Lakerholics

Lakers fans received some great news as Anthony Davis could possibly return to the court as soon as next week and be ready to play as the team embarks on a critical 5-game East coast road trip a week from tomorrow.

While Davis’ return is obviously dependent upon him continuing to be pain free as he ramps up his workouts and practices, the news could not have been better from the Lakers’ standpoint as they’re struggling to stay alive.
Currently at 21–25, the injury plagued Lakers are now in 13th place in the West, but just 1.0 game out of 10th place and the Play-In Tournament, and 2.0 games out of 6th place and a guaranteed top-6 seed in the playoffs.

Right now, nobody knows for sure what the Lakers’ front office is going to do. Normally, that inscrutability might be viewed as positive marketing. With the Lakers, however, most assign that uncertainty to dysfunction.
The Laker need to stop worrying about the future post LeBron and instead focus on the fact that James clearly looks like he will still be a superstar force for the three years remaining on his contracts with the Lakers.

With the Wild West still wide open, do the Lakers still have a chance to make the playoffs? Who should start when AD returns? What trades should they make at the deadline? And can they win another championship?

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Do Lakers Have Chance to Make Playoffs?

The Los Angeles Lakers have two paths to make the playoffs. They could finish in the top six teams in the West, which could give them a guaranteed playoff spot, or they could win a play-off spot in the Play-In Tournament.

Based on last seasons West standings, the Lakers would have to finish with a 48–34 record to earn a top-6 seed in the playoffs. Since they already lost 25 games, L.A. would need to finish the season 28–9 to match that mark.
While that might be impossible, the Utah Jazz currently hold the #6 place in the West with a 24–24 record so there’s a good chance the Lakers might be able to sneak into the top-6 in the West with less than a 48–34 record.

If the Lakers don’t finish in the top-6 in the West, they will need a win in the Play-In Tournament to secure either the 7th or 8th seed. Last season, the 7th seed Wolves finished 46–36 while the 10th seed Spurs were 36–46.
Again, the wins needed to make the Play-In Tournament are likely to be less than last season since the current 7th place Wolves are only 1 game over .500 and the 8th, 9th, and 10th place teams all have losing records.

In the best case scenario, the Lakers finish in the top 6 in the West. If they miss the top-6, finishing 7th or 8th is critical as they will get two chances to win a Play-In game and earn either the 7th or 8th seed in the West playoffs.

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Who Should Start for Lakers When AD Returns?

Once Davis and hopefully Walker and Reaves return from injury, Darvin Ham will hopefully remove Beverley from the starting lineup and settle instead on a Schroder, Walker, James, Davis, and Bryant starting lineup.

The other major change Ham has to make is return to his original lineup plan, which was to start Anthony Davis and Thomas Bryant at the four and five like the Bucks started Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez.
Moving LeBron and AD down a position gives the Lakers a positional size advantage in the front court, which is critical for a team that counters losing the 3-point battle by winning free-throws and points-in-paint.

Besides giving the team front court size, starting Thomas Bryant gives the Lakers another potential major scorer who attacks the rim aggressively but also has a deadeye shooting stroke both in the paint to beyond the arc.
The other advantage of starting Thomas Bryant next to Anthony Davis is probably the best way to take advantage of Thomas’ great offensive skills while minimizing the negative impact of his limited defensive ability.

Once AD returns and until the front office pulls off a non-Westbrook, one-pick trade, the Lakers should focus on a starting lineup of Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker IV, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Thomas Bryant.

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What Trades Should Lakers Make At Deadline?

Most observers expect the Lakers to keep Russell Westbrook and one of their two tradeable first round draft picks and trade Patrick Beverley and Kendrick Nunn plus salary filler and a protected first round draft pick.

The Lakers’ two greatest needs are a clutch starting small forward who’s a high percentage, high volume 3-point shooter who can close games and an athletic shot-blocking backup center to anchor the second team defense.
The best non-Westbrook, one-pick trade the Lakers could make would be Beverley, Jones, Brown, Nunn, and Toscano-Anderson plus a 20276 top-3 protected first round draft pick for Bogdan Bogdanovic and Nerlens Noel.

