Lakerholics

The headlines will say the Lakers and Warriors second round matchup is about LeBron James and Steph Curry but the truth is Los Angeles cannot win this series unless Anthony Davis takes the torch from LeBron James.

While 38-year old LeBron James and 35-year old Steph Curry are the perfect storyline, what’s likely to determine who wins this series is whether the Warriors are able to prevent 30-year old Anthony Davis from dominating. After two disappointing injury plagued seasons, Anthony Davis has finally gotten back to the superstar level he was when L.A. won the championship in the bubble and now appears ready to take the torch from LeBron James.

Frankly, it’s a shame this series is a second round matchup and not the conference finals as there are so many great storylines besides LeBron and Steph, including Davis vs. Green and D’Angelo Russell vs. his old team. Frankly, the NBA has to be elated at how these playoffs have turned out. The parity is rampant, the games terrific, the stars super, the matchups elite. The last 8 teams standing amazingly includes teams from all 8 seeds.

What makes this matchup exciting is both the Lakers and Warriors are finally healthy and playing their best basketball of the season with deep. versatile rosters that each featuring a pair of Hall of Fame superstars.
The Warriors opened as slight favorites despite the Lakers winning the season series 3–1, including the last three games. Most analysts favor the Warriors because of Steph Curry and their championship pedigree.

Anthony Davis and the Lakers must come out with the same ‘Game 7’ approach versus the Warriors they used in Game 6 against the Grizzlies. Their goal tonight is to steal Game 1 from an exhausted Warriors team.
Whether they can steal home court from the Warriors will depend on how dominant Anthony Davis is at both ends of the court in the next 2 games. To beat the Warriors, the Lakers need AD to take the torch from LeBron.

Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers must dominate the paint on both ends to pull off a surprise upset of the Golden State Warriors tonight on their way to winning the series in 6 games like they did to Memphis.

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Anthony Davis on Defense

In the Los Angeles Lakers’ 40-point close-out thrashing of the Memphis Grizzlies Friday night, Anthony Davis showed current DPOY Jaren Jackson, Jr. and the rest of the NBA who’s really the league’s best defensive player.

Davis’ defense in the Memphis series was a master class in how to shut down the other team’s defense by taking away anything in the paint or at the rim and turning it into fast break points and points off turnovers. Against the Grizzlies, Anthony Davis averaged 10.5 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, and 1.3 steals. He also posted a stellar individual defensive rating of 100.4, which is the lowest of centers who played at least 20 minutes per game.

As a team, the Lakers’ 102.8 playoff defensive rating for the Grizzlies series makes them the second best defensive team in the playoffs. The Warriors posted a 109.3 5th ranked defensive rating for their first round series.
The Lakers 38.3 defensive rebounds and 9.2 blocks per game were 1st in the playoffs and their 7.0 steals in a game were 7th best. The Lakers averaged 16.2 stocks per game in the first round, which is also ranked 1st in NBA.

Davis and the Lakers will look to physically dominate the Warriors in the paint on defense. Davis and James will defend non-shooters Looney and Green so they can both roam around and play free safeties on defense. Vanderbilt, Russell, and Reaves will guard Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins. The Lakers may switch everything to keep Warriors’ shooters in front of them with Davis expanding his drop coverage and hedging and trapping.

Despite criticism for being injury prone, Anthony Davis has established that, when healthy, he is clearly the best defensive center in the league. No other center can defend all five positions at all three levels like he can.

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Anthony Davis on Offense

Anthony Davis transforming himself from a jump-shot loving power forward to a full-time low post monster is going to have a dramatic impact on the Los Angeles Lakers’ offense against the Warriors and other teams.

Davis dominating opposing centers in the paint generates big advantages for the Lakers in points in the paint and made free throws, which is part of their formula for winning despite losing the 3-point shooting differential. The new-look Lakers offensive goal is to have Davis touch the ball on every possession. For his part, Anthony has looked to attack immediately when he gets the ball, which has made it harder for teams to double team him.

The trade for D’Angelo Russell and the emergence of Austin Reaves have made Anthony Davis’ transformation possible, giving the Lakers’ two point guards who can score and set up teammates for easy buckets in the paint. Russell and Reaves both have crafty handles and offensive games that are perfect fits for optimizing Anthony Davis strengths are a big man whether bounce passes off of pick-and-rolls or dunked lobs off drive-and-dishes.

