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LakerTom wrote a new post
Since declaring they plan to re-sign D’Angelo Russell as their point guard of the future this summer rather than pursuing Kyrie Irving, the Lakers had their first opportunity to see Russell and Irving go head-to-head last night.
While it’s just one game, Kyrie Irving dominated play and his match up with D’Angelo Russell as three costly end-of-game mistakes by Anthony Davis caused the Lakers to lose a 111–110 heartbreaking buzzer-beater.
Irving posted 38 points on hot 14–23 shooting, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists with just 2 turnovers in 39 minutes. Russell posted just 11 points on poor 5–17 shooting, 2 rebounds, and 11 assists with 0 turnovers in 36 minutes.Last night’s Mavs and Lakers game showed why the Lakers could still change their minds and decide to pursue a sign-and-trade for Kyrie Irving as their point guard of the future instead of re-signing D’Angelo Russell.
Kyrie is without doubt one of the most talented and hard-to-stop superstars in the league and performances like he had last night only make Lakers fans and even the Lakers front office more likely to rethink their position.But the decision is not as simple as deciding between D’Angelo Russell and Kyrie Irving. It’s actually a franchise-defining decision to pursue the three-superstars model or the two-superstars and deep-and-diverse-roster model. It’s about what is the right strategy considering where the Lakers are right now as a team, what resources they have to make changes, and what kind of roster do they need to build around LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
As great an offensive player as Kyrie Irving is, D’Angelo Russell is still a better overall fit for Lakers than because he adds continuity, is younger, is taller and longer, is less expensive, and is more trustworthy and reliable.
1. Russell Improves Lakers’ Continuity
The Lakers desperately need continuity after three years of one-and-done rosters. If D’Angelo Russell continues to play like he has, the Lakers need to re-sign him long-term rather than trying to trade him for a third superstar.
After turning over almost their entire roster other than superstars the past three summers, Los Angeles reversed that strategy at the trade deadline by focusing on trading for younger players who would be great long-term fits.
Based on what we’ve seen in the 9 games he’s played, Russell already is proving to be the perfect point guard for the Lakers. He’s averaging 17.9 points, 3.6 boards, and 6.4 assists in 29.8 mpg shooting 44.5/37.1/82.8%.The Lakers think they have at least three more years of LeBron James as a superstar and building continuity by re-signing D’Angelo Russell long-term, as well as their other new additions, should be be a top offseason priority.
2. Russell Makes Lakers Younger
The Lakers would be wise to prefer the now 27-year old D’Angelo Russell over the soon-to-be 31-year old Kyrie Irving as the former gives Los Angeles four more years in the heart of his prime than the latter is able to offer.
Russell just turned 27-years old while Kyrie turns 31 years old this month, making him almost 4 years older. Essentially, Russell is just now entering what will be his prime while Kyrie could be nearing the end of his prime.
It’s fascinating to watch the evolution of the Lakers’ roster average age. In 2019–20, Lakers’ average age was 30.0 years. In 2020–21, it was 30.9 years. In 2021–22, it was 27.1 years. In 2022–23, it’s now down to 25.6 years.Assuming the D’Angelo Russell we’ve seen is the D’Angelo Russell we get, the Lakers would be foolish to give up a budding young star just entering his prime for a superstar with questions who’s close to past his prime.
3. Russell Adds Size & Length
Some of the Lakers’ early struggles were because of the physical makeup of the roster, which lacked size and length at almost every position, especially point guard where Darvin Ham usually started the 6′ 1″ Dennis Schroder.
Aside from adding needed shooting and defense at the trade deadline, Pelinka also added critical positional size throughout the Lakers roster, including point guard with the 6′ 4″ Russell who has a 6′ 10″ wingspan.
Russell uses that size and length along with changes in pace and direction to control the speed and tempo of the game. He’s not an above-the-rim player like Westbrook or Morant. He’s a game manager with swag.Where Russell’s size and length have really helped the Lakers has been on defense. Since he’s joined the Lakers, D’Angelo’s 103.5 defensive rating has been second only to LeBron James 98.5 for the last 14 games of the season.
4. Russell Is Less Expensive
One of the major reasons for preferring to re-sign D’Angelo Russell rather than trading for Kyrie Irving is their relative annual salaries. D’Angelo might be willing to sign for $30 million while Irving wants $47 million.
The Lakers learned first hand from the Russell Westbrook experiment how paying maximum salaires to three superstars makes it almost impossible to build a deep and diverse roster to support and complement the superstars.
There’s a good chance the Lakers could re-sign Russell to a 4-year $120 million contract whereas Irving is reportedly seeking a $47 million per year max deal. Bottom line, Irving is a superstar while Russell is simply a star.The problem with the 3-superstars model is not having enough cap space left to build a deep, diverse roster. Re-signing a star like Russell rather than a superstar like Irving enables Lakers to build deeper, more diverse roster.
5. Russell Is More Trustworthy & Reliable
The single biggest reason the Lakers should re-sign D’Angelo Russell rather than trying to trade him for a third superstar in Kyrie Irving is Dlo’s proven to be a more reliable and trustworthy throughout his professional career.
In today’s NBA, a player’s greatest ability is unfortunately his availability. Over his eight full seasons in the NBA, Russell has averaged 72 games per season compared to Irving’s 55 games per season over his eleven seasons.
More importantly, since signing with the Brooklyn Nets, Kyrie has played in only 103 or 43% of the 236 available games for a variety of reasons ranging from injury to unvaccinated status to various personal reasons.The Lakers need leadership from their point guard and D’Angelo has now matured and shown he can be trusted to efficiently execute a game plan, and provide solid leadership and personal reliability on and off the court.
Rob Pelinka and the Lakers made smart decisions in rebuilding their roster via trades at the deadline with D’Angelo Russell one of the critical additions that’s transformed the Lakers into legitimate championship contenders.
While last night’s loss to the Mavs was disappointing and discouraging, the Lakers are still just 2 games out of the 6th seed with 11 games to go. Their chances and confidence of making the playoffs drop with every new loss.
Whether the Lakers without LeBron James can run the gauntlet and make the playoffs is not as important as watching the team finally make smart long term decisions and build a roster with great promise for next season.Kyrie Irving may have won last night’s lead-to-head with D’Angelo Russell but in the long run the Lakers should stay the course and understand Russell is the better fit as the Lakers point guard of the future than Irving.
