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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreL.A.’s season has unfortunately come down to whether 38-year old LeBron James can don his Superman’s cape one more time and put the struggling 13–17 Lakers on his wide shoulders and carry them until AD gets back?
Frankly, that’s not only an unfair burden to put on LeBron James, who’s in the middle of an epic battle we’re all witnessing with Father Time, but also probably the Lakers only realistic chance of salvaging this doomed season.
The front office is already guilty of handicapping the team with a roster desperately in need of more size, shooting, and defense to win consistently. Unsure of the seriousness of Davis’ injury, the Lakers seem ready to punt.Putting the onus on their 38-year old superstar seems patently unfair, especially after LeBron voluntarily signed an 1+1 extension rather than use that as leverage to force the Lakers to trade Westbrook and their picks.
Now AD’s injury has seemingly given Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office a chance to throw in the towel and sacrifice this season despite Anthony Davis playing like the MVP and LeBron fighting off Father Time.Davis’ untimely injury has probably derailed any hopes of the Lakers going all-in to win a championship this season. Unless LeBron pulls off a miracle, it’s doubtful the Lakers will trade Westbrook and the picks to improve team.
What Qualifies As a Miracle from LeBron and Lakers?
So what would qualify as a miracle? What would give the Lakers’ front office enough confidence to go all-in and trade Westbrook and their two first round picks so LeBron and AD could possibly win #18 this season?
The answer is LeBron James and the Lakers winning at a rate that convinces the front office the season can still be salvaged and that there was still a chance they could beat the Celtics in the race to win #18.
But the only way that’s going to happen is if LeBron James pimp slaps Father Time and the rest of the NBA and goes on a memorable run to transform a broken roster into a team that wins more than looses.The Lakers ’remaining 52 regular season games can be broken down into two groups: the 26 games to be played before the February 9 trade deadline and 26 games to be played after the February 9 trade deadline has passed.
The Lakers need a miracle parlay to finish top-six. They must first win 15 of 26 games before deadline to get to 28–28 and convince the Lakers to trade Russ and picks. Then they need to win 20 of the 26 games to finish 48–34.It will be a challenge but it’s not too late for the Lakers to convince the front office to trade Russ and the picks. Nor is it too late for the Lakers to get a healthy AD back and make a trade to transform them into a contenders.
Can Lakers Mathematically Salvage Season?
How realistic are the chances of LeBron to rally the Lakers without AD and win 15 of the 26 games before the trade deadline? And if they accomplish that, what are their chances of winning 20 of 26 to close out the season?
Let’s take a look first at the 26 games the Lakers have to play before the trade deadline and see if there is a pathway that where LeBron could lead them to win 15 of those games and post a 28–28 record by the deadline.
The Lakers should be even or favored in 16 and underdogs in only 10 of 26. With luck, AD could be back before deadline. Bottom line, Lakers should have a good chance to win 15 of 26 and post a 28–28 record by the deadline.
Even if they get AD back, reach .500 before the deadline, and swap Russ and picks for rotation players, the Lakers face a near impossible challenge to win 20 of 26 to go from a 28–28 Play-In team to a 48–34 Playoff team.
To win the #6 seed in the Western Conference and avoid the Play-In Tournament, the Lakers will need to win 20 of the 26 games after the trade deadline to finish the regular season with a 48–34 win-loss record.
For the Lakers to be talking about throwing in the towel 30 games into a season where Anthony Davis was the best player in the league and LeBron James still dominant seems like a contradiction in logic and reality.
First of all, the Lakers received needed reassurance LeBron James and Anthony Davis could lead them to another championship, which really had become a question of concern due to injuries and losses the last two years.
Second, the West is a mess and there are no surefire championship teams, which is another reason why the Lakers need to keep their options open. Finally, there’s the Pelicans’ pick swap and Celtics shot at #18 to consider.In the end, there is a pathway for the Lakers to become a .500 team before the trade deadline and even to finish the season with a strong closing run that cinches the #6 seed in the West with a 48–34 win-loss record.
