Lakerholics

The 26–32 Los Angeles Lakers got a potential season-saving infusion of talent before the trade deadline as Rob Pelinka pulled off four trades that brought back six new players, including five who will be in the rotation.

That means Lakers’ rookie head coach Darvin Ham must put together revised starting lineups and rotations that include Rui Hachimura, D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Mo Bamba.
That could be worrisome as Ham’s questionable starting lineups and rotations, baffling preference for starting Dennis Schröder, and strange penchant for playing three-guard mini-lineups were heavily criticized.

With just 24 regular season games left in their season, the Lakers need to win almost every single game to make the play-in or playoffs and simply don’t have time to experiment with different starting lineups or rotations.
They will only have one chance to decide who starts and who is a backup. The Lakers desperately need rookie head coach Darvin Ham to make the right decisions on their starting lineups and rotations to win games.

That’s a heavy burden to put on a rookie head coach who’s already had to deal with major roster issues like talking Russell Westbrook into coming off the bench and dealing with a roster seriously lacking in size and shooting.
Ham’s won universal praise for how he handled Westbrook and for getting the Lakers to hang around without James and then without Davis but it’s up to him to construct a winning starting lineup and rotation for stretch run.

So let’s take a look at whom Darvin Ham is likely to start for the Lakers and whom is he’s likely to include in rotation as backups coming off the bench as the Lakers prepare to make one last-ditch stretch-run for the playoffs.

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Lakers’ Starting Lineup

While it could change, it currently appears Lakers’ coach Darvin Ham will start Dennis Schröder, D’Angelo Russell, and Rui Hachimura alongside superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis for their final 24-games.

The criticism of Ham’s decision has been immediate and fierce because starting a non-shooter like Schröder does not help the Lakers’ spacing and forces them to use shooting guard Austin Reaves as backup point guard.
After the trade deadline moves, everybody expected D’Angelo Russell to become the starting point guard and Dennis Schröder to replace Russell Westbrook as the team’s 6th man and point guard for the second unit.

The issue is also not that Schroder isn’t capable of playing mostly off the ball as a shooting guard, it’s that there are better options that provide the Lakers with better outside shooting and spacing for James and Davis.
Starting Schroder also likely prevents starting another non-shooter like Jarred Vanderbilt, who could be the starting small forward and shut- down defender if the team started a shooter like Malik Beasley at the two.

After watching Malik Beasley catch fire and hit 6 of 12 threes in a quarter and a half, one has to wonder at why Ham would not want to start Russell and Beasley, both of whom are among the top-15 in 3-point attempts.
A Lakers’ starting lineup with a backcourt of Russell and Beasley and a front court of Vanderbilt, James, and Davis would have elite 3-point shooting and a shut-down defender to guard other team’s leading scorer.

Darvin Ham needs to rethink starting Dennis Schröder and instead consider starting either Malik Beasley or Austin Reaves so Schröder can take over Westbrook’s role as 6th man and point guard for second unit.

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Lakers’ Backup Rotation

If the Lakers start Dennis Schröder, D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis, their backup rotation would be Austin Reaves, Malik Beasley, Troy Brown Jr, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Mo Bamba.

Basketball is not hockey where coaches sub out an entire lineup. In other words, Lakers fans should never expect to see Reaves, Beasley, Brown Jr, Vanderbilt, and Bamba on the court together, except under Darvin Ham.
For some reason, Darvin Ham is not a strong believer in staggering his two superstars and two point guards to make sure the Lakers have always have a superstar and point guard on the court for all 48 minutes of the game.

The Blazers game was a perfect example of what happens when a coach doesn’t set some simple rules for rotations such as always have a superstar, point guard, rim protector, and three shooters in the lineup at all times. With 3:20 left in the first quarter, Ham went with a lineup without Davis, Russell, and Schröder just as Dame re-entered the game. The result was the Blazers immediately turned a 3-point edge into a 15-point halftime lead.

Schröder and Ham have a long-time relationship and talked about the former playing point guard for the latter if were ever on the same team. That doesn’t mean Dennis should start, especially if not best for the team.
There’s been speculation in the media that Pelinka may have promised Schröder a starting point guard job to get him to sign like he did with Drummond last season. If so, time has come to break that promise.