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LakerTom1 year, 8 months ago
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I agree with this pretty much 100% but my concern is that a game like last night where all the new additions weren’t able to stop or overcome Kyrie. That sort of thing feeds into their “superstars rule over team” theory/fantasy.
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I dunno JS, the only balanced team without Supers were Hamster’s Pistons that romped us. Not saying we need 3 Supers, but we at least 2 plus surroundings that can hold on if 1 Super goes down. I prefer if we keep AD and LBJ, Ky is the fit. Other wise I go DLO and trade AD. We’ve way over estimated this comradery of these new guys (the gang that can’t shoot straight, lol!
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Player vs Player I’m taking Kyrie everytime. But the Lakers salary structure makes it pretty much impossible and also foolish. We’ve already seen what it looks like when you try to surround 3 huge salaries with a buncha minimum salary castoffs…it don’t work. Add to that you’d have 3 guys where you can’t pencil them in to even play 60 games a piece. Rob needs to continue to dismantle the garbage he put together over the last 2 years…not make the same mistake twice.
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I agree. One thing to look at is trade possibilities. Beasley, Bamba and Reed add up to 30 mil in tradable contracts. Even though they are not guaranteed they are technically under contract so they could be traded at the draft for an upgrade.
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We 10th, but we have 37 losses. Losses mean everything. I am thinking 4-7 in the last 11, unless LBJ comes back. If we can’t beat Houston and then Luka-Less Dallas at home, I have very low expectations. : (
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We should never forget this team is missing LeBron James but still competing and winning half of its games.
No Lakers team has been able to do that since we signed LeBron. Couple tough games could cost us season but not future.
If get to playoffs, LeBron changes everything. https://t.co/tMCl4RTWiw
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) March 18, 2023
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Not all about skills. It’s a head game as well. Member Magic, MJ, Kobe and LBJ smarts!
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We lost a game that we had won. And it’s on AD and others who missed free throws. But what I’m seeing on the blogs is that Dallas was some bad team without Luka. We were without LeBron so that was a wash. But the Mavs were favored in Vegas. Yes they didn’t have Luka but they are a good team without him. It was a missed opportunity for sure but it doesn’t mean we are a terrible team. The were one point better than us.
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Great points, Michael. One loss at this point does not eliminate us. We just missed a great opportunity to move up. Cats only have 9 lives.
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Always be sure to do homework. Did not say we are a terrible team, just NOT GOOD. Seems like we have, again, inconsistent G-Leaguers.
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Austin, Dennis, Gabriel. And Rui all had good games. DLO didn’t shoot well but he had 11 assists and no turnovers and was a plus 6. Even AD was okay, he just made a series of bad plays in the last 7 seconds. Hardly G leaguers. When you call them g leaguers that implies you think they are bad. We lost to a good team by 1 point when their superstars was hot. Happens.
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True, but I think all of us get sold on the 3pt shooters: Bullock, Ellington, Beasly, Pat Bev, TB JR, Walker 4 and the list goes on. Can’t think of hardly anyone we’ve had is a real 3pt threat when need. These MAJOR LEAGUERS seem to show up every 5 games.
Also know that if you are in the NBA, you are good.
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Where I completely disagree is that the moves made at the deadline somehow make this season a success. They do not. A losing season is a losing season, lipstick on a pig changes nothing except that you got a pig with red lips. It looks like one team or another that holds the tie-breaker over us will land at the 6 spot. So that means we’re really 3 games back. Missing the playoffs isn’t really acceptable but, if we can move through the playin and get to a favorable Kings matchup and move past the first round that would mean the current squad had grown together and is worth keeping some to most around. The calculus that’s being wholly ignored is the willingness of ownership to spend.
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Some, all, none…I don’t know. The energy and focus have a really high degree of variance with this team.
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So let’s look at some numbers. The projected salary cap for 2023-24 is $134 mil. If we waive Bamba by 6/29 (leaving only James, Davis, Vanderbilt, Reed, Christie & Swider) we’re sitting at about $95.5 mil in salaries. Pick up Malik’s option and that jumps to $112ish mil. You’re already looking at just an estimated $22 mil in cap space. That’s why I think, given his struggles, the Lakers will let Malik go. The Lakers need to be a lot smarter than they showed themselves to be the summer they gave THT a big contract and low-balled Caruso. They over-valued the Klutch relationship and under-valued what matters: on court fit. They compounded that mistake with the Westbrook trade.
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So, if I had a say, I would advocate to keep Reaves and Rui. Offer both $10 mil when free agency hits with player options for the following season and team options for the one after that with decent raises built in. Offer LW4 the MLE again or use it in a similar player. That leaves D-Lo. As you say, he’s entering his prime but has yet to separate himself from the good players to a great one. $30 mil will be the starting point and if another team that needs a PG that can score, pass and defend well-enough (that line is always long) goes up to $35-40 mil what do the Lakers do? Now you’re looking at being just over the cap at $123 mil if you succeeded in signing Reaves and Rui for $10/ea. and LW4 (or similar player) to the projected $7 million. With 9 players under contract. Wenyan maybe signs for the vet minimum, again, if no team offers him more. That’s 10. The vet min deals count as a fraction of their worth against the cap. I don’t see the Lakers going over $40 mil to keep Russell. Maybe $45 which is about what we spent on this season’s team. A team that isn’t .500 with 11 games to go and outside the playoffs.
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The team above will cost a few mil more than this season’s. It doesn’t even account for our draft pick, keeping our 2-ways, or keeping either Mo or Malik. If LeBron and AD are about as available as they have proven to been that’s not a contending team. That’s a team built on the hope that others fail.
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I disagree. The trade deadline was important for this season because we’re no longer in the new-roster-every-year mode now. Even if we don’t win, we’ve come a long way learning how to win without LeBron.
I’ve never bought into the fake idea that it’s championship or bust. Every championship that’s been won was built by moves in the preceding years. The trade deadline saved this year from being a waste.
We may not win a ring but we made great progress getting back to contender level this season, changes that will have a major impact on the franchise’s future for the rest of the LeBron James era.
Making the moves at the trade deadline rather than waiting until next summer was an important step in getting a jump start on building a championship roster. The time spent together will give the team invaluable information with which to make decisions this summer.