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Not sure if this a ‘prediction’ post, a ‘yeah there is a shred of hope’ post or a ‘we still need to make the super trade that will reverse the mistakes of the last 3 years!’ post. It seems like a bit of all 3, I guess?
Anyhow, let’s start with your own bullet points.
What Qualifies As a Miracle from LeBron and Lakers?
That has come and gone. A miracle would have been a roster that wasn’t going to hinge on a perfect trade for Westbrook or any other player. A miracle would have been AD and LBJ playing in all 82 games. A miracle would have been Nunn looking like the best version of himself and so on. The miracle came and went a long time ago. Now a miracle, for me at least, will be to just compete hard in all the remaining games. That means no more concession losses like the one we just saw in Phoenix. That means AD only misses a month or so. Since none of those things seem likely I would suggest moving on from hoping for a miracle.
Can Lakers Mathematically Salvage Season?
I like how you broke the season down into two chunks (26 before 2/9 and the 26 after). Handy it worked out like that. You didn’t really break down or explore what led you to the 16-10 mark you think the Lakers can achieve but I assume you didn’t just throw out an arbitrary number. I’m not going to predict what games will be wins and losses, I will predict that LeBron is going to miss at least 10 more games.
Since becoming a Laker The King has sat more than at any other stop in his storied career eclipsing the 60 game mark once. That was in the COVID shortened season. Injuries have largely affected his availability and those started 3 Christmas games ago vs. Golden State when he injured his groin. He played 55 games that season.
The following season he did play in 67 (out of the most possible for playoff/playin teams which was 75, 63 if you didn’t make the Bubble cut) and helped win a title; however, all of that came under unprecedented circumstances that won’t ever be repeated. The well-documented three month break and playoffs with no travel.
With the short turnaround the next season and a shorter, more compact season of 72 games LeBron played in only 45 games and was largely a non-factor in the playoffs in which the Lakers were knocked out in the first round. That gave LeBron an entire summer to heal, rehab and train.
Now, here we are and LeBron has missed 8 out of the 30 games played, already. 26% of potential games to play he has missed for a variety of reasons (usually some form of load management on that groin injury). With 52 remaining games we can equate that like so: take the 26% and compare it to the full 82 (in theory LeBron misses 21 total games if it stays at 26%) which would mean we’re due for at least another 13 games he doesn’t suit up for.
That means in our theoretical season (and this is all theoretical since ain’t nobody on the blog can see the future) we’re only going to lose games LeBron doesn’t play in except for 3. LeBron-led teams will, in essence, go 36-3 (accounting for the potential 13 games missed).
This doesn’t seem to take into account the three 5 game road trips that await us or the 6 back-to-back games (and we can probably just pencil LeBron in as ‘out’ on the backend of most of those) still left on the schedule. The last 26 games feature but one back-to-back and one 5 game road trip. I kind of assume you factored that in to your calculus, to some degree.
None of this is to say it’s not possible. It’s all possible, just incredibly highly unlikely. One might dare to say absurd in it’s hope. I don’t see the Lakers only losing 6 games to close the season out. I don’t see LeBron only missing 13 more games, although that’s got the highest degree of probability associated with it. More than anything I don’t see AD getting back in a month or less and I certainly don’t see him not getting hurt again.
The question the front office should be asking is what can they get for AD, let Russ and his deal expire, and try to be as competitive as possible next season. That’s not pulling the plug on this season, they did that this last summer. They did that when Rob wasn’t allowed (or whatever) to make a trade, when Rob built a roster with no shooters or size to speak of and hoped that the Laker Cabal would let him actually do his job.
At any rate, I applaud your hope. I don’t share it but it’s nice to see you fighting against the tide, screaming into the wind and hoping against hope that something breaks our way. I’m not sure when or how we angered the Basketball Gods but it has been done. The Lakers would do well to start looking for atonement. We may just be watching the end of a great career in the midst of a large amount of losing. Not everyone goes out like Kareem. Few do, in reality.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreThe sudden news Anthony Davis will miss at least a month with his latest injury may finally force Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office to make a life or death decision about the team’s prospects of winning this season.
While Davis’ injury was not season or career ending, it throws a monkey wrench into the Lakers’ plans to wait two to four weeks before deciding whether to trade Russell Westbrook and their two first round picks.
