Lakerholics

After finishing with just 8 points and a team-worst plus/minus of -25 in Game 1 of the West Finals, mercurial Lakers’ point Guard D’Angelo Russell found himself back on the court later that night trying to find his stroke.

A big part of the Lakers late season finish and first two round wins, Russell struggled mightily in Game 1 and the Nuggets’ coaches and players publicly boasted how they shut him down and made him unplayable in this series. It’s easy to understand why the Nuggets would like the Lakers to not play Russell, who along with Reaves has been one of the four core starters who were behind the team’s late season finish and early playoff heroics.

On the other hand, you would think that teams facing the Lakers would stop poking the bear. It’s stupid to give the Lakers bulletin board material or make comments to wake up and motivate D’Angelo Russell for Game 2. Darvin Ham and the Lakers are not going to bench D’Angelo Russell. They need his playmaking and shooting. What they’re going to do is figure out ways to get him going because he’s a critical component to their winning.

The critics and doubters always point to Russell as the Lakers’ weakest defender but they don’t realize it’s his offensive prowess and his elite shooting and playmaking that make D’Angelo valuable, not his defense. D’Angelo Russell averaged 18.6/3.4/5.6 in 32.8 mpg for regular season while shooting 49.4/42.6/72.2% with a +/- of +8.9. In the playoffs, he’s averaging 15.1/3.0/4.8 in 31.1 mpg while shooting 44.0/33.3/77.3% with a +/- of +2.3.

One of the strengths of the Lakers post trade deadline is the army of guards who are outstanding at using pick-and-rolls to get into the paint and put their defenders in jail for easy floaters or lobs to the rim for easy dunks. The combination of LeBron James, Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, and Dennis Schroder being able to get where they want in the paint has now transformed the Lakers half-court offense into a clutch playoff weapon.

The Lakers and D’Angelo Russell desperately need the him to deliver a monster game tonight to show why the team should re-sign him to a new contract and why he’s the right fit as the team’s point guard of the future.

Rookie head coach Darvin Ham has been on a hot streak since the Lakers remade their roster at the trade deadline where every single roster move he’s made has worked out beautifully. He’s now 8 games away from a chip.

As a rookie coach, Darvin Ham has done an impressive job creating winning starting lineups and rotations as the Lakers dominated down the stretch in the regular season and throughout the first two playoff rounds. While making roster decisions, Ham has maintained an open mind both to Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office and his own coaching staff. His rosters moves so far have been perfect mix of evolving and adjusting.

With the underdog Lakers opening the Western Conference Finals against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets tomorrow night in Denver, L.A. Ham has yet another opportunity to make an impactful change in his starting lineup. While Jarred Vanderbilt started 11 of the Lakers’ 12 playoff games, Darvin Ham turned to Dennis Schroder in Game 6 of the Warriors series because Vanderbilt’s lack of shooting gravity allowed Golden State to play 5-on-4.

With the Lakers needing to go big to match up with the Nuggets’ front court of 6′ 11″ Jokic, 6′ 8″ Gordon, and 6′ 10″ Porter, the time’s now come for Ham to replace Jarred Vanderbilt in the starting lineup with Rui Hachimura.

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The Vanderbilt Problem

As impactful as Vanderbilt has been at times during the first two rounds of the playoffs, there have also been matchups where his skills have not been critical and his lack of shooting gravity has derailed the Lakers offense.

While Jarred Vanderbilt could probably do a good job defending Michael Porter, Jr., his lack of threat as a shooter is going to allow the Nuggets to ignore him completely and play 5-on-4 when the Lakers are on offense. Right now, Jarred is averaging 5.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.0 blocks in 17.2 mpg while shooting 40.7/25.0/66.7% for the playoffs. His playoffs plus/minus is +0.3 and playoff net rating is -0.7.

Should the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Denver Nuggets and get to the NBA Finals, it’s possible that Vanderbilt might be a better fit against the Boston Celtics with their two big wing scorers than bigger and slower Hachimura. Ham seems to have no problem with not having a permanent fifth starter, opting to deploy a strategy that uses that last starting spot in these playoffs to better matchup with whatever team the Lakers are playing against.

The Lakers saw in Game 6 vs. Warriors how their offense was dramatically more efficient with five players who can stretch the floor and cannot be left unguarded in the corner. The Lakers cannot start Vando against Denver.