It’s rate that every move a team makes works out. We brought in five rotation players. I still believe there’s a chance 3 or 4 of the 5 rotation players we added could be kept long-term.
We will also have 2 picks and $30M in tradeable contracts with Beasley and Bamba if there’s a chance to go out and get a player like Anunoby or Turner.
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You don’t actually know any of the above. We could watch everyone who is not under contract walk and the Lakers throw the kitchen sink at Kyrie or make a trade for Lillard with our contracts and cap space. You have no clue what the Lakers will do and neither do I. You HOPE that the front office has learned some lesson. I do, too, but will not be surprised if, should this squad miss the playin, they all end up elsewhere.
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The calculus that isn’t being brought up is the money spent after we hit $134 mil. That will define everything. If, for some reason, Jeannie decides that this team which has had multiple chances to get to .500, is worth a massive tax bill, maybe we keep the players mentioned and Malik B. The tax bill, for the Lakers, will be high.
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Do you really think that Buss will pay $112 million for Russell and Beasley when she wouldn’t pay $30 mil for Caruso…who was a key player on a champion?
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What I love is how you just posted about the importance of roster cohesion, chemistry and all that while at the exact same time mentioning how we might only keep a couple, maybe even a few, players. That’s not even touching on Austin or Rui or LW4. You’re basically advocating for 3 or 4, maybe 5, players who have barely played with LeBron and are about.500 with AD being a contender and worthy of a potentially massive tax bill. While I admire your enthusiasm I just don’t see the logic. I doub that the cheapy Lakers will, either. That’s why I really want this group, right now, to push and fight their way into the playoffs and at least force a real conversation about keeping them together. Because if they don’t it won’t be a conversation.
Jeannie didn’t even want to make the Russ trade.
Somehow Rob got her onboard (likely with the low cost, low risk aspect of the deal as it allows the front office to keep it’s absurd plan to pursue a mega star in place). That is not a vote of confidence. -
Always sticking your head in the sand…
I’m just bringing up legitimate concerns based on patterns of well-established behavior. Feel free to ignore them. We will not go over the apron to keep a team that is neither .500 or a playoff team together. Guaaaaaaaaaaranteeeeeeeeeed. Not “rooting for doom and gloom”. You show me the smart decisions the front office has made since Rob took over balanced against the bad, stack ‘em on up and see what you’re left with. The Lakers do have the potential to make a lot of hopefully good choices this summer. To me, that means very little at this juncture. Every loss makes it more likely that they make a bad decision. If that’s a “win for the season” or whatever I ain’t buying.
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It doesn’t matter barring some miraculous string of health for a Lebron and AD. So far the ONLY player who took the crazy max and wasn’t a detriment to his team was Steph, but that’s obviously an oversimplification. You can’t pay Lebron 50mil at this stage of his career and seriously expect to compete. That mistake has poisoned the well as much as any of their (far too many to name) foolhardy moves. This team was cooked when they extended the washed king cuz that’s the brand I spose.
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The tax apron is 162 mil which is the level we pay tax. so we could pretty much keeps everybody because of bird rights if we wanted to and not go to far over the apron. DLO Is rumored to want 25 mil for 4 years. Which is fair for his skill level. Although you might see guys signing 1 + 1 with a huge cap increase expected in 24-25. As far as Bamba and Beasley, we can keep them, cut them, trade them or re-negotiate a more appropriate deal. So we hold all the card.
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The Lakers will not go over the apron. They have shown that to be an inherent philosophy for years now. But, for the sake of debate, let’s say they do. Still think D’Angelo will not be taking a pay cut. He made $31+ mil this season. That’s the negotiating floor. I don’t see him doing the team that traded him to get rid of Mozgov any favors and this could be his last chance at a big payday. Maybe the market dictates a lower floor, maybe higher as that remains to be seen. Same goes for Reaves. I want to say the bidding starts at 8 mil but, honestly things being as they are, it won’t surprise me if a team goes to $10 day one. I thought we held all the cards the season after the Bubble and we blew it. Big. Maybe lessons were learned, maybe they weren’t.
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As a matter of since the tax began in 2001, we are 5th in the league in taxes paid.
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Said/meant tax apron, which we did not go over this season. Now, hopefully, that means they wanted to just reset the repeater tax (which I’m not sure but believe they did) and will keep most or all the new guys. We’ll have to see. Regardless, my hopes aren’t high if they can’t even make the playin.
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Actually we are siting at 169 mil and the apron is 156 mil this year.
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Was reading a Spotrac grid that made it look like we paid 0 in taxes, possibly read it wrong (eyes old and mind tired w/east coast time change). My point is, minor amount or more of taxes paid or not, NBA scuttlebutt says Jeannie didn’t want to pull the trigger on the Russ trade. That’s astounding to me, if true. Furthermore, should we not get to .500 with the current cast of Lakers, make the playoff/in, then I have high doubts that we keep a lot of the current roster. Which means we’ll be doing exactly what we’ve done the past two seasons making it a trifecta of anti-team building. Furthermore, I’ve known plenty of card players that had a great hand a squandered it. Having good cards is but a small facet of the game as a whole.
In short I don’t believe the season could be qualified as a success just because we traded Russ. It was likely he was going to be gone by next season, anyhow. We just paid a smallish price to move him at the last moment (really ought to have been done last summer) and audition some guys on smaller deals. We can pick up the options on Bamba and Beasley and trade then, yes (if there’s a market for a $10 mil center who can’t score in the post and a $16.5 mil sniper with a penchant for missing) but have to trade them for someone under contract already, we’ll be hard capped if they sign an extension.-
Really I just don’t have a lot (sic:any) confidence that we’re not going to pursue an aged-superstar, especially if these guys don’t get the job done.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Back in March 2020, the Lakers gave the NBA a preview of a championship to come by dominating the Bucks and Clippers in a Friday night, Sunday afternoon double-header. They’re poised to do that again this March.
I have the same gut feeling about this coming weekend against the Raptors and Knicks as I had before the weekend back in March 2020 when Lakers faced season-defining back-to-back games against the Bucks and Clippers.
The situations are eerily similar. The Lakers are being disrespected despite playing extremely well. They have challenging games coming up Friday night and Sunday afternoon and the team is sky-high with confidence.Since the trade deadline, Anthony Davis has been playing like an MVP and the Lakers were #1 in team defensive rating, #1 in team rebounding, #2 in team free throws, #4 in opponent free throws, and #3 in opponent 3PA.