With Russell’s and Reaves’ emergence and Davis’ ascension, James no longer has to be the team’s leading scorer or playmaker. Now he can focus on whatever the team needs to win, be it scoring, playmaking, or defense.
These changes make the Los Angeles Lakers’ offense a more dangerous as they now have four players who are all elite at attacking the paint in Davis, James, Russell, and Reaves as well as make plays for their teammates.

For the Los Angeles Lakers to succeed, Anthony Davis needs to take the torch from LeBron James and become the consistent go-to scorer his team can count on to be dominant in the paint and from the free throw line.

The 40-point whipping the Los Angeles Lakers dropped to close out the Memphis Grizzlies Friday night was a warning to the rest of the NBA that their new roster could be even better than the bubble champs’ roster.

It’s obviously premature to compare the current Lakers squad, which just posted its first series win in the 2023 playoffs, with the 2020 roster that went 16–5 on the way to the team’s 17th NBA championship in the bubble. But the similarities almost scream to be compared as both teams boasted healthy and available superstars in James and Davis, peaked right at the start of the playoffs, and totally dominated their first round opponents.

The challenge for the new-look Lakers, who’ve only had a couple of months together, is to grow and get better every series and develop the chemistry, and continuity needed to legitimately compete for an NBA championship. They understood when they madeover the roster at the trade deadline that it was likely to be next season before the team had enough time together to compete but the changes have been so good they’ve raised expectations.

While the new-look Lakers still have a long way to go, let’s look at how the two rosters compare when it comes to the superstars, starting lineups, and roster depth and what roster upgrades the Lakers still need to make.

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Comparing Superstars

NBA championships are about superstars and the big question is how do LeBron James and Anthony Davis compare to the version of themselves that won the 2020 championship in the bubble two and a half years ago?

LeBron James at 38-years old has definitely lost some athleticism since October 2020 but as we saw from Friday night’s big win, he can still take his game to another level, although not as frequently or as often as before. Back in the bubble, James was a top-5 player. Today, he’s probably slipped to a top-10 player and his role has changed because the Lakers no longer need him to post 30/20/10 every game. They’ve diversified their offense.

Anthony Davis healthy at 30-years old has evolved into a more effective and impactful version of the player he was in the bubble. He’s traded his power forward position and love of jump shot to play center in the paint. And like LeBron, Davis does not have to score 30 points and pull down 20 rebounds per game for the Lakers to win. The difference is he’s become the best overall rebounder, rim protector, and defensive anchor in the league.

While Father Time has slowed James down, Davis has become even more dominant in the paint. As long as they are healthy, LeBron James and Anthony Davis are still the premier superstar duo in the entire NBA.

2023 Superstars = 2020 Superstars
–2023 James < 2020 James.
-2023 Davis > 2020 Davis.

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Comparing Starting Lineups

There’s a good argument the Lakers’ current starting lineup of D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Anthony Davis could be better than that of the 2020 bubble championship team.

The first round starters for the Lakers’ 2020 championship team were Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and JaVale Mcgee. They had 134.4 OffRtg, 102.3 DefRtg, and 32.0 NetRtg. The current Lakers roster has only been together for two months compared to a full year for the 2020 roster but still posted a 113.2 OffRtg, 94.0 DefRtg, and 19.2 NetRtg, which should get better as they move on.

The major difference between the current Lakers’ starting lineup and the 2020 bubble lineup is D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves, combo guard who dramatically expand the team’s playmaking and 3-point shooting.
The Lakers other non-superstar starter is Jarred Vanderbilt, who starts at power forward and whose role is the team’s best perimeter defender who guards the opponent’s top scorer. Against Memphis, that was Ja Morant.

While 2023 James and Davis may be close to their 2020 versions, Russell, Reaves, and Vanderbilt are a more complementary trio of players to start alongside the Lakers’ superstars than Caldwell-Pope, Green, and McGee.

