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LakerTom wrote a new post
If you see Jeanie Buss wildly dancing and dropping dollars on TicToc like Ja Morant at Shotgun Willie’s, it’s because her L.A. Lakers have finally figured out how to compete for championships without having to pay luxury taxes.
If the Lakers are committed to bringing back and upgrading the core of last season’s conference finals team, the best roster building strategy to elevate the team to championship level could ironically be to hard cap themselves. Being hard capped at $169 million brings a set of advantages beyond paying zero luxury taxes. Hard capped teams can receive sign-and-trade players and have $16.6 million in exceptions to sign free agents under hard cap.
The Lakers’ ownership, front office, and coaching staffs should be proud of the team’s great finish last season and looking forward to even more this season. The Lakers still need a few roster tweaks to reach full potential.
They need to figure out what to do with D’Angelo Russell. Per Jovan Buha, the Lakers prefer to sign-and-trade him, wasive him, or re-sign him in that order. Fortunately, Pelinka did a great job giving the Lakers great options.The Lakers also need to decide who will be the fifth starter to replace Vanderbilt. Will it be Hachimura? Or do the Lakers trade for a starting center like Turner? Both of those solutions leave LeBron defending the 3. Ideally, the best solution might be to find a legitimate 3&D small forward so James can play power forward. The only problem is every team in the league is looking for that same exact player, an O.G. Annuby clone.
Besides avoiding luxury taxes, here are four reasons why the Lakers hard capping themselves offers the most flexibility and would be the best roster building strategy to upgrade the team to championship level this summer.
1. New CBA Favors Teams That Hard Cap
The NBA’s new CBA includes major changes designed to prevent teams like the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers from willingly paying whatever crazy and exorbitant luxury taxes it takes to win a championship.
At the heart of the change is a second luxury tax threshold set at $17.5 million above the $162 million tax line or $179.5 million. Exceed that tax threshold and a team loses its MLE and has other severe limitations. Overall, the penalties are so draconian that $179.5 million will likely become the ‘de facto’ hard cap going forward. The effect will be to even the total salaries a team can pay and further even the competitive landscape.
NBA teams who exceed a second $179 million luxury tax threshold will incur harsh competitive penalties like not being able to use their MLE, take back more salary in a trades, or sign candidates from the buyout market. The league also reduced the Taxpayer MLE to $5 million, meaning a team with salaries over the luxury tax apron will only have $5 million available to sign free agents for whom they do not have either Bird or Early Bird rights.
Overall, the new CBA was targeted directly at the rich owners of the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, and Brooklyn Nets who treated luxury tax penalties as just another necessary cost to win an NBA championship. Look for those teams to lose free agents and trade players under contract to make sure they get under the $179.5 million second tax threshold. Expect the Lakers to be closely looking at those teams’ free agents and rosters.
By opting to hard cap themselves, the Lakers will be able to spend a total of $16.6 million via MLE and BAE instead of just $5 million to sign their own free agents without Bird or Early Bird rights or other team’s free agents.
2. Hard Cap Lets Lakers Bring Back Core
Despite being hard capped, the Lakers could still bring back their 9 best players from last season’s conference finals team, including James, Davis, Christie, Vanderbilt, Russell, Reaves, Hachimura, Schroder, and Walker IV.
James, Davi, Vanderbilt, and Christie had contracts while Russell, Reaves, and Hachimura were re-signed using Bird rights. Schroder was signed with MLE and Walker with BAE. Lively and Livingston were 2023 draft picks. Three open roster spots for minimum salary players brings the Lakers’ active roster to 14-players, 9 of whom were part of the team that made the conference finals and finished as one of the best 4 teams in the league.
What we’re seeing is the Lakers can build a championship contending team while being hard capped provided they pursue a two-superstar and deep roster model rather than the three-superstars model had with Westbrook. The Lakers don’t need to pay luxury taxes to bring back the core of their conference finals team. They can still bring back the 9 best players from that roster while still remaining below the $169 million NBA hard cap.
Rob Pelinka deserves kudos for the job he did in making over this roster. Not only are they near championship caliber, They’re young with real upside and they can bring most of them back despite being hard capped.
3. Hard Cap Gives Lakers $12.2 Million MLE
But the Lakers may not want to spend their $12.2 million MLE or their $4.4 million BAE on Dennis Schroder and Lonnie Walker IV. They could waive them both and instead use the exceptions to sign other team’s free agents.
We know the Bucks may have to dramatically reduce payroll due to the new CBA, which means that the Lakers might be able to convince free agent center Brook Lopez to accept the $12.2 million NT Mid Level Exception. Lopez might love the opportunity to play again for Ham rather than a new coach in Milwaukee and reuniting in Los Angeles with the Lakers where Disneyland is just a short drive away could be a very feasible move.
Top free agents whom the Lakers might pursue with their $12.2 million non-taxpayer MLE could include Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Bruce Brown, Naz Reid, Kyle Kuzma, Kelly Oubre, Dillon Brooks, and Alec Burks. Alternatively, the Lakers can split the $12.2 million MLE between two players and the $4.4 million BAE between two players to upgrade the roster so that the backups for each position were not minimum salary players.
Having $16.6 million rather than $5 million in exceptions to sign their own or other teams’ free agents is a huge advantage for a team like the Lakers who usually operate over the cap and just need one or two more players. Being able to offer an unrestricted free agent from your team or another team the $12.2 million non-taxpayer MLE versus the $5.0 million taxpayer MLE is one of the major advantages of a team hard capping themselves.
The Lakers should seriously consider offering their $12.2 million non-taxpayer MLE to an impact two-way player like Brook Lopez who’s exactly what they need since the path to the championship goes through Jokic.
4. Hard Cap Lets Lakers S&T for 3rd Star
While being hard capped would limit the Lakers to a total payroll of $169 million, it would also give them the ability to pull off a sign-and-trade for Kyrie Irving to join superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis in L.A.