Numbers wise, since the trade deadline, the Lakers have won 7 of last 10, 6 of last 8, 3 of last 4, and last 2 games. 3 of the last 4 wins were without James and Russell and 1 win was without James, Russell, and Davis.Now in the #9 spot in the West standings, the Lakers have given the rest of the league a glimpse of their possible future led by two-way superstar Anthony Davis, the league’s #1 defense, and a deep and diverse roster.
The Lakers are now at the top of the ladder of losing teams and just 2 wins from .500 and grabbing the bottom rung on the ladder of winning teams. They’re playing at home and should finally get D’Angelo Russell back.The Friday night game against the Raptors should be the easer game just like the Bucks were in March 2020. The Sunday afternoon game against the Knicks, like the Clippers’ game, will be the Lakers’ biggest challenge.
Right now, the Los Angeles Lakers are 1-point underdogs against the visiting Toronto Raptors on Friday night and will likely be even bigger underdogs against the resurgent New York Knicks on Sunday afternoon.The Raptors lost to the Clippers last night so have now lost 2 in a row but are still 6–4 in their last 10 games and much improved after trading for Jakob Poeltl at the deadline. The Lakers should beat them by 15 points.
The Knicks will be the challenge that should bring the best out of the Lakers. They just had their 9-game winning streak broken at home by the Hornets so they still have won 9 of their last 10. Lakers by 10 over Knicks.Get ready for a big Lakers weekend. With Russell returning and Davis playing like MVP, Lakers are going to come out and play two near perfect statement games to end the weekend at 34–34 on 4-game win streak.
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Friday, March 6, 2020 – Lakers beat Bucks 113-103 at Staples
Sunday, March 8, 2020 – Lakers beat Clippers 112-103 at StaplesFriday, March 10, 2023 – Lakers beat Raptors by 15 at Crypto
Sunday, March 12, 2023 – Lakers beat Knicks by 10 at Crypto -
I find it hard to make a lot of comparisons to the year that COVID affected, I will forever see that title as the most mentally unique and difficult while also being the least physically taxing. It created a false sense of hope that AD could carry a team in the same manner LeBron, Kobe and Magic have shown they could.
The issue is both the three month break and the lack of travel during the playoffs. Those factors are never gonna happen again and since that season AD has yet to play 60 games in and has missed the playoffs, along with the rest of the Lakers, two years running.
We remember (kinda) those games because of the title that came after, not because they were defining regular season games. That Lakers team also had the best record in the western conference at the time which stood up after we won the first Bubble game and promptly rested LeBron and AD, again.
This team is vastly different in composition, experience and chemistry. I would choose the Bubble roster over the current one every time. This current team has way more to prove, and work to do in the standings to reach the heights the 2019-2020 Lakers had passed at this point weeks prior.
I’ll say this though, this iteration of the Lakers HAS to treat every game like its a game 7 to win a ring from here on out. Anything less will result in the waffling and mediocrity that has largely defined the Lakers all season long.
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…as the nost?????? Huh? the most?
You do know you can edit your posts?-
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The mistake is in thinking these two games will define anything at all. Honestly, since when did we care about regular season wins around here?
Also it sucks to post from a phone. 😉
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During the game, I was shouting out “Bubble Champs!” whenever AD made a play.
Even though it’s a title, and every team in the bubble tried their best to win that title, it’s treated as a slur against the team.
Never understood that slur. Probably the cleanest championship ever won given that the circumstances were the same for all teams.
And what people forget – the Lakers lost out the most because they had home court.
Very important that this team learn how to win games where the situation is not perfect.
Last game, AD had 7 turnovers, but the Lakers still found a way defensively to eke out a win.
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While true I don’t think the lack of any travel at all, especially during the actual NBA Finals, can be overstated enough. No cross country flights, no vindictative hotel staff trying to low key poison you with a bad burger and straight to treatment on ailments post game.
Anyhow, I do agree that we need learn how to win when the chips are down. That was one of the hallmarks of that 2019-20 squad. They didn’t win going away a lot but they did win. Usually because of defense and enough scoring to win.
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Not sure how beating a sub .500 team on the cusp of missing the play-in is some kinda earth-shattering statement but…..ok
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But doesn’t that feel like the bar for this team now? That’s what I’m not really going to get behind. “yay! we’re pretty average…” Not when you’re paying LeBron and AD the money you are.
I can even understand folks defending LeBron or AD because it’s not their fault they’re hurt. While that may or may not be true it is someone’s fault to invest this and next season in them, possibly beyond.
Every game with AD comes with an asterisk and two boxes to check off: he made it without getting hurt AND he played with intensity. For a lot of guys those boxes a re checked as a default setting. Not Davis.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
While it’s been a frustrating injury-plagued season, Anthony Davis playing like the MVP and the new-look Lakers’ post trade deadline defense are now driving a late-season march to the playoffs that’s looking like a slam dunk.
Over the last 9 games, the Lakers have a 6–3 record, including a 2–2 over the last 4 games without LeBron James and D’Angelo Russell as Anthony Davis and their 2nd ranked defense dominated the paint and the boards.
During those 9 games, the Lakers posted the second best defensive rating at 108.9, the best rebounding rate at 49.9 per game, third most free throw attempts at 28.1 per game, and 6th most possessions for 9 games at 922.Nagging injuries every time they appear ready to get healthy and a poorly constructed roster the front office was unable to correct until right before the trade deadline have bedeviled the Lakers at every turn this season.
But despite everything that’s happened, the contagious parity in the West and the Lakers’ stubborn refusal to quit has them positioned for the upteenth time this season to jump from lottery team to play-in team.Let’s look at 5 big reasons why the Lakers are looking like a team that’s not only going to make the playoffs but is also going to be the team that no other NBA team wants to face in the playoffs, especially in the first round.
1. Lakers On Verge Of Making Play-In Tournament
Right now, the Lakers are tied with the Minnesota Timberwolves at 31–34. The Timberwolves get #10 and the Lakers the #11 team because Minnesota owns the tie-breaker, having already beaten the Lakers twice this season.
If the Sacramento Kings beat the New Orleans Pelicans tonight, the Lakers will take over the 10th seed temporarily with a legitimate opportunity to solidify being in the Play-In Tournament by beating Memphis tomorrow.
