Lakerholics

Despite the Lakers announcing Westbrook as their starting point guard and the Pacers declaring Turner to be their starting center, there’s still a good chance both may be traded for each other before the start of the season.

The Lakers and Pacers trade is still likely to happen because it’s a trade both teams need to top off a successful offseason and stay laser focused on their respective strategies, which is win now for Los Angeles and tank for Indiana. Frankly, the Lakers don’t want to start the season with rookie coach Darvin Ham trying to rehabilitate Russell Westbrook and the Pacers have nothing to gain by starting the season with Turner and Hield still on the roster.

With the Lakers’ regular season opening October 18th and the Pacers on October 19th, the two teams have a little over three weeks to haggle their way to a mutually acceptable deal, most likely including two first rounders. This is a trade that benefits both teams and needs to be made now rather than dragging into the season. The two sides are too close for a deal this important to fail because of a pick swap or protection on a second pick.

But even if the Pacers stubbornly stand firm and demand two unprotected picks, the Lakers need to make this trade. It’s their only move right now to open up a legitimate albeit small championship window for this season. Just as importantly, trading Westbrook for Turner and Hield puts the Lakers in a stronger position to pull off a possible midseason Irving trade with the Nets, should they struggle out-of-the-gate and look to move Kyrie.

The Nets currently don’t have a starting center but have long coveted Myles Turner as the prototype modern center. Should Nets’ chaos occur, the Lakers would be better positioned to take advantage of the opportunity. Nobody knows if Kyrie is going to be available but being able to offer Turner and Hield instead of Westbrook would probably win the trade for L.A. In fact, Lakers probably have no chance at swapping Russ for Kyrie,

No matter how much they like to talk about cap space, the Lakers know there’s no way they can create the amount of cap space needed to sign a superstar in free agency, which means their only option is trade for one. Come the trade deadline, teams will know the Lakers have to trade Russ, which will reduce what they will offer. The odds of a great trade appearing aren’t worth the risk of disaster Russ and the current roster represent.

Right now, the correct strategic response by the Lakers is to step back and see how camp turns out and specifically how Russ is working. Considering what’s at stake, I hope and expect to see positive reports from the Lakers. Regardless of intent, those camp reports will affect negotiations between the two teams, especially if things turn rocky with Russ. The start of the season is miles away in the condensed landscape of camp and preseason.

Everything the Lakers have done this season has been done assuming a Westbrook trade would fix the size and shooting issues. Rob now has three weeks to pull off the Pacers’ trade and win the Lakers’ summer and future.

While it won’t make them championship contenders this year, trading Russ and one unprotected first round pick to the Spurs could help the Lakers enjoy a winning year while also setting them up for a mega next summer.

The Lakers trade strategy this offseason has evolved to not giving up both draft picks, not taking back more salary than sending out, and not taking back long-term contracts that would reduce open cap space next summer. Sticking to that strategy and refusing to include a second first round pick cost the Los Angeles Lakers a chance to trade with the Pacers for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield or trade with the Jazz for Bojan Bogdanovic.

While it lacks the big names of the Pacers or Jazz trades, the Spurs trade would only cost Lakers one pick, enable them to win more games this year, and better position them to enjoy a blockbuster offseason next summer.

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1. Spurs Provide Lakers’ Westbrook Offramp

This trade has the Los Angeles Lakers trading Russell Westbrook and their 2027 unprotected first round draft pick to the San Antonio Spurs for Jakob Poeltl, Josh Richardson, and a $25.4 million Traded Player Exception.

By adding Poeltl, who would be the starting center, and Richardson, who would be the starting shooting guard, the Lakers would immediately upgrade their starting lineup and improve their shot at a winning season. Just as importantly, dumping Westbrook would have left them with two key trading chips in the form of the $25.4 million TPE and their 2029 first round draft pick to use for a mega upgrade at the trade deadline or next summer.

The $25.4 million TPE would give the Lakers incredible financial flexibility. They could use it all on one star or split it up between two or three players. They could allow part of it to expire to avoid the luxury tax repeater status. The Lakers could use the TPE to acquire players on expiring contracts so they could create as much open cap space as possible for free agents next summer. Or sign players on two-year deals to sync with James and Davis.

