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LakerTom wrote a new post
Austin Reaves is such a hot NBA story right now that you have to forgive drunk and delirious Lakers fans speculating whether ‘Hillbilly Kobe’ could develop into the elusive third superstar L.A. needs for a new Big Three.
What Austin Reaves has done in just two seasons going from an undrafted rookie to clearly the third best player on the Lakers’ roster and arguably the third best player on the star-studded Team USA roster has been amazing. Unfortunately, as great as 25-year old Austin Reaves is, there’s not enough time left for him to develop into the Lakers’ third superstar before 38-year old LeBron James decides to hang up his sneakers and finally retire.
The other issues with Austin Reaves is he’s already 25-years old, having spent four full years playing college basketball, and does not boast the elite physical body and ultra athleticism that sets apart superstar prospects. What Reaves does possess though that gives him possible All-Star and Superstar upside is a LeBron James level of BBIQ, a lethal 50/40/90% sweet shooting stroke, and a Kobe Bryant ‘Mamba-like’ drive to become great.
The big question is what is Austin Reaves NBA ceiling. We already know he can be a big-time contributor but let’s examine the pro and con cases for Austin as an Elite Starter, an All-Star, or eventually even a Superstar.
Austin Reaves, Elite Starter
Austin Reaves will embark on his third season in purple and gold already firmly entrenched as an Elite Starter and the team’s third best player, with a brand new 4-year $54 million contract and hopefully a FIBA gold medal.
Credit for the Lakers’ strong finish last season is generally attributed to Pelinka’s trade deadline moves but Reaves taking advantage of Westbrook’s touches and minutes to elevate his game to a new level was just as critical. In retrospect, Austin Reaves replacing Russell Westbrook was the catalyst that fueled the New Look Lakers to make it to the Play-In Tournament and eventually to the Western Conference Finals where they lost to Denver.
The next step in Austin Reaves evolution is for the Lakers to give him the ball and let him play more point guard, a role he excelled at during the team’s strong finish to the regular season and their success in the playoffs. While Reaves and Russell were a solid starting backcourt for the Lakers late last season and through most of the playoffs, the team’s interest in having Austin play more point guard could portend a midseason D’Angelo trade.
Bottom line, Austin Reaves finished last season averaging 13.0/3.0/3.4 in 28.8 minutes per game while shooting 52.9%/39.8%/86.4%. Before the trade deadline, he averaged 10.7/3.1/2.2 while shooting 49.1%/36.9%/88.9%. During the playoffs, Reaves raised his game to that of an Elite Starter, averaging 16.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists in 36.2 minutes per game shooting 46.4% from field, 44.3% from deep, and 89.5% from the line.
Austin Reaves has already proven he has the ability to be an Elite Starter in the NBA. Now he just needs to perform at that level for a couple of seasons. We’ll have a better idea of how high his ceiling really is after this season.
Austin Reaves, All-Star
Lakers head coach Darvin Ham expects Austin Reaves to compete for a spot on the West All-Star team. After a sensational playoffs, Reaves is poised to enjoy a breakout regular season that could earn him an All-Star selection.
After averaging 16.9/4.4/4.6 in 36.2 minutes per game in the playoffs, the Lakers plan to give Reaves even more touches at point guard to take better advantage of his playmaking skills and fit with superstars James and Davis. Assuming he will probably play the third most minutes on the Lakers, Austin could have an opportunity to average 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists per game, which would make him a legitimate All-Star candidate.
The recognition Reaves is receiving right now for his terrific play in the FIBA exhibition games as well as his role as a Lakers’ fan favorite will both help him immensely when it comes to making the West All-Star team. While the competition to be one of the guards on the West’s All-Star team is extreme, Reaves has an chance with a 20/5/5 season with 50%/40%/90% shooting and help from Lakers fans to earn a surprise West All-Star spot.
Last year’s West starting guards were Doncic (32.0/8.0/8.6) and Morant (26.2/8.1/5.9) with Gilgeous-Alexander (31.4/5.5/4.8), Lillard (32.2/7.3/4.8), Edwards (24.6/4.4/5.8), Curry (29.4/6.3/6.1), Fox (25.0/6.1/4.2) as reserves. While Reaves’ averaging 20.0/5.0/5.0 won’t compare to the numbers of several of the superstar guards who made last season’s West All-Star team, Austin still has a long-shot chance of being an All-Star because of fans.
Austin Reaves is probably a season or two and a championship away from averaging 25.0/8.0/8.0 and being selected for an All-Star game appearance. It’s just a matter of time and experience before AR becomes an All-Star.
Austin Reaves, Superstar
As the third best player on the Lakers and arguably third best player on Team USA, Austin Reaves has delirious Lakers fans pondering if Hillbilly Kobe could become the team’s third superstar next to LeBron and AD.
Frankly, since the coming season could theoretically be LeBron James final season in purple and gold, Austin Reaves will simply not have enough time to develop into a superstar and form a Big Three with James and Davis.
The better question is does Reaves have the upside to make the jump from NBA All-Star to superstar. While going from elite starter to All-Star is like high school to college, the jump to Superstar is like college to the pros.The hype surrounding Austin Reaves has been out of this world and much of it because Reaves looks more like the average NBA fan than NBA player. In many ways, Austin is his generation’s Larry Bird, the great white hope. Reaves doesn’t have out-of-the-world talent and athleticism, can’t jump out of the gym, and wasn’t even drafted two years ago after playing four years of college basketball. What he does have is a sweet stroke and great BBIQ.
While Reaves won’t have time to grow into a superstar before LeBron is going, the Lakers are hoping Austin’s ability to score and create plays at all three levels will enable him to become Anthony Davis’ superstar partner. The Lakers also plan to experiment more with Austin Reaves playing point guard, which would enable them to trade D’Angelo Russell before the trade deadline without having to bring back a starting point guard in return.
Does Austin Reaves have a chance to develop into a legitimate Superstar? The odds are slim and none considering his raw talent but if he can shoot like Bird, think like LeBron, and compete like Kobe, anything’s possible.
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Thanks for reading and commenting, Brian. And I second all of the great points you made in your comment. Like I finished the article with, if Austin can shoot like Bird, think like LeBron, and compete like Kobe, anything’s possible.
By the way, the name I’m loving for Austin is ‘White Mamba’ rather than ‘Hillbilly Kobe.’