That would raise the Lakers win-loss record to 32–34 and give them 7 wins in their last 10 games and position them to move up to #7 or #8 seeds to get two shots at making the playoffs or #6 or higher to make playoffs directly.The Lakers’ worst case scenario is to finish the season in 9th or 10th place, which would require them to win two play-in games to win the 8th seed and the right to face the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs.
2. Lakers Should Get D’Angelo Russell Back This Week
The single biggest thing the Lakers need right now is to get starting point guard D’Angelo Russell back. Russell sprained his ankle on a fluke injury on February 23rd and is day-to-day but has missed the Lakers last 5 games.
With LeBron James also out, the Lakers’ offense and playmaking have struggled with backup point guard Dennis Schröder starting and backup shooting guard Austin Reaves serving as the team’s backup point guard.
Right now, it’s looking like Russell is still feeling some pain when moving laterally so it’s likely he will miss tomorrow night’s game vs. Memphis. Hopefully, the extra two days off should have D’Angelo ready for Friday.The good news is the Lakers should be dramatically improved beginning this Friday when starting point guard D’Angelo Russell is likely to return to the starting lineup at Crypto.com Arena against the Toronto Raptors.
3. Lakers Have 4th Easiest Remaining Schedule in NBA
The Lakers have the 4th easiest schedule in the NBA for their remaining 17 games. The only Western Conference team with a more favorable closing schedule is the Dallas Mavericks, who have the 3rd easiest schedule.
The Lakers other Western Conference competitors all have less favorable schedules than the Lakers and Mavs. The #10 Jazz, #5 Warriors, and #6 Timberwolves have the 4th, 7th, and 8th hardest schedules in the league.
The Lakers’ easier schedule could easily be worth a game in the standings against these three teams. The Clippers and Pelicans have the 15 and 25th hardest schedules, which gives the Lakers less of an advantage over them.Having the 4th easiest schedule gives the Lakers an advantage over most of their competitors in the Western Conference. It could even be enough to save the Lakers from losing a decision due to their lack of tie breakers.
4. Lakers Could Benefit From Playing Tanking Teams
The Lakers have 9 of 17 remaining games scheduled against teams who are or should be tanking. They have single games against the Pelicans, Magic, and Thunder and pairs of games against the Rockets, Jazz, and Bulls.
One of the benefits of the crazy parity in the West is that many of the 10 teams bunched in the middle could just as easily decide to go for a 10% chance of drafting Victor Wembanyama versus going for the playoffs.
For teams who need to win every game, having a tanking team on the schedule could be a huge difference-maker when it comes to racking up enough wins to make the Play-in Tournament or the playoffs directly.The Lakers play so many teams that are either tanking or should be tanking that making at least the Play-In Tournament is more of a slam dunk now than a long shot and making the Top-6 in the West in still very possible.
5. Lakers Are Team Nobody Wants in Meet In Playoffs.
The Los Angeles Lakers are a slam dunk to make the playoffs this season. They are either going to win enough games to win the #5 or #6 seed in the West or they’re going to win the #7 or #8 seed through the Play-In Tourney.
Should the top-4 in the West remain the same, the Lakers first round opponent if they finish 5th is the Phoenix Suns, if 6th the Sacramento Kings, if 7th the Memphis Grizzlies, and if 8th the Denver Nuggets.
The Lakers can expect heavy jockeying by teams looking to avoid having to play a potentially deadly Los Angeles squad with a healthy and hungry LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the first round of the playoffs.Right now, the Lakers most likely path to the playoffs is by finishing #7 or #8 in the West, enabling them to have two shots at winning one game to make it to the playoffs as the #7 or #8 seed to play the Nuggets or Grizzlies.
Depending on what happens with Ja Morant, the Grizzlies could find themselves in free fall. It also remains to see whether the Mavs or Clips can put it together to make a run. Most likely Suns and Lakers in West Finals.It will take a perfect storm of luck and health but it’s possible that the Los Angeles Lakers can not only make the NBA Playoffs but also find lightning in a bottle and go all the way to win their 18th NBA Championship.
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1. Lakers On Verge Of Making Play-In Tournament
If the Kings beat the New Orleans Pelicans tonight, the Lakers will take over the 10th seed temporarily with a legitimate opportunity to solidify being in the Play-In Tournament by beating Memphis tomorrow.https://t.co/AGeoWB1skm pic.twitter.com/Xon59h7xFE
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) March 7, 2023
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2. Lakers Should Get D’Angelo Russell Back This Week
The good news is the Lakers should be dramatically improved beginning this Friday when starting point guard D’Angelo Russell is likely to return to the starting lineup against the Toronto Raptors.https://t.co/AGeoWB1skm pic.twitter.com/4syzIhvVkl
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) March 7, 2023
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3. Lakers Have 4th Easiest Remaining Schedule in NBA
Having the 4th easiest schedule gives the Lakers an advantage over most of their competitors in the West. It could even be enough to save Lakers from losing a decision due to lack of tie breakers.https://t.co/AGeoWB1skm pic.twitter.com/RCEwIwHUfF
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) March 7, 2023
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4. Lakers Could Benefit From Playing Tanking Teams
The Lakers have 9 of 17 remaining games left against teams who are or should be tanking. They have games against the Pelicans, Magic, and Thunder and pairs of games against the Rockets, Jazz, and Bulls.https://t.co/AGeoWB1skm pic.twitter.com/55DuiRECvz
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) March 7, 2023
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5. Lakers Are Team Nobody Wants in Meet In Playoffs.
It will take perfect storm of luck and health but it’s possible Los Angeles Lakers can not only make NBA Playoffs but also find lightning in a bottle and win their 18th NBA Championship.https://t.co/AGeoWB1skm pic.twitter.com/jgba9vCgQI
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) March 7, 2023
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LakerTom wrote a new post
The Lakers’ win last night against the Oklahoma City Thunder without LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and D’Angelo Russell was nothing short of a ‘must win’ game Los Angeles needed to keep their playoff dreams alive.
With LeBron James out for at least half and possibly the rest of the regular season, the Lakers’ rapidly diminishing hopes of making the playoffs and enjoying a championship run are now hanging by the thinnest of threads.
