Lakerholics

It was five meaningless games in an up-and-down preseason but Lakers fans have to be giddy about the glimpses they’ve seen of what could be the deepest, most talented team in the LeBron James-Anthony Davis era.

Now that the Lakers’ preseason is over except for Thursday’s final tuneup game against the Suns, it’s time to review what we’ve seen and figure out what it means for the team as they prepare for next Tuesday’s road opener. Right now, the odds makers have the Lakers ranked fifth, with far longer odds to win the 2024 NBA championship than the Celtics, Bucks, Nuggets, and Suns, who were the four teams included in the league’s top tier.

While it’s a ridiculously small sample size, Lakers fans should be excited and encouraged about what they saw from this deep and talented roster during the five preseason games. It’s LeBron and AD’s best Lakers team.

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1. Anthony Davis is ready to take the torch from LeBron James

Davis has looked dominant in preseason and should be a prime candidate for both the MVP and DPOY awards, averaging 14.3 points, 6.3 boards, 2.5 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.3 blocks in just 17.0 minutes per preseason game.

Assuming 36 minutes per game, AD’s numbers would be 30.3 points, 12.5 boards, 2.6 assists, 1.7 steals, and 2.8 blocks per game, increases over last year’s 25.9 points, 12.6 boards, 2.6 assists, 1.1 steals, and 2.0 blocks.
Davis has also worked hard to fix his broken jumper and is shooting 54.5% from the field, 50.0% from deep, and 88.9% from the line in preseason versus last year’s 56.3% from field, 25.7% from deep, and 78.4% from line.

The biggest takeaway from this preseason is that Anthony Davis is finally poised to take the torch from LeBron James as the team’s alpha superstar and franchise face who takes the most shots and scores the most points.

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2. Lakers have finally fixed their 3-point shooting problem

This preseason, the Lakers appear to have upgraded their 3-point shooting from the last season. In the five games they’ve played, they’ve made 13.4 threes out of 37.4 attempts per game for 12th best 35.8% from deep.

While the sample size is very small, there’s been no question the Lakers have improved their 3-point shooting. Last season, they made just 10.8 threes out of 31.2 attempts per game, good for 25th best 34.6% from deep.
Sinking 2.6 more threes per game would generate 7.8 more points per game this season over last season, which would be a major improvement that could easily catapult the team up the league’s power rankings.

Just look at the Lakers’ individual players’ 3-point shooting statistics for the preseason. Seven of their projected 10-man rotation are shooting over 35% from deep and five over 45%. The Lakers finally have enough shooting.

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3. Lakers may be deepest and most versatile team in league

While Darvin Ham has not made a formal announcement, Taurean Prince appears to have won the fifth starter job alongside guards D’Angelo Russell, and Austin Reaves and superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Right now, Gabe Vincent, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, Christian Wood, and Jaxson Hayes appear to have the best chance to make the final 10-man rotation with both Max Christie and Cam Reddish still in the mix. The Lakers roster essentially consists of twelve legitimate rotation players and last summer’s first and second round draft picks. There may not be another NBA team that’s as deep and versatile as this Lakers team.

The Lakers have showcased their depth all preseason, competing even when missing multiple stars or starters. Last night, they outplayed Giannis, Dame, and the Bucks without James, Reaves, Vincent, or Vanderbilt.

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4. Lakers may be championship favorites by time playoffs start

Right now, the odds makers have the Lakers as the fifth favorite to win the NBA championship, which is probably realistic. On paper, it’s hard not to rank the Bucks, Celtics, Nuggets, and Suns above the Lakers. For now.

But by the end of the season, the Lakers could easily be on par or better than the four current top tier teams because they have a team full of young veterans just approaching or entering their prime ready to take a big leap. Darvin Ham and his coaching player development oriented coaching staff helped Malik Monk, Dennis Schroder, and Lonnie Walker IV resurrect their games and redeem their brand values under the bright lights of L.A.

Look at what the Lakers have done with Hachimura and Vanderbilt. Hayes. Wood, and Reddish could be next. The Lakers could easily be as good as or better than the four teams above them by the time the NBA playoffs start.

