Lakerholics

Nothing’s been easy for the Lakers this season. They needed overtime to beat the Timbewolves in the Play-In to get into the playoffs and overtime last night to take a commanding 3–1 lead over the troublesome Grizzlies.

The new-look Lakers are no longer just superstars James and Davis and a bunch of no name role players. The emergence of Reaves and trades for Russell, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, and Beasley have transformed the roster.
Last night’s game confirmed what we have been watching during this series: the Lakers have a deep and diverse roster that no longer has to rely on LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing like superstars to win games.

While LeBron’ James stole the show with his game-tying layup with 0.8 seconds left in regulation and game-sealing layup plus free throw with 29.4 seconds left in overtime, multiple other Lakers players were also heroes.
Reaves’ 23-points were game high and his +12 plus/minus second best. Schroder scored 12 points with a team-best +24 plus/minus. And Russell’s three straight threes to fuel the fourth quarter comeback were critical.

The contributions from the non-superstars have actually been what has given the Lakers their commanding 3–1 lead over the Grizzlies. It’s why the Lakers have won 3 of 4 playoff games and are top-4 in DefRtg and NetRtg.
Lakers best Playoff OffRtsg were Hachimura 116.4, Russell 114.8, Schroder 112.2; best Playoff DefRtg Schroder 99.5, Reaves 100.0, and Davis’ 102.8; and best Playoff NetRtg Schroder +12.7, Hachimura +11.7, Reaves +10.7.

While James and Davis are available, both are slightly hobbled by injuries and constantly dodging possible reinjury which makes the emergence of Reaves, Russell, Hachimura, and Vanderbilt a life saver for the Lakers.

---

The Lakers dilemma has been their inconsistency as teams and as players. Some of it is because of the lack of continuity and chemistry due to injuries and new players. The only cure is more on court minutes and reptitions.

James and Davis still seem to be struggling some with their foot injuries and almost taking turns carrying the team as they try to figure things out. James and Davis together appeared in only 36 of the Lakers 82 games.
That the Lakers were able to win 3 of their 4 games against the Grizzlies despite LeBron James posting a negative -2.2 net rating is a testament to the trade deadline roster makeover and defense anchored by Anthony Davis.

While the Lakers have in some ways struggled to adjust to playoff mode, the good news is they have still figured out how to win. It may not have been easy or pretty but in the end, they found a way to bring home a W.
While there have been calls for Mo Bamba and Lonnie Walker to be given an opportunity, Darvin Ham and his coaching staff have done an excellent job so far getting the team ready and motivated to play at a high level.

The monster test for these inconsistent Lakers will be closing out the Grizzlies Wednesday night and hopefully getting a few days off before having to face the winner of the Kings and Warriors first round series.
Will they ride the momentum of last night’s big win and come in ready and motivated to complete the 4–1 Gentlemen’s Sweep of the Grizzlies or will they show up fat, flat, and happy and allow the Grizzlies to stay alive.

The Lakers need to recognize they were just a missed layup by LeBron from being tied 2–2 with the Grizzlies. Lakers need to play their best game of the series tomorrow night and complete Gentlemen’s Sweep.

While the #7 seed Lakers have stolen home court and have a 2 -1 lead over the #2 seed Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs, 38-year old superstar LeBron James has, by his own standards, gotten off to a slow playoffs start.

James averaged 28.9/8.3/6.8 and shot 50.0/32.1/76.8% in regular season. In the playoffs, he averaged 28.6/9.0/7.2 and shot 49.5/33.5/73.9%. In 3 games against Memphis, he averaged 24.7/10.7/4.3 and shot 50.8/20.0/66.7%.
Of special concern are his reduced scoring and playmaking. James is averaging 3.9 fewer points and 2.9 fewer assists per game while shooting 13.5 and 3.2 percentage points lower on his 3-point shots and free throws.