While Bogdanovic and Noel give the Lakers a nice boost in size, shooting, and defense, the Lakers still need a 3&D wing like the Knicks’ Cam Reddish to balance the roster and give them another option in the front court. Trading Lonnie straight up for Cam is a deal that should appeal to both the Lakers and the Knicks. The Lakers get Reddish and his Bird rights and the Knicks, who always have cap space, get a talented young player in Walker.

Lakers swap Beverley, Walker, Nunn, Jones, Brown, Toscano-Anderson, and their 2027 top-3 protected first round draft pick for Bojan Bogdanovic, Nerlens Noel, and Cam Reddish. Lakers keep Westbrook and 2029 pick.

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Do Lakers Have Chance to Win Championship?

With a healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing at an MVP level and trade reinforcements in Bojan Bogdanovic, Nerlens Noel, and Cam Reddish, this Lakers team could even be better than the bubble champs.

Frankly, the Lakers have always believed that a healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis is all they needed to have a legitimate chance to win the NBA championship, which they essentially proved to everybody in 2020.
While ownership and the front office may have had doubts, the way LeBron James is playing right now and Anthony Davis was playing before he got hurt have pretty much confirmed they are both top-5 superstars.

The Lakers post-trade starting lineup should be Dennis Schroder, Austin Reaves, Bojan Bogdanovic, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis. Bryant moves to the bench to give Bogdanovic as starting spot at small forward.
Westbrook will still run dominate the second unit but he will have more size and defense with Cam Reddish as backup small forward to guard bigger wings and Nerlens Noel as backup center to protect the rim.

While the Bogdanovic and Noel trade erases any cap space from letting Russ’ contract expire, keeping him could be the key to the Lakers winning the championship as he’s now learned how to play with LeBron and AD.

Complain all you want about the poor execution and dysfunction of their ownership and front office, but there’s no NBA franchise more willing to gamble everything and shoot for the moon than the Los Angeles Lakers.

While the Lakers may ultimately give in to win-now pressure to trade their two available first round picks, could a Zach LaVine trade this summer be their best opportunity to setup a successful transition from LeBron James?
While most observers view a LaVine to the Lakers trade as a long shot, could Rob Pelinka and Rich Paul conspire and force Chicago to trade Zach to the Lakers like they forced New Orleans to trade them Anthony Davis?

The Lakers are reportedly leaning to not trading their two first round picks because they want to save and combine them with their 2023 first round pick on Draft Day in a blockbuster trade for a third superstar this summer.
The superstar the Lakers are targeting is Zach LaVine, who recently signed with Kutch Sports, the same agency as LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The game plan could be to force Chicago to trade LaVine to the Lakers.

Let’s look at the Lakers’ options at the trade deadline and assess the chances a blockbuster Zach LaVine trade with the Bulls this summer could be Los Angeles’ best chance to setup a replacement for LeBron James.

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Why Bulls Need To Trade Zach LaVine and Rebuild

The Bulls invested three first round picks to assemble a team they thought could compete for a championship. Unfortunately, a major injury to Lonzo Ball and a losing season have them considering blowing everything up.

Right now, the Bulls are 20–24 and hanging onto their playoff hopes as the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference. With no word when Ball will return, the Bulls’ prospects to compete for a championship this season are dead.
There are conflicts to resolve between LaVine and DeRozan, and Vucevic has already declined an extension and decided to leave as a free agent this summer, putting more pressure on Bulls to consider becoming sellers.

Complicating any decision to tank is the Bull’s traded their top-4 protected 2023 first round pick to the Orlando Magic in the Vucevic trade. The Bulls are afraid if they tank, they could end up losing the #5 pick in the draft.
Realistically, the Bulls are caught in between a rock and a hard place but the smart move is to rebuild because it’s obvious that roster they’ve built is not good enough to compete with the top teams in the Eastern Conference.

The problem with rebuilding is a young superstar like Zach LaVine is in the first year of a 5-year max deal and is unlikely to want to spend the prime of his career as part of a rebuilding team, which is why he should be traded.

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How Lakers Can Force Bulls To Trade LaVine?

Rob Pelinka and the Los Angeles Lakers have a unique opportunity to work with Rich Paul and Klutch Sports Group to force the Chicago Bulls to trade superstar two guard Zach LaVine to them in a mega trade this summer.