The Lakers desperately needed to trade for more size and shooting before Davis’ injury. Now with him out for a month, the Lakers could be forced to move now and finding a starting center has suddenly become a priority.It’s hard to be optimistic when bad luck happen but there are too many promising signs, including Davis’ MVP caliber play and James’ continued dominance, for Rob Pelinka and the Lakers to give up on this season.
The front office has been rightfully reluctant to trade their two available first round draft picks or to give up the standard protections but they need to rethink their trade strategies now or this season is dead and gone.With AD likely to miss a month to a month and a half or around a fourth of the season, the Lakers have no more time to waste looking for a miracle trade to suddenly appear that gifts them with a third or fourth superstar.
Now reality has arrived and they have no viable option other than to go all-in to save a season where Anthony Davis and LeBron James have shown they still are the best superstar duo in the world. They just need help.With a heathy AD and LeBron, this team has championship potential. The Lakers must go all-in and trade their two unprotected picks to upgrade the roster to survive Anthony Davis’ injury and win their 18th championship.
Why Lakers Need to Go All-In to Win Right Now
The Lakers no longer have the luxury of waiting. They need a major influx of size, shooting, and defense now or this season is lost like the last two. Going ‘All-In’ means trading anyone but LeBron and AD and doing it now.
The big win against the Nuggets with just 17 minutes of a hobbled Davis is far more likely going to be the outlier rather than the rule going forward and the last thing the Lakers want is to wear out 37-year old LeBron James.
Early in the year, the front office questioned whether a healthy James and Davis was still the slam dunk it was in the bubble. Nobody was asking that question after the Lakers dominated the Bucks. There is no more doubt.Knowing the Lakers though, the question likely morphed to ‘could they get by and still create a contender by trading just one of the picks?’ That’s the problem when you’re always trying to have your cake and eat it too.
In a way, the Davis injury could end up being a blessing for the Lakers much like the Covid break was when they won the Bubble Championship. Most importantly, it forces the Lakers to trade now rather than waiting.Imagine a month of Bryant and a 38-year old James manning center and trying to win the uphill battle for the boards and points in the paint, the only way the Lakers have compensated for their poor 3-point shooting.
The Lakers will be lucky to have a third of the season left by the time Anthony Davis is back on the court. They cannot afford to be in 12th in the West at that point in time. They need major help right now to survive.Know that James and Davis can play championship basketball, the Lakers must move immediately and decisively to add size, shooting, and defense to help survive AD’s injury and win their 18th NBA championship.
Why Lakers Need to Trade for Starting Center
One of the Lakers greatest needs before Davis’ injury was for a backup center who could stretch the floor and protect the rim when Anthony Davis was on the bench and provide insurance in the event AD was injured.
Frankly, Davis’ injury should not have been a surprise to the Lakers and if their trade strategies before did not properly reflect the importance of having a starting quality backup for AD, then they certainly do right now.
Frankly, having a great backup for both James and Davis should be an essential goal of whatever roster makeover they new engage in. It’s the smart and savvy move for the Lakers to make. That’s now totally clear.What’s interesting is there are three trade possibilities that immediately jump out for the Lakers with Anthony Davis injured. Those three teams are the Indian Pacers, the Washington Wizards, and the San Antonio Spurs.
Those teams should expect an call from Rob Pelinka. The Lakers need a trade or trades that include a quality starting center like Myles Turner, Kristaps Porzingis, or Jakob Poeltl to hold down the fort until AD returns.Ideally, that center will give the Lakers the versatility to go jumbo big with him and AD starting together or small-ball-on-steroids with AD and Bron as well as providing insurance in the event that Anthony Davis is injured.
While that may not make sense in the salary dedicated to a single position, it could be the smartest move the Lakers could make in the long term. Optimizing Anthony Davis is the key to the future for the Lakers.The Lakers need to rethink their trade priorities and make sure to include a starting quality center as part of what they need back in any series of trades they decide to make to survive until AD returns and compete to win.