Best of all, the Spurs trade provides the Los Angeles Lakers with an offramp from Russell Westbrook and the inevitable chaos that bringing him back would put the team and their new head coach through.

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2. How the Spurs Trade Helps the Lakers Win Now

While it doesn’t make the Lakers championship favorites, the Spurs trade provides the Lakers with two perfect plug-and-play players in Jakob Poeltl and Josh Richardson who dramatically upgrade their starting lineup.

Poeltl and Richardson slot perfectly into the Lakers’ rotation as starting center and shooting guard. Though a budget version of Turner and Hield, Poeltl and Richardson dramatically improve the Lakers’ starting lineup. While he’s not a stretch five and a poor free-throw shooter, Poeltl is an elite defensive center who ranked 7th in the league in blocked shots. Richardson gives the Lakers desperately needed 3-point shooting and wing size.

The $25.4 million TPE, however, is the grand prize from the trade as it will allow the Lakers to take one or more players in trade without having to send our salary in return. The TPE is good for one year from date of trade. At trade deadline, there will be teams looking to move players to avoid luxury taxes. The Lakers will have the option of only accepting players on minimum contracts to preserve cap space or multi-year contracts.

The Lakers have to trade Russell Westbrook as allowing his contract to expire make him a free agent and leave L.A. with James and Davis as their only tradeable contracts, which would leave them unable to make a trade.

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3. How the Spurs Trade Helps the Lakers Next Summer

The Lakers could enter next summer with either $35 million in open cap space to pursue free agents or a trade portfolio with two first round draft picks and $45 million in tradeable contracts for a blockbuster upgrade.

Unfortunately, the Lakers can’t have their cake and eat it too. They will have to decide which route to go before the February 9, 2023 trade deadline so they can aggregate a portfolio of expiring or tradeable player contracts. Should they decide to pursue free agents, they will then need to convert all of their contracts other than James and Davis into expiring contracts to create cap space or multi-year contracts to to match salaries in a trade.

Unspoken but surely a factor in the Lakers’ overall strategy is finding a superstar replacement for Russell Westbrook and for 237-year old LeBron James. Still at the top of the Lakers’ most coveted list is Kyrie Irving. Pursuing Irving via free agency seems like a remote chance since he will demand far more than the $ 35 million the Lakers could offer. Lakers would have a better chance of acquiring Irving via a sign-and-trade deal.

In the end, the Lakers best option for a mega makeover next summer would be to use their two picks and $45 million in tradeable long-term contracts to trade for a third superstar to take over when LeBron retires.

If we’re to believe what we’re hearing online, the Los Angeles Lakers are trying to decide between going all-in this summer to build a legitimate championship contender or holding onto assets for a mega next summer.

Realistically, what the Lakers are trying to decide is whether sacrificing a long shot chance to win a championship this season would better enable them to make a series of transformative blockbuster moves next summer. Behind the scenes, it appears some in the Lakers’ front office believe they could have a unique opportunity for a superstar reload next summer with $35 million in cap space and three first round picks available to trade.

The Lakers’ challenge is they just signed LeBron James to a 1+1 extension with the ultimate goal of his retiring in purple and gold. It’s doubtful that 37-year old James would approve of the Lakers not trading their two picks. Finally, the last straw suggesting that the Lakers will ultimately give up the two picks and trade Westbrook was the recent signing of long-time Westbrook nemesis Patrick Beverley, thus giving L.A. four point guards.

Are the Lakers crazy for considering sacrificing this season’s championship window to position themselves for a blockbuster next summer where they sign Kyrie Irving and a juggernaut roster and launch their next dynasty? Alternatively, are the alleged limits the Lakers seem to be putting on every Russell Westbrook trade just a smokescreen and positioning by L.A. to convince trading partners they aren’t really desperate to trade Russ?

Let’s check the pros and cons and rank the Lakers’ three options to resolve the Westbrook situation: trade before the start of the season, trade before the midseason deadline, and keep all season and let contract expire.

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1. Trade Westbrook Before Start of Training Camp

While trading Westbrook before the start of training camp could still happen, the Lakers’ current position is they prefer to keep him rather than give up both of their available first round picks to move him via trade.