Rich Paul has already set the ground work for Zach LaVine to demand a trade to the Lakers by raising the issue of the Bulls needing to rethink their long term strategy and probably blow everything up in a complete rebuild.
All that remains is for the Bulls to formally announce that they are willing to accept trade offers for LaVine, DeRozan, and Vucevic and for Zach to proclaim that the Lakers are the only team he’s willing to be traded to.

There would likely be immediate backlash throughout the league for Lakers trying to use the same tactics they deployed to force the Pelicans to trade Anthony Davis to motivate the Bulls to trade Zach LaVine to them.
LaVine demanding to be traded to the Lakers is the only way L.A. could beat out teams with better trading chips. No team is going to trade for Zach and the four max years left on his contract unless he wants to be there.

If Zach LaVine demands a trade to the Lakers and advises other teams they’re the only team he wants to be traded to and play for, then there’s a good chance we could see Zach LaVine in purple and gold next season.

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What Would Lakers Have To Give Up For LaVine?

Even with Zach LaVine demanding a trade, the Lakers will need to offer everything in their trade portfolio, including their 2023 first round pick, their 2027 and 2029 unprotected picks, and a 2028 first round pick swap.

Other teams will likely be reluctant to make significant trade offers for a player in the first year of a 5-year max contract who says the Lakers are the only team to whom he wants to be traded to and for whom he wants to play.
While the Bulls may not want to give up on LaVine, it’s hard to see them having a viable alternative if Zach is intent on forcing a trade to the Lakers. They may fight it but in the end, the Bulls know they need to rebuild.

Once the Bulls and Lakers agree to trade Zach Lavine, it makes sense for the the two teams to consider an expanded version of the trade that could also include other Chicago players like Nikola Vucevic and Alex Caruso.
In the end, the Lakers would give up five players with combined salaries of $75.1 million, their 2023 first round pick, their unprotected 2027 and 2029 first round picks, and a 2028 first round pick swap for three players.

Adding Zach LaVine, Alex Caruso, and Nikola Vucevic to LeBron James and Anthony Davis would immediately give the Lakers the best starting lineup in the league. That’s the type of home run the Lakers always look to hit.

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How LaVine Trade Sets Up LeBron James Transition

The Los Angeles Lakers will soon be confronted with the major challenge teams face in building championship rosters, which is how to successfully make the transition from a transcendent superstar like LeBron James?

Waiting too long to replace an aging superstar can lead to a decade of losses as the Lakers found out in the years after Kobe retired. The Lakers need to figure out how to avoid the same outcome when LeBron retires.
There’s a strong argument to be made that the smart way for the Lakers to manage the transition from the LeBron James era would be bring in a young superstar guard like Zach LaVine before the King is ready to retire.

The Lakers need their two tradeable first round picks right now to get the size, shooting, and defense needed to be a competitor. But they also need those picks this summer to trade for a replacement for LeBron James.
While James is still playing at the level of a top-10 superstar at age 38, the injuries have become more frequent and common so it makes sense for the Lakers to start seriously looking for their next superstar to replace LeBron.

Being able to orchestrate a trade for superstar shooting guard Zach LaVine as LeBron James eventual replacement as Anthony Davis’ sidekick is the type of shoot for the moon style of move for which the Lakers are renown.

The Los Angeles Lakers are on the clock and time is running out. Right now, the 20–24 Lakers are 13th in the West 1.0 game out of 10th and the Play-In Tourney and 2.0 games out of 6th and a guaranteed playoff spot.

The Lakers need to start winning games and climbing in the standings immediately if they want a legitimate chance to compete for championship this season. Unfortunately, the Lakers only have 38 games left in season. Realistically, they’ve already lost too many games to win 6th seed and a guaranteed playoff spot unless the crazy parity in the West holds. It took a 48–34 record last year to finish 6th and L.A. has already lost 24 games.

When it comes to the Play-In Tournament, however, the Lakers would have to completely collapse to finish below the 10th seed. While a 48–34 record guarantees a playoff spot, a 34–48 record would make the Play-in Tourney.
The realization that the best they can likely do for the regular season is make the Play-In Tournament has been a bitter pill to swallow and one of the reasons the Lakers have been hesitant to trade away their two picks.