Silver Linings for Lakers in Anthony Davis’ Injury
While the sudden news Anthony Davis will miss at least a month due to his latest foot injury cast a dark cloud over a third straight Lakers’ season, there are some silver linings for the Lakers from AD’s injury.
First and foremost, the injury is not a season or career ending injury. In fact, before the injury, Anthony Davis was playing like the best player in the entire NBA, which is something the Lakers’ need to remember and value.
Second, the time that Davis gets while recovering from the foot injury could result in his being fresher and having more energy and stamina in the playoffs like he did after the Covid break in the bubble championship.Third, the Davis injury should finally force the indecisive Lakers’ front office to finally act rather than wasting time hoping for some sudden superstar to demand to be traded to the Lakers. No more time to wait.
Finally, and this might be the most important, the Davis injury should refocus the front office on looking for a starting quality center to backup Anthony and enable the Lakers to go jumbo big with two 7-footers.The Lakers have played 28 of the 82 games in the regular season, which is just over one third of the season. Davis is likely to miss between a month and a month and a half. That will take him well past the half way mark.
The Lakers need to survive the next 17 to 23 games without Anthony Davis, which means Rob Pelinka is going to have to move fast and decisively if the Lakers want any chance to keep this season and hopes for #18 alive.Unfortunately, acting quickly and decisively has not been one of Pelinka’s strengths since assuming control of the Los Angeles Lakers’ front office. Let’s hope the direness of the Lakers current situation changes that.
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The trade that might be interesting and possible could be with the Tommy Shephard and the Washington Wizards for Kuzma and Porzingis. That’s the kind of trade that would be great until AD returns and offers great matchup versatility with the ability to go double bigs or super small.
Comes down to taking off the protections on at least one of the picks to get any team interested. Hard to throw away the season and wearing out LeBron to stay alive doesn’t seem like a viable option. Lakers need to make a trade and it needs to include Russ. There’s no other way at this point.
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Trading for Kuzma and Porzingis is the one that intrigues me the most. That is a no brainer.
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It’s a trade that would be great now and after AD returned. Solves a lot of our needs and we would still have Beverley and Nunn to trade but no pick to go with it but there might be contracts worth taking back to save some team money. I like the Kuzma and Porzingis trade. And Rob and Tommy know each other. Tommy would be the first person I called if I were Rob.
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I doubt that trade as much as I would like it too, will happen. The only reason Kuzma is on the market is because he said is opting out and wants a bigger market. He’s not coming back. Porzingas also has an option but it’s doubtful that he will come close to 37 mil. He’s been better but not that much better. I doubt they extended Beal to blow it up and completely rebuild.
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I agree it’s a long shot. But if there’s a trade to be made, this might be it. It gets them something for Kuza who’s gone and out of Kristap’s contract for two possible top-5 picks. Of course, Lakers won’t offer that but it would be worth it for them.
I don’t have any confidence Pelinka will do anything unless something falls into his lap. Considering AD’s injury, calling Tommy Shephard should be the first thing Rob does. In the end, unless the Lakers make at least one of the picks unprotected, they won’t find a deal to keep them afloat while AD recovers.
It should not have been a major surprise that we need a starter quality backup for AD. It’s why Turner always made sense. Anyway, Rob and Jeanie will spin this as a reason to stand pat. Can’t wait to see
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Except for those times when Porzy and AD are both on the shelf being 14′ of useless.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreThe Los Angeles Lakers are expected to trade Patrick Beverley, Kendrick Nunn, and Damian Jones plus one of their two available first round draft picks to upgrade their roster sometime in the next two to four weeks.
Beverley, Nunn, and Jones have all had disappointing seasons so far for the Lakers. Together, they’re averaging 12.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game combined. Their only value is their expiring contracts.
While Nunn and Jones are no longer in the Lakers’ rotation, Patrick Beverley remains a starter despite what the advanced stats and eye test are saying. The Lakers are hoping he’ll suddenly start hitting his shots.How successful the Lakers are in trading Beverley’s and Nunn’s expiring contracts will depend heavily on whether or not L.A. is willing to offer prospective trading partners a protected or unprotected first round pick.