LeBron James and the Lakers’ have long coveted superstar Kyrie Irving, who will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, although there were rumors that he already has a ‘handshake’ deal to re-sign with the Mavs.
But there is a scenario where Kyrie Irving decides he has a better chance of winning an NBA championship with LeBron James in LA than with Luka Doncic in Dallas and the two teams pull off a mega double sign-and-trade.While unlikely, here’s how it could happen. The Lakers sign Russell to a 3-year $60 million deal, exercise Beasley’s team option, and trade the two to the Mavs for Kyrie Irving, who would sign a 3-year $112.5 million contract. Kyrie gets 3 years at $37.5 million to play with LeBron. The Lakers lose Russell and Beasley in trade and waive Bamba. They also no longer have space under hard cap to use MLE and BAE to re-sign Schroder and Walker.
Despite being hard capped, the Lakers could still sign-and-trade for Irving, assuming he would accept $35 million per year, and still be able to bring back James, Davis, Reaves, Hachimura, Christie, and their two draft picks.
Major changes in the CBA, ability to bring back their core, opportunity to offer free agents the $12 million NT MLE, and ability to sign-and-trade for a superstar are the four reasons why the Lakers should hard cap themselves.
Hard capping not only would eliminate any luxury tax for this season but also start the process of reversing their current status as a repeat offender, which has suddenly become much more urgent with the tougher new CBA. There’s no question Jeanie Buss and the Lakers were one of the teams in favor of the harsh new second luxury tax threshold. It should bring back sanity to team building that was undone by the Warriors and Clippers.
One of the most impressive parts of the masterful job Rob did setting the stage for the Lakers to take the next step in building a championship roster was the flexibility that the collection of players he signed gives the team. Rob has all his ducks in a row. Reaves and Hachimura are restricted free agents. Beasley, Bamba, and Vanderbilt have team options on non-guaranteed contracts. The team also has two tradable first round picks.
By hard capping, Rob has three exciting options available to him. He can bring back everybody from last year’s team including Dennis Schroder and Lonnie Walker by using the $12.2 million MLE and the $4.4 million BAE.
Or Rob can use those exceptions for other team’s free agents. The MLE might be enough to sign free agent center Brook Lopez. Or the Lakers can go all-in and try to pull off a mega double sign-and-trade for Kyrie Irving.Bottom line, the Lakers would be smart to hard cap themselves this season so they can take advantage of the new CBA rules and either bring back last season’ team, upgrade it with a star player, or trade for a third superstar.
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LakerTom1 year, 5 months ago
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2. Hard Cap Lets Lakers Bring Back Core
What we’re seeing is the Lakers can build a championship contending team while being hard capped provided they pursue a two-superstar and deep roster model rather than the three-superstars model had with Westbrook.https://t.co/qpgXE15k1G pic.twitter.com/7zIvK1enjZ— LakerTom (@LakerTom) June 3, 2023
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3. Hard Cap Gives Lakers $12.2 Million MLE
The Lakers should seriously consider offering their $12.2 million non-taxpayer MLE to an impact two-way player like Brook Lopez who’s exactly what they need since the path to the championship goes through Jokic.https://t.co/HbD6K8vcpF pic.twitter.com/PjlGq4NVMM— LakerTom (@LakerTom) June 3, 2023
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4. Hard Cap Lets Lakers S&T for 3rd Star
But there's a scenario where Kyrie decides he has a better chance of winning an NBA championship with LeBron James in LA than with Luka Doncic in Dallas and the two teams pull off a mega double sign-and-trade.https://t.co/HbD6K8vcpF pic.twitter.com/puolzYbbBE— LakerTom (@LakerTom) June 3, 2023
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I have had the same thought Tom, but I’m not sure if you can use the full MLE and bi annual if you go over 162 mil tax apron because you pay taxes, even though the hard cap is at 169 mil.
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The hard cap is about $7M over the $162M tax line. Original estimate was $169M but because players get a little more percentage of revenue, it will be a smidge higher but we can use S&Ts, MLE, and BAE long as we don’t exceed $169M.
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The question I have not found an answer too is can we use the full MLE if we go over the tax apron. The full MLE is for non tax paying teams. Over 162 mil we will be paying some tax.
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A real-time look at the 2023-24 salary cap totals for each NBA team, including estimated cap space.
Cap Maximum: $134,000,000
Luxury Tax Threshold: $162,000,000Teams that are under the cap will have their cap holds applied to their overall cap while teams that are over the cap will not have their cap holds applied but must use any exceptions they possess. If a team uses their Bi-Annual, Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level, or Sign-and-Trade they will be considered to be hard-capped and must keept below the Luxury Tax Apron ($169,000,000).
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Hard to find concrete info on the specifics of the new CBA so far. I like to wait for Larry Coon’s breakdown.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
If the Lakers want to seriously compete for a championship, they need to trade Malik Beasley, Mo Bamba, and 2029 first round pick to the Pacers for Myles Turner and bring back their core rotation from last season’s roster.
That would give the Lakers a proven 12-man roster with 9 rotation players from last season’s ‘post-trade deadline’ roster, including James, Davis, Reaves, Russell, Vanderbilt, Christie, Walker, Hachimura, and Schroder. Besides trading for 6′ 11″ center Myles Turner, the Lakers would use their #17 pick in the first round for 6’11” Duke center Dereck Lively II and their #47 pick in the second round for 6′ 7″ Kentucky forward Chris Livingston.
The Lakers’ goal this offseason is not only to build a championship team but also to be in position two years from now to be the premier landing spot to attract an NBA superstar to replace LeBron James when he’s likely to retire. The Lakers want to do a better job making the transition from the LeBron James era than they did moving on from the Magic Johnson or Kobe Bryant eras, which were followed by years of bad rosters and losing seasons.
Pelinka has already said the Lakers were going to try to bring back the core of the team that surprised everybody by being the fourth best in the league after the trade deadline and making it all the way to the conference finals. The challenge will be to accomplish that without crossing the threshold of the league’s new draconian second luxury tax, which starts when a team’s payroll exceeds $186.5 million, which will become the NBA’s real hard cap.