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The Hachimura Solution

Rui Hachimura has been one of the Lakers most impactful bench players. He’s become a staple in the Lakers’ rotation. He’s fifth on the team in points and rebounds per game and first in field goal and 3-point shot percentage.

But the time’s now come for Darvin to replace Vanderbilt in the starting lineup with Hachimura, who has the defensive size and length to bother Porter, Jr. and offensive shot making skills to make him work hard on D. Starting Hachimura should dramatically improve the Lakers’ offensive efficiency as Rui is probably the team’s most consistent long-range and midrange shooter, hitting 57.0% from the field and 53.3% from three.

Rui does not have Vando’s quick feet and lateral mobility and is not as good a perimeter defender but he’s a little bigger and longer than Jarred and more physical in the paint. And he’s another world entirely offensively.
Rui is averaging 11.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 0.6 assists in 21.2 mpg while shooting 57.0/53.3/66.7% with +1.3 plus/minus and +1.8 net rating. The Lakers’ five top scorers are James, Davis, Russell, Reaves, and Hachimura.

Starting Hachimura dramatically upgrades the Lakers’ starting lineup because it now gives superstars James and Davis three other starters averaging double digits and capable of dropping 20 points in any game.

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The Joker Defense

The Denver Nuggets will be by far the toughest opponent the Lakers have yet faced in these playoffs. They not only boast two-time MVP Nikola Jokic but also roll out a lineup with five players who can shoot the three ball.

The big question for the Lakers is how will the defend Nikola? The media consensus is the Lakers cannot allow Jokic to both be a big time scorer and playmaker. They have to take one of those away from the Denver Nuggets. Strategically, Ham and the Lakers’ #1 defense is based on Anthony Davis being free to roam and play free safety, something he won’t be able to do if he has to defend Nikola Jokic. So why not have Hachimura defend Joker?

The best solution might be to let Anthony Davis guard Aaron Gordon, the lowest volume and percentage 3-point shooter of the Denver starters. That will allow him to roam and help Hachimura defend the rim against Jokic. This game was always going to be a battle between the Lakers’ #1 playoff defense and the Nuggets’ #1 playoff offense. Having Rui Hachimura guard Nikola Jokic could be the key to the Lakers defense winning the series.

Hachimura has the size and length to be the primary defender on Nikola Jokic to free Anthony Davis to be free to roam and protect the Lakers’ paint and rim and the 3-point and midrange shooting game to boost the offense.

The Lakers may have found the formula for optimizing LeBron James at this point in his career by surrounding him with an army of smart, young, talented, team-first players who could be his best supporting cast ever.

The Lakers making the conference finals stunned the basketball world and left the late-to-the-party pundits and need-to-see-it-to-believe-it doubters eating their false words but not realizing they haven’t seen anything yet. What Lakers’ critics and haters don’t see is Pelinka not only put together a roster than could help LeBron James win a ring at 38. He’s also assembled an army of young talent that perfectly complements today’s LeBron James.

The new-look roster Rob created was not a short-term cobbled-together shot to win LeBron one last championship at 38. It was a masterclass move to build a roster that could end James time as a Laker with a dynasty.
In what should be the twilight of his career, LeBron James is still a top-10 player capable of carrying his team to a championship, especially when surrounded on the Lakers by the best supporting cast ever in his career.

The Los Angeles Lakers surround superstar LeBron James with 7 players, who can be broken down into four tiers, starting with the Second Superstar, the Starting Guards, the Starting Forwards, and the Backup Guards.

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1. The Second Superstar

Heading that army of talent surrounding LeBron is 30-year old superstar Anthony Davis, who‘s finally taken the torch from James as the team’s most valuable player and reclaimed his standing as the league’s best defender.

Finally healthy and arguably playing even better than during the Lakers’ 2020 Bubble Championship run, Davis is #1 in the playoffs in defensive and total rebounds and blocked shots while anchoring the Lakers #1 defense. Davis is averaging 21.2/14.1/2.7 in 36.9 mpg shooting 53.0/27.3/83.8% with +7.5 plus/minus. Meanwhile, LeBron has been able to coast, averaging 23.4/10.0/5.3 in 37.4 mpg shooting 49.1/26.3/76.2% with +1.7 plus/minus.