Frankly, unless the Lakers are willing to give up an unprotected pick, it’s doubtful they would be able to to make a trade that would have a major impact. If they want an impact trade, the pick has to be unprotected.The next issue the Lakers have to address is making sure what they get back in any trade justifies giving up an unprotected pick? They need to trade for players who are keepers who fit the Lakers’ long-term plans.
Los Angeles needs to trade for players who are going to help them win for more than just this season. Trading for a player on an expiring contract can only work if the Lakers are certain they can re-sign and keep the player.Strategically, the Lakers’ goals in trading is to get back size, shooting, and defense in players who’re better fits that Beverley and Nunn. The Lakers need to trade surplus small guards and for bigger guards or wings or bigs.
Ideally, the Lakers want to upgrade their roster and create another open roster spot so expect a 3 for 2 trade. Also expect the two players coming back to include a more costly impact player and a cheaper young prospect.The goal behind making a non-Westbrook trade now is to give the current roster a needed boost in size, shooting, and defense and buy more time to consider whether or not to trade Russell Westbrook or go for the cap space.
The Lakers are still hoping that the Chicago Bulls or Toronto Raptors will continue to struggle and ultimately decide to become sellers or other opportunities will arise as the February 9th trade deadline approaches.In the meantime, the Lakers need to pick up their winning pace and climb up the Western Conference standings. Here are five non-Westbrook trades the Lakers could pull off with one unprotected first round draft pick.
1. Bojan Bogdanovic and Saddiq Bey Trade
Bojan Bogdanovic, SF, 33 years old, 6′ 7″ 226 lbs
21.1/3.6/2.4 on 14.0/6.0/5.1 shots for 49.9%/42.5%/89.5%Saddiq Bey, SF, 23 years old, 6′ 8″ 215 lbs
14.4/4.1/1.6 on 11.4/5.4/4.1 shots for 40.3%/30.1%/85.7%Adds 35.5 points, 7.7 rebound, and 4.0 assists
Subtracts 12.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assistsPG: Reaves, Westbrook, Schröder
SG: Walker IV, Christie, Open
SF: BOGDANOVIC, BEY, Brown, Jr
PF: James, Gabriel, Toscano-Anderson
CE: Davis, Bryant, Open
2. Kelly Oubre, Jr. and P.J. Washington Trade
Kelly Oubre, Jr., SG, 27 years old, 6′ 6″ 203 lbs
20.9/5.4/1.2 on 18.2/7.6/4.1 shots for 42.7%/32.1%/71.4%P.J. Washington, PF, 24 years old, 6′ 7″ 230 lbs
15.0/4.7/2.4 on 13.7/5.6/2.5 shots for 41.1%/31.8%/78.3%Adds 35.9 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 3.6 assists
Subtracts 12.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assistsPG: Reaves, Westbrook, Schröder
SG: Walker IV, Christie, Open
SF: OUBRE, JR, Brown, Jr, Open
PF: James, WASHINGTON, Toscano-Anderson
CE: Davis, Bryant, Gabriel
3. Josh Richardson and Jakob Poeltl Trade
Josh Richardson, SG, 29 years old, 6′ 6″ 200 lbs
10.7/2.4/2.9 on 9.0/5.0/1.6 shots for 41.3%/36.8%/85.3%Jakob Poeltl, CE, 27 years old, 7′ 1″ 260 lbs
12.9/9.9/3.5 on 8.9/0.0/2.8 shots for 64.0%/0.0%/51.8%Adds 23.6 points, 12.3 rebounds, 6.1 assists
Subtracts 12.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assistsPG: Reaves, Westbrook, Schröder
SG: RICHARDSON, Walker IV, Christie,
SF: Brown, Jr, Toscano-Anderson, Open
PF: James, Gabriel, Open
CE: Davis, POELTL, Bryant
4. Kelly Olynyk and Jarred Vanderbilt Trade
Kelly Olynyk, CE, 31 years old, 6′ 11″ 240 lbs
13.0/5.1/3.3 on 8.2/3.5/3.3 shots for 53.4%/43.9%/84.2%Jarred Vanderbilt, PF, 23 years old, 6′ 9″ 214 lbs
8.6/8.2/2.8 on 6.0/1.0/1.6 shots for 59.2%/40.0%/67.4%Adds 21.6 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 6.1 assists
Subtracts 12.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assistsPG: Reaves, Westbrook, Schröder