While some in the Lakers’ front office are intrigued with the idea of just keeping Russ for the season and letting his $47 million contract expire, everything else that’s happening is screaming to trade Russell Westbrook. The current roster does not have sufficient 3-point shooting, wing size behind LeBron James and Anthony Davis, or experience at the starting center position with the unproven Thomas Bryant and Damian Jones. 

Additionally, the Lakers traded for Patrick Beverley and signed free agent Dennis Schroeder, giving them four point guards. No way L.A. goes into the season with Westbrook, Schroeder, Beverley, and Nunn all on their roster. Strategically, the Lakers have already replaced Russell Westbrook as their starting point guard, leaving Russ in the very uncomfortably position of having to come into camp fighting to start or even make the rotation,

Realistically, the Los Angeles Lakers #1 priority should be to trade Russell Westbrook and picks for two proven quality starter players, even if it costs them both of their available first round draft picks without any protection. They should try to get the Pacers or Jazz to agree to one pick plus a pick swap as having an available pick at the deadline and two picks next summer could be critical if a key player becomes available via trade.

The Lakers cannot risk a second straight disastrous season and, as Jeanie says, the Lakers never tank. Thus, Pelinka needs to trade Westbrook to the Pacers or Jazz for multiple rotation players even if it costs both picks.

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2. Trade Westbrook Before Midseason Trade Deadline

Should the Lakers pass on trading Russ before camp, they’ll get a second chance to move him midseason. The only question is whether there will be anything left to save of the season by the time L.A. decides to trade him.

Key dates are December 15th, when recently signed players can be traded, and February 9th, the midseason trade deadline. The Lakers will have played 28 total games as of December 15th and 56 games as of February 9th. That means 34% of the season will be over by December 15 when most players will be able to be traded and 68% of the season will be over by the February 9th trade deadline. Saving season goes from hard to harder.

The risks of waiting until midseason to trade Westbrook are significant. Most teams are not going to want to see what they have before making a trade, which means a trade is unlikely until a third of the season is over. Wait until the trade deadline and then two-thirds of the season is over. Deciding not to trade Westbrook before camp to possibly save one or even two draft picks at the cost of almost certainly tanking the season is dumb.

Once the Lakers commit to bringing Westbrook back, they also commit to trading him before the deadline because otherwise James and Davis will be their only tradeable contracts next summer if they let Russ’ contract expire.
Failing to trade Westbrook at the deadline would leave the Lakers with $35 million in potential cap space for free agents but no tradeable contracts other than LeBron or AD to combine with their three first round picks.

Once the Lakers committed to bring Russell Westbrook back, they also committed to trading him at the deadline for the players with multiple-year contracts that will be their trading chips for a mega trade next summer. 

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3. Keep Westbrook All Season and Let Contract Expire

Realistically, the only way the Lakers would have kept Russ for the full season would have been if new head coach Darvin Ham had figured out how to make him and the crazy roster work so they were in contention.

Once the fantasy of Russell Westbrook changing his spots and suddenly improving his shot selection and individual defense has been put to bed, there’s just no scenario where Russ finishes the year in purple and gold. Were that to happen, Russ would be an unrestricted free agent and the Lakers would have $25–35 million in cap space, three first round picks, but no tradeable players under contract to trade except for LeBron and AD.

In other words, the Lakers must trade Russell Westbrook before the trade deadline and the players traded for should be on reasonable and tradeable two-year contracts which would become expiring contracts next summer. The ideal position would be for the Lakers to have two or three players on the roster with contracts that would be expiring next summer that they could flip with their 2023 and 2029 first round draft picks for a superstar.

Bottom line, the Lakers’ strategy seems to be to trade Russ for the best package of rotation players with size and shooting as priorities. That trade must happen before training camp or before the midseason trade deadline. The Lakers need to convert Russ’ contract into multiple tradeable contracts that either end after or can be extended to end after the 2022–23 season, That would give them the best possible position to pull off a mega trade.

To be optimally positioned to pursue a third superstar or mega roster makeover next summer, the Lakers need to trade Westbrook for two or three rotation players who will become expiring contracts next summer.

