Lakerholics

If we’re to believe what we’re hearing online, the Los Angeles Lakers are trying to decide between going all-in this summer to build a legitimate championship contender or holding onto assets for a mega next summer.

Realistically, what the Lakers are trying to decide is whether sacrificing a long shot chance to win a championship this season would better enable them to make a series of transformative blockbuster moves next summer. Behind the scenes, it appears some in the Lakers’ front office believe they could have a unique opportunity for a superstar reload next summer with $35 million in cap space and three first round picks available to trade.

The Lakers’ challenge is they just signed LeBron James to a 1+1 extension with the ultimate goal of his retiring in purple and gold. It’s doubtful that 37-year old James would approve of the Lakers not trading their two picks. Finally, the last straw suggesting that the Lakers will ultimately give up the two picks and trade Westbrook was the recent signing of long-time Westbrook nemesis Patrick Beverley, thus giving L.A. four point guards.

Are the Lakers crazy for considering sacrificing this season’s championship window to position themselves for a blockbuster next summer where they sign Kyrie Irving and a juggernaut roster and launch their next dynasty? Alternatively, are the alleged limits the Lakers seem to be putting on every Russell Westbrook trade just a smokescreen and positioning by L.A. to convince trading partners they aren’t really desperate to trade Russ?

Let’s check the pros and cons and rank the Lakers’ three options to resolve the Westbrook situation: trade before the start of the season, trade before the midseason deadline, and keep all season and let contract expire.

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1. Trade Westbrook Before Start of Training Camp

While trading Westbrook before the start of training camp could still happen, the Lakers’ current position is they prefer to keep him rather than give up both of their available first round picks to move him via trade.

While some in the Lakers’ front office are intrigued with the idea of just keeping Russ for the season and letting his $47 million contract expire, everything else that’s happening is screaming to trade Russell Westbrook. The current roster does not have sufficient 3-point shooting, wing size behind LeBron James and Anthony Davis, or experience at the starting center position with the unproven Thomas Bryant and Damian Jones. 

Additionally, the Lakers traded for Patrick Beverley and signed free agent Dennis Schroeder, giving them four point guards. No way L.A. goes into the season with Westbrook, Schroeder, Beverley, and Nunn all on their roster. Strategically, the Lakers have already replaced Russell Westbrook as their starting point guard, leaving Russ in the very uncomfortably position of having to come into camp fighting to start or even make the rotation,

Realistically, the Los Angeles Lakers #1 priority should be to trade Russell Westbrook and picks for two proven quality starter players, even if it costs them both of their available first round draft picks without any protection. They should try to get the Pacers or Jazz to agree to one pick plus a pick swap as having an available pick at the deadline and two picks next summer could be critical if a key player becomes available via trade.

The Lakers cannot risk a second straight disastrous season and, as Jeanie says, the Lakers never tank. Thus, Pelinka needs to trade Westbrook to the Pacers or Jazz for multiple rotation players even if it costs both picks.

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2. Trade Westbrook Before Midseason Trade Deadline

Should the Lakers pass on trading Russ before camp, they’ll get a second chance to move him midseason. The only question is whether there will be anything left to save of the season by the time L.A. decides to trade him.

Key dates are December 15th, when recently signed players can be traded, and February 9th, the midseason trade deadline. The Lakers will have played 28 total games as of December 15th and 56 games as of February 9th. That means 34% of the season will be over by December 15 when most players will be able to be traded and 68% of the season will be over by the February 9th trade deadline. Saving season goes from hard to harder.

The risks of waiting until midseason to trade Westbrook are significant. Most teams are not going to want to see what they have before making a trade, which means a trade is unlikely until a third of the season is over. Wait until the trade deadline and then two-thirds of the season is over. Deciding not to trade Westbrook before camp to possibly save one or even two draft picks at the cost of almost certainly tanking the season is dumb.