If Darvin Ham insists on continuing to start Dennis Schröder at point guard, the Lakers’ starting lineup and rotations will struggle and their chances of winning enough games to make the playoffs will disappear

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Do Starting Lineups and Rotations Matter?

Whenever fans complain about their coach’s starting lineups and rotations, there’s always clapback that who starts doesn’t matter or who closes is more important. The truth is lineup building is as much art as science

First and most important, lineup building is about optimizing the potential synergy five players could have on the court together while making sure each lineup iteration was comprised off the critical mandatory elements.
For the Lakers, that means building 5-player lineups with one superstar, one point guard, one rim protector, and three 3-point shooters. It also means knowing that at least a fourth of the game will depend on subs.

It’s obvious head coach Darvin Ham’s inexplicable preference for starting Dennis Schröder this season is an eerie doppelganger of Frank Vogel’s equally inexplicable preference for starting Avery Bradley last season.
At some point, Ham has to realize that his trust and loyalty to Schröder cannot result in not putting the best possible team on the court to win. Otherwise, he’s likely to end up at the end of the year just like Vogel.

The All-Star break could not have come at a better time for the Lakers than right now as Darvin Ham desperately needs time and guidance on who to start and what rotations to make when the team makes its stretch run.
Hopefully, Rob Pelinka and other members of the front office will work with Ham over the break to get him to understand that starting Schröder at point guard is not the best strategy to build a championship rotation.

Starting Schröder could cause the Lakers to miss the playoffs and Ham to lose his job. Darvin and the Lakers need to make sure to get their starting lineup and rotation strategy right to make a run after the All-Star Break.

There’s no question Rob Pelinka put together a masterclass series of trades that could transform the Los Angeles Lakers from a team doomed to miss the playoffs to one with a puncher’s long-shot chance to win everything.

The questions left to be answered are whether the trades were good enough to transform the Lakers into legitimate contenders and whether the trades were done soon enough for Lakers to have time to get to playoffs.
Los Angeles essentially traded Westbrook, Beverley, Bryant, and three non-rotation players plus a protected first round pick for six new players, five of whom will become major players in their starting lineup and rotation.

At first glance, Pelinka clearly addressed the Lakers’ desperate needs for size, shooting, and defense while giving up only one lightly protected first round draft pick while smartly positioning the Lakers for next offseason.
The only problem is there is just 26 games left in the season for the Lakers to integrate 5 new players into their starting lineup and rotation and there’s simply no time left for Ham to play with lineups as the Lakers have to win.

Right now, the Lakers are 25–31 and 13th in the West, 2.5 games out of the #10 seed and the Play-In Tournament and 4.5 games out of the #6 seed and a guaranteed spot in the playoff with 26 games left in the regular season.
Starting tonight in San Francisco, the Lakers will finally have their full roster available, including both superstars and the players for whom they traded. To make the playoffs, the Lakers have to win almost every game.

Let’s take a closer look at Rob Pelinka’s master class for GM’s, the Lakers’ new roster and likely rotations, the team’s chances of winning their 18th NBA championship this season, and how they’re building for the future.

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Rob Pelinka’s General Manager Masterclass

Rob Pelinka deserves credit for giving NBA general managers a masterclass in how to give a two-superstar team with a poorly constructed roster a shot to get into the playoffs and have a puncher’s chance to win everything.

Redeeming himself after the potentially career-ending mistake he made in trading for Russell Westbrook last summer, Rob not only got the players he needed to land but also won the negotiating wars to acquire those players.
Pelinka has received universal praise for acquiring five legitimate rotation players like Hachimura, Russell, Beasley, Vanderbilt, and Bamba who are all young and athletic for just one lightly protected Lakers’ first round pick.

The challenge in any trade is getting the right player. Rob smartly brought the Timberwolves into the Utah Jazz trade so the Lakers would be able to trade for 26-year old D’Angelo Russell rather than 35-year old Mike Conley.
Pelinka also gets high grades for stealing 23-year old #9 draft pick Rui Hachimura from the Wizards and 24-year old #6 draft pick Mo Bamba from the Magic for just expiring contracts and multiple second round picks.