SG: Walker IV, Christie, Open
SF: Brown, Jr, Toscano-Anderson
PF: James, VANDERBILT, Gabriel
CE: Davis, OLYNYK, Bryant
5. Gary Trent, Jr. and Otto Porter, Jr. Trade
Gary Trent, Jr., SG, 23 years old, 6′ 5″ 209 lbs
16.9/2.0/1.4 on 13.8/6.8/3.6 shots for 43.0%/33.5%/77.8%Otto Porter, Jr., SF, 29 years old, 6′ 8″ 198lbs
5.5/2.4/1.0 on 3.8/2.1/1.0 shots for 50.0%/35.3%/100.0%Adds 22.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists
Subtracts 12.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assistsPG: Reaves, Westbrook, Schröder
SG: TRENT, JR, Walker IV, Christie,
SF: Brown, Jr, Toscano-Anderson
PF: James, PORTER, JR, Gabriel
CE: Davis, Bryant, Open liked this
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Five Lakers non-Westbrook trades with unprotected pick.
1. Bojan Bogdanovic & Saddiq Bey
2. Kelly Oubre, Jr. & P.J. Washington
3. Josh Richardson & Jakob Poeltl
4. Kelly Olynyk & Jarred Vanderbilt
5. Gary Trent, Jr. & Otto Porter, Jr.https://t.co/qi25KVlVXe— LakerTom (@LakerTom) December 17, 2022
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreWhether a byproduct of front office dysfunction or a carefully crafted trade position, the Los Angeles Lakers have let it be known that they are unlikely to trade Russell Westbrook or both of their two available first round picks.
With Westbrook playing better off the bench, the Lakers are apparently now prepared to keep him and allow his $47 million contract to expire, which theoretically could generate up to $35 million in cap space for L.A.
The Lakers are still willing to trade Patrick Beverley, Kendrick Nunn, Damian Jones, and Juan Toscano-Anderson, all of whom have not played as well as expected. Together their combined salaries total $22.4 million.The Lakers’ latest grand plan is for the team to start playing up to potential. Since the 2–10 start, they’ve gone 9–6 and are 12th in the West at 11–16. Make free throws and they would have gone 11–4 and would now be 13–14.
Starting tonight against the Denver Nuggets, the Lakers need to come out and start putting everything together. They have a formula to win despite their lack of shooting by dominating free throws and points in the paint.Besides Darwin Ham continuing to fine tune his starting and closing lineups, the Lakers will also be looking to get more help via a Beverley, Nunn, filler, and pick trade sometime over the next two to four weeks.
Once that trade is made, look for the Lakers to make one final review of the Westbrook trade situation as they approach the February 9 Trade Deadline to see if there were any newer and better opportunities to trade Russ.What’s next for the Lakers? Here are five steps they need to take in order between now and the February 9 Trade Deadline to keep their hopes of legitimately competing for the 2022–23 NBA championship alive and well.
1. Bench Beverley and Schroder
Patrick Beverley and Dennis Schroder played together for 123 minutes in 8 games this season with an offensive rating of 105.8, defensive rating of 113.7, and net rating of -7.9. Paired up, they’ve been outscored by 63 points.
The time has come for Darvin Ham to remove both Beverley and Schroder from the starting lineup. Their inability to effectively shoot or defend the three combined with their lack of size is a bad fit to open or close games.
The Lakers are entering a critical phase in a final push to save the season. It’s time for Darvin Ham to bench Patrick Beverley and Dennis Schroder and start his best five players not named Russ to give the Lakers a shot.
2. Start Reaves and Brown, Jr.
Darvin Ham needs to start Austin Reaves and Troy Brown, Jr. alongside LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Lonnie Walker IV. That would give the Lakers a starting lineup with better size, outside shooting, and defense.
