Lakerholics

The Los Angeles Lakers have done a great job executing an inspired public relations campaign to convince other teams they’d prefer to bring Russell Westbrook back rather than giving up two first round picks to trade him.

With less than three weeks until training camp, the Lakers now appear to be toughening their stance on trading Russell Westbrook and getting ready to head into camp and start the regular season with him on active roster. The Lakers believe neither the Pacers or Jazz trades are deserving of a second first round draft pick and, barring those teams lowering their asking price, the Lakers would prefer to go forward with Russ on the roster.
 
Whether the Lakers will change their position on trading Westbrook remains to be seem but the team’s current roster is an unfinished product that lacks 3-point shooting and bigger wings to backup James and Davis. Frankly, anybody who watched how poorly Westbrook fit on the Lakers last season has to shudder at the thought of the Lakers wasting one of the only two guaranteed seasons left on LeBron James contract with Los Angeles.

The big question is whether the Los Angeles Lakers are committing suicide by bringing back Russell Westbrook, who refused to be coached last season and could theoretically cause total chaos and disarray in the locker room. Whether Darvin Ham can transform Westbrook into a plus contributor who plays defense and accepts a role is just one of the Lakers’ challenges. Other issues include the Lakers overall lack of 3-point shooting and wing size.

While I believe the Lakers are still just posturing and will ultimately trade Westbrook this offseason, let’s take a look at where they might be at the midseason trade deadline and next summer if they bring back Russ.

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Where Would Lakers Be At Trade Deadline If They Keep Westbrook?

Unless the Lakers are willing to sacrifice the coming season and one of the two guaranteed years they have left on LeBron James’ contract, they need to be better positioned to trade Russ at the deadline than this summer.

The litmus test is whether the Lakers will have an opportunity to trade Russ for more at the deadline than this summer. In other words, did waiting until the trade deadline enable the Lakers a get better trade for Westbrook? The key midseason dates are December 15, 2022, when most players who have been traded will be eligible to be traded again, and February 9, 2023, which is the league’s midseason trade deadline for the 2022–23 season.

The Lakers early schedule is brutal and should give them an early test of whether or not Ham could make Westbrook work. Unlike this offseason, they should be able to dump Russ at the deadline without giving up picks. The problem is the Lakers are also not likely to get much back from trading Russ at the deadline since he’s just an expiring contract who’s already been paid half or more of the annual salary for the last year of his contract.

The only good thing that could happen at the deadline is the Lakers getting an opportunity to trade for Kyrie Irving or another star who is suddenly on the outs with his team. The Lakers would only trade picks for a third star. Following up with the Pacers or Jazz to see if they would accept one pick is also probably a no-go since the Lakers would not be willing to give up a pick or picks unless it would be for a superstar that they would sign long-term.

In the end, chances are that the Lakers would not be able to significantly upgrade the roster at the trade deadline because they appear to be saving their draft picks to use to find a third superstar or replacement for LeBron.

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Where Would Lakers Be One Year From Now If They Keep Westbrook?

While running it back with Westbrook seems like a huge gamble, the Los Angeles Lakers apparently think the risk is not as great as it might seem and the benefits they get next summer could actually be worth the gamble.

So where would the Lakers be one year from now if they decide to bring back Russell Westbrook for the entire season and just allow his $47 million contract to expire at the end of the season and make no significant changes? Bringing back Westbrook is the Lakers’ stealth way of tanking as it could transform their 2023 first round pick into a lottery pick like last season when the Pels got a huge break when the Lakers’ pick was #9 last NBA draft.

Strategically, the Lakers would now have three rather than two first round draft picks in their portfolio to use to pursue a third superstar, although their 2023 first round pick could not be traded until day of the NBA draft. Having a top-10 pick in next year’s draft plus two post LeBron unprotected picks would improve the Lakers trade portfolio except that, due to players with expiring contracts and minimum salaries, they have no chips to trade.

What the Lakers will have is $35 million in projected cap space plus 13 open spots. While that’s not enough to sign Kyrie or another superstar to a max contract, there’s a chance the Lakers can make it work with multiple teams. Unfortunately, the lack of players to match salaries complicates the Lakers’ situation next summer. Aside from zero continuity, this is the problem with chasing a third superstars with cap space rather than tradeable contracts.