Hopefully, this will be the Rob Pelinka we’re going to see going forward. These were not ‘LeBron’ moves. Nor were they ‘Jeanie’ moves. These were Rob’s smartly executed moves to improve the Lakers today and tomorrow.
They were also moves that show a head of basketball operations who may finally be in control and doing what is part of a vision and plan and not just transactional responses due to a frugal, indecisive, or short-sighted owner.

While Rob received heavy criticism for trading for Westbrook last season and poorly constructing the Lakers’ roster the past two years, he redeemed himself with a masterclass in how to give a team an extreme makeover.

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Lakers’ Revamped Roster and Rotations

What immediately jumps out when you look at the depth chart for the Lakers’ roster after the trade is how much younger and bigger they’ve become. Lakers’ average age and size are now 25-years old and 6′ 6″.

The biggest two new additions to the Lakers will be likely be point guard D’Angelo Russell and center Mo Bamba. Russell starting at point will enable Schröder to replace Westbrook as the team’s 6th man coming off the bench.
Mo Bamba will start because the Lakers traded for him to give Anthony Davis a front court mate to lesson his workload, reduce the physicality of playing the five, and provide insurance in case Davis gets injured again.

While the Lakers have not announced who would start, the case for starting Bamba is compelling, starting with the Lakers knowing their slim hopes of winning the championship this season rest entirely on AD staying healthy. Pairing AD with a center like Bamba also gives the Lakers max positional size advantage in the front court. Davis gets to play his preferred power forward position and Ham gets to run his preferred two-bigs offense.

The above depth chart shows a projected starting lineup of 6′ 4″ D’Angelo Russell at the one, 6′ 5″ Austin Reaves at the two, 6′ 9″ LeBron James at the three, 6′ 10″ Anthony Davis at the four, and 7′ 0“ Mo Bamba at the five.
That lineup averages 6′ 8” in size and 7′ 1″ in wingspan, has 2 outstanding defenders in Davis and Reaves, 2 elite rim protectors in Davis and Bamba, and 3 high percentage 3-point shooters in Russell, Reaves, and Bamba.

The Lakers used the trades to upgrade their bench as Schroder takes over at point guard, Malik Beasley at shooting guard, Rui Hachimura at small forward, and Jarred Vanderbilt as power forward become primary backups.
Beasley is a lethal high volume 3-point shooter, Hachimura a 3/4 with size who can shoot, and Vanderbilt a 4/5 defensive Swiss Army knife. All three are good enough to challenge Mo Bamba to be the Lakers’ fifth starter.

One of the Lakers goals in rebuilding their starting lineup and rotation was to get younger, deeper, and more athletic and versatile. As you can see from the above depth chart, the Lakers extreme makeover was a huge success.

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Lakers’ Chances of Winning This Season

Most observers believe the Lakers dramatically upgraded their roster but don’t believe the moves they made were good enough or done soon enough for the 25–31 Lakers to win enough games to still make the NBA playoffs.

What everybody agrees upon is the Lakers need to start winning right now or they will have no chance of making the playoffs. There’s no time to play around with various lineups or rotations. Darvin Ham needs to be decisive.
Fortunately, Ham worked closely with Pelinka in developing the Lakers’ plan to retool the team’s roster so Darvin probably already knows who’s likely to start and who’s likely to backup whom, matchups notwithstanding.

While every single of the 26 games remaining on the schedule is critical, the 25–31 Lakers first priority is win 8 of their next 10 games and raise their win-loss record to 33–33. Do that and they’re likely in the Play-In Tourney.
The Lakers’ second priority is to to win 12 of their remaining 16 games, which would push their record to 45–37, which would give them a top-6 playoff seed at best or a #7 or #8 seed in the Play-In Tournament at worst.

To make the playoffs or favorable seed in the Play-In, the Lakers will likely have to win 20 of their remaining 26 games, which at first glance seems near impossible. In other words, the Lakers have a puncher’s chance.
But really, that’s all the Lakers have wanted in this injury plagued season, a chance to see what they could do with a healthy and dominant LeBron James and Anthony Davis and a roster that complemented them.

Frankly, a healthy and dominant James and Davis with a complementary supporting roster has always been the Lakers’ championship formula. They may be a long shot but if they get to the playoffs, they could win it all.

