs. The lack of a quality 6′ 7″ to 6′ 10″ wing defender to guard bigger scorers like Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Luka Doncic, Khris Middleton, and Paul George has been one of the Lakers major weaknesses the past 3 seasons.

Anthony Davis is one of the few two-way superstars in the NBA today. He can literally play and defend all five basketball positions on the court at all three levels, including the paint and low post, midrange, and 3-point line. With Turner and James protecting the rim, Davis can lock down the opposing team’s best bigger wing scorer and force him to give up the ball or take a contested shot against one of the best 1-on-1 defenders in the league.

Offensively, Davis will also be able to dominate smaller defenders by taking them into the post or midrange for easy turn around jumper. Playing the three, he will be able to face up and beat his defenders off the dribble. The spacing provided by surrounding Anthony Davis with two bigs and two guards who are all excellent 3-point shooters will enable Anthony Davis to have the greatest season of his career and maybe his first DPOY as a Laker.

With Turner as their stretch five and James their stretch four, the Los Angeles Lakers can play Anthony Davis at the three, where he can be the team’s leading scorer, defensive wing stopper, and face of the franchise.