2023 Starters >>> 2020 Starters
–2023 Russell > 2020 Caldwell-Pope
-2023 Reaves > 2020 Green
-2023 James < 2020 James
-2023 Vanderbilt > 20 Morris
-2023 Davis > 2020 Davis

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Comparing Roster Depth

While the current Lakers starters are a better starting lineup than the 2020 title starters, the bubble championship bench was deeper and stronger than the current Lakers bench, which has struggled some in the playoffs.

The Lakers essentially played a 10-man rotation in the first round of the 2020 bubble championship with team’s main backups being Rajon Rondo, Alex Caruso, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kyle Kuzma, and Dwight Howard.
The Lakers’ current backups include Dennis Schroder, Malik Beasley, Troy Brown, Jr., Rui Hachimura, and Wenyen Gabriel, although Ham narrowed the rotation to 8 players by taking Beasley and Brown out of the rotation.

The Lakers’ bubble reserves averaged 39.3 points per game, spread over all five backups. The Lakers’ current reserves are averaging 39.7 points per game with Schroder and Hachimura producing most of the points.
In head-to-head comparisons, Rondo, Caruso, and Howard are probably better backups than Schroder, Beasley, and Gabriel. Similarly, Hachimura and Brown, Jr. are likely better backups than Kuzma and Horton-Tucker.

While both lineups have their strengths, the 2020 bubble championship reserves are probably slightly better than the Lakers’ current reserves, although there’s still a chance other reserves could surprise everybody.

2023 Back-Ups < 2020 Back-Ups
-2023 Schroder < 2020 Rondo
-2023 Beasley < 2020 Caruso
-2023 Troy Brown, Jr. > 2023 Horton-Tucker
-2023 Hachimura > 2020 Kuzma
-2023 Gabriel < 2020 Howard.

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And The Winner Is…

As promising as the new-look Lakers 2023 roster has been, they’ll have to win an NBA championship before there can be any conversation whether they are better than the purple-and-gold’s 2020 bubble championship team.

If this version of the Lakers can somehow grow enough on the fly to win the franchise’s league leading 18th NBA championship, they would have to at the least be considered to be the equal of the 2020 bubble champs.
It’s more likely the Lakers will have to wait until next season when they add a legitimate 3&D wing starter and quality backup rim protector before they actually have a roster that’s better than the 2020 championship team.

With the Warriors beating the Kings in Sacramento this afternoon, the Lakers’ current roster will now have to go through the current NBA champions to win the title this season, a challenging gauntlet at best.
In the Lakers favor is 4 days off and a history of matching up pretty well with the Dubs this year, having won the last three of the four games between the two teams this season, although the personnel has varied.

In the end, what’s not to love about 38-year old LeBron James again having to go through 35-year old Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors to lead his Los Angeles Lakers to their league leading 18th NBA championship.

The Lakers are alarmingly losing the LeBron James minutes and rookie coach Darvin Ham is not helping the situation by asking LeBron James and Rui Hachimura to play center versus Jaren Jackson, Jr. and Xavier Tillman.

In this new era of NBA parity, the Lakers and Grizzlies are evenly matched, which puts enormous pressure on Lakers’ rookie head coach Darvin Ham as one bad substitution or poor rotation could cost the team a playoff win.
That’s exactly what we saw last night when, with 4:10 left in the 3rd quarter and Lakers down by 1, Darvin Ham pulled Anthony Davis and went with a 5-player lineup of Schroder, Reaves, Brown, Jr., James, and Hachimura.

One minute and 29 seconds later, at 2:41, a panicked Darvin Ham put Anthony Davis back in the game but it was too late as the Grizzlies then led by 8 points and were able to increase that lead to 18 points by end of 3rd.
Unfortunately, this was not an isolated incident as Tayler Jenkins has often taken advantage of Darvin Ham’s using James and Hachimura as backup center by making sure Jackson, Jr. was on the court whenever AD rested.

So heading into a ‘must win’ Game 6 on Friday night, Darvin Ham needs to do a better job tightening his rotations, winning the LeBron James minutes, and getting better rim protection when Anthony Davis goes to the bench.

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Tightening Lakers’ Rotations

After losing Game 5, Darvin Ham promised the Lakers would go all out, play their superstars more, and tighten their rotations to win Game 6 and end their first round series with the Grizzlies in Los Angeles Friday night.