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Lakers Vision for Future

The major accomplishment by Rob Pelinka was not just making over a roster to win right now but also simultaneously establishing a bold vision for the next decade of Lakers’ basketball and building for the future.

The Los Angeles Lakers have been rightly criticized as a team that’s always in win-now mode and perennially sacrificing the future for the present. We now know all the talk about investing in the future was not just posturing.
Pelinka changed all of that with the moves he made this trade deadline. He not only fixed most of the Lakers’ size, shooting, and defensive issues but did so with bigger, younger, and more versatile and athletic players.

Aside from making over the roster, Rob also was able to get everybody in the Lakers’ front office on the same page financially, including committing to become a repeat taxpayer and to re-signing the players they traded for.
That’s a major strategic change for the Lakers, who prioritized cap space and often refused to trade for players unless on expiring contracts. The Lakers finally understand they need continuity to grow and get better.

While the Lakers are focused on building a deep and diverse team, they still have dreams of a third superstar. The trade for D’Angelo Russell was in part to get ready for a summer sign-and-trade with Dallas for Kyrie Irving.
Similarly, the all-out effort by the Lakers to keep their 2029 first round draft pick so they could pair it with their 2023 first round pick on draft day is part of a designed strategy by Pelinka and the Lakers to acquire Kyrie Irving.

While Pelinka’s received universal praise for terrific job he and his team did in transforming the roster to legitimate contender status, Rob’s greatest accomplishment was how well he’s positioned the Lakers for the future.

If the Los Angeles Lakers trade Russell Westbrook and Patrick Beverley, they would like to get back a starting-quality veteran point guard so Dennis Schröder could take over Russ’ 6th man role as lead guard off the bench.

With it becoming more and more obvious Westbrook cannot be trusted in tight games much less in the playoffs, the odds the Lakers will trade him in the next 3 days before the February 9 deadline has certainly increased.
The Lakers’ front office knows parity in the West has given them a unique opportunity to make the playoffs despite a current 25–29 record. With help from a trade, the Lakers could make a strong run and finish in the top-6.

Should the Lakers ultimately trade Westbrook, it probably means they’re going all-in to win this year and will also be trading Beverley and Walker, their only other contracts over the minimum besides James and Davis.
Since Dennis Schröder would be the only point guard left on the roster, the Lakers ideally want to bring back a better point guard who could start and allow Schröder to take over Westbrook’s spot leading the second unit.

So what do the Los Angeles Lakers want from their new starting point guard they can’t or aren’t getting from Dennis Schröder, who’s playing exceptionally well as the starter for a player on a minimum contract?
They want a point guard who can take and make more 3-point shots, has the physicality and tenacity to play switchable point-of-attack defense, and can contribute a high number of assist against low number of turnovers.

Let’s compare Dennis Schröder and four point guards who’ve been linked to the Lakers —Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, Terry Rozier, and Mike Conley — to see who’s the best fit of the five for shooting, defense, and playmaking.

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Who’s Best Fit As 3-Point Shooter?

Per the following chart, Mike Conley has the best 3-point percentage for this season at 36.6% and his career at 38.1%. The only issue is whether he takes enough threes per game for his 3-point gravity to attract defenders.

1. Conley, TYR: 36.6% on 5.1 3PA pg, Career: 38.1% on 4.1 3PA pg
2. VanVleet, TYR: 33.6% on 8.6 3PA pg, Career: 37.6% on 6.3 3PA pg
3. Rozier: TYR: 33.9% on 8.1 3PA pg, Career: 37.1% on 5.5 3PA pg
4. Lowry, TYR: 33.5% on 6.2 3PA pg, Career: 36.7% on 5.3 3PA pg
5. Schröder, TYR: 33.6% on 3.6 3PA pg, Career: 33.7% on 3.4 3PA pg

It’s a little concerning that all four of the point guard candidates the Lakers would have to trade for are now shooting a lower percentage from deep than their career. Schröder is shooting close to his career percentage.
There could be many reasons why Conley, VanVleet, Rozier, and Lowry are all shooting lower than their career percentage from three, including the challenge and burden of playing for a losing team that’s going nowhere.