Once the Lakers commit to bringing Westbrook back, they also commit to trading him before the deadline because otherwise James and Davis will be their only tradeable contracts next summer if they let Russ’ contract expire.
Failing to trade Westbrook at the deadline would leave the Lakers with $35 million in potential cap space for free agents but no tradeable contracts other than LeBron or AD to combine with their three first round picks.

Once the Lakers committed to bring Russell Westbrook back, they also committed to trading him at the deadline for the players with multiple-year contracts that will be their trading chips for a mega trade next summer. 

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3. Keep Westbrook All Season and Let Contract Expire

Realistically, the only way the Lakers would have kept Russ for the full season would have been if new head coach Darvin Ham had figured out how to make him and the crazy roster work so they were in contention.

Once the fantasy of Russell Westbrook changing his spots and suddenly improving his shot selection and individual defense has been put to bed, there’s just no scenario where Russ finishes the year in purple and gold. Were that to happen, Russ would be an unrestricted free agent and the Lakers would have $25–35 million in cap space, three first round picks, but no tradeable players under contract to trade except for LeBron and AD.

In other words, the Lakers must trade Russell Westbrook before the trade deadline and the players traded for should be on reasonable and tradeable two-year contracts which would become expiring contracts next summer. The ideal position would be for the Lakers to have two or three players on the roster with contracts that would be expiring next summer that they could flip with their 2023 and 2029 first round draft picks for a superstar.

Bottom line, the Lakers’ strategy seems to be to trade Russ for the best package of rotation players with size and shooting as priorities. That trade must happen before training camp or before the midseason trade deadline. The Lakers need to convert Russ’ contract into multiple tradeable contracts that either end after or can be extended to end after the 2022–23 season, That would give them the best possible position to pull off a mega trade.

To be optimally positioned to pursue a third superstar or mega roster makeover next summer, the Lakers need to trade Westbrook for two or three rotation players who will become expiring contracts next summer.

Have you ever wished NBA GMs would just say what they mean? Between cryptic comments, posturing, and intentional misinformation, the Lakers have succeeded in convincing everybody what they’re not going to do. 

They‘re not going to take back more salary than they send out in a trade. They’re not going to take back multi-year contracts. They’re not going to give up two picks unless it makes them a true championship contender. What the Lakers do not tell you is what they’re going to do with respect to Russell Westbrook. Unlike the situation with Kevin Durant in Brooklyn, don’t expect the Lakers to make a formal announcement about Russ.

Let’s take quick trip to the multiverse and alternative world where NBA front office executives must answer all media and fan question directly and honestly in this secret imaginary interview of Rob Pelinka by LakerTom.

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LakerTom: “What are the Lakers going to do with Russell Westbrook and when can we expect something to happen?”

Rob Pelinka: “We’ve been trying to trade Westbrook but teams aren’t going to make their best offer until we’re close to training camp, which is when we expect to be able to consummate an acceptable deal to trade him.”

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LakerTom: “You’ve said you would not give up both available first round picks unless it made the Lakers a legitimate championship contender. With Kyrie no longer available, is there any acceptable trade that would warrant two picks?”

Rob Pelinka: “First, Kyrie was probably the only trade that could conceivably made the Lakers a legitimate championship contender. However, that doesn’t mean the Lakers won’t give up two picks to significantly improve the team. The difference is the two picks have to be used for players who fit AD’s timeline.”

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LakerTom: “The Lakers’ current roster appears to be an unfinished product that desperately needs 3-point shooting and better depth and backups behind forwards LeBron James and Anthony Davis that could only come from trading Westbrook. Are the Lakers serious about bringing back Russell Westbrook?”

Rob Pelinka: “Frankly, the last thing in the world we want to do is run it back with Westbrook. Fortunately, we’re confident we can find multiple trades that offer a better outcome than bringing back Russ. We’re just waiting for teams to get to the point where they’re ready to make their best offer.”

“We knew when we started rebuilding the roster this offseason, that the only way we were going to be able to get elite volume 3-point shooters and invaluable 3&D wings we needed was by trading Russ. Those kinds of players simply aren’t available as minimum salary players. This was all part of our original plan.”