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5. Lakers could end up not making any moves at trade deadline

Right now, the Lakers 10-man rotation of Russell, Reaves, Prince, James, and Davis backed up by Vincent, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, Wood, and Hayes is so deep the Lakers may end up not wanting or needing to make a trade.

The one thing that could swing the Lakers decision makers to not make a move at the trade deadline would be the team playing at a championship level the first half of the season with Russell and Hachimura playing well. While the Lakers have multiple tradable players on team friendly contracts, they would likely need Russell’s and/or Hachimura’s salaries for matching purposes in any deal made to upgrade the roster at the trade deadline.

There’s definitely a scenario where the Lakers as a team and D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura as key rotation players play so well the team decides to stand pat and not make any major moves at the deadline.

Darvin Ham’s new five-out sets will dramatically change how the Los Angeles Lakers play by making it easier to get the ball to Anthony Davis sooner, more often, and where he’ll have space and freedom to attack.

Strategically, five-out sets are positionless basketball since all five players begin behind the 3-point line, which makes it the perfect offensive scheme to accommodate Anthony Davis’ desire to play fewer minutes at center. Tactically, five-out sets give a trailing Anthony Davis the ball where he’s flanked by four 3-point shooters and has options to take a wide open three or beat his man 1-on-1 for an easy layup or dunk or drive-and-dish three.

Better shooters and five-out sets should give the Lakers a chance to reduce the negative 20–25 ppg 3-point shooting differential that forces them to dominate made-free-throws and points-in-the-paint to keep games close.
The Lakers will still run four-out sets when Jaxson Hayes plays beside Anthony Davis but five-out sets will require a stretch big, which is why there is a good chance Christian Wood could emerge as the fifth starter.

While it’s too early to judge the impact of new five-out sets, the Lakers are taking and making a lot more 3-point shots so far this preseason but also suffering a troubling decline in made free throws and points in the paint. The challenge for the Lakers in switching from four-out to five-out sets will be to reduce their negative 3-point scoring differential without impacting their positive made-free-throws and points-in-the-paint differentials.

Let’s listen first to Darvin Ham explain why he wants the Lakers to switch to five-out sets and then look at how the team’s new five-out sets unleash the beast in Anthony Davis and are the perfect fit for the rest of the team.

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Why Darvin Ham Wants to Switch to Five-Out Sets

Darvin Ham is switching from four-out to five-out sets to take advantage of the Lakers’ improved 3-point shooting and accommodate Anthony Davis’ desire to play more power forward and less center during regular season.

Last season, the Lakers played four-out sets with four shooters behind the 3-point line and the fifth player in the dunker spot under the rim because they didn’t have enough proven good 3-point shooters to play five-out sets.
Four-out sets meant that Davis would either get the ball via a pick-and-roll play in the paint or by isolating him on the wing, where he would often be double-teamed. There were times teams could make AD disappear.

By switching to five-out sets, the Lakers can easily get the ball to Anthony Davis earlier in the shot clock, more often during the game, and in a spot where he can deliver the maximum damage as a scorer and playmaker.
The examples shown in the above video show how the five-out sets make it easier to get the ball to Davis with time, space, and freedom to attack the defense and how difficult it is to double him with shooters on the wings.

Darvin Ham has said he would like Anthony Davis to take three 3-point shots per half or six per game going forward. So far this preseason, AD has taken six threes and made three in 26.7 minutes in two preseason games. Last season, AD averaged 17.2 shot attempts and took 1.3 threes per game. While he’s only played limited minutes in two preseason games, Davis is on pace to increase his shot attempts to 22.6 and his threes to 8.0 per game.

Darvin Ham wants to run five-out sets because they are the quickest and easiest way to give Anthony Davis the increased floor spacing, freedom, touches, and shots he needs to become the very best version of himself.

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How Five-Out Sets Unleash Beast in Anthony Davis

Darvin Ham and the Los Angeles Lakers smartly avoided the controversy over whether Anthony Davis plays center or power forward by adopting new five-out half court offensive sets that are essentially positionless.