The above charts shows the average minutes per game for each player currently in the Lakers rotation for the regular season, the playoffs, and a recommended projected minutes per game for the rest of the playoffs.
The new rotation represents a narrowing of the rotation from 10 players to 9 players and a needed reallocation of 19.0 minutes from Brown and Beasley to James, Davis, Russell, Vanderbilt, Schroder, and Bamba.

Ham needs to narrow the rotation to 9 players, replace Beasley with Bamba who can provide both backup rim protection and floor spacing, and give more minutes to James, Davis, Russell, and other stalwart contributors.

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Winning LeBron James Minutes

Since LeBron James signed with the Los Angeles Lakers, he’s consistently led the Lakers in net rating. Lebron finished the regular season with a +4.6 net rating but has seen his net rating in the playoffs drop down to a -1.5.

Part of the problem is James is still struggling to recover from the foot injury that sidelined him for 13 games. While LeBron had MVP level plays to win Game 4, he totally ran out of gas and was unable to finish Game 5.
Whether James can recover fully and soon enough to be a difference maker in Game 6 could be in question because LeBron will only have one day of rest and covery time before Friday’s game back at Crypto.com Arena.

Two things Darvin Ham can do to help win the LeBron James minutes is to not play him without at least two of Davis, Reaves, Russell, and Bamba in the lineup and not play him in a lineup with he or Hachimura at center.

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Better Backup Rim Protection

One of the more preplexing personnel decisions by Los Angeles Lakers’ rookie head coach Darvin Ham has been his decision to give the backup center minutes to power forwards LeBron James and Rui Hachimura.

Anthony Davis is playing 100% of his 38.0 minutes per game in the playoffs at center. That leaves 10 disastrous minutes each game that Darvin Ham goes small and plays either LeBron James or Rui Hachimura at center.
The Lakers are getting killed whenever AD is on the bench and LeBron or Rui plays center because Tayler Jenkins immediaetly takes advantage by making sure Jaren Jackson, Jr. is in the game when the Lakers go small.

Coach Darvin Ham needs to give Mo Bamba the backup center minutes rather than going small with LeBron James or Rui Hachimura at center for both this series and future series against teams with bigger front courts.

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How Much Can Darvin Ham Grow?

Darvin Ham has done a terrific job as the rookie head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers, especially considering the complications of coaching Russell Westbrook and the chaos caused by injuries to LeBron and AD.

Slowly but surely, Ham has been able to reverse many of his early rookie decisions and has shown impressive management and leadership skills as he continues to grow and prosper as the Los Angeles Lakers’ head coach.
Word is already out that Ham and his staff are actively reevaluating their lineups with a goal of narrowing the rotation, winning the LeBron James minutes, and getting better more consistent backup rim protection.

The moves Darvin Ham and his staff make to stablize and optimize their lineups and rotations could not only put the Lakers in position to win their 18th NBA championship this season but also start building a new dynasty.

Nothing’s been easy for the Lakers this season. They needed overtime to beat the Timbewolves in the Play-In to get into the playoffs and overtime last night to take a commanding 3–1 lead over the troublesome Grizzlies.

The new-look Lakers are no longer just superstars James and Davis and a bunch of no name role players. The emergence of Reaves and trades for Russell, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, and Beasley have transformed the roster.
Last night’s game confirmed what we have been watching during this series: the Lakers have a deep and diverse roster that no longer has to rely on LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing like superstars to win games.

While LeBron’ James stole the show with his game-tying layup with 0.8 seconds left in regulation and game-sealing layup plus free throw with 29.4 seconds left in overtime, multiple other Lakers players were also heroes.
Reaves’ 23-points were game high and his +12 plus/minus second best. Schroder scored 12 points with a team-best +24 plus/minus. And Russell’s three straight threes to fuel the fourth quarter comeback were critical.

The contributions from the non-superstars have actually been what has given the Lakers their commanding 3–1 lead over the Grizzlies. It’s why the Lakers have won 3 of 4 playoff games and are top-4 in DefRtg and NetRtg.
Lakers best Playoff OffRtsg were Hachimura 116.4, Russell 114.8, Schroder 112.2; best Playoff DefRtg Schroder 99.5, Reaves 100.0, and Davis’ 102.8; and best Playoff NetRtg Schroder +12.7, Hachimura +11.7, Reaves +10.7.