The greatest concern is LeBron James’ team worst -5.3 plus/minus. The Lakers have always won the LeBron James minutes. Their problem this series has been losing the minutes when LeBron James is in the game.
So far, Davis, Russell, Reaves, Vanderbilt, and Hachimura have posted postive plus/minus and net ratings while James, Brown, Schroder, and Gabriel have struggled and posted negative plus/minus and net ratings.

While three games is a small sample size, this is the playoffs and frankly, we have not yet seen Playoff LeBron. We’ve seen glimpses in a specific play or series of plays but not the King literally taking over a game or series.
There are some who think James may be taking a deliberate step back to give co-superstar Anthony Davis the opportunity to step up and take the torch from the King and become the team alpha and face of the franchise.

The big question is whether James had just been coasting and filling in what he perceives the Lakers need as the series proceeds or whether his slow start is a sign that he might not be able to be a superstar every night.
Everybody knows Father Time will eventully defeat even the King. We’ve seen the start of it with the more numerous injuries and longer recovery time to get back on the court. Could the next step be part-time superstar?

We’ll get an answer to that question when the Lakers play the Grizzlies in Game 4 Monday night in L.A. The Lakers have essentially stolen home court and taken a 2–1 lead without LeBron James playing like a superstar.
Game 4 is when superstars like LeBron James take over 2–1 playoff series and transform them into 3–1 series headed for a ‘Gentlemen’s Sweep.’ Game 4’s are when even part-time superstars put on their Superman capes.

In the end, there’s no way the 7th seed Los Angeles Lakers are going to beat the 2nd seed Memphis Grizzlies unless they win the LeBron James minutes for the rest of this series. Lakers need LeBron James the superstar to win.

Sometimes, when somebody foolishly ‘pokes the bear,’ the right response is for the bear to bite back hard and give the fool a lesson, which is why Dillon Brooks should be careful because he just might get what he wants.

Everybody understands that Brooks is just trying to get James to indulge in a personal battle with him instead of focusing on the team’s game plan but maybe the Lakers’ plan for Game 3 should be to unleash James and Davis.
After all, the Lakers’ winning combination has always been a healthy James and Davis with complementary roster. But in Game 3, James and Davis were on court together for 29 minutes and posted a terrible -20.5 net rating.

Individually, James posted 28 points, 12 rebounds 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, and just 1 turnover in 39 minutes but had a team worst -17 plus/minus. While LeBron shot 12/23 from the field, he was just 1 for 8 from deep.
Meanwhile, Davis posted just 13 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 0 steals, 5 blocks, and 2 turnovers in 38 minutes with a -4 plus/minus. Anthony was great defensively but shot poorly hitting only 4 of 14 shots in the loss.

Since their trade deadline makeover, the Lakers have discovered a formula for winning that makes up for points given up due to poor 3-point shooting by winning the points-in-the-paint and made-free-throw differentials.
Unfortunately, that winning formula did not work in Game 2 as the Grizzlies not only won the 3-point battle by 12 points but were able to tie the Lakers in the number of made-free-throws and points-in-the-paint.

The Lakers delivered a brash statement to the Grizzies in Game 1 but the gritty Grizzlies punched back hard and raised the physicality of the series. It’s time for the Lakers to do same and punch back and be more physical.
LeBron James doesn’t need to be poked by the likes of Dillon Brooks to be motivated to come out and dominate Saturday night but only a fool would expect the proud James not be looking for payback against the Grizzlies.

But LeBron does not have to score 40 to show the world what happens when you poke the bear. What he has to do is create a wire-to-wire Lakers win that resets the relative standing and hierarchy between the two teams.
While the Lakers blew an opportunity to sweep the Grizzlies, they still won home court advantage by winning one of two in Memphis and there’s still a path for a gentlemen’s sweep if they take the two games in Los Angeles.

Payback. That’s what Saturday’s game will be all about. The Lakers learned an important lesson from Game 3 that should get their attention and focus them on upping their game, their focus, and their physicality to new levels.
The playoffs are about adjusting and elevating your game as your opponent adjusts and elevates their game. You adjust or you go home. LeBron and AD need to adjust and elevate their games for the Lakers to win Saturday night.