Once Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office agreed to extend Anthony Davis to be the face of the franchise, Darvin Ham was given responsibility to upgrade the team’s offense to unleash the beast in Anthony Davis.
The result is a positionless five-out set where the AD has the ball at the top of the key, flanked left and right by 3-point shooters on the wing and corner that makes it easier to get AD the ball sooner and more often than before.

We’ve already seen in the two preseason games Anthony Davis has played how effective he is playing the top in the five-out sets. The big difference is how much easier it is to get the ball to him earlier in the 24-second clock. Once there’s no fast break opportunity, the point guard gives the ball to a trailing Davis via a dribble hand-off and he’s ready to shoot or attack at the top of the key with four shooters poised to keep help defenders honest.

Besides getting the ball earlier and more often, Anthony Davis will get an opportunity to be much more of a playmaker in these five-out sets as any help will immediately open up one of his teammates for an open three.
If there’s a weakness in Davis’ game, it’s he doesn’t have the playmaking chops that a Nikola Jokic has, having a career average of only 2.4 assists per game. With five-out sets, AD could have his first 4 assists per game season.

Darvin Ham’s new five-out sets are a major game changer in that they’re going to give Anthony Davis more touches and shots than he’s ever had as a Laker. Those opportunities should unleash the beast in Anthony Davis.

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Why Five-Out Sets Are Perfect for Lakers’ Roster

The Lakers’ switch from four-out sets to five-out sets is not only going to unleash the beast in Anthony Davis but also the beasts in LeBron James, Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, and Christian Wood.

Make no mistake, thanks to the joint leadership and vision of Rob Pelinka and Darvin Ham, the Lakers finally have enough 3-point shooting to run the modern five-out sets that most of the NBA already successfully run.
The NBA today is a drive-and-dish league and the hardest teams to stop or slow down defensively are the teams loaded with dead-eye shooters who can rain threes or attack the paint to dish or score when challenged.

While five-outs are the ideal half-court offensive sets to unleash the beast in Anthony Davis, they’re also a perfect fit for players who can shoot the three ball and put the ball on the floor and get into the paint if challenged. Imagine LeBron James at the head of the five-out surrounded by four lethal 3-point shooters. Or Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, or Christian Wood. Near every Lakers players is a perfect fit for 5-out sets.

Frankly, the impact of the improved 3-point shooting and newly deployed five-out sets has already been easy to see in the Lakers’ three preseason games. Ham has also complemented the new sets with more off ball action. Watching Darvin and his coaching staff, who up to now had earned most of their praise for great progress in the player development area, starting to show their chops in the half court offense X’s and O’s is encouraging.

What we’ve been watching over the past year has been the evolution of a bold, new, modernized and sustainable championship-driven vision Rob Pelinka and Darvin Ham have embraced for the Los Angeles Lakers.

With 2 preseason games in the books and 4 to go, the Lakers’ projected starting lineup and 10-man rotation surrounding superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis for the coming season is slowly starting to take shape.

Darvin Ham has already committed to LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves, and D’Angelo Russell as his starters with Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, and Taurean Prince still competing to be fifth starter. Right now, the Lakers plan to start Davis at center despite his desire to play more minutes at power forward. AD will likely start and close games at the five but play the four alongside Wood in the middle of games.

So let’s take a closer look at what the Lakers’ regular season rotation for guards, forwards, and centers is projected to look like based on what we’ve seen in the first two preseason games and heard from the pundits.

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GUARDS…

Outstanding play in the first two games by D’Angelo Russell and last night’s game by Austin Reaves have solidified the Lakers’ starting backcourt with Gabe Vincent as Russell’s backup and Max Christie as Reaves’ backup.

Those four should get most of the backcourt minutes with Jalen Hood-Schifino and Maxwell Lewis being the third point guard and shooting guard and two-way shooting guard D’Moi Hodge a candidate for last roster spot. Russell is averaging 14.5/1.0/5.5 in 16.0 mpg shooting 61.1/75.0/100.0% and Reaves 18.0/2.0/2.0 in 20.0 mpg shooting 71.4/66.7/100.0%. Vincent is averaging 6.5/1.0/3.0 in 19.7 mpg and Christie 9.0/2.5/0.5 in 20.6 mpg.