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LakerTom: “We keep hearing rumors about the Lakers being unwilling to take back anything but expiring contracts in Westbrook trade so that they can keep the $35 million they’re projected to have in cap space next summer to pursue Kyrie. How important is cap space for next summer to chase Kyrie Irving?”

Rob Pelinka: “While we do have a goal of having as much cap space as possible to pursue free agents next summer, we would like to limit any contracts coming back to a maximum of two years so they matchup with LeBron’s and AD’s deals. Fortunately, the top two players the Lakers are targeting — Myles Turner and Bojan Bogdanovic — are both on expiring contracts so in a perfect world, we would love to be able to have as much open cap space as possible.”

“Finally, you have to remember that we are not going to trade two very valuable first round draft picks along with Westbrook for two or three legitimate starters or rotation players unless we’re able and willing to re-sign them to an extension. One of the reasons why we want to trade Westbrook this offseason is we need the starters and rotation players we can get back for him. They’re not only critical to completing this roster but also to serve if needed as trading chips at the deadline.”

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LakerTom: “What is your thought about whether a superstar big three or a superstar big two with a deeper more talented roster is the better path to another Lakers’ championship? And would the Lakers be interested in a midseason trade before the deadline that sent Turner and Hield to Brooklyn for Kyrie Irving?”

Rob Pelinka: “The general answer to your question is it depends on the superstars and how they fit. The specific answer to your question is yes, we would love to trade Turner and Hield for Kyrie Irving at the trade deadline. In fact, the Nets’ coveting of Turner is one of our reasons for wanting to trade for him now.”

The Los Angeles Lakers have done a great job executing an inspired public relations campaign to convince other teams they’d prefer to bring Russell Westbrook back rather than giving up two first round picks to trade him.

With less than three weeks until training camp, the Lakers now appear to be toughening their stance on trading Russell Westbrook and getting ready to head into camp and start the regular season with him on active roster. The Lakers believe neither the Pacers or Jazz trades are deserving of a second first round draft pick and, barring those teams lowering their asking price, the Lakers would prefer to go forward with Russ on the roster.
 
Whether the Lakers will change their position on trading Westbrook remains to be seem but the team’s current roster is an unfinished product that lacks 3-point shooting and bigger wings to backup James and Davis. Frankly, anybody who watched how poorly Westbrook fit on the Lakers last season has to shudder at the thought of the Lakers wasting one of the only two guaranteed seasons left on LeBron James contract with Los Angeles.

The big question is whether the Los Angeles Lakers are committing suicide by bringing back Russell Westbrook, who refused to be coached last season and could theoretically cause total chaos and disarray in the locker room. Whether Darvin Ham can transform Westbrook into a plus contributor who plays defense and accepts a role is just one of the Lakers’ challenges. Other issues include the Lakers overall lack of 3-point shooting and wing size.

While I believe the Lakers are still just posturing and will ultimately trade Westbrook this offseason, let’s take a look at where they might be at the midseason trade deadline and next summer if they bring back Russ.

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Where Would Lakers Be At Trade Deadline If They Keep Westbrook?

Unless the Lakers are willing to sacrifice the coming season and one of the two guaranteed years they have left on LeBron James’ contract, they need to be better positioned to trade Russ at the deadline than this summer.

The litmus test is whether the Lakers will have an opportunity to trade Russ for more at the deadline than this summer. In other words, did waiting until the trade deadline enable the Lakers a get better trade for Westbrook? The key midseason dates are December 15, 2022, when most players who have been traded will be eligible to be traded again, and February 9, 2023, which is the league’s midseason trade deadline for the 2022–23 season.

The Lakers early schedule is brutal and should give them an early test of whether or not Ham could make Westbrook work. Unlike this offseason, they should be able to dump Russ at the deadline without giving up picks. The problem is the Lakers are also not likely to get much back from trading Russ at the deadline since he’s just an expiring contract who’s already been paid half or more of the annual salary for the last year of his contract.