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Austin Reaves, Elite Starter
Austin Reaves will embark on his third season in purple and gold already firmly entrenched as an Elite Starter and the team’s third best player, with a brand new 4-year $54 million contract and hopefully a FIBA gold medal.https://t.co/LxtXcWd36S pic.twitter.com/7tCGGPnbH2
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) August 25, 2023
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Austin Reaves, All-Star
Austin Reaves is probably a season or two and a championship away from averaging 25.0/8.0/8.0 and being selected for an All-Star game appearance. It’s just a matter of time and experience before AR becomes an All-Star.https://t.co/LxtXcWd36S pic.twitter.com/2DGG4w4C54
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) August 25, 2023
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Austin Reaves, Superstar
Does Austin Reaves have a chance to develop into a legitimate Superstar? The odds are slim and none considering his raw talent but if he can shoot like Bird, think like LeBron, and compete like Kobe, anything’s possible.https://t.co/LxtXcWd36S pic.twitter.com/WX55xRWQCD
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) August 25, 2023
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I agree that Austin is probably a couple of years away from all star contention. One thing I would like to see him do is work on his 3 point shot. Currently he is very effective at spot up 3’s if he could incorporate more pull up 3’s and on the move 3’s he would become that much more dangerous.
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Austin is likely to play most minutes this season but the question is how many shots will he get. We know he’s going to be 3rd at best with James and Davis on the team. Last year, he averaged 16.9 ppg in playoffs on 12.1 shots. I would like to see him average 20/5/5 ppg on 16 shots.
The good thing is he won’t get tougher defenders on him so they key is more shots. Playing more point will give him that opportunity. Thing people don’t know is he is not Caruso, who wants to D first. Austin WANTS to shoot so we may see him become ‘him’ more and more.
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Great analysis, and a lot of interesting points. The thing that I think it all boils to is his aggressiveness when balanced against his current level of efficiency. Can he maintain that with more shots, more defenders zeroed in on him, being game-planned for. If he can, then the sky is the limit. We saw the flip side of that happen with THT when the league discovered he couldn’t jump or shoot. They sat in his drives, left him open on the perimeter, and since he’s awful on defense that spelled the end of his hype. How Austin responds to those things will tell us a lot about his trajectory.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
While the Lakers are confident they can compete for a championship this season, they also know all their optimism is based upon receiving positive answers to major question marks for the 10 key players in their rotation.
Frankly, major questions about every player in their rotation is what makes the Lakers a scary team. Those question marks could raise their ceiling to a championship stratosphere or plummet their floor to a nightmarish abyss. While the Lakers have done an excellent job surrounding their superstars with more size, shooting, and depth, they’re still heavily dependent upon LeBron James and Anthony Davis staying healthy and playing 65+ games.
For purposes of this article, we’re going to assume that LeBron James and Anthony Davis will play over 65 games and finish the season healthy and primed for the playoffs. That’s essential for any Lakers championship. We’re also going to assume the Lakers don’t make any more major moves before the start of the season or at the trade deadline. While L.A. is not the favorite, the assumption is the team wants to keep the current roster.
Here are the ten questions ten key Lakers players must answer to win a championship. The Lakers need the first three and five of the remaining seven questions to be answer affirmatively to win the NBA championship.
1. Can Anthony Davis finally take the torch from Lebron James?
With a new 3-year extension locking him in L.A. for the next five years, Anthony Davis has become the Lakers’ franchise face and alpha superstar. For the Lakers to win, AD must reclaim his standing as a top-5 superstar.
The big question is will Davis play the five like last season with James at the four or will the Lakers go two bigs with Hayes or a stretch big like Wood at the five and Davis at the four, where he’ll need to regain his outside shot. Regardless of where Davis ends up playing, he’s going to need to rediscover the outstanding midrange and 3-point shooting stroke he displayed when the Lakers won their 17th NBA championship in the bubble back in 2020.
The Lakers will open the season with two bigs and AD playing his preferred power forward. For the Lakers to win the championship, Davis must take the torch from James and become a legitimate MVP and DPOY candidate.
2. Can LeBron James continue to play like a top-ten superstar?
The coming NBA season could theoretically be LeBron James’ final season in purple and gold as he theoretically could exercise the player option for his final contract year to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.
The big question for LeBron James is whether he will be able to recover from the foot injury that hobbled him the second half of the season and in the playoffs and prevented him from having his normal explosiveness. Where James will end up playing is also up in the air at the moment. The Lakers push to play two bigs may end up forcing LeBron James to slide from the four to the three, which would then have him defending wings.
The Lakers want to relieve LeBron of the pressure of being the team’s lead scorer and playmaker so he can be the ace in the hole they can call when they need a win. They’re counting on LBJ remaining a top-10 superstar.
3. Can Austin Reaves be 3rd best player on a championship team?
While undrafted 25-year olds who played four years of college basketball are usually considered to have a lower ceiling than younger 20-year olds who were one-and-done in college, Austin Reaves may be the exception.
What gives Reaves a much higher ceiling than expected is his preternatural basketball intelligence, ability to efficiently score the basketball at all three levels, and unique knack for drawing fouls from defenders in the paint. Reaves appears ready to translate his elite playoff performance into an elite regular season performance as Darvin Ham essentially plans to give Austin increased point guard responsibilities to see if that could be his future.
With added experience playing for Team USA, Austin Reaves is poised to enjoy a breakout season where he will get more minutes and touches and have a chance to prove he can be the third star on championship team.
4. Can D’Angelo Russell pull off a regular season redemption?
After a rough conference finals and offseason, D’Angelo Russell was forced to sign a 2-year $36 million contract (with year 2 player option) that waived his ‘no trade’ rights so Lakers will be able to trade him after December 15.
NBA analysts and bloggers have already projected D’Angelo Russell along with recently signed Rui Hachimura, recently drafted Jalen Hood-Schifino, and their 2029 first round pick as the team’s likely trade deadline package. That assumes the Lakers have already made up their mind to move on from Russell, which may not be the smart thing for them to do. Other than the conference finals, Russell was a great fit who had an outstanding season.
While the Lakers may ultimately trade him if the right opportunity arises, D’Angelo Russell is going to be driven to show the conference finals were just a fluke and he’s capable of being a championship starting point guard.