While LeBron James is likely just a top-10 rather than top-5 NBA superstar, the new rim-and-paint focused Anthony Davis is healthy, engaged, and dominating as the best center and defensive player in the entire league.

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2. The Starting Guards

After trading Westbrook and Beverley, the Lakers’ new starting backcourt has been 27-year old D’Angelo Russell and 25-year old Austin Reaves, a pair of young, do-everything combo guards who can shoot, pass, and defend.

The Russell and Reaves duo has not only given the Lakers two young lead guards who have size, length, and talent to score at all three levels, rebound at both ends of the court, and make plays for themselves and teammates. In the playoffs, Russell is averaging 15.7/3.3/5.0 in 31.6 mpg shooting 44.5/34.7/77.3% with +4.6 plus/minus while Austin Reaves is averaging 15.4/4.8/4.3 in 35.1 mpg shooting 43.4/38.7/85/7% with +6.8 plus/minus.

Two superstars and two legitimate stars almost guarantees the Los Angeles Lakers will have at least four players with double digit points every game. The Lakers hope Russell and Reaves will be their backcourt of the future.

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3. The Starting Forwards

By trading for pair of 6′ 8″ power forwards in 24-year old Jarred Vanderbilt and 25-year old Rui Hachimura, the Los Angeles Lakers were able to finally fill their long-time need for taller defenders to guard bigger wing scorers.

Vanderbilt and Hachimura have given the Lakers a pair of ‘starting’ quality forwards with totally different skill sets. Vanderbilt is an legitimate elite wing defender while Hachimura has great potential as a 2-way 3&D wing. Vanderbilt is averaging 5.3/3.7/0.9 in 17.2 mpg shooting 40.7/25.0/66.7% with -0.3 plus/minus as a starter while Hachimura is averaging 11.3/3.6/0.6 in 21.2 mpg shooting 57.0/53.3/8.3% with +1.3 plus/minus off the bench.

Heading into Denver, there’s a possibility Darvin Ham may once again make a change to the starting lineup. Going big and playing Hachimura instead of Schroder would make great sense against the Denver Nuggets.

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4. The Backup Guards

One of the Lakers’ greatest strengths in the playoffs so far has been the depth and versatility of their bench, especially their backcourt where a duo of ‘starting’ quality backup guards have empowered the team’s bench.

Steady contributions from Dennis Schroder and the re-emergence of Lonnie Walker after losing his starting job due to injury have given the Lakers consistent defensive chops and offensive firepower off the bench. Schroder is averaging 7.5/1.7/2.9 in 24.3 mpg shooting 41.1/30.8/84.6% with +4.5 plus/minus while Walker is averaging 6.8/0.9/0.9 in 13.4 mpg shooting 52.3/39.1/75.0% with +1.0 plus/minus. Walker was Memphis Game 4 hero.

The Lakers’ backcourt depth and diversity due to Dennis Schroder and Lonnie Walker IV was a big factor in their beating the second seed Grizzlies and defending champion Warriors in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

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The Los Angeles Lakers remain slight underdogs to the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals, which start tomorrow night in Denver. L.A. will be looking to finish this road series in six games like rounds 1 and 2.

That means the Lakers must somehow steal one of the first two games in Denver. They flew to Denver last night to get a jump on getting acclimated to the altitude. The Nuggets are surely the best team the Lakers have faced. The Nuggets not only have 2-time MVP Nikola Jokic but also boast a lethal offensive team that shoots 3’s at 37.9%, 2nd best among all playoff teams. This series will undoubtedly come down to Anthony Davis vs. Nikola Jokic.

Should the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Denver Nuggets, they would then likely meet the Boston Celtics in what could be the greatest Finals in NBA history as both franchises are currently tied with 17 championships each. The Lakers have already pulled off the best comeback in NBA history, going from winning a Play-In game to taking down the favored #2 Grizzlies and defending champ Warriors is six games and making the conference finals.

Should the Los Angeles Lakers stretch their string of playoff series wins on the road to four and beat their rival Boston Celtics for the franchise’s 18th NBA championship, LeBron would likely consider this his best roster ever.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis rejected claims by Lakers doubters and critics who want to put a ceiling on their season and confirmed they’re not satisfied just playing with house money. They want another championship.