There are 96 total backcourt minutes per game to be shared by these four Lakers guards. A reasonable projection would have Reaves playing 30 minutes, Russell 30 minutes, Gabriel 18 minutes, and Christie 18 minutes.

Starting Point Guard: D’Angelo Russell
Backup Point Guard: Gabe Vincent

Starting Shooting Guard: Austin Reaves
Backup Shooting Guard: Max Christie

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FORWARDS…

By the start of the season, Rui Hachimura should be the Lakers’ starting small forward and LeBron James the starting power forward, with Jarred Vanderbilt backing up Rui and Taurean Prince backing up James.

In addition to these four, Anthony Davis will likely play half of his 32 mpg at power forward, reducing the minutes to be shared by the four forwards. Rui taking over the 5th starter role also gives the Lakers a two-big lineup.
Hachimura is averaging 15.5/6.0/1.0 in 20.5 mpg shooting 50.0/42.9/100.0% and James 10.0/3.0/5.0 in 16.9 mpg shooting 37.5/25.0/75.0%. Vanderbilt is averaging 6.0/7.0/1.0 in 20.9 mpg and Prince 7.5/1.0/0.5 in 20.6 mpg.

If Davis plays 16 minutes as a power forward, that would leave 80 minutes for others. A reasonable projection would have James playing 32 minutes, Hachimura 24 minutes, Vanderbilt 12 minutes, and Prince 12 minutes.

Starting Small Forward: Rui Hachimura
Backup Small Forward: Jarred Vanderbilt

Starting Power Forward: LeBron James
Backup Power Forward: Taurean Prince

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CENTERS…

There seems to be little doubt that Anthony Davis will begin the season starting and closing games and halves at center rather than at his preferred power forward position, with Christian Wood his likely backup center.

The Lakers’ objective is to have Anthony Davis divide his time between center and power forward similar to what they did to win it all in 2020.
If AD plays 32 mpg, assume he will spend 16 of those minutes at center.
So far this season, Davis is averaging 14.0/6.0/0.5 in 13.4 mpg and shooting a spectacular 58.8/50.0/83.3%. Wood is struggling but still averaging 7.5/5.0/0.5 in 20.6 mpg while Hayes is averaging 6.5/4.5/2.0 in 17.8 mpg.

If Davis plays 16 minutes at center, that would leave 32 minutes for Wood and Hayes. Assuming Wood improves after a shaky start, a reasonable projection might have Wood at 20 minutes and Hayes at 12 minutes.

Starting Center: Anthony Davis
Backup Center: Christian Wood
Backup Center: Jaxson Hayes

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DEPTH CHART…

Two-Way Players:
-Colin Castleton (Center)
-D’Moi Hodge (Shooting Guard)
-Alex Fudge (Power Forward)

The Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday trades have made it clear the Los Angeles Lakers will need to upgrade their starting lineup, most likely their backcourt, if they want to legitimately contend for the championship.

While it may be too early or too honest for some fans, the reality is the playing field has changed and it’s no longer just the Nuggets whom the Lakers have to seriously contend with but also the Bucks and Celtics.
When you include the Suns, there are now four teams who have better starting lineups and specifically better backcourts than the Lakers, which all but guarantees they will be forced to make a move at the deadline.

The other reality facing the Lakers is D’Angelo Russell is all but gone as he’s the only way to upgrade the team’s backcourt since Austin Reaves has now essentially become untouchable like LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Because recently signed players cannot be traded until after December 15, the Lakers were unable to pursue Jrue Holiday and will have to wait two and a half months before being able to upgrade their starting backcourt.

Since Austin can play both guard positions, the Lakers will be able to target both point guards and shooting guards and will have seven weeks from December 15, 2023 to the February 8, 2024 trade deadline to make a trade.
With James, Davis, and Reaves untouchable, the pressure to perform will mount on players like Russell, Hachimura, and Prince, who earn enough that the Lakers may need to include them to match salaries in a trade.

Let’s look at why the Lakers need a better starting backcourt, who are their best guard and center trade options to upgrade their starting lineup, and if there’s a realistic scenario where the Lakers don’t have to make a big trade.

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Why Do Lakers Need To Upgrade Their Starting Backcourt?