Have you ever wished NBA GMs would just say what they mean? Between cryptic comments, posturing, and intentional misinformation, the Lakers have succeeded in convincing everybody what they’re not going to do. 

They‘re not going to take back more salary than they send out in a trade. They’re not going to take back multi-year contracts. They’re not going to give up two picks unless it makes them a true championship contender. What the Lakers do not tell you is what they’re going to do with respect to Russell Westbrook. Unlike the situation with Kevin Durant in Brooklyn, don’t expect the Lakers to make a formal announcement about Russ.

Let’s take quick trip to the multiverse and alternative world where NBA front office executives must answer all media and fan question directly and honestly in this secret imaginary interview of Rob Pelinka by LakerTom.

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LakerTom: “What are the Lakers going to do with Russell Westbrook and when can we expect something to happen?”

Rob Pelinka: “We’ve been trying to trade Westbrook but teams aren’t going to make their best offer until we’re close to training camp, which is when we expect to be able to consummate an acceptable deal to trade him.”

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LakerTom: “You’ve said you would not give up both available first round picks unless it made the Lakers a legitimate championship contender. With Kyrie no longer available, is there any acceptable trade that would warrant two picks?”

Rob Pelinka: “First, Kyrie was probably the only trade that could conceivably made the Lakers a legitimate championship contender. However, that doesn’t mean the Lakers won’t give up two picks to significantly improve the team. The difference is the two picks have to be used for players who fit AD’s timeline.”

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LakerTom: “The Lakers’ current roster appears to be an unfinished product that desperately needs 3-point shooting and better depth and backups behind forwards LeBron James and Anthony Davis that could only come from trading Westbrook. Are the Lakers serious about bringing back Russell Westbrook?”

Rob Pelinka: “Frankly, the last thing in the world we want to do is run it back with Westbrook. Fortunately, we’re confident we can find multiple trades that offer a better outcome than bringing back Russ. We’re just waiting for teams to get to the point where they’re ready to make their best offer.”

“We knew when we started rebuilding the roster this offseason, that the only way we were going to be able to get elite volume 3-point shooters and invaluable 3&D wings we needed was by trading Russ. Those kinds of players simply aren’t available as minimum salary players. This was all part of our original plan.”

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LakerTom: “We keep hearing rumors about the Lakers being unwilling to take back anything but expiring contracts in Westbrook trade so that they can keep the $35 million they’re projected to have in cap space next summer to pursue Kyrie. How important is cap space for next summer to chase Kyrie Irving?”

Rob Pelinka: “While we do have a goal of having as much cap space as possible to pursue free agents next summer, we would like to limit any contracts coming back to a maximum of two years so they matchup with LeBron’s and AD’s deals. Fortunately, the top two players the Lakers are targeting — Myles Turner and Bojan Bogdanovic — are both on expiring contracts so in a perfect world, we would love to be able to have as much open cap space as possible.”

“Finally, you have to remember that we are not going to trade two very valuable first round draft picks along with Westbrook for two or three legitimate starters or rotation players unless we’re able and willing to re-sign them to an extension. One of the reasons why we want to trade Westbrook this offseason is we need the starters and rotation players we can get back for him. They’re not only critical to completing this roster but also to serve if needed as trading chips at the deadline.”

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LakerTom: “What is your thought about whether a superstar big three or a superstar big two with a deeper more talented roster is the better path to another Lakers’ championship? And would the Lakers be interested in a midseason trade before the deadline that sent Turner and Hield to Brooklyn for Kyrie Irving?”

Rob Pelinka: “The general answer to your question is it depends on the superstars and how they fit. The specific answer to your question is yes, we would love to trade Turner and Hield for Kyrie Irving at the trade deadline. In fact, the Nets’ coveting of Turner is one of our reasons for wanting to trade for him now.”

The Los Angeles Lakers have done a great job executing an inspired public relations campaign to convince other teams they’d prefer to bring Russell Westbrook back rather than giving up two first round picks to trade him.