Because LeBron James will often have the ball on offense, the Lakers’ starting point guard needs to possesses 3-point gravity that attracts and holds defenders close and keeps them from sagging into paint to help.
Teams aren’t worried about shooters who only take 3 or 4 and make 1 or 2 threes per game because that’s too few points. But a volume 3-point shooter taking 8 shots and making 3 or 4 could generate 9 or 12 winning points.

VanVleet and Rozier are actually better fits as 3-point shooters for the Lakers than Conley because they have greater 3-point gravity since they’re volume 3-point shooters who currently take over 8 threes per game.

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Who’s Best Fit As Perimeter Defender?

Finding stats to compare defensive players from different teams is difficult. But stats for how many combined steals or blocks a player makes can be an excellent measure of how active and effective a player is as a defender.

The Los Angeles Lakers are struggling as a team defensively, especially whenever Anthony Davis is not on the court to protect the rim. One major area that needs dramatic improvement is the Lakers’ perimeter defense.
Per the following chart, Fred VanVleet has the best combined steals and blocks stats, averaging 2.2 stocks per game for the season and 1.7 stocks for his career. Although only 6′ 1″, Fred is an elite point-of-attack defender.

1. VanVleet, TYR: 1.6 spg, 0.6 bpg, 2.2 sbpg, Career: 1.3 spg, 0.4 bpg, 1.7 sbpg
2. Lowry, TYR: 1.1 spg, 0.4 bpg, 1.5 sbpg, Career: 1.3 spg, 0.3 bpg, 1.6 sbpg
3. Conley, TYR: 1.1 spg, 0.2 bpg, 1.3 sbpg, Career: 1.4 spg, 0.2 bpg, 1.6 sbpg
4. Rozier, TYR: 1.0 spg, 0.2 bpg, 1.2 sbpg, Career: 0.9 spg, 0.2 bpg, 1.1 sbpg
5. Schröder, TYR: 0.8 spg, 0.1 blg, 0.9 sbpg, Career: 0.8 spg, 0.1 bpg, 0.9 sbpg

Kyle Lowry and Mike Conley both also have excellent steal and block stats with career averages of 1.6 stocks per game, just behind Fred VanVleet. Rozier and Schröder had lower but still respectable steal and block stats.
Steals and blocks or stocks are an excellent stat to use to measure player defensive activity, even for point guards. VanVleet’s 0.4 blocks per game is impressive and shows Fred plays much bigger than expected for 6′ 1.”

VanVleet is the best fit for the Lakers as an elite perimeter defender who plays bigger than his size and excels in creating steals and blocks, which is exactly what Los Angeles needs defensively from the point guard position.

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Who’s Best Fit As Smart Playmaker

Mike Conley appears to be the best fit for playmaking as he averages 7.6 assists per game, which is the best of the Lakers’ five starting point guard prospects. Conley is also second to Lowry in career assists per game.

But assists alone don’t define how good a playmaker a point guard is as the Lakers learned from Westbrook. While teams need point guards who create volume assists, they also need point guards who do not turn the ball over.
The second stat that defines a point guard’s performance is his assists-to-turnovers ratio. Here again, Mike Conley stands out with an incredible 4.8 to 1 assists-to-turnovers ratio for this season and 2.9 ratio for his careeer.

1. Conley: TYR: 7.6 apg, 1.6 topg, 4.8 a/to, Career: 5.7 apg, 2.0 topg, 2.9 a/to
2. VanVleet, TYR: 6.5 apg, 1.8 topg, 3.6 a/to, Career: 5.1 Apg, 1.6 topg, 3.2 a/to
3. Lowry, TYR: 5.0 apg, 2.0 topg, 2.5 a/to, Career: 6.3 apg, 2.4 topg, 2.6 a/to
4. Rozier, TYR: 5.1 apg, 2.3 topg, 2.2 a/to, Career: 3.3 apg, 1.3 topg, 2.5 a/to
5. Schröder, TYR: 3.8 apg, 1.6 topg, 2.4 a/to, Career: 4.6 apg, 2.3 topg, 2.0 a/to

Fred VanVleet’s 3.6 assists-to-turnovers ratio for this season is even better than his career 3.2, which is greater than the career ratios of any of the other four candidates. VanVleet and Conley are the best fits as playmakers.