5. Can Jaxson Hayes force his way into Lakers starting lineup?
From all reports, the Los Angeles Lakers are serious about wanting to start 23-year old Jaxson Hayes at center so they can play two bigs and move Anthony Davis to power forward and LeBron James to small forward.
The Lakers believe Hayes can start at center like McGee and Howard did during the 2020 championship run, allowing Anthony Davis to play his preferred four and giving team front court positional size advantage.
For the Lakers’ two bigs plan to work, Jaxson Hayes will have to prove he can do what Thomas Bryant and Damian Jones could not do last summer, which is prove he can be the starting center on a championship team.Jaxson Hayes is the biggest wild card on a team full of wild cards. A former #8 pick in the draft, Jaxson has the talent and athleticism to be a starter. Now he needs to show the drive and dedication to become a champion.
6. Can Rui Hachimura play in regular season like in playoffs?
After enjoying a career record playoff, Rui Hachimura was rewarded with a 3-year $51 million contract from the Lakers. The question the Lakers have now is whether they’re going to get ‘regular season Rui’ or ‘playoff Rui.’
Frankly, there’s no way ‘regular season Lakers’ get the full ‘playoff Rui,’ who set a record last playoffs shooting 48.7% from deep, which reduced his previous 60.0% playoff 3-point percentage to his still league best 51.9%.
But that doesn’t mean that the Lakers are not going to be thrilled with the more confident, versatile, and impactful version of Rui Hachimura that Darvin Ham, Phil Handy, and LeBron James have somehow molded.Expect Rui Hachimura to show why he was a #9 pick in the draft and prove he can be a starter or play starter minutes as one of the Lakers’ first players off the bench. Rui could be a candidate for league Most Improved Player.
7. Can Gabe Vincent shoot in regular season like in playoffs?
Like Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent had a sizzling playoff performance for the Miami Heat, shooting a sizzling 37.8% from deep on 6.1 attempts per game making it all the way to the NBA Finals before losing to the Nuggets.
Vincent’s signing is part of the Lakers’ offseason effort to upgrade their 3-point shooting. The Lakers see him a likely shooting upgrade and possible defensive upgrade over Dennis Schroder, the team’s starter last season.
Gabe’s needs to prove he can shoot 37.8% from deep in the regular season, which would be a dramatic improvement over his journeyman 33.9% career regular season and 35.3 career playoff 3-point shooting stats.Vincent will get a chance in camp to take the starting point guard job away from D’Angelo Russell and could be the Lakers steal in free agency if he can shoot like he did in the playoffs and replace Schroder’s solid defense.
8. Can Taurean Prince be the Lakers’ free agency steal?
Signing Taurean Prince was one of the first moves the Los Angeles Lakers made when free agency opened, locking up the highly coveted 3&D combo forward to a 1-year, $4.5 million contract using their Bi-Annual exception.
Prince gives the Lakers the bigger 3&D wing they’ve desperately needed to guard the elite wing scorers in the West. The 6′ 7′ Prince has a 7′ wingspan and shot over 38% from deep the last four years on 3.5 attempts per game. Signing for the BAE already makes Taurean a free agent steal for the Lakers but what they’ve hoping for is the young veteran who’s a plus defender and proven sniper who can backup either LeBron James or Anthony Davis.
If Taurean Prince plays solid D and shoots over 38% from deep on 3 to 4 attempts per game, he’ll play big minutes, be one of the Lakers’ steals of this free agency, and be an even more coveted free agent next summer.
9. Can Jarred Vanderbilt fix his offensive deficiencies?
As is always the case, the deeper a team gets into the playoffs, the more pressure identifies and takes advantage of its weaknesses. That’s what happened to D’Angelo Russell and it’s what happened to Jarred Vanderbilt.
Vando went from the immediate defensive spark that carried the Lakers into the play-in game and then the playoffs themselves to the player teams refused to guard in the corner, making the Lakers play 4 on 5 on offense. Vando must improve his 3-point shooting and ability to score when given the ball in traffic in the paint. Early reports say he’s changed his shooting stroke and has been working with Phil Handy on improving post moves.
Jarred is in the final year of his contract and could be in for a raise if he shows he’s no longer a liability on offense. He’ll get chances because his defense is so critical but his role and minutes will depend on his offense.
10. Can Cam Reddish break into Lakers 10-man rotation?
The Los Angeles Lakers completed an unusual 2019 NBA Draft Trifecta by signing Cam Reddish, #10 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, to go with #8 pick Jaxson Hayes and #10 pick Rui Hachimura already on the Lakers’ roster.
Like Hayes and Hachimura, Reddish is still looking to find a team where he can finally put his elite talent and athleticism together and find a team on which he can become the best possible player he’s capable of becoming. The Lakers are betting they can do the same for Hayes and Reddish as they may have done for Hachimura. Much as he was a huge rooter for Rui last season, LeBron has already come out and predicted big things for Cam.
Of the three 2019 top-10 draft picks, Cam Reddish is probably the biggest disappointment and has the biggest mountain to climb. Earning his way into a potential championship Lakers’ rotation would be a great first step.
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Tom a really good article. I thought I would take a shot at answering all the questions (in my opinion):
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Here are my answers to your questions:
1. Yes I think AD will answer the call – I think he & Bron play about 32-22min each, AD starting at 5, Bron at 4, Vando or Rui at 3, AR at 2 & DLO at Point. Hayes or Biyombo/Wood will sub in when Bron rests, Prince at 3, Max at BKUP 2 & Gabe at point. 2. Yes Bron should be healthy & play 65+ games (I actually think he will exercise his player option & play 1 more year.
3. Reaves with his 3 month playoff run last year, plus this summer on team USA is only cementing his position as the 3rd best player on the Lakers (maybe he & DLO can have a friendly competition to see which is better, which will only make both of them better.) -
4. Yes I think DLo will replicate his regular season last year (17.8 pts 47% FG 39.6% 3 pt 83% FT 6 Assists). The guy had one bad series of 4 games! He & Austin will be great together this year (maybe DLo gets an extension?)