Bringing back Russ and allowing his contract to expire does give the Lakers multiple weapons like open cap space and multiple draft picks to acquire a third superstar like Kyrie but at the high cost of a second losing season.

The Lakers’ current roster literally screams a big Russell Westbrook trade is coming. The roster desperately needs the 3-point shooting and bigger 3&D players that only trading Westbrook and first round picks can get for them.

If the Lakers don’t trade Westbrook for two or three legitimate rotation players, they’re going to be doomed to missing the playoffs for the second straight year. The current roster is simply too small and cannot shoot. Complicating the situation, the only trading chip the Lakers have to bring back the needed 3-point shooting and depth at the forward positions is Russell Westbrook. They cannot upgrade the roster without trading him.

The Lakers and their new head coach Darvin Ham continue to discuss the possibility the team may in the end decide to bring Russell Westbrook back. Frankly, not trading Westbrook will doom the Lakers to repeat last season.

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Lakers’ Current Roster Is Unfinished Product

While Pelinka transformed the backend of the Lakers’ current roster to be younger and more athletic and versatile, the roster remains an unfinished project without needed starters and rotation players from Westbrook trade.

If the Lakers do not trade Westbrook, they will likely be stuck with something close to the above roster, which could be the worst roster any franchise has surrounded LeBron James with over his 20-year NBA career. The crazy risks of bringing back Westbrook notwithstanding, there is no way the Lakers can open this season with this roster which boasts no quality 3-point shooting or front court depth to support James and Davis.

To begin, there is no way the Lakers are going to be a playoff team if two of their five starters and five of their top ten rotation players, including LeBron’s and AD’s primary backups, are unproven minimum salary players. That’s just not how the NBA works. Besides superstars, you also need six to eight legitimate rotation players to complement your stars and fill out your starting lineup and rotation. Right now, the Lakers just have three of those.

More importantly, there is no way the Lakers go into the season with unproven Troy Brown, Jr., Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Wenyen Gabriel as backups to LeBron James and Anthony Davis at small and power forward. Unless the Lakers plan for James and Davis to play heavy minutes, they need to find better quality rotation players to back up their superstars. The lack of depth behind LeBron and AD makes this roster unworkable.

Finally, the biggest reason the Lakers cannot bring Westbrook back is this roster as currently constructed is surely the worst 3-point shooting team now in the NBA and the worst 3-point shooting team in LeBron’s career. Here are the 3-point shooting stats for the Lakers’ projected five starters and five backups. What’s frightening is there is not a single player among the Lakers best ten who is close to the league average of 37.4% on threes.

The Lakers can’t just pull the plug on trading Westbrook when the cost went up because running out an inexperienced and undersized starting lineup and rotation that can’t shoot, will be as big a disaster as last season.

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Best Three Westbrook Trades for Lakers

Let’s make one thing clear. If the Lakers pursue one of the following three trades, it means they are going to go all-in and invest their two first round draft picks to win another NBA championship before LeBron James retires.

Forget about cap space for Kyrie Irving next summer because the Lakers aren’t going to waste two unprotected first round draft picks for potential free agents like Myles Turner or Bojan Bogdanovic and not re-sign them. The key to the Lakers giving up their two first round picks is getting back players who fit Anthony Davis’ timeline and can still be factors come 2027 or even 2029 on whether the Lakers are a playoff or lottery team.

The Lakers’ goal in trading Westbrook should be to fix the deficiencies that make the current roster unworkable by finding three legitimate rotation players who are elite 3-point shooters and include at least one 3&D wing. Unsaid is the principle that the Lakers should not give up draft picks, especially unprotected ones, unless they believe the players they are getting will help them win a championship this season and after LeBron retires.

Here are three trades involving Russell Westbrook and the Lakers’ two available first round draft picks that do an excellent job adding elite 3-point shooting and front court positional size to fix the team’s current roster.

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1. Trade with Jazz for Bogdanovic, Beasley, Clarkson, & Vanderbilt

The Lakers trade Russell Westbrook, Kendrick Nunn, Wenyen Gabriel, and their 2027 and 2029 unprotected first round picks for four legitimate rotation players from Jazz including one starter and three primary backups.

Trade enables the Lakers to reduce minimum salary players from five players to just three and increase midlevel rotation players from just two to six players. Lakers also added three elite 3-point shooters in trade.