With less than three weeks until training camp, the Lakers now appear to be toughening their stance on trading Russell Westbrook and getting ready to head into camp and start the regular season with him on active roster. The Lakers believe neither the Pacers or Jazz trades are deserving of a second first round draft pick and, barring those teams lowering their asking price, the Lakers would prefer to go forward with Russ on the roster.
 
Whether the Lakers will change their position on trading Westbrook remains to be seem but the team’s current roster is an unfinished product that lacks 3-point shooting and bigger wings to backup James and Davis. Frankly, anybody who watched how poorly Westbrook fit on the Lakers last season has to shudder at the thought of the Lakers wasting one of the only two guaranteed seasons left on LeBron James contract with Los Angeles.

The big question is whether the Los Angeles Lakers are committing suicide by bringing back Russell Westbrook, who refused to be coached last season and could theoretically cause total chaos and disarray in the locker room. Whether Darvin Ham can transform Westbrook into a plus contributor who plays defense and accepts a role is just one of the Lakers’ challenges. Other issues include the Lakers overall lack of 3-point shooting and wing size.

While I believe the Lakers are still just posturing and will ultimately trade Westbrook this offseason, let’s take a look at where they might be at the midseason trade deadline and next summer if they bring back Russ.

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Where Would Lakers Be At Trade Deadline If They Keep Westbrook?

Unless the Lakers are willing to sacrifice the coming season and one of the two guaranteed years they have left on LeBron James’ contract, they need to be better positioned to trade Russ at the deadline than this summer.

The litmus test is whether the Lakers will have an opportunity to trade Russ for more at the deadline than this summer. In other words, did waiting until the trade deadline enable the Lakers a get better trade for Westbrook? The key midseason dates are December 15, 2022, when most players who have been traded will be eligible to be traded again, and February 9, 2023, which is the league’s midseason trade deadline for the 2022–23 season.

The Lakers early schedule is brutal and should give them an early test of whether or not Ham could make Westbrook work. Unlike this offseason, they should be able to dump Russ at the deadline without giving up picks. The problem is the Lakers are also not likely to get much back from trading Russ at the deadline since he’s just an expiring contract who’s already been paid half or more of the annual salary for the last year of his contract.

The only good thing that could happen at the deadline is the Lakers getting an opportunity to trade for Kyrie Irving or another star who is suddenly on the outs with his team. The Lakers would only trade picks for a third star. Following up with the Pacers or Jazz to see if they would accept one pick is also probably a no-go since the Lakers would not be willing to give up a pick or picks unless it would be for a superstar that they would sign long-term.

In the end, chances are that the Lakers would not be able to significantly upgrade the roster at the trade deadline because they appear to be saving their draft picks to use to find a third superstar or replacement for LeBron.

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Where Would Lakers Be One Year From Now If They Keep Westbrook?

While running it back with Westbrook seems like a huge gamble, the Los Angeles Lakers apparently think the risk is not as great as it might seem and the benefits they get next summer could actually be worth the gamble.

So where would the Lakers be one year from now if they decide to bring back Russell Westbrook for the entire season and just allow his $47 million contract to expire at the end of the season and make no significant changes? Bringing back Westbrook is the Lakers’ stealth way of tanking as it could transform their 2023 first round pick into a lottery pick like last season when the Pels got a huge break when the Lakers’ pick was #9 last NBA draft.

Strategically, the Lakers would now have three rather than two first round draft picks in their portfolio to use to pursue a third superstar, although their 2023 first round pick could not be traded until day of the NBA draft. Having a top-10 pick in next year’s draft plus two post LeBron unprotected picks would improve the Lakers trade portfolio except that, due to players with expiring contracts and minimum salaries, they have no chips to trade.

What the Lakers will have is $35 million in projected cap space plus 13 open spots. While that’s not enough to sign Kyrie or another superstar to a max contract, there’s a chance the Lakers can make it work with multiple teams. Unfortunately, the lack of players to match salaries complicates the Lakers’ situation next summer. Aside from zero continuity, this is the problem with chasing a third superstars with cap space rather than tradeable contracts.

Bringing back Russ and allowing his contract to expire does give the Lakers multiple weapons like open cap space and multiple draft picks to acquire a third superstar like Kyrie but at the high cost of a second losing season.