That may be presumptuous for a #7 seed that had to finish the season on 41–29 tear and win an overtime Play-In game to make the playoffs but after upsetting the Grizzlies and Warriors, the Lakers are now getting greedy. When asked if the Lakers were happy to be playing with ‘house money,’ LeBron James and Anthony Davis dismissed the idea they’d be satisfied with doing that and reiterated their only goal was another championship.

The idea LeBron James and Anthony Davis should be happy to be where they are and satisfied that they have made it to the conference finals is contrary to everything we know about what winning means to them.
“That’s y’all expectation,” Davis said. “Our expectations inside are way higher than showing up to the Western Conference finals. Want to shock the world. … Me and Bron want another one, now it’s time to go get it.”

Even after dominating both the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round and the champion Golden State Warriors in the second round in six games, the Los Angeles Lakers are still being universally underrated and disrespected. Despite having the #1 rated defense in the entire playoffs, the Lakers are still underdogs to the Boston Celtics, who are current favorites to win their 18th NBA championship, and Denver Nuggets, whom the Lakers play next.

After starting out 2–10, the Lakers were essentially written off by everyone as they fell to 13th in the West with a 25–31 record 13 games behind the top seeded Denver Nuggets as they approached the February 9 trade deadline. Then came the big trades by Rob Pelinka that saved the Lakers season. They traded Westbrook, a first round pick, and 5 five unwanted players for 5 rotation players in Hachimura, Russell, Vanderbilt, Beasley, and Bamba.

The trade for 5 new players combined with the emergence of Austin Reaves as a secondary star and the return to the rotation of Lonnie Walker IV have transformed the Lakers from lottery team to a championship contender. The new-look Lakers now have a dramatically improved starting lineup and a deep and diverse 8-player rotation that’s growing and getting better every game. The Lakers have 5 players averaging double digits in playoffs.

The NBA media has been slow to react to the Lakers’ playoff dominance and it will likely take another road upset by the Lakers to start the West finals before the pundits and prognosticators become ‘woke’ on the Lakers. The Lakers will follow the same plan for winning road series that worked in Memphis and San Francisco: Steal one of the two first home games in Denver and then sweep them in L.A. to take a commanding 3–1 lead.

Unlike the first two rounds, the Nuggets will be the Lakers’ first playoff opponent with an elite center in Nikola Jokic who can challenge Anthony Davis and who has the 3-point gravity to draw him away from the rim.
The Lakers will likely return to their usual starting lineup with defensive ace Jarred Vanderbilt although there’s also a possibility the Lakers might opt to go bigger by starting Rui Hachimura instead of Vanderbilt.

Strategically, Darvin Ham needs to have Anthony Davis’ mirror Nikola Jokic’s minutes. Lakers cannot allow Joker to go against a lineup without Anthony Davis. Lakers should play Bamba when AD goes to the bench.
The Lakers will hopefully be able to have Davis play Jokic 1-on-1 and turn him into a big scorer rather than a playmaker. They need to control him and make him one-dimensional. Davis is Lakers’ advantage over Jokic.

While the rest of the basketball world may not yet realize how good this Lakers’ roster could be, LeBron James and Anthony Davis both totally understand they’re just 8 more wins from their 18th NBA championship.

After missing an opportunity to close out the Warriors, Darvin Ham may now be forced to replace Jarred Vanderbilt as a starter due to his shooting struggles to give the Lakers a better chance to win Game 6 tomorrow night.

While Ham’s been amenable to midstream changes at the back end of his rotation, as evidenced by his promotion of Lonnie Walker IV, changing one of his starters while holding a 3–2 lead in the series would be a surprise. However, a 1-game lead on the defending champs is not what you could call a stranglehold on the series. The Lakers know they’re just a couple of losses to a hot shooting Golden State team away from elimination themselves.

There’s no question Vanderbilt has been struggling. He’s averaging just 3.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 0.8 assists in 16.6 minutes against the Warriors, down from 7.2 points, 3.8 rebound, and 1.2 assists in 19.8 mpg in Round 1. While he shot a respectable 54.8% from the field and 29.4% from three in Round 1, Vanderbilt’s shot and confidence have abandoned him this series. He’s shooting just 18.2% from the field and 18.2% from the 3-point line.