The Jazz trade is finally able to be consummated because recently traded Beasley and Vanderbilt can now be aggregated with other players. This could be the Russell Westbrook trade the Lakers choose because of depth.

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2. Trade with Pacers & Knicks for Turner, Hield, & Reddish

The Lakers trade Russell Westbrook, Wenyen Gabriel, and their 2027 and 2029 unprotected picks for three legitimate rotation players from Jazz and Knicks including two starters and one critical primary backup.

Trade enables the Lakers to reduce minimum salary players from five players to just three and increase midlevel rotation players from just two to five players. Lakers also added three elite 3-point shooters in trade.

The Pacers trade is probably a better fit for the Lakers than the Jazz trade because of how great Myles Turner would fit in Darvin Ham’s systems and how he could unleash Anthony Davis to finally take the baton from LeBron.

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3. Trade with Pacers & Jazz for Turner, Bogdanovic, & Beasley

The Lakers trade Russell Westbrook, Kendrick Nunn, Wenyen Gabriel, and 2027 and 2029 unprotected first round picks for three legitimate rotation players from the Pacers and Jazz, including two starters and one backup.

Trade enables the Lakers to reduce minimum salary players from five players to just three and increase midlevel rotation players from just two to five players. Lakers also added three elite 3-point shooters in trade.

In the end, this could be the best of all of the Westbrook trade options as it nets the Lakers the best two players available in Turner and Bogdanovic. This would be the trade Rob Pelinka should be trying to put together.

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Lakers Have 20 Days Before Training Camp to Trade Westbrook

After today’s Westbrook and Beverley lovefest, expect the world to continue to ignore the obvious reality that there is simply no way the Lakers are going to open their season with the roster they currently have.

While it’s admirable that Ham thinks he can make Russ work, keeping Westbrook also means keeping the Lakers’ current roster with no way to fix the horrible 3-point shooting or lack of reliable backups for LeBron and AD. The harsh reality is the Lakers’ current roster is doomed to a fate similar to that of last year’s undersized and poor shooting roster. Ironically, it’s even possible that last year’s roster was even better than this year’s roster.

Posturing aside, the Los Angeles Lakers have no realistic option of fielding a competitive NBA team this season unless they trade Russell Westbrook and their two available first round draft picks for multiple rotation players.

The Los Angeles Lakers continue to push the narrative they’re willing to bring back Russell Westbrook if they can’t find a trade for him that meets all of their major trade criteria and makes them legitimate title contenders.

Through various leaks, the Lakers have also said they won’t take back more salary, pay increased luxury taxes, accept contracts longer than one year, or give up more than one first round pick in the available Westbrook trades. Unless a surprising new trade opportunity arises or it turns out the Lakers were just posturing, it’s starting to look more and more possible that the Lakers might open training camp with Russell Westbrook still on the roster.

But are the Lakers seriously willing to start this pivotal season with Russell Westbrook on the active roster after the disastrous results of last season? Are they going to force rookie head coach Darvin Ham to coach Westbrook? The Lakers have done an admirable job creating their own narrative about Westbrook and how desperate the team is or is not to trade him but we’re now approaching the time when Rob Pelinka will have to decide what to do.

Let’s compare the three main criteria the Lakers have claimed will affect what they’re willing to accept in a Westbrook trade and find out what’s a limit and what’s just Los Angeles posturing for potential trade partners.

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1. No Luxury Tax Increase?

The Lakers do not want to pay more in luxury taxes than the $45 million paid last season. Considering each $1 of payroll will cost the Lakers $3 in luxury tax, the Lakers will not make a Westbrook trade that increases taxes.

Making sure the annual salaries taken back are close to the annual salaries sent out in any Westbrook trade is usually easy. In reality, this criteria significantly limits how much salary the Lakers can take back in any trade. Were it not for luxury taxes, the Lakers could take back players in a Westbrook trade with combined salaries up to 125% of Russ’ $47 million or $58 million. Of course, that $11 million could also cost $33 million in taxes.

On the flip side, the Lakers could take back as little as $38 million in salaries when trading Westbrook but that would not be acceptable to fans or critics. Bottom line, the Lakers will only take back what they send out in salaries.

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2. No Long-Term Contracts?

The Lakers currently have $35 million in possible cap space for summer 2023. They want to limit any Russell Westbrook trade to players on expiring contracts to preserve that cap space to pursue Kyrie Irving as a free agent.