The Los Angeles Lakers’ backcourt of point guard D’Angelo Russell and shooting guard Austin Reaves cannot match the backcourt star power of the Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns, Milwaukee Bucks, or Boston Celtics.

It’s not that Russell and Reaves are not a solid backcourt. Last season, they combined for 32.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists in per game and were both instrumental in helping the Lakers get to the conference finals.
Russell and Reaves’ 32.5/5.3/10.3 per game holds up vs. Murray and KCP’s 30.8/6.7/8.6 but falls short against Beal and Booker’s 61.0/8.4/10.9, Lillard and Middleton’s 47.3/9.0/12.2, or Holiday and Brown’s 45.9/12.0/10.9.

Per the above combined scoring numbers, the Lakers’ backcourt had the firepower to match the Nuggets last season but would have been outscored by 30 ppg vs. the Suns, 16 ppg vs. the Bucks, and 15 ppg vs. the Celtics.
Since Beal, Lillard, and Holiday likely won’t get as many touches and shots on their new teams as on their old teams, the Lakers’ projected negative backcourt scoring deficit won’t be as great as 15 to 30 points per game.

Theoretically, a James and Davis front court could score enough points to match or surpass the 15 to 30 points L.A.’s backcourt would be outscored by the star powered backcourts of the Nuggets, Suns, Bucks, and Celtics.
Winning front court battles with Nikola Jokic of Denver, Kevin Durant of Phoenix, Giannis Antetokounmpo of Milwaukee, and Jayson Tatum of Boston will not be a slam-dunk for the Lakers, especially defensively.

In the end, the Dame and Jrue trades have clearly raised the bar for teams who want to be legitimate contenders for the NBA championship and the Lakers will be forced to pursue a blockbuster midseason trade to catch up.

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Who Are Lakers’ Best Options To Upgrade Starting Guards?

The irony of this offseason is that Jrue Holiday was exactly what the Los Angeles Lakers needed to upgrade their starting lineup, an elite offensive point guard who also was the best perimeter defender in the league.

While they missed out on trading for Holiday, the Lakers will need to add more offensive firepower and better point-of-attack defense to their starting backcourt before the trade deadline to be a legitimate contender.
It’s too early to tell which point guards and shooting guards will be on the trade market but the Lakers will certainly be watching how the six guards in the above photo and their teams perform the first half of the season.

The top three players in the photo— Trae Young, Zach LaVine, and Kyrie Irving —are star players with max contracts who would require serious draft capital plus multiple players besides Russell to match salaries.
The bottom three players in the photo — Buddy Hield, Tyler Herro, and Gary Trent, Jr. — are all quality second level stars and probably more reasonable targets who would not require as much draft capital or matching salaries.

As always, opportunity will determine which direction the Lakers will go when December 15 (or January 15 if a specific target won’t be available until then) rolls around. The top six targets could dramatically change. Ultimately, however, the Lakers are going to need another star to replace LeBron James. Hence the interest in Young, LeVine, and Irving. Watching what Pelinka has done so far, I’d bet more on Hield, Herro, or Trent, Jr.

Bottom line, the Lakers should have some excellent options via a mega midseason trade to upgrade their starting backcourt to better matchup against the Nuggets, Suns, Bucks, and Celtics heading into the playoffs.

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Could Lakers Double Down On Size And Trade For Center?

The Lakers could also decide to double down on size and Anthony Davis’ preference to play power forward and upgrade their starting lineup by trading for a legitimate starting quality NBA center rather than a guard.

While the Lakers believe their signing of Christian Wood could give them the perfect stretch 5 big to pair with Anthony Davis in a two-bigs lineup, they also realize there’s almost no way they could afford to re-sign him.
Wood is also more of a four than five, especially on defense. What the Lakers need to play two bigs is a legitimate two-way starting center who can space the court and protect the rim and play with and without AD.

The Lakers will likely be tracking the above four starting center candidates, including Indiana Pacers’ Myles Turner, Utah Jazz’ Kelly Olynyk, Minnesota Timberwolves’ Karl-Anthony Towns, and Philadelphia 76ers’ Joel Embiid.
The Lakers have long coveted Myles Turner but might be willing to include serious draft capital for him if the deal also included Buddy Hield. That would be exactly the kind of blockbuster deal Pelinka needs to pull off.