5. I don’t think Hayes will start for this team, but will see a lot of action off the bench. He has an interesting skillset & should play both C & PF for 15 min or so. 6. No way Rui will EVER replicate his fantastic 16 game playoff run in the regular season, but if he play defense & rebound like that & average 13pt & shoot 35% from 3 (looking for open 3s & get to his other spots) he will be worth his new contract. 7. If Gabe can get to his sweet spots at the corners for short 3s – being selective (like other Laker 3 point shooters) will improve his 3%. Gabe will be first off the bench most of the time; his offense is comparable to Dennis overall (some +s, some -s) & I feel his defense is also comparable (better on the block but his hands aren’t as quick) so he is a good replacement at BKUP Pt. 8. Prince already is the steal of the off-season. Getting his defense, 3pt shooting in a bigger wing package for the BAE means he will play big minutes off the bench & may be starting some games.
9. I have seen videos of Vando working with Handy of his 3-point shooting motion (looks different in Before/After) & appears to be more effective. If he can raise his 3pt% to 35% on 3 or so a game, he will get a lot of time cause of his defensive skills.
10. With a 10-man rotation of AD, Bron, Rui, Reaves, DLo, Gabe, Prince, Vando, Hayes & Christie plus either Biyombo or Wood, I see little chance of Reddish being in the main rotation. He will have his chance of fighting for minutes with JHS, Lewis, & the 2 way guys (nice problem to have, but not to him.)
Also after looking at the schedule I figure in the 15 B-to-Bs Lakers will go maybe 16-14 in those 30 games. With the schedule we have & our team plus chemistry & health, I truly believe if healthy Lakers can win 54-55 games & get the 2nd seed in the West.-
Great comments, Brian. Can’t disagree with any of them. It will be interesting to see how these guys look in camp and preseason. We have so many wild cards that look like they could be something, I can’t wait to see this team in action. Their potential is a championship imo but they need to hit on at least 7 of these 10 questions, which you did.
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The 10 Questions 10 Laker Players Must Answer to Win Championship
1. Can Anthony Davis finally take the torch from LeBron James?https://t.co/TlMxaqbW02 pic.twitter.com/SmaNe0qsKr
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) August 19, 2023
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The 10 Questions 10 Laker Players Must Answer to Win Championship
2. Can LeBron James continue to play like a top-ten superstar?https://t.co/4qs5DhBYus pic.twitter.com/u4Jbf1oxtt
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) August 19, 2023
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The 10 Questions 10 Laker Players Must Answer to Win Championship
3. Can Austin Reaves be 3rd best player on a championship team?
https://t.co/Mv0ec3UVVB pic.twitter.com/nnlIBKnZIi— LakerTom (@LakerTom) August 19, 2023
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Awesome article, great points on all the players. Reaves I think a lot of guys will end up reprising their roles from last season. The defense of guys like AD. JV. GV and TP along with where Rui fits in on that end will cornerstone 1 of our identity, if we go big or small points in the paint dominance will ve #2, as you mentioned we have guys who can get to the stripe and so FTA doninance will be 3 and valuing the possession will be #4. I exoect and oredict us to be a middle if the pack/above aberage three point shooting team and that largely leans in James and Russell. Everyone else’s threes will mistly be coming off the pass after that. Maybe Ham adds sone more soecific okays, hopefully inesbthat can get a clean look for a good shooter, but it’s going to be supplementary to thise other 4 pillars.
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Nice article Tom. 1. I think AD is a natural number 2 guy. Which isn’t necessarily a bad thing if he plays like he did down the stretch and in the playoffs.
2. We have seen LeBron gradually decline over the last few years, especially on the defensive end. But he is not suddenly going to lose it. I expect him to play close to the level he played at last year.
3. from the time Austin stepped into the starting line up he has played at that level. He has been getting rave reviews from the coaches and teammates on USS basketball proving that we saw last year was no fluke. Teams will adjust but he has a high IQ and will adjust as well.
4.DLO will be DLO. He had a positive impact until the Conf. finals. But look at Jaylen Brown with the Celtics. he was worse. It happens.
5.Hayes has the tools. lets see if our excellent development coaches can help him to become consistsnt.
6. I believe Rui will have a big year. lets face it, the Wizards have been a terrible organization and coming to the Lakers is what he needed. Phil really did wonders with him. While he is not going to shoot 49% from 3 i would not be surprised if he shot 38 to 40%. But the thing that not many people talk about was the defense he played. He garnered a lot of praise for his defense in the playoffs and defended to 2 through 5 well.
7. Vincent will be interesting. worst case we get pretty much the same as we did with Dennis. Best case we get Playoff Gabe. Either way, he is a quality addition.
8.YES.
9. I suspect Vando will improve on the offensive end. still a guy who is now said to be 6′ 10″ that can take on the best scorers in the league, even small guards loke JA will always have a place on my team.
10. Cam will be interesting. i really have no idea what we will see. He will have his hands full trying to break into the rotation.-
You should have had a 11. Tom. Max Cristie. Concidering are lack of depth at guard I’m hoping that Max is ready to contibute this year. i did like what i saw from him in summer league. Hopefully it translates well for this season.
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Haha. You’re right. I originally had Christie instead of Prince but then could not find a picture with Max instead of Taurean so I deleted Max and inserted Taurean so the article matched the picture.
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Thanks, Jamie. This is a fun team and every player has motivation and upside. Can’t wait for the season to start.
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Hello Tom. The season seems like light years away. Can’t wait. Great article, Tom.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
While the Lakers were able to get bigger, deeper, and better this offseason, the more important question is did they do enough to upgrade their league worst 3-point shooting to win their league best 18th NBA championship?
At last season’s trade deadline, the Lakers were averaging a league worst 10.5 made threes per game and shooting an NBA 25th worst 34.6% from deep. That’s when Rob Pelinka started his makeover of the Lakers’ roster.
He added Rui Hachimura, D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Jarred Vanderbilt at deadline and Taurean Prince, Gabe Vincent, Cam Reddish, Jaxson Hayes, Jalen Hood-Schifino, and Maxwell Lewis this offseason.Rob Pelinka was universally praised for the Lakers’ outstanding offseason as they continued building a team better tailored to fit 30-year old Anthony Davis’ championship window rather 38-year old LeBron James’ timeline. Rumors about the Lakers wanting to start Hayes at the five, Davis at the four, and James at the three have only exacerbated concern over the team’s spacing problems and raised more questions about their 3-point shooting.
The Lakers know the key to winning with LeBron James is surrounding him with elite 3-point shooters and defenders. The challenge is those are the exact same players every team in the league needs and is looking for.