Realistically, the Lakers’ only remaining path to the playoffs is an inspired Davis taking the baton from an injured James and somehow, someway finding a way to win enough games to make the Play-In Tournament.With LeBron’s return uncertain, the season is now in the hands of Darvin Ham. The Lakers will live or die on his ability to motivate players, play the right lineups and rotations, make the right adjustments, and win a title.
Frankly, it will take a perfect storm of good-news wins and injury-free games for Ham and the Lakers to even have a shot at making the playoffs but the parity in the West still leaves the door open for a Lakers run.So let’s take a hard look at how Darvin Ham has grown over the past year and see if his coaching strengths as a motivator, lineup and rotation creator, and in-game adjuster have become good enough to win a ring.
Ham’s Motivational Ability?
Darvin Ham’s greatest strength and asset as a basketball coach is his ability to build strong personal relationships with his players and convince them to buy in to his vision of how the game of basketball should be played.
Earlier in the season, we saw Ham’s interpersonal skills first hand as he convinced Westbrook to come off the bench and motivated Davis and then James to elevate their games and carry the team while the other was out.
More importantly, Ham was able to motivate the players on the Lakers’ roster to play hard and compete. There were very few of the blowouts that marked Frank Vogel’s last season. Lakers were gritty bunch under Ham.We saw more of the kind of job Darvin Ham has done integrating the six new Lakers players in the big win over the OKC Thunder last night without their top three stars in LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and D’Angelo Russell.
Ham played basically a 9-man rotation with a few throw-in minutes for Max Christie. The Lakers won 123–117 with Schroder, Brown, and Reaves all playing big roles and 9 of the 10 Lakers who played scoring over 5 points.Despite six new players and missing his three best players, Darvin Ham had the Lakers ready to win last night and his ability to get players to buy in and play hard for him bodes well for the Lakers’ LeBron-less stretch run.
Ham’s Lineups and Rotations?
It’s hard to fairly evaluate Darvin Ham’s early lineups and rotations because of the flawed roster given him by Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office. Having said that, Ham’s rookie rotations likely cost the Lakers a few losses.
While Anthony Davis will be the key to whether the Lakers can finish the regular season and make the playoffs without LeBron James, rookie head coach Darvin Ham’s lineup and rotation decisions will be just as critical.
The hope after the trade deadline was the new-look Lakers would be able to finish the season with a consistent starting lineup of D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, LeBron James, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Anthony Davis.With James possibly not returning until the playoffs and no timeframe set yet for Russell’s return, Ham will be responsible for deciding who replaces James and Russell to start and close and who will be in the main rotation.
Hopefully, the new-look roster is better balanced and has more options for size, shooting, and defense at every position that Ham should find it much easier to develop a solid starting and closing lineup and related rotations.Ham will need to shake his rookie jitters and make sound decisions on who will start and close games and be in his middle of game rotations, which should be much easier now that the roster has been completely rebuilt.
Ham’s In-Game Adjustments?
Making in-game adjustments is clearly Darvin Ham’s greatest area that needs improvement. While it is an expected weakness for a rookie head coach, it’s also what Ham needs to improve most for the Lakers to win.
It appears part of Ham’s coaching philosophy is to focus on doing what the team should be doing before giving up and changing strategy or scheme, which has been a criticism his mentor Mike Budenholzer has also heard.
Ham was justifiably criticized for waiting until the fourth quarter to try having Jarred Vanderbilt defend Ja Morant after he torched the Lakers for 28 points in the third quarter. Or for having AD stop playing drop coverage.Lately, however, there have been some good positive signs that Ham is starting to be less reluctant to try changes to mix things up. He went to the zone against the Thunder and the players he closed with won the game.
Darvin also deserves credit for how he handled Schroder’s embarrassing quitting in the middle of a play in the closing minutes of the 4th quarter. Ham immediately pulled Dennis and got him ready to go last night.Darvin Ham’s still going to make rookie mistakes but he’s learning fast and has increasingly shown to be capable of handling what is obviously a very challenging head coaching job. His in-game adjustments are improving.
Ham’s Chances To Win Championship?
The one thing that gives Lakers fans the most hope Darvin Ham can lead this team to the playoffs and beyond ishow hard players play for him and how they never quit, whether superstars and back-end-of-rotation guys.
Last night Lakers win over the Thunder without LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and D’Angelo Russell and with five new players who weren’t here a week ago in the rotation was a tribute to the hard work of Darvin Ham.
The Lakers were not only ready to play but ready to win without their stars. Game balls to Dennis Schroder, Troy Brown, Jr., and Austin Reaves, who bounced back great after tough games in the Grizzlies’ loss in Memphis.There’s been considerable controversy about the Lakers having Anthony Davis take a long-term planned ‘load management’ game off last night after Darvin Ham had said all of his players would play every game unless hurt.
In the end, critics thought the Lakers should have had AD sit out against the Grizzlies but play against the Thunder. The alternative, which makes more sense, is the Lakers played Davis against Denver hoping to win both games.The Lakers are understandably moving towards more load management for James and Davis to keep them fresher and heathier. Ham’s development of the rest of the roster could be the key to the Lakers winning #18.
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Darvin did a near perfect job getting the team ready and making smart substitutions all night long. What impressed me most was our ability to hang close enough to then close out and win the game going away. Well done, Darvin.
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I mean…players health probably looms larger than Ham’s ability to motivate or X’s and O’s but this is definitely up there in terms of what needs to break right.
Can’t make anymore last two minute blunders in terms of play calling, not using time outs, and continue to manage his challenges well. He’s been fine in all those areas and pretty darn good in terms of when he deploys the coaches challenge.
Some of this will also track back to the players on the team and their level of professionalism. Of course you want to come out of this season with a raise and that’s not necessarily going to come from the Lakers as they will have some sort of internally installed spending ceiling. Guys like Schroder, Reaves and biggest of all D’Angelo Russell are going to, on some level, be thinking about that next deal. Ham needs them to buy into what we need them to do now and they need to buy in at a high level. That can be a challenge in and of itself.
The health thing… I dunno man, we have a new training staff, we’ve rested AD and LeBron a decent amount, I think AD is just fragile and LeBron is just old and that’s kinda that. So, whatever else he can squeeze out of the rest of the roster will really define his coaching job.
The in-game adjustments are, in my opinion, the hardest to judge because they’re defined by the in-game situations which aren’t static like the players or his basic strategies as a coach. He’s been OK with the in-game adjustments, but he’s also made some really questionable choices.