Let’s look at what the Lakers would have to give up to trade for Turner, what they’re likely to do in the draft, how they’re going to bring back their core, and what their starting lineup and rotation would look like after the trade.
1. Lakers Trade With Pacers For Myles Turner
The Lakers have long coveted Indiana center Myles Turner and came close to trading for him before the start of last season before backing out at the last minute. The timing for pursuing Turner now appears to be perfect.
The Lakers need to get bigger, younger, and better defensively and easiest way to accomplish that is to trade for the Pacers’ 27-year old 6′ 11″ center Myles Turner and move LeBron James and Anthony Davis down a position. Turner is the crown Rob Pelinka needs to add to the masterful makeover of the Lakers’ roster he pulled off last trade deadline. He and a pair of stud rookies in Lively and Livingston are the final pieces to the Lakers’ puzzle.
When the Lakers and the Pacers discussed trading Turner last summer, Indiana wanted one first round pick for taking on Westbrook’s contract and one for Myles Turner with protection on the two picks a big sticking point. The trade was always about Turner for draft capital with any Lakers players simply being salary filler. Realistically, the Lakers are going to have to make their 2029 first round pick unprotected for the Pacers to make trade.
Trading for a starting center like Myles Turner would allow Anthony Davis and LeBron James to move down a position, have positional size advantage, and reduce physicality and avoid injury by playing against smaller players. With Turner replacing Vanderbilt, the Lakers starting lineup is suddenly dramatically better at both ends of the court. Turner adds both horizontal and vertical spacing on offense and is one of the league’s top shot blockers.
Finally, trading Beasley and Bamba for Turner will save the Lakers $5.8 million in annual salaries, which not only allows the Lakers to bring back almost everybody from last year but also to avoid the NBA’s new luxury tax.
2. Lakers Turn to Klutch Sports for 2023 Draft
The silver lining of this season is the Lakers ending up with the #17 and #47 picks in what should be an excellent draft class. Look for the Lakers to lean heavily on their long alliance with Klutch Sports when making their picks.
The Lakers’ biggest two roster priorities are finding an athletic center who can play defense and protect the rim and a legitimate bigger 3&D wing who can guard the bigger wing scorers who dominate the Western Conference. Fortunately for the Lakers, Rich Paul and Klutch Sports have two clients in the upcoming 2023 NBA Draft in 6′ 11″ Duke center Dereck Lively II and 6′ 7″ 3&D wing Chris Livingston who would be excellent fits on their roster.
Lively has been projected to be drafted by the Lakers at #17 in several mock drafts while Livingston worked out for Los Angeles right after Klutch Sports Pro Day last week. Both are elite athletes who provide depth and upside. The Lakers as a team want to get younger, bigger, and better defensively. They got a great start when Pelinka remade the roster at the trade deadline and now Rob has an opportunity to finish the job with a killer NBA draft.
The Lakers’ scouting department has shown great ability to find talent late in the first round, second round, or undrafted. If they can land Dereck Lively II and Chris Livingston, they would deserve a draft grade of A+.
3. Lakers Bring Back Core of Last Year’s Team
The Los Angeles Lakers currently have 4 players still under contract in James, Davis, Vanderbilt, and Christie and 5 players whom they would like to bring back in Reaves, Hachimura, Russell, Schroder, and Walker.
The above salary cap projection show the Lakers re-signing restricted free agents Reaves and Hachimura to long-term contracts and unrestricted free agents Russell, Walker, and Schroder using Bird, Early Bird, and TPMLE.
Re-signing those 5 players would then mean the Lakers were returning 9 of 15 players from the roster that made it to the conference finals last year, which would give them better continuity heading into next season.By saving $5.8 million in annual salary in the Myles Turner trade, the Lakers were able to keep their total salaries under the NBA’s $186.5 million second luxury tax threshold and avoid its multiple draconian competitive penalties. There’s no question the NBA’s new second luxury tax is essentially going to establish $186.5 million as the league’s ‘de facto’ hard cap because the penalties for exceeding the threshold greatly impact competitiveness.
By adding Turner and two draft picks to their core rotation from last year, the Lakers are projected to spend $185 million in salaries and pay $47 million in luxury taxes for a total annual payroll expense of $232 million. With three open roster spots for veteran players as insurance or younger players with upside, the Lakers have an opportunity to start next season with the best and deepest roster they’ve had in the LeBron and AD era.
This summer is the second phase of Rob Pelinka’s master class in extreme roster makeover. This summer’s trade for Turner and great draft should finally win Rob Pelinka his overdue trophy as NBA Executive of the Year.
4. Lakers Projected Championship Rotation
Almost every player on the Lakers expressed a desire to see what this team could have done if they had had a training camp and full season to play together, get to know each other, and build some chemistry and rapport.
Imagine bringing back the 9 best players from last season and adding Myles Turner and 2 promising draft picks to that roster. That might be the best 12-player roster in the NBA before you even add two or three more players. The Lakers’ starting lineup of Russell, Reaves, James, Davis, and Turner would be the biggest and baddest defensive team in the league and a bench of Schroder, Walker, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, and Lively would dominate.
This roster would also allow Lakers head coach Darvin Ham to play a deep and diverse 10-man rotation that could dramatically reduce their reliance on and workloads of overworked superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Lakers know the smartest way to keep their two superstars healthy is to reduce their minutes and workloads and surround them with players who will make their jobs easier and the team far more dangerous.
Ultimately, the Lakers’ roster goal to become younger, bigger, and better defensively will not only pay off by winning more NBA championships but also by making the Lakers the ideal landing spot for LeBron’s replacement. Successfully navigating the transition from LeBron James is right now a bigger challenge for the Lakers than winning next season. As always, the Lakers are trying to have their cake and eat it too. They just might do it.
Rob Pelinka has a great opportunity this summer to transform the Lakers into a championship team by bringing back the core rotation from last season, adding center Myles Turner, and drafting two Klutch Sports clients.