Taking back only players with expiring contracts would seriously limit the players for whom the Lakers could trade Westbrook as none of the Lakers’ possible trading partners have enough expiring contracts to trade for Russ. That means the Lakers would need a three-team trade. Ironically, the two players with expiring contracts on the Pacers and Jazz happen to be the two players the Lakers covet the most: Myles Turner and Bojan Bogdanovic.

That could be the basis of a three-team trade where the Lakers give the Pacers and Jazz each a post LeBron James unprotected first round pick to trade for Myles Turner and Bojan Bogdanovic and a third player.

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3. No Trade for Both Picks?

The Lakers’ desire for cap space for next summer, Myles Turner’s and Bojan Bogdanovic’s expiring contracts, and potential value of the Lakers’ 2027 and 2029 post LeBron James first round picks hint of a trade like the one above.

While the Lakers were unwilling to give up two unprotected picks for what the Pacers and Jazz could individually offer, the opportunity to add the best player from each of the two teams on expiring contracts is worth two picks. The trade is obviously great from the Lakers’ viewpoint and probably also for the Pacers who only give up Turner. The harder sell is the Jazz who give up Bojan and have to take Russ. We know Danny loves unprotected picks.

This may be the only Westbrook trade capable of transforming the Lakers into a championship contender. That makes it worth of giving up both of the Lakers’ first round draft picks and not demanding any protection.

The Lakers have moved on from naïve dreams of trading for Kyrie Irving and fatal fantasies about running it back with Russell Westbrook. Now they need to figure out what they really want in a Russell Westbrook trade.

The Lakers’ position according to insiders is that they will not include both of their two available first round draft picks in a Westbrook trade unless the trade transforms them into a legitimate contender to win a championship. The Lakers’ current public position is none of their trade options, including the Indiana Pacers’ Myles Turner and Buddy Hield, elevate the team sufficiently to justify giving up two unprotected first round draft picks.

Per the insiders, the Lakers are not willing to take back more salary than they send out in a trade because of the luxury tax impact. Nor are they willing to take back contracts longer than LeBron James’ commitment. Finally, after trading Talen Horton-Tucker and Stanley Johnson for Patrick Beverley, the Lakers have over $30 million in potential cap space next summer, which they could keep if they only took back expiring contracts.

The good news is the Lakers currently have two excellent opportunities to trade Russell Westbrook and draft capital for at least two legitimate starters or rotation players who would help the team’s need for size and shooting. The best fit would be the Pacers’ Myles Turner and Buddy Hield, which would likely require two first round picks. The alternative could be the Jazz’ Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic, who might cost just one pick. 

Let’s take a look at both Westbrook trades and analyze each trade’s pluses and minuses and try to figure out which trade makes the most sense for the Lakers right now and what will be the major factors driving their decision.

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The Indiana Pacers’ Myles Turner and Buddy Hield

Contrary to what the Lakers would like you to believe, trading Russell Westbrook and two first round draft picks for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield would transform the Lakers into legitimate championship contenders.

The Pacers trade is clearly the Lakers’ best option to build a starting lineup and a roster that could legitimately compete for another NBA championship provided superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis could stay healthy. What makes the Pacers’ trade the Lakers’ best option is Myles Turner, who’s the perfect modern two-way center the Lakers and head coach Darvin Ham need to make the Buck’s 4-out offense and drop coverage defense work.

Turner’s a 26-year old, 6′ 11″, 250 lb center who averaged 12.9/7.1/1.0 while shooting 50.9/33.3/75.2%. He led the league in blocks the past two seasons and is a career 34.9% 3-point shooter who can effectively stretch the floor. Aside from being the perfect modern center to fill the Brook Lopez role in Ham’s system as the Lakers’ stretch five rim protector, Turner also gives Anthony Davis the perfect front court mate to dominate the next five years.

Most importantly, Turner gives the Lakers an elite rim protector on the court all 48 minutes of a game and the versatility to play two bigs with Turner and Davis or a small-ball-on-steroids lineup with AD at five like in the bubble. Right now, the Lakers’ biggest weakness is lack of a proven starting center. No disrespect to Thomas Bryant or Damian Jones but there is simply no way the Lakers are going to win a championship with either of them at the five.