The Lakers showed they could overcome poor 3-point shooting by winning the points-in-the-paint and made-free-throws battles. They have a legit shot this season to turn 3-point shooting from a disadvantage to an advantage.So let’s look at whether Rob Pelinka and the Lakers did enough at the trade deadline and this offseason to upgrade their 3-point shooting performance to give them a legitimate chance to win their 18th NBA championship.
What Do The Numbers Say?
The numbers say the Lakers dramatically improved their 3-point shooting with savvy moves at last year’s trade deadline and may have done same this offseason with smart signings of their own and other team’s free agents.
At last season’s trade deadline, the Lakers’ 10.5 made threes per game ranked a dead last 30 of 30, their 31.2 attempted threes per game ranked a poor 26 of 30, and their 34.6% three-point percentage a dismal 25 of 30.
After the deadline, the Lakers addition of Russell, Beasley, Vanderbilt, and Hachimura and emergence of Reaves saw the Lakers jump to a 19th best 11.5 threes per game and a 16th best 36.1% from deep for those 26 games.The above chart shows 3-point shooting stats of the Lakers 11 veterans for last year as well as projections for next year. While reasonable estimates, the numbers project the Lakers’ 3-point shooting will take another jump.
Th projection is the Lakers jump to 15 made threes on more than 40 attempts per game, which would put them in top-five in 3-point makes and takes. The resulting 37.1% would rank in lower half of the top-ten.Heading into the next season, the Lakers have four players who are proven near 40% 3-point shooters in Reaves, Russell, Christie, and Prince plus two players who just shot over 40% in the playoffs in Hachimura and Vincent. That’s a solid core of six high percentage shooters who should transform the Lakers’ offense though they‘ll still need LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Jaxson Hayes to display better 3-point shot selection and accuracy.
While likely a best case scenario, the Lakers have a realistic chance to finish next season as one of the top-ten 3-point shooting teams in the league, making and taking 50% more threes than they did last season.
What Else Can The Lakers Do?
The most important thing the Lakers can do now to upgrade their 3-point shooting is use their remaining two roster spots on stretch bigs to balance their roster’s 3-point shooting. Signing Christian Wood should be priority.
Right now, the Lakers’ 3-point shooting strength is concentrated in their guards and small forwards. None of their front court players — Hachimura, Vanderbilt, James, Davis, or Hayes — are proven quality 3-point shooters. That’s why Christian Wood is such an attractive 14th player for the Lakers to add to their current roster. Wood’s a career 37.9 three-point shooter on 3.5 attempts per game who’s shot better than 37.4% for four straight seasons.
Adding Wood would also give the Lakers insurance against Anthony Davis missing games due to injuries, especially on the offensive end where L.A. does not have a center who can impact the game offensively if AD is out. Frankly, I think adding a player like Wood makes so much sense the Lakers should consider signing-and-trading for him to obtain his Bird rights and to be able to keep him long-term on a team friendly deal if he worked out.
The Lakers’ coaching staff’s biggest offseason challenge is going to be fixing the broken 3-point shooting strokes of power forwards LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Jarred Vanderbilt, and center Jaxson Hayes.
The Lakers are hopeful Rui Hachimura, who shot a league best 48.7% from deep on 2.4 three-point attempts per game in last season’s playoffs can turn into a consistent near 40% 3-point shooter regular season and playoffs.The Lakers need to add one and preferably two stretch bigs to their roster so they can create realistic 5-player lineups with legitimate 3-point gravity. Lakers need stretch versions at both power forward and center positions.
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What Do The Numbers Say?
The numbers say the Lakers dramatically improved their 3-point shooting with savvy moves at last year’s trade deadline and may have done same this offseason with smart signings of their own and other team’s free agents.https://t.co/LDYDsy1ahG pic.twitter.com/BjDzyzKztJ
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) August 12, 2023
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The numbers say the Lakers dramatically improved their 3-point shooting with savvy moves at last year’s trade deadline and may have done same this offseason with smart signings of their own and other team’s free agents.
At last season’s trade deadline, the Lakers’ 10.5 made threes per game ranked a dead last 30 of 30, their 31.2 attempted threes per game ranked a poor 26 of 30, and their 34.6% three-point percentage a dismal 25 of 30.
After the deadline, the Lakers addition of Russell, Beasley, Vanderbilt, and Hachimura and emergence of Reaves saw the Lakers jump to a 19th best 11.5 threes per game and a 16th best 36.1% from deep for those 26 games.The above chart shows 3-point shooting stats of the Lakers 11 veterans for last year as well as projections for next year. While reasonable estimates, the numbers project the Lakers’ 3-point shooting will take another jump.
Th projection is the Lakers jump to 15 made threes on more than 40 attempts per game, which would put them in top-five in 3-point makes and takes. The resulting 37.1% would rank in lower half of the top-ten.Heading into the next season, the Lakers have four players who are proven near 40% 3-point shooters in Reaves, Russell, Christie, and Prince plus two players who just shot over 40% in the playoffs in Hachimura and Vincent. That’s a solid core of six high percentage shooters who should transform the Lakers’ offense though they‘ll still need LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Jaxson Hayes to display better 3-point shot selection and accuracy.
While likely a best case scenario, the Lakers have a realistic chance to finish next season as one of the top-ten 3-point shooting teams in the league, making and taking 50% more threes than they did last season.
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What Else Can The Lakers Do?
The most important thing the Lakers can do now to upgrade their 3-point shooting is use their remaining two roster spots on stretch bigs to balance their roster’s 3-point shooting. Signing Christian Wood should be priority.https://t.co/LDYDsy1ahG pic.twitter.com/cWNL5HTL7f
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) August 12, 2023
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The most important thing the Lakers can do now to upgrade their 3-point shooting is use their remaining two roster spots on stretch bigs to balance their roster’s 3-point shooting. Signing Christian Wood should be priority.
Right now, the Lakers’ 3-point shooting strength is concentrated in their guards and small forwards. None of their front court players — Hachimura, Vanderbilt, James, Davis, or Hayes — are proven quality 3-point shooters. That’s why Christian Wood is such an attractive 14th player for the Lakers to add to their current roster. Wood’s a career 37.9 three-point shooter on 3.5 attempts per game who’s shot better than 37.4% for four straight seasons.