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Lakers can consider trading him at the deadline but they’re not going to get anything for him now and they need a point guard and, if he will take less, which he will, then he will be re-signed.
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1. Lakers Trade With Pacers For Myles Turner
Lakers have long coveted Indiana center Myles Turner and came close to trading for him before start of last season before backing out at last minute. Timing for pursuing Turner now appears to be perfect.https://t.co/BYs4HouTbF pic.twitter.com/b7vcatdI3n
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) May 28, 2023
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2. Lakers Turn to Klutch Sports for 2023 Draft
Silver lining of season is Lakers ending up with the #17 and #47 picks in what should be excellent draft class. Look for Lakers to lean heavily on long alliance with Klutch Sports when making their picks.https://t.co/BYs4HouTbF pic.twitter.com/hy2kQ7N3TN
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) May 28, 2023
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3. Lakers Bring Back Core of Last Year’s Team
Los Angeles Lakers currently have 4 players still under contract in James, Davis, Vanderbilt, and Christie and 5 players whom they would like to bring back in Reaves, Hachimura, Russell, Schroder, and Walker.https://t.co/BYs4HouTbF pic.twitter.com/h8kbZOJVjw
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) May 28, 2023
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4. Lakers Projected Championship Rotation
Almost every player on Lakers expressed a desire to see what this team could have done if they had had training camp and full season to play together, get to know each other, and build some chemistry and rapport.https://t.co/BYs4HouTbF pic.twitter.com/bXoMPRAvxj
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) May 28, 2023
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Trading for Myles Turner is all about making life easier for LeBron James and Anthony Davis by surrounding them with younger, bigger, and better defensive players.
Defense wins championships. This is also Lakers doubling down on going big and protecting the rim. Davis and Turner would put a lid on the basket from inside the paint. Turner would allow Davis to be the ultimate roamer on defense. And the dollars fit under new second lux tax threshold.
Best team you can build and still not break new “hard cap.”
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Love this idea and could see it working out…finally…for both teams. Even better, see if you can make it a draft day deal which would give Indy the option on both players.
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Pending free agents
Players whose contracts will expire on June 30 can’t be traded prior to that date. Beginning in July, they can be moved in sign-and-trade deals, but those are rare. Once a free agent officially signs a new contract, he is ineligible to be traded until at least December 15, and perhaps even later than that if he meets certain criteria.
Player with options
Players who have team or player options can’t be traded before those option decisions are made. In other words, a club can’t acquire a player with a team option in June, then decline that option before the end of the month as a way to create cap room.
However, a player who has an option year on his contract technically can be traded, either before or after the new league year begins. As part of the deal though, his option would need to be exercised.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/06/nba-offseason-trade-restrictions-2.html
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So, if Indy kept them o. The roster we could trade them in draft day.
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It’s eerie how the numbers work out after trading for Turner to avoid the second luxury tax threshold. If he made a couple of million more, the numbers wouldn’t work. Can’t trade for a free agent center like Lopez we’d be hardcapped. Turner is the perfect player and the unprotected 2029 FRP should be the golden ticket to pry him from the Indiana Pacers.
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I was thinking trade for Turner a couple days ago. For Indy this trade makes sense because both players fit into what they’re doing and allows them to explore a Heild trade w/o losing the elite shooter. They know how to get the most out of a guy like Bamba, too.
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Lol, you do love to toss that ‘master class’ phrase around lightly, tho. Too funny…
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LOL. Call it whatever you want, Rob did conduct a masterclass in rebuilding a roster. Luck always has a big part in it and oddly, when you look at the results, it was the Rui trade and rise of Reaves that really changed the dynamic, And some good minutes from DLo and Lonnie to be honest.
Oddly, in retrospect, it was the Westbrook trade that we’re still not satisfied with. Beasley and Bamba and the 2029 unprotected FRP for Turner seems like a win-win for both teams. Frankly, Rob and Darvin have been making all the right moves and there’s a history of the Lakers coveting Turner so it’s not a crazy and wild idea. It has roots so I would not be surprised if we see Rob pursue it.
I definitely think we need to be able to go big even if we decided to keep AD playing the five. I’m hoping Pelinka also sees that going big would help us defensively and reduce wear-and-tear on our two fragile superstars.
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As always….fails to look at this from the other side. An easy web search told me all I needed to know about why the Pacers are highly unlikely to do this. Has alot to do with them re-doing his contract a few months ago and their plans going forward.
I REALLY don’t feel like doing this for the next 8 months….smdh
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Have to agree with this logic, might be we end doing a Russ 2.0 in that we end up keeping both guys to be used later in the year. Especially since now that Rob popped his “in-season trade” cherry. Seems more likely we trade for a guy like Randle, Collins or DeRozan. But the $$$ works well, might be accomplished w/an over-pay in draft picks.
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Man, I wish this dude would just retire. Myles Turner will never be a Laker. Indy won’t give him up for anything less than a king’s ransom. They were doing pretty well until Halliburton got hurt. They’ve got a plucky second-round team there, which for Indy may as well be a championship contender.
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If the Lakers want to seriously compete for a championship, they need to trade Malik Beasley, Mo Bamba, and 2029 first round pick to the Pacers for Myles Turner and bring back their core rotation from last season’s roster.https://t.co/w90aCQuhsp
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) May 28, 2023
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Assuming Lakers can bring back 4 players under contract and 5 free agents for salaries listed, they can then trade Beasley and Bamba for Turner or any player under contract making up to $22.6M per year. Here are the candidates who fit that description: https://t.co/htqQ24J3Pj pic.twitter.com/pwOrouOknd
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) May 31, 2023
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LakerTom wrote a new post
LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are down 0–3 and facing the harsh reality that none of the 149 NBA teams who found themselves down 0–3 was ever able to mount a comeback and win a 7-game playoff series.