Trading Westbrook and two picks for Turner and Hield would be the smartest move the Lakers could make. Despite their claims otherwise, they do know Turner and Hield make them a championship team

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The Utah Jazz’ Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic

Everything in the media about Danny Ainge coveting the Lakers’ 2027 and 2029 unprotected first round draft picks and L.A. being interested in trading Russell Westbrook for Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic is just posturing.

What this is about is the Lakers convincing the Pacers to accept Russell Westbrook plus one unprotected pick and one pick swap for Turner and Hield so the Lakers can keep an available first round pick for midseason. The Pacers want to move Buddy Hield’s two-year contract and are willing to take on Westbrook’s expiring contract for two unprotected picks. Hopefully, they will ultimately agree to accept a pick swap instead of a second pick.

What makes the Jazz and Knicks deal a logical trading partner for the Lakers is the list of legitimate rotation players like Utah’s Conley, Bogdanovic, Beasley, and Clarkson and New York’s Randle, Rose, Grimes, and Fournier. There’s also Danny Ainge’s fascination with stealing what what he envisions as two of the NBA’s most valuable and heavily coveted future draft picks: Lakers 2027 and 2029 Unprotected Post LeBron First Round Picks.

Could the Lakers put together a Westbrook trade with Utah/New York that matched or exceeded what the they could get from the Pacers for two picks or was close to what the Pacers were offering but would only cost one pick? The Lakers could put together a group of three or four elite shooters from the Jazz and Knicks but none of them are better than Buddy Hield nor plus defenders. Additionally, most of them have multiple year contracts.

Two only players whom the Lakers would be seriously interested in from the Jazz and Knicks would be Bogdanovic and Reddish, two wings that would be great fits. But those two are not better than Turner and Hield. Trading for Bogdanovic and Reddish would also cause the Lakers to switch back to James and Davis at the four and five rather than starting unproven Bryant or Jones at the five. A Davis, James, Bogdan front court could work.

In the end, the Jazz and Knick trade could lead to a Lakers trade of Kendrick Nunn for Cam Reddish but it’s nothing more than posturing by the Lakers to see if they steal Turner and Hield with just Russ and one pick and one swap.

Lakers’ fans are about to find out how serious Jeanie Buss and Rob Pelinka are about going all-in to win a championship. Get ready because we’re at that point right now. Opportunity has knocked. Will the Lakers answer?

Per Jovan Buha of the Athletic, the Lakers understand the best deal they can get for the assets they have — Russell Westbrook and two first round draft picks — would be trading with the Pacers for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield. So far, the Pacers have asked for the Lakers’ 2027 and 2029 unprotected first round picks as the price for a Westbrook for Turner and Hield trade and the Lakers have countered with the second pick being a swap or protected.

The Lakers smartly would like to keep one of their first round picks as ammunition to sweeten a possible major midseason trade at the deadline or to combine with their 2023 first round pick in a draft day deal next summer. Besides keeping one of their picks, Pelinka is probably unwilling to make a deal that increases salaries and luxury taxes and prefers to trade only for players with expiring contracts, though that probably depends on player.

To create leverage to get the Pacers to agree to the second pick being a swap or protected, the Lakers are actively seeking a Westbrook trade with the Jazz or Spurs that includes just one pick and no salary and tax increases. That’s a smart strategy as is waiting out the Pacers at this point in time. There is little difference between an unprotected pick or a pick swap to the team receiving the swap since it is by its definition completely unprotected.

In the end, Rob Pelinka and Jeanie Buss must remember their commitment to their fans as legal guardians of the Los Angeles Lakers brand is to do whatever they can possibly do within reason to win more championships. Their commitment to LeBron James is to use all the tools in their arsenal to surround him with the best possible talent to enable him to win. As is their commitment to Darvin Ham to get him the players he needs for his system.

Nothing is as important as giving the dynamic young coach the Lakers hired to recapture their championship defense and modernize their old school offense a great roster whose skillsets and persona fit what he needs to win. The Beverley trade has given Ham the aggressive point-of-attack guard he needs to fill the role Jrue Holiday played for the Bucks. Now Pelinka needs to get Ham the modern two-way center he needs to fill Brook Lopez’s role.

Trading for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield is the Lakers’ best shot to win a championship this season. Negotiate the best possible terms but walk away from the table with the deal. Not with an empty hand and an extra pick.