Adding Wood would also give the Lakers insurance against Anthony Davis missing games due to injuries, especially on the offensive end where L.A. does not have a center who can impact the game offensively if AD is out. Frankly, I think adding a player like Wood makes so much sense the Lakers should consider signing-and-trading for him to obtain his Bird rights and to be able to keep him long-term on a team friendly deal if he worked out.
The Lakers’ coaching staff’s biggest offseason challenge is going to be fixing the broken 3-point shooting strokes of power forwards LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Jarred Vanderbilt, and center Jaxson Hayes. The Lakers are hopeful Rui Hachimura, who shot a league best 48.7% from deep on 2.4 three-point attempts per game in last season’s playoffs can turn into a consistent near 40% 3-point shooter regular season and playoffs.
The Lakers need to add one and preferably two stretch bigs to their roster so they can create realistic 5-player lineups with legitimate 3-point gravity. Lakers need stretch versions at both power forward and center positions.
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I think we will be fine. Our biggest issues last year was LeBron taking 7 a game and Russ taking 4. Russ is gone, replaced by DLO and Vincent. Hopefully LeBron will take either fewer 3’s or shoot a better percentage. I fully expect Rui to shoot at least in the high 30’s. Not only did he shoot 49% in the playoffs but he has actually had a 44% season as well. Prince is a 38% 3 point shooter and plays both forward positions. I expect Austin to at least shoot the 39% he shot last year. When you consider he struggled like the rest of the team early that 44% he shot in the playoffs is moe in line with what he did most of the season.
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Unless the Lakers shooting ‘tax’ is real, I agree we should be fine. I’m hoping we can even have a positive 3-point differential. That would be cool to see. Lakers embracing 3-point shot.
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LakerTom wrote a new post
After signing superstar Anthony Davis to a 3-year $186 million extension that will lock him up for the next four or five years, the Lakers next move could be to move AD from center to power forward to unleash his game.
Anthony Davis has been extremely effective playing mostly center for the Lakers the past two seasons but the move has also resulted in a dramatic drop in the accuracy and efficiency of his midrange and 3-point shooting. During his first two years as a Laker playing mostly power forward, Davis shot 30.8% from deep (1.0 of 3.2 3PA per game). Playing mostly center the last two years, that percentage dropped to 22.2% (0.3 of 1.5 3PA per gam).
While critics use the reduced midrange and 3-point shooting stats as reasons why Davis should continue to play the five, playing center the last two years actually limited AD’s game and made it easier to defend him. Anthony Davis as a center totally changed his shot selection last season, almost eliminating mid-range and 3-point shot attempts for more shots in the paint and at the rim. That’s why his 3-point percentage plummeted.
Anthony Davis transition this past season from a three-level scorer to a low post scorer also exacerbated the Lakers serious spacing issues and made it easier for teams to pack the paint and force L.A. to shoot from outside. Going forward, the Lakers need both Davis and James to take and make threes like they did during their championship run in the bubble in 2020. Can’t win in today’s NBA with superstars who can’t take and make threes.
The Lakers need to move Anthony Davis back to power forward where he has more space and freedom to operate and he can get back to being the top-five, three-level, two-way superstar he was back in the bubble in 2020. Once LeBron James has retired, the last thing the Lakers want is for their alpha superstar to play a position that isn’t able to control the ball in space, which is why L.A.’s top priority is to shift Davis from center to forward.
Center is also not the position Anthony Davis wants to play nor the position he truly believe is best for him. Moving him to the four will give him more touches and space to help him bring back his midrange and 3-point games.
Why Anthony Davis Must Become Stretch Four
Frankly, if the Lakers seriously plan to revert back to the two-bigs lineups that helped them win their 17th NBA championship in the bubble, they will need Anthony Davis to regain his midrange and 3-point shooting touch.
Everything the Lakers do going forward, including playing two bigs, is all about optimizing Anthony Davis and giving him every possible opportunity to become the top five superstar for whom they traded four years ago. There’s an impression among jaded fans and analysts that AD’s ascent to greatness has stalled by inconsistency and injuries. There’s some truth in that but the Lakers believe playing center is partly responsible for delay.
There’s big push by old school critics that Davis should continue to play center and completely stop shooting long twos or threes. The Lakers should do the exact opposite and order Anthony to take at least 5 threes per game. That’s what coach Vogel did during the 2020 championship season when Davis shot 33.0% on 3.5 3PA per game. AD’s 3-point shooting peaked during the 2020 playoff run when he shot a sizzling 38.7% on 2.9 3PA per game.
The 3-point shot continues to dominate today’s NBA game and roles and opportunities for non-shooters continue to decline, which only points to the stupidity of asking a superstar like Anthony Davis to not shoot threes. Those who want to turn AD into a non-shooter don’t appreciate just how good and talented he was as a power forward and how that totally changed how the other four Lakers players around him played and interacted.
The Lakers will be looking to test two bigs with Anthony Davis at the four and either Jaxson Hayes or Christian Wood at the five during camp and preseason. Look for Anthony Davis to let it fly from midrange and deep. The Lakers want Anthony Davis to be their version of Kevin Durant, not their version of Joel Embiid. They want AD to get the same ball touches and shot opportunities that KD has been able to get by playing power forward.
Now that Anthony Davis is the official face of the franchise, the Lakers want to shine a spotlight on him and play him at the four where he’ll have the best opportunity to reach his ultimate potential as a superstar player.
What About LeBron James Defending Small Forwards?
The main criticism for why the Lakers should not play two bigs is that it forces LeBron James to move from power forward to small forward, which means he could be forced to chase quicker wing scorers around screens.
Of course, the counter to that argument is the problem James presents at the other end of the court. Unless we’re talking about another superstar, LeBron’s not going to lose many matchups regardless of how he defends. That’s the beauty of basketball. Every matchup has two sides and while a team could attack LeBron on defense, it’s doubtful they can take enough advantage of him on defense to counter the damage he’ll do on offense.
Basketball has also increasingly become positionless so it’s not always fives guarding fives, fours guarding fours, or threes guarding threes. Teams will cross-defend both in the front and backcourts to optimize their matchups. While Hayes or Wood may be the five, Davis the four, and James the three on offense, that doesn’t mean their going to defend their counterpart. There may be times when Hayes defends a four or Davis guards a three.