Make no mistake. LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Lakers are not going wave a white flag or throw in the towel. As long as LeBron James and Anthony Davis can lace them up, they’re going to keep on trying to win. James has always had a problematic relationship with the ‘impossible’ and actually proved it was possible to come back from 1–3 in the NBA Finals. What makes you think LeBron can’t make coming back from 0–3 possible?
The most frustrating and infuriating part of being down 0–3 to the Nuggets is that the Lakers had opportunities to win all three games but essentially were clearly outplayed in the last five minutes of each of the three games. The reality from the first three games of the Western Conference Finals is the Nuggets are now better than the Lakers and Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are now better superstars than LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Frankly, I’m not ready to accept those conclusions from a 3-game sample. Nor am I as a fan, ready to concede LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Los Angeles Lakers can’t win four straight games from the Denver Nuggets. It certainly won’t be easy, especially with two of the four games in Denver, but the Lakers have no choice but to take the series one game at a time. Right now, the goal is to win Game 4 Monday night and extend the series.
Assuming the Lakers are going to try and win Game 4 Monday night, there are questions to answer, including how hard should Lakers be trying, who should start, and how hard and long to play injury-prone James and Davis.
How Hard Should Lakers Try?
There’s no way this Lakers team doesn’t come out with an all-out desperate aggressive attempt to win Game 4 and force the series to Game 5. This team has never quit and they’re going to die trying before getting swept in four.
Lebron James is 14–11 in elimination games and while no NBA team has ever come back from being down 0–3, he’s the one who’s proven before that ‘once impossible’ tasks can sometimes be changed to ‘now possible’ tasks. Being down 0–3 to the Nuggets is going to be a great character test for this Lakers team. Do they fold like wet laundry or come out angry and defiant and ready to prove they’re not overrated and overhyped as Nuggets claim?
As LeBron showed against the Dubs, nothing is impossible. Win Monday night and the series becomes 1–3. Denver can still pull off a Gentleman’s Sweep. Win in Denver on Wednesday night and then everything changes. Suddenly, the series is 2–3 and the Lakers are just 1 home win away from forcing a Game 7. Win Game 7 in Denver and the Lakers are then just four wins against the Miami Heat from winning their 18th NBA Championship.
The Lakers have to be asking themselves as players and team if they believe they’re still the same team they were before the conference finals began, the team that was totally confident they could beat anybody and win it all? Or did the brash Denver Nuggets steal their competitive soul along with their championship hopes by winning those three games? Or even worse, irreparably damage their self-confidence to be champions in the future?
How the Lakers play tonight will give you their answer. I, for one, fully expect nothing but the kind of win we expected but did not get in Game 3. Lakers have a lot to fight for and prove tonight by preventing a sweep.
Should Ham Change Starters?
Winning Game 4 is an opportunity for Darvin Ham to change the narrative of the 2023 West Finals from his being outcoached by the Nuggets’ Michael Malone to how the Lakers smartly fought back and turned 0–3 into a series.
The first move that Ham needs to make is to bench D’Angelo Russell, who has potentially played himself off of the Lakers and out of a new free agent deal close to the $30 million he’s making in the last year of his contract. While Game 4 could be an opportunity for D’Angelo Russell to start to redeem himself, he’s going to have to be content to do that off the bench. The Lakers need to win this game to avoid an embarrassing sweep.
His logical replacement should be Dennis Schroder, who has the Lakers’ best defensive rating in the series but he has not been providing the outside shooting, points at the rim, or playmaking in the paint the Lakers need. Darvin Ham might be smart to turn instead to Lonnie Walker IV or even untested Max Christie, both of whom have the size and length to defend Murray and the handle, shooting, and playmaking to complement Reaves.
Finally, Darvin Ham needs to start Rui Hachimura, who is the only Lakers player in this series with a positive plus/minus. Hachimura is averaging 10 points per game more than any player not named James, Davis, or Reaves. His ability to play Nikola Jokic 1-on-1 with Anthony Davis providing weak side help has been the Lakers only effective defensive scheme against the Nuggets’ two-time MVP. Hachimura needs play 40 minutes in Game 4.
Darvin Ham will likely start Schroder, Reaves, James, Hachimura, and Davis for Game 4. Russell and Vanderbilt will come off the bench but have short leashes. Lakers need to get off to fast start to lesseon the pressure.
Load Manage James and Davis?
Much as the Lakers would like to pull off a miracle comeback from being down 0–3, the last thing this franchise needs to do is risk a major injury to one of their superstars in a game that has only a remote chance to matter.
Ham and the Lakers should go all out to win this game because it is a test of their heart and character but leaving James and Davis in the game should the Nuggets get ahead by more than 10 points would be too foolish to risk. Both LeBron James and Anthony Davis have long time foot injuries that may require offseason surgery. They both have essentially been playing ‘must win’ games for over two months and they have to be exhausted.
Frankly, the Lakers and their fans desperately need to win Monday night and avoid the bad taste of getting swept. Somehow, some way, Los Angeles has to figure out how to win and keep the series going back to Denver. That’s why Game 4 is so important. The last thing the Lakers want is to spend the entire summer after being swept in a series they thought they could win. All they can do at this point is play one game at a time.
As for James and Davis, the Lakers’ load management has to incorporate the odds the team is playing against when it comes to heavily relying on James and Davis to play heavy minutes under intense playoff pressure. Until the Lakers win a couple of games, the Lakers have to be careful not to risk James and Davis getting injured in playoff games they’re likely to lose. Should the Lakers get the series to 2–3, then it’s all out for James and Davis.
The ideal situation for Game 4 would be for the Lakers to lead the Nuggets by 20 at the half and seal the game in the third quarter so James and Davis could sit the entire fourth quarter. Do that and Lakers will be alive.
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You can’t wear your heart on your sleeve for this team all season long and then give up on them when things go wrong. If there ever was a situation where a team could come back from down 0-3, this Lakers team with what they’ve already accomplished and with LeBron James and Anthony Davis and crew could be it. My prediction is now Lakers in 7.