The only good thing that could happen at the deadline is the Lakers getting an opportunity to trade for Kyrie Irving or another star who is suddenly on the outs with his team. The Lakers would only trade picks for a third star. Following up with the Pacers or Jazz to see if they would accept one pick is also probably a no-go since the Lakers would not be willing to give up a pick or picks unless it would be for a superstar that they would sign long-term.

In the end, chances are that the Lakers would not be able to significantly upgrade the roster at the trade deadline because they appear to be saving their draft picks to use to find a third superstar or replacement for LeBron.

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Where Would Lakers Be One Year From Now If They Keep Westbrook?

While running it back with Westbrook seems like a huge gamble, the Los Angeles Lakers apparently think the risk is not as great as it might seem and the benefits they get next summer could actually be worth the gamble.

So where would the Lakers be one year from now if they decide to bring back Russell Westbrook for the entire season and just allow his $47 million contract to expire at the end of the season and make no significant changes? Bringing back Westbrook is the Lakers’ stealth way of tanking as it could transform their 2023 first round pick into a lottery pick like last season when the Pels got a huge break when the Lakers’ pick was #9 last NBA draft.

Strategically, the Lakers would now have three rather than two first round draft picks in their portfolio to use to pursue a third superstar, although their 2023 first round pick could not be traded until day of the NBA draft. Having a top-10 pick in next year’s draft plus two post LeBron unprotected picks would improve the Lakers trade portfolio except that, due to players with expiring contracts and minimum salaries, they have no chips to trade.

What the Lakers will have is $35 million in projected cap space plus 13 open spots. While that’s not enough to sign Kyrie or another superstar to a max contract, there’s a chance the Lakers can make it work with multiple teams. Unfortunately, the lack of players to match salaries complicates the Lakers’ situation next summer. Aside from zero continuity, this is the problem with chasing a third superstars with cap space rather than tradeable contracts.

Bringing back Russ and allowing his contract to expire does give the Lakers multiple weapons like open cap space and multiple draft picks to acquire a third superstar like Kyrie but at the high cost of a second losing season.

The Lakers’ current roster literally screams a big Russell Westbrook trade is coming. The roster desperately needs the 3-point shooting and bigger 3&D players that only trading Westbrook and first round picks can get for them.

If the Lakers don’t trade Westbrook for two or three legitimate rotation players, they’re going to be doomed to missing the playoffs for the second straight year. The current roster is simply too small and cannot shoot. Complicating the situation, the only trading chip the Lakers have to bring back the needed 3-point shooting and depth at the forward positions is Russell Westbrook. They cannot upgrade the roster without trading him.

The Lakers and their new head coach Darvin Ham continue to discuss the possibility the team may in the end decide to bring Russell Westbrook back. Frankly, not trading Westbrook will doom the Lakers to repeat last season.

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Lakers’ Current Roster Is Unfinished Product

While Pelinka transformed the backend of the Lakers’ current roster to be younger and more athletic and versatile, the roster remains an unfinished project without needed starters and rotation players from Westbrook trade.

If the Lakers do not trade Westbrook, they will likely be stuck with something close to the above roster, which could be the worst roster any franchise has surrounded LeBron James with over his 20-year NBA career. The crazy risks of bringing back Westbrook notwithstanding, there is no way the Lakers can open this season with this roster which boasts no quality 3-point shooting or front court depth to support James and Davis.

To begin, there is no way the Lakers are going to be a playoff team if two of their five starters and five of their top ten rotation players, including LeBron’s and AD’s primary backups, are unproven minimum salary players. That’s just not how the NBA works. Besides superstars, you also need six to eight legitimate rotation players to complement your stars and fill out your starting lineup and rotation. Right now, the Lakers just have three of those.

More importantly, there is no way the Lakers go into the season with unproven Troy Brown, Jr., Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Wenyen Gabriel as backups to LeBron James and Anthony Davis at small and power forward. Unless the Lakers plan for James and Davis to play heavy minutes, they need to find better quality rotation players to back up their superstars. The lack of depth behind LeBron and AD makes this roster unworkable.