The five-man lineup of Reaves, Walker, Brown, James, and Davis has surprisingly only played a total of 4 minutes in 3 games this season, posting a 157.1 offensive rating, 70.0 defensive rating, and +87.1 net rating.
The Lakers have struggled all season with slow starts to games and second halves and much of that is the mix of payers Ham has started and closed games. Everybody on this lineup has size, can shoot, and can defend.Until the Lakers trade to get some help, it’s up to Darvin Ham to make adjustments to have the Lakers playing better. Replacing Beverley and Schroder with Reaves and Brown, Jr. is a move Ham needs to make now.
3. Bench Russ to Close Games
The next step in season-long transformation of Russell Westbrook from superstar to 6MOY is his removal from many if not all closing situations. Even if he’s playing well, Russ is simply too dangerous to close games.
Used like Ham has been using him, Russ is the ultimate minutes eater and stat producer. He constantly makes great plays few in the league can make. He’s especially valuable in the middle of games and during long seasons.
But coming down the stretch of games or in the playoffs, Russ’ horrible shot selection, tendency to turn the ball over, and inability to shoot become too chaotic and dangerous to tolerate as part of the standard closing team.Darvin Ham has to look at the matchups, how Westbrook has been playing, where we are in the game, and limit his participation to close games and focus his effort at the middle of halves when Russ can dominate.
4. Trade Beverley and Nunn
The Lakers only have player contracts to make two trades: a Beverley and Nunn trade for a player or players earning around $20 million per year and a Westbrook trade for player or player earning around $47 million per year.
The expectation is the Lakers will make the smaller Beverly and Nunn trade in the next two to four weeks. The trade will likely include one of their draft picks and would help even if it were the only trade they make. Lakers’ targets include Bojan Bogdanovic, O.G. Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma, Eric Gordon, Jae Crowder, Cam Reddish, DeMar DeRozan and Evan Fournier. Issue will be teams demanding unprotected pick and Lakers resisting.
The goal of doing the small trade would be to give the Lakers some help so they can stay in contention while waiting to deadline to see if any new trade opportunities arise or terms on possible deals get more favorable.
5. Trade or Keep Westbrook
The Lakers are still hoping a team like the Chicago Bulls or the Toronto Raptors decides to rebuild and become sellers and move valuable players who no longer fit their new timeline. That’s when they hope to move Russ.
But once the team approaches the February 9 trade deadline, the Lakers will have to make a decision to trade or keep Russell Westbrook. How the team is doing will obviously have a major impact on the Laker’ decision.
Trading Westbrook is really the Lakers only way to upgrade the roster so if they’re still in contention, they may trade Russ and maybe save a pick. If not, they may decide to keep him and let his $47 million contract expire.By February 9th, the price teams may be demanding to take Russ in trade will likely decrease to just one rather than two picks. The chances then increase dramatically that the Lakers will ultimate trade Westbrook.
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What’s Next for Los Angeles Lakers?
Five Steps To Keep the Season Alive1. Bench Beverley and Schroder
2. Start Reaves and Brown, Jr.
3. Bench Russ to Close Games
4. Trade Beverley and Nunn
5. Trade or Keep Westbrookhttps://t.co/pbND2taeCe— LakerTom (@LakerTom) December 16, 2022
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Read MoreThe Lakers trade expiring contracts and unprotected first round picks to the Detroit Pistons for Bojan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey, and Nerlens Noel and to the Utah Jazz for Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, and Kelly Olynyk.
The two Lakers’ trades transforms the Lakers’ roster, sending out seven players on expiring contracts and bringing back six rotation players, all of whom will still be under contract and eligible to be traded next summer.
With over $85 million in tradeable contract and their 2023 first round pick, the Lakers should be well positioned to pull off a major blockbuster trade next summer should a superstar become available who to replace LeBron.The Lakers’ trade goals are to find a starting small forward who can get his own shot and shoot the three, a starting point guard who takes care of the ball and shoots the three, and size, depth, and shooting for the bench.
Most importantly, the Lakers needed to commit to tradeable players on two or three year reasonable deals so they will have the necessary trading chips if a unique opportunity comes up to add a superstar to replace LeBron.Building a roster that can compete a championship this season while also positioning the Lakers for an $85 million portfolio of tradeable contracts that would let them to make even more aggressive moves down the road.