So one game at a time for at least the next two games but win those and everything changes because Lakers would be down 2-3 and on the way back to LA for a home game to force a game 7. Lakers just need to be careful not to get anybody injured in a game that could very possibly end up being meaningless.
This is a character test for Ham, LeBron, AD, DLO, Rui, Vando, and the entire team. Do they quit like Boston or figure something out and start an unbelievable reverse sweep to get into the Finals and win #18. Seriously, the championship is still there to be taken. Just do it!
This is the NBA. NOTHING IS IMPOSSIBLE!
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Hope is dangling by a thread for sure Tom. But one thing we know is this team doesn’t quit. They will go down fighting. They have been fighting for months and that won’t stop today. Like I’ve posted before I think fatigue has a lot to do with it. Denver began resting players in March while we had to battle. The games have been close and have come down to late execution. Focus is a casualty of fatigue and we have seen that. I would like to see both LeBron and AD play fewer minutes but I don’t know if that’s possible. I do believe if we can win the next 2 the pressure will shift to the Nuggets. The Nuggets have never been to the finals and the weight of expectations from their city will rest on their shoulders. Hopefully we will get a chance to see how they handle that pressure.
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Agree 100%, Michael. It’s ironic how the Lakers and the Celtics situations get treated the same. Lakers could be up 3-0 with some better play and good luck. They never quit, even after taking a haymaker blow. The Celtics meanwhile totally quit after getting embarrassed.
I also agree with you that if we can win 2, the pressure shifts. That’s what I’m rooting for. Let’s win the next 2 and see what the pressure does to the Nuggets. If any team can do it, it’s this team. They’ll do it or die trying. That’s enough for me. But #18 is so damn close….
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Problem is, this ain’t the LEBRON JAMES of the past. It’s just Le Bron…not the same dude. Sad to say, he’s only the 4th best player in this series and that’s never happened before. He’s on his way to just being L.James. But we’re expecting him to play 40+ minutes, bang with Jokic on defense, drive to the basket relentlessly, and now also be the point guard cuz D.Russell is a mess. All in his 20th season. That dog don’t hunt. …
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LeBron and the Lakers will need help from the basketball gods for sure to come back from down 0-3. Let’s hope the NBA and the refs want the series to go 7 and the Lakers 3-point shooters can drink some of the same Kool Aid the Heat’s players are drinking.
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The refs put DEN in foul trouble last game and we failed to capitalize on it.
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I’ll be bummed if the Lakers lay down for this one, although historically they come up short when down 3-0. I was actually thinking of taking my daughter to the game but it’ll be a tough slog to get there in time after work with the early start time.
At any rate I really want to see this team throw it’s best punch in this game. I don’t feel like we have in this series, game 1 coming the closest.
D-Lo is a massive X factor and has been below average in this one, need him to step up in a big way for anything positive to happen.
Vando, in whatever minutes he gets, needs to be more of factor and if that means not taking the corner three but driving it to the rim, so be it.
In the end it will, and has always, come down to what LeBron and AD are capable of bringing. They need to bring the thunder and the fire for some hard core Fire Thunder.
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Well said, Jamie. Let’s see their best punch tonight. Prove you belong is step 1 to coming back. Here are the goals:
1. Game 4 – Avoid the Sweep
2. Game 5 – Win this and everything changes.
3. Game 6 – Chance to win home game and make Game 7.
4. Game 7 – Chance to make history, the Finals, and #18.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
After blowing two golden opportunities to steal a win in Denver, the Los Angeles Lakers still remain on course again to win the series in six games by winning their three home games and stealing one game on the road.
As impressive as Jokic, Murray, and the Nuggets were in their two wins over the Lakers, the reality is they needed a superstar performance that’s probably irreplicable in each game to barely hold home court advantage. Michael Malone can be proud of what his Nuggets accomplished in Denver but this series is far from over and what advantage Denver has right now could be gone by Monday night if the Lakers win their two home games.
The Lakers are a perfect 7–0 in this postseason, winning one home play-in game and six home playoff games in rounds 1 and 2. They dominated all six home playoff games, winning by 18.3 points per game with a 98.3 DefRtg. The Nuggets are going to need another transcendent performance from Jokic or Murray to beat the Lakers at home. Far as Lakers are concerned, they’re right on course to win this series in six games just as planned.
Championships in the NBA are won by superstars and it’s hard to imagine the championship-tested LeBron James and Anthony Davis being outplayed by the Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. They’re have to prove they belong. LeBron James may be old and hurt and Anthony Davis frustratingly inconsistent but there’s no way they’re not going to come out tonight and angrily dominate the Nuggets with the crowd screaming for a massacre.
The Lakers now know they must slow down both Jokic and Murray, which could mean starting both Hachimura and Vanderbilt, who have shown to be the best answers Darvin Ham has to defend the Nuggets’ superstars. They also know they need to dominate the boards and points in the paint, which to me means letting Reaves, Hachimura, and Walker be the outside shooters and having James and Davis dominate the paint and the rim.
The Lakers need to double down on going big and relentlessly punish both Jokic and Murray by targeting them with James and Davis. Put them on the bench with fouls. Wear them out on Defense. Get to the free throw line.
The Lakers know the best way to setup their defense is to get to the line on offense. That means no more ‘hero threes’ from LeBron and Anthony, no more settling for jumpers. Attack the paint and rim relentlessly.The Lakers are still of the course to win the series is six games. Win Game 3 and 4 at home, steal Game 5 on the road, and close it in Game 6 at home. Lakers pull off improbable back-door sweep and roll into the NBA Finals.
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I’m astonished at how many Lakers fans are ready to throw in the towel and count the Lakers out after seeing Jokic and Murray both have the kind of transcendent performances that neither is likely to see again in this series.
Meanwhile, I refuse to think the Lakers will have another first half like Game 1 or that James and Davis will have another double-dud game like they did in Game 2. And despite all of the above, the Lakers almost won both games. Stop worrying, Lakerholics. Lakers going to pull off back-door sweep.