Dillon Brooks saying he doesn’t respect LeBron because he hasn’t scored 40 on him and calling him old is not going to end well for him or the Memphis Grizzlies. LeBron’s response is going to be to take it out on the Grizzlies.

After blowing a golden opportunity to steal a second road win from the #2 Memphis Grizzlies, the #7 Los Angeles Lakers would be smart to consider starting Rui Hachimura over Jarred Vanderbilt for the rest of this series.

Hachimura has been the Lakers best player on offense, posting a gaudy 133.3 OffRtg for the two games and tying LeBron James with a team best 24.5 points per game for the series while also playing well defensively.
Rui’s ability to score efficiently from all three levels has opened up the Lakers’ offense. After leading the Lakers to the win with 29 points in Game 1, Hachimura followed up by scoring 20 points in the L.A.’s Game 2 loss.

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has struggled offensively, especially around in the paint. Jarred reminds fans of Ben Simmons when he gets the ball near the basket. His offensive struggles were a lethal killer in yesterdays’ loss.
The Grizzlies showing the Lakers they can raise the defensive pressure to another level puts L.A. in a tough spot. The Lakers may need Hachimura’s offense more than they need Vanderbilt’s defense in this specific series.

Hachimura is averaging 24.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.5 steals, and 0 blocks in 29.5 minutes per game in the series. His advanced stats include a team best 133.5 OffRtg, 5th best 118.8 DefRtg, and 4th best +15.3 NetRtg.
Vanderbilt is averaging 6.0 points, 5.5 rebound, 0.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks in 22.5 minutes per game. His advanced stats inclued a team worst 112.0 OffRtg, 2nd worst 120.0 DefRtg, and 2nd worst -8.0 NetRtg.

Ham has already responded to Hachimura’s superior play by giving him minutes that used to go to Vanderbilt. Hachimura 29.8 minutes per game is 5th highest on team in the series whereas Vando’s minutes dropped to 6th
The Lakers’ next step could be to replace Vanderbilt in the starting lineup with Hachimura. Statistically, Hachimura has been the Lakers’ best and Vanderbilt the Lakers’ worst offensive player so far in this series.

Ham will likely keep the same starting lineup for Game 3 with Vanderbilt knowing he needs to be aggressive and score near the rim rather than just passing the ball out. If he struggles again, Hachimura could start Game 4.

It only took one playoff game for the L.A Lakers to force late-to-the-party NBA reporters and analysts to suddenly switch positions and promote the 7th seeded purple and gold from a pretender to legitimate contender.

The Los Angeles Lakers have always believed that a healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis surrounded by a roster that complemented them was all they needed to have a legitimate chance to win an NBA championship.
Ironically, that’s exactly where the Lakers find themselves after a trade deadline roster makeover and late season resurgence. The new-look Lakers suddenly are fully heathy and playing as well as any team in the league.

Fortunately, the parity in the West that resulted from expanding the postseason to include more teams via play-in tournament and balancing the odds of getting the top draft pick are likely to extend into the playoffs.
We’ve aready seen three Western Conference teams — Lakers, Kings, and Clippers — pull off First Round Game 1 upsets and players returning from injury and getting injured are already changing the playoffs’ dynamic.

Unfortunately, heath is the issue for the Lakers, who dodged a bullet when Davis was able to return for the second half after suffering what appeared to be a serious injury late in the first half for the second time in two weeks.
But even if the Lakers can remain healthy, the path to the championship this season is still daunting with the Grizzlies, Warriors, Suns, and Nuggets representing a fierce gauntlet of serious strong teams to overcome.

With the West so wide open, are the new-look L.A. Lakers contenders or pretenders? Could they realistically win their 18th NBA championship this season? Let’s look closer at the pros and cons of a Lakers championship.

---

The Pros

The chances the Lakers win the NBA championship this season start with a healthy and rested LeBron James and Anthony Davis, much like they did back in 2020 when the Lakers dominated the bubble to win their 18th title.