Finally, the biggest reason the Lakers cannot bring Westbrook back is this roster as currently constructed is surely the worst 3-point shooting team now in the NBA and the worst 3-point shooting team in LeBron’s career. Here are the 3-point shooting stats for the Lakers’ projected five starters and five backups. What’s frightening is there is not a single player among the Lakers best ten who is close to the league average of 37.4% on threes.

The Lakers can’t just pull the plug on trading Westbrook when the cost went up because running out an inexperienced and undersized starting lineup and rotation that can’t shoot, will be as big a disaster as last season.

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Best Three Westbrook Trades for Lakers

Let’s make one thing clear. If the Lakers pursue one of the following three trades, it means they are going to go all-in and invest their two first round draft picks to win another NBA championship before LeBron James retires.

Forget about cap space for Kyrie Irving next summer because the Lakers aren’t going to waste two unprotected first round draft picks for potential free agents like Myles Turner or Bojan Bogdanovic and not re-sign them. The key to the Lakers giving up their two first round picks is getting back players who fit Anthony Davis’ timeline and can still be factors come 2027 or even 2029 on whether the Lakers are a playoff or lottery team.

The Lakers’ goal in trading Westbrook should be to fix the deficiencies that make the current roster unworkable by finding three legitimate rotation players who are elite 3-point shooters and include at least one 3&D wing. Unsaid is the principle that the Lakers should not give up draft picks, especially unprotected ones, unless they believe the players they are getting will help them win a championship this season and after LeBron retires.

Here are three trades involving Russell Westbrook and the Lakers’ two available first round draft picks that do an excellent job adding elite 3-point shooting and front court positional size to fix the team’s current roster.

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1. Trade with Jazz for Bogdanovic, Beasley, Clarkson, & Vanderbilt

The Lakers trade Russell Westbrook, Kendrick Nunn, Wenyen Gabriel, and their 2027 and 2029 unprotected first round picks for four legitimate rotation players from Jazz including one starter and three primary backups.

Trade enables the Lakers to reduce minimum salary players from five players to just three and increase midlevel rotation players from just two to six players. Lakers also added three elite 3-point shooters in trade.

The Jazz trade is finally able to be consummated because recently traded Beasley and Vanderbilt can now be aggregated with other players. This could be the Russell Westbrook trade the Lakers choose because of depth.

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2. Trade with Pacers & Knicks for Turner, Hield, & Reddish

The Lakers trade Russell Westbrook, Wenyen Gabriel, and their 2027 and 2029 unprotected picks for three legitimate rotation players from Jazz and Knicks including two starters and one critical primary backup.

Trade enables the Lakers to reduce minimum salary players from five players to just three and increase midlevel rotation players from just two to five players. Lakers also added three elite 3-point shooters in trade.

The Pacers trade is probably a better fit for the Lakers than the Jazz trade because of how great Myles Turner would fit in Darvin Ham’s systems and how he could unleash Anthony Davis to finally take the baton from LeBron.

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3. Trade with Pacers & Jazz for Turner, Bogdanovic, & Beasley

The Lakers trade Russell Westbrook, Kendrick Nunn, Wenyen Gabriel, and 2027 and 2029 unprotected first round picks for three legitimate rotation players from the Pacers and Jazz, including two starters and one backup.

Trade enables the Lakers to reduce minimum salary players from five players to just three and increase midlevel rotation players from just two to five players. Lakers also added three elite 3-point shooters in trade.

In the end, this could be the best of all of the Westbrook trade options as it nets the Lakers the best two players available in Turner and Bogdanovic. This would be the trade Rob Pelinka should be trying to put together.

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Lakers Have 20 Days Before Training Camp to Trade Westbrook

After today’s Westbrook and Beverley lovefest, expect the world to continue to ignore the obvious reality that there is simply no way the Lakers are going to open their season with the roster they currently have.