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You must not have watched much of the Nuggets. What they’re doing isn’t “transcendent” or (for them) out of the ordinary. Jokic was an “I don’t care about stats” game or two away from averaging a triple-double. He’s been dropping them at home and away. Murray is one of the leading scorers in the playoffs. We have done little to slow either, Murray being only mildly bothered by foul trouble in game 1.
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Pressureis on the Lakers to change the narrative, and I think they can. But its going to have to be a full team effort. Its not just that Jokic and Murray outplaying LBJ and AD its that the Nuggets as a whole are outplaying the Lakers as a whole.
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I believe they can. Problem is they haven’t. Needs to start tonight.
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THANK YOU! YOU’RE GOING TO BE RIGHT!
Wait a minute. Can? That’s not the same as ‘Will.’
It’s so strange that that’s a step you just cannot take.
Hard to be a man with any faith with that approach.
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So tell me when during this year or this playoffs did you see Jokic have a game anywhere near his ‘historic’ Game 1 performance?
And can you show me where Murray ever scored 23 fourth quarter points in his entire playoff career?
Wow, a Lakers fan who still thinks the Lakers are going to lose and Joker and Murray will outplay Bron and AD to win this series.
You’re going to be wrong like you were since the trade deadline. Glass still half empty.
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Lol, game 1 and game 2. They have risen to the challenge, our team has not.
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They had miraculous finishes to barely hold home court. We’re going to crush them twice on our home court.
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Age and wear and tear on older bodies is REAL. Where are our future Stars, cept “Funky Music” and perhaps Rui? Coach of not the year needs to TELL LBJ, stop those 3’s you are not hitting. You are the Coach!
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Soooo…basically, they have to play worse and we have to play better. Brilliant. Got it
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LOL. That’s how it usually works. Series is not over until the visiting team wins or fails to win a game.
We’re still on track to finish the series in six and the only thing that will change that is a loss at home or two more in Denver.
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We’re on track for letting someone else kicking our ass in the 4th, that better change or you’re the one who will change his tune quick as the wind blows lol. Just being real here, dude, Denver has executed their game better than we have. Team needs to be and do better. Across the board.
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One problem is that LeBron isn’t at his best. Used to be all his team had to do was stay close and he’d get them home. That’s not who we have right now. I look at Jimmy Butler last night and realize how far Bron has dropped. The most telling stat is that he’s shooting 34% in the 4th for this entire post-season. His struggles in crunch time are a huge factor in us being down 0-2. Nuggs haven’t had “miraculous” endings; they’ve actually been pedestrian. We just haven’t executed in the clutch.
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And THAT is the real issue. The free throw disparity has kept us in games as much as anything else. I’m hopeful for a win tonight but the whole team has to step up in both ends. Denver as a team has been better. For all of Tom’s “have you seen” hysteria the same could be said for Reaves, Hachimura, and even AD in game 1. Mr. Here Today, Gone Tomorrow was MIA in game 2 but even an elite game from him didn’t get us over the hump. Everyone has to be a factor from here on out and that’s not the Laker M.O. in the playoffs so far.
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I don’t think LeBron to be great. He has only been great once in the playoffs. He just needs to be good. AD is the one that needs to step up. They have no one to guard him. They did nothing special last game, AD got to his spots. He just missed. 4 for 15. He normally shoots over 50%. If he did that last game we win. DLO has to be better as well. He doesn’t need to explode. Give us 15 to 17 like he has done a lot in the playoffs. Both games have been close. We just need to play up to our capabilities.
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LeBron has to be clutch and firing up three straight hero threes is not being clutch. I don’t mind him taking threes when it’s part of the play and off of a drive and dish and wide open but that’s not what those late threes were. James has to be much better and so does AD. They were outplayed in Denver. Can’t happen here.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
The bad news is the Los Angeles Lakers lost two close, winnable games on the road to the Denver Nuggets. The good news is the Lakers now have an opportunity to win the next two games in Los Angeles to even the series.
While the Nuggets have a 2–0 lead in the Western Conference Finals over the Lakers, all they have done is to hold home court advantage by winning their two games in Denver. Now it’s the Lakers’ turn with two home games. Unfortunately, losing two games in a row for the first time in two months will likely have the Lakers questioning their series strategies and schemes, especially since they had a legitimate opportunities to win both games.
The reality facing Los Angeles is they lost the first two games of this series because the Nuggets’ underappreciated superstars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray outplayed Lakers’ superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Jokic averaged an unbelievable 28.5/19.0/13.0 in 28.5 minutes per game while shooting 55.3/50.0/85.7% while Murray averaged 34.0/7.5/5.0 in 39.9 minutes per game while shooting 52.3/45.5/92.3% for the 2 Denver wins.
Meanwhile, James averaged 24.0/10.5/9.5 in 40.0 minutes per game while shooting 51.4/0.0/80.0% while Davis averaged 29.0/12.0/3.5 in 41.4 minutes per game while shooting 47.4/50.0/90.9% during the 2 losses in Denver.
For the 2 games, Jokic and Murray combined for 125 points, 53 rebounds, and 36 assists while James and Davis combined for 106 points, 45 rebounds, and 26 assists, a Nuggets’ edge of 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 10 assists.So while the Nuggets only held home court, the Lakers have some serious issues to fix before they can count on winning their two home games as their defense was shredded by the Nuggets while their offense struggled. While the Lakers did have some success with Hachimura guarding Jokic and Vanderbilt defending Murray, the Nuggets have been ignoring Vando in the corner so their defense would be able to play 5-on-4 against the Lakers.
As the Lakers get ready to defend their 7–0 postseason home record at Crypto.Com Arena tomorrow night, here are the four big questions they need to answer if they’re going to be able to hold home court in L.A.
1. How to Stop Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic?
The one good sign for the Lakers from the two close losses in Denver is the defensive scheme involving Rui Hachimura defending Nikola Jokic to allow Anthony Davis to roam the paint and protect the rim definitely works.