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Who’s Best Fit Overall

The Los Angeles Lakers are looking for the starting point guard who would be their best fit for as a volume catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter, point-of-attack perimeter defender, and high assists and low turnover playmaker.

Three additional factors that need to be considered when deciding which of the five starting point guard candidates is the best fit for what the Lakers need are the player’s age, his annual salary, and the length of his contract.
Ideally, if the Lakers are going to spend a draft pick to get a player, that player needs to be somebody the team is investing in long-term and thus must be on a good contract or be willing to sign a reasonable extension.

The top starting point guard candidate who best fits the Lakers overall is Fred VanVleet, who at 28-years old is tied for the youngest with Terry Rozier. He also only makes $21.2M, lowest of the four trade candidates.
Fred VanVleet also was the winner or co-winner in each of the individual rankings of which point guard candidate best fits the Los Angeles Lakers as a 3-point shooter, perimeter defender, and smart playmaker.

Here is a bio and stat profile for each of the five starting point guard candidates —Fred VanVleet, Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, Terry Rozier, and Dennis Schröder in ranked order of best fit for the Los Angeles Lakers.

1. Fred VanVleet, 28-Years Old, 6′ 1″, 197 lbs, 1-Year at $21.2M,
TYR: 19.1/4.3/6.5 in 36.9 mpg on 15.8/8.6/4.1 shots for 34.3%/33.6%/90.2%
Career: 14.2/3.3/5.1 in 29.3 mpg on 12.0/6.3/2.6 shots for 40.3%/37.6%/86.7%

2. Mike Conley, 35-Years Old, 6′ 1″, 175 lbs, 2-Years at $22.6M
TYR: 10.3/2.5/7.6 in 19.6 mpg on 8.8/5.1/2.0 shots for 39.1%/36.6%/80.0%
Career: 14.7/3.0/5.7 in 31.9 mpg on 11.9/4.1/3.3 shots for 43.8%/38.1%/81.9%

3. Kyle Lowry, 36-Years Old, 6′ 0″, 195 lbs, 2-Years at $28.3M
TYR: 12.4/4.4/5.4 in 33.7 mpg on 9.9/6.2/2.8 shots for 40.0%/33.5%/85.5%
Career: 14.7/4.4/6.3 in 32.0 mpg on 11.1/5.3/4.1 shots for 42.4%/36.7%/81.5%

4. Terry Rozier, 28-Years Old, 6′ 1″, 190 lbs, 4-years at $21.4M
TYR: 21.7/4.2/5.1 in 35.7 mpg on 19.5/8.1/3.3 shots for 41.7%/33.9%/82.2%
Career: 13.4/3.9/3.3 on 11.6/5.5/2.0 shots for 41.7%/37.1%/82.2%

5. Dennis Schröder, 29-Years Old, 6′ 1″, 172 lbs, 1-Year at $1.8M
TYR: 12.3/2.6/3.8 in 30.4 mpg on 9.6/3.6/3.4 shots for 42.2%/33.6%/88.7%
Career: 14.1/2.9/4.6 in 26.7 mpg on 12.0/3.4/2.9 shots for 43.5%/33.7%/83.6%

With their starting front court now set with the Hachimura trade, the Los Angeles Lakers next move should be to upgrade their backcourt by pulling off a trade for the Toronto guard duo of Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent, Jr.

Upgrading their backcourt by replacing Dennis Schröder and Patrick Beverley with a pair of star guards from the Raptors in Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent, Jr. would improve the Lakers both on offense and defense.
It’s the also kind of move that would require the Lakers to give up both of their available first round picks, which Rob Pelinka says Los Angeles would only be willing to do if it would make them championship frontrunners.

With the trade for Hachimura, the Lakers starting front court is now set with Rui likely starting at the three, LeBron at the four, and AD at the five. That leaves the starting backcourt as the Lakers’ area of greatest need.
The NBA is still a guard’s league and the top teams in the league regularly get as much as 50 to 60 points per game from their backcourt. The Lakers’ backcourt only averages 39.8 points per game, 23rd out of 30 NBA teams.