While James and Davis are available, both are slightly hobbled by injuries and constantly dodging possible reinjury which makes the emergence of Reaves, Russell, Hachimura, and Vanderbilt a life saver for the Lakers.

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The Lakers dilemma has been their inconsistency as teams and as players. Some of it is because of the lack of continuity and chemistry due to injuries and new players. The only cure is more on court minutes and reptitions.

James and Davis still seem to be struggling some with their foot injuries and almost taking turns carrying the team as they try to figure things out. James and Davis together appeared in only 36 of the Lakers 82 games.
That the Lakers were able to win 3 of their 4 games against the Grizzlies despite LeBron James posting a negative -2.2 net rating is a testament to the trade deadline roster makeover and defense anchored by Anthony Davis.

While the Lakers have in some ways struggled to adjust to playoff mode, the good news is they have still figured out how to win. It may not have been easy or pretty but in the end, they found a way to bring home a W.
While there have been calls for Mo Bamba and Lonnie Walker to be given an opportunity, Darvin Ham and his coaching staff have done an excellent job so far getting the team ready and motivated to play at a high level.

The monster test for these inconsistent Lakers will be closing out the Grizzlies Wednesday night and hopefully getting a few days off before having to face the winner of the Kings and Warriors first round series.
Will they ride the momentum of last night’s big win and come in ready and motivated to complete the 4–1 Gentlemen’s Sweep of the Grizzlies or will they show up fat, flat, and happy and allow the Grizzlies to stay alive.

The Lakers need to recognize they were just a missed layup by LeBron from being tied 2–2 with the Grizzlies. Lakers need to play their best game of the series tomorrow night and complete Gentlemen’s Sweep.

While the #7 seed Lakers have stolen home court and have a 2 -1 lead over the #2 seed Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs, 38-year old superstar LeBron James has, by his own standards, gotten off to a slow playoffs start.

James averaged 28.9/8.3/6.8 and shot 50.0/32.1/76.8% in regular season. In the playoffs, he averaged 28.6/9.0/7.2 and shot 49.5/33.5/73.9%. In 3 games against Memphis, he averaged 24.7/10.7/4.3 and shot 50.8/20.0/66.7%.
Of special concern are his reduced scoring and playmaking. James is averaging 3.9 fewer points and 2.9 fewer assists per game while shooting 13.5 and 3.2 percentage points lower on his 3-point shots and free throws.

The greatest concern is LeBron James’ team worst -5.3 plus/minus. The Lakers have always won the LeBron James minutes. Their problem this series has been losing the minutes when LeBron James is in the game.
So far, Davis, Russell, Reaves, Vanderbilt, and Hachimura have posted postive plus/minus and net ratings while James, Brown, Schroder, and Gabriel have struggled and posted negative plus/minus and net ratings.

While three games is a small sample size, this is the playoffs and frankly, we have not yet seen Playoff LeBron. We’ve seen glimpses in a specific play or series of plays but not the King literally taking over a game or series.
There are some who think James may be taking a deliberate step back to give co-superstar Anthony Davis the opportunity to step up and take the torch from the King and become the team alpha and face of the franchise.

The big question is whether James had just been coasting and filling in what he perceives the Lakers need as the series proceeds or whether his slow start is a sign that he might not be able to be a superstar every night.
Everybody knows Father Time will eventully defeat even the King. We’ve seen the start of it with the more numerous injuries and longer recovery time to get back on the court. Could the next step be part-time superstar?

We’ll get an answer to that question when the Lakers play the Grizzlies in Game 4 Monday night in L.A. The Lakers have essentially stolen home court and taken a 2–1 lead without LeBron James playing like a superstar.
Game 4 is when superstars like LeBron James take over 2–1 playoff series and transform them into 3–1 series headed for a ‘Gentlemen’s Sweep.’ Game 4’s are when even part-time superstars put on their Superman capes.

In the end, there’s no way the 7th seed Los Angeles Lakers are going to beat the 2nd seed Memphis Grizzlies unless they win the LeBron James minutes for the rest of this series. Lakers need LeBron James the superstar to win.