No scheme will shut down the two-time MVP but Hachimura being Jokic’s primary defender with Davis roaming to protect the rim was successful in keeping Nikola from having another historic performance like in Game 1. While the Lakers will try to keep Hachimura on Jokic as much as possible, there will be switches they can’t avoid and it’s likely that Davis and James will also spend time defending the Joker and maybe even Mo Bamba.
Ham needs to start Hachimura and play him starter minutes. The Lakers’ best strategy to stop Nikola Jokic is to have Rui Hachimura be his primary defender so Anthony Davis is free to patrol the paint and protect the rim.
2. How to Stop Nuggets’ Jamal Murray?
The Lakers best option to slow down Denver Nuggets’ superstar point guard Jamal Murray, who single-handedly scored 23 points in the fourth quarter to beat the Lakers in Game 2, is likely to have Jarred Vanderbilt guard him.
That means the Lakers have to find a way to start Jarred Vanderbilt so he can mirror Jamal Murray’s minutes. The only way to do that is for Jarred Vanderbilt to replace D’Angelo Russell in the starting lineup for this series. That would mean the Lakers going all-in on defense with a starting lineup of Austin Reaves, Jarred Vanderbilt, LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, and Anthony Davis, which is essentially the Lakers’ version of a ‘Death Lineup.’
The Lakers’ championship hopes and aspirations are based on their ability to play defense. What they learned in Denver is they need to start their best defensive lineup to have their best opportunity to win 2 games in L.A.
3. How to Get LeBron James Going?
Game 2 left no doubt LeBron is not 100%. The fourth quarter was a comedy of errors for James as he fumbled away fastbreak dunks, had no lift when down hill in paint, and settled for hero threes instead of attacking the rim.
There’s little the Lakers can do about James’ foot injury that will likely require surgery this offseason but they can limit James minutes so he’s not totally gassed in the fourth quarter and settling for long hero 3-pointers. Frankly, it’s doubtful that going 0–10 from three in the two games in Denver is going to dissuade LeBron James from letting it fly from deep. With Rui and Reaves spacing the floor, the Lakers need to play LeBron in the post.
James may not have the explosiveness, lift, or 3-point shooting to carry the Lakers by himself but playing him closer to the basket where he can take advantage of his superior strength, power, and experience would be smart.
4. How to Get Anthony Davis Going?
Just when you think Anthony Davis has taken the torch from LeBron James, he has a game like Game 2 in Denver where he posts 18/14/4 but shot a poor 4–15 from the field and ended up with a -10 plus/minus for Game 2.
And just like that, the Los Angeles Lakers find themselves down 0–2 to the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals with the newly crowned face of the franchise laying an egg in the biggest playoff game of his career. Anthony Davis needs to attack faster, quicker, and more aggressively on offense. Since he’s guarded by Nikola Jokic, the Lakers need him to attack Jokic and get him in foul trouble so he can’t average 42.2 minutes per game.
The Lakers cannot win with Anthony Davis scoring 18 points. They need him to score in the 30’s and get Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets in foul trouble. Davis needs a monster bounce-back 35/20/5 Game 2 to help Lakers win.
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Lakers must win both Game 3 and Game 4 in Los Angeles or this series is for all intents and purposes over. That’s two MUST WIN home games for a team that is now 7-0 at home in the postseason. Lakers can do that.
However, there is no way they can do that unless LeBron James and Anthony Davis play better than they did in Denver and better than their counterparts on the Nuggets Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.
Lakers need to go all in on best and biggest defensive team, which is Reaves, Vanderbilt, James, Hachimura, and Davis. Defensively, Rui and Anthony on Nikola and Vando on Murray.
Offensively, James needs to play more in the post and Davis needs to attack Jokic and get him in foul trouble. Vando needs to get aggressive when he gets the ball near the rim and not be Ben Simmons. Attack the basket and get to the line.
Lakers can still win this series in 65 games. Sweep the LA games, Steal Game 5 in Denver. Close out in Game 6 in LA.
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Have LeBron , AD, & the Lakers Hit Their Ceiling?
Four Big Questions Lakers Must Answer:
1. How to Stop Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic?
2. How to Stop Nuggets’ Jamal Murray?
3. How to Get LeBron James Going?
4. How to Get Anthony Davis Going?https://t.co/tmdPh8Bq3E— LakerTom (@LakerTom) May 20, 2023
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Joker 28, LBJ 38. Jamal 26, AD 31. Why isn’t “Ice Water” giving us Jamal numbers?
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The luck of the draw has finally caught up with us. Memphis was injured, Brooks went brain-dead, and who knows what da hell Ja was doing off the court. GSW held that thing together with duct tape all season and you could tell from their comments after that they knew it wasn’t in the cards. Draymon doomed their season before it even started.
But Denver is a different story. Healthy, cohesive, hungry, and with 2 guys who can match (or even exceed) the output of our superstars. Honestly, I feel like we over-achieved just to keep the final scores close. Only thing we’re doing better than them is getting to the free throw ilne…that ain’t enough.
I’m sick of hearing about our fatigue…the other team is playing the same schedule.
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There’s no question the Nuggets are a much better and tougher team to beat than the flawed Grizzlies and Warriors. While the odds are clearly getting longer and longer, all the Lakers have to do is hold serve on their home court and they can tie the series.
While Bron’s injury and AD’s inconsistency killed us in the first two games, the Nuggets also shot the ball insanely in both games. First, Nikola, then Jamal. Pair that with LeBron and AD having off games and we’re where we are.
I think Lakers need to go defense and big with Reaves, Vando, LeBron, Rui, and Davis. That’s their best defensive team against both Jokic and Murray. Bring Dlo off the bench for this game. Lakers need to dominate both home games to get series back where it should be. It’s either than of Cancun.
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That would mean the Lakers going all-in on defense with a starting lineup of Austin Reaves, Jarred Vanderbilt, LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, and Anthony Davis, which is essentially the Lakers’ version of a ‘Death Lineup.’https://t.co/tmdPh8Bq3E
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) May 20, 2023
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