All in all, I’d probably rank Darvin as the 3rd reason as to why we won’t or will make the playin. I don’t think we get to the playoffs without LeBron but it’s certainly a mathematical possibility at this point. The health of AD and the professionalism and internal motivation of the players comes second (and Ham has some influence e over that for sure) come before the job a coach does.
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With LeBron out I think the biggest challenge is finding chemistry. Since the trade it’s been like pre season with just the games and no practice. Confusion on defense, missed assignments, confusion on transition defense, spacing issues on offense and passes to no one. This is all because the guys haven’t played together. Yet we are 5-2 since the trade. Looking at the schedule I think we have enough talent to make the playoffs if we can get DLO back soon and learn how to play together. That’s the toughest task for sure.
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Michael, everyone of you made a good point. But I would say that the issue of chemistry is the biggest problem. That is primarily the reason for those 26 turnovers against Memphis. That has to be expected. But I also expect that to subside once they get to know each other’s tendencies.
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Little off the subject, but NBA has got to lengthen the season (not more games) and give players a chance to rest. All these guys like LBJ, AD, KD, Booker, Ja, KAT, Curry, etc. are getting hurt too often! Bodies need time to recoup!
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DJ, while I agree with your opinion, I also think it won’t be fair to the older generations who had been there and done that. I am against changing anything. Let the players of this generation deal with it. I am not going to feel sorry for them. It’s been there before them.
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My thinking is more about the fans paying for high $$ tix and want to see the stars play. My son and I would go to Indy 3 times a year and don’t want to see Lakers without Kobe. NBA can make adjustments just like MLB has this new season (pitch clock bigger bases, etc.
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I feel you and I share your concern as well. Things haven’t looked the same ever since Pop and the Spurs invented Load Management.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
Jarred Vanderbilt couldn’t have asked for a better venue to showcase to the basketball world why he’s the missing puzzle piece to transforming the Los Angeles Lakers languishing defense back to a top-5 squad in the NBA.
In an electrifying performance, Vanderbilt showed why he could be the steal of the trade deadline as his dominating defense on Luka Doncic and energizing hustle and aggression fueled the Lakers’ monster comeback.
Vando’s 15 points, 17 rebounds, and 4 steals were at the heart of every run the Lakers put together to bounce back from their 27-point deficit early in the second quarter and stun the Dallas Mavericks with a 111–108 victory.More importantly, Vanderbilt’s game saving performance cemented how impactful he has become for Lakers defensively with his elite hops and rebounding and combo of defensive quickness, physicality, and length.
There has only been one instance in the history of the NBA where a team that was not a top-10 defensive team was able to win the championship. Vando could be the player who transforms the Lakers to a top-5 defense.Since trading for Vando, the Lakers have gone 4–1 and are currently on a 3-game winning streak and their defense, which ranked in the bottom third of the league before the trade, has been the league 3rd best since the trade.
Whether the Lakers’ new look roster gells soon enough to make playoffs or they have to wait until next season to make a run for #18, the Lakers know they now have found the key player they needed to revitalize their defense.So let’s take a closer look at why Jarred Vanderbilt has been such a great fit in the Lakers’ starting lineup and why he could be the missing puzzle piece to transforming Los Angeles’ languishing team defense into a top-5 unit.
Vanderbilt Gives Lakers Elite Wing Defender
The Lakers biggest defensive weakness the past three years has been the lack of a 6′ 8″ wing defender who could shut down or slow down the bigger guard and wing scorers in the West like Luka Doncic and Paul George.
Credit to someone in the Lakers organization who had the vision to think outside the box and find a better solution to a wing defender than spending all of their valuable trade capital for an elite option like O.G. Anunoby.
The answer was the brilliant 3-team trade where Pelinka got the defensive wing they desperately need in Vanderbilt and the necessary high volume, high percentage 3-point gunners in Russell and Beasley to make it work.Pairing an elite wing defender who can’t shoot with two high volume 3-point gunners with good size was an inspired solution to the Lakers’ desperate need for a wing defender while still improving their spacing.
Vanderbilt has been the difference maker the Lakers’ defense needed, giving them an elite versatile defender who can defend all five positions. Teams now have to game plan for Vanderbilt when playing the Lakers.Vanderbilt showcased his defensive stopper capabilities to the max against the Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Doncic, who leads the NBA in scoring. Luka went 0–3 and turned the ball over 5 times when defended by Vanderbilt.
Visibly frustrated by Vanderbilt, Luka struggled to maintain his usual control over the game pace as Jarred’s quickness, physicality, and 6′ 8″ size and 7′ 1″ wingspan forced him to speed up his game and make errors.Thanks to outside-the-box front office thinking, Jarred Vanderbilt now gives the Lakers an elite 6′ 8″ wing defender with size, length, quickness, and physicality to shut or slow down the West’s bigger wing scorers.
Vanderbilt ‘Completes’ Lakers’ Front Court
Jarred Vanderbilt is also the perfect fit as third member of what could be the NBA’s best defensive backcourt. His size, length, quickness, athleticism, savvy, and physicality complement and ‘complete’ the Lakers’ front court.
Finally, after three full years of watching the small forward position being poorly manned by shooting guards, the Lakers have finally given the small forward position back to the front court through 6′ 8″ Jarred Vanderbilt. What Vanderbilt does is create an almost interchangeable front court trio with James and Davis that can defend all three front court positions and has versatility to switch in the front court. No more small ball for Lakers.
Vando ‘completes’ the Lakers in that he provides everything their two superstars need in a third front court player: great defender, cutter, rebounder, and passer who does all of the little things that matter.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis have never had a third front court member as impactful as Jarred Vanderbilt. He could make this Lakers front court even better than the 2020 championship front court in the bubble.Vanderbilt is only 23-years old and has two years left on his contract with an annual salary under $5 million, which means he’s likely to become a staple alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis for the next three years.
Finding that third front court member who complements and completes the Lakers front court was a huge plus for the Lakers’ chances to make the playoffs this season and emerge as a consistent contender going forward.With a towering, long, and athletic front court trio with 6′ 8″, 6′ 8″, and 6′ 10″ size 7′ 0″, 7′ 1′, and 7′ 6″ wingspans, the Los Angeles Lakers have what could become the best defensive front court in the league the next few years.