While it’s admirable that Ham thinks he can make Russ work, keeping Westbrook also means keeping the Lakers’ current roster with no way to fix the horrible 3-point shooting or lack of reliable backups for LeBron and AD. The harsh reality is the Lakers’ current roster is doomed to a fate similar to that of last year’s undersized and poor shooting roster. Ironically, it’s even possible that last year’s roster was even better than this year’s roster.

Posturing aside, the Los Angeles Lakers have no realistic option of fielding a competitive NBA team this season unless they trade Russell Westbrook and their two available first round draft picks for multiple rotation players.

The Los Angeles Lakers continue to push the narrative they’re willing to bring back Russell Westbrook if they can’t find a trade for him that meets all of their major trade criteria and makes them legitimate title contenders.

Through various leaks, the Lakers have also said they won’t take back more salary, pay increased luxury taxes, accept contracts longer than one year, or give up more than one first round pick in the available Westbrook trades. Unless a surprising new trade opportunity arises or it turns out the Lakers were just posturing, it’s starting to look more and more possible that the Lakers might open training camp with Russell Westbrook still on the roster.

But are the Lakers seriously willing to start this pivotal season with Russell Westbrook on the active roster after the disastrous results of last season? Are they going to force rookie head coach Darvin Ham to coach Westbrook? The Lakers have done an admirable job creating their own narrative about Westbrook and how desperate the team is or is not to trade him but we’re now approaching the time when Rob Pelinka will have to decide what to do.

Let’s compare the three main criteria the Lakers have claimed will affect what they’re willing to accept in a Westbrook trade and find out what’s a limit and what’s just Los Angeles posturing for potential trade partners.

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1. No Luxury Tax Increase?

The Lakers do not want to pay more in luxury taxes than the $45 million paid last season. Considering each $1 of payroll will cost the Lakers $3 in luxury tax, the Lakers will not make a Westbrook trade that increases taxes.

Making sure the annual salaries taken back are close to the annual salaries sent out in any Westbrook trade is usually easy. In reality, this criteria significantly limits how much salary the Lakers can take back in any trade. Were it not for luxury taxes, the Lakers could take back players in a Westbrook trade with combined salaries up to 125% of Russ’ $47 million or $58 million. Of course, that $11 million could also cost $33 million in taxes.

On the flip side, the Lakers could take back as little as $38 million in salaries when trading Westbrook but that would not be acceptable to fans or critics. Bottom line, the Lakers will only take back what they send out in salaries.

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2. No Long-Term Contracts?

The Lakers currently have $35 million in possible cap space for summer 2023. They want to limit any Russell Westbrook trade to players on expiring contracts to preserve that cap space to pursue Kyrie Irving as a free agent.

Taking back only players with expiring contracts would seriously limit the players for whom the Lakers could trade Westbrook as none of the Lakers’ possible trading partners have enough expiring contracts to trade for Russ. That means the Lakers would need a three-team trade. Ironically, the two players with expiring contracts on the Pacers and Jazz happen to be the two players the Lakers covet the most: Myles Turner and Bojan Bogdanovic.

That could be the basis of a three-team trade where the Lakers give the Pacers and Jazz each a post LeBron James unprotected first round pick to trade for Myles Turner and Bojan Bogdanovic and a third player.

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3. No Trade for Both Picks?

The Lakers’ desire for cap space for next summer, Myles Turner’s and Bojan Bogdanovic’s expiring contracts, and potential value of the Lakers’ 2027 and 2029 post LeBron James first round picks hint of a trade like the one above.

While the Lakers were unwilling to give up two unprotected picks for what the Pacers and Jazz could individually offer, the opportunity to add the best player from each of the two teams on expiring contracts is worth two picks. The trade is obviously great from the Lakers’ viewpoint and probably also for the Pacers who only give up Turner. The harder sell is the Jazz who give up Bojan and have to take Russ. We know Danny loves unprotected picks.

This may be the only Westbrook trade capable of transforming the Lakers into a championship contender. That makes it worth of giving up both of the Lakers’ first round draft picks and not demanding any protection.