To make the Lakers backcourt woes worse, it’s not like Schröder and Beverley are making it up with great individual defense. They’re undersized and frankly underqualified to be starters on a championship contender.
The eye test and analytics confirm that Schröder and Beverly are not plus defenders. They’re almost always outscored by their opposing duo, who’re usually players earning greater salaries and averaging double digits.

The time has come for the Lakers to upgrade their backcourt with a pair of guards who have the 3-point gravity to fix the Lakers’ spacing issues and the defensive grit and tenacious ability to play elite perimeter defense.

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How VanVleet and Trent Jr. Help Lakers Offensively

The Los Angeles Lakers greatest offensive need in the backcourt is high volume, high percentage 3-point shooting to create spacing to free up superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis to attack the paint and rim.

The biggest difference is VanVleet and Trent Jr. combined are averaging 37.8 points per game vs 18.3 points per game than Schröder and Beverley, more than twice as many points per game on slightly better shooting stats.
That’s a difference of almost 20 points per game, which will go a long way towards improving the Lakers win-loss record. Most importantly, half of those extra 20 points per game are due to more volume 3-point shooting.

Together, VanVleet and Trent, Jr. make 5.5 and take 15.8 threes per game while Schröder and Beverley make just 2.3 and take just 6.8 threes per game. The difference in made threes represents 9.6 points per game.
And that’s not counting the additional points that LeBron James and Anthony Davis get because there suddenly are wide open lanes to the basket because defenders cannot leave VanVleet or Trent, Jr. alone.

The balance of the 20 points per game more that VanVleet and Trent, Jr. generate comes because Fred and Gary are simply better offensive players. Their 3-point gravity opens doors that Schröder and Beverley simply can’t.
No disrespect but there’s a reason Fred and Gary combined earn more than twice as much as Dennis and Patrick. They’re bigger, younger, and more talented and their skillsets are better fits for the Lakers’ backcourt needs.

The Lakers have already begun their backcourt makeover by trading Nunn. If they want to compete for a championship, they need the volume 3-point shooting and better offense Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent, Jr. can provide.

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How VanVleet and Trent Jr. Help Lakers Defensively

The Los Angeles Lakers greatest defensive needs in the backcourt are preventing opposing guards from breaking down the defense and getting into the paint and forcing rotations that lead to easy wide-open threes.

The Lakers as a team rank 21st out of 30 NBA teams. While Schröder and Beverley have reputations as good defenders, the eye test this season has told a different story as opposing guards routinely blow by both of them.
Schröder’s and Beverley’s individual DefRtgs are 16th and 14th respectively out of the 18 players who have played for the Lakers this season. Their poor perimeter defense is part of why the Lakers are 20th out of 30 in DefRtg.

Strong point-of-attack defense begins with aggressive defenders who can pressure the ball and slow down the ball handler without fouling. Steals by guards are a good measure of how well a perimeter defense is working.
VanVleet averages 1.5 steals and Trent, Jr. 1.8 steals per game, for 3.3 total steals per game. Schröder averages just 0.7 steals and Beverley just 0.8 steals, for 1.5 total steals per game. VanVleet and Trent, Jr. play better D.

Steals are the result of increased activity by defenders, stealing the ball from dribblers, making interceptions by jumping the passing lanes, and doing whatever they can to disrupt and derail the other team’s offense.
Toronto ranked 1st out of 30 NBA teams by averaging 9.6 steals per game and VanVleet’s and Trent, Jr.’s 3.3 steals per game were a big part of that. The Lakers ranked 23rd in the league with just 4.7 steals per game.

The Los Angeles Lakers replacing Dennis Schröder and Patrick Beverley with Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent, Jr. as their starting backcourt would upgrade their perimeter defense to be among the best in the league.

The Westbrook Experiment should have been proof enough to the Lakers that ‘Three Superstars’ was not the right roster building model for them to take best advantage of their superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

The problem with ‘Three Superstars’ is there aren’t enough touches and basketballs to satisfy three superstars, nor enough room under the cap to build a deep and versatile roster if a team’s paying three max superstars.
The Lakers also do not have the trade assets or cap space to pursue any of the superstars like Zach LaVine, Damian Lillard, or Bradley Beal that are constantly linked to them in the media. Not in the Rudy Gobert era.