Sustainability is the long-term key for Los Angeles. The Lakers’ 5-year plan for Anthony Davis is for him to be a power forward in the Kevin Durant model at the offensive end rather than a center in the Joel Embiid model. Moving forward, the Lakers need the Anthony Davis to play power forward, where he will have the freedom and space, touches and shots to become the uber-athletic top-five offensive and defensive superstar they traded for.
Finally, the decision to play two bigs comes downs to a decision as to whether Anthony Davis or LeBron James gets to play their preferred positions. In light of the recent extension, the nod should go to Davis.
If Anthony Davis is going to be the face of the franchise, then he needs to play power forward where he will have more freedom and space playing inside and outside to get more touches and shots than playing center.While having LeBron James guard small forwards and wings is not ideal, the Lakers are not overly worried about it because LeBron can still coast on defense and get more back on offense dominating other end of the court.
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Anthony Davis as a center totally changed his shot selection last season, almost eliminating mid-range and 3-point shot attempts for more shots in the paint and at the rim. That’s why his 3-point percentage plummeted.https://t.co/eZYmYPWeTs
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) August 10, 2023
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What you say makes sense. Hayes at Center part of the time could get spacing if AD can hit his midrange & corner 3s. I am just more concerned with Bron having to guard small forwards all the time at 39. That is why I still think having Hayes in when Bron rests & match up with AD at that time might be a more viable plan. I want to see if Vando can hit his corner 3s & be more of an offensive threat, then have him start & match up with Rui, Hayes, Prince & maybe Reddish at the forwards. Austin & DLo start & subbed out by Vincent & Max. Overall I think it makes us a much more versatile team over the whole game. For now I want Austin, Gabe, Rui, Bron & AD to close.
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Thanks for reading and replying, Brian.
I also don’t want to see LeBron wear himself out chasing shooters over screens. Like I explained in the article, I think the Lakers will do a lot cross-matchups where we may see Hayes defend fours and even Davis defend threes. Will change according to opponent and matchups.
One thing I did not include in the article when I discussed options for Lakers to ameliorate LeBron chasing guys around screens is to switch everything. Lakers now have the backcourt size in DLO and Reaves and front courts size in Davis and Hayes to be able to switch everything
Switching everything actually is a sound partner to drop coverage as it prevents guards from putting their defenders in jail after they trail shooters over a screen. The bigger, younger, and more athletic Lakers roster is perfectly stocked to play switch everything on defense.
In the end, the Lakers have preseason to test and experiment to see how they defend with two-bigs lineups. I would not be surprised to see the Lakers adopt a switch everything defense to ameliorate LeBron James having to defend quicker, smaller scoring wings around picks.
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By the way, in your desired starting lineup, Hachimura would end up playing and defending the three, which I think would be even worse than LeBron defending the three.
Rui is a worse matchup for quicker, smaller threes than james. He’s really another power forward, just like Anthony Davis and LeBron James.
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You have a point, which is why if Vando can hit his corner 3s and be more effective on cutting plus gets better at sliding through picks, maybe he should start at SF with Bron at PF. Guess we have to see how this all shakes out. I am just much more nervous about Wood & his feeling he is a star (Nick Angstadt from Locked on Mavs says that is really where he & his agent are at.) This has to be nipped in bud quick for him to be viable on Lakers. We will know after the Dame trade happens (or doesn’t.)
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Vando needs to also be able to score underneath the rim as well as from the corner. He’s Ben Simmons when you give him the ball in the paint.
If Vando could shoot 36% from deep and learn how to score in the post, he could be the starter at the three. Has to do it this year though because his contract will run out. I’d love to see it.
You’re right that the Lakers need an elite two-way 3&D wing like OG at the three to complement two-bigs. Unfortunately, those guys are the rarest in the league. We may have to wait until LeBron retires to get one.
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Center is also not the position Anthony Davis wants to play nor the position he truly believe is best for him. Moving him to the four will give him more touches and space to help him bring back his midrange and 3-point games.https://t.co/eZYmYPWeTs
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) August 10, 2023
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I have seen video of Vando and Handy working on his shooting and to me the results are encouraging. He used to shoot over his right shoulder and now shoots middle of his head. Shot looks better & had a video where he made about 8 in a row (no cuts in the video either.) I have hopes he can knock down some 3s and midrange which will keep him on the floor more – maybe that will allow him to be close enough to a 3 & D guy he can play 20-25 minutes. Will wait and see what camp brings.
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Everybody thinks I hate Vando. I actually love him and am rooting for him to show he can improve both from distance and in close in traffic. He needs to be as aggressive on offense as he is on defense. Guys pay is set mostly by their offense in this league, not their defense. Unfortunately, great offense beats great defense. It’s why Wood right now is more valuable to the Lakers than Vando IMO.
But I also love Phil Handy as well as Chris Matthews (LethalShooter) who was working with guys on their shots. Frankly, I’m hoping Hayes, Reddish, Vando, and Rui all have monster camps and preseason and we kick ass starting with opening night in Denver.
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I’m not a Vanderbilt fan…other than defense, which was excellent against the Warriors, but the league will adjust…I feel he isn’t strong enough to hold his position (offense or defense), his offense was and will likely be sub-adequate at best…last season he avoided calling for the ball when he was open, this coming season he may call for the ball but he will be far from a knock down shooter, and will never command a double team in his career.
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Nick Argstadt from Locked on Mavericks wrote: “The problem with Christian Wood is that in the Anthony Davis games (the games in which he plays alongside or with Davis), he will think he is better than Anthony Davis,” said Angstadt. “He will come in and say, ‘This is my time, this is me and my best skill is shooting, scoring, doing those things and so anytime I get the opportunity I will do that.’ … The problem is he takes you out of your offense a lot, and he thinks he should be an All-Star.”
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Tim MacMahon of Locked On Mavericks had this to say: “The problem is not that he’s a bad defender, the problem is that he is an (expletive) terrible defender.” This is probably why he’s still unsigned.
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Aloha, Michael,
Hope you and your family are all OK. Couldn’t remember if you were on Maui or the big island. Scary times for you guys. Praying for you. Lahaina was one of favorite spots in Hawaii.
Listen, there’s no question Wood sounds like a total jerk. The only saving grace is the Lakers and LeBron could be exactly what he needs at this point. Just don’t know if he’s ready to accept that yet. At least, they think they can. It’s worth the risk imo but we’ll see.