Another center the Lakers have long coveted is Kelly Olynyk, whom they would love to add because of his ability to stretch the floor as a big. He’s also attainable since he’s a vet on affordable contract on rebuilding team. Finally, the Lakers would be remiss not to also keep their eye on two max contract modern NBA centers who could find themselves on the trade block in the Timberwolves’ Karl-Anthony Towns and 76ers’ Joel Embiid.

While the Lakers top priority would be to upgrade their backcourt scoring and point-of-attack defense, there’s a chance they could change course and look to upgrade their starting lineup by trading for a new starting center.

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Is There Scenario Where Lakers Don’t Have To Make Trade?

What every Lakers fan who loves this roster and its upside wants to know is whether there’s a way the Lakers could upgrade the roster to championship level without having to make a blockbuster move at the trade deadline?

The answer to that question is yes, there is a possible scenario where the Lakers get an unexpected big boost early in the season by striking gold with some of their promising young players and low risk, high profile projects. Imagine if Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura can parlay their great playoffs and new contracts into candidates for MIP or if Christian Wood and Cam Reddish can redeem their brands like Malik Monk and Lonnie Walker did.

A big part of Rob Pelinka and Darvin Ham’ vision for the Lakers is to be a player development driven organization. They’ve put together the perfect roster for a coaching staff with a strong player development background. Their success in helping young players with experience who haven’t been able to break out like Monk, Walker, and Schroder redeem their games and brands has made the Lakers the mecca for low risk, high reward projects.

The good news is the Lakers will have at minimum two and a half months of play until December 15th before they can make a trade and over four months to make a final decision before the February 8th trade deadline. The Lakers also have two games scheduled against the Nuggets, three against the Suns, two against the Celtics, and none against the Bucks before the trade deadline so they should also have an idea of how they matchup.

While L.A.’s young players will grow and develop into a better team, the Lakers are in full win-now mode now so will need a mega midseason trade to beat Denver, Phoenix, Milwaukee, or Boston for the NBA championship.

While they can’t trade for Jrue Holiday until December 15, the Los Angeles Lakers should consider letting Blazers’ general manager Joe Cronin know what they would be willing to give up for Jrue if Portland were to wait.

The grand prize the Lakers could give the Blazers for waiting to trade Holiday would be their unprotected 2029 first round pick sandwiched between two pick swaps, the same draft capital they received for Dame.
While a half dozen contending teams are interested in trading for Holiday, the Blazers are reportedly seeking at least two first round picks for him. There’s a good chance the Lakers’ offer could be the best the Blazers get.

An unprotected Lakers post-LeBron first round pick is the gold standard for draft capital due to its top-5 potential and the Trailblazers could essentially end up with three of those picks for just waiting two and a half months.
By publicizing their potential offer, the Lakers could establish a market for Jrue Holiday that no other team could be willing or able to match. At worst, the offer would help the Blazers get for more for trading Jrue Holiday.

With Damian Lillard teaming up with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton and Bradley Beal joining Kevin Durant and Kevin Booker, the Lakers likely need to add a third superstar before the deadline to keep up.
Trading for Jrue Holiday to create a Lakers big three with LeBron James and Anthony Davis would immediately catapult the Lakers into the NBA’s latest championship favorites tier along with Bucks, Suns, and Nuggets.

Let’s look at the proposed Jrue Holiday trade and why it’s a win-win for both the Lakers and Blazers, the team’s post-trade depth chart and rotation, and the team’s post-trade salary cap and the impact of a Jrue Holiday extension.

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Jrue Holiday Trade

There’s no available player who’s a better fit for what the Lakers need right now to complement LeBron and AD than Jrue Holiday, who’s 33-years old but has played the best basketball of his career the last three seasons.

But make no mistake, the unprotected 2029 pick and 2028 and 2030 pick swaps the Lakers would give up for 33-year old Jrue Holiday are the draft capital Los Angeles has been saving to replace 38-year old LeBron James. Strategically, the Lakers would not invest the draft capital to trade for Holiday unless they were essentially also willing to re-sign him long term as their third superstar and potential replacement for LeBron James.