Vanderbilt Helps Lakers Backcourt Defense
The key to balancing the Lakers’ starting lineup to include a non-shooter like Jarred Vanderbilt is starting a pair of volume 3-point gunners D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley, who together take over 15 threes per game.
Since the Lakers traded for Russell, Beasley, and Vanderbilt, who all played together on the Minnesota Timberwolves before being traded to the Jazz as part of the Rudy Gobert deal, their backcourt defense has been excellent.
In fact, during the Lakers current 3-game win streak, the three Lakers players with the best individual defensive rating were surprisingly D’Angelo Russell at 83.5, Malik Beasley at 88.3, and Jarred Vanderbilt at 93.7.The combination of having Vanderbilt defend the opposing team’s leading scorer, who’s often a guard, and having three elite rim protectors in James, Davis, and Vanderbilt in the front court helps L.A.’s backcourt defense.
That Russell, Beasley, and Vanderbilt have played together before on the Wolves also had to help them get off to a good start in purple and gold. There were moments when the Laker defense was rotating on a string.D’Angelo Russell is 6′ 5″ with a 6′ 10″ wingspan and Malik Beasley 6′ 4″ with a 6′ 7″ wingspan, which makes the Lakers backcourt bigger. With Schroder moving to the bench, the Lakers suddenly have a bigger starting lineup.
That positional size and length advantage translates into more rebounds, dunks, layups, blocks, and steals throughout the game. After suffering from being undersized, watching the Lakers bully ball other teams is fun.Having D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley post the best defensive ratings on the entire Lakers team for the current 3-game win streak is encouraging since both guards were brought in for their offense, not their defense.
Vanderbilt Makes Lakers Top-5 Defense
NBA history is studded with great players like Ron Artest,Dennis Rodman, and Draymond Green who found ways to become championship players despite not being shooters. The Lakers think Jarred Vanderbilt is another.
In the 5 games since the trade deadline, the Lakers have a 4–1 record and a team defensive rating of 106.8, which 3rd best in the NBA for that period. During the recent 3-game win streak, they had an even better 104.2 rating.
One of Rob Pelinka’s goals at the trade deadline was to improve the Lakers’ defense as well as their offense, which is why Rob demanded Vanderbilt be part of the trade and why they pursued Bamba in the end over Bogdanovic.Pelinka knows defense wins championships and the current roster needed help on the defensive side and the offensive side. Before the trade, the Lakers had #19 OffRtg at 113.1, #20 DefRtg at 114.3, and #24 NetRtg at -1.1.
For the 5 games after the trade, the Lakers had #21 OffRtg at 112.4, #3 DefRtg at 106.8, and #7 NetRtg at 5.6. While the deadline trades have not yet helped the Lakers’ offense, they’ve definitely given L.A. a defensive boost.The Lakers simply need to play like a top-5 defense for the 21 games left on their regular season schedule. That means posting a defensive rating below 110.0 for the rest of the regular season, which L.A. should be able to do.
The challenge for the Lakers is going to be to stay healthy. We already heard that James and Russell will both miss tomorrow night’s game against the Grizzlies. Hopefully, they’ll both be ready to play Wednesday night.With Vanderbilt becoming their shut down wing defender, ‘completing’ the Lakers front court, and helping the backcourt defend better, the Lakers have a chance to enter the playoffs with a dominant top-5 team defense.
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The big challenge for coach Darvin Ham is figuring out whom to start. It will be interesting to see who replaces LeBron. I could see him inserting Rui or Mo. Be interesting to see how a front court of AD and MO could do to an undersized Grizzlies team missing their starting center.
I seriously think the Lakers can win tonight’s game. This team loves LeBron James and to a man, I expect to see nothing but their very best effort tonight. Lakers win by 20. Four in a row. Watch it happen live tonight. Lakers win 4th in a row.
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I expect Rui to start. He matches up well with Tillman who is also 6’8” and not the scoring threat that Rui is. At 6’ 11” Jackson Jr is not undersized and he is a scorer and you definitely want AD on him. I think Vandy will draw Bane. He is a big time scorer. And if Vandy can hang with Luka, he can hang with Bane. Probably have Beasley on Brooks. Brooks can be streaky but over all not a good shooter. Dennis had a great defensive game against Ja last time so hopefully he can do it again.
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Rui needs to be aggressive in getting his easy midrange jumpers. He can jump over most defenders. We really need Russell to get back. LeBron’s playmaking will be the hardest to replace. We need DLO for that.
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My concern has been Rui. Not that he has been a disappointment it is just that he needs to be more aggressive and start making those midrange jump shots. He tends to be a little bit passive but I am liking what I am seeing so far. There is a little bit more to be desired.
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I think you’re spot on with the matchups, Michael, but I would still like to see how Vando does against Ja for a few possessions. Lakers still need to win this game with their defense. That’s what’s gotten much better post trades.
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Jackson Jr is a walking foul waiting to happen. AD needs to put pressure on him early and send him to the bench.
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Good read, LT, as you know I was stoked to see Jarred come here minute one. The Mavs were the best test to date and there will be some other good ones down the line. Hope the young man forces us to pay him a lot of money…and that we make good on that and don’t pull a Caruso.
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Thanks, Jamie. I tried in every trade to include one promising young player. Vando, PJ, Bey. Rob may have the steal of the trade deadline in Vando. That trade is Pau Gasol quality deal.
The trades and new look roster have me not so worried about LeBron’s injury, especially since no surgery will be required and it’s not season ending.
I’m hoping the injury can be a silver lining for this team in AD taking over (yeah, I know but it’s going to happen some time and the situation now is ripe for it) and the team coalescing around winning for LeBron.
In a way, to me, this is an opportunity to see what an Anthony Davis centric basketball team might look like. This team is really deep and diverse. I think we can win tonight and keep making progress despite LeBron being out. If we can, that will give the team and us fans a lot more hope for good endings.
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Won’t go full hyperbole and compare it to the Gasol trade which resulted in 3 straight NBA Finals appearances and 2 banners but it did improve the team if only by sticking to the summer plan and not using both picks.
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The Lakers transformed their roster to complement, support, and help the team win when James and Davis miss time with injury.
We're going to get a real time trial run of what the new look Lakers roster can do with James now out 2-3 weeks.https://t.co/3VXlYcwSVR
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) February 28, 2023
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