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Why Anthony Davis Must Become Stretch Four
If Lakers plan to revert back to two-bigs lineups that helped them win their 17th NBA championship in bubble, they will absolutely need Anthony Davis to regain his midrange and 3-point shooting touch for it workhttps://t.co/HfveLnQBVr pic.twitter.com/UWVckAuBhm
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) August 11, 2023
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What About LeBron James Defending Small Forwards?
The decision to play two bigs comes down to a decision whether Anthony Davis or LeBron James gets to play their preferred power forward position. In light of recent extension, nod should go to Davis.https://t.co/eZYmYPWeTs pic.twitter.com/39FwtfUZwW
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) August 11, 2023
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Thanks for asking Tom. I’m fine. I live on the big island. We had a few fires on the west side but they were contained before any real damage happened. I feel so bad bad for Maui. My nephew lost his house, truck, all his possessions and his dog is missing. Global warming is real folks.
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Glad you’re OK. What a bummer for your nephew. Don’t know how anybody can say global warming is not real. Lahaina needs help. I hope both sides will agree upon that and do it. Stay safe, man.
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Dang! And you are correct about Climate Change. Probably won’t be a prob for some of us, but our kids. Tell your Nephew to stay strong!
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LakerTom wrote a new post
The more the Lakers focus on two-bigs lineups with Davis next to a stretch five like Wood or defensive five like Hayes, the more I think L.A. must have promised AD could play his preferred four to get him to sign the extension.
Frankly, I can’t think of another reason why the Lakers would continue to push the idea of returning to the two-bigs lineups they used during their championship run in the bubble in 2020 than they promised AD to do it. Anthony Davis has always preferred to play power forward where he has the freedom to play inside or outside and play as few minutes at center as possible to avoid the low post banging and physicality of playing the five.
It’s not like the Lakers traded for Myles Turner or Brook Lopez, proven stretch five centers who would be ideal front court anchors who could space the floor, protect the rim, and allow Anthony Davis to play the five. Yet the Lakers continue to push the two-bigs ideas, despite the fact this is not 2020, James and Davis are not the 3-point shooters they were back in the bubble, and playing two bigs would force LeBron to have guard threes.
But it’s obvious at this point the Lakers are serious about starting another big at center and playing Anthony Davis at power forward. Either they’re convinced two bigs are best or have promised AD he can play the four.
Playing Two Bigs Is All About Anthony Davis!
The Lakers either promised Anthony Davis they’d be playing two-bigs lineups going forward or just decided it would be the best course of action since he clearly prefers playing power forward with another big as center.
The decision to play two bigs signaled the Lakers now believe it’s more important for the newly signed Anthony Davis to play his preferred power forward position instead of the older soon-to-be-retired LeBron James. That’s a needed recognition that now’s the time to go all-in on Anthony Davis who is now the face of the franchise. The Lakers smartly understand their future is now unquestionably linked to optimizing Anthony Davis.
Ultimately, optimizing Anthony Davis is what playing two bigs is all about. The Lakers want Anthony Davis to be happy. They want him to be excited about their style of play. The Lakers want the more versatile version of AD. Now 30-years old, it’s the time to allow AD to move back to the four. While they need shooting, the Lakers’ strength has been offsetting their negative 3-point shooting by winning points-in-the-paint and made free throws.
In the end, the Lakers are gambling they can solve the spacing issues so that starting two bigs will ultimately enable Anthony Davis to reach his true potential and bring multiple additional NBA championships to L.A.
Whom Do The Lakers Want As The Second Big?
The Lakers’ two options to start at the five next to Davis at the four are 23-year old Jaxson Hayes, whom is viewed as a Dwight Howard type defensive oriented center, and 27-year old Christian Wood, who’s a stretch five center.
Right now, the Los Angeles Lakers appear to be moving forward with a plan to start the season with 23-year old Jaxson Hayes starting at five, Anthony Davis sliding down to four, and LeBron James moving down to the three. While the Lakers view him as a defensive shot blocking center, Hayes has upside as a stretch five, hitting 20 of 57 threes for 35.1% season before last while playing just 20.0 minutes per game in 70 regular season games.
The second big the Lakers want to pair Anthony Davis with is free agent center Christian Wood, who averaged 16.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.1 blocks in 25.9 minutes per game shooting 51.5%/37.6%/77.2%. Christian Wood’s reputation for not playing defense and once refusing to re-enter a game after being pulled has resulted in no NBA team being willing to offer him more than just the veteran minimum contract.
That’s why the Lakers just need to remain patient. Unless another team shows interest in signing-and-trading for Christian Wood, the Lakers should patiently wait for him to accept signing with L.A. as best option.
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Playing Two Bigs Is All About Anthony Davis!
The Lakers either promised AD they’d be playing two-bigs lineups going forward or just decided it would be the best course of action since he clearly prefers playing power forward with another big as center.https://t.co/AhyvIP423B pic.twitter.com/ftv1IQe6sQ
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) August 9, 2023
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Whom Do The Lakers Want As The Second Big?
Lakers’ two options to start at five next to Davis at four are 23-year old Jaxson Hayes, whom is viewed as Dwight Howard type defensive center, and 27-year old Christian Wood, who’s a stretch five center. https://t.co/AhyvIP423B pic.twitter.com/gdiMiX6bFB
— LakerTom (@LakerTom) August 9, 2023
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Tom, loved this article. While it is unlikely Austin will ever be a Superstar, a star can still have his jersey retired & make the HOF. But I would not bet against him. He is such a basketball junky that I think he already has the Kobe competition gene. Plus his shooting & playmaking are already such that he just needs more minutes & take more shots to get to the 20-5-5 which will make him a third star. As AK, BK & Mike Trudell said on the Locked on Lakers pod cast on Tuesday & Wednesday, none of them would be surprised if Austin leads the Lakers in minutes played this year, especially if they are trying to protect AD & Bron by limiting their minutes to around 34 & 32 respectively. Austin averaged close to 35 minutes after he started in regular season all the way to WCF, so not unlikely. If he averages 20-5-5 and shoots 50/40/90 or close to it, he IS the 3rd star. I think if he keeps that up he will be on the All-Star game roster by the end of this contract at least once.