As the February 9 trade deadline nears, the Lakers should ignore dreams of a third superstar and instead focus on trading for two younger, less costly promising stars who to fill out the ‘Two Superstars & Two Stars’ model.
How LeBron James and the Lakers have been playing, the expected return of Anthony Davis, Lonnie Walker IV, and Austin Reaves, and the recent trade for Rui Hachimura are signs the Lakers are leaning to going all-in.

So let’s look closer at the ‘Two Superstars & Two Stars’ roster building model, what qualifies as a star or superstar, and which young stars the Lakers should be looking to trade for to complement LeBron and AD.

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What Is Difference Between Superstar and Star Player?

In the ‘Two Superstars & Two Stars’ model, a ‘Superstar’ is a Top-25 player who averages 25-35 ppg and makes $40-50 million per year while a ‘Star’ is a Top–100 player who averages 15-20 ppg and makes $15–20 million per year.

The Lakers are a perfect example of a team that should have adopted the ‘Two Superstars & Two Stars’ model last summer instead of embracing the flawed ‘Three Superstar’ model and dumbly trading for Russell Westbrook.
Had the Los Angeles Lakers traded Russell Westbrook to the Indiana Pacers for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield before training camp, they would then have acquired the perfect ‘Two Stars’ to pair with their ‘Two Superstars.’

When you consider most superstars have usage rates greater than 30%, it’s easy to see that there simply aren’t enough touches or basketballs for three superstars, which means at least one superstar has to sacrifice his game.
Why not replace that third underutilized superstar with two less costly star quality players who better fit and complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis and allow the team to build a deeper and more versatile bench.

The Lakers have three superstars and zero stars on their current roster. Their top priority before the deadline should be to trade Westbrook, Beverley, and filler for ‘Two Stars’ to complement LeBron and AD.

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Why ‘Two Superstars & Two Stars’ Is Better Fit for Lakers?

The main reason the Lakers’ ‘Three Superstars’ lineup failed is Russell Westbrook didn’t have the 3-point shooting gravity to create spacing for LeBron James and Anthony Davis to attack the rim and be their best.

But beyond the poor fit, the harsh reality of the ‘Three Superstar’ model is there aren’t enough touches and basketballs in a game to satisfy three superstars without one or more sacrificing their games for the team.
The ‘Three Superstar’ model also struggles when all three superstars make the max, which then forces the front office to fill out the rest of the team’s starting lineup and rotation with players earning near minimum salaries.

The Lakers currently have three superstars who earn $130 million per year combined. Other than the the three superstars, none of the other 12 players on the opening day roster earned earned more than $6.5 million per year. What the Lakers were completely missing was that second tier of elite starting players: the Stars, the key non-superstar starters who are Top-100 players who average 15–20 ppg and make $15–20 million per year.

The Lakers need to embrace the ‘Two Superstars & Two Stars’ model and replace third superstar Russell Westbrook and his $47 million contract with ‘Two Stars’ who would become starters earning $20 million per year each.

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Who Are Young Stars Lakers Should Be Trying to Trade For?

The Lakers should have an easier job finding two Stars than finding a third Superstar to complement superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis since by definition there should be four times as many Stars as Superstars.

The two players whom the Lakers trade for should start alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They could go small and trade for a starting wing like Bogdanovic or go big and trade for a starting center like Turner. Regardless of whom they trade for, the Lakers at this point in time need to trade for Stars who are young enough to still have an untapped upside and who fit well enough with James and Davis to become long-term keepers.

The Pacers’ Myles Turner and Buddy Hield, Raptors Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent, Jr., and Spurs Josh Richardson and Jakob Poeltl are three of the top paired candidates for ‘Two Stars’ to go with Lakers’ ‘Two Superstars.’
The Lakers could pursue any of the above ‘Stars’ individually or go after other possible candidate like Christian Wood, Kyle Kuzma, Mike Conley, Draymond Green, DeMar DeRozan, Cam Reddish, or Nerlens Noel.

The key difference is now the Lakers should have learned from Russell Westbrook that they should be looking specifically for players who fit the ‘Two Superstars & Two Stars’ model rather than ‘Three Superstars model.’