In the end, though, the Lakers know, if they have a healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing at their best and give them a better supporting cast, they have more than a puncher’s chance to win the championship.
Having committed to only making trades that will improve the team both this season and the next two seasons, the Lakers have narrowed their trade strategy to focus on players who can still be contributors in the near future.

Knowing their best path to winning #18 is being patient and trading for players who complement and fit with James and Davis, here are five ‘gettable’ players to give the Lakers improved size, shooting, and defense.

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1. Bojan Bogdanovic, Starting Small Forward

Bojan Bogdanovic is the top player on the Lakers ‘Gettable’ Players Trade Deadline Big Board. His elite 3-point shooting and big time scoring is the perfect complement to the Lakers’ LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

While Bojan is 33-years old, the Lakers are betting that he still has several productive years left as indicated by his scintillating performance this season where he’s averaging career highs in points, rebounds, and assists.
The Lakers desperately need size, shooting, and defense. Bojan puts a big check next to both size and shooting. He should immediately become the Lakers best option when they need a basket to tie or win a close game.

If the Lakers decide to make just one trade, it should be to trade either Beverley, Nunn, Jones, and one first round pick for Bojan Bogdanovic or Russell Westbrook for a combination of Bogdanovic, Noel, and Burks.

Bojan Bogdanovic, Small Forward, 33-years old, 6′ 7″, 226 lbs
21.2/3.6/2.8 on 14.6/5.9/5.2 shots for 48.7%/41.5%/88.5% in 31.4 mpg

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2. Fred VanVleet, Starting Point Guard

Second on the Lakers’ ‘Gettable’ Players Trade Deadline Big Board is the Toronto Raptors’All-Star point guard Fred VanVleet, who’s a volume 3-point shooter who optimizes possessions and can run a championship offense.

Fred VanVleet is exactly what the Los Angeles Lakers need from a starting point guard. He’s a career 37.5% 3-point shooter on over 6 threes per game, a former Eastern Conference All-Star, and a proven championship winner.
While he’s only 6′ 1″, VanVleet is an excellent defender who’s averaged over 1.5 steals per game in each of the last four seasons. Fred has a player option for $22.8 million next season so can become a free agent this summer.

While the Raptors have several players the Lakers covet, the more likely deal is for the Lakers to just trade Beverley, Walker, Nunn, Jones, and a first round pick for Fred VanVleet and save Westbrook for a Pistons trade.

Fred VanVleet, Point Guard, 28-years old, 6′ 1″, 197 lbs
18.7/4.4/6.3 on 15.8/8.6/4.2 shots for 38.4%/33.4%/89.0% in 36.8 mpg

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3. Nerlens Noel, Backup Center

Next on the Lakers’ ‘Gettable’ Players Trade Deadline Big Board is Detroit Pistons backup center Nerlens Noel, who is still an elite defensive center with the quickness, hops, and timing to generate steals and block shots.

Noel’s value to the Lakers is as a backup center to anchor the team’s second unit defense and protect the rim when Anthony Davis is on the bench. In three recent starts for the Pistons, he averaged 1.7 steals and 2.3 blocks.
The overall defensive impact of having an elite shot blocker on the court for all 48 minutes of a game cannot be minimized. The lack of any rim protection with Davis out has been one of the Lakers’ greatest weaknesses.

The recent negotiations between the Lakers and the Pistons on a potential Bogdanovic and Noel trade has been encouraging. Trading for Bojan and Nerlens would give the Lakers a massive boost offensively and defensively.

Nerlens Noel, Center, 28-years old, 6′ 10″, 220 lbs (3 games as starter)
3.7/3.7/1.3 on 3.3/0.7/0.0 shots for 50.0/50.0%/0.0% in 20.3 mpg
Key defensive stats: 1.7 steals and 2.3 blocks in 20.3 mpg.

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4. Alex Burks, Starting Shooting Guard

Veteran Pistons shooting guard Alex Burks is next on the Lakers’ ‘Gettable’ Players Trade Deadline Big Board. Burks not only gives L.A. a shooting guard with size but also one who has shot over 40% the last four seasons.