Jrue Holiday would give the Lakers the best 3&D point guard in the league, Last year, he averaged 19.3 points, 5.1 boards, 7.4 assists, 1.6 stocks in 32.6 mpg shooting 47.9% from field, 38.4% from deep, and 85.9% from line. Holiday’s last three seasons with the Bucks have been the best of his career and have given him an opportunity to show why he is the best two-way point guard in the league today and worth the investment despite his age.

While playing in Milwaukee the last three seasons, Jrue Holiday averaged 18.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 1.9 stocks in 32.5 mpg while shooting 49.4% from the field, 39.5% from deep, and 80.2% from the line. Defensively, Jrue made the NBA All-Defensive Team each of the last three years. He made All-Defensive 1st Team in 2023 and 2021 and All-Defensive 2nd Team in 2022. He’s now been 1st Team 3 times and 2nd Team 2 times.

There’s an argument pairing the league’s best frontcourt defender with the league’s best backcourt defender could catapult the Lakers into the catbird’s spot when it comes to winning playoff matchups and championships.

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Post-Trade Rotation

The key to the Jrue Holiday trade being a slam dunk winner from the Los Angeles Lakers’ standpoint is being able to trade for the perfect third star to complement James and Davis without giving up Reaves or Hachimura.

The L.A. Lakers new post-trade starting lineup would boast Jrue Holiday at point guard, Austin Reaves at shooting guard, Rui Hachimura at small forward, LeBron James at power forward, and Anthony Davis at center.
While Holiday has not had a great playoff record, there’s no question he would be a game-changing upgrade at point guard over D’Angelo Russell at both ends, especially defensively with his elite point-of-attack prowess.

The Lakers’ primary backups at each position would include Max Christie at point guard, Cam Reddish at shooting guard, Jarred Vanderbilt at small forward, Christian Wood at power forward, and Jaxson Hayes at center. Trading Vincent and Prince would cost the Lakers two proven primary backups but would fortunately also open needed rotation opportunities for Reddish and Hayes, two low risk, high reward players with real potential.

Since the Laker traded three players for Jrue Holiday, they would have an active roster with only twelve players, leaving three open roster spots that could be filled by signing free agents or by promoting two-way players.
Austin Reaves would probably fill the role of backup point guard as well as starting shooting guard but the Lakers could easily look to promote both D’Moi Hodge or Colin Castleton should they have a strong preseasons.

While trading for Holiday could backfire and end up costing the Lakers the draft capital they need to replace James, it also has the potential to bring home at least one and maybe two or three additional NBA championships.

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Post-Trade Salary Cap

There’s no way the Lakers would give up an unprotected first round pick and surrounding pick swaps for Jrue Holiday without tentatively agreeing upon a contract extension to sign and lock him up for three more years.

The above chart lays out the Lakers’ salary cap commitments for the next five years but does not include extensions for LeBron James or Jrue Holiday so the question is what happens should the Lakers extend both players?
Under the new CBA, there are competitive advantages to stay under the $172 million 1st tax apron and $182.5 million 2nd tax apron, which are both projected to increase 10% each season like the $136 million salary cap.

The above chart clearly shows the Lakers would still be able to stay below the 1st and 2nd tax aprons in 2023–24 and 2024–25 if James and Holiday declined their player options and signed extensions to start in 2025–26? Because of the expected 10% cap smoothing built into the new CBA due to the NBA’s new TV contracts, the Lakers should have more than $100 million available from 2025–26 on to cover increased pay for James and Holiday.

When you combine how rapidly the salary cap and tax aprons will grow with the team friendly contracts Rob Pelinka and his team have negotiated, the Lakers are poised to win now and after LeBron’s eventual retirement. Trading for Holiday should not only give LeBron motivation to sign an extension to play two more years with the Lakers but also a realistic shot at winning one or two more championships before he eventually retires.

Trading their unprotected 2029 pick and two pick swaps for 33-year old Jrue Holiday would be a gamble but Holiday is the proven elite two-way veteran point guard the Lakers need to transform this young team to champions.