It was one thing when Vanderbilt could be hidden because Poole was a basket case but now that Jordan’s hitting open shots, Jarred’s become a liability the Warriors are taking advantage of to stifle the Lakers’ offense. It’s hard to win in the playoffs without a good start to the game and the second half and there no doubt that Vanderbilt’s team worst -10.0 net rating for this series has clearly cost the Lakers. Game 6 is the Lakers’ Game 7.

Darvin Ham can’t wait any longer to fix the Lakers’ starting lineup. Here are the three lineup changes he should consider to give the Lakers a better chance at defeating the Warriors and making the conference finals.

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1. Dennis Schroder for Jarred Vanderbilt

By the time a series reaches Game 6, winning comes down to execution. If the Lakers want to match up better against the Warriors’ small-ball lineups, Darvin Ham should start Dennis Schroder instead of Jarred Vanderbilt.

Schroder’s 113.0 offensive rating and +9.5 net rating are the best of any Lakers player in this series and his 103.5 defensive rating vs. the Warriors second best on the team. Dennis has been a spark plug at both ends.
He’s averaging 11.8 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game in 26.8 minutes per game while shooting 47.6% from the field, 33.3% from deep, and 77.8% from the line. His series plus minus of 24.0 is best on the team.

While it’s a small sample size, Anthony Davis, LeBron James, D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Dennis Schroder is the Lakers’ second most used 5-player lineup with the team’s third best +4.0 net rating for series. They’ve only logged 18 minutes in the series but they’re one of only three Lakers 5-player lineups with positive net ratings after the loss in Game 5. Suddenly, the stats and analytics are showing a much closer series.

Starting Dennis Schroder for Jarred Vanderbilt is probably Darvin Ham’s best option. Rather than gambling by going big, it makes sense to lean into what’s been one of the Lakers’ best 5-player lineups to start Game 6.

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2. Rui Hachimura for Jarred Vanderbilt

Should Lakers’ coach Darvin Ham decide to go big against the small ball Warriors in Game 6, then Rui Hachimura with his size and high percentage post-up shooting would be the logical starter to replace Jarred Vanderbilt.

Hachimura’s 104.3 offensive rating is second worst, his 107.1 defensive rating third best, and his -2.8 net rating 4th best on the team for the series. His elite shooting has been highly underutilized by the Lakers this series. Rui’s averaging just 7.5 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 0.6 assists per game in 16.9 minutes per game but shooting 60.9% from the field, 62.5% from deep, and 83.3% from the line. His series plus minus of -2.0 is 8th on the team.

There’s a risk challenging an opponent by going big when they go small or small when they go big. The Lakers would be gambling that Rui’s lethal shooting would be more valuable than his ability to guard smaller players. In many ways, Ham choosing to go big would be doubling-down on the Lakers’ ability to dominate the backboards and win points-in-the-paint and made-free-throws battles while helping reduce their 3-point differential.

Replacing Vanderbilt with Hachimura could be a bold and savvy move for a rookie head coach to make in a series where his team is ahead 3 -2 but in need of a huge win. The Warriors may have no answer for Lakers going big.

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3. Lonnie Walker IV for Jarred Vanderbilt

Should Coach Ham want to surprise everybody he could roll the dice on the fearless player who won Game 4 and try to catch lightning-in-a-bottle again by replacing Jarred Vanderbilt with Lakers’ supersub Lonnie Walker IV.

Walker’s 109.6 offensive rating is 3rd best on the Lakers and his 102.1 defensive rating and his +9.5 net rating best of any Lakers player in this series. Per the numbers and the eye test, Lonnie has been playing great.
He’s averaging 10.0 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game in 22.9 minutes per game while shooting 55.2% from the field, 30.8% from deep, and 100.0% from the line. His series plus minus of 24.0 is also team best.

As crazy as it may seem, there’s a good argument that Lonnie Walker IV might be exactly what the Lakers need to finish off the Warriors in Game 6. It’s not a fluke that he has the best defensive and net rating on the Lakers. Calling on Walker is not as big a gamble as going big with Hachimura but still riskier than going super small with Dennis Schroder, in whom Darvin has total confidence. Lonnie could be best answer if Dennis is not 100%.

While James, Davis, Russell, Reaves, and Walker have only played a total of 6 minutes together in this series, they posted a 120.0 offensive rating, a 92.9 defensive rating, and a team second best +27.1 net rating for the series.