Burks is the perfect fit as the Lakers’ starting shooting guard. He’s averaging 45.3% from deep on 4.4 threes per game and has shot over 40% from three for the last four seasons and has a 38.3% career 3P%.
Alec Burks, along with Fred VanVleet and Bojan Bogdanovic, give the Lakers three starters who shoot threes and combined made 7.3 of 18.9 3-point attempts per game this season for a 38.6% completion rate.

Alec Burks would be the third elite 3-point shooter the Lakers trade for and the third player coming back from the Pistons along with Bogdanovic and Noel as part of a Russell Westbrook and first round pick trade.

Alec Burks, Shooting Guard, 31-years old, 6′ 6″, 214 lbs
13.8/3.0/2.2 on 9.2/4.4/4.0 shots for 46.5%/45.3%/81.0% in 21.8 mpg

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5. Cam Reddish, Backup Power Forward

Cam Reddish is the last player on the Lakers’ ‘Gettable’ Players Trade Deadline Big Board. The Lakers use Lonnie Walker $6.5 million expiring contract to trade with the Knicks for young small forward Cam Reddish.

Reddish has been a huge disappointment for the Knicks, who spent a first round pick to acquire him from the Hawks. They’re even desperate enough to give him up for just matching salary and a pair of second round picks.
But the Lakers have a problem in that they will not have cap space to re-sign Lonnie Walker and would like to avoid losing him for nothing like they did Alex Caruso and Malik Monk. The solution is swap him for Reddish.

By trading Walker for Reddish, the Lakers avoid losing the former to free agency with nothing in return and get the latter’s Bird Rights so they can go over the cap to re-sign him should he turn out to be a good acquisition.

Cam Reddish, Small Forward, 23-years old, 6′ 8″, 217 lbs
8.4/1.6/1.0 on 6.8/2.8/1.7 shots for 44.9%/30.4%/87.9% in 21.9 mpg

The Los Angeles Lakers’ announcement that their strategy approaching the February 9 trade deadline would be to limit any trades made to deals that not only improve the team for this year but also over the next three years.

Frankly, the Lakers’ new trade strategy should have been their plan from beginning. Barring injury, LeBron James is playing like he will still be an elite player not only for this season but also during his two year extension.
Synching their trade deadline plans to the three years left on James’ deal makes more sense than trading away the future to win this season or stupidly sacrificing this season worrying about the post-LeBron years.

The Lakers essentially have two trade packages. The first package consists of the $20.4 million in expiring contracts of Patrick Beverley, Kendrick Nunn, and Damian Jones plus the Lakers’ 2027 or 2029 first round pick.
The second package consists of the $47 million expiring contract of Russell Westbrook plus the Lakers’ 2027 or 2029 first round pick not included in the first package. The Lakers can also make trades that don’t include picks.

Here is a 3-trade package that meet the Lakers’ new trade deadline strategy of not only helping win the team win a championship this season but also over the next two seasons in sync with LeBron James 2-year extension.

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Trade 1: Toronto Raptors

If the Los Angeles Lakers want to build a team to compete for the next 3 NBA championships, they need an elite starting point guard. The first step in rebuilding this roster for the near future is trading for Fred VanVleet.

The 28-year old VanVleet is a former All-Star point guard and NBA champion who’s an elite volume 3-point shooter, an accomplished low turnover playmaker, and a feisty perimeter defender despite his size.
VanVleet is available because the Raptors continue to lose and it makes sense to rebuild around Scottie Barnes and because Fred having a subpar season and has a player option to become a free agent this summer.

The Lakers get the young starting point guard they need to optimize LeBron James and Anthony Davis and the Raptors save the second year of VanVleet’s salary and get the Lakers 2027 unprotected first round pick.

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Trade 2: Detroit Pistons

Once the Lakers have VanVleet as their starting point guard, they can focus on filling out the starting lineup and upgrading the backups at all positions. The best option to do that is by trading Westbrook to the Detroit Pistons.

Bogdanovic and Burks give the Lakers new starters at small forward and shooting guard and empower the Lakers to surround LeBron James and Anthony Davis with three high percentage, high volume 3-point shooters.
The 33-year old Bogdanovic is shooting 43.6% from deep while the 31-year old Burks is shooting 38.6%, each on 5 attempts per game. The 28-year old Noel will let the Lakers have an elite shot blocker on court entire game.