The brilliant roster makeover engineered by Rob Pelinka at the trade deadline transformed a poorly constructed and incomplete Lakers roster into a deep and diverse team with seven key difference-making players.
Besides superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the new-look Lakers backcourt of the future of D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves gives the team two elite scorers and playmakers who can play on or off the ball.

The Grizzlies saw firsthand the new offensive power the Lakers have with the Russell and Reaves backcourt as the Lakers’ due outscored the Grizzlies starting backcourt of Ja Morant and Desmond Bane 42–40 for the game.
The Lakers traded Westbrook and the ‘three-superstar model’ for Russell and Reaves and the ‘two-superstars-and-two-stars model.’ These four are now the Lakers core. The core four each scored over 20 points in Game 1.

The new-look Lakers roster goes beyond the core four. Pelinka brought in smart BBIQ role players who could be difference-makers and give coach Darin Ham different buttons to push to win close games in the playoffs.
Jarred Vanderbilt starts next to the core four as their lock down defender while Dennis Schröder and Rui Hachimura are the energy players off Ham’s bench. All three are difference makers who could win a game.

The Laker also have two wild card players in Malik Beasley and Mo Bamba who have the potential to have huge positive impact but will have to be brought along carefully and integrated into the rotation by Darvin Ham.
Malik Beasley gives the Lakers that feared high volume 3-point shooter for whom teams have to game plan while Mo Bamba gives Los Angeles a true backup center who can both protect the rim and stretch the floor.

Lakers have two healthy superstars, two elite combo guards, and three to five difference-makers who add elite size, shooting, and defense. They have a starting lineup and 7-10 man rotation that could win a championship.

---

The Cons

The biggest reason to question whether the Los Angeles Lakers can win an NBA championship is obviously the health of their often injured superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis, both of whom have in and out this year.

Frankly, the only reason the Lakers are the 7th seed rather than 2nd seed is their terrible 2–10 start and parade of untimely injuries to LeBron James and Anthony Davis that would have derailed the team but for league parity.
Talent wise, this Lakers team lealthy is probably the most dangerous 7th seed in the history of the NBA. They’re playing as well as any team in the league and have an elite starting lineup and deep and diverse bench

Now that the Lakers are finally healthy, can they realistically stay that way? Superstars James and Davis have missed large periods of the season due to foot injuries as have point guards D’Angelo Russell and Dennis Schröder
We already saw another Anthony Davis injury scare late in the first half of Game 1 where he sufferred what looked like a major injury only to come back in the second half. This is second time this has happened this month.

While it’s no slam dunk that James and Anthony will be able to stay healthy, the other negative is how little time key rotation players on the roster have had to play together due to ongoing injuries and late date of the trades.
If there is another negative to the Lakers new-look lineup, it’s that winning might be more realistic next season after the team had more time to gell and learn how to win together as a team. Hard to do that late in the season.

While the Lakers have the superstars and supporting cast to win the NBA championship, their greatest challenge will be for their superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis to remain healthy throughout the entire playoffs.

---

The Odds

After their big Game 1 win, the Los Angeles Lakers have the 6th lowest odds to win the 2022–23 NBA championship behind the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns, Philadelphia 76ers, and Denver Nuggets.

Realistically, the Lakers at this point would likely be underdogs to any of those five teams. The challenge for them as a relatively newly formed team will be to elevate the level of their play as they move from series to series.
We will find out soon whether the healthy new-look Lakers can build the necessary continuity and chemistry to beat established championship caliber teams like the Milwaukee Bucks or Golden State Warriors.

The Lakers’ next big test will come tomorrow night when they will have an opportunity to kick the disappointed Memphis Grizzies in the face and set up a first round sweep and get valuable time off before the second round.
The playoff are an accelerating series of tests from game to game and from series to series. The opponents get better, the challenges greater, the path tougher, and winning harder each round. Teams grow into champions.

The Lakers looked great winning Game 1. They have found a formula that works and need to repeat it. Approach every game as if it was win or go home. Do not waste series, games, possessiions. One down, fifteen to go.