1. The Pistons Trade
The centerpiece of the Pistons trade is small forward Bojan Bogdanovic, who would become the Lakers’ starting small forward and third scoring option, and backup center Nerlens Noel and backup wing Saddiq Bey.
Bogdanovic gives the Lakers a third elite scorer and 3-point shooter who averages over 20 points per game while shooting well over 40% from deep. Bojan’s size and shooting is exactly what the Lakers need at small forward.
Nerlens Noel gives the Lakers the shot blocking rim protector that they desperately need when Davis is on the bench. Last year with the Knicks, Nerlens averaged 1.2 blocks and 1.2 steals in just 22 minutes per game.Finally, Saddiq Bey gives the Lakers a promising young 3&D wing who is the perfect backup for Bogdanovic. Bey is a 23-year old, 6′ 7″, 215 lb small forward who has a great stroke and can defend his position with verve.
2. The Jazz Trade
The centerpiece of the Jazz trade is veteran point guard Mike Conley, who would become the Lakers starting point guard. Mike is a career 38.2% 3-point shooter who’s averaging 38.9% this season on 5.0 threes per game.
Conley’s real strength is his ability to run an efficient offense, something that’s been greatly missed on the Lakers this season. Conley averages 7.8 assists per game and only 1.5 turnovers per game or 5.2 A/TO ratio.
While Mike is 35-years old, his game is still strong and the Jazz struggled when he was out with injury. The Lakers have been trying to find a floor general to take the load off LeBron for three years. Conley’s the answer.Add in Jordan Clarkson to replace Russell Westbrook as the Lakers’ 6th man and Kelly Olynyk to be the backup for LeBron James at power forward and Anthony Davis at center when the team needs more outside shooting.
3. The New Roster
The Lakers had 14 active players before these two trades. They swap six players and a pick for three players from the Pistons and one player and a pick for three players from the Jazz. That leaves them with 13 players.
The addition of Conley and Bogdanovic transforms the Lakers’ starting lineup by giving them an elite point guard to run the offense in Conley and an elite wing scorer to supplement James and Davis in Bogdanovic.
The addition of four legitimate rotation players in Clarkson, Bey, Olynyk, and Noel represents a needed major upgrade in talent and size for the Lakers’ bench. Los Angeles should have a great bench going forward.The Lakers new roster has a dynamically improved starting lineup and much deeper, bigger, and more talented set of backups off the bench. The Lakers could have the best 10-man rotation in the league after these trades.
4. Next Summer Salary Cap
One of the goals of the Lakers’ front office for next summer is to build a portfolio of tradeable contracts, which means trading for players who have two or three years left on their contracts rather than expiring contracts.
The Lakers will have over $85 million in the six tradeable contracts that they acquired via the Pistons and Jazz trades. Conley’s only guaranteed $14.3 million and Olynyk only $3.0 million of their salaries for 2023–24.
The Lakers will also get either their 2023 first round draft pick or the New Orleans Pelicans 2023 first round draft pick as they have a pick swap as part of the original deal when the Lakers traded Pelicans for Anthony Davis.Unlike the last two offseasons when they did not have legitimate rotation players on tradeable contracts, the Lakers will head into next summer with their deepest roster in three years and a portfolio of tradeable contracts.
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Lakers/Pistons Trade
LA gets:
-Bogdanovic
-Noel
-BeyDet gets:
-Beverley
-Jones
-Nunn
-Bryant
-Brown
-Toscano-Anderson
-2927 UNP FRPLakers/Jazz Trade
LA gets:
-Conley
-Clarkson
-OlynykUtah gets:
-Westbrook
-2029 UNP FRPhttps://t.co/rxKU4TWYAe pic.twitter.com/2nvUCUJW1l— LakerTom (@LakerTom) December 13, 2022
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Right now, nothing matters to the Lakers other than winning every game. Unless they can prove they can get to .500 and stay there without AD, there will be no help coming from the front office. Lakers simply have to get to and stay above .500 w/o AD.