Bogdanovic and Burks go a long way towards solving the Lakers’ 3-point shooting woes as well as giving them more positional size at shooting guard and small forward while Noel will solidly anchor second team defense.

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Trade 3: New York Knicks

One of the rules to building a roster with stability and continuity is to not lose valuable players like Alex Caruso and Malik Monk to free agency for nothing. The player most at risk for that this season is Lonnie Walker IV.

If the Lakers trade Russell Westbrook, they would then not have any cap space to reward Lonnie for the excellent season he has had. Walker will likely earn a larger and longer new contract than either Caruso or Monk.
Trading Lonnie Walker IV straight up for Cam Reddish seems like a win-win trade for both teams. Lakers get a needed wing with Bird rights. The Knicks get a promising young star whom they have cap space to re-sign.

Reddish gives the Lakers another 3&D wing to backup Bogdanovic and strengthen the second unit with needed size and shooting. Reddish fits the mold of a young player the Lakers hope will grow over the next 3 years.

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Lakers Depth Chart Before & After

A quick comparison of the Los Angeles Lakers’ depth chart before and after the 3 trades and 5 new incoming players shows how dramatically the trades have upgraded not only the starting lineup but also the primary backups.

The trades provided the Lakers with three new starters in VanVleet, Burks, and Bogdanovic but also two new primary backups in Noel and Reddish. The Lakers added greatly needed front court size, shooting, and defense.
The addition of Bogdanovic allows James and Davis to slide up to the 4 and 5 and the addition of VanVleet and Burks transforms the Lakers back court into an elite high volume, high percentage 3-point shooting guard tandem.

Swapping Lonnie Walker IV to the New York Knicks for Cam Reddish completes what is effectively a midseason extreme makeover of the Los Angeles Lakers roster to make them competitive for the next 3 years.

The Lakers started the second half of the season with a heart breaking double overtime 119–115 loss to the Mavericks in a game decided by a pair of game-saving threes by Luke Doncic and missed foul calls by the refs.

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THE GOOD!

Lakers Almost Won Game …even though they were missing Davis, Reaves, Walker, and Beverley. The game showed the Lakers current roster can still compete and is worthy of the front office getting help via a major trade.

Free Throw, Fast Break, and Points-in-Paint …differentials were again big factors for the poor shooting Lakers, who won free throws differential by 8 points, fast break points by 10 points, and points-in-the-paint by 4 points.

Points Off Turnovers …was another positive for the Lakers, giving up only 7 points off just 10 total turnovers while scoring 18 points while causing 19 Mavericks’ turnovers, a differential of 11 points in Los Angeles’ favor.

Offensive Rebounding … also favored the Lakers, who grabbed 14 offensive rebounds to just 3 from the Mavericks. LeBron James led the way with 6 offensive boards while Wenyen Gabriel had 3 offensive rebounds.

Great Games from Gabriel and Nunn …Wenyen Gabriel had 14 points, 7 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks, and was +9 for 33 minutes while Nunn had 12 points and a team-best +10 plus/minus in 18 minutes on the court.

Russell Westbrook’s Defense … on Luka was great and showed he could fill the Lakers’ need for a physical wing defender to slow down and limit bigger scorers. His physical defense on Luka was impressive.

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THE BAD!

Missed Free Throws … were big reason Lakers lost last night’s game. While the Lakers did make 8 more free throws, they would not have lost this game had they just shot their normal 79.5% instead of just 63.0% from the line.

Poor 3-Point Shooting … put the Lakers in a situation where they had to play an almost perfect game to win against the Mavs. Lakers lost the 3-point shooting differential by 12 points, shooting a miserable 24.4% from deep.

Bad Game from LeBron … per his standards was another reason the Lakers lost. Though he played 47 minutes,, James had a tough shooting night, needing 28 shots for 24 points, 0–7 from deep, and 6–10 from the line.

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THE UGLY!

Bad Game from Thomas Bryant … showed why the Lakers might still trade for a veteran center like Myles Turner. TB was outplayed a second straight time by a bigger and more athletic center in Mavs’ Christian Wood.

Horrible Game from the Refs … who did not blow their whistles on obvious fouls on Lakers’ shooters at end of regulation and first overtime. The worst officiated game I’ve seen this year with no consistency in calls.